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The brain's memory center doesn't start as a blank slate, study suggests
Early in life, neural networks in the brain's memory center are highly connected, and they are only later refined into precise systems, a mouse study finds.
Red-light therapy does have health benefits but not the ones you think
Red-light therapy promises to treat everything from acne and hair loss to depression and chronic pain. Many of these claims are overhyped, but evidence suggests it can have healing powers
Eggs and brain health: New study cracks open Alzheimer’s link
A long-term study suggests that eating eggs regularly may be associated with a lower risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease in older adults.
Icy object beyond Pluto has an atmosphere that shouldn't exist, study suggests
Observations suggest there's a small, icy object with an atmosphere beyond Pluto, challenging assumptions about which bodies can sustain atmospheres.
'I was not looking for this': Scientist accidentally finds shortcut to Mars that could slash travel time in half
A new study suggests early asteroid trajectory data could help design faster Mars missions, potentially cutting round-trip travel time to under a year.
Leaker suggests seven new features coming to iPhone 20 – but read with care
Leaker Instant Digital has a decent track record when it comes to iPhones, but their latest post may need to...
Clearwater left in the dark on Scientology-linked entertainment project
Clearwater officials say a $50M EVO project lacks approvals or a formal proposal, despite public messaging that suggests it is moving forward.
Politicians are not ignoring you, statistical analysis suggests
If you're registered to vote in the United States and you're not among the richest of the rich, political scientist Peter K. Enns has a message for you: Your voice still matters. So does data analysis ...
Opinion: Young people make nonprofit boards better. Here’s how.
Research suggests that young people have greater optimism, creativity, and motivation to drive social change than other age groups.
A small object past Pluto may have a thin atmosphere
A brief stellar eclipse suggests the tiny 2002 XV93 has a thin atmosphere — a first for any solar system body farther from the sun than Pluto.
This simple amino acid supplement greatly reduces Alzheimer’s damage
A new study suggests a surprisingly simple compound could help fight Alzheimer’s disease. Researchers found that arginine—an inexpensive amino acid already considered safe—can reduce the buildup of toxic amyloid proteins in the brain, a hallmark of the disease. In animal models, oral arginine not only lowered harmful protein deposits but also improved behavior and reduced brain inflammation.
Mars will tear its own moon apart. Now scientists think it could be sooner – and more destructive – than expected | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
New modelling suggests the Martian moon Phobos’s demise could be earlier – and much more dramatic – than we expected
Physicists just found a tiny flaw in time itself
Physicists are rethinking one of quantum mechanics’ biggest puzzles: how fuzzy possibilities become definite reality. New research suggests that spontaneous “collapse” processes—possibly linked to gravity—could subtly blur time itself. This wouldn’t affect clocks we use today, but it reveals a hidden limit to how precise time can ever be. The findings open a new path toward uniting quantum physics with gravity.
Even a little alcohol here and there damages brain health, study shows
Even people who never exceed the recommended limits for alcohol consumption are likely to experience brain health problems as they age, a new study suggests.
Are your memories real? Physicists revisit the Boltzmann brain paradox
A new analysis of the “Boltzmann brain” paradox suggests our memories and sense of reality could, in theory, be random illusions born from cosmic chaos. By uncovering circular reasoning in how physicists think about time and entropy, the study raises fresh doubts about what we can truly know about the past.
Scientists Say They’ve Figured Out What Causes “Ghosts”
New research suggests that inaudible sound waves produced by old buildings could be behind why we perceive the presences of ghosts.
Reggie Fils-Aimé Says Amazon Asked Nintendo To Break The Law
A recent lecture at NYU suggests the unstable relationship between the gaming and e-commerce giants dates all the way back to the Nintendo DS
Scientists Uncover “Astonishing” Hidden Property of Light
A newly uncovered property of light suggests it may be far more self-sufficient than previously believed.
Corruption, politics, and a former FBI agent: Lorain County ‘s government scandal explained
The Lorain County Sheriff's public corruption unit raided multiple county facilities — and a key investigator's identity suggests this is no political stunt.
