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Notre Dame Recruiting Roundup: Irish Stay Hot On The Trail
The Irish bolster their 2027 class by landing two massive offensive tackles, including a crucial flip from UCLA, while aggressively expanding their 2028 board across Florida and California.
US southern states rush to redraw electoral maps to dilute Black voting power
Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee and more are pushing to eliminate Democratic districts after supreme court ruling
Ted Cruz and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trade jabs over billionaires
The Texas Republican and New York Democrat are leading members of their respective parties, with each viewed as a potential 2028 presidential contender.
Vance jokes him and Rubio are on ‘The Apprentice’
The vice president downplayed President Donald Trump’s comments about who should lead the GOP presidential ticket in 2028.
Kemp calls special session to redraw 2028 maps, overhaul voting process
The June special session comes on the heels of a U.S. Supreme Court decision gutting racial gerrymandering protections in the Voting Rights Act.
WNMU School of Business Earns Flawless Global Quality Review - Western New Mexico University
On March 2, the Accreditation Council for Business Schools and Programs (ACBSP) accepted the Western New Mexico University 2026 Quality Assurance Report without notes or conditions. This rare distinction confirms that the business curriculum meets global standards for excellence. With this filing, the university stays on track for its next reaffirmation cycle in 2028. The… Continue reading WNMU School of Business Earns Flawless Global Quality Review
Major declaration data shows English, Div. I up, computer science down
Students in the Class of 2028 declared their majors and concentrations on April 29, solidifying the academic paths they will pursue during their remaining time at the College. Registrar’s office data shared with the Record shows a sharp rise in Division I declarations, an all-time high in the number of English majors, and a continued decline in computer science majors.
Americans weigh in on their top concerns, but is Washington taking action?
Americans see money in politics, health care affordability, and inflation as the top problems facing the nation, according to a new Pew Research Center report.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says Democrats shouldn’t trust Marjorie Taylor Greene
The position puts her at odds with some on the left, such as Rep. Ro Khanna, another potential 2028 contender, who said he wants to find “common ground” with people like Greene.
AOC keeps 2028 options open at Institute of Politics event
U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) declined to rule out a run for president or the U.S. Senate in 2028, telling a packed audience at the University of Chicago last Friday
Buckeyes and Bama still on for 2027 and 2028
We know that your life is busy, but that doesn’t mean you want to miss any news about your favorite team. So, we are rounding up all of the most important news, analysis, and commentary from LGHL and the rest of the Buckeye beat. Hype Week From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant […]
Chicago Teachers Union wants $8.5 million dues hike to fund politics
“Has your brand become toxic?” This was a pointed question from WGN Political Editor Tahman Bradley, posed to Chicago Teachers Union President Stacy Davis Gates in a recent interview. Her immediate response: “I don’t understand the question.” When pressed, Gates added, “The Chicago Teachers Union is not a political party, it is a labor union.” But internal union documents show CTU leadership is trying to skim $8.5 million more from teacher paychecks explicitly for politics, while trying to silence union members critical of Gates’ leadership. Under the proposed dues hike, Chicago teachers would see up to $800 more per year flow from their paychecks to union coffers. The union already takes in more than $40 million a year, mostly from dues. And it spends less than 18 cents of every dollar on teacher representation. The No. 1 reason for the proposed dues hike? Politics. “We must win a majority of the first 21 person fully elected school board in November,” reads the first point in CTU’s member FAQ document.1 This directly contradicts CTU’s promise to members about how leadership uses dues money. The official CTU handbook tells members that the union does not use dues money for politics, so if they are interested in funding political activity, they should consider voluntary donations to CTU’s political action committee. “Our dues are not used for political purposes,” according to the handbook. “So our PAC relies on extra contributions from our members to support progressive candidates and to impact elected officials at the city, county and state levels.” This kind of double-speak is one reason members are concerned about another constitutional change slipped into the dues hike vote, which will take place on May 20-21: an attempt to stop members from holding the union accountable. A proposed amendment to the union constitution tries to place limits on when members may bring a lawsuit against the union for violating members’ rights.2 This provision is clearly a response to members’ lawsuit against union leadership regarding Gates’ years-long refusal to publish audited financial statements. The judge in that case has repeatedly denied the union’s attempts to dismiss