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Millions of Floridians Will Bear the Brunt of Trump’s Health Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Millions of people in the US are expected to lose their health coverage in coming years because of shrinking funding for federal programs. Few states would suffer a bigger blow than Florida.Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired in December. More than $900 billion in cuts to Medicaid safety-net programs are on the horizon. Across the US, in excess of 14 million people are expected to lose health insurance through 2034, according to health-policy research nonprofit KFF.Flor
Trump, 79, Posts Bonkers ‘Forever Young’ Video of Himself Amid Health Fears
The AI-slop video depicted the president from age 4 onwards.
Microsoft Rejects Speculation It’s Axing Carbon Removal Business
Microsoft Corp., the world’s biggest investor in carbon removal projects, rejected speculation that it is abandoning its efforts to build out the technology.
Sparks surprisingly get Latson in 2026 WNBA draft
LOS ANGELES— The Los Angeles Sparks added versatility to their impressive roster by signing three key playmakers who are expected to make game-changing plays this upcoming season.
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Sade, Oasis, Wu-Tang Clan and Luther Vandross get into Rock Hall
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Billy Idol, Queen Latifah, Oasis, Sade and Joy Division/New Order are set to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame | K-DAWN
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Sade, Oasis, Wu-Tang Clan and Luther Vandross get into Rock Hall
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Billy Idol, Queen Latifah, Oasis, Sade and Joy Division/New Order are set to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame | 1080 WTIC NEWSTALK
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Sade, Oasis, Wu-Tang Clan and Luther Vandross get into Rock Hall
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Billy Idol, Queen Latifah, Oasis, Sade and Joy Division/New Order are set to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame | KNSS Radio
Scientists finally know where the Colorado River’s missing water is going
For years, water managers have been puzzled as the Colorado River kept delivering less water than expected—even when snowpack levels looked promising. New research reveals the missing piece: spring rain, or rather, the lack of it. Warmer, drier springs mean plants are soaking up more snowmelt before it can reach rivers, fueled by sunny skies that boost growth and evaporation. In fact, this shift explains nearly 70% of the shortfall, tying the mystery directly to the long-running Millennium drought.
Towards better vision: WHO South-East Asia regional meeting on eye health
The WHO South-East Asia Regional Meeting on Eye Health was convened to address the substantial and persistent burden of avoidable vision impairment in the Region. South-East Asia accountsfor nearly one third of the world’s blind and visually impaired population, with cataract, uncorrected refractive error, and diabetic retinopathy contributing to more than 90 percent of cases. The meeting responded to the need for coordinated action to achieve the 2030 global targets for effective cataract surgical coverage and effective refractive error coverage, and to advance implementation of the Regional Action Plan for Integrated People Centred Eye Care. It provided a platform for reviewing progress, identifying system gaps, and strengthening country pathways to accelerate universal access to quality eye care.
Support Black Maternal Health Week through donations
Diapers and wipes are being collected until April 17
WNBA Draft 2026: UConn star Azzi Fudd selected No. 1 overall by Dallas Wings
UConn guard Azzi Fudd goes No. 1 to the Dallas Wings, reunited with Paige Bueckers
Azzi Fudd became the seventh UConn player to be selected No. 1 in the WNBA draft when she was picked by the Dallas Wings.
Jennie Garth says she got 'bad vibes' from 'What I Like About You' co-creator Dan Schneider
Jennie Garth reflected on working with disgraced television producer Dan Schneider on sitcom 'What I Like About You' with Amanda Bynes.
Advancing Health Together: Progress Report 2025
Explore how Elevance Health works with care providers to deliver more affordable, connected, and high-quality care for the people we serve.
Luc Schrauf selected as Eberly College of Science spring 2026 student marshal
Luc Schrauf of State College, Pennsylvania, will be honored as the student marshal for the Penn State Eberly College of Science at the University’s spring 2026 commencement ceremony on Sunday, May 10, on the University Park campus.
Universe is expanding faster than expected: Scientists struggle to explain cosmic acceleration
Science News: Not only is the Universe expanding, but its expansion is actually happening at a speed higher than was thought possible until recently. For many years.
Antiseptic-tolerant germs spread through the air in hospitals, early study hints
Trace amounts of antiseptic chemicals in hospital rooms may be driving tolerance and resistance in bacteria, a study finds.
