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What chronic inflammation is and how it could affect your health
There is a difference between inflammation from an injury and chronic inflammation. Learn what it is, when it’s helpful and when it can become a long-term health problem.
Meet the Bills ranked in CBS Sports' NFL Top 100
Three Bills landed in the CBS Sports' NFL Top 100, including one of the league’s biggest risers.
John Carmack responds to Id Software layoffs, admits Microsoft stewardship claim aging badly
The Doom and Quake programmer is saddened by this week’s news of layoffs…
Top OpenAI executive Fidji Simo is stepping down
Fidji Simo, a top OpenAI exec, steps down amid a chronic illness. She is shifting to an advisor role after medical leave.
Meet the 14 houseguests joining Big Brother Season 28
CBS revealed the 14 houseguests for Big Brother Season 28, featuring a rocket scientist, MMA fighter, and more.
Indiana librarians to get mental health training
Mental Health America of Indiana will to train librarians in how to respond to mental health crises and direct patrons to resources due to influx of Hoosiers in crisis seeking help from library staff.
Dr Oz links obesity to chronic disease surge, says GLP-1s can 'jumpstart' better health
Dr. Mehmet Oz backs GLP-1 weight loss medication, but stresses that diet and exercise remain essential, calling obesity the top driver of healthcare costs.
LSU and FMOL Health award research grants targeting state’s critical health needs
LSU and FMOL Health | Our Lady of the Lake have awarded more than $1.6 million in research grants to seven teams through the Collaboration in Action Program, or CAP, supporting projects aimed at solving critical health challenges in Louisiana. The funded research focuses on areas including cancer, trauma care, chronic disease, obesity, sports medicine, […]
Tokyo Game Show 2026 unveils exhibitor list, including PlayStation and Square Enix
TGS 2026 will be the show’s first five-day event…
Partnership leads to healthier moms and babies, building stronger families
In six rural counties across Indiana, Indiana University Health nurses works with families to navigate maternal and infant health
Wario Land and three more Game Boy classics hit Nintendo Switch Online today
Plus Japan has received two extra Game Boy Advance games…
Forestry scientists stay upbeat in face of federal turmoil
The Chinese word for crisis isn’t a combination of the symbols for “danger” and “opportunity” as some business strategy books once claimed. But if it did, it could be the
Trump, 80, Puts Chronic Health Issue on Full Display on Overseas Trip
Trump gave a glimpse of his bruised and makeup-slathered hand during the trip.
Commentary: Night shifts are deadly, not just inconvenient
During his 26 years as a night-shift nurse, Ed Collum watched colleagues nod off mid-conversation, battle chronic illnesses and, too often, die young from cancer, stroke or suicide. Collum puts
Nintendo will stop selling the Nintendo Switch in 2027
Sales of the console on the Nintendo Store will conclude in February…
Is testosterone therapy a fix for aging? The Trump administration proposes easing prescription rules
Boosting low levels of the hormone is seen as a possible fix for men’s chronic health problems.
Halo: Campaign Evolved’s boxed version will come with physical discs so that players can ‘have tangible items to add to your collection’
The news comes after two major blows to physical game collectors…
The 8 healthy habits doctors wish more people would bring back
Rates of chronic disease, obesity and stress continue to rise across America. Experts warn that some of the healthiest habits from the nation's earlier centuries may have fallen by the wayside.
Doctors say 8 forgotten habits could help fight stress, obesity and chronic disease
From walking everywhere to eating seasonal foods and sharing community meals, experts say these forgotten American health habits are worth reviving.
Two new food benefits available to Oregon Health Plan members with complex health needs
The Oregon Health Authority has launched new nutrition benefits for Oregon Health Plan members with chronic conditions to help improve food security.