Building useful quantum computers ‘in our direct line of sight’
Researchers say creation of startups suggests game-changing tech may be developing at faster pace than expected.
Scientists just discovered what is fueling cows’ potent burps
A newly discovered structure inside microbial cells in cows’ guts called the ‘hydrogenobody’ may play a key role in methane production, a new study suggests
Can AI help doctors avoid missed diagnoses? A new study suggests yes
AI may help doctors avoid missed diagnoses, but it still needs real-world testing and human oversight before it can guide patient care.
New study suggests coffee supports gut health and mood
Key Takeaways:Coffee might support both gut health and mood, with recent study participants showing lower stress, depression, and more beneficial gut bacteria.OSF gastroenterologist Omar Khokhar says effects vary by individual and coffee type, and the study only shows a correlation, not proof of cause.Moderation and personal tolerance matter mos...
NFL analyst suggests nightmare scenario for 49ers in free agency
The San Francisco 49ers haven't re-signed their biggest remaining free agent, and one NFL analyst thinks he could be headed to a 49ers rival.
They Say Compassion Drains You. Science Disagrees
Research suggests it’s not compassion that wears doctors down but a different emotion — a distinction that may help them recharge more effectively.
Sony clarifies recent PlayStation DRM update
PlayStation fans and gaming preservations have been alarmed since late last week that a new 30-day timer attached attached to newly-purchased digital games for PlayStation 4 and 5 might render those games unplayable if the system they’re on is offline for longer than a month. But a rep from Sony told Game File today that new system will require only a single online check before it functions as a perpetual license for the digitally purchased game. That is consistent with a newer theory that emerged by gamers testing the 30-day timer over the last two days. “Players can continue to access and play their purchased games as usual,” a rep for PlayStation told me over email. “A one-time online check is required after purchase to confirm the game’s license, after which no further check-ins are needed.” The rep’s explanation squares with the current understanding among players about what’s happening. A multi-day mystery A post last Friday by YouTuber Lance MacDonald spread awareness over the 30-day timer. Quickly, players began stress-testing the system, removing a battery within their PlayStations and checking what would happen if their systems were offline past the timer window. They noticed that setting a PS4 or PS5 to be the “primary” console—a common Sony-authorized method to retain rights to a digital game—wasn’t overriding the 30-day limit. On Tuesday came the breakthrough: A gamer called Andshrew on the Resetera forums posted the results of some tasting. They found that digital games purchased on PS4/PS5 after some time in mid-April would get a 30-day timer that could then be removed and replaced with a perpetual license that would allow the game to be played offline. The transition to the perpetual license occurred some number of days after the digital game was purchased and the system was connected to the internet. They believed that a PlayStation’s online check-in would trigger the license change no sooner than 15 days after the user had purchased the game. This synced with the theory that Sony’s new system is related to the 14-day window that PlayStation users have to request a refund for digitally purchased games. The new timer/check-in system could be a way to defeat some exploit in that refund system, some users theorized. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe In a follow-up, I asked the Sony rep if the 15-day timeline is accurate or if the perpetual license can be activated sooner after purchase. If they share more, I’ll update this post. Sony has not said why they’ve introduced the timer and whether it is designed to stop people from exploiting the refund system. But their explanation suggests that this new DRM method should not result in long-term loss of access to digitally purchased games, just because a PlayStation is offline for a month or Sony’s servers are down. Xbox flashback For many some gamers, the initial reporting of the 30-day timer conjured memories of Microsoft’s disastrous May 2013 announcement of the Xbox One, which was going to require an internet-connected check-in once a day, lest your games become unplayable.1 After widespread backlash, Microsoft abandoned that plan, ahead of the Xbox One’s launch. 1 Fun fact: That 24-hour check-in detail was my scoop from an interview I had that day with then-Xbox exec Phil Harrison. I was EiC of Kotaku at the time and rushing from one Xbox One preview appointment on Microsoft’s campus to another. I phoned the news in to reporter Jason Schreier, who wrote it up for the site.
