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Visualised: how conflict, aid cuts and health-worker attacks are helping Ebola spread in DRC
The rapid spread of the virus has been intensified by misinformation and violence towards volunteers and treatment centres
Mass. House passes pilot for psychedelic mental health treatments
The Massachusetts House on Thursday passed language creating a five-year pilot program that would allow licensed mental health care clinics to offer on-site psychedelic treatments.
Erling Haaland jokes after getting special Google World Cup treatment
Erling Haaland, who led the Viking Row celebration after the win against Brazil, has now earned a tribute from Google.
NYU Langone, Other NY Hospitals Blocked from Releasing Trans Youth Health Records
In May 2026, a federal grand jury in Fort Worth sent a subpoena to NYU Langone Hospitals, demanding that they turn over the identities and sensitive health information of any patient who had received medical treatment for gender dysphoria at the hospital while they were under 18 years old between January 2020 through May 2026.
New robotic heart mimics common, mysterious condition to help researchers study it
A new robotic heart can recreate different stages of heart failure, potentially giving researchers a new way to test treatments before they reach patients.
Christ Hospital Health Network first in country to install, use new CT scanner
The system supports consistent CT imaging to help doctors visualize tumors and plan for treatment.
HEALTH FIRST: Managing cardiac sarcoidosis and heart disease
Megan Clark, a clinical pharmacist practitioner with Novant Health’s Heart and Vascular Institute, was in the studio to discuss the disease and treatment options.
Ebola misinformation is fuelling attacks on health workers in DR Congo
False claims about Ebola are linked to attacks on treatment facilities, assaults on health workers and disruptions to burials.
Experts weigh in on Michigan cyclosporiasis outbreak, treatment, tests
If you've had diarrhea and abdominal pain for more than a couple of days, infectious disease doctors say it's important to test for cyclosporiasis.
Scientists finally crack nature's secret for building better cancer drugs
Researchers have cracked the code behind bacteria's ability to naturally manufacture multiple versions of powerful anti-cancer drugs. The discovery could make it much easier to engineer new cancer treatments inspired by nature, including improved versions of existing medicines.
Cancer cases worldwide will soar in the coming decades, a report finds. Here’s why.
The World Health Organization tempered optimism about improvements in cancer treatment and said global health care inequities are driving more cases and deaths.
Oregon Health Authority Irks Residential Treatment Centers
In recent years, Oregon health officials, desperate to get people with severe mental illness and addiction into scarce residential treatment, have been throwing their weight around.
Study highlights health equity challenges, financial burden of aesthetic surgery complications
Researchers from UC Davis Medical Center have identified significant socioeconomic disparities among patients seeking treatment for complications after aesthetic surgery, according to a new study published ...
California dad who drove family off cliff has charges dropped after mental health treatment
A judge dismissed the charges Monday after Dharmesh Patel completed a two-year mental health diversion program with a Stanford University psychiatrist and a family therapist.
Spero Health Acquires CleanSlate, Doubling Footprint and Averting Shutdown
This is an exclusive BHB+ story Spero Health acquired fellow multi-state office-based opioid treatment (OBOT) provider CleanSlate Centers. The deal saves
Charges against dad who drove family off cliff dropped after mental health treatment
A judge has dismissed all charges against a California radiologist accused of trying to kill his family by driving his Tesla off a cliff in 2023
Microbiome science merges with oncology for better cancer treatments
Cancer remains notoriously difficult to treat, partly because tumors co‑opt their surrounding environment, including the resident microbiota, to evade immune surveillance and resist conventional therapies.
There's no treatment designed for the Ebola strain ravaging DRC. But now there's hope
The strain of the virus that's responsible for the current outbreak has no specific treatments or preventive measures. Three new clinical trials could provide possible breakthroughs.
Charlotte patients turn to ketamine therapy for mental health treatment
The club drug once known as "Special K" is becoming an unlikely treatment for depression.
Researchers Develop AI Test to Predict Recurrence of Breast Cancer
Breakthrough offers potential for faster, less costly predictions to help guide treatment
Exclusive: Rural health funds to fix prior authorization
Delaware plans to streamline the insurer pre-treatment claims reviews, widely criticized for delaying timely health care.