Morocco Return to the World Cup Last Eight
Morocco are going back to the World Cup quarter-finals after defeating Canada in a Round of 16 tie that confirmed their status as one of the most formidable sides in international football outside of Europe and South America. A goal from Amine Ouahbi was enough to separate the teams on Friday in what proved to…
Hideo Kojima ‘really sad’ about PlayStation killing discs, ‘frightened’ for future of ownership
The Death Stranding director has reacted to PlayStation going all-digital…
Business People
Mikel Dashtipour has joined Renal Specialists of Northwest Arkansas, where he provides care for patients with kidney disease, including those with chronic and end-stage kidney disease, electrolyte imbalances, fluid overload and other related conditions, and those receiving dialysis.
Business People
Mikel Dashtipour has joined Renal Specialists of Northwest Arkansas, where he provides care for patients with kidney disease, including those with chronic and end-stage kidney disease, electrolyte imbalances, fluid overload and other related conditions, and those receiving dialysis.
Author, mental health advocate Kendall Concini-Moore creates experiences, not just books
“The Cloudy Day Chronicles” picture book series helps parents navigate tough feelings with their children while providing resources to help the conversation continue.
George Russell Cannot Explain His Silverstone Sprint Pace
George Russell finished fifth in British Grand Prix Sprint Qualifying at Silverstone, just under four tenths of a second behind pole-sitter Lewis Hamilton and behind…
What chronic illness taught me about running a leaner, smarter business
When my health made hustle impossible, I discovered that sustainable growth comes from operational discipline, not founder endurance.
What chronic illness taught me about running a leaner, smarter business
When my health made hustle impossible, I discovered that sustainable growth comes from operational discipline, not founder endurance.
Final Fantasy 7 Revelation DLC leaks via Epic Games Store listing
Final Fantasy 7 Revelation DLC listings have appeared on the Epic Games Store…
Suicide Squad development felt ‘like I wasn’t making games anymore,’ says director
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League director Axel Rydby shares his experience of working on the doomed live-service.
Josh Allen ranked No. 3 as Bills place 3 on CBS Sports' NFL Top 100
Josh Allen ranked as the second-best quarterback in CBS Sports' annual Top 100. Here's where Bills teammates James Cook and Dion Dawkins landed.
Legislative efforts to address chronic absenteeism in New York continue
Chronic absenteeism is defined as a student missing 10% or more of the school year.
Spring Sports Wrap Up 2025: Strong Finishes and Playoff Highlights
Written by Sergio Uriarte. Last Updated July 2, 2026 in CHS Bulldogs. As the spring season draws to a close, our student-athletes wrapped up their respective seasons with grit, sportsmanship, and impressive performances.
Oregon’s top public health official resigns
Oregon’s top public health official is stepping down from her role after two and a half years. Dr. Sejal Hathi, who joined the Oregon Health Authority in January 2024, will leave Aug. 1 to focus on family and personal priorities, the governor’s office announced Thursday. Hathi, who earns $265,488 per year, joined the Oregon Health […]
Amazon Prime’s 12 ‘free’ games for July include critically acclaimed RPG Symphony of War
Amazon Prime subscribers can claim the games to keep via its Luna service…
Opinion | When Scholarly Societies Play at Politics
They are meant to cement scholarly authority. Sometimes, they threaten it instead.
Do over 40% of U.S. children have at least one chronic health condition?
Chronic health issues are common among young people and can range from respiratory illnesses to weight-related and developmental disorders.
‘Am I going back to PS4 days?’ Shuhei Yoshida says Steam Machine is ‘hard to recommend to people’ at its current price
The former SIE president has been sharing his hands-on impressions of Valve’s new hardware…
July’s three PlayStation Plus ‘free’ Essential monthly games include Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3
There are three games available for subscribers to claim this month…
ACCESS Model: behavioral health edition
A new value-based care program for chronic condition management begins July 5. | A new payment model is designed to pay digital health companies based on outcomes in chronic condition management. But where does behavioral health fit? This episode explores that question with SonderMind and Headspace, two companies participating in the model's behavioral health track.
