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Poll: Americans are willing to bridge political divides at July Fourth parties, over dinner and more
But they’re sharply divided over whether they would be willing to marry or live with partners with whom they strongly disagree politically.
Fourth of July fireworks pose hidden health risk for certain Americans, experts warn
Americans release 300 million pounds of fireworks annually, creating smoke that worsens asthma and COPD, experts warn.
Small businesses say they're having a good summer as Americans travel closer to home
Small business owners in U.S. tourist destinations say they’re seeing more Americans sticking closer to home this summer
Long Reads for the Long Weekend
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) Happy Fourth of July weekend! As has been a tradition of mine going back to the beginning of the EntStrategyGuy website, I’m sharing my favorite long reads of the last year, like I did in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2024, and 2025. Let’s dive right in! Subscribe “Different Prices for the Same Ride: How Uber and Lyft Use AI to Get More Money Out of You“ by Derek Kravitz in Consumer Reports I don’t think surveillance pricing, like the kind described in this brilliant Consumer Reports article, is long for the world—it’s toxically unpopular—but we’ll see if either party takes on this issue. If I ran a political party focused on affordability, I would focus on a few pro-consumer and pro-market policies: Banning non-compete agreements. Ending surveillance pricing Eliminating junk fees (read more here...) Ensuring “right to repair” for consumer (and military!) products Capping excessive app store fees Stopping digital/algorithmic price-fixing tools. Preventing automatic subscription price increases. And more. If you want to fight inflation, there are a lot of great ways to do it quickly. Speaking of higher prices... “Secret Documents Show Pepsi and Walmart Colluded to Raise Food Prices Across the Economy“ by Matt Stoller in BIG Again, I think a political party should focus on lowering prices for consumers. And deals like this—Walmart making a deal/forcing Pepsi to offer the lowest prices at its stores and nowhere else—hypothetically lower prices at Walmart...but raise them everywhere else. “15 DUIs, still driving: California’s failure to take repeat drunk drivers off the road“ by Robert Lewis and Lauren Hepler in CalMatters CalMatters does terrific reporting in California, something the Golden State desperately needs more of, and this article is a great example of that. “PugLips: The next insanely popular thing you’ve never heard of…” by Simon Carless in Game Discover Co I thought that this parody article (and yes, it’s a parody, but I was definitely unsure at first) was hilarious and totally nailed how much tech/business journalism feels these days. Actually, three of my favorite articles this year were on hype in the video game industry, including Georg Zoller’s “The Video Game Industries Very Dark Night”—which I linked to recently and wrote a follow-up here—and Owen Mahoney’s “Derek Zoolander, Videogame Exec”. In particular, I like Mahoney’s focus on user experience as a guide to what trends will actually grab hold of customers. “The Matrix Lies“ by Evan Shapiro in Media War & Peace Evan Shapiro’s first person account of his experience with AI was hilarious. I think LLMs capabilities have significantly grown from last summer, and yet...my editor/researcher just had an abysmal experience using an LLM to do a quite basic task (which our LLM normally does each week) and the LLM made a mistake on every single data entry...along with seven different mistakes affecting twelve of the twenty or so entries, including mistakes that are explicitly spelled out in the prompt. That’s a brutal failure rate. Again, if you use AI/LLM for data collection, you need to take a lot of extra steps to verify and check the data. “Ghosts in the Balcony: A Cross-Country Trip to 58 Theaters Fighting to Survive“ by Matthew Frank in The Ankler I thought Matthew Frank’s pitch to head across America to visit theaters sounded insane aggressive at the time—at least it felt that way to someone a decade older than him; man, to be in your twenties again, am I right?—but I knew the result would be great. And it was, a terrific feature by a great young writer. Also, I loved Matthew’s recent article on who’s getting the precious few entry level jobs in Hollywood. (Hint: nepotism.) “Disney erased FiveThirtyEight“ and “Did Las Vegas get too greedy?” by Nate Silver in Silver Bulletin I love media history and analysis, and there’s no one better to get the history of FiveThirtyEight than from Nate Silver, who wrote about his personal experience in one of my favorite pieces from this year. I also loved Nate’s breakdown of what’s causing Vegas’ woes, but I’ll offer one criticism, summarized as “Might I suggest antitrust?” Many centrists/center-right/libertarian thinkers (Nate is self-described as the latter) often don’t consider consolidation or antitrust as factors in policy issues like housing, America’s military readiness, or, in this case, Las Vegas. Even if libertarians want to debunk antitrust/consolidation concerns, I’d love to read that debunking. In this case, Vegas is incredibly consolidated (though it also has been for a long time) and I’d have loved to read Nate at least contending with this factor, since he addresses almost every other potential factor for Vegas’ decline. “Why Microsoft’s Carbon Removal Pullback Is Such a Big Deal“ by Robinson Meyer