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Rookie Draft Pick May Fix ‘Biggest Roster Issue’ for Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys could have a fix for their "biggest remaining roster issue" in rookie cornerback and 4th-round pick Devin Moore. The post Rookie Draft Pick May Fix ‘Biggest Roster Issue’ for Cowboys appeared first on HEAVY.
Patriots Fans Will Love Cooper DeJean’s A.J. Brown Admission
Philadelphia Eagles corner Cooper DeJean would love to match up against a certain New England Patriots wide receiver. DeJean spoke at the Exciting Mics forum at Fanatics Fan Fest over the weekend and talked about one receiver you would like to match up against.If you’re looking for an answer, it is one of his former […] The post Patriots Fans Will Love Cooper DeJean’s A.J. Brown Admission appeared first on HEAVY.
Nets' Brown Ranked No. 6 Rookie in Summer League
Mikel Brown Jr. is electrifying Brooklyn fans with elite two-way play, showcasing the shifty shot-creation and defensive length that cement his status as a cornerstone of the Nets' future.
Kool-Aid McKinstry is about to silence every doubter
Kool-Aid McKinstry flashed elite playmaking ability in 2025, but inconsistency kept him from reaching the next level. With Brandon Staley’s new defensive system in place, the young Saints cornerback could be on the verge of becoming one of the NFL’s premier shutdown defenders in 2026.
Frozen for years, this tiny animal miraculously springs back to life - Futura-Sciences
Siberia’s Secret Super-Survivor In a remote corner of the world, where only the boldest humans venture and always with layers of insulation, a small amphibian takes coexistence with extreme cold to a whole new level. Deep within the boreal forests of Siberia—imagine endless spruces and a carpet of snow that...
The anti-aging industry promises to extend life. Here's the reality
The fear of aging is driving a wave of biohacking businesses promising to help restore youth and fight disease. Four Corners investigates the race to reverse the aging process.
iPhone 18 Pro is just two months away, but you probably shouldn't wait for it
The next iPhone lineup is around the corner – and it’s going to be a different one. The base model...
Ross Street Live: Bands, food trucks, cornhole and ping pong coming to downtown Santa Rosa block
Starting Aug. 14 through Oct. 31, Ross Street will be closed to traffic for live music and local food, to test a larger effort to improve the downtown area’s walkable options and vibrancy.
Robinhood’s Chief on Trump Accounts and Why Trading Isn’t Necessarily Gambling
Vlad Tenev, the chief executive of the digital brokerage Robinhood, is trying to win over the next generation of Americans with Trump accounts.
Bill Barnwell Makes Bold Claims on Minnesota Vikings Roster
From Justin Jefferson's staggering trade value to surprise inclusions like Donovan Jackson, discover why three cornerstone stars could command an unprecedented haul of future first-round draft picks.
BYU’s Three Toughest Tests in 2026
The 2026 football season is right around the corner. Fall camp is just a few weeks away and BYU kicks off against Utah Tech in just over 50 days. With that in mind, let’s scan over the football schedule and pinpoint where BYU will be tested the most. Almost no game on the schedule is […]
Texas Sen. John Cornyn appears on the fence about Todd Blanche’s nomination to be Trump’s attorney general
Cornyn, whose reelection defeat Trump ensured in May, expressed concerns during Blanche’s confirmation hearing about President Trump’s “anti-weaponization fund” – which Blanche helped craft as Trump’s personal lawyer.
Rimington, Frazier and Suh make Sports Illustrated's college top 50
Sports Illustrated released its top 50 best players of all-time list. Three Huskers made the list.
Bucs' Wirfs Ranked One of NFL's Top-10 Franchise Players
As an elite left tackle with Hall of Fame potential, Tristan Wirfs anchors Tampa Bay’s future while outshining nearly every non-quarterback on this exclusive ranking of cornerstone players.
Cornelius fountain company says water restrictions are bad for business
Due to mandatory water restrictions, Charlotte Water says “the operation of decorative fountains, including recirculating fountains, is prohibited.
