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Chartbook 449: Voldemort on Threadneedle street. The Bank of England and the "haunted house" of English politics.

Imagine the scene: In some Harry Potter version of 21st-century London, a group of deathless UK Treasury officials gathered from across the last century huddle over warm pints and glasses of Chardonnay. Around the table there are officials from the 1920s, the 1930s, the 1970s, 2022 and today. Inevitably, in May 2026, the subject of conversation is the disintegration of the current Labour government. Despite its huge majority in parliament, it has been reduced to tatters by catastrophic local election result. These exposed the fact that rather than having a government with a clear popular majority, the UK is like most other modern societies divided into 5 segments each of which commands between 26 and 16 percent of the vote. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the leadership at Nos 10 and 11 Downing Street - where the Prime Minister and the Chancellor (Treasury Secretary) work - seem paralyzed. They are caught between mounting discontent over unfairness and the cost of living, and tough fiscal strictures that push them into making unpopular spending decisions. In the London pub, the Treasury officials from across the ages, can barely hide their satisfaction at the latest display of democratic politics caught in the vice-grip of financial logic. “Remember the mur d’argent and the banker’s ramp?” “Just like yesterday!” There are smirks around the table. Then the representative of 2026 pipes up: “One thing you have to say about the current lot (referring to the latest hapless Labour government), you don’t have to teach them about the bond market!” There is a murmur of ascent from the Treasury Mandarins. The trauma of the fiscal crisis of September-October 2022 sits deep. Back then, in the final stages of Tory decay, a ‘mini budget’ that challenged fiscal orthodoxy led to a brief but fierce panic in one of the oldest government bond markets in the world (aka gilt market). Now all you have to do is to mention the “bond market” to hush debate. [ Paul Mason@paulmasonnews In the name of public service, and as ex-economics editor of BBC Newsnight, I offer to do a zoom call, tonight, with any Labour MP who wants to understand why bond markets do not "fall into line" with governments. 1/ 3:57 PM · May 12, 2026 · 466K Views 224 Replies · 674 Reposts · 3.93K Likes ](https://x.com/paulmasonnews/status/2054229532404519082?s=20) “And the funny thing is”, the young man in the huddle continues, “they don’t even want to talk about … ”. There is a sudden hush. Significant looks are exchanged around the table. About? One of the senior figures puts down his glass with a decisive “clink”. He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named has entered their thoughts. Meanwhile, a few miles away in a grubby pub in Bloomsbury, two conspirators from the camp of Critical Macrofinance huddle over cans of low-alcohol IPA. They look at each other and blurt out loud: “The Bank!” “Everyone in the bloody Labour party is talking about the bond market. But why aren’t they even mentioning … the Bank of England!?” “Why is no one talking about Voldemort?” In Paul Mason’s blogpost, after much chest-thumping about basic fiscal logic, the basic point about the Bank of England is buried in the fine print at #3 in his list of suggestions as to what a radical Labour government might actually be able to do! [ Conflict & Democracy Down with the bond market! Down with gravity! It may seem unfair to focus on Labour MP Paula Barker for her off-the-cuff assertion that the bond market would have to “fall in line” with Andy Burnham, should he replace Keir Starmer as prime minister. But Burnham himself told the New Statesman that Labour had to “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets… Read more 2 days ago · 100 likes · 3 comments · Paul Mason ](https://htsf.substack.com/p/down-with-the-bond-market-down-with?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web) Back in Bloomsbury they shake their heads and ask: “Didn’t we learn anything from the Eurozone crisis?” Meanwhile, as if summoned to the conversation by some higher force, the “pink pages” announce: “The days of ultra-cheap government borrowing have come to an end” and Martin “Whizzard” Wolf publishes the graph of the season Look at the UK in 2026, perilously positioned on the upper edge of the pack. No wonder no one in London needs any lessons about the “bond market”. But, look again. Imagine how they feel in Rome. What is London’s nightmare in 2026? The nightmare is that you end up like Italy in the early 2010s during the Eurozone crisis. Once comfortably situated in the middle of the pack, watching with horror as your ten-year yields explode to 7 percent and “spreads” become a national nightmare. One of the largest economies in Europe, a founding member of the euro, stigmatized. But the message of the Italian experience is ambiguous. After all, the stigma didn’t last. In 2026, Italy borrows at rates lower not only than the UK but the US. The US, which, as everyone knows, enjoys the “exorbitant privilege” of being the issuer of reserve, safe asets. What kind of magic is this? How did Italy, in the space of fifteen years, go from being good, to bad and back again? Which brings us back to our dissident friends in their Bloombury boozer and their memories of the Eurozone crisis. Italy never was Britain - with its ongoing fiscal deficits. Without interest payments, on primary balance, from 2000 to 2020 Italy ran a tight fiscal ship. Even in 2008 it barely went into deficit and when it was being put on the rack in the early 20210s its primary surplus matched that of austere Germany. So, what happened? How did it end up stigmatized? Of course Italian politics didn’t help. Berlusconi was at the helm and he had legal issues. But amongst friends in the Bloomsbury pub, Berlusconi is a sideshow, the name we whisper to each other is “Trichet”. From 2004 to 2011 the ECB was headed by Jean-Claude Trichet, ex of the French Treasury, more German than the Germans. After 2009 as the news of the Greek fiscal disaster broke, the European bond markets wento into panic mode and Trichet began a brutal game of cat and mouse. Between 2009 and 2011, Trichet intervened in the bond market to help, only when he thought he had compliance with austerity. When he thought they were uncooperative, he withdrew. In the summer of 2011, he even made direct suggestions to his Italian counterparts in Rome, as to how Italy should be governed. It was this cat and mouse game that drove the bond markets crazy and exposed Italy to a violent squeeze. When Mario Draghi took over the ECB at the end of 2011 and declared “whatever it takes”, the pressure on Italy, gradually eased. It is that starring role that has made Draghi into the towering figure in European politics that he remains today. So now you see why voices in London hush when it comes to the Bank of England. “The bond market” isn’t an irresistible objective force like the weather or an avalanche. It can appear like that. But that depends on the way it is being handled, or not handled by the central bank. Which is why the silence about the Bank of England in London right now is so significant. If you think this all sounds a bit fishy, coming from a left-liberal Keynesian like myself, well, let me introduce you to Robin Brooks, who, to put it mildly, plays on a different quidditch team to me. Here, from the position of a fiscal hawk is Robin’s celebratory account of the Bank of England’s role since 2022; In October 2022, at the height of the bond market blow-up in the UK, something incredible happened. Governor Andrew Bailey told British pension funds the Bank of England would end its support program for the country’s fragile gilt market, drawing a line under how much help the central bank was willing to give to exposed pension funds and - implicitly - the government. By the end of that week, Kwasi Kwarteng - the finance minister - had resigned. Prime Minister Liz Truss would soon follow. This episode is so incredible because it contrasts with what happened in the Euro zone earlier that year. Bond markets in Spain and Italy were under pressure amid high inflation and rising interest rates. In the middle of this, Mario Draghi - Italy’s Prime Minister - resigned, compounding pressure on bond markets of high-debt countries on the Euro periphery. Unlike the Bank of England, the ECB caved. It bought Italian and Spanish government bonds in an effort to cap yields and introduced a new tool that signaled to markets it might do such caps more frequently going forward. Faced with pressure on bond markets, the ECB capitulated to political pressure from high-debt countries like Italy and Spain. The Bank of England stood its ground and toppled the Truss government. This kind of thing has long-lasting consequences. It means markets price a higher probability of yield caps in the Euro zone, which keeps Italian and Spanish yields artificially low, while markets feel free to push up UK yields without fear of central bank intervention. As I flagged in yesterday’s post, this means you really can’t compare UK yields to those of other high-debt countries. The UK looks worse, but only because its central bank isn’t interfering with markets. There’s more to this than just that 2022 episode. The Bank of England has also been much more aggressive in its quantitative tightening (QT) than other central banks. If one motivation for quantitative easing (QE) is to lower bond yields - especially longer-dated ones - then it stands to reason QT pushes yields up. The left chart above shows a four-quarter moving average of UK government debt issuance (black line) in percent of GDP and which sectors absorb this issuance, including the Bank of England (blue bars). The right chart above compares the Bank of England’s accumulation or run-off of government bonds (blue line) with that of other central banks, where this blue line is the same as the blue bars in the left chart. The Bank of England was quicker and more aggressive than other central banks in downsizing its bond holdings, so UK yields will have risen more than elsewhere also for this reason, not just because of Governor Andrew Bailey’s remarks in October 2022. Back in October 2025, after a conversation in New York with friends in British politics, my sense of dysphoria was such that I raised the issue of the Bank of England openly in the FT Since 2008, the UK has slid into a deep economic and political predicament. Growth has stagnated to a degree far worse even than in the 1970s. The Tory leadership’s wager on the Brexit referendum spectacularly backfired, leaving the UK isolated from Europe and at the mercy of its special relationship with the US, many of whose political class regard the UK as a basket case. After years of austerity, the Labour party lurched to the left and