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Declan Doyle raves about Lamar Jackson's arm talent
Ravens offensive coordinator Declan Doyle praises Lamar Jackson as the twitchiest athlete he has ever seen.
Free Community Health, Resource Fair coming to Baltimore this summer
A freeCommunity Health & Resource Fair hosted by Jack and Jill of America, Incorporated, is coming to Baltimore on July 25.As part of their 47th National Conve
Baltimore Colts legend Raymond Berry has passed away
Berry, a Hall of Fame wide receiver has passed away at the age of 93
More than profit: Baltimore entrepreneurs blend business with community service
Black entrepreneurs in Baltimore are using their businesses as vehicles for community impact, offering resources that extend far beyond their products and services. From literacy initiatives and youth programs to mutual aid and criminal justice advocacy, local business owners are investing directly in the people and neighborhoods around them.
The Baltimore City Chamber of Commerce prepares for its "State of Baltimore" Business Summit
The Baltimore City Chamber of Commerce prepares for its "State of Baltimore" Business Summit
College pipeline rankings: Which schools produce the most Ravens players?
Clemson and Penn State lead the Ravens' college pipeline rankings, while Georgia, Alabama and Notre Dame also stand out.
Which Ravens’ rookies are in the best mentoring spots?
For rookies, having veteran mentors to lean on for guidance and assistance in their first year is crucial to their early development. The Baltimore Ravens have developed a reputation for drafting well and putting young players in positions to succeed, which can in part be attributable to often having great mentors throughout the roster. Looking […]
Trevor Rogers Explains Late Inning Collapse After Encouraging Outing
Baltimore's left-hander reached the seventh for the first time since Opening Day.
Calais Campbell's one-year deal named Ravens' best offseason move
A national NFL writer believes the Ravens found value by bringing Calais Campbell back on a one-year deal.
Lamar Jackson reveals his favorite new Ravens look
Lamar Jackson reveals his favorite among the new Ravens uniforms after the team unveiled their updated look.
Armstrong Williams: How Trump changed campaigning, media and the politics of trust
Opinion: Donald Trump’s most enduring legacy may be in how he transformed campaign and political communication, writes Armstrong Williams.
Too much money in politics
Reader commentary: Texas U.S. Senate race demonstrates the peril of big money in elections.
Ravens and CareFirst offer a $50,000 grant for health
The Baltimore Ravens and CareFirst are offering a 50000 grant to a Maryland nonprofit for mental health support.
View from the Other Side: Tyler Young from Camden Chat
The Baltimore Orioles went into the 2026 offseason with a purpose, making significant moves like signing slugger Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, and Leody Taveras and dipping into their deep farm system to trade for Taylor Ward, Andrew Kittredge and Shane Baz. Between those moves and the graduation of top prospects like Sam Basallo, many considered […]
Even in deep-blue Baltimore, the nonpartisan school board race can’t escape politics
A question about LGBTQIA+ students separated one candidate from the pack.
Maryland Health Department announces first heat-related death of 2026
State health officials warn residents to take precautions with more hot weather expected Maryland has recorded its first heat-related death of 2026.The Maryland
Artists drop out of DC Freedom 250 festival over reported political ties
WBFF Fox45 provides local news, weather forecasts, traffic updates, notices of events and items of interest in the community, sports and entertainment programming for Baltimore and nearby towns and communities in Maryland, including Annapolis, Crofton, Glen Burnie, Linthicum, Pasadena, Severn, Cockeysville, Dundalk, Essex, Parkville, Owings Mills, Towson, White Marsh, Woodlawn, Hampstead, Sykesville, Taneytown, Westminster, Elkton, Perryville, Pt. Deposit, Rising Sun, Aberdeen, Abingdon, Bel Air, Edgewood, Fallston, Havre De Grace, Columbia, Elkridge, Ellicott City, Fulton, and Ocean City.
Early preview of the Ravens’ most competitive positional battles
The Baltimore Ravens made plenty of notable additions to their roster through free agency and the draft this offseason. While the potential still exists for them to make more signings this summer, their full crop of players is largely set as OTAs continue and training camp is on the horizon. As usual, there will be […]
The rare Ebola outbreak is one danger. Attacks on healthcare workers are another
By JUSTIN KABUMBA and OPE ADETAYO BUNIA, Congo (AP) — Every time Vanny Birungi, a volunteer with the Red Cross in eastern Congo, goes out to raise awareness about the latest Ebola outbreak as suspected cases near 1,000, she faces a…
Ranking the quarterbacks on the Ravens schedule in 2026
Baltimore faces one of the NFL's toughest quarterback schedules in 2026, with Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert leading the challenge.
Tigers place reliever Brant Hurter on 15-day injured list
The Detroit Tigers placed left-handed reliever Brant Hurter on the 15-day injured list with lumbar spine inflammation. The team announced the move, which was retroactive to May 23, prior to Sunday's split doubleheader against the Baltimore Orioles. Hurter left Friday night's game against the Orioles in the fifth inning after a pitch to Tyler O'Neill.
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles - Live Score
View the Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles game played on May 24, 2026. Box score, stats, play-by-play timeline, highlights, odds & more
Class of 2026: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Honors 1,163 New Graduates | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Baltimore City Commissioner of Health Michelle Taylor joined Dean Keshia Pollack Porter, students, and faculty at the convocation ceremony.
