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Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Monday, April 13
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
John Morgan isn't running for Governor, but you can win $100K for naming his new political party
'I hope we in Florida can kick-start a real third party movement in the United States.'
High school sports top performers from the weekend took no days off
They don't need a break. These 15 high school sports top performers dominated the weekend across the diamond, field and courts. See who made the cut.
Why I Chose Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business
Sarah Brannigan (B’28) why she chose Georgetown to study business, from professors, the professional development and experiential learning opportunities.
NYC Mayor Mamdani touts ‘pothole politics’ wins in first 100 days in shift of focus from campaign
Mayor Zohran Mamdani touted his administration’s early wins at a campaign style rally in Queens Sunday to mark his first 100 days in office.
‘The Pitt’s Noah Wyle Reacts to Supriya Ganesh’s Shocking Exit
Wyle also explained why the decision was made to write Ganesh out of the show.
Matrix Business Systems Builds a Better Way to Manage Print
Education partnership: How a Nebraska-based office technoogy dealer Matrix is redefining how organizations manage print infrastructure.
IRA Financial Named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way
SIOUX FALLS, S.D., April 13, 2026--IRA Financial, a leading provider of self-directed retirement solutions, today announced it has been named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way as part of its 2026 annual Thank You Event. The award recognizes organizations that demonstrate exceptional commitment to supporting the Sioux Empire community through philanthropy, volunteerism, and leadership.
PAHO’s 2025 Country Reports highlight the Region’s progress in health
Washington, D.C., April 10, 2026 (PAHO) — The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) today presented the 2025 Annual Reports of its country offices, detailing the main results of technical cooperation achieved in collaboration with governments and strategic partners across the Region.Each report highlights concrete results, impacts, and stories from the field stemming from PAHO’s technical cooperation tailored to each country’s context and health priorities.
South Business Drive Reconstruction to Begin on Wednesday
Things are about to get a bit more complicated on Sheboygan's south side as reconstruction of South Business D...
SCORE Offers Free Business Mentoring Sessions
Local entrepreneurs and small business owners in Pasadena have a valuable resource at their fingertips with the ongoing SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Sessions. These free and confidential appointments provide individuals with expert guidance on starting, running, or growing a small business, courtesy of SCORE, the nation’s largest network of volunteer business mentors. The sessions are designed to offer personalized advice and strategic insights from experienced professionals. SCORE, which stands for Service Corps of Retired Executives, is a non-profit organization and a key resource partner of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). Its mission is to foster vibrant small business communities through dedicated mentoring and education. The organization comprises a network of seasoned business owners and executives who generously volunteer their time to support the next generation of entrepreneurs. As SCORE states, their mentoring is a “free, confidential service for anyone starting, running, or growing a U.S.-based small business.” These one-hour mentoring sessions are held every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at two branches of the Pasadena Public Library: the Lamanda Park Branch Library and the Santa Catalina Branch Library. Appointments can be conveniently reserved up to 14 days in advance, ensuring that individuals can schedule a time that best suits their needs. This recurring service underscores SCORE’s commitment to continuous support for the local business community, helping them to plan, launch, and grow successfully. Need to Know: The SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Session offers free business guidance. These one-hour appointments are available every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at the Pasadena Public Library’s Lamanda Park Branch (140 S Altadena Drive, Pasadena, CA 91107) and Santa Catalina Branch (999 E Washington Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91104). The service is free. For more information or to book an appointment, visit [https://www.score.org/].
Early voting begins this week. What positions are on the ballot?
Shelby County will effectively have a new set of elected officials after the election; many current representatives are term-limited or seeking other offices.
Who’s the greatest No. 1 pick in WNBA history? Our ranking delivers answers
This year marks the 30th WNBA draft. From Tina Thompson to A'ja Wilson, we've ranked each of the No. 1 overall picks in league history.
Palm Beach County professionals on the move for the week of April 13
Top Palm Beach County business professionals moving up within their industry or standing out in their community.
Why college oversight could get more political
The Trump administration is forging ahead in its quest to rid higher education of “radical left” oversight organizations.
Students 2 Science names new members to board of trustees
Students 2 Science (S2S), a 501(c)(3) organization that inspires and empowers students, welcomed three new members to its board of trustees.
Framingham State has 2 million reasons to rename its science labs
Framingham State University is renaming Hemenway Laboratories after receiving a $2 million donation from a retired professor.
