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ACC takes on DOAC use with new scientific statement
Direct oral anticoagulants continue to be underutilized and inappropriately dosed. The American College of Cardiology hopes a new scientific statement can help address those issues and provide clinicians with an updated look at this important topic.
Should you be taking creatine? Here's what the science says
The sport supplement is popular among health influencers and athletes, who say creatine can help build stronger muscles and sharper brains—but is it legit?
Hastings Public Library brings Science Across America to Hastings
HASTINGS - Hastings Public Library is inviting the community to discover the excitement of scientific explorat...
Envisioning Federal Scientific Integrity as a Tool to Protect Democracy and Fight Corruption
How can we preserve scientific integrity policies in the next administration when they've proven to be subject to political whims?
Science review panel finds CIRES delivers exceptional value to NOAA and the nation
Reviewers concluded that CIRES consistently exceeds its goals and significantly enhances NOAA's scientific and operational capabilities.
Star Trek Murder Mystery Drove The Science Advisor Crazy
A holodeck mystery forced a rare scientific rewrite, inspiring clever new sci-fi tech and solving an impossible storytelling problem.
The SpudCell: Could some 'blobs' in a dish spark the 'Sputnik' moment for synthetic life?
A quivering blob in a dish might not sound like a scientific breakthrough.
Scientists Say We May Have Been Wrong About the Origin of Life
Ancient evidence suggests a new twist in how we all got here.
KUOW’s new podcast Pocket Science digs into the groundbreaking research happening right here in the Pacific Northwest
Today KUOW launches Pocket Science, a podcast that takes you up close to the scientific research and discovery happening all around the region and introduces you to the scientists in the thick of it.
Pickles glow when you plug them in. Science explains why
A scientist, a jar of pickles and a power strip walk into a room. The punchline involves physics, glowing condiments and a scientific party trick.
From birdsong to galaxies: Unleashing the potential of citizen science
Everyone could contribute dramatically more to scientific knowledge if given better recognition, administrative support and funding stability, new research has found. An international collaboration of ...
IFT: Proposed US federal grant rules threaten nutrition science funding & competitiveness
The US Office of Management and Budget (OMB) recently proposed rules to rewrite the Uniform Guidance — the rulebook for all federal grants. Institute of Food Technologists (IFT) chief science and technology officer tells Nutrition Insight that these rules are set to undermine the nation’s scientific research for food and nutrition and hinder global competitiveness.
Church services dull pain, and a new diabetes drug: science stories of the week
From new types of spider hunting techniques to the earliest-known plague victims, here are the most interesting recent scientific developments
First experiment to thicken Arctic ice with seawater shows promise — but there’s a big catch
Researchers recently performed the first scientific test of sea ice thickening in the field, but there remains a big question mark over how scalable this method is.
For the 2014 film Interstellar, director Christopher Nolan hired Caltech physicist Kip Thorne as his science consultant — and the visual simulations Thorne helped design for the film's black hole were so mathematically accurate that they generated two peer-reviewed scientific papers and became the model for how astrophysicists visualize black holes today
In late 2012, when the American film director Christopher Nolan formally took over the production of a Warner Brothers science-fiction project that had been drifting through Hollywood development since approximately 2005 (originally intended for Steven Spielberg, based on a screenplay concept the film producer Lynda Obst had developed jointly with the Caltech theoretical physicist Kip […]
The Selective Frontier: The State of the American Experiment After 250 Years
Since its inception, America has revolutionized scientific research and technological advancements. Yet, in its shift away from federal research grants and “basic research,” science may find itself in an increasingly privatized and profit-driven setting.
China Issues Guide for Registering International Science Groups
China issued guidance for establishing international scientific organizations in the country, setting out registration requirements for nonprofit groups focused on scientific cooperation, exchange and governance.