then back to the centre. The Tory party has been eclipsed by the populist nationalism of Reform. Any British government should be worrying first and foremost about how to restart growth. Instead, Keir Starmer is beset by shades of the gilt market panic triggered by the Liz Truss government in 2022. The debt level is higher than in recent years, but there is no cause for panic. UK debt is at far from critical levels and of long duration. Whether you want to “take back control” or launch progressive economic policy, a democracy dogged by fear of bond market vigilantes is unhealthy. In a country that is a monetary sovereign, this climate points to one thing: a disconnect between the government and the central bank. Since 1997, the independence of the Bank of England has become a sacred cow. But independence is what you make of it. And in the wake of the gilt market crisis of September 2022, relations between the Bank of England and the UK government need a reset. In normal times, there is no doubt that an inflation-targeting independent central bank can serve a country well. But since 2008, the UK and other advanced economies have not had the luxury of such simple problems. To their credit, central bankers around the world have not stood on orthodoxy. After 2008, the US Federal Reserve rescued the global banking system and, through quantitative easing, it stabilised the Treasury market in the face of huge deficits. In Europe, things were trickier. Both the Bank of England under Mervyn King and Jean-Claude Trichet’s European Central Bank played cat and mouse with national governments. This was a high stakes wager that between 2010 and 2012 escalated bond market tension and triggered a disastrous turn to austerity. Shaken by the impact of those shocks, their successors, Mark Carney and Mario Draghi adopted a more protective stance (assuming you were not the government of Greece). Recall that Draghi’s legendary slogan, “Whatever it takes”, was uttered to face down the City of London’s bond vigilantes. In 2015, Draghi launched QE — financial repression by another name. In 2016, Carney used the authority of the Bank of England to stabilise markets following the vote for Brexit, an exemplary demonstration of how central banks can underpin democratic choice, even when those choices are wrong headed. All these were independent central bankers steeped in the best practice of the 1990s, who recognised that historic crises demanded radical action. It was the price surge of 2021-2023 that poisoned the atmosphere. Though the shock came mainly from the supply side, central banks ended up in the dock. Nowhere more so than in the UK. The Bank of England reacted with aggressive normalisation. Faced with a cost of living crisis, the governor called for workers to accept real wage cuts. In early 2022, as gas prices were at record levels and Russia’s army was poised to invade Ukraine, the Bank adopted a stringent programme of quantitative tightening, elevating interest rates. When the Truss government got itself in trouble, the Bank took almost a week to come to the rescue. Rather than enacting a charade of normality, it is time to recognise that in 2025 the UK faces a period of historic transition. To meet this challenge, what is needed is a new concordat with the Bank. This should not ignore inflationary pressures or the long-run trajectory of debt, but should affirm the priority of reviving investment-led growth. One could follow Donald Trump in demanding interest rate cuts. The Bank could shadow the ECB in its commitment to capping Eurozone yields. But the top priority should be to lay the ghost of September 2022. The Bank’s slowing of QT last month was a concession. An immediate and complete end would send the right signal. Such a concordat will not by itself restore sanity to politics, solve the housing problem or rebuild the NHS. But it would help to lift the fear of bond market crisis, which is paralysing the effort by democratic politicians to answer the fundamental questions facing the nation. Now, that call for a new concordat between government and Bank of Englands seems more urgent than ever. The problem is that in October 2025, Starmer still had some authority. Today the government is in tatters. And when you are the “under the harrow” - to echo a phrase of Montagu Norman’s from the 1920s - it is the worst possible time to consider institutional change. To make general arguments at a time of crisis can only seem like special pleading rather than a general argument for long-term change. The same, unfortunately, is also true for the other basic institutional reform that Britain urgently needs i.e. the abolition of the out-dated first past the post electoral system and its replacement by a moderated form of proportional representation. And thirdly - whilst we are saying the quiet parts out loud - Britain needs to reopen the question of EU membership. What the local election results of 2026 show is that this remains a key issue. And what they also show is that there is a clear majority that would favor a return. Until these basic features of Britain’s political economy are addressed the country will carry on its politics as though in a haunted house, governed by governments that lack actual majorities, conjuring up false constraints whilst ignoring the real ones. This one is for DG and MI. I love writing the newsletter. If you enjoy it too and fancy buying me a coffee once a month, you know what to do. Click below! Subscribe