Science behind ‘corn sweat’ and how it worsens the current heat wave
Experts say corn sweat is making an already brutal heat stretch feel even more humid across South Dakota.
UMD Smith Relaunches Blockchain Business Accelerator and Imperative Course
/PRNewswire/ -- The University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business is relaunching two cornerstone initiatives designed to strengthen regional...
Americans are angry about data centers. Politicians are feeling the pressure
From Michigan Avenue, Saline Township looks like any other farming community, with its corn and soybean fields, silos and grain elevators.
Sen. John Cornyn undecided on President Trump’s pick for U.S. Attorney General
Cornyn is a key vote that could decide if Todd Blanche’s nomination moves forward to the full Senate.
Business Engagement Strategies to Advance Employment
Achieving Employment First goals requires strong partnerships with the business community.Hosted by the Yang-Tan Institute on Employment and Disability in Cornell University’s ILR School, this webinar will explore practical business engagement strategies that help state agencies, employment service providers, and workforce partners build pathways toward meaningful relationships with employers while advancing competitive integrated employment opportunities for people with disabilities.Participants will:
Cornerstone University Launches New Master of Science in Marriage and Family Therapy
Cornerstone University launches a new online M.S. in Marriage and Family Therapy, preparing students for LMFT licensure in Michigan and beyond.
Litera Relaunches to Unite the Practice and Business of Law on a Single AI Agent
CHICAGO, July 15, 2026--After 30 years serving 99% of the Am Law 100, Litera relaunches around one platform, one agent, and one dataset spanning every corner of the firm
Giants Trade Pitch Deals Disappointing Former 1st-Round Pick
Bleacher Report's Moe Moton predicts the New York Giants will trade cornerback and former 1st-round pick Deonte Banks. The post Giants Trade Pitch Deals Disappointing Former 1st-Round Pick appeared first on HEAVY.
Browns young cornerstone already in elite company after rookie season
He may only be entering his second season in the NFL, but Browns linebacker Carson Schwesinger already finds himself in elite conversations
Aging politicians face questions over health transparency after Graham's death
Graham’s death and the 84-year-old McConnell’s hospitalization come amid a reckoning about the nation’s aging leaders. Sen. John Cornyn says more health transparency may be needed.
Aging politicians face questions over health transparency after Graham's death
Graham’s death and the 84-year-old McConnell’s hospitalization come amid a reckoning about the nation’s aging leaders. Sen. John Cornyn says more health transparency may be needed.
Skip Bayless runs to Joe Burrow's defense after NFL poll
Bengals QB Joe Burrow has an unexpected defender in his corner.
11 Actors You Probably Forgot Had Hit Songs
Many actors have tried their hand at music, but only a few have landed genuine hits. From chart-topping singles to unexpected fan favorites, these stars proved they could succeed in more than one corn...
Notre Dame's Leonard Moore Is Every Wide Receiver's Nightmare
Cornerback Leonard Moore is an absolute shutdown artist for Notre Dame, and he'll be the same for the team that takes him early in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Exclusive: Corner Health raises $25 million to turn nurse practitioners into entrepreneurs
Women dominate NP roles—and can double their salaries in 27 states where they're permitted to practice independently.
New course examines engineering challenges, opportunities in women’s health
A new Duffield Engineering biomedical engineering course will challenge students to investigate real-world failures in women’s health technologies and identify opportunities for better design.
Can Corn Really Make Maryland More Humid? Here’s The Science
CALIFORNIA, Md. — If you have spent a late summer afternoon in Maryland and wondered why the air feels especially sticky, you may have heard the term “corn sweat.” While the phrase sounds unusual, it describes a real process that can contribute to humid conditions during the growing season. Corn, like many plants, releases water vapor into […]
What Could Possibly Be Holding Up Cason Wallace’s Extension
Rising luxury tax pressures and Wallace’s soaring potential have created a high-stakes standoff, forcing Sam Presti to balance future financial flexibility with securing a cornerstone perimeter defender.
UK police release man arrested over killing of former politician Ann Widdecombe
Devon and Cornwall Police said detectives are working at “at a significant pace” to find the killer, and they don't believe there is a risk to the public.