it. Teachers opposed to these changes have been circulating this flier, urging members to vote no. What will CTU members get in return for millions of dollars in additional dues? If the 2024 school board elections are any indication—not much. CTU leadership’s record on school board races may not inspire confidence among members. A Chicago Policy Center analysis of a dozen affiliated PACs found CTU spent nearly $2.9 million on school board races in 2024. Of that spending, more than $2.1 million (75%) went to losing candidates. And while CTU-backed candidates lost six of the nine competitive seats overall, they fared worse in their biggest-spending races, losing five of six contests in which the union and its affiliates put up more than $250,000 for their candidate. The Chicago school board elections take place Nov. 3.3 Is another $8.5 million enough to clean up a toxic reputation? Not likely. Update on federal tax credit scholarship: Last week, Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said she plans to opt into the federal tax credit scholarship program. If Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker follows suit, Illinois could unlock $1 billion in donor money statewide for both public- and private-school students. If Illinois does not opt in, that money will flow to other states. The Last Ward reported in February on how Illinois Democrats could unlock at least $100 million in new resources for Chicago public-school students by opting in. Update on the investigation into how Chicagoans learned about a meeting to hike their property taxes: The Last Ward reported in January on an absurd, taxpayer-funded investigation into how local media learned of a planned Chicago school board meeting to hike the district’s property tax levy. That investigation is now complete. Lawyers interviewed two dozen witnesses, and found nothing. Update on Illinois’ muni debt crisis: My colleague Joe Tabor last week published a must-read piece in Crain’s Chicago Business about how Illinois recently rejected south suburban Harvey’s request to be designated a “distressed city.” The saga shows why the state must implement a better structure to assist insolvent local governments, including allowing for the option to pursue debt relief via Chapter 9 bankruptcy. The Last Ward reported in October on how Harvey is tipping the first domino in Illinois’ municipal debt crisis. Mincing Rascals: I joined the Mincing Rascals podcast to discuss the SAFE-T Act, the millionaires tax, and more. My “green light” recommendation: Force Majeure (2014). 1 Notably, the No. 2 reason cited is “resources to fund a state-wide millionaires tax campaign in order to fully fund the state’s school funding formula.” The constitutional amendment necessary to implement a progressive income tax in Illinois recently died in the Illinois House, meaning this question would not appear on the ballot until 2028 at the earliest. 2 There is seemingly no single-subject rule for CTU constitutional amendments. So members only get one vote on the full package. One cannot vote “yes” on the dues hike and “no” on the restriction of members’ rights, for example. 3 Illinois law grants far too much power over local government to unelected officials like Gates. State lawmakers should fix that.
Big donors backed Harris in 2024. For 2028, they're not so sure
Though few in the party want to criticize Harris, few appear ready to endorse her. Conversations about her prospects often come down to one thing: Democrats' anxiety about winning.
Republicans who denied 2020 election results could be governors next year
Electing such candidates for governor would give deniers key oversight of the 2028 presidential election in swing states like Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
AOC says she wants to 'change this country' but won't deny 2028 run
Speculation has swirled around Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a possible contender for president in 2028.
‘My ambition is to change the country,’ AOC says when asked about seeking higher office in 2028
New York’s Democratic representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez brushed off question about run for presidency
Democrats shy away from questions on whether Harris should run for president in 2028
House Democrats are shying away from endorsing Kamala Harris for a 2028 presidential run as names like Newsom, Shapiro and Whitmer are also being discussed.
Top House Democrat vows to go ‘all in’ on 2028 gerrymandering push after Virginia setback
Hakeem Jeffries predicted his party would still win the US House in November despite the GOP’s now-clear advantage in the nationwide redistricting fight.
While many international brands retreat, McDonald’s is supersizing its China business
McDonald's plans to have 10,000 locations in China by the end of 2028, and the country is its second largest market.
RUBÉN LIMARDO IS PLANNING TO COMPETE IN HIS FINAL PAN AMERICAN GAMES IN LIMA 2027 AND TO RETIRE FOR GOOD AFTER LOS ANGELES 2028
The greatest Venezuelan fencer of all time has already decided when he […]
Iran War Looms Over Vance as He Visits Iowa
The vice president, a skeptic of the war, made his first visit of the cycle to the state that will kick off the 2028 nominating process.
As 2028 looms, Jennifer Siebel Newsom faces increased conservative attacks
Conservative media outlets and GOP operatives are churning out an array of content attacking California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s wife.
