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John Donaldson, the father of Denmark's Australian-born Queen Mary, dies at 84
The royal house in Copenhagen says the father of Denmark’s Australian-born Queen Mary, John Donaldson, has died in Tasmania | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Ballon d'Or Favorite? England, Bayern Munich Star Harry Kane Tabbed As Frontrunner
Harry Kane is currently playing at a level that few are able to match, cementing his status as the premier marksman in European football.
Costco Just Introduced the Kirkland Product Fans Have 'Been Waiting For,' and It's Selling Out Fast
Costco’s Kirkland Signature Ultra-Filtered Reduced Fat Milk, which is remarkably similar to Fairlife 2% Lactose-Free Milk, boasts 13 grams of protein per serving and half of the sugar compared to regular milk, at a fraction of the cost.
How aggressive breast cancer turns off the immune system
Researchers are launching a new project to crack the mystery of aggressive breast cancer, where predicting disease progression remains a major hurdle. By studying how tumors interact with and suppress the immune system, scientists aim to identify new biomarkers that reveal how the cancer evolves. Using real patient samples, the team hopes to turn earlier discoveries into practical clinical tools. The goal: more precise, personalized treatments that can outsmart even the most dangerous tumors.
iPhone Fold’s Crease-Less Display Longevity Claims Will Be Scrutinized As OPPO Find N6’s Real-World Use Exposes Its Exaggerated Marketing
An OPPO Find N6 owner exposes the device’s false crease-less claims after a month of use, bringing pressure on Apple and its iPhone Fold
Black doulas work to bridge health disparities for Black mothers
Saturday marked Global Black Doula Day and the start of Black Maternal Health Week. Pregnant and postpartum parents gathered on the West Side for a community baby shower.
Fury dominates Makhmudov and calls out Joshua next
Tyson Fury marks his return to the heavyweight mix with a composed points win over Arslanbek Makhmudo, before immediately turning ringside to call out Anthony Joshua.
Small business marketplace opens up in Warren
Helping bring communities that are drifting apart back together. That was the push behind the launch of Hands and Heart United’s spring market Saturday afternoon.
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace Lowry has made at Augusta National.
‘Her recovery literally is miraculous’: Walmart Heart celebrates Church Hill girl after series of health issues
KINGSPORT, Tenn. (WJHL) — The Church Hill community gathered at Walmart in Kingsport on Saturday to support a girl who has made a remarkable recovery after facing serious health issues. Charleigh M…
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
Masters 2026: Shane Lowry erupts after hitting a hole-in-one on Saturday at Augusta National
It marked the second ace that Lowry has made at Augusta National.
Artemis II was a product of politics. Then it sent us over the Moon
In both 1968 and 2026, a mission to the Moon offered a refreshing blast of positivity for a conflict-ridden world. So what's different now — and what do we really gain from this new moonshot, five decades after the first?
It’s Time To Forget About The MacBook Air
Apple’s MacBook Neo has disrupted the PC laptop market while leaving the MacBook market relatively intact. Is there value in Tim Cook disrupting the MacBook Air?
Markquese Bell arrested, Cowboys safety facing drug possession charges
Cowboys safety Markquese Bell was arrested on both felony and misdemeanor drug charges. Here's what to know about his arrest.
'iPhone Ultra' Will Solve Two Key Problems
Apple reportedly plans to unveil a foldable iPhone in September, and the device will supposedly solve two problems with foldable smartphones. In case you missed it, a leaker on Chinese social media platform Weibo recently claimed that the foldable iPhone will be named "iPhone Ultra". According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, the device will have improved screen quality and overall durability compared to competing foldables.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Apple Highlights Photos Shot on iPhone During NASA's Mission to Moon
As we previously reported, astronauts aboard NASA's Orion spacecraft used the iPhone 17 Pro Max to take selfies of themselves with the Earth in the background during the Artemis II mission around the far side of the Moon last week. Now that the crew members have safely returned to Earth, Apple's CEO Tim Cook and marketing chief Greg Joswiak have both turned to social media to congratulate them on their successful mission and highlight the iPhone's involvement.
All eyes are going to be on Justin Bieber at Coachella
Justin Bieber’s headlining set at Coachella on Saturday will be important moment in his slow-walked return to the stage following a turbulent few years marked by health struggles and cancelled tours.