Millions may be getting the wrong cholesterol test
A new study suggests that apoB, a blood test that measures harmful cholesterol particles, is better than standard LDL cholesterol testing for deciding who needs more intensive treatment. Researchers found it could prevent more heart attacks and strokes while remaining cost-effective for the U.S. healthcare system.
Residents in eastern Congo cling to hope as a new Ebola treatment trial begins
At the Ebola treatment center inside Bunia's Evangelical Medical Center, in eastern Congo's Ituri province, the launch of the research was marked by urgency rather than ceremony.
Residents in Congo cling to hope as Ebola treatment trial begins
Survival will be tracked for 28 days after starting treatment
Scientists may have finally found how Alzheimer's kills brain cells
Researchers have identified a previously overlooked mechanism of brain cell death that appears to play a major role in Alzheimer's disease and frontotemporal dementia. The finding could lead to new treatments aimed at slowing neuron loss by interrupting the process before cells are destroyed.
Residents in Congo cling to hope as a new Ebola treatment trial begins
Residents at the epicenter of Congo’s Ebola outbreak are pinning their hopes on two experimental treatments.
Residents in Congo cling to hope as a new Ebola treatment trial begins
Residents at the epicenter of Congo’s Ebola outbreak are pinning their hopes on two experimental treatments.
Kean unveils mental health bill after return from depression treatment
Rep. Tom Kean Jr. unveiled a mental health parity bill a day after returning from treatment for depression and speaking publicly about his experience.
Residents in eastern Congo cling to hope as a new Ebola treatment trial begins
Residents in Congo's Ebola outbreak zone are hopeful as researchers begin a study of two potential treatments.
Gavin Newsom Signs Law Limiting Mental Health Diversion for People Accused of Crimes
A new California law gives just more flexibility to keep defendants in jail rather than releasing them to community-based mental health treatment programs.
A hidden weakness in deadly cancers could lead to powerful new treatments
A UCLA study has identified a hidden Achilles' heel in aggressive small cell cancers that have resisted new treatments for decades. Scientists found that tumors lacking the RB gene become critically dependent on the protein E2F3 for survival. Blocking E2F3 shut down tumor growth in laboratory models, and existing FDA-approved drugs may be able to exploit this vulnerability. The discovery could pave the way for faster development of more effective therapies.
The New Anthropic Tool That Could Change How Drugs Are Developed
Introducing Claude Science, the AI platform designed to expedite the discovery of promising new therapies. Anthropic will also use it in-house to pursue innovative treatments for 'neglected' diseases.
New adenomyosis atlas reveals lesion-specific signals that may spare healthy uterine tissue
Researchers at the University of Liverpool have identified distinctive biological characteristics within adenomyosis lesions that could help pave the way for more targeted, less invasive treatments. The ...
The real cause of a common stroke may have been missed for decades
Scientists have discovered that a common type of stroke may have a very different cause than doctors once thought. Instead of fatty plaque clogging arteries, the strongest link was found with enlarged and damaged blood vessels deep within the brain. The finding helps explain why standard treatments like aspirin are often less effective and is driving the search for new therapies that target the brain’s tiny blood vessels directly.
Trial for Bundibugyo Ebola treatment starts in DRC, WHO says
A treatment trial for the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo enrolled its first patient on Thursday, marking a milestone in efforts to combat the epidemic, WHO chief Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters.
Marshall Health Network first in West Virginia to offer histotripsy treatment for liver tumors
HUNTINGTON, W.Va. – Marshall Health Network–Cabell Huntington Hospital (CHH) is the first hospital in West Virginia to treat liver tumors using the Edison® Histotripsy System, giving patients access to an advanced treatment that targets tumors with focused sound waves instead of surgery, chemotherapy or radiation. The Edison Histotripsy System uses image-guided sonic beam therapy to precisely target […]
Scientists discover a protein switch that burns fat and blocks new fat cells
A protein called “Mitch” may hold the key to a new generation of obesity treatments. Researchers found that disabling it in human cells boosts fat burning, increases energy use, and makes it harder for new fat cells to develop. The findings help explain why mice lacking Mitch were leaner, more athletic, and resistant to obesity.