Project 2025 author Paul Dans drops primary challenge to Lindsey Graham in South Carolina
Trump reacted to Dans' announcement with a social media post suggesting that Tucker Carlson's endorsement of Dans had been the "KISS OF DEATH” for his campaign.
Epic Games Reportedly Developing Extraction Shooter Starring Disney Characters
Bloomberg reports that Epic Games is currently developing a Disney-themed extraction shooter as part of the studios' $1.5 billion partnership.
Diana Taurasi, J.J. Hardy among seven Arizona Sports Hall of Fame inductees
Diana Taurasi, J.J. Hardy and Frank Busch were among seven inductees to the Arizona Sports Hall of Fame in recognition of their impact on Arizona’s sports legacy.
Contra Costa Health nurses demand Board of Supervisors stop drastic budget and service cuts
Registered nurses with the California Nurses Association will speak out at the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, April 14, to demand that the board stop drastic budget cuts to save the Contra Costa Health system, maintain services, and retain nurses in the wake of the significant projected financial losses created by H.R. 1.
Utah Royals FC Welcomes Dave Tenney as Senior Director of Player Health and Performance
HERRIMAN, Utah (Monday, April 13, 2026) – Utah Soccer President of Soccer Operations Jason Kreis - overseeing Utah Royals FC (National Women’s Soccer League), Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), Real Monarchs (MLS NEXT Pro) and the RSL Academy - has named highly-respected sports medicine veteran Dave Tenney as the
Homo erectus' tools include stunning geodes and fossils, possibly as a way to connect with the cosmos, study finds
Homo erectus may have deliberately selected rocks embedded with fossils and crystals to craft their hand axes — possibly to serve as mediators between humans and the cosmos.
In Focus Maine: The state budget
@MarisaJacquesTV talks with state Rep. @dgattine, @rightjack58 and state Sen. Peggy Rotundo @mainesenatedems about the state budget, spending priorities and the projected impact on Mainers.
2026 MLB Power Rankings: What Are The Injuries To Watch For All 30 Teams?
Our latest MLB power rankings and how injuries have already affected every team so far.
Jeanette Gowen Cook named 2025 AAAS fellow
The American Association for the Advancement of Science selected the UNC School of Medicine professor for the prestigious honor.
Gas prices expected to rise again this week, analyst says
The national average for a gallon of gasoline on Monday is $4.12, according to AAA
SBA now offering help for small business owners affected by drought
the Small Business Administration (SBA) is now offering disaster loans for small business owners who've suffered finnancial losses due to drought.
SBA now offering help for small business owners affected by drought
the Small Business Administration (SBA) is now offering disaster loans for small business owners who've suffered financial losses due to drought.
Event report: Exploring the potential and applications of citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts
Report: the European Citizen Science Association’s new WG on citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts' first in-person event.
4A Games announces Metro 2039, and we're getting an Xbox-themed reveal stream later this week
Developer 4A Games and publisher Deep Silver have announced Metro 2039, the fourth entry in the post-apocalyptic FPS series. A full reveal is coming this week.
Smart Adhesive Is Key to Crease-Free Foldable iPhone Display
Advances in optically clear adhesive (OCA) will be a key factor in achieving a near-invisible crease in Apple's first foldable iPhone expected later this year, according to TrendForce. The supply chain intelligence firm outlined the key technologies in a new report on foldable display innovation, explaining that creases form when layers within the display panel fall out of alignment, concentrating stress at the fold and causing micro-cracks or permanent deformation over time.
Gray whales are entering San Francisco Bay and many aren’t surviving
Gray whales are beginning to break their long-established migration patterns, venturing into risky new territory like San Francisco Bay as climate change disrupts their Arctic food supply. But this unexpected detour is proving deadly: nearly one in five whales that enter the Bay don’t survive, with many struck by ships in the crowded, foggy waters.
Former K-State Athletes Barratti, Leeper Named to KSHOF Class of 2026 - Kansas State University Athletics
In an announcement by the State of Kansas Sports Hall of Fame, former K-State standouts Bob Barratti (track and field) and Nathan Leeper (track and field) wi...
IRA Financial Named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way
SIOUX FALLS, S.D., April 13, 2026--IRA Financial, a leading provider of self-directed retirement solutions, today announced it has been named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way as part of its 2026 annual Thank You Event. The award recognizes organizations that demonstrate exceptional commitment to supporting the Sioux Empire community through philanthropy, volunteerism, and leadership.
