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Warriors forward Green details LeBron recruiting pitch
Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green detailed his recruiting pitch to LeBron James on his podcast on Sunday, hoping to play alongside the NBA all-time scoring leader next season.Green spent time with James recently, and said he took the chance to make his move on luring James to Golden State.
Milwaukee Bucks Make Tyler Herro Announcement After Trade
Tyler Herro was traded (via the Miami Heat) to the Milwaukee Bucks earlier this month.The former Kentucky star had spent all seven seasons of his career with the Heat.He is coming off a year where he had averages of 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.1 assists per contest while shooting 48.0% from the field and […] The post Milwaukee Bucks Make Tyler Herro Announcement After Trade appeared first on HEAVY.
Draymond believes ‘crazy' pitch to LeBron will make star free agent's brain work
Draymond Green confirmed that he spent time with LeBron James last week, and the Warriors star made the case for the 41-year-old to join Golden State.
Acadiana's Pat Mire continues Cajun mission with 'Pointe Noire'
A French-speaking native of Eunice and Lafayette resident, Mire has spent 30 years telling compelling stories in settings filled with Cajun traditions and culture.
Can Corn Really Make Maryland More Humid? Here’s The Science
CALIFORNIA, Md. — If you have spent a late summer afternoon in Maryland and wondered why the air feels especially sticky, you may have heard the term “corn sweat.” While the phrase sounds unusual, it describes a real process that can contribute to humid conditions during the growing season. Corn, like many plants, releases water vapor into […]
White House Directed Patel to Oversee Investigation Involving Times Reporting
The F.B.I. director spent about eight hours at the White House Friday focused on the effort, which led to the subpoenaing of several Times reporters who wrote about the security of Air Force One.
New England Patriots’ Defense Still Has One Major Blind Spot
The New England Patriots spent the offseason strengthening a defense that already finished fourth in the NFL in points allowed.They added talent around Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis and Milton Williams, in addition to reshaping the linebacker room and continuing to build the type of fast, physical unit head coach Mike Vrabel prefers.There is still one […] The post New England Patriots’ Defense Still Has One Major Blind Spot appeared first on HEAVY.
Dwayne Johnson has been trying to star on Broadway with Kevin Hart in this classic play: ‘Not letting that dream go’
Dwayne Johnson said that he has spent ‘the past two and a half to three years’ trying to make his Broadway debut alongside Kevin Hart in a new production of this classic play: ‘Not letting that dream go.’
Celtics Teammate Makes Feelings Clear on Jaylen Brown After Trade
The Boston Celtics have spent the past week responding to the Jaylen Brown trade from every corner of the organization. Brad Stevens laid out the reasoning. Joe Mazzulla spoke about trust and gratitude. Jayson Tatum reflected on what it felt like to lose a nine-year teammate.On Friday in Las Vegas, more voices from inside the […] The post Celtics Teammate Makes Feelings Clear on Jaylen Brown After Trade appeared first on HEAVY.
Rotta The Hutt Is Ready To Be The Hottest Halloween Costume Of The Year
Everyone, please stop calling me Jabba the Hutt, okay? I spent like $80 on this thing
Talk To Me Jimmy, Sculcos Folly Lead New York Derby
Two horses that spent the late winter and spring on the Kentucky Derby trail and another that has blown away New York-bred competition at every asking will headline a talented field for Monday’s $155,000 New York Derby. The New York Derby, one of the richest races of the season at Finger Lakes ...
After Leaving the Marine Corps, She Spent $20 to Start a Side Hustle. Now Her Business Makes $3M a Month: ‘People Absolutely Loved It.’
Hannah Pollack's elevated twist on a nostalgic sweet gained fans immediately.
Liverpool latest: Michael Edwards leaves as chief executive officer of football for Fenway Sports Group
Michael Edwards spent almost 15 years at Liverpool over two spells; he oversaw the arrival of Arne Slot following Jurgen Klopps departure; Slot was replaced by Andoni Iraola this summer; Edwards is credited with signing players that helped with Liverpools last two Premier League titles
How ‘skill games’ exploded across Pennsylvania — and sparked a multimillion-dollar political fight
Parx Casino and Pace-O-Matic spent millions battling over Pa. gambling policy. Lawmakers now must decide who wins.
