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What trainers actually think about the 12-3-30 workout
Have we finally unlocked exercise’s biggest secret? Or is this yet another lie perpetrated Big Treadmill?
Scientists just recreated a rare cosmic reaction never seen before
A breakthrough experiment has shed new light on one of astrophysics’ biggest mysteries: the origin of rare proton-rich elements. For the first time, scientists directly measured a key reaction that creates selenium-74 using a rare isotope beam. The results sharpen models of how these elements form in supernova explosions, cutting uncertainty in half. But the findings also reveal gaps in current theories, hinting that the story isn’t complete yet.
Tim Wilkerson to be inducted into Illinois Sports Hall of Fame Class of 2026
The Illinois Sports Hall of Fame will induct NHRA Funny Car racer Tim Wilkerson into its Class of 2026, honoring his outstanding career and lasting impact on the sport of drag racing.
Virginia Takes Historic Action on Gun Violence Prevention | Center for Gun Violence Solutions
Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger has acted on more than two dozen gun violence prevention bills that will soon become law in Virginia.
Delta doubles down on premium seats as airlines target big spenders
Half the seats on Delta’s new long-haul planes will be dedicated to premium customers.
Xbox Is Having 'Very Big Discussions' About Exclusivity, Says Reporter
"There are very very very big discussions..."
Thunder's repeat bid, Lakers' health and four more NBA playoff questions
The 2026 NBA postseason is here. We break down six big questions, from the Thunder's repeat bid to Lakers' health.
Where to watch WrestleMania 42 on the big screen in Memphis
CM Punk vs. Roman Reigns on the big screen? WrestleMania 42 will be shown at the Malco Paradiso in Memphis this weekend.
The raw milk movement is dumb and dangerous, but don’t overreact
Drinking unpasteurized milk is risky, but there are bigger public health battles to fight.
The Salary Penalty: Why Trump’s Tax Bill Hits a Banker Harder Than a Plumber
These days the biggest factor determining what high earners owe the government is how they make their money.
Pirates’ Paul Skenes reaches historic milestone in 59 starts
As Paul Skenes continues to stack milestones early in his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates, the 23-year-old added another historic note Monday in a 16-5 rout of the Washington Nationals. Making just his fourth MLB start of the season, Skenes…
Spain Business Confidence Falls 2.3% in 2Q, Most Since 4Q 2022
Spain’s business confidence fell 2.3% in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, the biggest decline since the end of 2022, according to data from the Spanish statistics office. The survey showed 21% of business establishments expect a favorable quarter, while 16% are pessimistic about their business outlook.
Millions of Floridians Will Bear the Brunt of Trump’s Health Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Millions of people in the US are expected to lose their health coverage in coming years because of shrinking funding for federal programs. Few states would suffer a bigger blow than Florida.Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired in December. More than $900 billion in cuts to Medicaid safety-net programs are on the horizon. Across the US, in excess of 14 million people are expected to lose health insurance through 2034, according to health-policy research nonprofit KFF.Flor
The biggest takeaways from the new RFK Jr. tell-all, from addiction to affairs
An unauthorized biography on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is detailing the ups, downs and inner thoughts of the famed family member-turned-health secretary.
The Armory brings big-city fun and elevated dining to Maryville
It's a multimillion dollar project that has taken nearly a decade of development. The entertainment venue is also a full-scale restaurant and bar.
Big Money Is Betting on Bagels
High-quality bagels were once the sole domain of a few major cities. Investors believe they can take the breakfast staple nationwide.
Who’s giving big to Miami-Dade politicians this year? Townhouse builder tops the list
In county government, Miami-Dade Commissioner Vicki Lopez raised the most in political contributions to start 2026.
How Do Bigfoot Hunters Use Scientific Evidence? We Asked Two Sociologists Who Have Spent Years Among The Bigfooters
Bigfooting is a specific activity within the Bigfoot believer communities. Rather than being antagonistic to science, they mobilize science-like activities to support their views.
Microsoft Rejects Speculation It’s Axing Carbon Removal Business
Microsoft Corp., the world’s biggest investor in carbon removal projects, rejected speculation that it is abandoning its efforts to build out the technology.
Mendy, the big return, Arbeloa names squad for Munich battle
Real Madrid travel to Munich without players such as Courtois or Rodrygo due to injury, and without Tchouaméni through suspension. The season is on the line for Real Madrid, who head to Munich lookin...
