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NASA’s Dragonfly Clears Key Tests as Titan Rotorcraft Takes Shape

NASA’s Dragonfly is starting to look less like a collection of spacecraft parts and more like the rotorcraft that will fly across the surface of Titan,

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Jul 9 • 1:00 PM EDT • Science • science.nasa.gov
Flying bats reported near crowd at Maryland fireworks show, officials warn of health risk

Health officials are asking anyone who may have had contact with bats during the Mount Airy fireworks event to contact their local health department for a rabi

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Jul 9 • 11:15 AM EDT • Health • wjla.com
Business travellers are carrying the office everywhere they go, according to Holafly for Business's latest research

Corporate eSIMs for Business Travel Holafly A modern professional stays securely connected on the go. According to Holafly for Business, 81.3% of travellers report a positive impact on productivity when using a corporate eSIM. Today, business travel is about carrying your entire working environment with you. DUBLIN, July 09, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The modern business trip looks very different from the one most companies designed their travel policies around. Airports have become workspaces, ho

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Jul 9 • 4:00 AM EDT • Business • finance.yahoo.com
JPMorgan hires veteran banker Michael Flynn to lead small-cap banking business

JPMorgan Chase has hired veteran banker Michael Flynn to lead a newly created ​banking business, according to a memo ‌seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

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Jul 8 • 11:01 AM EDT • Business • reuters.com
DePaul Athletics and Playfly Sports Enter Multimedia Rights Partnership

CHICAGO, IL / NEW YORK, NY, July 8, 2026 – DePaul University Athletics and Playfly Sports, the sports industry's leading revenue maximization company, today ...

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Jul 8 • 6:00 AM EDT • Sports • depaulbluedemons.com
UNDER THE RADAR: '27 Quitman QB Jack Sexton

On Wednesdays we feature an in-state prospect who could be flying under the radar of college coaches.

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Jul 8 • 3:00 AM EDT • Sports • wholehogsports.com
Harry Styles realizes his fly is down during final song at record-breaking Wembley Stadium residency

‘Aperture’ singer Harry Styles realizes his fly is down during final song at record-breaking 12-night residency at Wembley Stadium in London.

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Jul 8 • 12:16 AM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
You’re out of order!: Phillies 4, Reds 1

Phils escape testy eighth to preserve Wheeler’s gem

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Jul 7 • 10:51 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Defensive-fueled Valkyries aim for 6th straight win, face Tempo

The Golden State Valkyries aim to use their defensive prowess to vault them to a team-record sixth consecutive win Wednesday night when they visit the Toronto Tempo.

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Jul 7 • 6:08 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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Trump weighed in on Cabinet squabble over ride for July Fourth flyover

The president encouraged acting attorney general Todd Blanche to fly on one of NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman’s jets despite the FAA’s prior objection to the planes.

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Jul 7 • 4:28 PM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Justice Department reaches another settlement with Trump adviser Michael Flynn

Former Trump adviser Michael Flynn has reached another settlement with the Justice Department — this time for over $38,000 in retirement funds the Army had withheld from the former general after officials found he earned money from speaking at an event tied to the Russian government in 2015.

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Jul 7 • 4:19 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
12 Gadgets Under $25 That Deserve A Spot In Your Home Office

Working from home can mean spending hours on end in a makeshift space thrown together on the fly. These gadgets could ease some of the pain.

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Jul 6 • 8:30 PM EDT • Technology • slashgear.com
Bucks' Brayden Burries: Summer League status unclear

Bucks' Brayden Burries: Summer League status unclear

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Jul 6 • 2:17 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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Warriors' R.J. Nembhard: Notches 17 points in loss

Warriors' R.J. Nembhard: Notches 17 points in loss

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Jul 6 • 2:04 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
An Urgent Threat to the Foundation of Federal Science Funding

New proposed regulations on the use of federal funding could cripple American science by replacing merit-based peer review of research projects with the whims of political appointees and ending support for the publication of research results. An entomologist and former federal government leader urges anyone who supports science to contact policymakers to oppose the proposed rules.

