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Nintendo Announces $50 Switch 2 Price Increase as Pokémon Pokopia Crosses 4 Million Sales
Pokémon Pokopia is widely known to have been a successful launch for Nintendo, with the life sim having recently climbed its way to the top of Metacritic's 2026 game rankings with an impressive 89 Metacritic score. Now, recent financial filings indicate that Pokopia has been more than simply a criti...
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation Check After Improved Results And New Venue Openings
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) just released first quarter results, with revenue and sales both higher than a year ago and the net loss narrowing, while new entertainment openings aim to keep its properties front of mind for visitors. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. The latest results and property openings come after a strong 90-day share price return of 35.38% and a 17.91% year to date share price return. However, the 1-year total shareholder return is slightly negative and...
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's shaping up to be a tough period for Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation ( NYSE:LUCK ), which a week ago...
New obesity discovery rewrites decades of fat science
Scientists have uncovered a surprising secret hidden inside fat cells that could reshape how we think about obesity and metabolic disease. A protein called HSL, long believed to simply release stored fat when the body needs energy, turns out to have a second job deep inside the nucleus of fat cells—helping keep those cells healthy and balanced. Even more surprising, people and mice missing this protein don’t become obese as expected; instead, they lose fat tissue in a dangerous condition called lipodystrophy.
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Swings To Q1 Profit Testing Bulls’ Margin Expansion Narrative
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) opened 2026 with Q1 revenue of $4.3 billion and basic EPS of $1.24, while trailing 12 month revenue sat at $17.0 billion against a basic EPS of $2.12 loss, so the latest quarter lands against a still loss making year in aggregate. Over the past year, the company has seen revenue move from $14.3 billion on a trailing 12 month basis in Q1 2025 to $17.0 billion in Q1 2026, with quarterly EPS swinging between a $3.92 loss in Q3 2025 and $1.24 in the most recent...
Is It Time To Reassess Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) After Its Recent Share Price Rebound?
If you are wondering whether Six Flags Entertainment is attractively priced today or a potential value trap in disguise, this article breaks down what the current share price is really offering you. The stock last closed at US$19.69, with returns of 9.3% over the past week, 10.1% over the past month, 27.1% year to date, and a 45.5% decline over the past year as well as 52.2% and 54.1% declines over the last 3 and 5 years. Recent headlines around Six Flags Entertainment have focused on its...
Chief Justice Roberts: Supreme Court not political; decisions are based on law
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts avoided mentioning any specific rulings at a conference this week in Hershey, Pennsylvania, but stressed that the court is “simply not part of the political process.” He said the court’s formal, writ…
What healthcare AI cannot be allowed to become, according to one CIO
If the most powerful technology of the era simply squeezes margin from a system that already prioritizes throughput over healing, that's not innovation, says Dr. Ash Goel – it's automating the dysfunction.
AMC Entertainment (AMC) Q1 Losses Keep Pressure On Bullish Margin Expansion Narratives
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) opened Q1 2026 with revenue of US$1,045.4 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.22, compared with Q1 2025 revenue of US$862.5 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.47 as the stock trades around US$1.64. Over the past year, revenue has ranged between US$862.5 million and US$1,397.9 million per quarter, while quarterly basic EPS losses have moved between roughly US$0.01 and US$0.58, leaving investors focused on how much of that top line is dropping through to the...
Is Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) Still Attractively Priced After Strong Multi‑Year Share Gains?
If you are wondering whether Live Nation Entertainment is priced for perfection or still has room to run, the recent share performance gives you a useful starting point. The stock last closed at US$167.82, with returns of 9.6% over the past week, 4.8% over the past month, 15.5% year to date, 25.1% over 1 year, 113.6% over 3 years and 115.4% over 5 years. Recent headlines have focused on Live Nation Entertainment's position in global live events and ticketing, including regulatory attention...
Mattel Recasts Growth With Mobile Games Brick Shop And Entertainment Push
Mattel has completed the acquisition of mobile game studio Mattel163, taking full control of its digital gaming business. The company is rolling out the new Mattel Brick Shop, a construction toy concept positioned to compete more directly with LEGO. Mattel is also deepening its entertainment efforts, tying its brands more closely to film and content projects. NasdaqGS:MAT is trading at $14.72, with the stock down 26.5% year to date and 30.3% over five years. In this context, the decision to...