The US coastline is heading for an ocean disaster even faster than we thought, study suggests | BBC Science Focus Magazine
New research suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could weaken by half this century with wide ranging consequences for weather, food and sea levels across the world
My first 32er mountain bike test ride suggests the hype is outrunning the tech. But not for long.
My first 32er test ride felt great. Still, the big-wheel bikes aren't perfect and won't be for everyone.
Dementia risk rises with common food type millions eat every day, study suggests
A new study from Australia links ultraprocessed food consumption to lower attention scores and higher dementia risk, even among those who follow otherwise healthy diets.
What polls show about Republicans, Democrats and violence
Polling suggests recent events have made the perception of violence and its political motivations more of a wash — even if more people tend to fault Republicans’ rhetoric.
Forget the caveman myth: Neanderthal brains challenge what we thought we knew
We appear to have more in common with our Neanderthal cousins than outward appearances would suggest. New research published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests that ...
NASA Curiosity rover finds mysterious life linked molecules on mars
Curiosity has detected a surprising variety of organic molecules on Mars, including compounds tied to the chemistry of life. Some of these molecules may be billions of years old, preserved in ancient clay-rich rocks that once held water. One standout find resembles building blocks of DNA, raising exciting questions about Mars’ past. Although not proof of life, the discovery suggests the Red Planet may have once been far more biologically promising than we thought.
Playoff chances already dwindling, hard decisions nearing for Phillies
The Phillies are already in a dangerous hole, and history suggests their path back could force major decisions soon.
The universe may end trillions of years sooner than we thought
Recent surveys hint that the rate of cosmic expansion changes dramatically over time; if that's true, then the universe could end much sooner than we thought, new research suggests.
Scientists think they finally know why Neanderthals vanished
A new study suggests Neanderthals didn’t go extinct simply because of climate change or competition with Homo sapiens. Instead, the key difference may have been social connectivity—Homo sapiens formed stronger, more flexible networks that helped them survive environmental shocks. Neanderthals had connections too, but they were more fragile and regionally limited. This made them less resilient as conditions became increasingly unpredictable.
Neanderthals' brains weren't to blame for their demise, new study suggests
Researchers examining the brains of living people found that they differed more substantially than Neanderthals' brains differed from modern humans', calling into question the reason our evolutionary cousins mysteriously disappeared.
Scientists just captured a mysterious quantum “dance” inside superconductors
In a breakthrough experiment, scientists directly imaged how particles pair up in a system that mimics superconductors. Instead of behaving independently, the pairs moved in a synchronized, dance-like pattern—something never predicted before. This suggests a major gap in the classic theory of superconductivity.
Magical Abilities Removed From Upcoming Assassin's Creed Hexe, Leak Suggests
Fresh leaks point to a major change for the upcoming witchcraft-themed Assassin's Creed Hexe, and expectation of an Assassin's Creed 1 remake.
‘The Forsytes’ Boss Reveals Season 2 Time Jump After Shocking Finale
Revelation suggests the possibility of a major digression from the show’s source material, John Galsworthy novels, and its previous TV adaptations.
Pesticide exposure linked to 150% higher cancer risk in major study
A major new study finds that living in pesticide-heavy environments could raise cancer risk by up to 150%, even when the chemicals are considered “safe” on their own. The research suggests these mixtures may silently damage cells years before cancer appears.
This one change to your exercise routine could add years to your life
Mixing up your workouts might be the real secret to a longer life. Long-term research tracking over 100,000 people for more than three decades suggests that doing a variety of physical activities—rather than just more of the same—can significantly lower the risk of death. Interestingly, the benefits don’t keep rising endlessly; they seem to level off after a certain point, hinting at a “sweet spot” of activity.
Scientists Discover a Surprising Reason Intermittent Fasting Extends Life
How the body efficiently shifts metabolism after fasting may be key to improving health, UTSW-led research suggests.
