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A former Missouri lawmaker wins back thousands of dollars seized after sexual misconduct allegations

A former Missouri lawmaker who was censured over sexual misconduct allegations has won a court case to recoup thousands of dollars seized from his salary as a penalty | Newsradio 1140 WRVA

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Apr 21 • 3:30 PM EDT • Politics • audacy.com
Condom maker may raise prices because of Iran war

Safe sex could get more expensive if the Iran war continues to disrupt global supply chains, according to the CEO of the world’s largest condom manufacturer.

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Apr 21 • 2:52 PM EDT • Business • cnn.com
What can science fiction tell us about sex-change and the transsexual experience? | The Clayman Institute for Gender Research

Though science fiction describes future sociocultural worlds impacted by scientific and technological breakthroughs, a conundrum persists when it comes to science fiction on transgender, transsexual, and sex-change themes. Why is it that fantasies and imaginaries of sex-change in the breakthrough years of hormonal science did not register with authors writing science fiction in this period?

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Apr 21 • 8:00 AM EDT • Science • gender.stanford.edu
Nancy Mace introduces resolution to expel Republican Cory Mills from Congress

Mills, who is being investigated by the House Ethics Committee in connection with allegations including sexual and financial misconduct, has denied wrongdoing.

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Apr 20 • 9:50 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
House Ethics conducted 28 sexual misconduct investigations in 50 years, with 4 Florida Congressmen targeted

Current Florida candidate Madison Cawthorn also was investigated when he represented North Carolina.

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Apr 20 • 8:32 PM EDT • Politics • floridapolitics.com
Democrat Betty Yee exits California governor’s race

Betty Yee — a former state controller — announced Monday she was suspending her campaign, just over a week after fellow Democrat and former US Rep. Eric Swalwell left the race following sexual assault allegations that he denies.

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Apr 20 • 4:52 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
A Dallas business was raided. Police say it was operating as a "sexual encounter center".
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Apr 20 • 3:51 PM EDT • Business • cbsnews.com
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Injury updates on Colts' Daniel Jones, DeForest Buckner and others

During his pre-draft press conference, Colts' GM Chris Ballard provided injury updates on Daniel Jones, DeForest Buckner, and others

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Apr 20 • 1:49 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Column: Swalwell scandal exposed flaws in top-two primary

California Democrats caught a huge break with Eric Swalwell’s sexual assault scandal.

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Apr 20 • 9:00 AM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
Lawsuit filed against Lexington massage business after employee charged with sexual abuse

A lawsuit was filed against a Lexington massage parlor after an employee allegedly sexually abused a customer during an appointment.

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Apr 20 • 8:15 AM EDT • Business • wkyt.com
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RWJBarnabas Health, Essex County debut mobile pediatric unit and launch community health clinics

RWJBarnabas Health and Essex County have rolled out their mobile pediatric clinic, which provides children with health screenings and more.

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Apr 20 • 5:26 AM EDT • Health • roi-nj.com
California Politics 360 Full Episode | Sexual assault allegations made against Eric Swalwell

Multiple women have now accused Swalwell of sexual assault or misconduct. He has repeatedly denied all accusations.

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Apr 19 • 11:25 AM EDT • Politics • kcra.com
Politics is shaken by a new wave of #MeToo reckonings

Eric Swalwell's downfall is driving a renewed focus on sexual misconduct and abuse in Washington.

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Apr 19 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • salon.com
'Unsexy' side of robotaxis: The AV industry wants to grow up

Ride AI, an autonomous vehicle hype conference, showed an industry that wants to move away from the hype and focus on scaling.

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Apr 19 • 4:22 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
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‘More needs to be done’: Former congresswoman and survivor laments lack of protections against sexual abuse
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Apr 18 • 3:57 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Increasing Health Access & Services at the Capitol – Women's Foundation of Minnesota

Closing gaps in coverage for sexual, reproductive, and mental health is a necessary part of valuing women’s healthy and whole lives.

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Apr 17 • 5:46 PM EDT • Health • wfmn.org
Katy Perry is under investigation by Australian police over Ruby Rose sexual assault allegations from over a decade ago

Perry's rep denied the claims, calling them "categorically false." Warning: This story contains descriptions of alleged sexual assault.

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Apr 17 • 12:30 PM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Gavin Newsom chooses the wrong side of gender politics again

Sex changes for illegal immigrants might sound like a Republican ad, but it’s California policy.

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Apr 17 • 12:08 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Politics is shaken by a new wave of #MeToo reckonings

The accusations against Rep. Eric Swalwell — and his swift resignation after they became public — are driving a renewed focus on sexual misconduct and abuse in Washington.