A Look At AMC Entertainment (AMC) Valuation After Q1 2026 Earnings Update
Q1 2026 earnings put AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) back in focus AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) reported first quarter 2026 results with revenue of US$1,045.4 million and a net loss of US$117.1 million, drawing fresh attention to the stock. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. The Q1 2026 update landed after a strong 30 day share price return of 41.96%, although the year to date share price return of a 1.24% decline and 1 year total shareholder return of a 40.67%...
AI lets chemists design molecules by simply describing them
Creating complex molecules usually requires years of experience and countless decisions, but a new AI system is changing that. Synthegy lets chemists guide synthesis and reaction planning using simple language, while powerful algorithms generate and evaluate possible solutions. The AI doesn’t just compute—it reasons, scoring pathways and explaining which ones make the most sense.
A Look At Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Valuation As Analyst Concerns And Dividend Move Draw Focus
Analyst Concerns and Dividend Move Put Tencent Music in Focus Recent analyst downgrades and slightly reduced fair value estimates have pushed Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) into the spotlight, as competition and earnings visibility stay front of mind for investors. At the same time, the company’s ordinary annual cash dividend of US$0.12 per share for 2025, with an ex dividend date of 1 April 2026, offers a degree of income continuity that some shareholders may welcome. See our latest...
The obvious solution to the global oil shock finally makes sense
If oil is in such short supply, why can’t we simply drill more of it?
Did DOJ Settlement and Strong Ticket Demand Just Shift Live Nation Entertainment's (LYV) Investment Narrative?
Live Nation Entertainment recently outlined continued strong global concert demand, pricing power and a favorable Department of Justice settlement that avoided a Ticketmaster divestiture, while also confirming past management presentations at MoffettNathanson and J.P. Morgan investor conferences, both of which were webcast to investors. These developments, alongside Vanguard holding over 12.04 million shares and modest insider selling, spotlight how regulatory outcomes and investor...
A Look At Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness
Recent share performance and context Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has drawn attention after a challenging stretch for the share price, with negative moves over the past week, month, past 3 months, and year to date. At a last close of US$9.10 and a market value of about US$14.3b, the China-focused music streaming and social entertainment business combines QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music and WeSing, alongside advertising and merchandise revenue. See our latest analysis for Tencent...
Is Tencent Music (TME) Offering Value After Recent Share Price Weakness?
If you are wondering whether Tencent Music Entertainment Group at around US$9.10 is attractively priced or not, it helps to separate the story from the numbers. The stock's journey has been uneven, with a 2.6% decline over the last 7 days, a 0.8% decline over the last 30 days, a 49.0% decline year to date, a 34.8% decline over the last year, a 30.4% gain over 3 years and a 40.7% decline over 5 years. Recent coverage has focused on how Tencent Music Entertainment Group fits into the broader...
How The Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Narrative Is Shifting With Mixed Analyst Signals
Tencent Music Entertainment Group’s fair value estimate has been trimmed slightly to US$17.59 from US$17.98, a small reset that keeps the overall framework intact while adjusting assumptions. That move sits against a mixed wave of analyst calls, where several downgrades and price target cuts are balanced by an upgrade to Buy with a US$17.40 target. This reflects competing views around competition, earnings visibility and the recent share pullback. Read on to see what is driving this split...
A Look At WEBTOON Entertainment (WBTN) Valuation As Genies Partnership Expands 3D Avatar Opportunities
WEBTOON Entertainment (WBTN) recently announced a partnership with AI avatar company Genies to bring its English platform characters into interactive 3D chat experiences, digital collectibles, and creator tailored avatar tools. See our latest analysis for WEBTOON Entertainment. The Genies partnership arrives after a sharp pickup in momentum, with WEBTOON Entertainment’s 30-day share price return of 35.79% and 7-day return of 18.96% lifting the latest price to $13.24. The 1-year total...