Gilman named Official Goal of World Lacrosse through 2028
World Lacrosse today announced Gilman Gear as the Official Goal of the International Federation in a multi-year partnership running through 2028. Under the partnership, Gilman Gear lacrosse goals will be exclusively used in competition across World […]
JD Vance makes his Iowa debut as he campaigns for GOP congressman
The state will play a key role if the vice president decides to run for president in 2028, and other potential GOP candidates have visited in recent months.
Senate Republicans look to fund $1 billion in security upgrades for Trump's ballroom
WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Republicans have added $1 billion in White House security upgrades to legislation that would fund immigration enforcement agencies, a proposed boost for President Donald Trump’s ballroom project after a man was charged with trying to assassinate him at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner last week. The GOP bill released late Monday would designate the money for the U.S. Secret Service for “security adjustments and upgrades” related to the ballroom project,
‘We Want to Move on From Losing’: Pritzker on Antisemitism, Trump and 2028
The Illinois governor reflects on his national profile and what comes next.
Vance gets a chance to woo Iowa GOP voters ahead of 2028 in a campaign stop with congressman
Vice President JD Vance will visit Iowa.
Radiological protection and public health experts discuss emerging challenges and future priorities
The 84th meeting of the NEA Committee on Radiological Protection and Public Health (CRPPH) included topical sessions, discussed the 2027-2028 programme of work and marked a chair transition, with the appointment of Antony Bexon (United Kingdom) as the new Committee Chair, succeeding Thierry Schneide...
Trump's Indiana revenge tour sparks an ad avalanche: From the Politics Desk
Plus, the Bernie Sanders lane is open in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary.
Dez Bryant's Son Receives Scholarship Offer from Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys selected wide receiver Dez Bryant out of Oklahoma State with the No. 24 pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. All three of his Pro Bowl nods and one First-Team All-Pro selection also came with the Cowboys. The wide receiver out of Southlake, Texas is an unranked recruit in the 2028 cycle, according to 247Sports.
Democrats Eye 2028 as Battle for Identity Begins
Co-hosts Brandon Rottinghaus and Jeronimo Cortina delve into the latest news in politics
Tennessee football offers 2028 four-star linebacker from Ohio
Tennessee football offers a scholarship to a 2028 four-star linebacker from Ohio.
A’s Drop Series Opener To Guardians 8-5
May has officially begun, and the A’s begin the month with a series-opening loss to the Cleveland Guardians, falling to their AL Central foes in a high-scoring 8-5 contest. The starting pitching wasn’t great, the bullpen allowed three runners to cross home plate, and while the offense provided five runs they left 10 on base […]
What’s changed about the 2028 Democratic presidential field? Kamala Harris
It’s too early to start really handicapping the 2028 presidential race, but some would-be candidates are already making serious moves.
RI House poised to vote to move presidential primary to Super Tuesday
Rhode Island lawmakers are set to vote on a bill to move the state's presidential primary to Super Tuesday in 2028.
Iowa women's basketball offers 2028 California C Eve Fowler
Iowa women's basketball doled out an offer to 2028 California center Eve Fowler.
California dreaming is a political reality for all Americans
California’s political landscape is heating up with the race for governor, the fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, and the potential presidential race in 2028, with Gov. G…
College football post-spring top 25: Texas on top, Texas Tech tumbles amid Brendan Sorsby absence
A shocking gambling scandal forces a manual override of our analytics model, dropping Texas Tech out of the top 10 as the Longhorns claim the No. 1 spot
Before World Cup, FIFA slammed for politicising sport with Trump prize
Football officials and players question FIFA’s decision to award its inaugural Peace Prize to US President Donald Trump.
Editorial | Sports ticket pricing is absurd
The upcoming FIFA World Cup and 2028 Summer Olympics have shown that it may be more worth it to simply plop down on your couch to watch the games.
Allyson Felix attempting Olympic comeback at 40: Most decorated women's track athlete eyes 2028 Games
Felix would be 42 when the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics begin
OpenAI could be making a phone with AI agents replacing apps
The phone could go in mass production in 2028, an analyst says.
NASA wants to use a fleet of MoonFall drones to scout the lunar south pole: 'We believe we can do it'
"Our goal is that each drone can cover a range of roughly 30 miles and get that done by the end of 2028."
Gossip: Blues consider reuniting with Conte
Napoli manager Antonio Conte is among the candidates being considered by Chelsea as the permanent successor to Liam Rosenior next season. Express) Porto boss Francesco Farioli is also on Chelsea's shortlist but his contract runs until 2028 and contains a 20m euros (£17.3m) release clause. Nicolo Schira) Newcastle have emerged as contenders to sign Nicolas Jackson, who will return to Chelsea in the summer after Bayern Munich confirmed they will not turn the striker's loan into a permanent move.