Celtics Teammate Makes Feelings Clear on Jaylen Brown After Trade
The Boston Celtics have spent the past week responding to the Jaylen Brown trade from every corner of the organization. Brad Stevens laid out the reasoning. Joe Mazzulla spoke about trust and gratitude. Jayson Tatum reflected on what it felt like to lose a nine-year teammate.On Friday in Las Vegas, more voices from inside the […] The post Celtics Teammate Makes Feelings Clear on Jaylen Brown After Trade appeared first on HEAVY.
Giants Offseason Signing Named Potential Bust in 2026
The New York Giants signed Greg Newsome II to a short-term, big-money deal. Newsome was listed as the Giants' potential bust candidate for 2026 by Bleacher Report, which named one for each of the 32 teams Friday. The Giants signed Newsome to a one-year, $8 million this offseason and anointed him their No. 2 cornerback opposite 2025 free-agent addition Paulson Adebo.
Police in UK arrest suspect in killing of former Parliament member Ann Widdecombe
The killing was not believed to be an act of terror and there was no information to suggest it was politically motivated, Devon and Cornwall Police Assistant Chief Constable Matt Longman said.
ESPN: Quincy Riley tabbed as Saints' 2026 breakout candidate
Second-year corner Quincy Riley could take on a larger role and emerge as one of the New Orleans Saints' breakout players in 2026, according to ESPN.
Vacant Mission Chase bank to reopen as Hidden Frequency arts venue
A key nightlife change is coming to a well-known Mission District corner, and neighbors are already taking note.
Who are the Top 5 cornerbacks in Denver Broncos history?
Champ Bailey is the GOAT. Is Pat Surtain close to catching up and maybe surpassing him? He is certainly already in most of our top five lists at cornerback.
Unicorn opportunity: Building internal audit from the ground up
Meet Omar Obaisi, based in Chicago, who leads our Global Internal Audit function at Amer Sports, overseeing SOX 404 compliance and operational audits. As his team focuses on advancing the audit…
Celtics send clear message over Jayson Tatum trade rumors
Boston Celtics trade Jaylen Brown to 76ers but reject Jayson Tatum trade inquiries, keeping the injured star on his $314M supermax deal as their cornerstone.
Ex-Eagles Star Reveals ‘Hurt’ Reaction To A Cowboys Hire
The Philadelphia Eagles lost a key coach during the 2026 NFL offseason. When the 34-year-old defensive backs coach, Christian Parker, received an offer from the Dallas Cowboys, he couldn’t pass up the opportunity to take on a pay raise with a promotion. The former Eagles cornerback Darius Slay recently recalled his reaction when he heard […] The post Ex-Eagles Star Reveals ‘Hurt’ Reaction To A Cowboys Hire appeared first on HEAVY.
Money isn’t everything in politics — just ask Thomas Massie and John Cornyn
Money is simply the megaphone, and amplifying an unpersuasive message doesn’t produce victory.
Persona 4 Revival Producer Confirms Changes to Yosuke to Fit Today's Era
In a recent interview with Anime Corner during Anime Expo 2026, Persona Team General Producer Kazuhisa Wada spoke about different changes made to Persona
A Dog Named Dug: The Science Behind Therapy Animals
Through the Cornell Companions program, volunteer therapy animals on campus bring emotional and neurochemical benefits to students during stressful times.
Palworld Hits an Incredible 40 Million Players 2.5 Years After Early Access Launch, and With 1.0 Right Around the Corner
Palworld has achieved an impressive player milestone 2.5 years after its early access launch and with the 1.0 release right around the corner.
Dbacks Offense Slides Right Back: Dbacks 1, Padres 4
Whatever momentum seemed to have been gained by the offensive outburst last night was immediately lost 24 hours later. We are right back in the same spot we were in when we got here yesterday. Really a frustrating night for a team that was hoping to turn a corner after last night and get some […]
Roads partially shut down after Clarksville business catches fire
The fire happened at the Stop & Shop Market at the corner of Woodmont Boulevard and Greenwood Avenue.