Universal Health Services Adds Talkspace To Expand Virtual Behavioral Health Reach
Universal Health Services (NYSE:UHS) is acquiring virtual therapy provider Talkspace to build a virtual behavioral health platform. The transaction is aimed at supporting outpatient growth and extending UHS's reach beyond its traditional inpatient and facility based network. The company expects the deal to be accretive within 12 months and sees a multi year opportunity tied to digital care and operational efficiencies. For investors following NYSE:UHS, this move adds a digital layer to a...
How The WEBTOON Entertainment (WBTN) Narrative Is Shifting With Softer Growth And New Partnerships
WEBTOON Entertainment’s latest analyst update keeps the model fair value steady at US$12.21 per share, while published price targets across the Street are now clustering in a wider US$10 to US$15 range. That spread reflects a split between analysts who still see long term growth drivers and others who are more cautious given softer recent revenue trends, weaker guidance, and questions around monetization, competition, and partnerships. In the sections ahead, you will see how to interpret...
Is It Time To Reconsider PENN Entertainment (PENN) After Long Term Share Price Weakness?
If you are wondering whether PENN Entertainment's current share price still reflects good value, the recent performance and valuation checks give you a useful starting point. The stock last closed at US$17.27, with returns of 0.2% over 7 days, 15.1% over 30 days, 16.3% year to date, 8.1% over 1 year, and longer term declines of 34.7% over 3 years and 80.1% over 5 years that many investors will be weighing up. Recent coverage has focused on PENN Entertainment's position in the wider U.S...
Is Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) A Potential Opportunity After Prolonged Share Price Weakness?
Wondering whether Flutter Entertainment at around US$106 per share still lines up with its underlying worth, or if the recent price leaves a margin of safety on the table. The stock has been choppy, with a 4.9% decline over the last week, a 3.3% gain over the past month, and year to date returns of a 51.4% decline, alongside a 1-year return of a 57.3% decline and 3-year and 5-year returns of 45.9% and 48.2% declines respectively. Recent coverage has focused on Flutter Entertainment's...
A Look At Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum
Why Sphere Entertainment is on investors’ radar Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) has drawn fresh attention after recent share price moves, with the stock up 1.6% over the past week and showing stronger momentum over the past month and past three months. See our latest analysis for Sphere Entertainment. The recent share price gain to US$144.73 comes on top of a 51.53% 3 month share price return and a very large 1 year total shareholder return, signalling strong and sustained momentum rather than a...
Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NasdaqGS:MLCO) Margin Rebound Tests Bullish Earnings Narratives
Melco Resorts & Entertainment (NasdaqGS:MLCO) heads into its Q1 2026 update with recent quarterly numbers that put revenue at about US$1.3b in Q4 2025 and basic EPS at US$0.16. This caps off a year where trailing twelve month EPS reached US$0.46 on revenue of roughly US$5.2b. Over the past few quarters, the company has seen revenue range between US$1.2b and US$1.3b per quarter, while basic EPS moved from US$0.08 in Q1 2025 to US$0.19 in Q3 before landing at US$0.16 in Q4. This result comes...
Health expert shares workouts, nutrition tips to feel more beach ready
Beach season has a way of sneaking up fast — but getting stronger, leaner, or simply feeling more confident doesn’t have to start in a gym.Health expert Heather
Instagram cracks down on content aggregators
The update targets content aggregators that don't post original content and instead simply re-upload others' posts.
Is Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Offering A Chance After Mixed Long Term Returns?
If you are wondering whether Caesars Entertainment at around US$27.38 is a bargain or a value trap, the starting point is understanding what the current price actually reflects. The stock has returned 7.4% over the past month and 16.2% year to date, although the 1 year return is 1.2% and the 3 and 5 year returns are negative at 37.8% and 73.4% respectively, which can change how investors think about both upside potential and risk. Recent headlines have focused on Caesars Entertainment's...
Celebrating Financial Literacy Month: Cleveland’s Chase Community Manager Shares Tips for Strengthening Financial Health
We all have financial needs and goals, whether it’s dreaming of buying a new home, starting a business, or simply feeling more secure about your finances. No matter where you are on your financial journey, it’s never too early – or too late – to get started.
