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Iran war strains global business travel, as companies adjust meeting plans
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Report says legalizing online sports betting in Nebraska could generate $87M over 5 years
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New synthetic opioid linked to overdose death in San Francisco
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Wisconsin DOJ sues online prediction markets, charging illegal sports betting
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Public Health Certification: CPH, CDI and the new CPHN
Please join representatives from the National Board of Public Health Examiners as they summarize opportunities for certification in public health.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Most fashion mannequins are about a size 2. The Met Gala exhibit is making room for diverse bodies
The upcoming fashion exhibit at the Metropolitan Museum of Art examines “the dressed body” in art over the centuries | KMBZ
Teaching Legislative Politics Through a Game: Active Learning, Assignment Co-creation, and Assessment Across Modalities -
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Kara Swisher examines the science, tech and business of living longer in new CNN docuseries
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Kara Swisher examines the science, tech and business of living longer in new CNN docuseries
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Kara Swisher examines the science, tech and business of living longer in new CNN docuseries
Kara Swisher begins her new CNN series on longevity and health in a cemetery, reflecting on her father's death | K-DAWN
Kara Swisher examines the science, tech and business of living longer in new CNN docuseries
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NIH awards $15.8 million to University of California for study of Latino brain health
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New concussion study deviates from the norm; most research in this space examines people in their 50s or 60s — decades after sport participation. Instead, this U-M study looks at college athletes in their 20s, and researchers already see the impact of concussion, which enables early intervention.
Italy ‘can’t afford’ another World Cup failure, economically too
La Gazzetta dello Sport examines the figures behind Italy’s possible qualification for the World Cup, arguing that the Azzurri literally can’t afford another play-off elimination.Gennaro Gattuso��...
Effectiveness of politicians’ public denials amid corruption accusations examined in new study
A new article investigates how public denials by politicians accused of corruption influence electoral accountability and why positive and negative partisanship shapes voter reactions.
Segment: Financing Action on Extreme Heat and Maternal and Newborn Health: The Way Forward
The segment “Financing Action on Extreme Heat and Maternal and Newborn Health: The Way Forward” will examine how innovative and better-aligned financing approaches can respond to these growing risks. Discussions will highlight country experiences in mobilizing domestic resources, opportunities to unlock and scale climate finance, and the role of heat-smart innovations in building resilient health systems. Particular attention will be given to low- and middle-income countries, where exposure and vulnerability remain highest, and where integrated solutions can deliver the greatest impact.
Breaking the Cycle review – meet the charismatic Thai politician striving to change his country’s history
Gripping documentary examines the Future Forward Party’s unprecedented 2019 election result, and its leader’s aim to break Thailand’s repeated military coups
Markiplier to Microdramas: The Ankler x NAB Show’s Future of Entertainment
Share Subscribe Vegas, baby! The Ankler is heading back to NAB Show for a second year in a row — and doubling down on conversations with the smartest people in the industry. From April 18–22, we’re partnering again with the industry’s biggest media and tech gathering to break down the Business of Media and Entertainment as it’s actually evolving: faster, riskier and increasingly driven by new formats, new audiences and new power players. This curated series will bring together top creators, executives and innovators to tackle the forces reshaping the industry — from the AI disruption of Hollywood’s creative ecosystem to the rise of the creator economy, shifting audience behavior and the changing economics of production. We’ll be rolling out more programming in the coming weeks — including top speakers from leading AI studios, prediction markets and beyond — so keep an eye on the Business of Media and Entertainment hub. But first up, we’re announcing two panels about what’s actually working in Hollywood: The Scary-Smart Business of Horror A good scare has become one of the entertainment economy’s most reliable engines. With disciplined budgets, built-in fandoms and global box office upside, horror consistently outperforms. From theatrical releases to streaming-first originals and creator-driven IP, the genre is artistically flexible and financially durable — and one of the last truly communal experiences for Gen Z and Gen Alpha audiences. Join YouTube creator Mark Fischbach, aka Markiplier, whose independent feature Iron Lung earned more than $50 million at the global box office, Atomic Monster president Michael Clear and screenwriter Akela Cooper (M3GAN, Malignant) for a conversation moderated by Like & Subscribe’s Natalie Jarvey about why horror travels so effectively across platforms and borders, how studios and independents are building sustainable genre pipelines and why the next wave of breakout franchises may emerge from unexpected sources. Inside the Microdrama Boom Short-form serialized storytelling is having a major moment. Microdramas, social-native series and creator-led narratives are capturing massive audiences with low-cost, rapid production cycles and direct-to-fan distribution. What was once dismissed as niche or experimental is now attracting major platform investment. Moderated by Jarvey, this panel of microdrama creators and executives — including one of the format’s top stars and producers, Kasey Esser, and Dhar Mann Studios’ head of vertical content, Erin McFarlane — examines how format innovation, fandom dynamics and algorithmic discovery are reshaping the economics of scripted storytelling and what traditional studios can learn from these agile models. For sponsorship opportunities, contact Lynne@theankler.com Share
It’s strictly business: the enduring allure of mafiosi in culture
Ryan Gingeras examines how mafias have shaped the modern world, from classical Rome to Las Vegas, and how fictional portrayals influence real gangsters.