Alaska business plan competition awards Native entrepreneurs tackling rural service gaps
Alaska Growth Capital’s Alaska Marketplace competition awarded Indigenous entrepreneurs up to $20,000 to grow businesses addressing service gaps across rural Alaska.
Qualcomm's Snapdragon X2 Elite Extreme, Tested: Big 18-Core Energy for Laptops, Incoming!
Debuting in Asus’ exciting 16-inch Zenbook A16, Qualcomm's 2026 flagship processor looks like a benchmark bombshell ready to shake up the laptop CPU field. We have the receipts.
A key criminal case could soon get tossed because of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s comments
As Todd Blanche takes the reins at the Justice Department, a federal judge is set to decide whether controversial remarks made last year by the now-acting attorney general should lead to the unravelling of one of the Trump administration’s marquee criminal cases.
Vance, who wasn’t keen on Iran war, now tasked with trying to end it
The weekend’s peace talks in Islamabad mark Vance’s highest-profile assignment as vice president, with concomitant political risk.
Catawba Science Center celebrates Science Festival Month with 2 interactive events
April is North Carolina Science Festival Month, and Catawba Science Center will mark the occasion with two events focused on hands-on learning and exploration.
Trump Likes to Back Winners in Foreign Elections. the Upcoming Vote in Hungary Will Test His Clout
WASHINGTON (AP) — In Hungary, President Donald Trump and his top officials used social media and an election-eve trip to Budapest to promote the country’s far-right prime minister in his reelection campaign. In Argentina, the U.S. administration worked to prop up the country’s financial markets to ...
'Docs said I'll never walk': How this woman reversed her health with Indian food and is now baking healing cakes
Mira, born as Pallavi Kumar Aggarwal in Patna, has led a life full of remarkable turns. She studied fashion design, ventured into print modelling, and.
Lunar politics: Artemis and the US-China space race
The Artemis program is more than a return to the moon — it marks a new US-China power struggle. Analyst David Ariosto explains the race for resources and influence.
Local business expands to new market after recent acquisition
A Youngstown business is expanding into newer markets after acquiring J&L Supply Company.
Mamdani cleans up trash in the Bronx on his 100th day
Mayor Zohran Mamdani marked 100 days in office on Friday by cleaning up part of Soundview in the Bronx.
'Black market' business led to deadly CA explosion, prosecutors say | Ringleader arrested at Disney park
Man described as ringleader of black market explosives operation in California was arrested at Walt Disney World's Hollywood Studios.
Business Leaders Contribute More Than $200,000 to Heart of Oregon’s Legacy 25 Campaign
Heart of Oregon Corps, in collaboration with Central Oregon Builders Association, invited local businesses to “Make Your Mark” by investing in Central Oregon’s first youth workforce development campus at a special campus breakfast on April 1 that raised more than $200,000 from the corporate community, including a $100,000 gift from BASX. “We are so pleased to […]
Florida State University, City of Tallahassee complete hospital asset transfer, advancing FSU Health
Florida State University and the City of Tallahassee on Friday completed the legal transfer of city-owned hospital assets, marking a historic milestone
Wearables need to cross from consumer to health care market
They could repeat Fitbit's story if they don't cross over from consumer to health care products.
Manipulating Science, Manipulating Us
Four decades ago, I and Gerald Markowitz published an article in the American Journal of Public Health that attracted a fair amount of attention. The article was about the history of the introduction of tetraethyl lead into gasoline in the 1920s. The article detailed the controversy over putting lead, even then a known industrial poison and neurotoxin, into the gasoline that was powering the new automobile, particularly those that were produced by the General Motors Company.
Richard Roeper joins NBC Chicago as entertainment & culture contributor
Richard Roeper marked his first day on the job with NBC Chicago as our new entertainment & culture contributor, talking with Alex Maragos about how the movie industry has changed and what to see at theaters and on streaming channels this weekend.
Mamdani hits 100 days as mayor of New York City
As Mamdani, a Democrat, marks an early milestone in his mayoralty, it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to leverage his fame into achieving the progressive policy proposals that propelled him to office.
Retro NYC video store marks booming first year in business – thanks to growing Gen-Z demand for VHS, DVDs
It’s been a blockbuster year for this Brooklyn shop! Night Owl Video, the Big Apple’s sole remaining video store, is ringing in its first year in business this weekend – and is already...
Exclusive | Trump Promises Mass Pardons to Staff Before Leaving Office
In a recent meeting, the president said he would pardon those within 200 feet of the Oval Office, according to people familiar with the remarks.