Small Business Spotlight: Business blooms beyond bouquets
BUSINESS: The Busy Bloom OWNERS: Amanda and Walter Adkins ADDRESS: 708 S. 17th St., Wilmington EMAIL: thebusybloomco@gmail.com WEBSITE: thebusybloomco.com PHONE NUMBER: (910) 742-0790 YEAR FOUNDED: 2024 NO. OF EMPLOYEES: 4 WHAT IS THE BUSY BLOOM? AMANDA ADKINS: “The Busy Bloom is a flower shop with a spin – a creative experience shop located in Wilmington’s Cargo District. Founded in 2024 by husband-and-wife team Amanda and Walter Adkins, we offer fresh flowers, botanical teas, a build-your-own bouquet bar, candle-making experiences, gifts, workshops, wedding florals and event services. Our mission is simple: to make flowers accessible, approachable and enjoyable for everyone – not just for special occasions.” WHY DID YOU START THE BUSINESS? AMANDA ADKINS: “The Busy Bloom was born from a lifelong connection to flowers and a desire to create meaningful experiences for people. After doing my own wedding florals and after years of working in healthcare management, I found myself returning to gardening and floral design as a creative outlet and source of healing. The loss of my mother-in-law, who always shared flowers from her garden, inspired me to pursue floristry full-time. My husband encouraged me and built a small flower cart for us to grow, and fast forward to now, two years later, it has grown into a community-centered business focused on bringing joy, connection and creativity through flowers.” WHAT KIND OF GROWTH ARE YOU HOPING FOR? AMANDA ADKINS: “We’re focused on sustainable growth that allows us to continue serving our community while expanding creative experiences. We hope to grow our wedding and event services, expand our educational workshops and creative programming and become a destination where people can gather, create and connect. We’re also passionate about creating opportunities that showcase floral design as an art form, such as our Fleur Couture fashion show and other community collaborations.” WHAT PAST EXPERIENCE HAVE YOU HAD WITH STARTING/WORKING IN BUSINESS? AMANDA ADKINS: “Before opening The Busy Bloom, I worked as a clinical manager in healthcare and spent years building leadership, operations and customer service skills. I’ve also worked in education and nonprofit programming, teaching people about nature and local ecosystems. Along the way, I designed flowers for weddings and events on the side, gradually turning a passion into a business. Walter has years of welding and construction experience, combined with entrepreneurship and a drive to own his own company. …The Busy Bloom has been a journey of combining creativity with entrepreneurship alongside my husband ... learning every step of the way.”
The Business Perspective Is Being Entirely Ignored
Perhaps public transit solutions is what $528,000 should have been spent on, instead of fake wood pedlets along the 500 block?
Students get hands-on science education during Camp Invention
COLUMBIANA – Students of Heartland Christian School in Columbiana recently spent a week experiencing what it is like to create a product, develop a proposal and market the product. The students in grades two through six participated in Camp Invention, a nationally recognized summer STEM camp designed to make innovation fun. Camp Invention is one […]
Students get hands-on science education during Camp Invention
COLUMBIANA – Students of Heartland Christian School in Columbiana recently spent a week experiencing what it is like to create a product, develop a proposal and market the product. The students in grades two through six participated in Camp Invention, a nationally recognized summer STEM camp designed to make innovation fun. Camp Invention is one […]
OpenAI’s Chief Futurist Is Leaving the Company
Joshua Achiam spent nearly nine years at OpenAI researching AI safety and made a memorable appearance in the Musk v. Altman trial.
The Right Thing: Why I buy books when I travel
Do we owe anything to the places we visit? Last month, I spent some time in Savannah, Georgia, with family. Like many travelers, the woman I’d eat bees for and
Active volcano traps Whoopi Goldberg in Italy
Whoopi Goldberg is trapped in Italy amid an active volcano eruption, forcing her to miss ‘The View’ with airports closed in the region: ‘Spent most of the day trying to get back,’ she said.