Patient enrolment begins in a scientific trial to identify the first effective treatments for Bundibugyo virus disease
In a major international effort to evaluate potential treatments for Ebola disease due to Bundibugyo virus (BVD), the PARTNERS clinical trial has opened enrolment today for patients in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Croatia criticised for ‘unambitious’ changes to 2022 science law
Croatia’s science ministry has been accused of a lack of ambition, and even incompetence, over proposed changes to the country’s 2022 science law. Critics say an opportunity has been missed to fix wider shortcomings in the research and universities system.“This law, like all the previous ones, will not significantly change the current state of science in Croatia,” Vlatko Silobrčić, a member of the Croatian Academy of Sciences, told Science Business. “A small shift here and there will not have a significant impact.”The 2022 law introduced multi-year block grant financing of research, based on results, and changes intended to boost employment and career progression for researchers and lecturers. But implementation of the law has been uneven. “It became apparent that certain of its provisions were subject to different interpretations by higher education institutions and scientific institutes,” the science ministry said in its proposal for change. “This caused legal uncertainty in the system, administrative difficulties in implementation and, in certain cases, unequal treatment of teachers, scientists and students.”Most of the proposed amendments deal with technicalities in hiring and promoting staff, such as extending the committee deadlines from 60 to 90 days, or allowing applicants to cite all of their achievements and not only those since their last appointment.Both the ministry and Croatian media highlighted changes that would raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 years and allow part-time students 15 year rather than 10 years to finish their studies.The change to retirement age has been criticised for reinforcing a weakness in the system. According to Matko Marušić, professor emeritus at the University of Split, this will “allow unproductive teachers to advance and work longer, while hindering and discouraging productive ones.”A longtime campaigner for excellence-based meritocracy, he sees little hope in the new legislation. “I am not optimistic that things will improve,” he told Science Business. “As recent changes to the law in Croatia show, the legal framework is becoming increasingly hypocritical and harmful.”For Marušić, who analyses Croatia's university system in a recently published book, the situation is “unfavourable and constantly deteriorating” due to the criteria used for academic advancement.“The key criterion for advancement should be scientific productivity,” he said. “In Croatia [. . .] scientific criteria are increasingly lowered, and ineffective and absurd criteria such as waiting times for promotion and age limits for remaining in a job are promoted.” He would also like to see better criteria for the quality of teaching at universities. “In practice, teaching is not monitored or evaluated,” he said, estimating that up to a third of teaching simply does not take place. “Under the guise of university autonomy and bad laws, universities and faculties are allowed to earn additional money by increasing enrolment quotas that have nothing to do with the needs of the labour market.” Lack of ambitionDora Kršul, a reporter at Telegram.hr who covers science policy in Croatia, finds the rationale for changes “bizarre.” “The ministry responsible for supervising the uniform application of the law is changing the law because it is being implemented unevenly,” she said. “This primarily speaks to the power relationship in the sphere of science and higher education in Croatia, that is, the question arises as to who actually manages this system.”Rather than raising quality, she continued, the changes appear to be designed to help vocational and applied universities who have not been complying with the law.The Independent Union of Research and Higher Education Employees of Croatia said that the changes were “unambitious” and represent a missed opportunity for more important changes. “We think some of the changes are even negative,” it said in its statement on June 25. One of these is introduction of an “assistant” job title that allows people to be hired only for the duration of a project. Related articles: Elections to top science bodies test Croatia’s gender equality in researchSlovakia revises R&D approach to increase focus on competitivenessLatvia pilots citizen engagement in research grant evaluationsThe union’s president, Tvrtko Smital, who was part of the 15-member working group tasked with drafting the changes, told the local media there was a “worrying lack of ambition” in the process, and “lack of competence” in terms of research experience and understanding the problems in the system.“There is no clear will to deal with the problems,” said Smital, an assistant professor of marine and environmental sciences at the Ruđer Bošković Institute in Zagreb. “It’s a combination of unambitiousness and incompetence,” he went on, expressing his “deep frustration” with the situation. “There is no strategy, no clear thinking, and money is not being spent optimally.”Croatia’s science ministry has not responded to requests for comment.
James Ransone coroner report shows actor's mental health struggles
"The Wire" actor James Ransone wanted mental health treatment before his death by suicide at 46, according to a medical examiner's report.
Congressman Tom Kean’s hospital treatment for depression may encourage men’s mental health
When a Republican, male politician spoke publicly about a leave he took to get help for his depression, the US saw something uncommon and needed, experts say.