in Heatmap News I’m a big supporter of carbon removal efforts, but this nascent industry faces a lot of headwinds, including this big move most recently. I think it’s clear that solar panels and batteries should be able to get the world to its carbon footprint goals, but effective carbon renewal remains necessary to prevent the worst impacts of global warming. “AI is killing the cheap smartphone“ by David Oks LLMs and AI will impact the world in ways we’re not ready for, and already, third world countries are seeing the prices of cheap cellphones skyrocket due to the cost of chips skyrocketing. This article by David Oks is a terrific breakdown. “100 Days of Madness: Netflix, Paramount, Warner and the Future of Hollywood“ by Wade Major at Hollywood Heretic Wade Major dove deep into Hollywood/streaming’s financials in this must read piece. Not that I agree with everything in this article (read my take on Warner Bros./Paramount here) but the analysis is top notch. I think many people discount how quality thinking, regardless of the argument/conclusion, will make you a better thinker. “Erased by the UFC: Frank Shamrock, The MMA GOAT of the 20th Century“ by Nate Wilcox in The MMA Draw Newsletter Growing up playing the UFC fighting game on the Dreamcast, Frank Shamrock was my favorite MMA fighter, and this history/tribute to him was great. Other Fun Reads “The Hardest Part Of History To Tell Is How It Felt“ by Craig Fehrman at Defector “Unmasking the Sea Star Killer“ by Craig Welch at bioGraphic “What Could Save the Industry? Fin-Syn“ by Richard Rushfield in The Ankler Alex Rollins Berg in Underexposed on movie bumpers, pillow shots, Disney trash cinema, cult films, and Casablanca. David H. Montgomery in YouGov’s The Surveyor on punctuation marks, condiments, dinosaurs, and comic strips and kids media. “How Medium finally pivoted its way to profitability“ and “Why the best journalists on YouTube are all former Vox employees“ by Simon Owens in Simon Owens’s Media Newsletter “It’s Not Just You, Netflix Shows Have Gotten Slightly Shorter: Here’s What the Data Says“ by Kasey Moore at What’s on Netflix “Numlock Awards: How Diane Warren became the biggest loser in Oscar history“ by Nathaniel Rakich and “Numlock Awards: The Oscar Bait era is over. The Oscar Chum era is here.” by Walt Hickey & Michael Domanico at Numlock Awards
Americans disgusted at Trump earning $1bn from crypto as president: ‘Obviously a grift’
Hundreds of Guardian readers expressed concerns over greed in the White House and a billionaire president unconcerned with high gas and grocery prices
Americans flocking to DC and Boston for July 4 weekend
Travel demand for Washington, DC, over the July 4 weekend is up 120% year-over-year, according to data from Trivago.
One year after federal funding cuts, Mississippi's Vietnamese health navigators face an uncertain future
More than a year ago, federal cuts to health-related grants threw into uncertainty Mississippi’s only advocacy group devoted to serving the needs of Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders statewide, and they are still working to figure out how to recover.
86% of fans say live sports are becoming a luxury experience
Davey Chadwick from YouGov Sport examines whether live sports are now reserved for well-off Americans.
Tricorn hats or Trump rally? Americans have July Fourth options
The United States is celebrating a jubilee – July 4th is the 250th anniversary, or semiquincentennial, of the signing of the Declaration of Independence, the foundational document for western democracy.
Scripps News poll: Americans excited to celebrate July 4, but divided on Trump’s role
A majority of Americans are excited to celebrate the country's 250th birthday, but are divided about President Donald Trump’s role in the festivities, a new Scripps News/Talker Research poll finds.
A heat dome with extreme temps threatens Fourth of July weekend
The heat dome arrives just before the Fourth of July weekend, when AAA predicted 72.2 million Americans would travel.
Trump's attack on trains taught me a lot about Americans
And spoke with those who want to invoke the 25th Amendment.
Heat Wave Politics: GOP Leaders Deride Calls to Conserve
With half of Americans under a major heat advisory, official warnings and response are colored by the nation’s deep political divide.
Mystery parasite leaves Americans battling ‘explosive diarrhea’ as CDC investigates
The CDC reports 145 confirmed cyclosporiasis cases across 17 states as the parasitic outbreak season climbs, with 20 patients hospitalized so far.
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/republicans-disastrous-health-care-agenda-leaves-millions-americans-without
House Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone Jr., D-N.J., and Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., today released their latest report monitoring the devastating impact of Donald Trump and Republicans’ Big Ugly Bill, which has forced millions of Americans to face skyrocketing health care costs and even drop coverage entirely.
U.S. filings for jobless aid fall to 215,000 as layoffs remain at historically healthy levels
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. applications for jobless aid inched down last week as layoffs remain at historically healthy levels. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits in the week ending…
Happy birthday, USA? At 250, nation may be too divided to celebrate
With President Trump stamping his imprint on the official commemoration, many Americans are struggling with how to separate politics from pageantry.
