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iPhone 18 Pro Max Component Costs Could Rise Nearly $300
The bill of materials for the iPhone 18 Pro Max is expected to rise by nearly $300 compared to the iPhone 17 Pro Max, according to a new Counterpoint Research analysis. The estimate covers the 1TB storage model. NAND flash costs for the device are said to exceed $250 on their own, a figure that would cover roughly half of the iPhone 17 Pro Max's entire estimated component cost.
EPA promised a Make America Healthy Again agenda. It has yet to materialize, frustrating activists
Trump’s second-term EPA has vigorously pursued a deregulatory agenda.
CalFresh and Maternal and Infant Health in the Bay Area During the COVID Pandemic
This descriptive analysis shares insights about mothers and their infants in the Bay Area who were enrolled in CalFresh during the pandemic.
EPA promised a Make America Healthy Again agenda. It has yet to materialize, frustrating activists
After Make America Healthy Again activists drew up a petition to get him fired, Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin pledged to release a formal agenda of MAHA priorities his agency would pursue.
Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk
Find insight on Rio Tinto, YYY, Air Liquide and more in the latest Market Talks covering basic materials.
Mint to separate critical minerals work into e-scrap, battery businesses
Mint Innovations still plans a 2027 launch for its first U.S. critical minerals recovery facility in Texas, which will focus on copper and other materials from e-scrap. Battery recycling will now be a separate business called Linca.
Nobel-Winning U.S. Chemist Omar Yaghi Will Move to China to Lead A.I. Institute
Omar Yaghi of the University of California, Berkeley, will head an initiative to apply artificial intelligence to the discovery of new materials.
Cradle Indy to work with hospital systems on maternal and infant health
The nonprofit will collaborate with five health networks to launch the Maternal & Infant Health Scorecard.
Quantum computing wielded to create extremely rare material critical to nuclear fusion
Nuclear fusion inches closer after scientists combine supercomputing, AI and quantum computing to blueprint a way to create more tritium.
iPhone 18 Pro Max component costs could jump by nearly $300
A new estimate of the iPhone 18 Pro Max’s bill of materials suggests that Apple’s next flagship could cost significantly more to build than the current model.
Culturally tailored maternity care lifts healthy birth rates for First Nations families
The Baggarrook Yurrongi or "Women's Journey" model ensures women having a First Nations baby are cared for by a known midwife throughout pregnancy, birth and the early postnatal period.
Revitalizing a rural health center in Togo
Reyneir M., who served as a Community Health Volunteer in Togo, shares a community-led project to acquire equipment and amenities for a maternity ward at a local health center in Togo.
UF Health doctor arrested for transmitting child sexual abuse material
Arrest happened Wednesday.
Arrest report details child porn allegations against UF Health doctor
An investigation that began with a cyber tip led authorities to arrest UF Health doctor Chintan Shah on felony child sexual abuse material charges.
Everything Coming in the 2026 Apple TV 4K
The Apple TV 4K hasn't been updated since 2022, and it's due for a refresh. An update is planned for 2026, but Apple is likely going to wait to launch it after Siri AI launches in iOS 27. Design Apple TV design updates don't happen often, and that's not changing. The next Apple TV is going to have the same squircle shape as the current model, and it'll continue to be made from a black plastic material.
Partnership leads to healthier moms and babies, building stronger families
In six rural counties across Indiana, Indiana University Health nurses works with families to navigate maternal and infant health
Why Netflix’s ‘Maternal Instinct’ left out Taylor Parker’s mental health diagnosis
Director Jessica Dimmock explained her reasoning to Netflix's Tudum.
Materials science and engineering students gain hands-on experience as part of a national manufacturing competition
Five engineering students put their design and manufacturing skills to the test in the Steel Founders' Society of America's Cast in Steel competition. The first season of the organization's YouTube series premieres on July 9.