The Magnus effect: The science that allows soccer players to ‘bend it like Beckham’
Want to know how to curl a soccer ball? Understanding the physics behind the Magnus effect can give your corner kicks a serious leg up.
Five Science Fiction Versions of The Odyssey
The Odyssey by the poet Homer is one of the jewels in the crown of Greek culture. It has, in the thousands of years since its composition, also become a cornerstone of world literature and, hence, has found its way into speculative subgenres great and small. For this is a story of gods and monsters, […]
Burlington’s mayor says the city is ‘back.’ Is it just a blip?
Mayor Emma Mulvaney-Stanak said that Burlington is turning a corner. Business leaders say that sales are up — but they aren’t sure about an upward trend.
Cornerstone Business Credit Funds $250K Line of Credit to Concrete Business
Cornerstone Business Credit funded a $250,000 line of credit to a company in the concrete business. With a building backlog of orders, customers paying in the
Terrion Arnold Clears Waivers: What it Means
Former Detroit Lions cornerback Terrion Arnold has officially entered free agency. According to ESPN, Arnold cleared waivers on Monday, meaning no NFL team claimed his contract following his release by the Lions last week. He is now free to sign…
Commanders signing Super Bowl-winning cornerback in free agency
The Washington Commanders have bolstered their depth at cornerback with the signing of Rasul Douglas.
Washington Commanders Sign Veteran Cornerback Rasul Douglas
The Washington Commanders are adding experienced depth to the secondary after inking veteran Rasul Douglas
James Webb telescope's largest-ever map of the universe unmasks hidden corners
Using the James Webb Space Telescope, astronomers have created the most detailed map of the cosmic web ever.
Analyst Names Jaguars’ ‘Most Promising Building Block’
Despite Trevor Lawrence's MVP-caliber rise, a surprising two-way star emerges as Jacksonville’s ultimate cornerstone. Discover why this versatile playmaker holds the key to the franchise's long-term dominance.
A Colorado county’s new ‘unicorn’ home health program fills gap left by provider’s closure
“We recognized there were members of our community who were struggling to access appropriate services,” said Brandon Daruna, CEO of Eagle County Paramedic Services.
Studio MAPPA to Animate All Persona 4: Revival In-Game Cutscenes
Persona 4: Revival will have of the animated scenes in the game redone by studio MAPPA, as announced during Anime Expo 2026.
Cease won’t desist, Jays beat M’s 2-0
Tonight’s game began with a raucous ceremonial first pitch from head coach Mauricio Pochettino and the U.S. Men’s National Team. Canada would own the rest of the night. The first inning was the canary in the coal mine, as J.P. Crawford biffed yet another throw from the hot corner in the top half, and in […]
Sword Art Online Unanswered Butterfly Anime Reveals 19-Minute Preview Available Until July 6
The new Sword Art Online anime Unanswered//butterfly anime revealed a 19-minute preview, which will be deleted on July 5 at 23:59 PDT.
'She's Special': Harper’s Corner Wire-To-Wire Winner Of Schuylerville
Charles Bigg’s Harper’s Corner made every pole a winning one in Friday’s $200,000 Schuylerville (L), a six-furlong sprint for 2-year-old fillies on opening day at Saratoga Race Course. Trained by Cathal Lynch and piloted by Paco Lopez, the dark bay who became the first stakes winner for her sire, ...
Tricorn hats or Trump rally? Americans have July Fourth options
The United States is celebrating a jubilee – July 4th is the 250th anniversary, or semiquincentennial, of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the foundational document for western democracy.
No corners cut for Conor McGregor
Conor McGregor is leaving no stone unturned in preparation for his Octagon return.
Oakland sports standings: Roots playoff push, ultimate frisbee dominance
Plus the Ballers' home run leader, the Unicorns’ promising cricket season and the rise of some local youth weightlifting champions.
Helio and You: Heliophysics as an American Endeavor
Heliophysics is an important cornerstone of the history of astronomy, and many of the pioneers in this field have been American. This article examines a bit of this history in depth.
Mitch McConnell’s Goons Cornered on Truth About His Health
After a CPR bombshell, the Republican lawmaker’s team has gone silent.