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Apr 17 • 10:44 AM EDT • Politics • 19thnews.org
Sheriff shuts down alleged sex-oriented business in Rusk County
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Apr 17 • 8:08 AM EDT • Business • cbs19.tv
Sheriff shuts down alleged sex-oriented business in Rusk County

Residents of Rusk County gathered en masse at the County Courthouse Tuesday afternoon to attend a Commissioners Court meeting in hopes of appealing to the court regarding LSX, or 'Little Somethin Xtra...

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Apr 17 • 8:07 AM EDT • Business • yahoo.com
What is the femosphere?

A growing number of influencers are encouraging women to ditch the egalitarian narrative of liberal feminism and take a more cynical approach to the opposite sex

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Apr 17 • 7:47 AM EDT • Politics • theweek.com
AOC, Boebert join calls for sexual misconduct accountability in Congress

Lawmakers who represent leftward and rightward flanks of their parties call for reform after Congress members resign.

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Apr 16 • 4:40 PM EDT • Politics • aljazeera.com
Justin Fairfax’s rapid rise in Virginia politics flamed out after scandal

Fairfax was elected Virginia’s lieutenant governor in 2017, but sexual assault allegations led to his political downfall.

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Apr 16 • 2:38 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Shannon Elizabeth joins OnlyFans after Hollywood 'controlled' her career

Shannon Elizabeth, known for "American Pie," says she joined OnlyFans to take control of her career and show a "more sexy side."

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Apr 16 • 8:46 AM EDT • Entertainment • usatoday.com
Sexual violence is a public health crisis, it's time we treated it like one

Survivors of sexual violence need to know that theirs is not a private burden, but a public health crisis, write Katie Curran O'Malley and Michelle Daugherty Siri, one that we all have a stake in not just reaching out but in making it unacceptable to look away.

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Apr 15 • 7:46 PM EDT • Health • marylandmatters.org
Australian authorities launch investigation after Ruby Rose accuses Katy Perry of sexual assault

Actress Ruby Rose accused singer Katy Perry of sexually assaulting her in 2010. Now, Australian police tell CNN that an investigation underway.

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Apr 15 • 7:43 PM EDT • Entertainment • cnn.com
Sexual abuse allegations spur calls for a broader reckoning in Congress

Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members. Yet for many of the women of Capitol Hill, the moment of accountability was years in the making — and far from enough.

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Apr 15 • 6:47 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
Apple, Google Offer ‘Nudify’ Apps Despite Policies Against Them

Apple Inc. and Google have continued to offer mobile apps that let users make nonconsensual sexualized images of people despite their policies prohibiting such content, according to a report published Wednesday by the Tech Transparency Project.

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Apr 15 • 4:20 PM EDT • Technology • bloomberg.com
Wisconsin tornado causes damage but no injuries in Sussex and Lisbon

A tornado caused significant damage to a historic church and businesses in Sussex and Lisbon. No injuries were reported.

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Apr 15 • 1:37 PM EDT • Business • jsonline.com
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Gavin Newsom faces growing pressure to intervene in a scrambled California governor’s race

The scrambled race for California governor left in the wake of Eric Swalwell’s sexual misconduct allegations isn’t officially Gov. Gavin Newsom’s mess. But it’s one that many top Democrats want him to consider trying to clean up.

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Apr 15 • 7:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Grok’s sexual deepfakes almost got it banned from Apple’s App Store. Almost.

The back-and-forth explains xAI’s confusing policy changes.

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Apr 15 • 6:55 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
Bryan Johnson's advice to founders: Don't neglect relationships

At Business Insider's The Long Play event, Bryan Johnson pushed back on the idea that a sex life distracts founders.

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Apr 15 • 1:00 AM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
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Bryan Johnson's advice to founders: Don't neglect relationships

At Business Insider's The Long Play event, Bryan Johnson pushed back on the idea that a sex life distracts founders.

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Apr 15 • 1:00 AM EDT • Health • businessinsider.com
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Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress

Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | WWJ Newsradio 950

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Apr 15 • 12:22 AM EDT • Politics • audacy.com
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Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress

Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | KNSS Radio

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Apr 15 • 12:22 AM EDT • Politics • audacy.com
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Sexual abuse allegations are spurring calls for a broader reckoning in Congress

Resignations came quickly this week from two congressmen accused of sexual misconduct toward staff members | KMBZ

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Apr 15 • 12:22 AM EDT • Politics • audacy.com
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Schmaltz scores 2 goals as Mammoth defeat Jets 5-3

Nick Schmaltz scored twice as the Utah Mammoth beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-3 on Tuesday night and secured the first wild-card spot in the Western Conference. Schmaltz scored his first goal for the Mammoth 4:54 into the second period on the power-play, assisted by Mikhail Sergachev and Dylan Guenther. He added a power-play goal 7:16 into the third, assisted by Logan Cooley and Clayton Keller.