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Jul 6 • 10:30 AM EDT • Science • entomologytoday.org
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Union County Announces Return of Sensory-Friendly Summer Camp at Trailside Nature & Science Center

The Union County Board of County Commissioners is pleased to open registration for the 2026 Sensory Friendly Summer Camp at Trailside Nature and Science Center – 452 New Providence Road in Mountain…

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Jul 6 • 9:30 AM EDT • Science • ucnj.org
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Warriors' Yaxel Lendeborg: Another solid SL outing

Warriors' Yaxel Lendeborg: Another solid SL outing

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Jul 5 • 11:10 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Summer McIntosh breaks longstanding 200-meter butterfly world record at Canadian trials

Summer McIntosh broke the longest-standing individual world record in women's swimming on Sunday night in Montreal.

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Jul 5 • 10:26 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Rams’ signing of Jaylen Watson is flying under the radar

Jaylen Watson is better than any Rams CB from a season ago but overshadowed by Trent McDuffie

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Jul 5 • 9:14 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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DC experiences ‘Code Red’ air quality after massive fireworks display

Residents of Washington, DC, on Sunday briefly experienced the worst air quality of any major city in the world, according to a company that ranks pollution globally, as the capital reckoned with the aftermath of a massive, 40-minute Fourth of July fireworks show.

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Jul 5 • 5:32 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Nets' Danny Wolf: Dealing with back soreness

Nets' Danny Wolf: Dealing with back soreness

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Jul 5 • 1:25 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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White Sox's Tanner McDougal: Two rehab outings

White Sox's Tanner McDougal: Two rehab outings

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Jul 5 • 10:08 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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Diamondbacks' Ildemaro Vargas: Makes second straight start

Diamondbacks' Ildemaro Vargas: Makes second straight start

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Jul 5 • 8:45 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Things to do in Cincinnati this week, July 6-12

If you're looking for the best events happening in Cincinnati, you're at the right place. Find your next concert, game, festival or family event.

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Jul 5 • 12:15 AM EDT • Entertainment • cincinnati.com
Ducks Should Let Leo Carlsson Walk

The Philadelphia Flyers rocked the NHL world on June 3 when the team announced it had signed restricted free agent center Leo Carlsson of the Anaheim Ducks to a five-year offer sheet for $90 million. At $18 million per season, Carlsson is now the highest-paid player in the NHL, beating the ...

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Jul 4 • 9:17 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Moment of Science: Bald Eagles

It may have a bright yellow beak, but it'll always be known for the "red, white and blue". Let's fly through the high and lows of the bald eagle's history in America. 🇺🇸🦅

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Jul 4 • 4:10 PM EDT • Science • 13abc.com
Sword Art Online Unanswered Butterfly Anime Reveals 19-Minute Preview Available Until July 6

The new Sword Art Online anime Unanswered//butterfly anime revealed a 19-minute preview, which will be deleted on July 5 at 23:59 PDT.

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Jul 3 • 11:11 PM EDT • Technology • animecorner.me
The Nationals scorch the Pirates with 5 home runs to push Bucs back under .500

WASHINGTON — The ball was flying on a scorching Friday in D.C. It didn’t seem to fly as far for the Pirates. The Washington Nationals hit five...

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Jul 3 • 9:54 PM EDT • Sports • post-gazette.com
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Carlsson's Flyers offer sheet was entirely avoidable for Verbeek, Ducks

If Anaheim does match, they'll be in tight salary cap straights with much more to do. If they don't match, they'll lose their franchise center for four first-round picks. How did we get here?

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Jul 3 • 8:52 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Jaguars’ Waldron To Play Much Bigger Role This Season

Following a promotion to Assistant Head Coach, Shane Waldron aims to revive his reputation by powering Jacksonville’s elite coaching staff toward another high-flying offensive season.

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Jul 3 • 8:02 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Flyers Sign Former NHL First-Round Pick
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Jul 3 • 2:45 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
A career of flying for science (and the occasional sled dog)

Martin Stuefer, the director of the Hyperspectral Imaging Lab at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, is both a pilot and researcher.

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Jul 3 • 1:28 PM EDT • Science • adn.com
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Flyers Reveal Jett Luchanko Underwent Procedure Prior to Development Camp
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Jul 3 • 12:52 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Pass on the politics, more family please. Tulsans reflect on a milestone Fourth of July.

It’s a milestone birthday for the USofA — its 250th (officially). We talked with Tulsans about how they plan to mark the holiday.

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Jul 3 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • tulsaflyer.org
Echoes of Aincrad: Sword Art Online

Bandai Namco has released an 18-minute preview of the feature-length promotional animation Sword Art Online: Unanswered//butterfly included with the Echoes of Aincrad: Sword Art Online Ultimate Edi…

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Jul 3 • 3:00 AM EDT • Technology • gematsu.com
Cubs Minor League Wrap: Smokies shut out Columbus, 1-0

Iowa, Knoxville and Myrtle Beach all win. South Bend gets walloped.