5 live shows bring big‑name entertainment to Northern California
From Bollywood fusion to pop‑punk, reggae and comedy, here some of the top shows coming to Northern and Central California this month.
New law may delay Knoxville elections a year. What do candidates think?
A bill in the Tennessee legislature would force some officeholders to stay in office a fifth year and others to wait their turn.
'Air traffic control' for hospital beds? How it works at Brown Health
A 24/7/365 command center operates like air traffic control for Brown Health's six hospitals, monitoring every patient and bed.
From dumplings to pickleball, check out these new North Jersey shops
Ugly Dumpling, Open Play Pickleball, a health care imaging clinic and a Khaadi fashion store at American Dream make our latest list of new businesses.
Health scores: See which downtown Augusta restaurant nearly failed
A downtown Augusta restaurant barely squeaked by with a 70 health score. Find out why.
Free Press' Miss Hockey winner stayed confident all season long
Essex junior Calleigh Bruyns named the Free Press' Miss Hockey for the 2025-26 season. Bruyns led Essex to the D-I championship game.
Business Briefs April 13, 2025: Business news in the Berkshires and beyond
In light of current events, Greylock’s leadership recognized the importance of awarding funds to organizations dedicated to providing human services.
Michigan U.S. Senate 'primary storm' captivates, but worries Democrats
For decades, Democrats have avoided competitive primary contests to pick the party's nominees for U.S. Senate. That's not the case this year.
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film 'Hope' to be distributed by U.S. indie powerhouse NEON
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film “Hope” will be distributed in North America by the U.S. indie powerhouse distributor NEON, the movie’s co-producer, Plus M Entertainment, said on Monday.
Universities Allied for Essential Medicines advocates for affordable health care
While a vial of insulin takes as little as $2 to manufacture, it can cost consumers $250 in the United States. Universities Allied for Essential Medicines, an international advocacy organization that has chapters at universities including UCLA, raised awareness about medication unaffordability during its annual North American conference at the Neuroscience Research Building from April 3 to 5.
Paul W. Smith: Are friends avoiding political talk about Trump and Iran?
A childhood friend's note sparks a question: Are people avoiding political discussions about Trump and Iran with friends?
MSU hosts Out of the Darkness Campus Walk for mental health awareness
Michigan State University students gathered this morning to raise mental health awareness.
AVAC: Abrupt shutdown of US global health supply chain raises risks for HIV, TB and malaria programs
Two hundred and fifty civil society organizations signed on to a letter to the US Secretary of State calling for immediate reversal of this decision.
MSU Science Festival hosts STEAM Expo weekend
Michigan State University is holding its annual Science Festival throughout the month.
Watch highlights from the Coevnant Health Knoxville Marathon
More than 6,500 took part in the two days of races with more than 4,000 on the Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon course on April 12, 2026, in Knoxville, Tennessee.
Yankees Social Media Spotlight: At Least Jeter’s Happy
Derek Jeter’s Michigan Wolverines won the NCAA Men’s National Championship. Nothing else of note happened this week.
Analysis: Rogers still has more to prove
Morgan Rogers is attracting a lot of attention and the growing expectation is he will leave Aston Villa in the summer. Villa will likely need to sell a star player, regardless of whether they qualify for the Champions League, and Rogers is their best asset - especially with Boubacar Kamara out injured. An impressive World Cup would also strengthen Villa's hand but the England forward needs to show more of a clinical nature throughout the pitch.
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
JPMorganChase Partners With Sports Legends to Help Athletes Master Their Money
Learn more about JPMorganChase's partnership with sport legends in this sponsored article by JPMorganChase.
Maizie Clarke Turned Illustrations Into a Thriving Business
Maizie Clarke is transforming the way we see custom merchandise, one watercolor brushstroke at a time. 🎨✨ What began as a kitchen-table side hustle in 2016 has grown into a thriving wholesale business, providing custom illustrated tea towels, ceramics, and scarves to museum shops and distilleries across the country. 🏛️🧣
Virginia Business photographer wins Best in Show
Virginia Business won nine awards in the Virginia Press Association‘s 2025 News & Advertising Contest, including a Best in Show award for Specialty Photography to contributing photographer Norm Shafer, the state organization announced during its April 11 annual awards banquet held at The Virginian hotel in Lynchburg. Shafer won the VPA Best in Show award […]
Trump says gas prices could be same or 'a little bit higher' before midterms
One of the sticking points in the negotiations held in Islamabad has been Iran's stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz.