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Apr 15 • 12:17 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Prince Harry says children should be an 'upgrade' of their parents as he talks mental health in Melbourne

The Duke of Sussex combines two of his passions, mental health campaigning and sport, on the second day of an Australia visit.

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Apr 15 • 12:12 AM EDT • Health • bbc.com
New accuser says Eric Swalwell sexually assaulted her
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Apr 14 • 11:57 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Swalwell resigns from Congress following allegations of sexual misconduct

Once a rising star in the Democratic party, Eric Swalwell's stunning fall from grace was cemented Tuesday as his resignation letter was read by the House Clerk.

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Apr 14 • 9:03 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
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Swalwell resigns from Congress following allegations of sexual misconduct

Once a rising star in the Democratic party, Eric Swalwell's stunning fall from grace was cemented Tuesday as his resignation letter was read by the House Clerk.

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Apr 14 • 9:03 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
Apple App Store threatened to remove Grok over deepfakes: letter

In a letter to senators sent in January, Apple detailed how it responded to Grok’s ability to generate sexualized deepfakes.

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Apr 14 • 7:09 PM EDT • Technology • nbcnews.com
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Board: Two Iowa mental health professionals had sex with former clients

Two state-licensed mental health professionals are facing disciplinary actions tied to allegations of having sex with former clients.

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Apr 14 • 6:34 PM EDT • Health • kcrg.com
WATCH: Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Rep. Eric Swalwell in news conference with lawyers
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Apr 14 • 3:16 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
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Colorado lawmakers set to debate bill to keep sex offenders out of mental health facilities near sch
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Apr 14 • 2:24 PM EDT • Health • cbsnews.com
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Colorado lawmakers set to debate bill to keep sex offenders out of mental health facilities near schools

Colorado lawmakers were set to discuss a bill that would keep sex offenders from being admitted to mental health facilities near schools after a Northglenn community's repeated attempts for safeguards.

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Apr 14 • 2:16 PM EDT • Health • cbsnews.com
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Woman alleges violent sexual assault by Eric Swalwell: 'He raped me’

A day after Rep. Eric Swallwell said he would resign from Congress, a Beverly Hills woman detailed what she described as a violent sexual encounter with the Democratic lawmaker.

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Apr 14 • 1:11 PM EDT • Politics • calmatters.org
Critics blast Democrats after Swalwell resignation, say saga shows ‘how politics really works’

Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation amid sexual abuse allegations draws fierce criticism, with pundits claiming Democrats sat on the dirt for years.

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Apr 14 • 12:15 PM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com
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Swalwell accuser tells CNN he sent her unsolicited sexual images
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Apr 14 • 10:07 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
What Trump’s Deleted Social-Media Post Says About 2026 | WSJ Politics Newsletter for April 14

Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales say they plan to leave Congress in the wake of sexual-misconduct allegations

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Apr 14 • 7:05 AM EDT • Politics • wsj.com
Harvey Weinstein is going on trial again in a New York rape case

Harvey Weinstein is going on trial again on a rape charge in New York City, after years of #MeToo infamy, legal peril and prison | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM

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Apr 14 • 12:07 AM EDT • Entertainment • audacy.com
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Harvey Weinstein is going on trial again in a New York rape case

Harvey Weinstein is going on trial again on a rape charge in New York City, after years of #MeToo infamy, legal peril and prison | 104.1 FM KMOX

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Apr 14 • 12:07 AM EDT • Entertainment • audacy.com
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Swalwell's 'best friend' in Congress turns on him after bombshell allegations torpedo his political career

Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., distanced himself from Rep. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., calling him unfit for Congress after allegations of sexual assault and misconduct.

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Apr 13 • 8:53 PM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com
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Harry and Meghan: Sussexes arrive in Australia for four-day tour

It is the couple's first visit to Australia since 2018 when they were working royals.

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Apr 13 • 8:14 PM EDT • Business • bbc.com
Rep. Eric Swalwell of California says he will resign from Congress after sexual assault allegations

The decision caps a swift political fall for the seven-term lawmaker, who had been seen as a frontrunner in California’s gubernatorial race.

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Apr 13 • 5:50 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
Rep. Eric Swalwell will resign from Congress following sexual misconduct allegations

The California Democrat said in a statement he was “deeply sorry to my family, staff and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past.”

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Apr 13 • 5:46 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Swalwell faces bipartisan push to expel him from the House

Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna plans to file a motion to expel Rep. Eric Swalwell on the grounds that he violated House rules by having an inappropriate sexual relationship with a subordinate.