Platner will prioritize public health, which Collins helped to dismantle
A new television ad (paid for by “America First International Assistance”) portrays Sen. Susan Collins as protecting Maine from the Ebola virus by funding millions in scientific research. While the ad may have historical truth concerning her record (the footage appears to be several years old), Sen. Collins is a member of the Republican Senate […]
Patient enrolment begins in a scientific trial to identify the first effective treatments for Bundibugyo virus disease
In a major international effort to evaluate potential treatments for Ebola disease due to Bundibugyo virus (BVD), the PARTNERS clinical trial has opened enrolment today for patients in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Croatia criticised for ‘unambitious’ changes to 2022 science law
Croatia’s science ministry has been accused of a lack of ambition, and even incompetence, over proposed changes to the country’s 2022 science law. Critics say an opportunity has been missed to fix wider shortcomings in the research and universities system.“This law, like all the previous ones, will not significantly change the current state of science in Croatia,” Vlatko Silobrčić, a member of the Croatian Academy of Sciences, told Science Business. “A small shift here and there will not have a significant impact.”The 2022 law introduced multi-year block grant financing of research, based on results, and changes intended to boost employment and career progression for researchers and lecturers. But implementation of the law has been uneven. “It became apparent that certain of its provisions were subject to different interpretations by higher education institutions and scientific institutes,” the science ministry said in its proposal for change. “This caused legal uncertainty in the system, administrative difficulties in implementation and, in certain cases, unequal treatment of teachers, scientists and students.”Most of the proposed amendments deal with technicalities in hiring and promoting staff, such as extending the committee deadlines from 60 to 90 days, or allowing applicants to cite all of their achievements and not only those since their last appointment.Both the ministry and Croatian media highlighted changes that would raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 years and allow part-time students 15 year rather than 10 years to finish their studies.The change to retirement age has been criticised for reinforcing a weakness in the system. According to Matko Marušić, professor emeritus at the University of Split, this will “allow unproductive teachers to advance and work longer, while hindering and discouraging productive ones.”A longtime campaigner for excellence-based meritocracy, he sees little hope in the new legislation. “I am not optimistic that things will improve,” he told Science Business. “As recent changes to the law in Croatia show, the legal framework is becoming increasingly hypocritical and harmful.”For Marušić, who analyses Croatia's university system in a recently published book, the situation is “unfavourable and constantly deteriorating” due to the criteria used for academic advancement.“The key criterion for advancement should be scientific productivity,” he said. “In Croatia [. . .] scientific criteria are increasingly lowered, and ineffective and absurd criteria such as waiting times for promotion and age limits for remaining in a job are promoted.” He would also like to see better criteria for the quality of teaching at universities. “In practice, teaching is not monitored or evaluated,” he said, estimating that up to a third of teaching simply does not take place. “Under the guise of university autonomy and bad laws, universities and faculties are allowed to earn additional money by increasing enrolment quotas that have nothing to do with the needs of the labour market.” Lack of ambitionDora Kršul, a reporter at Telegram.hr who covers science policy in Croatia, finds the rationale for changes “bizarre.” “The ministry responsible for supervising the uniform application of the law is changing the law because it is being implemented unevenly,” she said. “This primarily speaks to the power relationship in the sphere of science and higher education in Croatia, that is, the question arises as to who actually manages this system.”Rather than raising quality, she continued, the changes appear to be designed to help vocational and applied universities who have not been complying with the law.The Independent Union of Research and Higher Education Employees of Croatia said that the changes were “unambitious” and represent a missed opportunity for more important changes. “We think some of the changes are even negative,” it said in its statement on June 25. One of these is introduction of an “assistant” job title that allows people to be hired only for the duration of a project. Related articles: Elections to top science bodies test Croatia’s gender equality in researchSlovakia revises R&D approach to increase focus on competitivenessLatvia pilots citizen engagement in research grant evaluationsThe union’s president, Tvrtko Smital, who was part of the 15-member working group tasked with drafting the changes, told the local media there was a “worrying lack of ambition” in the process, and “lack of competence” in terms of research experience and understanding the problems in the system.“There is no clear will to deal with the problems,” said Smital, an assistant professor of marine and environmental sciences at the Ruđer Bošković Institute in Zagreb. “It’s a combination of unambitiousness and incompetence,” he went on, expressing his “deep frustration” with the situation. “There is no strategy, no clear thinking, and money is not being spent optimally.”Croatia’s science ministry has not responded to requests for comment.
The White House goes all in on aliens with new UAP Science Advisory Council
This new group, which is led by Harvard professor Avi Loeb, aims to advise the Trump administration and the U.S. intelligence community, as well as to publish its findings in peer-reviewed journals
Ancient cave paintings can harbor human DNA for millennia, scientists find
The breakthrough could reveal previously hidden ancient human activity inside caves, acting as ‘genetic archives’
Building connections across molecular life science
ASBMB President Ed Eisenstein reflects on how the society shaped his scientific career and outlines his vision for expanding connections across academia, industry and government to accelerate discovery, translation and community-building.
Climate scientist who “proved” humanity is warming Earth says government report got it wrong
A pioneering climate scientist is challenging a U.S. government report that cited his research while reaching what he says is the exact opposite conclusion. Benjamin Santer and his colleagues say decades of satellite data clearly reveal the atmospheric “fingerprint” of human-caused climate change. Their new peer-reviewed analysis argues the report contains major scientific errors and should not be relied upon in climate policy decisions.
Anthropic Goes Deeper Into Drug Development With Claude Science
The company launched an app designed as an AI workbench that brings together the vast array of tools used in scientific research and also said it is getting into drug development.
