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Viktor Orbán’s defeat ‘a defining moment’ in Europe. What comes next?
Orbán acknowledged Sunday that he was too far behind to stage a comeback against Péter Magyar, Hungary’s new prime minister.
Yankees Social Media Spotlight: At Least Jeter’s Happy
Derek Jeter’s Michigan Wolverines won the NCAA Men’s National Championship. Nothing else of note happened this week.
Stanford Health, Alameda County forge new partnership for St. Rose Hospital
Alameda County leaders and health care groups gathered outside St. Rose Hospital last week to announce an expansion to medical services for thousands of East Bay residents.
Illinois Valley Community College’s SciFest returns April 17 with 100+ hands-on science experiments
Illinois Valley Community College will host its annual SciFest on April 17 at 7 p.m. in the College Gymnasium, featuring more than 100 interactive science demonstrations and experiments.
TST Best Bets: April 12, 2026
The day has come for the NBA’s 82-game regular season to come to an end, as all 30 teams play in their last contest of the season on Sunday with the final chance to lock in their postseason seeding. With the majority of the seeding locked up at the top of both conferences, the Eastern Conference’s lower rung will provide most of the excitement on the final slate, as seeds 5-10 are all yet to be decided. But the most consequential unresolved race impacting who will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy
All Things Detroit Day draws shoppers, celebrates small businesses at Eastern Market
The Sheds at Eastern Market were buzzing Sunday as shoppers poured in for All Things Detroit Day, an annual celebration of local small businesses featuring more than 100 vendors offering everything from apparel to food.
Golfers battle Trump takeover of public golf courses as one becomes White House East Wing dumping ground
Metropolitan champion Hurricanes beat Mammoth 4-1 for 6th win in 7 games
The win puts Carolina within one point of securing the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
Pokemon Champions Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards leaked
Pokémon Champions has already leaked details about its Battle Pass Season M-2 rewards. The next season isn’t expected to start for quite a bit. Pokemon Champions just launched this week, and alongside that, Season M-1 started up. It should be running until May 12, so the next one isn’t expected until at least a month from now. That said, if...
Opinion: NASA flew by the moon, but behind the scenes, its science is a chaotic mess
Opinion: NASA flew by the moon, but behind the scenes, its science is a chaotic mess
I’m part of Gen Z. Social media didn’t ruin my generation.
Laws restricting phone use won’t solve root causes of adolescent anxiety.
Ira Winderman: Wins up, seed similar, season sideways for Heat
MIAMI — A better record. A similar play-in seed. But at least less drama, so there’s that. A year ago, when assessing a 37-45 season that delivered the Heat to the No. 10 and final play-in seed, the thought was of a net gain in escaping a half season of Jimmy Butler drama. Now, when assessing a record assured of finishing on the plus side of .500, the question is if the gain is tangible, ...
At a mahjong table in Iowa, a struggle over which party to trust
Women courted in key races weigh their choices — and whether the president’s policies have delivered for a working-class town hit by tariffs, war and rising costs.
China, Iran weaponized the global economy to beat the U.S. at its own game
Washington once enjoyed a near monopoly over this type of economic warfare, but now American consumers and companies are starting to feel the pain.
Africa is losing health workers when it can least afford to – a pattern rooted in colonial history
Health workers consistently move from poorer countries to richer ones, a pattern that tracks closely along lines drawn by colonial history.
Michigan’s strong third inning helps secure win over MSU
EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) – Michigan State’s late comeback fell short against rival Michigan, as the Wolverines came away with the 6-4 win. The win on Saturday was the Wolverines’ fifth straight. Nick Williams hit an RBI single to right field in the second inning, allowing Ryan McKay to score and give MSU an early 1-0 […]
Iran war diverts US military and attention from Asia ahead of Trump's summit with China's leader
President Barack Obama in 2011 declared it was time to leave behind the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and “pivot” to Asia to counter China’s rise
How aggressive breast cancer turns off the immune system
Researchers are launching a new project to crack the mystery of aggressive breast cancer, where predicting disease progression remains a major hurdle. By studying how tumors interact with and suppress the immune system, scientists aim to identify new biomarkers that reveal how the cancer evolves. Using real patient samples, the team hopes to turn earlier discoveries into practical clinical tools. The goal: more precise, personalized treatments that can outsmart even the most dangerous tumors.
Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
Black doulas work to bridge health disparities for Black mothers
Saturday marked Global Black Doula Day and the start of Black Maternal Health Week. Pregnant and postpartum parents gathered on the West Side for a community baby shower.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Seniors: John Lemp, 70
Has been working for more than 50 years in the business — M. Lemp Jewelers in Syracuse — that his great-grandfather started in 1890 By Mary Beth Roach Don Lemp owns and represents the fourth-generation of the family business, M. Lemp Jewelers, but he still calls himself “a counter guy.” “I love interacting with couples. It’s a wonderful business. You’re celebrating marriages, engagements, births, anniversaries — all these different significant moments that people invite you into their lives for whatever brief period of time it might be to help them celebrate whatever their important occasion is,” he said. This is one of several reasons why Lemp, at 70, has been working for more than 50 years in the business that his great-grandfather started in 1890. Always located in the downtown Syracuse area, the store has been situated in the building that the family owns on East Fayette and Warren streets since 1971. He jokes that he’s been in the business so long he is now selling engagement rings to the second generation in some families. He also loves the opportunity to learn about the ever-changing industry and gemstones. “You have to know not only diamonds, but all the colored stones, from A to Z, from andalusite to zircons,” he said. Lemp said he had originally thought he wanted to become an attorney, but while working part-time in the store while attending college at Syracuse University, he decided to follow in the family business. His father, Walter D. Lemp Sr., and his mother tried to discourage their son from pursuing retail, reminding him of the hectic hours and lifestyle intrinsic in this business. But the younger Lemp [whose full name is Walter D. Lemp Jr.] prevailed. So, over the years, father and son got to work together in the family business for 35 years. And while many other jewelers retreated from downtown to suburban malls in the 1970s, the Lemps decided to stay downtown. And it’s a decision that Lemp Jr. feels it has worked out well. As he explained, downtown Syracuse is seeing a rebirth. One website, Point2Home.com, has noted that more than 6,000 people live there and the median income is about $62,000. In addition, according to the website that Lemp built years ago, the store can cater to customers throughout the country. His customers, whether from across the country or across Onondaga County, are just one reason that Lemp stays engaged in the business. His employees, the opportunity to continue to learn in an industry, and the challenge to continue to improve business are all other reasons, he noted. He’s also been able to travel to India to buy diamonds and he enjoys buying and selling estates. “I’d rather gallop in the corral than ride into the sunset,” Lemp said.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Hornets aim to bounce back in season finale vs. Knicks
After clinching the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks are expected to sit a number of key players in their regular-season finale against the visiting Charlotte Hornets on Sunday.
Newly discovered fossil challenges idea of ape origins in east Africa
The remains, discovered in 2023 and 2024, are incomplete, and made up of only a few jawbone fragments and worn teeth.
Pistons, Pacers close regular season in opposite positions
With the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference already locked up, the Detroit Pistons visiting the Indiana Pacers on Sunday in Indianapolis with an opportunity to complete a 60-win regular season for the first time in 20 years.
Federal judges say White House ballroom construction can continue, for now
President Donald Trump has claimed that a building pause poses a risk to national security.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
San Jose faces legal heat over mental health crisis calls
A group of civil rights organizations is ratcheting up the legal pressure on San Jose over longstanding complaints that too often mental health-related emergency calls receive a police response — rather than assistance from mental health professionals.
Radical Rob demonstrates fun science experiments on 'Fox & Friends Weekend'
Mad Science NYC & Westchester's chief mad scientist Rob Diaz demonstrates home experiments with the hosts of 'Fox & Friends Weekend.'
How Kodak is trying to turn around its business after teetering on bankruptcy
Photography company Eastman Kodak has seen its fair share of financial struggles, but CEO Jim Continenza is determined to fuel its success.
Ahead of fishing opener, health officials update fish consumption guidelines
The new fish consumption guidelines include warnings about eating too much fish caught in northeastern Minnesota lakes and rivers, where fish tend to have higher mercury levels. And the state warns against consuming fish from the Vermillion River, south of the Twin Cities, because of PFAS contamination.
Mike Johnson, Steve Scalise face a long, difficult to-do list as Congress returns
WASHINGTON — U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise return to Capitol Hill Monday afternoon after a two-week Easter break with a long list of “must
These women had their breasts removed to thwart cancer. Then came the pain.
Many women are afflicted by post-mastectomy pain syndrome, which spans from uncomfortable to disabling and can last years. It’s inconsistently diagnosed and treated, leaving some women in agony as they hunt for relief and struggle to find doctors who take their pain seriously.