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Apr 13 • 2:26 PM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
House Ethics Committee investigating sexual misconduct allegations against Swalwell

The announcement comes one day after Swalwell suspended his campaign for California governor after the emergence of allegations that he continues to deny.

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Apr 13 • 2:08 PM EDT • Politics • pbs.org
🙂 Positive (35%)
Men and women with obesity face very different hidden health risks

New research reveals that obesity affects men and women in surprisingly different ways. Men are more likely to develop harmful abdominal fat and signs of liver stress, while women show higher inflammation and cholesterol levels. These differences could help explain why health risks vary between sexes. Scientists say this could lead to more tailored treatments for obesity.

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Apr 13 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • sciencedaily.com
Live updates: Swalwell drops bid for California governor; Trump and Pope Leo feud

Get live updates and the latest news as Eric Swalwell drops his bid for California governor amid sexual misconduct allegations and Trump feuds with Pope Leo over his criticism of the Iran war.

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Apr 13 • 7:29 AM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
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Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to resign from House amid sexual assault allegations

The California Democrat suspended his campaign for governor amid sexual assault and misconduct allegations by a former staff member and at least three other women

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Apr 13 • 6:19 AM EDT • Politics • theguardian.com
Erectile dysfunction is more than a sexual issue

Erectile dysfunction is more than a sexual issue.

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Apr 13 • 4:30 AM EDT • Health • statnews.com
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Free Press' Miss Hockey winner stayed confident all season long

Essex junior Calleigh Bruyns named the Free Press' Miss Hockey for the 2025-26 season. Bruyns led Essex to the D-I championship game.

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Apr 13 • 4:01 AM EDT • Sports • burlingtonfreepress.com
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Miu Miu Literary Club 2026 to Talk Politics of Desire, Sexuality

The three-day literature-centric Miu Miu Literary Club is to be held during Milan Design Week under the direction of Miuccia Prada.

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Apr 13 • 12:01 AM EDT • Politics • wwd.com
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends campaign for California governor after sex assault allegations

Rep. Eric Swalwell faced intense pressure to drop his bid for California governor after reporting Friday that prompted many supporters to drop their support for him

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Apr 12 • 9:06 PM EDT • Politics • calmatters.org
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Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.

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Apr 12 • 8:44 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.

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Apr 12 • 8:43 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations

Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.

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Apr 12 • 8:43 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Swalwell faces pressure to resign from Congress as former staffers denounce alleged misconduct in new letter

A letter signed by more than 50 former staffers of Rep. Eric Swalwell described recent allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against him as “serious” and “credible,” while demanding he resign from Congress and drop his bid for California governor.

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Apr 12 • 4:58 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Calls grow for Eric Swalwell to exit politics over sexual assault allegations

An expanding number of Democrats, including fellow Californians, are asking their House colleague to quit his campaign for governor and resign from Congress.

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Apr 12 • 3:19 PM EDT • Politics • ms.now
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him

Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.

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Apr 12 • 1:28 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
Some House members say they'll vote to expel Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales

Reps. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., and Tony Gonzalez, R-Texas, have faced sexual misconduct allegations from former staffers.

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Apr 12 • 12:28 PM EDT • Politics • nbcnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
As Swalwell’s campaign unravels, his rivals in California governor’s race scramble for an opening

The sexual misconduct allegations against Rep. Eric Swalwell are damaging his hopes of winning the governor’s race, with former allies revoking their endorsements and a growing list of prominent Democrats telling him to withdraw.

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Apr 12 • 8:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
“AI polls” are fake polls

A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.

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Apr 11 • 11:38 AM EDT • Technology • natesilver.net
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Apr 10 • 7:25 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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CT health organization receives largest charitable gift in its history. The plan for $5.4 million.

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2026 Peabody Awards Entertainment Nominations

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Sean 'Diddy' Combs' lawyers appeal his conviction with First Amendment argument

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Judges voids Atlantic Beach 'sexually oriented business' ordinance

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Apr 8 • 2:11 PM EDT • Business • wpde.com
President's budget brings back NASA science cuts

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Apr 8 • 7:20 AM EDT • Science • axios.com
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What business wants from Essex councils ahead of the 2026 elections

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Apr 7 • 8:18 PM EDT • Politics • foxnews.com
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US sexual health report card: High pleasure, low testing, stark gender disparities

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‘GMA’: Melissa Gilbert Fiercely Defends Timothy Busfield Through Tears

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‘GMA’: Melissa Gilbert Fiercely Defends Timothy Busfield Through Tears

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‘GMA’: Melissa Gilbert Fiercely Defends Timothy Busfield Through Tears

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3-year-old immigrant suffered alleged sexual abuse in federal custody

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