Sony will cease production of discs for new PlayStation games in 2028
New games sold for PlayStation consoles will only be available digitally and won’t be sold on discs effective January 2028, Sony has announced. The move applies to all PlayStation games released from that point on, including those made by Sony and those released by third parties. The PlayStation group calls the change “a natural direction for Sony Interactive Entertainment to adapt to consumer trends as the general preference for digital media significantly outpaces physical discs,” according to a PlayStation blog post reviewed by Game File in advance of its publication. As movies, TV and music have shifted from physical media to an age of downloads and streaming, Sony’s move could speed the demise of physical media in a gaming. The industry has offered consumers games via cartridges, cassettes, floppy discs, CDs, DVDs and Blu-Rays across a 50-year stretch. Sony has been reporting to investors in recent years that PlayStation games have been increasingly purchased as downloads, not as discs. The most recent figures show nearly four in five purchases of full games for PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 5 were purchased digitally in the past year. Stats like that may cause today’s news to carry an air of the inevitable. But Sony’s declaration for 2028 is still likely to produce a shock, as the biggest gaming platform on the planet that uses game discs leaves them behind. Discs going away, but the fate of game boxes is unknown Sony is committing to still selling games in physical retailers even after they drop discs in 2028. Just how those games will be sold—in boxes with codes inside, as cards marked with digital redemption codes—is unclear. Digital games will also continue to be sold in the online PlayStation Store. New games released for PlayStation consoles prior to January 2028 will be unaffected by the policy change, Sony says. That means the PS5 games of 2027, be they a new Madden, a new God of War, a new Call of Duty, a new Sly Cooper (one can dream?), would still potentially be offered on disc. PlayStation 6 implications Sony’s timeline for a transition to a no-disc era will also spin up more speculation about the timing and configuration of Sony’s next-generation console, the probable PlayStation 6. “This pretty much guarantees that PS6 won’t arrive until 2028 at the earliest,” Piers Harding-Rolls, senior games research analyst at Ampere Analysis tells Game File. Harding-Rolls also concludes from today’s news that “the base version of a PS6 will not include a physical media drive,” as Sony looks to keep costs down on the device. Sony itself is saying nothing about the PS6 today: not its timing, nor how it might or might not support internal or external disc drives in order to run disc-based PS4 and PS5 games, should the console be backwards compatible. The many signs this was coming Industry support for games being released on physical media has been waning. As has consumer interest in them. PC games effectively went all-digital years ago, thanks to the popularity of playing games through Steam and other digital storefronts. The Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdowns that kept much of the global population home helped shift shopping patterns toward downloads. Sony’s own data shows PlayStation game downloads being an uncommon consumer choice a decade ago and now becoming the norm. On consoles, physical media has been in such decline that Sony and Microsoft both launched their current gen Xbox Series and PS5 consoles in 2020 with cheaper versions that lacked disc drives. In early 2024, Phil Spencer, then head of Xbox, told me that ““[w]e ship games physically and digitally, and we’re really just following what the customers are doing.” He added that the game industry had become an outlier in still supporting disc-based entertainment, even as movies and TV have bailed on discs in favor of downloads and steaming: “Gaming consoles themselves have kind of become the last consumer electronic device that has a drive. And this is a real issue, just in terms of the number of manufacturers that are actually building drives and the cost associated with those. And when you think about cogs that we’re going to go put in a console—and as you have fewer suppliers and fewer buyers—the cost of the drive does have an impact.” Last year, the Nintendo’s Switch 2, which uses cartridges rather than discs, introduced the concept of game-key cards, which are physical media that contain no game, just a prompt for a download. Even disc-based games aren’t what they once were, now frequently containing just stubs of games rather than the whole thing. The website Does It Play has tested over 3000 games and found that, for example, that the disc version of this year’s hit 007: First Light, only contained the game’s first mission, with the rest needing to be downloaded. Beyond all that, last week brought the news that Grand Theft Auto VI, likely the biggest game launch this decade, will debut for PS5 and Xbox Series without a disc-based version. Today’s big news comes to you for free. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and ensure more of my work is possible, please consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Discs helped define PlayStation However the trends in entertainment may be going, it is still remarkable to see PlayStation ditch discs given their importance in PlayStation history: In the late 1990s, the first PlayStation’s support for games on relatively cheap CD-ROMs instead of traditional game cartridges allowed the upstart console to outmaneuver cartridge-based systems from Nintendo and Sega, as it drove down game prices down in the process. (The cheaper disc format even prompted Final Fantasy VII maker Square to taunt Nintendo in a magazine ad, saying that if the game was “available on cartridge, it’d retail for around $1200.”) PlayStation devices often doubled as machines for watching movies and TV on the latest disc-based formats. In the late 2000s, for example, Sony’s pricy PS3 gained traction as a go-to device for playing then-novel Blu-Ray discs. In 2013, Sony effectively roasted the digital game-sharing restrictions proposed by rival Microsoft for its upcoming Xbox One console by showing how games could be shared for the then-upcoming PS4. In a 21-second clip that has over 20 million views on YouTube, one PlayStation executive simply handed a game box—presumably with disc inside—to another, who said “thanks.” Sony’s possible motivations The PlayStation announcement today cites “consumer preferences” and a shift away from discs among “the broader entertainment industry,” but does not delve into the decision-making process that brought Sony to this point. Sony is not discussing the economics of this move (I asked!), but there are a number of potential factors: Abandoning discs will spare Sony the cost of manufacturing and shipping them, which analysts and industry veterans I spoke to said could account for $1 or so of a game’s retail price. For first-party games, that’s direct savings for Sony, though the amount is limited by the winnowing percentage of people who were even buying the disc-based versions. For third-party games, Sony could pass the savings on to partners or just retain the better profit margin for themselves. As the 2024 comments from Phil Spencer alluded to, leaving discs behind could mean leaving disc-drives behind, allowing Sony to produce consoles more cheaply. Switching to digital-only for games could diminish the risks of copies of new games leaking. It would also seemingly make second-hand sales of used games impossible, pushing more people to buy their own copies of games. These economic benefits for Sony could be boons for the games industry overall, Ampere analyst Piers Harding-Rolls tells Game File. Among other things, it could free publishers and retailers from having to worry about securing an inventory of game discs when trying to sell games, he noted. “If there is a way to streamline the business of games retail, I generally think it’s a good thing for the industry as it removes unnecessary costs,” Harding-Rolls said. “This will help offset pressure on margins from other directions – development and staffing costs for example.” Should the industry shift from game boxes that contain discs to smaller, cheaper game cards, Harding-Rolls said, that reduces pressure on publishers and retailers. “The advantage of everything going digital for the industry is that sales can be tracked much more easily and there is less commercial risk for publishers wanting to continue selling via retail,” he said. The shift to no discs will also likely impact game development timelines, as developers will no longer face the same urgency to have a build ready to submit to PlayStation for the production of a disc, as industry experts noted around GTA VI’s no-disc news last week. Instead, projects may gain weeks of development time, in the event delivery deadlines for platform approval move closer to release date. Preservationists’ likely worries While millions of gamers have shifted to digital, there are still people who associate game discs—and only game discs—with actual ownership of PlayStation games. That portion of the gaming community spoke up last week about wanting to buy a version of GTA VI that they could hold in their hands, could lend to a friend and could potentially pop into a well-preserved PS5 console three decades from now and still see it run. Such gamers didn’t want to worry that they’d merely purchased a digital copy that could lose access to the game if, say, the company behind the game someday turns of the servers that transmit downloadable copies. Digital copies of games are inherently less long-lasting, because consumers aren’t actually buying a game (on a disc), just buying access to the game. The fine print in online gaming shops notes this, as does a recent law that went on the books in California in 2025. That lasw requires game publishers doing business in the state to refrain from words like “sell” when offering