What sports can teach us about Houston: Black Houston(s) Symposium returns to Rice
The fourth annual event will take place over March 26-27, bringing scholars, athletes, artists and community members together to examine sports as a social and cultural force.
Best fits for the Top 20 unsigned NFL free agents, ranked
USA TODAY Sports examines the best fits for the top remaining free agents.
Wisconsin Senate passes bills to legalize online sports betting, establish college athlete NIL rules
The Wisconsin Senate on Tuesday passed bills to legalize online sports betting and create rules for college athlete NIL payments.
How Foreign-Trained Health Workers Saved the NHS £14 Billion
This blog is part of a series focused on the UK’s recruitment of foreign-trained health workers. This first blog details the amount of money the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) has saved by recruiting foreign-trained health workers. The second blog examines whether this saving is offset by foreign aid contributions to health systems strengthening (HSS) and human resources for health (HRH) in countries of origin.
How Investors May Respond To Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) Earnings Miss Amid New US$250 Million Buyback
Flutter Entertainment’s latest results showed Q4 revenue of US$4.74 billion, up 24.9% year on year but below analyst forecasts for both revenue and earnings per share. On the same day, the company also launched the fifth tranche of its multi‑year share repurchase program, authorizing Goldman Sachs to buy back up to US$250 million of shares to reduce its share count. We’ll now examine how Flutter’s Q4 earnings miss against analyst expectations reshapes the previously optimistic investment...
The politics of the Iran war
Our weekly podcast on America. This week, we examine how Americans are viewing the conflict
Small-town mom, veteran, college and rural revitalizing family recognized for business innovation
A small-town Nebraska mom, a veteran, a college and a couple bent on rural revitalization were recognized for their innovation efforts.
Bay Bridge Lights set to illuminate SF waterfront
After a three-years hiatus, as of March 20, the Embarcadero will have finally "got its sparkle back."
Rates for most vaccines in children and teens are declining, Wisconsin health officials say
Health officials are urging families to check on their children's immunization records before traveling for spring break.
Stop Playing Politics With Our Children
After 18 years, Stamford Board of Education (BOE) former and current majority party leaders are finally getting a taste of their own medicine…what goes around comes around. There are consequences […]
Week 2 of Iran: Military momentum meets economic and political reality
Two days into the Iran crisis, I assessed 10 key indicators I’d be watching over the coming week. Now entering the second week of the crisis, it’s time to reassess and examine what’s risen or fallen in importance.
What Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)'s Antitrust Trial Over Ticketmaster Dominance Means For Shareholders
The U.S. Department of Justice and 30 states have taken Live Nation Entertainment and Ticketmaster to a jury trial in New York, alleging that they abused their dominance in live music ticketing, promotions, and venue contracts to harm fans, artists, and competitors. Because the case raises the possibility of forced divestiture of Ticketmaster or sweeping changes to venue contracts, it poses material uncertainty for Live Nation’s business model and future industry structure. We’ll now examine...
Is Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Turning Immersive Hits Into a Durable Global Venue Strategy?
In recent months, Sphere Entertainment Co. has attracted heightened attention as strong consumer demand for its The Wizard of Oz show at the Las Vegas Sphere and growing interest in immersive concerts and films have supported improving business fundamentals. At the same time, large investors such as Citigroup have significantly increased their holdings, underscoring institutional interest as Sphere explores additional U.S. and international venue opportunities. We’ll now examine how the...
Former State Sen. Brett Lindstrom, who said he was leaving politics, abandons Republican label
Lindstrom, until late January, was running for the GOP U.S. House nomination in NE-02 and was rumored to weigh bid for governor.