The Sports Audio Report: Demographics at Play
Younger Sports Fans Are More Likely to Engage with Sports Audio Download the Report >> Millennial and Gen Z sports fans spend more time with sports audio weekly than Gen X and Boomers, according to the Sports Audio Report: Demographics at Play from Edison Research and SiriusXM Media. Millennial sports fans spent an average of 6 hours and 16 minutes with...
A scientist built 200 hotels for bees. Three years later, the guests he found changed what we know about pollinators and biodiversity
Hotels are usually built for travellers, but some are designed for creatures no bigger than your thumb. Scientists and conservationists have spent years creating these miniature refuges for wild bees in the form of small nesting structures fitted with narrow tunnels that mimic the hollow stems and cavities many solitary bee species naturally use to lay their eggs.
She quit Google and spent a year traveling; changed her view of success
Sara Wilczynska tried everything before leaving Google. She trained in sound healing, led diversity initiatives, and even cut her hours — but it wasn't enough.
NYC axes new rule on roll-down gates for businesses – after retailers already spent thousands
City lawmakers rolled back an obscure, decades-old law about storefront roll-down gates ahead of a looming enforcement deadline – but not before some retailers shelled out thousands of dollars in...
Steve-O reveals which 'half-assed' 'Jackass' stunt was preceded by 'a day doing cocaine'
Steve-O revealed which 'Jackass' stunt he performed after he spent 'a day doing cocaine.'
Former CIA official left Google to start AI business: Career advice
Candice Bryant spent nearly 16 years at the CIA before joining Google. She shares why she left Big Tech and the philosophy that's guided her career.
Vagus Nerve Stimulation Has a Profound Impact on Severe Depression, Major Trial Finds
“They had spent more than half of their lives sick."
LeBron James’ Lakers rift stemmed from failed Russell Westbrook saga
LeBron James’ tenure with the Lakers is over after he informed the NBA franchise he’d spent the past eight seasons with that he’ll sign elsewhere in free agency. While both...
Facing setbacks and resistance, Trump presses bid to reshape elections on multiple fronts
President Trump has spent months waging an unusually aggressive campaign to reshape how states run elections.
Croatia criticised for ‘unambitious’ changes to 2022 science law
Croatia’s science ministry has been accused of a lack of ambition, and even incompetence, over proposed changes to the country’s 2022 science law. Critics say an opportunity has been missed to fix wider shortcomings in the research and universities system.“This law, like all the previous ones, will not significantly change the current state of science in Croatia,” Vlatko Silobrčić, a member of the Croatian Academy of Sciences, told Science Business. “A small shift here and there will not have a significant impact.”The 2022 law introduced multi-year block grant financing of research, based on results, and changes intended to boost employment and career progression for researchers and lecturers. But implementation of the law has been uneven. “It became apparent that certain of its provisions were subject to different interpretations by higher education institutions and scientific institutes,” the science ministry said in its proposal for change. “This caused legal uncertainty in the system, administrative difficulties in implementation and, in certain cases, unequal treatment of teachers, scientists and students.”Most of the proposed amendments deal with technicalities in hiring and promoting staff, such as extending the committee deadlines from 60 to 90 days, or allowing applicants to cite all of their achievements and not only those since their last appointment.Both the ministry and Croatian media highlighted changes that would raise the retirement age from 65 to 67 years and allow part-time students 15 year rather than 10 years to finish their studies.The change to retirement age has been criticised for reinforcing a weakness in the system. According to Matko Marušić, professor emeritus at the University of Split, this will “allow unproductive teachers to advance and work longer, while hindering and discouraging productive ones.”A longtime campaigner for excellence-based meritocracy, he sees little hope in the new legislation. “I am not optimistic that things will improve,” he told Science Business. “As recent changes to the law in Croatia show, the legal framework is becoming increasingly hypocritical and harmful.”For Marušić, who analyses Croatia's university system in a recently published book, the situation is “unfavourable and constantly deteriorating” due to the criteria used for academic advancement.