How Congress’s bipartisan high point led to our era of political rancor
36 years ago, a Republican president and Democratic lawmakers produced monumental laws. Now, a broken Congress has enabled Trump to undo key parts of that legacy.
Vance, who wasn’t keen on Iran war, now tasked with trying to end it
The weekend’s peace talks in Islamabad mark Vance’s highest-profile assignment as vice president, with concomitant political risk.
Trump, sounding like Biden, says he deserves more credit
America’s last two presidents have spent years as political foils. Both feel the American public does not give them enough credit.
13 years ago, a young Rostraver mom prepared to die; the ‘super responder’ now shows no signs of cancer
In 2013, 28-year-old Kate Crawford threw herself into preparing for her death. She had a fresh diagnosis of metastatic breast cancer, an estimated 18 to...
King County confirms measles case in infant; exposure risk in Bellevue and Seattle low
Public Health – Seattle & King County is warning of potential measles exposures in Bellevue, northeast Seattle, and on public transit after confirming a case in
Hawks make the playoffs with rout of Cavs
CJ McCollum scored 29 points and the Atlanta Hawks used a big third quarter to blow out the Cleveland Cavaliers 124-102 on Friday night, clinching a playoff spot and the Southeast Division title.
Memorial Health Foundation fashion show raises over $142K
The Memorial Health Foundation 21st annual Fashion Show, this year with a Masquerade Ball theme, drew a large crowd and raised more than $142,000, with proceeds supporting local cancer patients and related health initiatives. The annual fundraiser supports the foundation’s cancer patient emergency fund and breast health initiatives, helping individuals undergoing treatment with expenses such […]
Report: Dianna Russini "will not be reporting" during internal investigation
The New York Times has reversed course regarding NFL insider Dianna Russini.
Arizona House passes bill restricting drones near large entertainment events
The bill would make it illegal to fly a drone within a mile of a ticketed entertainment event at venues with at least 1,000 people capacity.
America’s Car-Mart in Kirksville abruptly closes after 13 years in business
KIRKSVILLE, Mo. — A car dealership in northeast Missouri abruptly closed this week.
Science of seismic proportions
Arizona’s deserts might not be situated on a tectonic plate boundary where geographical activity can cause earthquakes, but that doesn’t make the state immune from the disturbance of tremors.It has been 139 years since Arizona’s strongest recorded earthquake on the Pitaycachi fault struck in 1887. The 7.5 magnitude event, known as the Sonoran Earthquake, took place near the southeastern Arizona-Mexico border.
Trump raked in $28 million from Middle East business deals. Then he started a war.
The president's Persian Gulf real estate projects are worth roughly $17 billion.
Flag-raising ceremonies honor lifesaving organ donation
Penn State Health honored the lifesaving impact of organ donation during April 9 flag-raising ceremonies in Hershey and East Pennsboro Township.
New Research Shows Many Social-Science Papers Lean Left. Does That Mean Bias?
A study used AI to analyze hundreds of thousands of abstracts published over the past 64 years.
Penner Sports Group becomes largest minority owner of MLB's Colorado Rockies
Broncos owners Carrie Walton Penner and Greg Penner are expanding their footprint in Denver sports.
The Trump administration just updated rules for CDC's vaccine advisory panel, allowing inclusion of RFK Jr. allies
The changes published Thursday come after a recent legal defeat that has at least temporarily halted meetings of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, which for decades has recommended how best to use the nation’s vaccines.
Photos: Makeup tests, shoulder cuff health and student presentations
Darryna Guy-Williams, a bioengineering and bio chemistry major, sprays Jenna King, class TA and postdoctorate candidate in chemistry and chemical biology, with a facial hydrating mist in Leila Deravi’s cosmetic chemistry class.
East Lyme business acquires East Hampton’s Bee Smart Pest Control
Debug Pest Control, an East Lyme-based pest management company, has acquired Bee Smart Pest Control, according to an announcement Thursday. Bee Smart, based in East Hampton, was owned and operated […]
PC Industry In Dire Straits, 'Asking You to Own Nothing and Be Happy,’ Says Framework CEO
At least one laptop maker is saying what PC owners have all been thinking.
David Spade calls on California leaders to change course, save entertainment industry
David Spade, Dana Carvey, and Tim Dillon spoke about how the entertainment industry in LA has been in crisis for years, to the point people and projects are fleeing to other states. (Fly on the Wall podcast, April 8, 2026)
Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims, Jr. talks mental health with Aurora elementary students
Partnering with Aurora Mental Health & Recovery, Mims has prioritized discussing mental health with youth in the area.