A Look At Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility
Context for Flutter Entertainment stock after recent moves Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has been on many investors’ radars after recent share price volatility, with the stock showing a gain over the past month but a decline across the past 3 months. At a last close of US$109.09 and a market value near US$19.3b, the company sits at an interesting point for readers comparing shorter term performance with longer term total returns, which currently reflect multi year pressure. See our latest...
Is It Time To Revisit Caesars Entertainment (CZR) After Recent Share Price Rebound?
Wondering whether Caesars Entertainment at around US$28.03 is a bargain or a value trap? This article walks you through what the current price could imply. The stock has posted returns of 1.4% over the last 7 days, 8.4% over the last 30 days and 19.0% year to date, while the 1 year return sits at a slight 0.1% decline and the 3 and 5 year returns are declines of 39.7% and 71.1% respectively. Recent news coverage has focused on Caesars Entertainment as one of the larger names in US gaming and...
Scientists think they finally know why Neanderthals vanished
A new study suggests Neanderthals didn’t go extinct simply because of climate change or competition with Homo sapiens. Instead, the key difference may have been social connectivity—Homo sapiens formed stronger, more flexible networks that helped them survive environmental shocks. Neanderthals had connections too, but they were more fragile and regionally limited. This made them less resilient as conditions became increasingly unpredictable.
Editorial | Sports ticket pricing is absurd
The upcoming FIFA World Cup and 2028 Summer Olympics have shown that it may be more worth it to simply plop down on your couch to watch the games.
Rethinking Utility Incentives and Business Models in the Age of Distributed Energy
Many utilities have been slow to embrace distributed energy resources (DERs) and, in some cases, have reshaped rate structures and compensation mechanisms to limit their growth. This is not simply resistance to change. It is a rational response to incentive structures that favor building infrastructure over technology advancement and energy optimization and efficiency.
How The Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Investment Story Is Shifting With Mixed Analyst Sentiment
The fair value price target for Golden Entertainment is now set at US$30.0, effectively unchanged from the prior US$30 level and signaling a steady headline anchor for the story. This static target comes as bullish and bearish analysts weigh steadier execution potential against more cautious expectations and a downgrade in research commentary. As you read on, you will see how to track these shifting views and what they may mean for following the evolving narrative around the stock. Analyst...
Findings on healthy life expectancy in UK shed light on its deteriorating health
Metric gives fuller picture than life expectancy, which is simply how long people live, says Health Foundation
Netflix Weighs Profit Discipline Against Growth In Sports Gaming Experiences
Netflix (NasdaqGS:NFLX) is sharpening its capital allocation approach, emphasizing profitability and margin discipline. The company is widening its focus beyond on demand streaming to advertising, live sports, gaming and experiential venues. Management recently chose not to pursue a potential merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, signaling a preference for self funded growth. Netflix shifted from a pure subscription streaming pioneer into a broader entertainment platform that includes ad...
A Look At Accel Entertainment (ACEL) Valuation After Recent Share Price Momentum
Recent performance and business snapshot Accel Entertainment (ACEL) has attracted fresh attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing positive returns over the past week, month and past 3 months, prompting investors to reassess its fundamentals. The company operates distributed gaming terminals, redemption devices with ATM functionality and other amusement equipment in non casino venues across the United States, including restaurants, bars, truck stops and convenience...
Is It Time To Consider Buying Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited (ASX:NEC)?
Nine Entertainment Co. Holdings Limited ( ASX:NEC ), is not the largest company out there, but it saw a double-digit...
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Quantum Accelerator Coaster And Park Upgrades Debut
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) is back in focus after Six Flags New England previewed its new Quantum Accelerator coaster, along with refreshed dining and guest experience upgrades across the park. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. At a share price of $18.28, Six Flags Entertainment has a 30 day share price return of 10.12% and an 18.01% share price return year to date. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 49.36% and 3 year total shareholder return of 56.66%...
Dave & Buster's Entertainment Chief Information Officer Steven Klohn Sells 34% Of Holding
We'd be surprised if Dave & Buster's Entertainment, Inc. ( NASDAQ:PLAY ) shareholders haven't noticed that the Chief...
Should Flutter’s Shift to U.S.-Style Governance and Blank-Check Preferred Shares Require Action From Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Investors?