The diminishing political returns of a solid labor market
A rebound in the jobs market hasn’t been enough to get Americans amped about President Donald Trump’s economy.
A Nation Larger Than Its Politics
As America approaches its 250th birthday, I find myself wondering whether we have lost sight of something that earlier generations understood instinctively.Americans have never agreed on politics.We have argued over wars, taxes, immigration, religion, civil rights, economic policy, and the proper ro...
The president’s getting richer — but many midterm voters aren’t
Many Americans may not be feeling Donald Trump’s economic “golden age” — but the president’s bank account is.
The World Cup is providing connection and inspiration Americans need
My family did not plan to make the World Cup the centerpiece of our summer, but once it began, we couldn't stop watching.
Great-grandson of Wong Kim Ark praises Supreme Court ruling affirming birthright citizenship
The great-grandson of Wong Kim Ark, the Chinese American at the center of the U.S. Supreme Court case that established the constitutional guarantee of birthright citizenship, called Tuesday’s ruling a victory for all Americans, saying it reaffirmed that precedent.
Bickering Over Healthcare Coverage Disrupts House Panel Hearing
Finger pointing over the number of Americans losing health insurance roiled what otherwise would have been a technical House hearing over employee health coverage.
Party fever: Another political party is gathering signatures to get on Nebraska's ballot
A party that wants to put Americans and Nebraskans first is collecting signatures to secure a ballot line ahead of the November election. A similar effort is underway to establish a Nebraska Working People Party. Both efforts have a July 15 deadline to get enough signatures.
Congress celebrates 'Spirit of '76' for semiquincentennial
Each year, millions of Americans stream through the Capitol Visitor Center to see how our country’s legislative body works
Congress celebrates 'Spirit of '76' for semiquincentennial
Each year, millions of Americans stream through the Capitol Visitor Center to see how our country’s legislative body works
Americans step out for their nation's 250th in a proud moment sown with division and doubt
America has come to a landmark moment of pride and patriotism — and a time of division and doubt
Would Hunters Take A Lyme Disease Vaccine? We Asked
By Bram Sable-Smith and KFF Health News HealthDay ReportersWEDNESDAY, July 1, 2026 (HealthDay News) — It’s tick season, possibly the worst in a decade. More and more Americans are being exposed to these parasites as climate change expands the range where they can survive. That means more people are also exposed to the bevy of health conditions they can ...
Poll: Most Americans think the U.S. has strayed from its founding principles
Most Americans believe the country has moved away from its founding principles as the nation prepares for its big 250th anniversary, a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll finds. Eighty-three percent of U.S. adults feel America has strayed from the ideals the country was founded on two-and-a-half centuries ago. Among them, close to half of Americans — 47% — say the U.S. has "moved far away" from these principles, joined by 36% who said America has “moved
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
Politics: High Cost Of Healthcare And The Political Fallout
Americans are grappling with a rising cost in healthcare. For the first time in five years, fewer than half of Americans can consistently afford healthcare. That’s according to the latest data from Gallup. The cost of healthcare in the US remains higher than any other large, wealthy country. According to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services, five million fewer people are enrolled in marketplace plans for 2026, compared to last year. That’s as average premium costs rose about 58%.With health care costs increasingly becoming a stress for Americans, voters are now making the issue a top priority at the ballot box. And it’s an issue that crosses party and geographic lines. According to new polling from The Century Foundation, 71% of Democrats, 66% of Republicans and 75% of rural voters agree that reigning in hospital costs should be a top priority for lawmakers. While new polling from Ipsos and Axios suggests that a majority of Americans say they’re more likely to vote for candidates in November who will lower their health costs.How will the issue of healthcare shape the midterms? And how are Americans grappling with the cost of their health?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a.
The rising price of Trump's anti-science agenda
From measles to screwworm, Americans keep paying the price for the admin's war on science.
Americans’ views of the flag are divided by politics, age and race
Your Local News Leader
New study: Americans’ perceptions of the health harms of climate change
Awareness of climate change as a health issue is increasing, but polarization on the topic is, too.
Leading Colorado toward modern mental health solutions
By Sean Camacho America is facing a silent crisis. Millions of Americans are living with invisible illnesses like generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which decrease quality of life and, amid limited treatment options, create a vicious cycle of endless medications and, for many people, hopeless therapies. This […]
Alito blasts latest SCOTUS ballot ruling as invitation to ‘voter fraud’ risks
Justice Samuel Alito warns that counting late-arriving mail-in ballots could severely undermine Americans' confidence in election integrity.
Union Pacific And Norfolk Southern: How Politics Can Have A Body Count
Advances in goods shipment must be achieved not to bring harm to the trucking industry, but to protect increasingly acquisitive Americans from death born of their wealth.