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
Meta Expected to Unseat Google as World’s Largest Digital-Ad Player
The owner of Instagram and Facebook has fueled growth with new advertising products and AI.
Scientists are trying to build a vaccine that works against almost any respiratory pathogen — here's how close they are.
A nasal spray in mice boosted lung immunity against viruses, bacteria and allergens — but a truly universal vaccine is still years away.
Midland County Sports Hall honors six inductees at banquet
Masterful coaching, Olympic heights, basketball glory, baseball excellence, and the power to convey them all in writing were honored Saturday at the Midland County Sports Hall of Fame induction.
Ohio health officials warn of sedative detected in illegal drug supply
The drug is called medetomidine, and it's being mixed with opioids, such as fentanyl.
Early voting begins this week. What positions are on the ballot?
Shelby County will effectively have a new set of elected officials after the election; many current representatives are term-limited or seeking other offices.
College of Liberal Arts and Sciences inducts 44 students into Phi Beta Kappa Society
Forty-four students were inducted into the prestigious Phi Beta Kappa Society by Mercer University’s Zeta of Georgia Chapter for the 2025-2026 academic year.
Business Travel Market Expected to Reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 9.5%: Allied Market Research
Allied Market Research published a report, titled, "business travel Market by INDUSTRY (Government, Corporate), by SERVICE (Transportation, Food and Lodging, Recreation), by TRAVELER (Group, Solo): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2021-2031". According to the report the global business travel market, valued at USD 689.7 billion in 2021, is projected to reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 9.5% over the forecast period — more than tripling in size within a d
FDA accepts previously rejected application for new PET imaging agent
The radiopharma firm hopes to soon begin selling Pixclara (Floretyrosine F 18), an investigational product for glioma, a type of brain cancer.
European chemical firms, hit hard by Iran war, to report falling Q1 earnings
European chemical companies are expected to report weaker first-quarter results, shedding light on how deep the impact from the war in the Middle East has been on an industry largely seen as one of the most exposed to it.
U.S. Small Business Administration Offers Relief to Colorado Small Businesses and Private Nonprofits Affected by Drought
The U.S. Small Business Administration announces the availability of low-interest federal disaster loans to offset economic loss caused by drought.
Sports tournament benefiting South Austin family impacted by fire rescheduled due to rainy weather
Saturn’s Magnetic Shield Isn’t What Scientists Expected
Saturn’s magnetic shield behaves in a way that defies Earth-based expectations.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles 2 DLC character Shinobu Kocho (Infinity Castle) launches April 17
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles 2 downloadable content character Shinobu Kocho (Infinity Castle) will launch on April 17, publisher Aniplex and developer CyberConnect…
Linux 7.0 Released With New Hardware Support, Optimizations & Self-Healing XFS
As expected the stable Linux 7.0 kernel was just released today in marking this next kernel release
Zohran Mamdani touted socialist philosophy of 'pothole politics' while reviewing first 100 days as mayor
"I was elected as a Democratic socialist," he said in a speech on his first 100 days as mayor. "And I will govern as a Democratic socialist."
Adam Kinzinger visits Tufts to discuss US politics, a look into the future
Members of the Tufts community sat in a packed auditorium on Wednesday evening while former Congressman Adam Kinzinger reflected on a decision that solidified his reputation and legacy within the American political sphere.
End of the Orban Era: The Party Is Just Starting for Hungarians
In the end, the biggest surprise wasn’t just how resoundingly Viktor Orban was ejected from power but how swiftly the Hungarian prime minister conceded the termination of his 16-year reign.
Connections: Build My Future comes to Rogers - Talk Business & Politics
More than 2,000 students from Northwest Arkansas were expected to attend the fifth annual Build My Future NWA Construction Career Day and Industry Showcase from 8:30 a.m. to 2 p.m....
Rockstar Games says hack will have ‘no impact’
Player data isn’t suspected to be compromised.
Eight years later, Apple quietly shuts the door on AI chief John Giannandrea
Since his retirement was announced in 2025, Apple Intelligence head John Giannandrea has been reduced to the role of an advisor, but is now expected to exit Apple Park shortly.
Hacking women's political underrepresentation, Dutch-style
Some 504 women were elected in recent Dutch local elections, with a "Vote for a Woman" campaign boosting their chances to gather preferential votes. Despite the record figure, women remain underrepresented.