Shades of Ferguson but Carrick needs a response
Michael Carrick seemed to be taking a chapter out of Sir Alex Ferguson's play book with his ferocious attack on the decisions that went against Manchester United last night. The big question is how will they respond?
Capela Delivers Big Night - And a First Career Three
Clint Capela dominates the glass and scores a season-high, sinking his first-ever three-pointer in a career-defining performance.
Wild weekend could bring big changes to race for Governor
"It was a wild weekend in California politics," said Adjunct McGeorge School of Law Professor Chris Micheli.
Laughlin entertainment scene draws tourists
Laughlin’s tourism growth is getting a boost from an entertainment lineup that’s drawing visitors from across the region, with big-name concerts, revived specia
Mandy Moore, Nate Bargatze, more stars reveal new movies at CinemaCon
The biggest names in Hollywood are unveiling their buzzy new movies at CinemaCon 2026, the Las Vegas convention for theaters owners.
Prep sports roundup: Norco moves two games up in Big VIII League baseball race
Corona Centennial upsets Corona 5-2; Norco rolls to 10-3 win over Roosevelt
Wazdakka Gutsmek rules revealed – Launch your own Speedwaaagh!
Lead your Warbikers to the biggest and best fights around.
Ranking top 10 transfer portal players still available in women’s basketball
The transfer portal in women's basketball has been open for a week, but some of the sport's biggest stars, like Jordan Lee, remain uncommitted.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Baylor S3E hosts, places 3rd at National Collegiate Sports Sales Championship
It may just be the biggest stage in sports sales for a student. Representing their schools at an NBA or NHL arena, students step up to the table with industry professionals (who may someday be their colleagues) and make their pitch. If it feels like an NCAA competition, that’s intentional -- and it’
Biggest US airline adds support for iOS 26 boarding passes in Wallet
All four major US airlines now support Apple Wallet's new boarding pass features. Here's how they work in iOS 26 on iPhone.
Xbox Game Pass ‘has become too expensive,’ says Microsoft’s new gaming chief in leaked memo
It sounds like Game Pass pricing will drop soon
Insurers Stand to Gain Big Business From Data Centers
That's how much S&P Global Ratings estimates data centers could pay in insurance premiums this year. That number compares to $5 billion a year for the entire aviation sector, the ratings firm said in a report Monday. The firm estimates the total insurable amount of data-center assets at $2 trillion
New ultra-premium foldable released internationally with big launch discounts
Motorola has now started selling its first book-style foldable. Available internationally, the Razr Fold undercuts the Galaxy Z Fold7 and the Pixel 10 Pro Fold with a massive launch discount and several wearable accessories thrown in for good measure.
EOU students win awards for their business ideas
LA GRANDE — Local university students and alumni made a big splash in April with their business ideas at the Eastern Oregon Innovation Jam. The Rural Engagement and Vitality Center […]
The next MacBook Neo already sounds like a big upgrade for one reason
Last week a new report on the MacBook Neo’s success contained details on Apple’s plan for the next-gen Neo, which could be a big upgrade.
'Metro 2039' confirmed for "Xbox First Look" show: New format will spotlight games throughout the year.
Xbox's showcase production team has been on a big tear this year, and another new format is on the horizon: starting with the return of Metro.
Hawaiʻi businesses reminded to file their second quarter annual business reports
The annual report filing period is related to the business entity’s registration date and can be filed at any time during the quarter in which the filing is due; second quarter reports must be filed by midnight June 30.
This week in PC games: sci-fi shooter Pragmata, 2.5D platformer Replaced, and the most wishlisted game on Steam compete with illuminated manuscripts
All the biggest and most interesting PC games out this week, inlcuding pirate sandbox Windrose, sci-fi adventure Pragmata, and 2.5D platformer Replaced.
Venezuela hopes to lure back international miners, but it's a risky business
Venezuela's effort to attract foreign investors to develop its gold, iron and bauxite seams has enthusiastic backing from the Trump administration but faces big challenges, including armed groups with deep interests in the chaotic, largely illegal prospecting industry that has developed over the past 20 years, according to nine miners, residents and community activists who spoke to Reuters.
Delta has big hopes to build a $5 billion maintenance business
A fast-growing revenue stream to watch at Delta Air Lines doesn’t have to do with Sky Clubs, new routes or more airplane seats. It has to do with maintenance.
Tractor-trailer careens into building in Clifton, NJ
The big rig driver careened into Limo Ride, a business along Kensington Avenue and Route 3, just before 2:30 a.m.