digital copies of games, unless they explicitly tell consumers that what’s being sold isn’t the game itself but a potentially revocable license to access it. A Sony spokesperson noted to Game File that “[w]ith all digital content, including games, movies, and music, players are purchasing a personal license for non-commercial use.” Regarding the fears of PlayStation games being lost to time in an all-digital era, the rep also noted that Sony remains “committed to delivering experiences from past generations to the new platforms our players are using.” They noted that PlayStation has used emulation and remasters to keep offering its classic games to modern gamers. It’s true that many consumers have become accustomed to not having physical copies of new music albums or movies, but the relative precariousness of digital copies of games is in fact being highlighted today by…. Sony’s other big announcement: the upcoming closure of the PS3 and PS Vita online stores Sony said today that it will be closing the online marketplaces for its PlayStation 3 console and PS Vita handheld in most countries in July 2027 (sooner elsewhere: August 2026 for the PS3 store Mexico, Honduras and Nicaragua; late 2026 for PS3 in other Latin American countries and the Middle East). “We know this news may be disappointing to PS3 and PS Vita players who hold a special place in their hearts for this generation of gaming,” Sony said in its announcement, saying the move “was not an easy decision for us to make.” Sony said that PS3 and Vita marketplaces “are no longer able” to support modern commerce systems, prompting a “need” to close the shops and focus on more modern PlayStation platform stores. The news may spark some deja vu. Sony announced back in March 2021 that it planned to take the PS3, Vita and PlayStation Portable marketplaces offline that summer. The move would have caused some 2,000 digital-only games to become unavailable for new purchasers, according to a VGC analysis at the time. Fans complained loudly. By April 2021, Sony walked back the PS3 and Vita shop closures, with then PlayStation boss Jim Ryan saying “it’s clear that we made the wrong decision here.” This time around, Sony is giving a longer notice period in most regions. The closure of those stores is still likely to cut off access to new purchases of digital-only PS3 and Vita games. The current PlayStation 5 marketplace sells PS5 and PS4 games, as well as a selection of PS1 and PS2 games. It does not sell PS3 games, because games for that platform can’t run on the system (some are offered via a PlayStation Plus streaming option). Vita games also aren’t sold via PS5. Sony says digitally purchased PS3 and Vita games will be downloadable after the stores’ shutdowns “for the foreseeable future.” Sony’s move contrasts with Microsoft’s Xbox platform, which continues to sell and support games from all four Xbox console generations. But it puts it in line with Nintendo, which disabled purchases in the marketplace for its Wii console (a contemporary of the PS3) in 2019. Nintendo discontinued purchases in the online shop for its 3DS portable (a contemporary of the Vita) in 2023. The big questions about Sony’s 2028 post-disc era Will Microsoft follow suit, ending support for new disc-based games on Xbox platforms and therefore all game consoles, too? Whether Microsoft does or not, will third-parties that can no longer release games on discs for PlayStation, simply ditch the disc options across the board? Given the GTA VI no-disc experiment launching this November, will more game publishers decide to forgo disc-based offerings even in 2027? How will no-disc PS5/6 games be packaged and sold in brick-and-mortar retail stores? What becomes of game sharing in an all-digital era? Will Sony modify its current set-up, which currently allows some sharing of digital games across a pair of consoles, to allow more casual lending? (See for example, Nintendo’s year-old system of letting players lend a digital game to another player in a “family group” for up to 14 days.) Will there be a version of a PS6 with a disc drive? Or will a drive be offered as an add-on? And how will gamers who want to retain access to PS4/PS5 disc-based games react to whichever configurations Sony chooses to offer? What will the final disc-based PlayStation game be?
MMO shooter Cinder City may be the first PC game to recommend 64 GB of RAM
With RAM prices surging to up to $1000 for 64 GB, NC’s latest game is a pricey prospect…
ESA clarifies views on private servers after saying Minecraft servers are ‘illegal’ and ‘considered piracy’
The US trade association says it was referring to private servers…
Recent Research on How Experiencing Racial Discrimination Impacts Health
This brief provides an overview of the relationship between racial discrimination and health and highlights research examining mechanisms underlying health outcomes linked to experiences of racial discrimination, including biological changes, chronic stress, mental health, substance use, pregnancy-related outcomes, and sleep.