Argonne Team’s ChemGraph Unlocks AI for Chemistry and Materials Science
LEMONT, Ill., July 07, 2026--The framework uses large language models to help nonexperts access computational chemistry expertise
Ongoing Maternity Care Innovations in California: California Rural Health Transformation (CalRHT) Program
This blog post is part of an NHeLP series about current initiatives to improve maternity care in California. The first blog post is on the California Department of Health Care Services Birthing Care Pathway. The second blog post is on California’s Transforming Maternal Health Model. This, the third and final blog post, is on the California Rural Health Transformation Program. […]
Ongoing Maternity Care Innovations in California: Birthing Care Pathway
This blog post is part of an NHeLP series about current initiatives to improve maternity care in California. This blog post, the first, is on the California Department of Health Care Services Birthing Care Pathway. The second blog post is on California’s Transforming Maternal Health Model. The third and final blog post is on the California Rural Health Transformation Program. […]
Weibo leaker says iPhone 18 Pro thickness will be ‘surprising’
Days after materials from Apple supplier Tata surfaced online, prominent Weibo leaker “Fixed Focus Digital” doubled down on his earlier claim that the iPhone 18 Pro will be thicker than the iPhone 17 Pro.
iPhone 18 Pro Could Be Noticeably Thicker Than iPhone 17 Pro
The iPhone 18 Pro's aluminum frame and camera housing are both set to grow thicker than the iPhone 17 Pro's, according to new posts from the leaker known as "Fixed Focus Digital". In a post on Weibo today, the leaker said that aluminum alloy mid-frames are "going to be used in straight-edge phones for a long time to come," referring to Apple's continued use of the material introduced with the iPhone 17 Pro rather than a return to titanium.
Make the Business Case for Your Sustainability Initiative
Sustainability proposals often stall not because they lack merit, but because they are framed in a language that does not match how senior leaders allocate capital. While CSOs tend to emphasize impact, materiality, and disclosure, CFOs and CEOs need to understand cash flow, risk, and return. External reporting frameworks are useful for accountability, but they are poorly suited to internal investment decisions, which require project-level comparisons rather than aggregated enterprise metrics. Sustainability investments should therefore be evaluated like any other investment: by showing how they reduce current costs, avoid future costs, generate new revenue, or protect existing revenue. Strong cases begin with a clear business story that links the proposed action to a specific business impact and cash-flow outcome, then quantify what can credibly be quantified while treating harder-to-measure benefits as either upside or an explicit strategic bet.
Incredible new material makes heat programmable
A newly developed material can control and "program" heat, allowing it to direct thermal radiation, switch modes, and remember its settings without continuous power. The innovation could lead to smarter infrared sensors, better energy technologies, and memory devices that use light and heat instead of electrical charges.
Argonne team’s ChemGraph unlocks AI for chemistry and materials science
Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory have developed a framework, ChemGraph, that uses artificial intelligence to help nonexperts access computational chemistry expertise.
125-million-year-old 'pregnant' fossil displays alien like reproduction method which has intrigued scientists
Moms are capable of magic that is more than just maternal. Nature has imbued its most special being with surprisingly strange ways of reproduction and care for their babies.
Anthropic Releases Paper About Claude's Mental 'Workspace.' Don't Read It Uncritically
Anthropic's paper and supplementary materials hint at consciousness, perhaps a bit hastily.
http://democrats-energycommerce.house.gov/media/press-releases/pallone-wyden-release-report-maternal-health-one-year-after-trumps-big-ugly
House Energy and Commerce Committee Ranking Member Frank Pallone, Jr. (D-NJ) and Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) released a report on the state of maternal health care in the United States one year after President Trump signed his Big Ugly Bill into law.
Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk
Find insight on Vault, gold and more in the latest Market Talks covering basic materials.
Sudan’s maternity wards reopen, bringing hope amid post-war struggles
Sudan’s maternity wards reopen, bringing hope and safe deliveries to mothers navigating post-war economic hardships.
Health secretary seeks advice over maternity inquiry staff who refused to give evidence
James Murray says he felt "numb" after hearing from families affected by the scandal.