5 live shows bring big‑name entertainment to Northern California
From Bollywood fusion to pop‑punk, reggae and comedy, here some of the top shows coming to Northern and Central California this month.
Column | Where have all the computer science majors gone?
Computer science has been one of the hottest college majors for 15 years. Enrollment data suddenly shows a big drop.
How the AI and crypto industries are pouring tens of millions of dollars into elections
An analysis of campaign finance reports shows the web of super PACs backing — and going negative — on candidates with funds from big-name executives and companies.
Key Test Looms for South Africa’s Coalition, New DA Leader Warns
The new leader of South Africa’s second-biggest political party expects the stability of the nation’s coalition government to be put to the test when its larger rival holds internal elections next year.
Liverpool, the Grand National and the rumbling discord around Merseyside’s biggest sporting day
Those in control of the most powerful sporting institutions stand accused of understanding the cost of everything but the value of nothing
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States.
Wisconsin AD leaving to become deputy commissioner at Big Ten, sources say
Wisconsin athletics director Chris McIntosh is leaving the school to become the Big Ten's deputy commissioner for strategy, sources told ESPN on Sunday.
Iowa State Fair hints at expanded entertainment lineup ahead of reveal
DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa State Fair is not just another summer tradition this year. It is shaping up to feel bigger, louder, and more unpredictable as it ties into the nationwide America 2…
Iowa State Fair hints at expanded entertainment lineup ahead of reveal
DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa State Fair is not just another summer tradition this year. It is shaping up to feel bigger, louder, and more unpredictable as it ties into the nationwide America 250 celebr...
AD Chris McIntosh is reportedly leaving Wisconsin for role in Big Ten office
According to two reports, Chris McIntosh, Barry Alvarez's successor as athletic director, is leaving Wisconsin for a job with the Big Ten Conference.
Miami Dolphins are ‘big fans’ of offensive lineman Spencer Fano
Former Utah lineman could be the pick at #11 for the Dolphins.
Wisconsin AD McIntosh to take new position at Big Ten
Wisconsin AD Chris McIntosh is set to become the Big Ten’s chief strategy officer, reporting directly to Tony Petitti. Exact responsibilities are TBD.
Wisconsin AD McIntosh to take new position at Big Ten
Wisconsin AD Chris McIntosh is set to become the Big Ten’s chief strategy officer, reporting directly to Tony Petitti. Exact responsibilities are TBD.
End of the Orban Era: The Party Is Just Starting for Hungarians
In the end, the biggest surprise wasn’t just how resoundingly Viktor Orban was ejected from power but how swiftly the Hungarian prime minister conceded the termination of his 16-year reign.
'American Pie' star Shannon Elizabeth recalls dancing for Jason Biggs in 'difficult' audition
Shannon Elizabeth says the 'American Pie' Barenaked Ladies scene was flipped for her audition — meaning she hd to dance for Jason Biggs: 'I was really scared.'
Nebraska baseball loses series 2-1 on the road against Oregon
No. 19 Nebraska baseball (27-9, 12-3) hit the road and lost a Big Ten series to Oregon (25-10, 9-5), dropping two games in the weekend outing. The series was highlighted by a lightning delay Friday night, three Case Sanderson home runs and a close rubber match on Sunday.
Samsung to fix Adaptive Clock glitch in One UI 8.5 update
Adaptive Clock has a glitch on One UI 8.5 devices, and Samsung is working on a fix. The problem has been acknowledged by a community moderator, who promised the addressal with the next Beta software update. It’s already a big day for Samsung users, thanks to One UI 8.5 rollouts. Whether it’s new Beta releases […]
The Guardian view on AI politics: US datacentre protests are a warning to big tech
Editorial: In both Republican and Democratic states, scepticism and hostility towards an unregulated construction boom is growing
Coachella 2026 YouTube livestream: How to watch Karol G on Sunday
How to watch Coachella 2026 Day 3 YouTube livestream: Karol G, BigBang, Laufey, Little Simz, Kaskade, Young Thug, FKA Twigs, Subtronics and more.
Big Ten dominates 2026 preseason college football QB rankings
Jayden Maiava is one of four Big Ten quarterbacks to appear in a preseason list of the nation's best signal-callers. See which other QBs are there:
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
Many La Jolla students win big at regional science fair
Nearly 30 kids attending local schools win first-place awards and five are named Grand Award winners or runners-up
Up a ramp, finally off the big river
KALTAG — A few hours ago, Forest Wagner and I shoved our loaded bikes up a ramp of snow and onto Front Street.