Records show prior mental health petition for man accused of killing grandmother in Farmington Hills
Records show a petition was filed over three years ago seeking court-ordered mental health treatment for the 34-year-old man accused of killing his grandmother inside the home they shared in Farmington Hills.
ARDS patients improve with experimental treatment
JUPITER, Fla. — Doctors have few options for patients who develop a life-threatening lung condition called acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS. A…
N.I.H. Announces World’s Largest Integrated Health Database
It contains more than half a million people’s genomes, paired with clinical records and wearable tech data. That gives researchers unmatched power to study both diseases and treatments.
Leading Colorado toward modern mental health solutions
By Sean Camacho America is facing a silent crisis. Millions of Americans are living with invisible illnesses like generalized anxiety disorder (GAD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which decrease quality of life and, amid limited treatment options, create a vicious cycle of endless medications and, for many people, hopeless therapies. This […]
Scientists cured sickle cell. Then their next challenge began.
Gene editing has delivered remarkable results against sickle cell disease. Now researchers are working to make these personalized treatments faster, cheaper, and available to far more patients.
Scientists say creatine may help fight depression
Creatine is best known as a muscle-building supplement, but scientists are now investigating whether it could also help treat depression by boosting the brain's energy supply. A new review examined five randomized clinical trials involving 238 participants and found mixed results. Two studies, both involving women with major depressive disorder, reported that adding creatine to standard treatment improved symptoms, while three others found no meaningful benefit.
Gavin Newsom signs law limiting mental health diversion for people accused of crimes
A new California law gives just more flexibility to keep defendants in jail rather than releasing them to community-based mental health treatment programs.
Cost and utilization of inpatient mental health and substance use treatment - Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker
Approximately 1 in 5 people with private health insurance have any mental illness, and 1 in 20 have a serious mental illness. This brief examines inpatient mental health and substance use treatment admissions in 2023 among adults aged 18-64 with large employer-sponsored health insurance plans. Private insurance enrollees constitute roughly a quarter (26%) of mental […]
Pierce Johnson's NSFW Reds-Pirates HR reaction gets Jomboy treatment
Reds relief pitcher Pierce Johnson had an animated, NSFW reaction to allowing an eighth-inning home run in Pittsburgh.
Minneapolis council member taking leave for mental health treatment, cites turmoil in city
Council Member Aisha Chughtai said the city’s various challenges in recent months have taken their toll on her.
Scientists discover an unexpected way to make pancreatic cancer cells self-destruct
Researchers tested experimental PCAI compounds against pancreatic cancer cells and found they had powerful anticancer effects. One leading compound blocked more than 90% of cancer cell migration, suggesting it could help prevent the spread of tumors. Rather than suppressing cancer signaling, the treatment hyperactivated key pathways until the cells essentially self-destructed.
My wait for a psychiatric bed in Denver highlights this nation’s overburdened system (Opinion)
Just before my birthday, a Denver doctor placed me on an involuntary 72-hour mental health hold. What came next wasn’t treatment but a drawn-out search for a bed, as the U.S. grapples with a shortage for those in crisis.
People are taking allergy and heartburn pills for PMS. Could it work?
Can the mix really help with premenstrual woes? Theoretically, the link between histamine and hormones could explain why the trendy DIY treatment seems to help some women.
AB Science reports completion of the step 3 of phase 1, evaluating the combination of AB8939 with venetoclax for the treatment of refractory or relapsed AML
PRESS RELEASE AB SCIENCE REPORTS COMPLETION OF THE STEP 3 OF PHASE 1, EVALUATING THE COMBINATION OF AB8939 WITH VENETOCLAX FOR THE TREATMENT OF REFRACTORY OR RELAPSED ACUTE MYELOID LEUKEMIA THE COMBINATION OF AB8939 WITH VENETOCLAX GENERATED A 67% OVERALL RESPONSE RATE (ORR) AND A 100% DISEASE CONTROL RATE (DCR), WITH NO DOSE-LIMITING TOXICITIES (DLT) OBSERVED, IN A POOR-PROGNOSIS POPULATION WITH ADVERSE GENETICS TREATED IN THE SECOND - TO FOURTH-LINE RELAPSED OR REFRACTORY SETTING Paris, June 2
Concerns with the Sebastian County Sheriff’s office
The recently-surfaced video showing the potential maltreatment of a Sebastian County Jail inmate, and a subsequent statement about the troubling incident from interim Sheriff Mike Conger point to the need...