Towanda farm market named national rural small business of the year
The SBA named the family-owned Shores Sisters Farm Market on Golden Mile Road in Towanda as its national rural small business of the year.
White House warns staff against insider trading on prediction markets
The White House recently warned staff not to engage in insider trading on prediction markets and other platforms, according to a White House official.
Business Week participants consider the cost of ‘doing business’ - News
The Lundy-Fetterman School of Business marked the 20th anniversary of its annual Business Week, centered on “The Cost of Doing… More on this post
Walmart CFO bullish on e-commerce growth, Marketplace potential - Talk Business & Politics
Walmart’s e-commerce business has become a meaningful contributor to the retailer’s growth, now comprising roughly 20% of the company’s revenue. Last year, Walmart’s e-commerce sales exceeded $150 billion, with 27%...
Health Care Roundup: Market Talk
Find insight on AstraZeneca, Novartis, Roche Holding and more in the latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector.
Canadian politician goes viral for using sprawling LGBT acronym critics compare to a Wi-Fi password
A Canadian politician's use of the lengthy acronym MMIWG2SLGBTQQIA+ during public remarks went viral, with social media users comparing it to a password.
Al Gore to Keynote 2026 Hollywood Reporter Sustainability Event
Marking the 20th anniversary of his Oscar-winning documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth,' the former vice president will headline the April 23 ceremony honoring TV dramas for their sustainability achievements.
Senator contacts leagues over 'gambling's ugly takeover'
As prediction markets expand partnerships with major U.S. sports leagues, a U.S. senator sent letters to six league commissioners Thursday raising concerns about "gambling's ugly takeover of sports."
NMSU political science students present at national research conference
New Mexico State University undergraduate students in the Department of Political Science, Public Law and Administration presented their research at this year’s Pi Sigma Alpha National Student...
NMSU political science students present at national research conference
New Mexico State University undergraduate students in the Department of Political Science, Public Law and Administration presented their research at this year’s Pi Sigma Alpha National Student...
Missouri sports betting market officially launched: Get over $3,000 in sportsbook sign-up bonuses, promos
Missourians can now place sports bets with mobile sportsbooks and get Missouri sports betting offers for the Missouri betting launch
Why the World’s Biggest TikTok Star’s $975 Million Business Deal is Suddenly Falling Apart
Khaby Lame’s landmark merger drew in traders and creator economy optimists alike, but the stock has since plunged more than 90 percent and major brokerages are restricting trading.
Unique X, Imagica Entertainment Media Services Partner to Transform Japanese Cinema Advertising Business
Digital cinema software provider Unique X and Imagica Entertainment Media Services (Imagica EMS), the market leader in Japan for post-production and media services, today announced the signing of a full long-term agreement, building upon their original Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This strategic partnership establishes a robust framework for an exclusive collaboration aimed at transforming and […]
Menopause products are having a hot minute. But doctors urge women to be wary of the marketing surge
Women suffering through the hot flashes, night sweats, mood changes and sleep problems that can come with menopause — all while looking in the mirror and noticing signs of aging — are being bombarded with products.
Peru's Dysfunctional Politics Are an Economic Time Bomb
Peru has gone through three presidents since October, yet markets have largely yawned: Country risk has edged up only marginally, credit default swaps remain well below their five-year average and the currency has even gained against the dollar.
Covista taps Walden University leader to integrate marketing, digital innovation
Health care education company Covista is expanding the role of Walden University President Michael Betz to include chief growth and innovation officer duties.
These auto brands are still rolling after 100 years in business
Today’s automakers almost seem more like tech companies than car manufacturers, but several American auto brands have histories that trace back well past the century mark.
20 years after passing nation-leading health care law, Mass. braces for new challenges
A landmark health coverage law passed 20 years ago gave Massachusetts among the lowest uninsured rates in the country. It inspired the sweeping federal overhaul known as the Affordable Care Act. Now many are wondering whether that period of intense negotiations and compromise offers lessons for today's urgent health care challenges.
Will Trump get a worse Iran deal than Obama? Here’s what to know
The contrasts are remarkable.
Aviatra Accelerators to host Women-Owned Business Crawl April 25 in Covington
Aviatra Accelerators will showcase a new retail marketplace during its Women-Owned Business Crawl in downtown Covington and MainStrasse neighborhoods on Saturday, April 25, from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. The event will feature more than thirty women-owned businesses – from retail shops to bars, restaurants, and service providers – across Covington’s thriving small business community,...