“The key criterion for advancement should be scientific productivity,” he said. “In Croatia [. . .] scientific criteria are increasingly lowered, and ineffective and absurd criteria such as waiting times for promotion and age limits for remaining in a job are promoted.” He would also like to see better criteria for the quality of teaching at universities. “In practice, teaching is not monitored or evaluated,” he said, estimating that up to a third of teaching simply does not take place. “Under the guise of university autonomy and bad laws, universities and faculties are allowed to earn additional money by increasing enrolment quotas that have nothing to do with the needs of the labour market.” Lack of ambitionDora Kršul, a reporter at Telegram.hr who covers science policy in Croatia, finds the rationale for changes “bizarre.” “The ministry responsible for supervising the uniform application of the law is changing the law because it is being implemented unevenly,” she said. “This primarily speaks to the power relationship in the sphere of science and higher education in Croatia, that is, the question arises as to who actually manages this system.”Rather than raising quality, she continued, the changes appear to be designed to help vocational and applied universities who have not been complying with the law.The Independent Union of Research and Higher Education Employees of Croatia said that the changes were “unambitious” and represent a missed opportunity for more important changes. “We think some of the changes are even negative,” it said in its statement on June 25. One of these is introduction of an “assistant” job title that allows people to be hired only for the duration of a project. Related articles: Elections to top science bodies test Croatia’s gender equality in researchSlovakia revises R&D approach to increase focus on competitivenessLatvia pilots citizen engagement in research grant evaluationsThe union’s president, Tvrtko Smital, who was part of the 15-member working group tasked with drafting the changes, told the local media there was a “worrying lack of ambition” in the process, and “lack of competence” in terms of research experience and understanding the problems in the system.“There is no clear will to deal with the problems,” said Smital, an assistant professor of marine and environmental sciences at the Ruđer Bošković Institute in Zagreb. “It’s a combination of unambitiousness and incompetence,” he went on, expressing his “deep frustration” with the situation. “There is no strategy, no clear thinking, and money is not being spent optimally.”Croatia’s science ministry has not responded to requests for comment.
Letter to a Climate Sceptic: What Science Would Like to Tell You
Dear climate sceptics, I address you this evening not as a judge, nor as a lecturer, but as a man who has spent his life watching the sky and listening to what it has to tell us. I come to you with my…
An AP journalist describes a month in the epicenter of Congo’s Ebola outbreak
An Associated Press journalist spent a month in the epicenter of Congo's Ebola outbreak documenting the toll and the challenges for health workers in a conflict zone.
Reflecting on a Year as Athlon Sports' Senior Golf Writer: Lessons from Golf's Stories
One year ago today, I officially began my run as Senior Golf Writer for Athlon Sports. By the time this opportunity arrived, I had already spent nearly three decades in golf as a PGA Professional, coach, educator, business owner, nonprofit founder and writer. The biggest lesson from my first year with Athlon Sports was not about deadlines, access or the volume of stories written.
ESPN reportedly favorite to renew TGL media rights
TGL, the tech-infused simulator golf league co-founded by Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy’s TMRW Sports, is in the market for a new media rights deal after having completed its second season earlier this year. The league spent its first two seasons on the ESPN family of networks, posting strong and stable viewership during a portion…
Trump's crypto earnings far outpace the businesses he spent decades building
NPR's Scott Detrow talks with Bernard Condon of the AP about how President Trump and his family raked in more than a billion dollars last year through crypto ventures.
How the Supreme Court just rewrote the rules of politics
After years of political party power players like Senator Mitch McConnell trying to take control of national party purse strings to which candidates to help and how to shape the party, all it took was one ruling by the Supreme Court to change the way campaign politics is funded. Jen Psaki talks with Jim Messina, former campaign manager for President Barack Obama about how the Supreme Court's ruling changes the game in terms of how political donations are spent.
Atlanta Falcons Players Meet With Fans, Tour Zama During USO Visit
CAMP ZAMA, Japan - Members of the Atlanta Falcons spent time with Soldiers in Camp Zama’s Better Opportunities for Single Soldiers program, or BOSS, Jun...
Peter Grove, award-winning science educator and lifelong environmentalist, has died at 82
He arrived in Philadelphia in 1972 and spent the next 44 years teaching science, horticulture, and civic responsibility to students young and old.