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Jul 2 • 10:42 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Nevada’s FY26 preliminary business sales revenue increases by 3.8%, Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar says

State's preliminary business sales revenue is $226.6 million, according to officials.

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Jul 2 • 6:56 PM EDT • Business • fox5vegas.com
I fly the American flag because no political faction owns patriotism

'As a former Superior Court judge, I swore to support and defend the constitutions of the United States and California against all enemies, foreign and domestic. That is a precept all should embrace and celebrate, flag or no flag,' writes an L.A. Times reader.

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Jul 2 • 9:00 AM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
Flying for science (and the occasional sled dog)

A Cessna 185 zigzagged a tight back-and-forth pattern along Alaska’s southern coast earlier this summer, the pilot intent on his mission to measure the ocean's response to summer glacier melt.

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Jul 1 • 7:36 PM EDT • Science • gi.alaska.edu
Victor Marx’s lead sits outside of recount threshold in Republican race for Colorado governor

Ministry leader Victor Marx on Wednesday night overtook state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer in the Republican primary for Colorado governor, securing enough votes that — for now — put the race beyond the mandatory recount threshold. The Republican primary race between Kirkmeyer and Marx briefly entered mandatory recount territory on Wednesday afternoon, with just a few hundred […]

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Jul 1 • 6:22 PM EDT • Politics • coloradopolitics.com
Augusta Popeyes briefly closed for health code violations

The restaurant, which opened in May on Western Avenue, was permitted to reopen on Saturday after it was closed a day earlier.

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Jul 1 • 5:12 PM EDT • Health • centralmaine.com
Gulfstream Claims Record for Fastest, Farthest Business Jet Flight

Manufacturer announced the milestone alongside its 800th city pair speed record, achieved by its new G800.

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Jul 1 • 4:00 PM EDT • Business • yahoo.com
Airport business geniuses are doing whatever they can to ensure World Cup fans get their ranch fix

Ranch dressing is now being sold alongside World Cup merch at John F. Kennedy International Airport so fans can buy it past TSA and fly home.

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Jul 1 • 3:28 PM EDT • Business • foxnews.com
Yankees' Jazz Chisholm: Returning to starting nine

Yankees' Jazz Chisholm: Returning to starting nine

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Jul 1 • 12:09 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Royals' Bobby Witt: Homers twice in loss

Royals' Bobby Witt: Homers twice in loss

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Jul 1 • 3:59 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Twins' Joe Ryan: Crumbles in fourth frame

Twins' Joe Ryan: Crumbles in fourth frame

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Jul 1 • 2:32 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Royals' Jac Caglianone: Returning to Kansas City lineup

Royals' Jac Caglianone: Returning to Kansas City lineup

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Jun 30 • 3:55 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Fly Phishing: How Business Aviation Can Fight AI-Supercharged Cybertheft

AI is making cybercriminals faster, smarter and harder to detect. Learn how business aviation operators can recognize emerging threats, defend against sophisticated phishing attacks and protect their aircraft, data and organizations.

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Jun 30 • 3:34 PM EDT • Business • nbaa.org
Astros' Ronel Blanco: Works 3.1 scoreless in rehab start

Astros' Ronel Blanco: Works 3.1 scoreless in rehab start

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Jun 30 • 9:36 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
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Making moves

What deals could the Sixers and Flyers make in free agency?

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Jun 30 • 5:01 AM EDT • Sports • inquirer.com
Ariel Hukporti: Reaches free agency

Ariel Hukporti: Reaches free agency

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Jun 29 • 11:08 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Knicks' Landry Shamet: Intends to sign extension

Knicks' Landry Shamet: Intends to sign extension

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Jun 29 • 5:06 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Behind the scenes with Jon Ossoff, the 2026 — and maybe 2028

Outside the frame of the viral clips – shot by two cameras carefully positioned on either side of the stage – were over a thousand people, hot under the tin roof of a converted ironworks on Saturday afternoon. They applauded a few times and got one “USA! USA!” chant briefly going, but mostly they sat quietly listening as Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff spoke.

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Jun 29 • 6:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
The science of a splashdown: Why only 7 home runs have reached the Allegheny River on the fly

They gathered in their brightly colored kayaks and rubber rafts, several dozen of them at least. There along the north shore of the Allegheny River they...