Fish oil may be hurting your brain, new study finds
Fish oil has long been praised as brain-boosting, but new research suggests the story may be more complicated. Scientists found that in people with repeated mild head injuries, a key omega-3 fatty acid in fish oil—EPA—may actually interfere with the brain’s ability to repair itself. Instead of helping recovery, it appears to weaken blood vessel stability, disrupt healing signals, and even contribute to harmful protein buildup linked to cognitive decline.
Foldable iPhone Ultra confidential docs leak: 9.2mm design, Android-style selfie cameras, color options
Leaked schematics from a case manufacturer detail the possible dimensions of the upcoming iPhone Fold. The leak suggests a folded thickness of 9.23mm - notably thinner than previous 11mm rumors. The drawings outline a 167.59mm x 120.59mm footprint, a significant 13mm camera plateau, and Touch ID on the side.
Gravitational waves may have created dark matter in the early universe
In the chaotic first moments after the Big Bang, ripples in spacetime may have done more than just echo through the cosmos—they could have helped create dark matter itself. New research suggests that faint, ancient gravitational waves might have transformed into particles that eventually became the invisible substance shaping galaxies today.
Adrian Wojnarowski's anti-Trump politics reportedly causing friction with St. Bonaventure community
A report from The Athletic suggests Adrian Wojnarowski's partisan political views may be hurting his role as St. Bonaventure's basketball GM.
Scientists just uncovered a 3 million-year climate mystery in Antarctic ice
Ancient Antarctic ice is revealing a surprising new chapter in Earth’s climate story, stretching back 3 million years. By analyzing tiny pockets of trapped air and rare gases, scientists have discovered that while the planet cooled significantly—especially in the oceans—levels of key greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane changed only modestly. This unexpected mismatch suggests other powerful forces, such as shifting ice sheets, ocean circulation, and Earth’s reflectivity, played major roles in driving long-term climate change.
“Us versus them”: How political propaganda polarises beliefs without providing any news
Political polarisation is often attributed to misinformation, echo chambers, or biased news. But new experimental evidence suggests that merely making a social conflict salient – without providing any information at all – is enough to sharply increase disagreement on both factual and normative questions. This column discusses how politicians and media can ‘artificially’ amplify societal tensions by strategically choosing which conflicts to highlight, and why this mechanism is harder to counter than standard misinformation.
‘Kraken-like’ giant octopuses 100m years ago crunched bones of prey
Study of fossilised beaks shows patterns of wear and suggests some ancient species were up to 19 metres long
Latest iPhone 18 Pro Max Dummies Suggest Thicker Camera Plateau, More Protruding Lenses
Apple is expected to bring several camera enhancements to the iPhone 18 Pro models this year, but there have been no fixed rumors suggesting these upgrades will require measurable, visible changes to the device's rear camera plateau. And yet a new series of dummies suggests exactly that. iPhone 17 Pro dummy (left) vs.
Scientists trace latest interstellar comet's home to a cold, isolated corner of the Milky Way
A new study suggests that the comet that rambled past us from another star last year likely originated in a cold, isolated corner of the galaxy that had yet to gel into its own solar system.
Scientists trace latest interstellar comet’s home to a cold, isolated corner of the Milky Way
A new study suggests that the comet that rambled past us from another star last year likely originated in a cold, isolated corner of the galaxy that had yet to gel into its own solar system.
Rectal cancer rates rising rapidly among people in their 30s and 40s: 'A medical crisis'
By 2035, rectal cancer death rates could exceed deaths from colon cancer, new research suggests.
Are malls dying? University Park Mall shoppers, business owners weigh in
Some shoppers say they think malls are dying, but the general manager for University Park mall suggests it is very much alive.
Europe’s Most Active Volcano Just Got Stranger – Here’s Why Scientists Are Rethinking It
New research suggests Mount Etna forms from deep mantle magma pockets, possibly classifying it as a rare “petit-spot” volcano rather than a typical tectonic or hotspot volcano.
More naps, higher risk? Research links daytime sleep to health warnings in aging adults
Excessive daytime napping may signal health decline in older adults and is linked to higher mortality risk, a Mass General Brigham study suggests.