The long rumored foldable iPad may never see the light of day.
Apple has supposedly been working on a folding tablet since at least 2023. The rumored release has slipped from 2024, to 2026, to 2028, to 2029, and now, according to Mark Gurman, it might not happen at all. While it was a priority for incoming CEO John Ternus, its future is now in doubt: > Foldable iPad: Apple has been working on a roughly 20-inch foldable iPad. This device has been a Ternus priority but may end up being a wacky experiment that doesn’t see the light of day, according to several people who have worked on it.
Kamala Harris expected to blame Democrats and Republicans for failed economic policy at state party dinner
The former vice president recently told the National Action Network Conference that she's considering running for president in 2028.
Potential 2028 presidential candidates gather in L.A. for Democratic fundraiser
Democratic governors, some eyeing 2028 presidential bids, gathered in Los Angeles for a big-dollar party fundraiser.
iPhone Evolution: Massive Leaks Reveal Apple’s Plan Through 2028
Massive leaks reveal Apple's iPhone plan through 2028. From the iPhone Fold and "Liquid Glass" design to the 200MP camera & more.
LA 2028 Olympic cricket stadium in IPL proposal
The Olympic cricket stadium for LA 2028 could host Indian Premier League teams as part of their global expansion plans, says Kolkata Knight Riders chief executive Venky Mysore.
New cricket stadium in California heralds sport's Olympic return after 128 years
Construction is underway for a new world-class cricket venue in Southern California, which will be used for the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
What are the new Olympic sports and events at the 2028 Los Angeles Games?
The 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games is bringing several new sports, events, and athlete quotas.
NWSL AWARDS EXPANSION FRANCHISE TO COLUMBUS,MARKING THE LEAGUE’S 18TH CLUB | News
Haslam Sports Group, Nationwide and Drs. Christine and Pete Edwards lead movement to bring globe’s top women’s soccer league to Central Ohio for inaugural 2028 season
Columbus Crew owners get 18th NWSL franchise for record fee
The NWSL awarded an expansion franchise to Columbus, Ohio, and an ownership consortium led by the Haslam Sports Group. The new Columbus-based team will begin play in 2028.
Columbus National Women's Soccer League team to debut in 2028
Columbus is getting a National Women's Soccer League team, set to debut in 2028 at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field.
In California, Israel is emerging as a defining Democratic test
As the war in Iran stretches on, it is inflaming an intraparty rift with ramifications for the midterms and the run-up to 2028.
Painted Tree closure locks out vendors, leaving Houston small businesses scrambling
Houston vendors said they’ve been locked out of Painted Tree stores after sudden closures, struggling to recover inventory and facing steep financial losses.
A24 sets 2028 release for ‘Elden Ring’ film. See cast, more
Released in 2022, "Elden Ring" was based on the worldbuilding of George R. R. Martin, author of the book series that inspired "Game of Thrones."
Alex Garland’s ELDEN RING in theaters 3.3.28 filmed for IMAX® with production underway full cast announced
Bandai Namco Entertainment and A24 have announced the live-action adaptation of the fantasy game Elden Ring, written and directed by Alex Garland, will be Filmed for IMAX and released on March 3, 2028. Production begins in Spring 2026, with the full cast announced:
Why Democrats with 2028 hopes are calling Lina Khan – and what she’s telling them about remaking the economy
Lina Khan is getting constant calls from Democrats, many of them thinking about presidential runs, to sound out problems and workshop potential solutions. That’s a shift from when she was Federal Trade Commission chair and some party leaders avoided meetings or events with her. Khan hasn’t changed so much as the world around her has. Many Americans are furious about rising costs, affordability, technological changes, and soaring profits for the rich. And President Donald Trump has maximized the levers of federal power in ways that were once considered off-limits in both parties. What Khan has in mind for the next Democrat in the White House isn’t a 1,000-page blueprint like the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. It’s more of an overall strategy rooted in her specialty: excavating long-forgotten laws already on the books, then finding ways to apply them to 21st century companies.
Class of 2028 celebrates Declaration Day, computer science sees sharp decrease in majors
The Class of 2028 celebrated Declaration Day on Cannon Green as major declaration data showed declines in computer science and increases in several other departments.