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May 15 • 3:04 AM EDT • Politics • adamtooze.substack.com
Scientists discover vitamin B2 may help cancer cells survive

Scientists have uncovered a surprising dark side to vitamin B2: it may help cancer cells stay alive. The vitamin supports a cellular shield that protects tumors from ferroptosis, a form of programmed cell death linked to cancer suppression. In lab tests, researchers used a vitamin B2-like compound called roseoflavin to break down that protection and trigger cancer cell death.

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May 14 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Scientists Create “Living” Materials That Crawl, Walk, and Dig on Their Own

Physicists studying active matter — materials that can use their own internal energy to respond to forces — have uncovered surprising behaviors that challenge conventional ideas in mechanics.

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May 14 • 11:12 AM EDT • Science • scitechdaily.com
In Thailand, Buddhism Is Twinned With Political Power

In Thailand, where it’s the state-sanctioned religion, practices have proved to be surprisingly mutable.

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May 14 • 5:01 AM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 13 • 8:15 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Islanders star Matthew Schaefer’s emotional reaction to winning Calder Trophy

Surprisingly absolutely no one, New York Islanders rookie sensation Matthew Schaefer is the recipient of the 2025-26 Calder Trophy.

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May 13 • 2:44 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Review: Indiana Jones and The Great Circle Arrives Surprisingly Intact on Switch 2

With image quality that eclipses Xbox Series S.

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May 13 • 1:00 PM EDT • Technology • digitalfoundry.net
2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 13 • 7:15 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 12 • 8:17 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Cacti are evolving shockingly fast and scientists just learned why

Cacti may look like slow, stubborn desert survivors, but they’re actually evolving at lightning speed. Scientists studying more than 750 cactus species discovered that what really drives the explosion of new cactus species isn’t flower size or specialized pollinators, but how quickly cactus flowers change shape over time. The finding overturns a long-standing idea dating back to Darwin and reveals deserts as surprisingly dynamic ecosystems where evolution is happening fast.

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May 12 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Scientists create detailed map of odor receptors

Researchers uncovered surprising details about how smell receptors are organized in the nose.

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May 12 • 11:20 AM EDT • Health • nih.gov
2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 12 • 9:29 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Scientists discover surprising new way to control light

In a breakthrough that could transform medical testing, data transmission and future quantum technologies, scientists at the University of Witwatersrand and the University of East Anglia have uncovered a hidden property of light that allows it to twist, spin and behave differently - without mirrors, materials or special lenses.

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May 12 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • eurekalert.org
2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 11 • 7:55 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 11 • 3:26 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 11 • 5:23 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Scientists stunned as volcano cloud destroys methane in the atmosphere

A colossal underwater volcano in the South Pacific may have revealed a surprising new weapon against climate change. After the 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai, scientists detected enormous amounts of formaldehyde in the atmosphere — a telltale sign that methane, one of the planet’s most powerful greenhouse gases, was being destroyed. Researchers now believe volcanic ash mixed with salty seawater and sunlight created reactive chlorine particles that effectively “cleaned up” some of the methane released by the eruption itself.

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May 9 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Canon EOS R6 V & RF 20-50mm f/4L PZ: Specs, Pricing, and Launch Date

Canon is set to add an all new video camera segment on May 13 with the EOS R6 V and a unique 20-50mm Power Zoom lens. From 7K RAW video to a surprising $2499 price point, here is everything we know.

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May 9 • 7:48 AM EDT • Technology • canonrumors.com
Ice age humans in China crafted surprisingly advanced stone tools 146,000 years ago

Scientists in China discovered that ancient humans were making surprisingly advanced stone tools during a harsh ice age 146,000 years ago. The tools, created by Homo juluensis, show careful planning and complex thinking rather than simple stone-chipping. Researchers dated the site using tiny calcite crystals inside animal bones, revealing the tools are much older than expected. The discovery challenges the idea that human creativity only thrives in easy, prosperous times.

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May 9 • 6:24 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Google starts rolling out big Snapseed 4.0 update for Android

In June of 2025, Google surprisingly released a major update for Snapseed after a long dormancy. After confirming at the...

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May 8 • 1:07 PM EDT • Technology • 9to5google.com
New obesity discovery rewrites decades of fat science

Scientists have uncovered a surprising secret hidden inside fat cells that could reshape how we think about obesity and metabolic disease. A protein called HSL, long believed to simply release stored fat when the body needs energy, turns out to have a second job deep inside the nucleus of fat cells—helping keep those cells healthy and balanced. Even more surprising, people and mice missing this protein don’t become obese as expected; instead, they lose fat tissue in a dangerous condition called lipodystrophy.

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May 8 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Scientists discover a new way to prevent gum disease without killing good bacteria

Scientists have uncovered a surprising way to influence the bacteria living in our mouths — not by killing them, but by interrupting how they “talk” to each other. Researchers found that dental plaque bacteria use chemical signals to coordinate growth, and by blocking those signals, they were able to encourage healthier bacteria while reducing disease-linked microbes tied to gum disease. Even more intriguing, the bacterial conversations changed depending on oxygen levels above and below the gums, revealing an entirely new layer of complexity inside the mouth.

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May 7 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Scientists make stunning discovery that could change our understanding of the Universe

Scientists may have uncovered a surprising secret behind why life exists at all. A new study suggests that the Universe’s fundamental constants — the deep physical rules that govern everything from atoms to stars — appear to sit within an incredibly narrow “sweet spot” that allows liquids to flow properly inside living cells. Even tiny shifts in these constants could make blood too thick, water too sticky, or cellular motion impossible, potentially wiping out life as we know it.