Former Trump White House insider says she’d bet the President did not get a heads up about the First Lady’s Epstein remarks
China’s K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
BEIJING (AP) — As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of o…
White House Warned Staff Not to Engage in Insider Trading Amid War With Iran
The directive came amid a surge of suspiciously well-timed trades on oil and prediction markets just ahead of crucial moments in the conflict.
Inside Ag: Nampa business bridges the gap between small vanilla farmers and the U.S. market
Is the Options Market Predicting a Spike in Tencent Music Entertainment Stock?
Investors need to pay close attention to TME stock based on the movements in the options market lately.
Mark Andrews has interesting response to Ravens' TE room changes
It was a strength, now it might not be.
China’s Huatai Is Seeking to Start Securities Business in Japan
Huatai Securities Co., one of China’s largest brokerages, is preparing to start a securities business in Japan as a revival in the country’s financial markets draws firms from around the world.
Open for business: Locals flock to Mount Pleasant Farmers Market
The April 7 opening day at the Mount Pleasant Farmers Market near Moultrie Middle School brought out a strong showing of residents and visitors. The weekly market featured locally-grown farm
Starting a Business
Marco Island has strong household income, steady tourism, and a customer base that values quality. On paper, it looks like an ideal market. But the longer you spend here, the more you realize something familiar: The opportunity is real. So are the constraints.
Iowa business leaders say hiring is sluggish across the state as labor market evens out
If you are on the hunt for a job right now and aren’t finding anything, Iowa business experts say that’s not unusual.
Oppo Find X9 Ultra full specifications, images emerge via premature listing
The Oppo Find X9 Ultra is expected to go official on April 21 across multiple markets, including China. Ahead of the launch, the device briefly appeared on China Telecom’s database. While the listing has now been removed, it revealed several key specifications and design details, as seen in screenshots circulating online. Oppo Find X9 Ultra […]
NATO chief signals allies may act on Hormuz, warns of ‘unhealthy codependence’ on US
Rutte signals a possible coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz after meeting Trump, but the White House says NATO was tested and already failed.
Acting AG Todd Blanche sends series of memos to staff marking his first official day
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche sent a series of memos to Justice Department staffers Thursday marking his first official day running the agency.
How national political analysts see the Wisconsin Supreme Court race
J. Miles Coleman from Sabato's Crystal Ball said far different results in Washington and Ozaukee counties could mark the end of the "WOW" grouping.
TNT Sports & DAZN Launch Landmark U.S. Partnership with New Monthly Live Boxing Event Series "The Fight"
TNT Sports and DAZN today announced a groundbreaking new partnership that will bring some of the biggest fights in boxing live to TNT Sports and DAZN
Inside The Business of BET: How Louis Carr Is Leading A New Chapter In Black Media
Louis Carr, the President of Black Entertainment Television sits down with Forbes senior writer Jabari Young on The Enterprise Zone at Nasdaq MarketSite.
New sports business major taps into Portland sports culture
For those dreaming of careers in fields like sports marketing or working with the Portland Trail Blazers, Adidas or Nike, declaring the new sports business major can unlock opportunity, according to Michael DeVaughn, dean of the School of Business. Beginning in spring 2026, the Bachelor of Business Administration in Sports Business will be available for underclassmen to declare at UP.
New sports business major taps into Portland sports culture
For those dreaming of careers in fields like sports marketing or working with the Portland Trail Blazers, Adidas or Nike, declaring the new sports business major can unlock opportunity, according to Michael DeVaughn, dean of the School of Business. Beginning in spring 2026, the Bachelor of Business Administration in Sports Business will be available for underclassmen to declare at UP.
Recruit of the Week: A 300-pound limbo champion? Meet college football's next elite LT, Mark Matthews
Miami currently holds a 247Sports crystal ball prediction for the elite offensive line prospect, with LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia all in Matthews' final four as well
America’s Furniture Stores Struggle to Survive a Frozen Housing Market
Retailers are going bankrupt and liquidating as record-low housing turnover leaves fewer customers looking to furnish homes.
Iowa-based Casey’s joins S&P 500, marking it as a top US business
The Ankeny-headquartered convenience store chain operates 2,900 stores in 19 states.