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
What science tells us about the algae bloom in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool
Algal blooms are not maintenance failures requiring paint or treatment with hydrogen peroxide and nanobubbles. They are ecological warning signs.
These tiny soil microbes could rescue crops from salty farmland
Researchers have discovered that beneficial soil bacteria give plants an unexpected survival advantage in salty soils. Instead of helping plants keep salt out, the microbes stimulate the production of lignin, a natural compound that strengthens roots and makes plants more resilient. Greenhouse and field tests showed healthier plants and higher yields in salty conditions. The findings could lead to bio-based treatments that help farmers grow crops on land once considered too salty for agriculture.
Science & Medicine: Scanning the brain to improve treatment for traumatized teens
Around 20% of teens who have experienced emotional trauma don't respond to talk therapy. UT Health San Antonio is using neuroimaging to track brain changes in traumatized teens during a course of therapy to see if they can figure out why, which could lead to the development of more personalized treatments that will help more teens heal.
Texas Mental Health Program Reveals 103% Increase in Veteran Enrollment
Emory University treatment is expanding throughout the state at no cost, but many veterans remain unaware of their services.
Patients can save thousands with drug coupons, but only if insurers honor them
Patients who rely on co-pay assistance from drugmakers are typically heavy users of health care for whom delays in treatment or worsening conditions can lead to higher costs, according to patient advocates.
Could 'humanmaxxing' actually help you live longer? Here's what experts say
Humanmaxxing is the latest wellness trend focused on maximizing human potential through biohacking, longevity science and advanced medical treatments.
Could 'humanmaxxing' actually help you live longer? Here's what experts say
Humanmaxxing is the latest wellness trend focused on maximizing human potential through biohacking, longevity science and advanced medical treatments.
Design and Early Implementation Outcomes of a Mobile Health-Enabled Social Support Intervention for Adults Living With HIV and Type 2 Diabetes in Uganda
Background: Adults living with HIV and type 2 diabetes experience complex treatment demands that affect medication-taking, clinic attendance, privacy, social support, and engagement with care. M...
The Chicago Bears are getting their own Hallmark Christmas movie
The Chicago Bears are the latest NFL franchise to get the Hallmark Christmas movie treatment. The team announced Thursday that it is partnering with Hallmark Media, the NFL, and Skydance Sports for Holiday Touchdown: A Bears Love Story, which will premiere during Hallmark Channel’s 17th annual Countdown to Christmas programming event this holiday season. “My…
Your health insurer shouldn’t decide your treatment plan. That’s what your doctor (and possibly AI) should be doing.
With a digital health record, clinicians and AI-driven diagnostic tools would be able to see your full health history — and then make better decisions.
New vitamin B12 therapy shows promise against deadly brain cancer
Researchers have identified a vitamin B12–based compound that can cross the blood-brain barrier and home in on glioblastoma tumors. In animal studies, the compound accumulated preferentially in tumor tissue and delivered sustained nitric oxide directly to cancer cells. It also worked synergistically with existing glioblastoma treatments, significantly enhancing their tumor-fighting effects.
Scientists discover what triggers belly fat as we age
Aging may trigger the appearance of specialized stem cells that supercharge the body's ability to create new belly fat. The discovery reveals a potential biological driver of middle-age weight gain and a promising target for future anti-obesity treatments.
Testing gives science-based data for Fairmont lakes
FAIRMONT— A partnership between the city of Fairmont and Minnesota State University-Mankato will result in comprehensive scientific data on the Fairmont Chain of Lakes. The $25,000 contract started on April 1 and will go through Dec. 31 of this year. Fairmont’s Water Resources Coordinator, Hannah Neusch, acknowledged that while the water treatment plant in Fairmont […]
Scientists infected a 'vagina on a chip' with gonorrhea — then cured it with a new antibiotic found by AI
To sift through 6 million molecules in pursuit of new gonorrhea treatments, researchers trained AI to select the best drug candidate and then tested it in a "vagina on a chip."
Shockwave Medical announces new studies evaluating carotid IVL platform
Carotid artery disease causes up to 30% of all strokes, but severely calcified lesions can make treatment quite complex. The hope is that IVL can be as successful in this area as it has been in the treatment of coronary and peripheral artery disease.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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