Hearing aids can seem like a big step. This NYC Ballet principal dancer doesn't regret taking it.
According to the National Institutes of Health, less than a fifth of American adults aged 20 to 69 who could benefit from wearing hearing aids have ever used them.
Arizona State tennis programs head to Big 12 tournaments
Here are the events happening around Arizona State athletics from April 12-18, 2026.
Key South African Coalition Member Gets New Leader as Vote Looms
The second-biggest political party in South Africa’s ruling coalition appointed a new leader as it gears up to contest municipal elections that look set to reshape the country’s political landscape.
Why Did Gretchen Whitmer Go Soft on Trump?
The Michigan governor doesn’t sound like “Big Gretch” anymore.
📺 Sunday schedule (12): Brasileirão, derbies and crackers in Europe
Sunday (12) features big rivalries across Brazil and plenty of European football. Check the schedule and where to watch, and plan ahead!Brasileirão 🇧🇷11am - Athletico vs. Chapecoense: Premiere...
3 big questions for Tennessee quarterback battle after spring practice
Josh Heupel spoke in the future tense about the Tennessee quarterback competition. He needs to see more development. Here are factors to consider.
Exit Interview: John Byrne On Building Poets&Quants, Breaking Big Stories & What Business Education Really Needs
As he steps away, P&Q’s founder reflects on 16 years of growth, impact, and the evolution of business education.
Legendary basketball coach, broadcaster Dick Vitale reveals health status
The basketball world has come together to support one of its most legendary figures. Former NCAA and NBA coach and current broadcaster Dick Vitale has faced challenges larger than basketball. Recent reports revealed that Vitale has been dealing with numerous…
Local brothers use T-shirt business to give back to charity
Two local brothers are turning creativity into something much bigger than a business—they’re using it to give back to their community and bring people together.
Forget Masters leaderboard, Scottie Scheffler still biggest threat to Rory
Scottie Scheffler, the world's No. 1 golfer, made a significant comeback in the Masters third round, challenging Rory McIlroy.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
If You Visit JoJo’s Diner, Bring Your Appetite
By Stefan Yablonski Q: When did you open? A: We opened Oct. 1. Q: Did you have a previous business? A: This is my first business ever. Q: So why did you start this? A: I was cooking for people my entire life and I decided I’m just going to try it on my own. And here we are! Q: How’s business been? A: It’s been good. Kind of slow over the winter, but starting to pick up now that the weather is getting better. We have high hopes for spring. We were really hopping over the weekend when it was much nicer out. Q: What’s your best dish? A: Our junkyard plates are our huge specialty. It’s a huge messy plate of goodness. We also have breakfast sandwiches, waffles, smashburgers and more. Q: Do you own this building? A: We lease from Chuck Burger. He’s our landlord. He has been super helpful. He provided all the equipment. I didn’t have to. Q: You’re a breakfast spot? A: We do breakfast and lunch all day. It’s kind of our thing. We are open 7-3 every day except Tuesdays. Q: How big is your staff? A: Currently it’s one other person. It’s just been me on the front end and someone in the kitchen or vice versa. Q: It’s all to go? A: Everything comes out ‘to go’ — served in to-go containers. You can eat inside or you can take it with you. We don’t have to provide extra staff for waitresses and dishwashers and all that. Q: Do you have any business background? A: I did the small business program at the college. But that’s about it. We’re new, but we’re still building. We hope to grow and stay here for a long time.
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.
Maryland Curiosity Lab Children’s Business Fair Draws Big Crowd in Severna Park
The Maryland Curiosity Lab’s Children’s Business Fair drew a strong crowd Saturday at Park Plaza in Severna Park, where more than 80 booths filled the event with young entrepreneurs selling everyth…
Science Museum of Minnesota to host their biggest annual fundraising event
Steelers trade proposal sends Nick Herbig to NFC powerhouse
Could the Steelers send Herbig out of Pittsburgh?
Are the Bills better after offseason additions and departures?
The Bills made some big moves, including trading for DJ Moore and signing Bradley Chubb. Is Buffalo’s roster improved?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
High school sports a big focus
Sports reporter Brian Calloway is among the busiest people at the LSJ almost anytime of the year. That's especially true this time of year.
High school sports a big focus
Sports reporter Brian Calloway is among the busiest people at the LSJ almost anytime of the year. That's especially true this time of year.
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