Science & Medicine: Training health care workers to save lives in Texas maternity care deserts
In the nearly half of Texas counties considered maternity care deserts, few health care workers are trained to handle a pregnancy emergency like maternal cardiac arrest. A simulation-based training program from an expert at UT San Antonio's Kate Marmion School of Public Health aims to change that, and reduce preventable deaths in the process.
Science & Medicine: Training health care workers to save lives in Texas maternity care deserts
In the nearly half of Texas counties considered maternity care deserts, few health care workers are trained to handle a pregnancy emergency like maternal cardiac arrest. A simulation-based training program from an expert at UT San Antonio's Kate Marmion School of Public Health aims to change that, and reduce preventable deaths in the process.
Letter: Oklahoma must face its maternal health crisis
Oklahoma generally scores below the majority of states in terms of maternal health metrics, highlighting gaps in access to care and resources.
Nobel-winning scientist Omar Yaghi joins China’s Tsinghua University from the US
Yaghi hopes to lead team using AI to create materials to tackle global challenges such as carbon neutrality and water shortages.
Jon-Paul Maria named interim head of Materials Science and Engineering
Jon-Paul Maria, Dorothy Pate Enright Professor of Materials Science and Engineering at Penn State, has been named interim head of the Department of Materials Science and Engineering, effective July 1.
Rep. Young Kim Introduces Healthy Mothers, Healthy Babies Act to Strengthen U.S. Leadership, Support American Jobs, and Help Families Globally
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, U.S. Representative Young Kim (CA-40) introduced the Healthy Mothers, Healthy Babies Act to deploy proven, American-made interventions that reduce maternal and child mortality around the globe while supporting U.S. national security and foreign policy interests. Each year, nearly 260,000 women die from preventable pregnancy-related complications. Evidence-based solutions like Multiple Micronutrient Supplement (MMS) prenatal vitamins,
ESPN hates the Rams’ offseason
Sean McVay’s bullet board material for Rams players starts with a “C+”
A New Leader for USC Mork Family Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science - USC Viterbi
Professor Noah Malmstadt, newly appointed chair of the USC Mork Family Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, discusses the energy and manufacturing challenges that connect the disciplines, and why the future of the department is built on firm foundations.
Preparing your business for new shipping, packaging requirements
Any business using packaging and shipping material in Maine should familiarize itself with new compliance obligations and fees on the horizon, our guest contributor recommends.
Scientists reveal what really happens when water is trapped in tiny spaces
A decades-old puzzle about water has finally been unraveled. Researchers found that water trapped in tiny nanoscale spaces is not inherently more reactive. Instead, the intense pressures created inside these microscopic gaps explain most of the effect, while the surrounding material can further enhance water's chemistry if it interacts with the reaction products.
Expanding Maternal Care in New Mexico Through Data and Mental Health Support
No two pregnancies or childbirths are the same, but every New Mexico family deserves the same access to safe, high-quality maternal-fetal care. Two University of New Mexico School of Medicine projects aim to improve how providers care for pregnant...
July 2026: Sustainable Business Wins Roundup
Each quarter, Plastic Pollution Coalition is reporting exciting news from companies that are leading the way for a transition away from fossil fuels and synthetic materials to a healthier plastic-free future.
3M joins Cadillac Formula 1® Team as Official Material Science Partner to accelerate racing performance
/PRNewswire/ -- The Cadillac Formula 1® Team and 3M today announced a multi-year global partnership to push the limits of innovation in the world's toughest...
3M joins Cadillac Formula 1® Team as Official Material Science Partner to accelerate racing performance
Multi-year global partnership will focus on lightweight materials, manufacturing and testing to aid on-track performance ST. PAUL, Minn. and INDIANAPOLIS, June 30, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The...
Meet a PhD student selected for a national Science, Mathematics, and Research for Transformation Scholarship | CWRU Newsroom
Jenna Jaklich is nearly three years away from completing her PhD program in materials science and engineering at Case Western Reserve University, but...