Lacrosse, Flag Football Set to Compete at Women In Sports Day in Baltimore
EMMITSBURG, Md. (April 10, 2026) – Mount St. Mary's host their inaugural Women In Sports Day at the Under Armour Stadium at the House in Baltimore. Women's lacrosse battles Canisius in a crucial Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) game, while flag football resumes play in the Eastern Collegiate Athletic Conference (ECAC) with a contest against Saint Joseph's.
Watch out for college sports 'reforms' that shortchange student-athletes
If the system is constrained for those whose labor actually generates the revenue, that is not reform — it is codified inequality.
Covista taps Walden University leader to integrate marketing, digital innovation
Health care education company Covista is expanding the role of Walden University President Michael Betz to include chief growth and innovation officer duties.
"This is not a game that is about to face some sort of imminent shutdown" - Marathon reportedly had a budget of $200m, and while player numbers are dipping, team morale remains good
Marathon reportedly had a development of over at least $200m, and likely over $250m.
St. Petersburg Council advances $600M infrastructure bond proposal to Committee
Council took up the item without debate, reflecting desire to at least advance the conversation through the process despite likely debate.
Note to Colorado lawmakers — parents protecting kids isn’t abuse, it’s their job
By Matt Sharp and Sharon Supp During the last few years, the U.S. Supreme Court has made at least one thing clear: Colorado is consistently overreaching to apply its laws in unconstitutional ways. Colorado treated a cake artist with hostility because of his religious beliefs in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission. The state […]
Umatilla to celebrate grand opening of new business center
UMATILLA — The city of Umatilla announced it will hold a ribbon-cutting ceremony and grand opening on May 8 for the new Umatilla Business Center. The event takes place 5:30-8:30 […]
Making cutting-edge science accessible to early physics students
By feeding students the mysteries and wonder of modern physics, Don Lincoln hopes to ‘blow their minds.’
Knicks stay in hunt with late win over rival Celtics
Josh Hart and Jalen Brunson kept the New York Knicks in the hunt for second place in the NBA's Eastern Conference as they beat the Boston Celtics 112-106 Thursday.But a Hart layup and a Brunson free throw restored the Knicks' lead, before Hart finished the game off.
Agriculture secretary’s religious Easter message to all employees sparks internal backlash and a formal complaint
A “Christ is Risen” Easter message sent by the secretary of agriculture has sparked backlash inside the department, angering some of its nearly 100,000 employees and prompting a formal complaint against the secretary for the religious message.
Project Indigo expands support to iPads and the iPhone 17e
The new update to Adobe’s experimental camera app adds initial support for iPads with at least 6GB of RAM and the new iPhone 17e.
Op-ed: You don’t have to major in business because your dad told you to
I’m a second-year student at Northeastern, and I’ve already changed my major four times — twice last semester. I know that sounds stressful, kind of scary and like I have no idea what I want to do with my life. But currently, my major is combined political science and journalism, and despite the changes I...
The dark money group fighting NYC’s new health insurance plan
Hands Off NY Care has raked in at least $1.4 million in contributions as it sues the city over the new insurance plan.
Evers signs law legalizing tribal run online sports betting in Wisconsin
MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers signed a bill into law on April 9 that legalizes online sports betting, making it the 33rd state to allow the practice. ...
Looking for sports to watch for free? Here's a FAST way to do it
FAST stands for free ad-supported streaming television. Granted, FAST channels don’t carry the biggest games, but in a world where watching sports only gets more expensive, I refer you back to the word FREE.
Nevada Health Centers’ Mammovan expands rural mammograms, seeks licensed drivers
For women across Nevada, getting an annual mammogram can be quicker and more convenient thanks to a mobile clinic designed to bring breast cancer screenings dir
U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index
Small businesses are healthy but cautious in Q1 2026, with inflation back as the No. 1 concern and owners dialing back growth plans.
Comedians Roast Trump’s Delusional Belief That He’s Healthy
David Spade, Dana Carvey, and Tim Dillon questioned Trump’s energy despite his “purple legs and purple hands.”
Democrats grow bolder on talk about removing Trump from office after his Iran threats
While President Donald Trump eventually pulled back on his threat and agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, Democrats face growing demands to oppose the Republican president in the strongest possible terms.
EisnerAmper to add KLG Business Valuators & Forensic Accountants
The Top 20 Firm will acquire KLG Business Valuators & Forensic Accountants in a deal expected to close this May.