Hochul tells auto insurance companies to show their work in implementing changes
The auto insurance law changes were billed as a cornerstone of Hochul’s affordability agenda
Alabama target, top cornerback reportedly makes commitment decision
Top cornerback prospect Hayden Stepp has reportedly announced a commitment between Alabama, California, and Oregon.
Eagles 2026 most important list: Riq Woolen
Cornerback Riq Woolen takes his place on the list of most important Eagles of 2026.
7 things fantasy football players — and fans, too — should know about the Steelers’ offense
Believe it or not, Steelers training camp is only four weeks away. That means fantasy football season is right around the corner, too. One of the Post-Gazette’s...
Crews called to overnight fire to auto repair business in Boonville
We’re told there was damage to the back corner of the business.
The origin story of college football’s most unhinged corner of the internet: Message boards
Message boards are ubiquitous with college sports, and have been since the late 1990s. Here's how it all began.
France keeps health emergency plan at highest level in case of another heatwave
PARIS, June 29 (Reuters) - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Monday he was keeping the country's health emergency response plan, ORSAN, at its highest level for the coming days in view
France Keeps Health Emergency Plan at Highest Level in Case of Another Heatwave
PARIS, June 29 (Reuters) - French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu said on Monday he was keeping the country's health emergency response plan, ORSAN, at its highest level for the coming days in view of "a possible recurrence of a heatwave episode". Lecornu was speaking at the start of a ...
Cornell Yang Center for Wildlife Health awards seed funding to five conservation efforts around the globe
The CCF provides catalytic seed funding to spark pioneering applied research to advance wildlife conservation solutions. The fund prioritizes initiatives that improve the health of free-ranging wildlife and/or solve environmental problems via a One Health lens.
Cornerstone University Appoints National Nursing Leader Gay L. Landstrom to Lead Nursing Program
Cornerstone University appoints nationally recognized nursing leader Dr. Gay Landstrom to lead its CCNE-accredited nursing program.
Digital research repository arXiv to start new chapter as nonprofit
On July 1, the digital research respository arXiv, house at Cornell Tech, will transition to an independent nonprofit, enabling faster technological development, expanded partnerships and long-term financial sustainability.
AI is changing expectations for MBA graduates
While MBA job prospects are expected to remain stable in the near future, new hires will be held to higher standards inside rapidly evolving workplaces.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Caminero to the moon: Rays 4, D-Backs 2
Before you could grab your hot dog, popcorn, and preferred pilsner beverage, the Diamondbacks took a 1-0 lead on a Geraldo Perdomo double, Corbin Carroll single, and a whiff of a tag from catcher Hunter Feduccia. In the bottom half of the first, Junior Caminero hit a thunderous, sky-scraping blast for his sixth homer in […]
GOP senators seem increasingly game to buck some Trump priorities
Is growing pushback from conservative corners of the upper chamber a sign that Trump’s grip on his party may be slipping?
SEGA / Atlus hosting new Nintendo Switch 2 and Switch sale with Sonic Origins Plus, Unicorn Overlord, and more at new low prices
Fans of SEGA and Atlus can save big on Switch 2 and Switch games as part of new sale on the Nintendo eShop. Over thirty titles are included here with some familiar names in the lineup. We’ll mention that a number of games are at new low prices here such as the individual Etrian Odyssey games, Sonic Origins Plus, Unicorn...
Moncks Corner woman, 35, charged after running business without retail license
A Berkely County woman was charged after South Carolina Department of Revenue officals found that she was with operating a business without a Retail LicenseFrid
CSUF Report Finds Family Businesses Drive Jobs and Revenue in Fullerton
The city of Fullerton is home to a vibrant entrepreneurial community, with family-owned businesses serving as a cornerstone of the local economy. The family business sector in Fullerton is the subject of a new report researched and published by Tim Schultz, the head of Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Family Business. Chethan Srikant, associate professor […]
5 free agent cornerback options for the Detroit Lions
Five cornerback additions the Detroit Lions should consider after Terrion Arnold’s arrest.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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