When the CEO Becomes the Brand
Research suggests that Elon Musk’s political stance appears to have reshaped how different groups perceive Tesla. Overall sales trends hint at trouble. The company’s growth stalled in 2024, and deliveries fell 8.5% in 2025. But those headline numbers hide what is happening beneath the surface. When the data is broken down by political orientation and by changes in views of Musk, a more complicated pattern emerges. Among right-leaning respondents and those whose opinion of Musk has improved, Tesla’s brand appeal is significantly higher and willingness to pay exceeds that for many competing brands, including Ford, Chevrolet, and Rivian. Among left-leaning consumers and those whose view of Musk has worsened, the opposite is true: Preference and willingness to pay for Tesla drop sharply. The outcome is not a uniform decline but a polarization of demand. Some consumers appear to feel alienated, while others feel more aligned with the brand. This raises an important strategic question of whether companies can influence purchasing decisions across these divided segments by strengthening the underlying value proposition.
AI Gives 'Problematic' Health Advice Around Half The Time, Study Suggests
The most dangerous advice may sound most convincing.
AI Gives 'Problematic' Health Advice Around Half The Time, Study Suggests
The most dangerous advice may sound most convincing.
Healthy diets spark lung cancer risk in non-smokers as pesticides loom
Younger non-smokers who ate diets rich in fruits, vegetables and whole grains showed a surprising link to lung cancer, early research suggests.
Your Smartwatch May Be Getting 6 Key Health Metrics Wrong
Not as smart as the name suggests.
What Small Businesses Should Know About New Tariff Refunds
New CBP guidance suggests some businesses may be eligible for tariff refunds under IEEPA, offering a potential boost to cash flow.
Having more kids associated with reduced risk of stroke and brain damage, research co-led by UT Health San Antonio shows - UT Health San Antonio
Number of live births could be an important predictive factor Contact: Steven Lee, (210) 450-3823, lees22@uthscsa.edu SAN ANTONIO, April 20, 2026 – While some say having lots of kids can make you lose your faculties, a new study suggests otherwise. Research co-led by UT Health San Antonio, the academic health center of The University of […]
Naked mole rats wage bloody wars of succession to choose a new queen — but one colony did something scientists have never seen before
When their queen dies, naked mole rat females usually wage bloody battles of succession. But peace may be possible, a new study suggests
A Look At AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has recently drawn fresh attention as the share price moved to US$1.86, with a one-month return of 89.7% and a three-month return of 15.5%. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. While the recent 1 month share price return of 89.7% suggests strong short term momentum, the 1 year total shareholder return decline of 33.1% and 5 year total shareholder return decline of 96.6% highlight how volatile the ride has been for long term holders. If fast...
Surprising Discovery That AI Performs Subliminal Learning And Does So In Mysterious Ways
Newly published research suggests that AI can subliminally learn. This is exciting but also disconcerting. Evil AI could sneakily turn other AI. An AI Insider scoop.
Scientists Prove There Are Just Six Degrees of Separation in a Social Network
A simple pattern links billions of people: just a few connections apart. New research suggests this may be an unavoidable feature of human networks.
Loneliness may be silently eroding your memory, new research reveals
New research suggests loneliness affects older adults' baseline memory performance but may not directly accelerate cognitive decline over time.
Slay the Spire 2 roadmap suggests we won't get matchmaking but does promise "whimsy"
It's been a little more than a month since Mega Crit's hugely anticipated sequel Slay the Spire 2 released in early acc…
“Yeah… it’s not so good,” as Microsoft confirms major Rewards changes in May and what it means for anyone who relies on daily point earning
Microsoft Rewards is getting an update with new tiers, monthly bonuses, and expanded rollout, but early feedback suggests not everyone is convinced by the changes.
USC study suggests link between healthy diet and increased lung cancer risk
Your favorite snacks could be quietly wrecking your knees, new research suggests
New research suggests ultraprocessed foods may increase fat in thigh muscles, potentially raising the risk of knee osteoarthritis regardless of weight.
Scientists Say Black Holes Are Breaking Their Own Rules of Physics
A new study suggests that influence from fermionic fields could be causing black holes to defy one of their own core rules.