Video Millions lose health insurance
Millions of Americans have lost Affordable Care Act health insurance this year as many faced double- or triple-digit increases in their premium payments.
Here’s where, when to see fireworks in central Pa. this week
You only turn 250 once, but Americans are going to celebrate that anniversary the usual way: with fireworks.
Americans' pride in US history and democracy drops, and fewer are proud to be American, polls find
A new AP-NORC poll finds that Americans have grown less proud of the country’s history or the way its democracy works over the past several years
Opinion: Bring back respect in politics
No matter your party or political persuasion, it is undeniable that American politics has taken on a tenor of anger and pessimism. This national mood has made American politics atoxic stew of rage, discontentment and despair. Many Americans don’t feel that the reforms they would like to see in their government are possible. These...
Zohran Mamdani says he and allies he endorsed carry a ‘national message’
Mayor says progressive peers who swept primaries speak to Americans ‘coast to coast’ as moderates have reservations
Americans find common ground on healthcare
Americans agree that healthcare needs to be better, cheaper, and less complicated. Good ideas toward those goals are bubbling up around the country.
Americans now live longer in Democratic-held House districts. Here’s why
Even as health care issues rise in the 2026 campaign debate, new data show that far more House Republicans than Democrats represent districts where the most residents face major medical challenges — and lack health insurance.
Slate is betting Americans want less car for less money
Slate unveiled the starting price for its tiny, electric pickup truck this week. It's betting that today's overly techy cars created a white space.
‘Photo I.D. should be at the core.’ Rep. Byron Donalds on polling that Americans favor requiring a photo I.D. to vote
14 unique ways to celebrate America’s 250th birthday
Fireworks, hotdogs and summer blockbuster movies are Independence Day staples. But this year brings a flurry of unique and alternative events where Americans can come together, put aside our differences,
3 million Americans have dropped Obamacare health coverage over past year, after Republicans let federal subsidies expire
KFF expects the total number of people in the government healthcare program to continue to decline throughout the year, potentially to a low of about 17.5 million from 19.2 million now.
The sky is not falling. Americans are getting healthier.
Despite declining obesity and heart disease rates, increasing cancer survival rates, and a record high life expectancy, politicians from both parties are pushing costly and ineffective policies to …
Five Million Americans Lost ACA Health Insurance—Here’s What That Could Mean For Public Health
New data shows 5 million Americans have lost health insurance through the ACA. A doctor breaks down the downstream consequences for public health in America.
DNC plans weekend of local events to focus on affordability concerns under Trump
Two years ago, Democrats were the ones accused of being indifferent to Americans’ anger about rising prices. Now they're pointing the finger at Trump, who has downplayed the impact of lingering inflation.
Screens are virtually inescapable. What are they doing to our health?
They’re in our pockets, workplaces, homes and schools — screens are everywhere. Americans are spending more than seven hours a day looking at screens. What is this doing to our well being? And does all this screen time affect different generations differently? Horizons moderator William Brangham explores what we know and don’t know with researchers Kostadin Kushlev and Courtney K. Blackwell.
Americans keep poisoning themselves with semaglutide, other weight loss drugs
These incidents became much more common after the FDA started approving GLP-1 drugs for chronic weight management in 2021.
Axios Live: "Health care costs are scaring people," Rep. Dingell says
Americans are not just thinking about the high prices of health care — they're afraid of them
Your Social Security benefits could be cut by a quarter in 2032. Here’s what to know
Americans’ Social Security benefits will have to be cut by roughly a quarter in six years due to depleted funds, according to a June 9 report from the Social Security Board of Trustees. That’s months sooner than the group had estimated in 2025.
DAVID MARCUS: In rural Maryland, petty politics takes back seat to World Cup fever
The World Cup and America 250 celebrations unite Americans beyond politics, as the Save America Act and Trump debates fade in small-town gatherings.
From The Sports Desk: The U.S. lost, but also saw return of star Christian Pulisic
The Americans may have lost their final group stage. But Pulisic, who had been nursing a calf injury, returned to action. He’s back just in time for the start of the knockout round.
Whole Hog Politics: It was voters, not Senate Republicans, who forced Trump’s hand on Iran
The early returns are in, and we can pretty safely say that Americans like the peace with Iran but strongly dislike the war that it ended. The truce is shaky, with hour-by-hour challenges that seem...
Dems put on blast over poll that shows record-low patriotism in US: 'Tear our society apart'
Rep. Harriet Hageman raises alarm over Gallup poll showing just 17% of Americans were "very proud" of their country, a record low in 25 years.
Justices Clash on Whether Race Played a Role in Trump’s Bid to Deport Haitians
The split mirrored one that has long divided Americans: how seriously to take the president’s loose, provocative and sometimes ugly remarks.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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