England maternity commissioner role would be ‘fundamentally dangerous’, says campaigner
Founder of Maternity Safety Alliance says recommendation in Amos report will not solve wider cultural problems
England to get powerful maternity commissioner after ‘shocking’ failings
Health secretary announces move after Amos review finds childbirth and neonatal care in need of ‘urgent reform’
[8-K] ALLIANCE ENTERTAINMENT HOLDING CORP Reports Material Event
Alliance Entertainment Holding Corporation reports that majority stockholders delivered a written consent on June 24, 2026 approving a major charter change.
Honeywell completes spin-off into three companies. Just one remains in Charlotte.
The three businesses separately focus on advanced materials, automation and aerospace.
Cleveland Clinic Tackles Hunger, Housing and Maternal Health
In 2025, our teams continued to address critical social drivers of health, expand access to care and resources, and build stronger, healthier communities.
A $1000 PlayStation 6 No Longer Sounds Crazy, As Sony Doesn’t Intend To Sell Hardware At Significant Losses
The PlayStation 6 is set to launch at one of the most challenging times for consumer tech, if not the most challenging. With the rising prices of components, RAM and SSDs above all, manufacturers are having an extremely hard time keeping costs down, and with a bill of materials that is now close to $1000, there's a very high chance the system will cost way more than most anticipated. Adding fuel to the fires of speculation is Sony itself, as the company heavily suggested in a recent investor Q&A session that it won't heavily subsidize the system. "We regard hardware as the base […]
Google Cloud to Offer Specialist AI Models for Science Research
Alphabet Inc.’s Google will start offering specialist artificial intelligence models from software company SandboxAQ through its cloud service, expanding enterprise and research access to technology designed to accelerate drug discovery, materials science and semiconductor manufacturing.
The PlayStation 6 Reportedly Already Costs $960 in Materials to Manufacture
The PlayStation 6 reportedly costs $960 to build in materials, suggesting next-gen consoles' prices could be much higher than anticipated.
Bernstein Says Life Science Sector is Improving, Resumes Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Coverage
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) is included among Billionaire Steven Cohen’s Top 11 Dividend Stock Picks. On June 26, Bernstein resumed coverage of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) with a Market Perform rating. It also set a $520 price target after the analyst returned from maternity leave. In a research note, the firm said “Many […]
Hawaii is turning ocean plastic and fishing nets into roads
Hawaii researchers are giving old fishing nets and recycled plastic a second life by mixing them into asphalt roads. Early tests found these roads didn't release more plastic particles than standard pavement, with tire wear overwhelming any plastic signal from the recycled material. If future studies confirm the roads are durable, the technology could help tackle both marine pollution and overflowing landfills.
Usha Vance pokes fun at ‘political significance’ of maternity dress
Second lady Usha Vance poked fun at a New York Times article examining the public image of pregnant women in President Trump’s orbit, joking that she did not realize her maternity dress carried so …
People complete workforce pilot program designed to address maternal health inequalities
Trump threatens 100% tax on European imports if countries impose tax on digital services
“Please let this statement serve to represent that any Country that imposes such a Tax will immediately be met with a 100% TARIFF on any and all Goods sent to the United States of America,” Trump wrote in a post on social media.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Discussing progress in nuclear fuel and materials science
The NEA held the sixth annual week of collaborative meetings of the Working Party on Materials Science Issues in Nuclear Fuels and Structural Materials (WPFM) from 18-22 May 2026 at the NEA offices in Boulogne-Billancourt, France.
Asthma, maternal health, climate disasters: How Detroit’s health director is tackling city’s health disparities
Detroit health director discusses tackling childhood asthma, maternal health, climate disasters through Health in All Policies approach.
Scientists develop predictive roadmap to boost performance in next-gen spintronics
Chiral 2D metal halide perovskites (MHPs) are among the most promising materials for future technologies that exploit the spin of electrons in spin-based optoelectronics, or spintronics, but getting them ...
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
Usha Vance mocks NYT article over 'political significance' of pregnancy outfits
Second lady Usha Vance mocks a New York Times article scrutinizing the 'political significance' of her maternity outfits.
How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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