At its 2026 Annual General Meeting on May 29, held in the past relative to today, Flutter Entertainment plc approved amendments to its Memorandum and Articles of Association to align governance with common U.S. public company practices, including plurality voting in contested director elections, flexible board size, and the ability to issue blank-check preferred shares. An important implication is Flutter’s move to formalize its status as a U.S. domestic issuer under the Securities Exchange...
PENN Entertainment Weighs Alberta Online Launch Against 2026 Profit Goals
PENN Entertainment is preparing to launch regulated iCasino and online sports betting in Alberta, Canada in July. The company is reshaping its Interactive segment with a focus on achieving profitability from Q4 2026 onward. PENN has an active development pipeline, including new casino and hotel projects planned through 2026. PENN Entertainment (NasdaqGS:PENN) is shifting attention from recent earnings headlines to a new phase of online expansion in Alberta, where regulated iCasino and...
Why The Narrative Around Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Is Shifting With New Street Signals
Recent Street research around Madison Square Garden Entertainment has produced several price target moves, including individual increases of between US$2 and US$6, while the consolidated target shift sits at about US$2. Bullish initiations and fresh coverage from major firms such as JPMorgan highlight growing attention, even as the removal from Goldman Sachs' US Conviction List and more cautious targets show that opinions are still split. In the sections ahead, you will see how these...
Poll: Three out of four Florida voters say they would vote for homestead property tax relief
Republicans and Democrats are on board, while NPA voters simply don't know enough about the plan.
PENN Entertainment (PENN) Near Breakeven Q1 Loss Tests Bullish Profitability Narratives
PENN Entertainment (PENN) opened Q1 2026 with revenue of US$1.8b and a basic EPS loss of US$0.02, alongside net income excluding extraordinary items of a US$2.3m loss. The company’s quarterly revenue moved from US$1.7b in Q1 2025 to US$1.8b in Q1 2026, while EPS shifted from a profit of US$0.73 to a small loss in the latest quarter, creating a mixed picture of topline scale against continued pressure on profitability and margins. See our full analysis for PENN Entertainment. With the headline...
Has Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Fallen Too Far After A 52% One-Year Share Price Drop?
If you are wondering whether Flutter Entertainment's share price reflects its true worth today, it helps to start with how the stock has actually been performing. The shares last closed at US$111.57, with a 1.4% gain over the past week and 7.9% over the past month, set against a 48.9% decline year to date and a 52.1% decline over the last year. Recent coverage has focused on the sharp pullback in the share price and what it may signal about changing sentiment toward the business. This...
Travelers unit launches business insurance app in ChatGPT
Simply Business, a subsidiary of The Travelers Cos., Thursday launched its business insurance application in ChatGPT in the U.S.
How Investors Are Reacting To Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Upgraded Earnings Momentum And Analyst Sentiment
Sphere Entertainment recently attracted attention after Zacks assigned it a Momentum Style Score of A and a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), reflecting improved analyst sentiment and positive earnings estimate revisions in the period leading up to today. This shift in sentiment highlights how changing expectations for Sphere’s earnings power and momentum profile can influence how investors view its longer-term prospects. Next, we’ll examine how this stronger earnings momentum, highlighted by upgraded...
Analysts Are Optimistic We'll See A Profit From Dolphin Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLPN)
With the business potentially at an important milestone, we thought we'd take a closer look at Dolphin Entertainment...
Linux 7.1 Removes Drivers For Long Obsolete Input Hardware: Bye Bus Mouse Support
Beyond Linux looking to remove old drivers due to the surge of AI/LLM bug reports, the Linux 7.1 kernel is also removing some old hardware drivers simply on the basis of long obsolete hardware
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) Pricing Reflect Recent Slide And DCF Upside Potential
If you are wondering whether Tencent Music Entertainment Group's current share price reflects its underlying value, or if the market is mispricing it, this breakdown will help you frame that question with numbers rather than guesswork. The stock last closed at US$9.25, with returns of an 8.9% decline over 7 days, a 6.2% decline over 30 days, a 48.2% decline year to date, a 28.6% decline over 1 year, a 32.8% gain over 3 years, and a 45.6% decline over 5 years, which gives you a wide range of...