WTOP Elevates Local Sports Coverage with Expanding Focus on Video and Analysis
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Washington, D.C. (April 9, 2026) —WTOP announced the promotion of Rob Woodfork to Senior Sports Analyst, marking a significant step forward in the organization’s ongoing…
Expert Analysis | Discounting cannabis products at your business? Make sure to calculate tax correctly
New York’s adult-use cannabis marketing and advertising rules allow retailers to offer discounts, loyalty programs and other promotions — but only if the
Unrivaled Sports Partners with Under Armour and DICK'S Sporting Goods to Build the Future of Youth Sports Experiences
/PRNewswire/ -- Unrivaled Sports, the nation's leader in youth sports experiences, today announced landmark partnerships with Under Armour (NYSE: UAA) and...
Experts set 2030 nutrition science goals for resilient food systems
As the second quarter of the 21st century unfolds, experts are examining the state of nutrition as the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) deadline looms with five years remaining. To achieve these targets, a new paper outlines key goals for nutrition science from 2025 to 2030. The Frontiers in Nutrition publication discusses the interconnectedness between nutrition, food security, and sustainability in complex food systems affected by shocks, policies, and environmental limits. The researchers reveal how these modern factors impact nutrition science and shape research agendas.
Rep. Seth Moulton picks: Josh Shapiro or Gavin Newsrom?
Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who launched a primary challenge against Sen. Ed Markey to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Senate, answered rapid-fire questions on his decision to return money from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), his past comments about trans athletes and his stance on ICE. With the 2026 elections underway, The Post's Anna Liss-Roy is grilling candidates in races across the country, pressing Democrats and Republicans to share their takes at high-speed.
The Brief: Retiring business owners exiting to their employees
Greetings Agents of Impact! In today’s Brief: Featured: Ownership Economy For retiring business owners, employee buyout options can go head-to-head with private equity. ...
How IBM’s Masters campaign marks a shift in its sports strategy
At the Masters this week, IBM is showing off a shift in its sports sponsorship strategy.
Listen up: This is the leadership skill that businesses underestimate
New research debunks the introvert advantage. Plus: The U’s Technology Commercialization office marks a milestone.
Breaking: NVIDIA N1 laptop motherboard has been pictured, features 128GB LPDDR5X memory
NVIDIA N1 engineering board leak shows 128 GB LPDDR5X memory with SK hynix chips NVIDIA entry into the laptop market seemingly confirmed. An
Leaders Across Sports, Business and Higher Education Affirm the Value of Academics in College Football
IRVING, Texas (April 9, 2026) – As the National Football Foundation marks 20 years of the NFF Hampshire Honor Society and a record-setting 2026 class, leaders from the highest levels of sports, business and higher education are praising the organization's role in elevating academic achievement as a core part of the game. Their perspectives reinforce the Foundation's long-standing commitment to ensuring education remains central to the student-athlete experience.
Leaders Across Sports, Business and Higher Education Affirm the Value of Academics in College Football
IRVING, Texas (April 9, 2026) – As the National Football Foundation marks 20 years of the NFF Hampshire Honor Society and a record-setting 2026 class, leaders from the highest levels of sports, business and higher education are praising the organization's role in elevating academic achievement as a core part of the game. Their perspectives reinforce the Foundation's long-standing commitment to ensuring education remains central to the student-athlete experience.
Longtime Bloomington landmark Laserlite has closed. Here’s what’s coming.
The former Laserlite property is at 4505 E. Third St., just west of Bruster’s ice cream shop.
Mercedes reports drop in Q1 sales during 'transition year' for China market
Mercedes-Benz reported another drop in sales in its core car business in the first quarter of 2026 as the German premium carmaker lost further ground in the tough Chinese market amid an overhaul of its lineup there.
Big businesses in Downtown Pittsburgh pivot to remote work for 2026 NFL Draft
Some Downtown Pittsburgh businesses have a simple message for their employees during the 2026 NFL Draft: Stay home. Big companies like PPG, Highmark and PNC are telling workers they don’t have to fight traffic, navigate around the detours or deal with the hassle of finding a coveted parking spot during
Morning Sports: April 9, 2026
University of Wyoming Spring Football Practice: Today marks the halfway point for spring practices for the University of Wyoming Football Team. The Brown and Gold will hold the first of 2 scrimmages this coming Saturday, to see how far the team has progressed. UW Head Coach Jay Sawvel says the Pokes’ defense has had some […]
Oil price rises as markets question durability of Middle East ceasefire
Gas prices also increase, while global stock markets slip back after strong rally on Wednesday