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May 7 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Surprising Signs of an Atmosphere Around a Tiny World, Billions of Miles Away

A gradual dimming and brightening when a star passed behind it suggested the mini-Pluto was wrapped in a thin layer of air.

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May 7 • 10:41 AM EDT • Science • nytimes.com
Ohio AG Yost's surprise resignation plans follows dashed governor bid

Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost is expected to resign from his job as the state's top cop, a surprising shake-up in state politics.

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May 7 • 10:24 AM EDT • Politics • dispatch.com
An extinct human species made surprisingly creative butchery tools

Our cousins ‘Homo juluensis’ knew how to adapt in the face of an ice age.

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May 7 • 7:00 AM EDT • Science • popsci.com
Scientists accidentally discover DNA that breaks the rules of life

A routine experiment with a new single-cell DNA sequencing method turned into a surprising scientific twist when researchers stumbled upon a bizarre genetic code in a microscopic pond organism. Instead of following the near-universal “rules” of life, this newly identified protist rewrites how genes signal their end. This unexpected discovery challenges long-held assumptions about how genetic translation works and hints that nature may be far more flexible—and mysterious—than scientists realized.

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May 6 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
2026 Truist Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the Truist Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 6 • 7:30 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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2026 Truist Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the Truist Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 5 • 8:06 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 PGA Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors

Mike McClure's model has simulated the PGA Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA best bets

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May 5 • 9:45 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Stanford’s new chip boosts light 100x with surprisingly low energy

Researchers at Stanford have developed a compact optical amplifier that dramatically boosts light signals using very little power. By recycling energy inside a looping resonator, the device achieves strong amplification with minimal noise and wide bandwidth. Its efficiency and small size mean it could run on batteries and be integrated into consumer electronics. This breakthrough could enable faster communications and more powerful optical technologies.

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May 5 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Scientists boost strawberry flavor and nutrition without changing growth

A surprising genetic twist shows that boosting a seemingly ordinary “housekeeping” gene can dramatically improve fruit quality without any trade-offs. By increasing the activity of a tRNA-related gene in strawberries, researchers unlocked richer color, stronger aroma, and higher levels of health-boosting compounds like anthocyanins and terpenoids. Even more striking, these enhancements came with zero impact on plant growth, fruit size, or sweetness—avoiding the usual downsides of metabolic tinkering.

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May 5 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
The dark side of weight loss drugs: Ozempic's surprising hidden cost

GLP-1 weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are often celebrated as game-changing solutions—but new research reveals a surprising social twist. People who lose weight using these medications may actually face more judgment than those who lose weight through diet and exercise—or even those who don’t lose weight at all. The stigma seems rooted in a perception that these drugs are an “easy way out,” creating a double bind where individuals are judged both for their weight and for how they choose to manage it.

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May 5 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
This tiny outer Solar System world has an atmosphere. It shouldn’t

Astronomers have spotted something surprising in the far outer Solar System—a faint, short-lived atmosphere clinging to a tiny icy world that shouldn’t be able to hold one at all. The object, called 2002 XV93, is far smaller than Pluto, yet observations during a rare stellar alignment revealed its presence through a subtle dimming of starlight. Even more puzzling, calculations suggest this atmosphere should vanish within about 1,000 years unless it’s constantly being replenished.

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May 5 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Scientists Found a Surprising State of Matter That's Breaking Dimensional Rules

A new kind of anomalous Hall effect produces transdimensional matter.

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May 5 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • popularmechanics.com
iOS 26.5 Coming Soon With These New Features

iOS 26.5 is expected to be released this May, following more than a month of beta testing. The update is relatively minor so far, which is not too surprising given that Apple is starting to shift its focus towards iOS 27. iOS 26.5 lays the groundwork for end-to-end encryption for RCS in the Messages app and ads in the Apple Maps app, and it will include a new Pride wallpaper and a few other changes. Below, we outline all of the notable additions in iOS 26.5.

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May 4 • 11:40 AM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com
This simple amino acid supplement greatly reduces Alzheimer’s damage

A new study suggests a surprisingly simple compound could help fight Alzheimer’s disease. Researchers found that arginine—an inexpensive amino acid already considered safe—can reduce the buildup of toxic amyloid proteins in the brain, a hallmark of the disease. In animal models, oral arginine not only lowered harmful protein deposits but also improved behavior and reduced brain inflammation.

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May 4 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Weight loss drug Ozempic linked to lower depression and anxiety risk

GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide—best known for treating diabetes and driving weight loss under the brand names Ozempic and Wegovy—may also deliver a surprising mental health boost. In a massive study tracking nearly 100,000 people over more than a decade, researchers found that these medications were linked to significantly fewer psychiatric hospital visits and sick days.