Global ocean temperatures are entering “uncharted territory,” climate scientists say
Sea surface temperatures in late June reached nearly 70 degrees Fahrenheit on average, shattering records
UN panel warns AI is outpacing scientific understanding, government policy
AI is already being used to generate misinformation and other harmful content and could be exploited for fraud, cyberattacks and biological threats.
Opinion: Proposed federal grant rules are attempt to ‘muzzle’ science | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
A proposed overhaul in how federal grants are awarded is aimed at shutting down scientific research on disfavored topics such as health disparities, climate change, gender identity, and vaccines, according to Harvard Chan School’s Nancy Krieger.
‘The science is here’: UN chief welcomes first global AI assessment
Fresh scientific evidence and options for harnessing artificial intelligence (AI) were unveiled Wednesday following the launch of the first global, independent scientific assessment of opportunities, risks and impacts by a pioneering UN expert panel.
Protecting Science. Advancing HIV Prevention. Preparing for What's Next
Global health is being reshaped by rapid geopolitical shifts, scientific breakthroughs and the growing role of artificial intelligence — creating both new opportunities and new challenges. Translating scientific breakthroughs into impact requires protecting research, advancing equitable access and ensuring communities are at the center. Explore AVAC’s latest resources to help navigate and shape what comes […]
Scientists just unveiled “cyborg” cockroaches that can breathe underwater for hours
The bionic bugs could be called up for aquatic search and rescue missions, according to the researchers
Orlando City SC Signs Strategic Partnership with Football Science Institute
Lions and FSI to collaborate on integrating scientific knowledge with professional practice, research and development
Putting the Science in Science-Fiction: Midwestern Hosts Booth at Phoenix Fan Fusion
Students, faculty, and staff taught anatomy of predators and prey, debunked creatures from cinema, and ignited passion for scientific inquiry
UNESCO convenes scientific community for global conference on science
UNESCO invites you to the Global Conference of the International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development taking place from 15 to 17 July 2026 at UNESCO Headquarters in Paris, with ministers
Anthropic Launches Claude Science AI Workbench for Scientific Research
June 30, 2026 — AI has the potential to dramatically accelerate the pace of scientific discovery and the development of healthcare interventions. Since launching efforts in the life sciences last fall, […]
Anthropic debuts Claude Science, an AI product for bioscience
On Tuesday, Anthropic announced Claude Science, a new product that company leaders describe as an AI workbench for scientific research.
Anthropic unveils 'Claude Science' AI platform for scientific research
Anthropic on Tuesday launched Claude Science, an AI platform designed to help scientists streamline research, analyze data and manage complex computing workflows.
Argonne Open House 2026: Science comes to life for visitors
Argonne’s June 27 Open House welcomed more than 8,000 visitors for hands-on science, tours of major research facilities and opportunities to meet researchers across four themes: AI, energy, scientific tools and the universe.
A milestone for Zooniverse
The University of Minnesota-connected citizen science platform logs its one billionth contribution to scientific knowledge.
Floodwaters, oil and health fears in South Sudan
Flooding has submerged oil wells in Unity State since 2021, fueling contamination fears among war-displaced communities, though scientific evidence remains limited.
Klick Health Acquires Oxford PharmaGenesis, Bringing Together Unsurpassed Scientific-to-Commercial Capabilities for Life Sciences Clients
Focused on taking life sciences companies into the future, Klick Health today announced its acquisition of Oxford PharmaGenesis, the market-leading HealthSci...
What Botox, rat poison and venoms can teach students about science
New University of Nevada, Reno course builds scientific thinking skills for future science-related fields
Chatbots Are Replacing Therapists With Little Scientific Evidence Behind Them
Over 100 chatbots are marketed as mental-health-focused, but experts warn they shouldn’t take the place of therapy.
How to spot an AI-generated face, according to science
Training people to pay attention to the right visual cues nearly doubled how accurately they could spot AI-generated faces
Scientists Slam Trump Rule Change
Dr. Esen Sefik moved from Istanbul to New Haven 20 years ago because she believed the U.S. was the best place to do scientific research. Now, her advisees are wondering whether to stay in their home countries instead. Sefik described the U.S.'s changing research climate on Monday during a press conference about a proposed rule by the Trump administration that would require a political appointee to approve all discretionary federal grants.
First ever dinosaur found in Antarctica described for science
The first dinosaur fossil found on the Antarctic continent has been described scientifically. The fossil, a vertebra, was found on a British Antarctic Survey (BAS) expedition in 1985 but has only recently ...