Indonesia advances One Health and pandemic preparedness through CARE-I
CARE-I is financed by the Pandemic Fund, a global financing mechanism established in 2022 to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness and response, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The programme focuses on advancing the One Health approach by strengthening collaboration across human, animal and environmental health sectors at both national and subnational levels. It will be implemented for three years from 2026 to 2028.
Dems' 2028 primary is coming for hopefuls' partners, too
Would-be first ladies and first gentlemen already are building public profiles — some with vigorous enthusiasm.
Potential 2028 Democrats Audition in Michigan,With a Focus on Trump
Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky spoke at a gathering of party insiders in Detroit, fueling presidential speculation.
Another poll shows Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis staring up at JD Vance in 2028 GOP sweepstakes, each struggling with young voters
Can a Florida man win the White House in 2028?
4 takeaways from the new campaign finance filings: From the Politics Desk
Plus, why the 2028 presidential primaries will likely be jam-packed with candidates.
LA28 Opens $$ Opportunities for Local LA Businesses in 2028 Games
LA28 releases procurement plan directing 75% of spending to Greater Los Angeles region and 25% to small businesses for 2028 Olympic Games. Register at RAMPLA.org.
Arc Raiders Death Spiral Is A Problem Other Games Would Kill For
Also: the Call Of Duty movie will be out in summer 2028 and aims to be 'authentic'
First college women’s flag football tournament signals latest step to becoming NCAA sport
With women’s flag football set to debut at the 2028 Summer Olympics, nearly 60 Division I schools have already added the sport.
The main issues Democratic candidates will focus on in 2028
Democrats are facing a new political arena without Trump as an opponent
City and Olympic boss joust over who gets big Games contracts
Your morning catch-up: L.A. officials want more business from 2028 Olympic committee, another woman accused Swalwell of assault and more big stories
Rainier, University of Oklahoma Foundation to Build $1.1B Rock Creek Entertainment District in Norman
NORMAN, OKLA. — Rainier Development Co. has executed a master development agreement with the University of Oklahoma Foundation for the planned Rock Creek Entertainment District, a $1.1 billion project in Norman. Rainier will lead planning, design, coordination and development of the 269-acre district in collaboration with Cleveland County, the City of Norman, the University of Oklahoma, community stakeholders and other development partners. Rock Creek Entertainment District is envisioned as a year-round destination that will include an 8,000-seat performance venue designed to host concerts, conventions and community events, as well as University of Oklahoma men’s and women’s basketball games and women’s gymnastics events. Plans for Phase I of Rock Creek include the performance venue; a central outdoor plaza; approximately 140,000 square feet of retail, dining and entertainment experiences; roughly 250 multifamily units; and a structured parking garage with 1,200 spaces. Phased openings of the venue, restaurants and retail are expected to begin in 2028. Phase II will include approximately 180,000 square feet of office space and a 150-room hotel. Phase III calls for 500 additional multifamily units, as well as townhomes and single-family residences. Future phases are anticipated to include additional expansion, subject to market conditions and planning. The project, located…
Cubans self-medicate as crisis takes toll on mental health: ‘There is no idea to hold on to’
Many people are turning to prescription drugs – and some to herbal remedies and even hard drugs – amid an outlook that feels bleaker than the collapse of the Soviet Union
Is Science the Last Bastion of Sanity?
As we look forward to landing on the moon in 2028, we cannot afford to miss a golden opportunity to enhance the humanities precisely through science.
Hugo Ekitike injury: Liverpool boss Arne Slot gives worrying update after France international stretchered off in PSG defeat
Louisville proposing new sports arena near soccer stadium, per report
Louisville sports officials are reportedly engaged in an effort to build a new sports arena by 2028. The arena would be near Lynn Family Stadium.
JD Vance Seems to Ruin Everything He Touches
Does the vice president really think he has a shot in 2028, despite his consistent failures?
Democrat-Leaning Plan Takes Aim At Health Insurers With Proposed New Regulations
Healthcare initiatives being proposed like Patients' Bill of Rights offer a roadmap for Democrats’ priorities, with midterms looming and a presidential election in 2028.
‘Aggie docs’ coming to San Antonio’s South Side with new medical collaboration
Texas A&M medical students will begin clinical rotations at University Health’s Palo Alto Hospital and Vida clinic in 2028.
Takeaways From the First Big Gathering of Potential 2028 Democratic Candidates
The National Action Network convention showcased similarities and some differences in a wide open field of possible contenders.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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