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May 3 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Analyst reveals surprising choice for favorite Chiefs draft selection

This might not be everyone's choice.

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May 3 • 6:23 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Sixers fans crash Celtics postgame show, upsetting Brian Scalabrine

The Philadelphia 76ers finally got one over on the Boston Celtics by winning Game 7 at the Garden, and Sixers fans weren’t going to let anyone forget about it, especially Brian Scalabrine. The Sixers came back from a 3-1 series deficit in surprising circumstances to win their first series against their Eastern Conference rivals since…

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May 3 • 10:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
The creepy feeling in old buildings might have a surprising cause

A hidden force may be quietly shaping how you feel—and you’d never even know it. Infrasound, an ultra-low-frequency vibration below the range of human hearing, is everywhere from traffic to old buildings. In a small experiment, people exposed to it became more irritable, less engaged, and even showed higher levels of the stress hormone cortisol—despite having no idea it was present. The findings suggest our bodies can “sense” these vibrations without conscious awareness, potentially explaining eerie sensations in places like basements or supposedly haunted buildings.

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May 3 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
NFL Draft Expert Reassures Bears Fans About Polarizing Pick

An NFL expert defends a surprising third-round tight end selection, revealing strategic foresight for the Bears' future personnel and blocking needs.

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May 3 • 7:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Gatorade getting a rebrand targeting non-athletes

Sixty years after it invented sports drinks, Gatorade is making a surprising pivot: It’s no longer focusing primarily on athletes. PepsiCo, Gatorade’s parent company, says the brand wants to broaden

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May 3 • 2:00 AM EDT • Business • telegraphherald.com
🚨 River’s surprise squad for the Tucumán clash

River will face Atlético Tucumán this Sunday at 6:30 p.m. in the final matchday of the tournament’s regular phase. With qualification already secured, Eduardo Coudet unveiled a surprising squad ...

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May 2 • 9:40 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, post time: Surprising picks by proven horse racing handicapper

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby? The annual Run for the Roses takes place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET

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May 2 • 6:10 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
The Moon Illusion Still Hasn't Been Solved After Thousands Of Years

NASA takes a surprisingly chill approach to the dilemma.

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May 2 • 5:00 PM EDT • Science • iflscience.com
2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, post time: Surprising picks by proven horse racing expert

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby? The annual Run for the Roses takes place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET

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May 2 • 4:48 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, post time: Surprising picks from proven horse racing expert

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby? The annual Run for the Roses takes place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET

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May 2 • 2:20 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, post time: Surprising picks from elite horse racing expert

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby? The annual Run for the Roses takes place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET

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May 2 • 11:43 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, post time: Surprising picks by elite horse racing expert

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby? The annual Run for the Roses takes place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET

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May 2 • 9:01 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
What a modest town hall explains about rural America’s political gap

Ten strangers — a mix of conservative and liberal — gathered for a discussion about the rural-urban divide. They came together on a surprising solution.

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May 2 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Column: Let’s get nostalgic

After a March that was surprisingly robust when it came to movies with actual original ideas, April 2026 brought us back to the one thing modern movies do so well:

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May 2 • 5:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • thesheridanpress.com
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2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, race date: Surprising picks by elite horse racing expert

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby? The annual Run for the Roses takes place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET

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May 1 • 10:00 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
2026 Kentucky Derby predictions, horses, odds, race date: Surprising picks by horse racing expert

When is the 2026 Kentucky Derby? The annual Run for the Roses takes place Saturday, May 2, at Churchill Downs at 6:57 p.m. ET

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May 1 • 9:41 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Rick Pitino, St. John’s making surprising, historic schedule moves

Rick Pitino and St. John's are setting up some surprising non-conference and preseason games.

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May 1 • 8:20 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Scientists discover a hidden brain “cleaning” effect triggered by movement

Scientists have uncovered a surprising link between simple body movement and brain health: every time you tighten your abdominal muscles—even slightly—your brain may gently sway inside your skull. This subtle motion, triggered by pressure changes in connected blood vessels, appears to help circulate cerebrospinal fluid around the brain, potentially flushing out harmful waste.

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May 1 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Don’t toss cannabis leaves: Scientists found rare compounds with medical potential

Scientists have uncovered a surprising new layer of complexity in Cannabis, identifying dozens of previously unknown compounds—including the first-ever evidence of rare molecules called flavoalkaloids in its leaves. These compounds, prized for their potential health benefits, were hidden among a rich mix of plant chemicals that vary dramatically even between just a few strains.