Science and Technology Must Deliver for the Public
The United States has never lacked for scientific ambition. What we need now is a renewed civic commitment to ensuring that talent is harnessed for the benefit of all people. Science can work for everyone. Join us as we build a broader coalition committed to that vision.
Careers That Shaped Biology
Every great scientific career begins with a question no one has been able to answer — and a scientist stubborn enough to keep asking it. This series looks back at the careers of some of HHMI’s most distinguished scientists — people whose contributions have changed what we know about life itself, and whose stories reflect the best of what science, and scientists, can be.
Growing scientific evidence links e-cigarette chemicals to heart health risks
DALLAS, June 29, 2026 — Is vaping bad for my health? As people who use e-cigarettes and their loved ones pose questions like this, growing scientific evidence shows that the answer is yes. Research studies show that several chemicals found in...
NEA Nuclear Science Committee advances strategic priorities for the future of nuclear research
The NEA Nuclear Science Committee met on 8-10 June 2026 to advance international collaboration, strengthen scientific expertise, and shape the future of nuclear science through innovation, data and AI.
AI scientist company Edison Scientific tapped by team behind Metsera to create new biotechs
Edison Scientific and investment firm Population Health Partners are teaming up to leverage AI agents in drug discovery and development.
Can the so-called nanobubbler save the Reflecting Pool?
The $1.7 million “ozone nanobubbler” being used in an effort to make the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool water crystal clear has a unique ability to shoot 500 million microscopic bubbles into every teaspoon of water. The injected oxygen is supposed to oxidize — or, unscientifically speaking, smash through — algae, bacteria and other chemicals.
Opinion | Trump’s Science Cuts Betray America’s Past Since Lewis and Clark
America has funded scientific research since 1804 — and remembers that first project as a national glory. Cutting similar funding today is a betrayal.
Alex McBratney: The boy from Whithorn among the scientific elite
Alex McBratney has come a long way from southern Scotland to become a fellow of the Royal Society.
Alex McBratney: The boy from Whithorn among the scientific elite
Alex McBratney has come a long way from southern Scotland to become a fellow of the Royal Society.
Magnetic sperm and the ugliest shark: science stories of the week
From a lupus breakthrough to why humans drift left when they walk, here are the most interesting scientific developments of the week
Magnetic sperm and the ugliest shark: science stories of the week
From a lupus breakthrough to why humans naturally move anticlockwise, here are the most interesting scientific developments of the week
Bernstein Says Life Science Sector is Improving, Resumes Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Coverage
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) is included among Billionaire Steven Cohen’s Top 11 Dividend Stock Picks. On June 26, Bernstein resumed coverage of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) with a Market Perform rating. It also set a $520 price target after the analyst returned from maternity leave. In a research note, the firm said “Many […]
Los Alamos Faith and Science Forum launches 2026 Summer Series - Lutheran Alliance for Faith, Science and Technology
The Los Alamos Faith and Science Forum's 2026 summer season is on, offering weekly presentations on humanity’s most enduring scientific and spiritual questions.
Are ghosts real? What top scientists secretly found will shock you - Futura-Sciences
The Enigma of Cryptozoology Cryptozoology is the study of animals whose existence hasn’t been scientifically proven. Think about it: creatures like the Yeti, the Loch Ness Monster, or the giant squid. Sometimes these beings seem straight out of outlandish legends—a touch of myth, a dash of curiosity, and a sprinkle...
Testing gives science-based data for Fairmont lakes
FAIRMONT— A partnership between the city of Fairmont and Minnesota State University-Mankato will result in comprehensive scientific data on the Fairmont Chain of Lakes. The $25,000 contract started on April 1 and will go through Dec. 31 of this year. Fairmont’s Water Resources Coordinator, Hannah Neusch, acknowledged that while the water treatment plant in Fairmont […]
UNESCO places science and knowledge at the heart of recovery efforts
At the Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC) 2026, held in Gdańsk, Poland, on 25–26 June, UNESCO announced a new package of support of over EUR 2,5 million to help rebuild Ukraine’s scientific and
Opinion | Don't apply politics to scientific research
Under recently proposed rules, federal grants could be terminated midstream for reasons having little to do with science or merit.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Misericordia University Students Earn Top Honors at Pennsylvania Academy of Science's 101st Annual Meeting
Misericordia University students earned multiple prestigious awards while showcasing undergraduate research at the 101st Annual Meeting of the Pennsylvania Academy of Science (PAS), held this year on the Misericordia University campus—the first time the statewide scientific organization has hosted its annual conference at the university.
MIT in the media: Exploring how curiosity-driven science is an essential ingredient in America’s success
“Scientific American” showcases the history and future of America’s scientific engine, highlighting promising young scientists and icons at MIT and beyond.
How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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