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Jun 29 • 4:00 AM EDT • Science • post-gazette.com
Royals' Jac Caglianone: Managing groin issue

Royals' Jac Caglianone: Managing groin issue

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Jun 28 • 12:10 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Diamondbacks' Geraldo Perdomo: Three hits in loss

Diamondbacks' Geraldo Perdomo: Three hits in loss

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Jun 28 • 8:58 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Astronomers find biggest super-puff planets yet, lighter than cotton candy

Comparable to shaving foam, astronomers find the wispiest planets yet. They're in the southern "flying fish" constellation.

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Jun 28 • 6:00 AM EDT • Science • latimes.com
‘AIDS is not over:’ Behind a local group’s awareness campaign for HIV funding

Walk through East Liberty, Bloomfield or other Pittsburgh neighborhoods and you might see flyers with black-and-pink block print and an urgent message:...

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Jun 28 • 4:00 AM EDT • Health • post-gazette.com
Belkin launches new 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 dock with 140W charging and triple 4K display support

Belkin has launched a 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 Dock in China priced at 2,299 yuan (approximately $338). The Belkin dock ships with a 180W adapter and 1m cable and delivers 140W USB Power Delivery over a single Thunderbolt 5 connection, with bandwidth scaling from 80Gbps to 120Gbps for high-resolution display use. Belkin briefly listed the dock on its global website at $350 before removing the page, hinting at a global launch.

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Jun 28 • 3:25 AM EDT • Technology • notebookcheck.net
Flyers hope to hit on another fifth-rounder from Minnesota high school level

The Flyers have had some success with fifth-rounders from the Minnesota high school level. They’ll hope Kent Sauer adds to it.

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Jun 27 • 2:57 PM EDT • Sports • nbcsportsphiladelphia.com
Flyers Draft Dominant Goalie Martin Psohlavec with Monster Size
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Jun 27 • 12:38 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Flyers continue to add on defense with first of two second-round picks

With their first of two second-round picks in the 2026 NHL draft, the Flyers selected Brek Liske.

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Jun 27 • 12:09 PM EDT • Sports • nbcsportsphiladelphia.com
NHL Trade Rumors: Flyers Weighing Zach Werenski Trade
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Jun 27 • 11:39 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Blue Jays' George Springer: Headed for paternity list

Blue Jays' George Springer: Headed for paternity list

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Jun 27 • 10:56 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Reds' Noelvi Marte: Makes impact off bench

Reds' Noelvi Marte: Makes impact off bench

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Jun 27 • 8:58 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Rockies' Jake McCarthy: Tallies sixth homer

Rockies' Jake McCarthy: Tallies sixth homer

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Jun 27 • 2:39 AM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Cardinals' Dustin May: Next start getting skipped

Cardinals' Dustin May: Next start getting skipped

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Jun 26 • 11:52 PM EDT • Sports • cbssports.com
Local business celebrates 10 year anniversary with $5,000 in cash prizes up for grabs

It is a celebratory feat for any small business to successfully reach 10 years in operation.To mark their 10 year anniversary, Escape It Grandview will be host

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Jun 26 • 6:09 PM EDT • Business • abc6onyourside.com
Pete Buttigieg was briefly separated from his children after police say he was target of false report

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was the target of an anonymous report that police determined was false and that he says forced him to spend a night away from his four-year-old twins.

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Jun 26 • 4:22 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
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Pilots react to a Boeing 777 freighter's 'reckless' stunt over Texas

A Boeing 777 nearly clipped the ground during an unusually low flyover in Texas, a stunt veteran pilots called "reckless" and "stupid."

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Jun 26 • 4:13 PM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
Walton Arts Center to host blood drive with free entertainment July 1

The Walton Arts Center will host a blood drive in partnership with the American Red Cross from 10 a.m. until 4 p.m. on Wednesday, July 1. The center will provide live entertainment for blood donors in attendance that day, including performances by cellist Carrington Truehart, and guitarists Ben Harris and William Reyes. SUBSCRIBE: Get our

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Jun 26 • 12:28 PM EDT • Entertainment • fayettevilleflyer.com
NHL Mock Draft: Flyers Projected to Make Massive Choice... Literally
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Jun 26 • 5:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Flyers Star Winger Makes NHL Insider's New Trade Board
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Jun 26 • 2:14 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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