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Apr 30 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Cold Plunges and Your Brain: The Surprising Science Behind a 2-Minute Ice Water Dunk

When first starting out, it’s OK to do cold plunges in short increments — even 30 seconds at a time — to build up your tolerance.

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Apr 30 • 12:00 PM EDT • Science • miamiherald.com
Surprising obesity discovery rewrites decades of fat metabolism science

A key protein involved in fat metabolism has been found to do more than scientists once thought. Instead of just releasing fat, it helps maintain healthy fat tissue and balance in the body. When it’s missing or disrupted, the results can be surprisingly harmful. This finding reshapes how researchers think about obesity and metabolic disease.

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Apr 30 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
TEDxBreckenridge to host talk on the science of wildfires

Keystone Science School and Summit Fire & EMS are partnering with TEDxBreckenridge to host a talk about the “surprising science” of how wildfires shape the ecology of forests. Summit Fire fuels specialist Hannah Ohlson will...

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Apr 29 • 5:14 PM EDT • Science • summitdaily.com
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Can ‘extinct’ volcanoes still erupt? A Greek peak holds surprising clues

Tiny crystals suggest extinct volcanoes could still grow underground, a finding that could reshape how scientists assess eruption risk.

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Apr 28 • 3:31 PM EDT • Science • sciencenews.org
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Ranking each team's 2026 NFL Draft class: Chiefs, Browns, Jets crush it; Steelers, Rams, 49ers raise questions

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Apr 28 • 11:37 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Does Beer Have a 'Surprising Health Benefit'? Here's What The Science Says

Those 'healthy beer' claims aren't quite what they seem.

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Apr 28 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencealert.com
Does Beer Have a 'Surprising Health Benefit'? Here's What The Science Says

Those 'healthy beer' claims aren't quite what they seem.

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Apr 28 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • sciencealert.com
NASA Curiosity rover finds mysterious life linked molecules on mars

Curiosity has detected a surprising variety of organic molecules on Mars, including compounds tied to the chemistry of life. Some of these molecules may be billions of years old, preserved in ancient clay-rich rocks that once held water. One standout find resembles building blocks of DNA, raising exciting questions about Mars’ past. Although not proof of life, the discovery suggests the Red Planet may have once been far more biologically promising than we thought.

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Apr 28 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
New Steelers WR shares surprising connection with Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers shares a surprising similarity with one of the Pittsburgh Steelers rookies from the 2026 NFL Draft class.

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Apr 27 • 8:45 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Scientists Discover Why Cats Suddenly Stop Eating Their Food

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Apr 27 • 2:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencealert.com
Why Craig Breslow fired Alex Cora: Inside Red Sox's startling decision, which left some players in tears

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Apr 27 • 9:43 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Stratospheric nanoparticles’ surprising abundance is a game changer

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Apr 27 • 9:17 AM EDT • Science • research.noaa.gov
MIT researchers find self-organizing “pencil beam” laser could help scientists design brain-targeted therapies

After a surprising discovery that overcomes a longstanding problem in fiber optics, MIT researchers demonstrated a biomedical imaging technique that is faster and more precise than other methods, which could help scientists and clinicians study new brain therapies.

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Apr 26 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • eurekalert.org
Scientists Discover a Surprising Reason Intermittent Fasting Extends Life

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Apr 26 • 10:55 AM EDT • Health • scitechdaily.com
10 Lowe's Gadgets Under $50 Users Say Are Worth Buying

The gadget holds a special place in our hearts with its niche problem-solving abilities. These under-$50 gadgets from Lowe's offer surprising utility.

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Apr 26 • 10:02 AM EDT • Technology • bgr.com
DNA research just rewrote the origin of human species

Scientists have uncovered a surprising new picture of human origins that challenges the long-held idea of a single ancestral population in Africa. By analyzing genetic data from diverse modern African groups—especially the highly distinct Nama people—and comparing it with fossil evidence, researchers found that early humans likely evolved from multiple intermingling populations over hundreds of thousands of years. Rather than a clean split, these groups stayed connected, exchanging genes even after beginning to diverge around 120,000–135,000 years ago.

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Apr 25 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
New “optical tornado” technology could transform quantum communication

Scientists have created tiny “optical tornadoes” — swirling beams of light that twist like miniature whirlwinds — using a surprisingly simple setup based on liquid crystals. Instead of relying on complex nanotechnology, the team used self-organizing structures called torons to trap and manipulate light, causing it to spiral and rotate in intricate ways. Even more impressively, they achieved this effect in light’s most stable, lowest-energy state, making it far easier to generate laser-like beams with these unusual properties.