James Uthmeier gets endorsement from Florida Police Benevolent Association
Police organization representing 30K cops in Florida says Uthmeier is committed to law and order.
Trey McKenney discusses game-sealing shot in National Championship
At the national championship celebration, Michigan Basketball G Trey McKenney discussed his game-sealing shot vs UConn and how he “blacked out” in the process:
Why Did Gretchen Whitmer Go Soft on Trump?
The Michigan governor doesn’t sound like “Big Gretch” anymore.
Early data promising on RI's evolving behavioral health model
Rhode Island's certified community behavioral health clinics are showing promising results, increasing access and improving outcomes, the author says.
Michigan group spotlights Black Maternal Health Week and the risks Black women face giving birth
Black women are 3 to 4 times more likely than their white counterparts to die of childbirth-related complications. The disparity is unchanged even when factoring in education and income.
Green Eats healthy cafe opens in Glen Cove
The owners are bullish on vegetables and whole grains, organic wherever possible.
Vote for Girls Athlete of the Week for April 4-10 presented by the Vance Law Firm
Cast your vote for the Montgomery Advertiser's Girls Athlete of the Week for April 4-10 presented by the Vance Law Firm.
The Daily Hilario: Sunday
Your daily dose of off-topic shenanigans
Young Republicans more skeptical of Iran war, dividing Trump base
Even within Trump’s GOP base, cracks are showing when it comes to the Iran conflict. Younger Republicans are much less likely to support the war.
April baseball means snowflakes and very brave parents
Attending spring sports games in upstate New York often means cold weather. Here's how to stay warm and entertained.
Michigan’s strong third inning helps secure win over MSU
EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) – Michigan State’s late comeback fell short against rival Michigan, as the Wolverines came away with the 6-4 win. The win on Saturday was the Wolverines’ fifth straight. Nick Williams hit an RBI single to right field in the second inning, allowing Ryan McKay to score and give MSU an early 1-0 […]
Insider: Why are politicians cursing so much lately?
“I think that it is simply because it’s accepted,” one political science professor said of the trend of increased public cursing by politicians.
Denver beats Wisconsin 2-1 for its 11th national title and 3rd in 5 years
Denver's Johnny Hicks continued his stellar play by making 29 saves, just two days after a personal-high 49 against Michigan.
Plymouth Maple Fest sheds light on the maple syrup business
People from across the Plymouth community gathered on Saturday for the annual Maple Fest, which celebrates hand-made maple syrup across Sheboygan County.
Finley: Trump's college sports order is an overreach
President's executive order on transfer portal, NIL has him meddling where he doesn't belong.
Our View: Michigan must stop exporting its mental health crisis
Michigan is sending children hundreds of miles away for mental health treatment because it has failed to build the capacity to care for them at home.
To the editor: Target Chicago to draw new business
With the sheer number of economic development agencies and organizations operating in our region, why aren’t we aggressively targeting businesses in the ...
Columbus organization hosts free Black maternal health expo
The Columbus, Georgia Chapter of Jack & Jill of America held its first-ever Black Maternal Health Expo this morning at Comer Gym.
RESULTS: 5K Race Winners at 2026 Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon
KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (WATE) — Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon weekend is underway! The first day of races began Saturday evening with Covenant Health Kids Run the 5K race. The 5K race began Saturday…
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Laurel: Making a hit at the school science fair
In Brian Nelson's Laurel cartoon, our girl's entry in the school science fair makes a considerable hit.
Tennessee softball ace Karlyn Pickens throws no-hitter in Game 1 win at Kentucky
Tennessee softball ace Karlyn Pickens threw a no-hitter in the Lady Vols' 5-0 win over Kentucky in Game 1 on April 11. Pickens had 12 strikeouts.
What the NC Azalea Festival Street Fair looked like in Wilmington
The N.C. Azalea Festival Street Fair in Wilmington featured live entertainment, a performing arts stage, children's activities and vendors.
U.S. Moves to Deport Son of Prominent Figure in Iranian Revolution
Federal agents arrested a man whose mother served as a spokeswoman for the Islamist embassy captors during the hostage crisis that began in 1979.
See inside the first night of Hondo Rodeo: Cowboys, ropers, Lynyrd Skynyrd take on NOLA
This country extravaganza had it all.
Who were Montgomery area high school sports top performers for April 6-10
A list of this week's top performers in high school sports in the Montgomery area from games played Monday through Friday, April 6-10.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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