The Hound Haus Opens for Business in El Centro
A new business called The Hound Haus, which specializes in canine fitness, opened its doors to the Valley’s two-legged customers.
Kathie Lee Gifford admits she 'wanted to die' after misdiagnosis and multiple surgeries for chronic pain
Kathie Lee Gifford reveals she was misdiagnosed for a year and treated for a spinal issue before doctors discovered her hip had deteriorated to "ash."
“We’re going to regret that decision”: Dbrand cancels its Companion Cube Steam Machine case after Valve demands it
“Being proud of the thing we made did not give us the right to make it”…
US bill requiring paid games to be playable after they shut down has failed to pass a Senate vote
Stop Killing Games says it will try again with “the funding to do this properly”…
New Switch 2 model spotted in the wild with updated screen
It looks like a new version of Switch 2 with an updated LCD screen is rolling out soon…
‘That would be insanity’: Baldur’s Gate 2 lead says he turned down Hasbro’s request to make Baldur’s Gate 4
Baldur’s Gate 2 developers declined a request to make a sequel to Larian’s third entry…
Who should be Faber Builders Girls Athlete of the Spring?
It's time to pick the top athlete from the spring high school season.
Science for Living: How acupuncture is earning its place in modern medicine
UMass Chan researchers discuss the growing evidence behind acupuncture’s role in modern integrative medicine and how it is helping to reduce chronic pain.
Nancy Pelosi, Connie Chan condemn Scott Wiener harassment incidents
Chan and Pelosi did not sign onto a letter condemning the incident captured in a viral video, but spoke out against harassment in statements to the Chronicle.
Alleged Modern Warfare 4 ad uses ‘not on Xbox Game Pass’ as a selling point
This year’s Call of Duty will be the first to skip Game Pass since 2023…
Xbox reportedly pausing new third-party Game Pass deals, developers say
Developers in line for Game Pass deals ‘got the rug pulled from under them’ it’s claimed…
Opinion: Bring back respect in politics
No matter your party or political persuasion, it is undeniable that American politics has taken on a tenor of anger and pessimism. This national mood has made American politics atoxic stew of rage, discontentment and despair. Many Americans don’t feel that the reforms they would like to see in their government are possible. These...
Scientists Discover Ultrasound May Stop Arthritis Before It Starts
A new study suggests low-intensity ultrasound can influence immune cell behavior in ways that may reduce chronic inflammation and encourage tissue repair after joint injury.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
‘People should wait for real data’: Xbox refutes claims that GTA 6 on PS5 is outselling Xbox 8-to-1
Xbox says it’s “had record orders” for the next Grand Theft Auto…
Sony is deleting over 550 purchased movies from PS5 users’ digital libraries
PlayStation says a licensing agreement means users will no longer be able to access some purchased videos…
Star Wars Eclipse in danger of cancelation, claim striking Quantic Dream developers
Workers protested in Paris over proposed layoffs at the Star Wars Eclipse studio…
National Science Foundation finds no violations in Texas A&M research security contract
U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, a Michigan Republican who chairs the House of Representatives' select committee on China, had urged the NSF to pause funding for a project known as SECURE.
NY restaurant inspections: Search health code violations by restaurant
Search New York restaurant inspection reports to see if your favorite local dining spots are meeting safety standards.
Americans keep poisoning themselves with semaglutide, other weight loss drugs
These incidents became much more common after the FDA started approving GLP-1 drugs for chronic weight management in 2021.
Heat can worsen certain health conditions | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
People with chronic diseases may face flare-ups or worsening symptoms during very hot weather, according to experts.
Bungie layoffs revealed to have affected nearly 300 jobs at Destiny 2 maker
Sony said this week it had cut nearly the entire Destiny 2 development team…
Amazon Brazil GTA 6 description mentions unannounced features
New Grand Theft Auto 6 details are seemingly leaked by an Amazon Brazil product description.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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