Fighting for health care claim approvals
Trump announces blockade of Hormuz
President Trump has reacted to the failure of US-Iran peace talks by announcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Pokemon Champions Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards leaked
Pokémon Champions has already leaked details about its Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards. The next season isn’t expected to start for quite a bit. Pokemon Champions just launched this week, and alongside that, Season M-1 started up. It should be running until May 12, so the next one isn’t expected until at least a month from now. That said, if...
Medicaid Cuts Could Force More Kids to Become Caregivers
Trump’s Medicaid cuts are expected to limit access to home care services—potentially forcing many kids to become caregivers, warns Lisa McCarty.
New York Giants land 'surprise' defender in latest CBS Sports mock draft
In the latest CBS Sports mock draft, the New York Giants pass on commonly projected prospects in favor of a "surprise" defender.
Falcons projected starting defense with player grades
Projecting the Falcons starting lineup on defense with player grades
Minneapolis public safety debate back in a familiar place: anger, political squabbling
The Minneapolis City Council’s rejection of Mayor Jacob Frey’s public safety commissioner renewed the angry divisions over policing that have characterized city politics in recent years.
Home rule has protected Colorado cities for more than 125 years
Colorado is currently gripped by a political struggle. It’s one between the governor and state legislature in Denver on one side and populous “home rule” city governments, mainly on the Front Range — such as Colorado Springs. The state legislature in the past few years has been passing bills that applied to city government policies, […]
Reform’s Startup Culture Raises Risks Ahead of Local Elections
Earlier this year, as Reform UK official Shaun Wilkinson was shortlisting candidates for May’s local elections, he watched in astonishment as a superior remotely replaced one pick in the shared spreadsheet with a recent Conservative defector who he’d rejected.
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7 now costs more in the US
This means the Galaxy Z Fold8 coming in a few months could cost even more. The Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7, unveiled last July, is expected to get a successor...
Luzerne County Arts & Entertainment Hall of Fame announces Class of 2026
Luzerne County’s arts community will welcome a new group of honorees this fall as the Arts & Entertainment Hall of Fame unveils its Class of 2026.The inductees
One UI 8.5 rollout possibly delayed for these two reasons
With the 9th beta, Samsung has delayed the One UI 8.5 rollout for the Galaxy S25 series, and these two reasons could be responsible for this move. It’s expected that the 9th beta may not be the final, and we may have a 10th coming soon. These test firmwares may be released in April, and […]
Small Business Administration offering drought disaster loans to Colorado small businesses, nonprofits
On Friday, the Small Business Administration announced it will offer low-interest federal disaster loans to Colorado small businesses and private nonprofits negatively affected by drought.
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
Hornets aim to bounce back in season finale vs. Knicks
After clinching the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks are expected to sit a number of key players in their regular-season finale against the visiting Charlotte Hornets on Sunday.
Epic set to release Arc Raiders-like extraction shooter with Disney characters by the end of the year
Epic Games will allegedly release an Arc Raiders-like shooter later this year.
Rhode Island Marijuana Business License Lottery Blocked By Federal Judge Amid Challenge To Residency Rules
“Knowing the Act was facing legal challenges…CCC continued forward with its plan to implement the Act and its licensing scheme. The resulting fall-out will be, to be blunt, self-inflicted.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Currant Nearly 100 applicants vying for 20 new cannabis retail licenses that were supposed to be awarded via lottery as soon […]
Nancy Guthrie Update: ‘Something Went Very Wrong’ in Kidnapping, Expert Says
Ann Burgess, the inspiration for a ‘Mindhunter’ character, also listed retaliation and revenge as possible motives for Guthrie’s abduction.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Peru holds presidential election amid a decade of political tumult
In the span of a decade, Peru has seen nine presidents come and go. How has that affected this year's presidential race?
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid war fallout
Iraq’s parliament has elected Nizar Amidi as president, five months after elections failed to produce a decisive majority. The vote took place Saturday.
Letting kids swear taught me a better way to parent
By dropping the no-swearing rule, I found a calmer, more connected home — and fewer unnecessary arguments with my kids.
Microbial hockey: Scientists discover how bacteria rotate tiny pucks
At the Institute of Science and Technology Austria (ISTA), Jérémie Palacci's research group is venturing into metallurgy—albeit with a twist. Instead of traditional tools, the scientists use E. coli bacteria, ...