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Apr 25 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Scientists just discovered Africa is closer to breaking apart than we thought

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Apr 25 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
The surprisingly simple way to improve your cholesterol

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Apr 25 • 6:00 AM EDT • Health • usatoday.com
Screenwriters overwhelmingly approve a 4-year contract with Hollywood studios

Members of the screenwriters union have ratified a four-year agreement with Hollywood studios. Union leaders said Friday that 90% voted to approve the deal. This move ends a surprisingly smooth

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Apr 24 • 7:04 PM EDT • Entertainment • yakimaherald.com
This Rare Sports Car Sold by Jim Farley Has a Surprising Ford Backstory

The 1972 DeTomaso Pantera recalled Ford’s work with Italian carmakers from the 1970s, which brought Detroit muscle to European exotics.

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Apr 24 • 11:14 AM EDT • Sports • fromtheroad.ford.com
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Great Smoky Mountains National Park: Surprising things about visiting

I went to Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Tennessee and was surprised by free entry, a scenic tram, and difficult stargazing.

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Apr 24 • 8:48 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
Scientists just uncovered a 3 million-year climate mystery in Antarctic ice

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Apr 24 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
Stunning 132 million-year-old dinosaur tracks are rewriting history

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Apr 23 • 8:00 PM EDT • Science • sciencedaily.com
2026 NFL Draft: Meet Ty Simpson, the Alabama QB the Rams Surprisingly Selected

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Apr 23 • 5:08 PM EDT • Sports • foxsports.com
The surprising health benefit that could be in your pint

Drinking the odd pint of beer can provide "substantial levels" of an essential brain-boosting vitamin in your diet, according to new research in a respected journal.

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Apr 23 • 1:38 PM EDT • Health • bbc.com
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Exploring The Workloads Where The AMD Ryzen 9 9950X3D2 Makes A Lot Of Sense Review

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Apr 23 • 11:30 AM EDT • Technology • phoronix.com
6 foods with hidden health benefits — including a 'surprisingly nutrient-dense' fan favorite
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Apr 23 • 6:00 AM EDT • Health • nypost.com
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Behind every crunch: The surprising science of potato chips

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Apr 22 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • wmur.com
This is the surprising science behind the potato breed in your bag of chips

Michigan professor David Douches explains why the perfect chipping potato is so hard to find.

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Apr 22 • 11:42 AM EDT • Science • fastcompany.com
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Apr 22 • 5:47 AM EDT • Technology • gamesindustry.biz
OnePlus Watch 4 makes a surprise debut with a major software upgrade

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Apr 22 • 3:55 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Here's What's New in iOS 26.5 So Far

iOS 26.5 has been in beta since late March, with a third beta released this week. The update is relatively minor so far, which is not too surprising given that Apple is starting to shift its focus towards iOS 27. Apple will unveil iOS 27 during its WWDC 2026 keynote on June 8, and the update should be released in September. iOS 26.5 lays the groundwork for two changes, including end-to-end encryption for RCS in the Messages app and ads in the Apple Maps app.

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Apr 21 • 4:30 PM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com
Scientists Found a Way to Grow Potatoes Under Solar Panels Without Losing Yield

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Apr 21 • 4:27 PM EDT • Science • zmescience.com
ChatGPT's new Images 2.0 model is surprisingly good at generating text

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Apr 21 • 3:00 PM EDT • Technology • techcrunch.com
Bernie Sanders' anti-billionaire group defends surprising endorsement of billionaire for CA governor

Bernie Sanders' grassroots group Our Revolution endorses billionaire Tom Steyer for California governor, marking the anti-oligarch group's first such move.

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Apr 21 • 11:32 AM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com
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Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections

[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe

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Apr 21 • 9:31 AM EDT • Science • democracysos.substack.com
The surprising origin of 4 features that superglue kids — and adults

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Apr 21 • 5:00 AM EDT • Technology • npr.org
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Healthy diets spark lung cancer risk in non-smokers as pesticides loom

Younger non-smokers who ate diets rich in fruits, vegetables and whole grains showed a surprising link to lung cancer, early research suggests.

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Apr 20 • 9:47 PM EDT • Health • foxnews.com
Surprising Discovery That AI Performs Subliminal Learning And Does So In Mysterious Ways

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Apr 19 • 3:15 AM EDT • Technology • forbes.com
Kennard scores 27, LeBron leads Lakers to surprising 107-98 win over Rockets

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No one predicted this: a human-made giant is shifting Earth’s poles - Futura-Sciences

Dams: Humanity’s Giant Footprint on Earth There are so many ways that human activity shapes our environment—sometimes a little, sometimes a lot. Today, scientists are adding yet another surprising chapter to that story. Between 1835 and 2011, humanity built close to 7,000 dams worldwide. These structures are so massive, they...

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Apr 18 • 1:30 PM EDT • Science • futura-sciences.com
‘CIA’ Stars Talk Benefiting From Their Partnership & Colin’s Secret Closet

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Apr 18 • 9:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • kten.com