Sony’s Cooling Neck Device Is Coming to the US, and I Got a First Look
I spent a few days testing the Reon Pocket Pro Plus ahead of its US launch. Here's how it went.
Netflix director Carl Rinsch sentenced to over 2 years in prison
The judge said Carl Rinsch may have been in a "manic state" when he bought five Rolls-Royces and a Ferrari but he spent years covering it up.
Comcast cuts NBCUniversal loose. Netflix and Apple may want a look.
Comcast spent 25 years arguing that media and broadband belonged together. Now it's breaking them apart.
Texas Democrats leave convention united in effort to end GOP’s 30-year hold on state politics
Texas Democrats spent their 3-day convention in Corpus Christi rallying party activists, training volunteers and making the case for Democratic policies and candidates across the state ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Texas Democrats leave convention united in effort to end GOP's 30-year hold on Texas
Texas Democrats spent their 3-day convention in Corpus Christi rallying party activists, training volunteers and making the case for Democratic policies and candidates across the state ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
I spent weeks thinking my Pixel's camera lens was smeared before discovering the real culprit
I can finally take good pictures again!
On anniversary of disastrous debate, Biden rallies Democrats at a casino
President Joe Biden spent the second anniversary of his disastrous debate performance at a Maryland casino, giving the keynote speech at an annual fundraiser for Maryland Democrats.
With time running out, Trump digs in on changing midterm election rules
Fearing a Democratic takeover of Congress, the president has spent months trying to alter how the midterms will be conducted, but obstacles keep cropping up.
Spent 6 hours in Amtrak coach and business class, how they compare
I splurged for business class on an Amtrak ride from New York to Vermont. Here's what my $80 upgrade got me.
States seek to lower drug prices by targeting the companies that manage them for health plans
TOPEKA, Kan. — As consumers worry about medication costs, states are trying to lower drug prices by reining in big companies that oversee prescription coverage for health insurers. Some of those companies, called pharmacy benefit managers, also own pharmacies, and one of them, CVS, has spent millions of dollars fighting
Fiorentina agreement for Beltran, but striker resists River Plate
Fiorentina have agreed to sell half of Lucas Beltran to River Plate following the loan at Valencia, but it’s reported the player wants to remain in Europe.The striker spent time in the River Plate a...
Burcum: Sanford Health got what it wanted. Now comes the moment of truth.
From columnist Jill Burcum: The South Dakota health system has spent a decade trying to crack the Twin Cities health care market. With the North Memorial deal, it now has a chance to prove itself.
What scientists discovered about coffee grounds will transform construction industry - Futura-Sciences
At the start of 2024, a study published several months ago is once again drawing attention. Scientists at RMIT University in Australia have identified an unexpected use for spent coffee grounds, opening the door to a promising solution for both the construction sector and organic waste management. From coffee waste...
Former Saints WR Joe Horn inducted into the Louisiana Sports Hall of Fame
Horn spent 7 seasons with the New Orleans Saints
Marseille look to retain three players
Get French Football News understands that every player at Olympique de Marseille – bar none – is available for the right price this summer. The club overspent under Roberto De Zerbi and the purse...
Master Inventor Hoffman Turns Chemistry Into Capability | Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Christopher Hoffman has been recognized as a Johns Hopkins APL Master Inventor, a distinction earned through a career spent asking a simple question: What can chemistry can do to solve a real-world problem?
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic Welcomes Brandi Watson, APRN
Baxter Health is proud to welcome Brandi Watson, APRN, to the Baxter Health Heart and Vascular Clinic. Watson joined the team on May 15 and is currently accepting new patients. Watson brings more than 25 years of experience caring for some of the most critically ill patients. Much of her career has been spent in intensive care settings, where she learned to make fast, high-stakes decisions for patients whose lives depended on getting the right care at the right moment. That kind of experience, which is gained through years at the bedside, is exactly what heart and vascular patients need from a provider.
Business Council deliberations continue with four bill drafts
Lawmakers on the Joint Appropriations Committee spent another day diving through the Wyoming Business Council’s dealings. This time, they also reviewed draft bills that would influence how the council operates.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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