Warriors still waiting for a real glimpse at their highest on-court priority
After hoping to evaluate the Steph Curry-Kristaps Porziņģis synergy for at least four games, the Golden State Warriors now will have no more than two.
NC builders chase billions in defense deals at Wilmington conference
A big federal construction conference takes place next week at the convention center in Wilmington. It is the Southeast Region Construction, Infrastructure and Environmental Summit, held by the North Carolina Military Business Center. Courtney Smedick at the NCMBC says that the conference is about to sell out, so if you want to attend, you should […]
G7 One Health Summit launches global diagnostics initiative, and other health stories
Top health news: G7 launches global diagnostics initiative; Five actions to end tuberculosis; Middle East conflict impacts healthcare.
Sterling ticks higher, remains driven by Middle East developments
The pound inched higher on the dollar on Thursday and held onto the bulk of U.S.-Iran ceasefire-inspired gains the previous session, though with that deal looking fragile it failed to climb any further.
A tiny experiment using Artemis II astronaut cells could reshape medicine
Chips seeded with the astronauts’ bone marrow cells circled the moon to help probe how deep-space flight affects human biology.
Women in business meet in empowerment symposium
The East St. Tammany Business Alliance recently held their Business & Bubbles Women’s Empowerment Symposium at the Harbor Center, an annual women-focused, signature event that brings together women in business
Democrats push to pass Iran war powers resolution despite House recess, accusing Trump of ‘unhinged behavior’
Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democrat leader, will use pro forma session to try to pass measure requiring president to withdraw US forces from Middle East
Supreme Court remade by Trump ushers in historic defeats for civil rights
The court is the first since at least the ’50s to reject claims in a majority of cases involving women and minorities, an analysis conducted for The Post shows.
6 science-backed exercises that may help people with Parkinson’s
Exercise may offer a benefit that pills, tablets and patches can’t replicate.
CDC delays publishing report showing covid vaccine benefits
The acting CDC director cited concerns with the methodology, but the design has long been used to test vaccine effectiveness.
Oil price rises as markets question durability of Middle East ceasefire
Gas prices also increase, while global stock markets slip back after strong rally on Wednesday
Oil rises and Asian stocks fall amid worries over ‘fragile’ ceasefire deal in Middle East
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
What the 'Science of Reading' Movement Has Meant for English Learners (Opinion)
We should think of reading instruction for multilingual learners as a bridge, not a checklist.
Popular Scottsdale sports grill, Chandler sushi spot cited by health inspectors
Four East Valley restaurants, including a popular sports grill, and a West Valley taco spot were among places cited by health inspectors in this week's Dirty Dining report.
A teetering ceasefire bodes ill for treacherous US-Iran talks ahead
The sad truth is that Middle East ceasefires don’t always stop the shooting.
A Look At AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Valuation After Record Easter Weekend Box Office Momentum
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is back in focus after reporting record Easter weekend results, with more than 6 million guests and strong food, beverage, and merchandise revenue tied to The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. The record Easter weekend has arrived alongside a sharp short term rebound, with a 7 day share price return of 30.1% and 1 month share price return of 18.6%. However, this sits against a 1 year total shareholder return...
Fracking Industry Misuses Science to Push Toxic Waste Rule
New Analysis Finds Falsified Produced Water Science Ahead of High-Stakes New Mexico Decision
April 9: An ugly number for social science
Public-funding pinch. Gen Z sours on AI. Graduating lawyers get $10,000?
News | Plans for 1.6 million square foot Manchester airport-based science and innovation campus lodged
MIX MANCHESTER focuses on a 60-acre site
Jalen Brunson, Knicks stand between Celtics, No. 2 seed
The Boston Celtics can clinch the No. 2 seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs when they visit the New York Knicks on Thursday night.
Greg Gutfeld: Democrats deemed health and fitness ‘problematic’
‘The Five’ co-hosts analyze HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s midterm travel push to boost support for the ‘Make America Healthy Again’ initiative.
Detroit hiring retail director to boost stores in neighborhood business districts
Jeffrey Lewis II opened Morningside Cafe on Detroit’s east side three years ago and said he has seen growing momentum along East Warren Avenue.
Lots of Social Science Won’t Replicate. Does That Mean It’s Bunk?
Scholars are debating the results of an effort to assess hundreds of papers’ credibility. Where some see failure and cause for urgent reform, others see reason for hope.