Letters to the Editor: Transactional leadership has its place in business, but not in war
'Let me suggest that, instead, a transformational leadership style that builds on knowledge, ideas, motivation and experience, among other attributes, to form results that will last beyond Band-Aid transactions that simply cover scabs,' writes an L.A. Times reader.
Simply Business taps ChatGPT as new front door for SME insurance
Small business owners can now get guide prices for key covers in ChatGPT using just three data points
A Look At PENN Entertainment (PENN) Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility
Assessing PENN Entertainment after recent performance PENN Entertainment (PENN) has drawn fresh attention after a mixed stretch in its share price, with a 1 day decline of about 4.5% contrasting with modest gains over the past month and past 3 months. See our latest analysis for PENN Entertainment. At a share price of $14.77, PENN Entertainment has seen pressure in the very short term, with a 1 day share price return of about a 4.5% decline and a 7 day share price return of a 7.8% decline...
Simply Business Launches Insurance App for Small Businesses in ChatGPT in the U.S.
/PRNewswire/ -- Simply Business, a digital insurance marketplace for small businesses, today announced the launch of its business insurance app in ChatGPT in...
WELL Health Patient Volumes Surge As Primary Care Margins Improve
WELL Health Technologies (TSX:WELL) reported record patient volumes in Q1-2026, supported by higher activity in its Primary Care segment. Operational changes and an expanded affiliate network were key drivers of Primary Care growth and improved clinic margins. The company continues to add clinics to its network, extending its reach across its core markets. For investors watching TSX:WELL, the latest Q1-2026 update focuses on patient volumes and clinic performance rather than headline...
A Look At Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation As Upgraded Earnings Outlook Lifts Momentum
Momentum shift puts Sphere Entertainment in focus Recent favorable revisions to earnings estimates and a strong momentum score have pushed Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) onto more investors’ radars, as the stock’s performance has differed from both the broader market and its media peers. See our latest analysis for Sphere Entertainment. Despite a 2.8% decline in the latest session and a 4.4% 7 day share price pullback, Sphere Entertainment’s 30 day share price return of 18.8% and very large 1...
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Valuation Check As Digital Growth Offsets Mixed Long Term Returns
Recent performance snapshot and business mix Caesars Entertainment (CZR) has seen mixed share performance, with a small 1 day pullback following gains of about 4% over the past week and roughly 3% over the past month. Over the past 3 months, the stock shows a return of about 17%, while the 1 year total return is close to 3%. Longer horizons look weaker, with 3 year and 5 year total returns of about 35% and 73% declines respectively. The company reports annual revenue of about US$11.5b and a...
Assessing Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Valuation After New Impossible Foods Partnership
Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) is in focus after announcing a multiyear partnership with Impossible Foods. The deal introduces branded plant-based offerings, a dedicated Impossible Grille concession and expanded in-arena promotion across Knicks and Rangers home events. See our latest analysis for Madison Square Garden Entertainment. The stock is trading at $61.42 after a 9.37% 1 month share price return and 13.03% year to date share price return. The 1 year total shareholder...
How Al Gore Politicized Climate Science
An Inconvenient Truth turns 20 next month. In the 2006 documentary, former vice president Al Gore argued that human-driven climate change was an urgent, civilization-threatening crisis. The film became a cultural phenomenon, winning two Academy Awards and making climate change one of the defining political issues of our time. I am sure that there will be many retrospectives seeking to relitigate the scientific claims in the film. But the far more important anniversary story is not about the accuracy of any of Gore’s individual claims but rather about what the film helped to unleash in the scientific community: bringing partisan politics into the institutions of science. Gore did not simply make a film about climate change: He implored the scientific community to join him in overt climate advocacy. The fuel that Gore added to the fire of pathological politicization of the climate science community is the most important legacy of An Inconvenient Truth. Almost three years after the film’s release, Gore took the stage at the 2009 annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)—the country’s largest and most prominent scientific organization—and delivered something much closer to a revival sermon than a scientific lecture. Gore told the assembled scientists that they could no longer “in good conscience accept this division between the work you do and the civilization in which you live.” His directive was clear:
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
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A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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