Science Lesson Plan About Why Falling Cats Always Seem to Land on Their Feet
New research suggests that cats have a highly flexible segment of their spines, allowing them to correct their orientation midair.
FOX Sports Analyst suggests Chiefs draft day trade with Lions
A FOX Sports Analyst suggests a Kansas City Chiefs draft day trade with the Detroit Lions for tight end Sam LaPorta | @EdEastonJr
How low should blood pressure go? Science has the answer
New research suggests that aiming for a lower blood pressure target may deliver bigger heart health benefits than previously thought. Using large datasets and simulation models, scientists found that keeping systolic blood pressure below 120 mm Hg could reduce the risk of heart attack, stroke, and heart failure more than higher targets.
The value of free health insurance: Evidence from Mexico’s Seguro Popular
Expanding free health insurance is central to universal health coverage, but its impact depends on how households value it. This column examines Mexico’s Seguro Popular and shows that households value the programme less than its fiscal cost. This helps explain why its effects on labour markets were modest and suggests that overall welfare gains may be smaller than often assumed, despite the programme’s large expansion in coverage.
A crushed fossil revealed a dinosaur that shouldn’t have existed
A badly mangled dinosaur skull, once forgotten in a drawer, turned out to be a rare and important discovery. Reconstructed by a Virginia Tech student, it revealed a new species of early carnivorous dinosaur with unusual features never seen before. The fossil suggests some dinosaur groups were wiped out during the end-Triassic extinction, not just their rivals. It may represent one of the last survivors of an ancient dinosaur lineage.
Want a Cheat Code for Starting a Business? A New Study of 1,334 Cities Suggests It's Hiding in Plain Sight
I like things that are easy.
Labour claims Reform UK won’t protect women, as poll suggests Farage’s party heading for ‘seismic’ wins in May
Poll projects major political earthquake across Britain with Labour losing Wales and England’s Red Wall
Is a New $75,000+ Canon Cine-Servo Coming? Rumors Point to a 50-1000mm Refresh for NAB 2026
After a quiet lead-up to NAB, an anonymous tip suggests Canon is about to update its CINE-SERVO 50-1000mm. Could we finally see Full-Frame support and a native RF mount for the new version?
iPhone Fold Production Pushed Back, But Fall 2026 Launch Still on Track
Production on the iPhone Fold is behind schedule, but the device is still slated to launch in fall 2026, reports DigiTimes. The site says that production has been pushed back by "roughly one to two months," but Apple has not communicated any launch delays to suppliers. Apple is still planning for a 2026 launch, which suggests a tighter production schedule. Apple planned to begin iPhone Fold mass production in June 2026, but mass production has now slipped to early August.
Analysis shows aggressive Republican redistricting in Florida would put more GOP seats at risk
Will a redraw backfire on the Florida GOP? A study by Alex Alvarado suggests so.
One UI 9 leak suggests Samsung is listening to our software complaints
Leaked One UI 9 changes point to smarter photo edits, a simpler 'About phone' section, and fluid animations.
New data suggests Trump’s assault on democracy may be stalling out
Three new reports give some surprising reasons for optimism.
In the Desert, a ‘Cleaning Station’ for Ants
A unique “choreography” between two ant species suggests a distinctive partnership in which one provides a carwash service to the other.
Report Suggests Potential Detroit Lions Schedule Release Dates
The Detroit Lions 2026 NFL schedule release date is coming in mid-May. Here’s what we know and who the Lions will face.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
Opinion: Science is recognizing the protective effects of religion
A new study suggests that religion and spirituality could be a component in preventing and recovering from addiction
Nearly 100 Colorado businesses have left or scaled back operations since 2019, report finds
A new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation suggests the state’s weakening competitiveness is driving businesses out of state. Companies are blaming factors like increasing regulations and cost of living for why they’re choosing to...
Chisora suggests retirement U-turn for Wilder rematch
Derek Chisora said he would retire after last weekend's fight against Deontay Wilder but is now pushing for a rematch, saying he was "upset" with the scoring.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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