The Final Frontier Is Becoming Big Business. Here Are 3 Space Stocks to Buy Now.
The space economy is projected to grow to $1.8 trillion over the next decade, and these three stocks could be big winners.
Your nose could detect Alzheimer’s years before symptoms begin
Losing your sense of smell might signal Alzheimer’s far earlier than expected. Scientists found that immune cells in the brain actively destroy smell-related nerve fibers after detecting abnormal signals on their surfaces. This damage begins in early stages of the disease, well before cognitive decline. The discovery could help identify at-risk patients sooner and improve treatment timing.
Unusual airborne toxin detected in the U.S. for the first time
Scientists searching for air pollution clues stumbled onto something unexpected: toxic MCCPs drifting through the air for the first time in the Western Hemisphere. The likely source—fertilizer made from sewage sludge—points to a hidden route for contamination.
These women had their breasts removed to thwart cancer. Then came the pain.
Many women are afflicted by post-mastectomy pain syndrome, which spans from uncomfortable to disabling and can last years. It’s inconsistently diagnosed and treated, leaving some women in agony as they hunt for relief and struggle to find doctors who take their pain seriously.
Yankees news: Volpe slated to start upon return
Volpe expected to retake starting gig once healthy; flaws emerge as Yanks nosedive from hot start; Average salary in MLB rises; Mike Ford retires, takes role in Rays’ front office.
New Crimson Desert Patch Just Dropped With Many of the Improvements Pearl Abyss Said Were Due in the Coming Months, and Some It Hadn't Mentioned at All
Just a day after Pearl Abyss’ announcement of the various improvements it said were coming soon to Crimson Desert, we have a new patch that adds many of them already — and even a few changes fans hadn't expected.
Burnley XI vs Brighton – Predicted lineup and team news
Burnley host in-form Brighton today, aiming to narrow a ten-point gap to Premier League safety.The Clarets have moved closer to relegation after winning only once in 22 league games. Manager Scott Par...
Three Takeaways from the Rockets' Shocking Loss to The Timberwolves
The Houston Rockets' win streak gets snapped at the hands of the Minnesota Timberwolves in an unexpected loss at home.
Barcelona vs Espanyol – Predicted lineup and team news
Barcelona will look to make it seven La Liga wins in a row when they host Espanyol at the Camp Nou on Saturday.The Catalan giants have dominated this fixture in recent years — Espanyol haven’t bea...
Juventus predicted lineup and team news vs Atalanta
Juventus make the trip to Bergamo this Saturday night to take on Atalanta in Serie A.Only four points separate the two sides — Juventus sit fifth with 57 points from 31 games, while Atalanta are sev...
KSAT Sports' Mary Rominger and Ashley Gonzalez reflect on Women's History Month interviews
Mary Rominger and Ashley Gonzalez reflected on their Women's History Month interviews during KSAT Sports Now.
Yankees Not Making Excuses Over Brutal Offensive Showings
The New York Yankees haven't been playing the type of baseball they were expected to when entering the season over the past few days, and it's resulted in some tough losses. Offensively speaking, the Yankees only scored seven runs in the three games against the Athletics, including a shutout in the third game of the set.
San Antonio tax preparing business owner convicted of filing false returns, DOJ says
A federal grand jury on Friday found a San Antonio woman guilty on 11 counts of falsifying tax forms on behalf of her clients.
Epic is reportedly building an extraction shooter for Disney
Epic Games is reportedly working on an extraction shooter with Disney characters it plans to release in November.
Small Business Administration offering relief to Arkansas businesses impacted by drought
The U.S. Small Business Administration announced on Friday that small businesses and private nonprofit organizations can apply for low interest federal disaster loans to offset economic losses caus…
TikTok as an engine of entertainment consumption and conversion
New research conducted by TikTok in collaboration with Ipsos explores how social and video platforms drive real-world conversion and long-term IP value.
Manipulating Science, Manipulating Us
Four decades ago, I and Gerald Markowitz published an article in the American Journal of Public Health that attracted a fair amount of attention. The article was about the history of the introduction of tetraethyl lead into gasoline in the 1920s. The article detailed the controversy over putting lead, even then a known industrial poison and neurotoxin, into the gasoline that was powering the new automobile, particularly those that were produced by the General Motors Company.