Anxiety and anger: New report explores mental health struggles of boys and young men
A new report from The Jed Foundation (JED) examines the mental health challenges facing boys and young men.
Fells Point bar owner warns vacant storefronts signal strain on Maryland businesses
Sitting inside Max’s Taphouse in Fells Point, owner Gail Furman discusses the stretch of vacant spaces near one of Baltimore’s most recognizable bars.
Americans split on religion's influence, but most reject politics from the pulpit
Most Americans don't want to hear about politics from the pulpit at their local church, according to a new report from the Pew Research Center.
1 Key Offensive Area Baltimore Orioles Must Improve In
The Orioles have a clear flaw that's holding them back.
Where to watch Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals: TV channel, start time, streaming for May 16
Here's how to watch Saturday's Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles game, including start times, TV channels, scores and how to stream.
Baltimore businesses count on Anderson Festival as Preakness 2026 kicks off in Laurel
Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Game Thread
Follow along as the Nats and the O’s kick off this years edition of the Battle of the Beltway
Revisiting the Blaze Alexander Trade Way Too Early
Introduction On February 5th, 2026 Arizona Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen sent fan favorite infielder Blaze Alexander to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for relief pitcher Kade Strowd, along with two minor league prospects, RHP Wellington Aracena and infielder Jose Mejia. It definitely hasn’t been long enough to evaluate this trade fairly, and won’t be for […]
People of UW: Association for Women in Sports Media President Rachel Cohen builds community, advocates for women
Please introduce yourself (hometown, year, major, role(s)) My name is Rachel Cohen. I am a senior studying journalism and mass communication and getting my certificates in sports communications and digital studies. I’m from Sykesville, Maryland which is a small town suburb of Baltimore. At Wisconsin I do in-game hosting for Wisconsin volleyball and sideline reporting...
No charges for Baltimore Police officer in deadly shooting of knife-wielding woman during mental health call
Accounts in Transit: Rosen Group Picks Up Kustom Entertainment
Rosen Group to bolster media visibility of Kustom Entertainment, a live event production and ticketing technology company....LDPR lands AOR duties for Windjammer Landing Resort & Residences, a Caribbean resort set along the shores of Labrelotte Bay in St. Lucia....Vitamin, a Baltimore-based shop, picks up The Mood Center, a mental health practice specializing in neurotherapy treatments for depression and related conditions.
Browns HC Todd Monken Compares KC Concepcion to Ravens' Zay Flowers
New Cleveland Browns coach Todd Monken coached Zay Flowers in Baltimore.
Where to watch New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: TV channel, start time, streaming for
Here's how to watch Wednesday's Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees game, including start times, TV channels, scores and how to stream.
Big-Inning Bombers bounce back to beat Birds in Baltimore
The tedious four-game losing streak is over.
Small business owners 'increasingly pessimistic,' squeezed by higher costs, labor concerns
Small business optimism was flat last month, with an index that measures its level stuck below its long-term average for the second month in a row, the NFIB showed.
Scientists discover a weak spot shared by polio and common cold viruses
Scientists at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, have uncovered a crucial trick used by enteroviruses—the group behind diseases like polio, myocarditis, encephalitis, and even the common cold—to reproduce inside human cells. The team captured, in unprecedented detail, how viral RNA recruits both viral and human proteins to assemble the machinery needed for replication, acting almost like a molecular “on-off switch” that controls whether the virus copies itself or makes proteins.
New York Giants: Answering Biggest Offseason Questions
How important is it for John Harbaugh to fix the culture? The Giants are 55-109 over the last 10 years — only the lowly New York Jets are worse over that period. Enter Harbaugh, who has a Super Bowl win of his own after 18 years as the Baltimore Ravens head coach.
Baltimore City Council passes bill restricting where smoke shops can do business
Orioles head groundskeeper Nicole Sherry leaving after 20 years
Orioles head groundskeeper Nicole Sherry is leaving after 20 years at Camden Yards, the team confirmed on Monday. When she took the job in Baltimore, Sherry became the second female head groundskeeper for a major league team. Since assuming the role, Sherry kept the field at Camden Yards in pristine condition.
Maternal health program coming to Maryland as some raise previous budget cut questions
A new, cash assistance program for moms is coming to Maryland aiming to boost low-income families in coordination with other supports offered in the state.While
Baltimore therapists help break stigma around Black men's mental health
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Weathers vs. Brandon Young
A new series kicks off in Baltimore as the Yanks look to shake off a weekend sweep.
Maryland health officials monitor two residents after possible hantavirus exposure
**Maryland Health Officials Monitor Two Residents After Possible Hantavirus Exposure****Baltimore, Md. (May 11, 2026)** — The Maryland Department of Health is m
Ravens GM recalls early days working beside Ozzie Newsome
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta reflects on his humble beginnings, starting in a tiny scouting department nearly 30 years ago.
Eric DeCosta details emotional NFL Draft phone calls
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta describes the 'special feeling' of calling NFL Draft picks and hearing their families erupt.
Eric DeCosta says Lamar Jackson elevated the Ravens' coaching vacancy
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta says Lamar Jackson made the team's coaching opening one of the NFL's most attractive jobs.
Mental Health Awareness Month: Combatting stigma with NAMI Metropolitan Baltimore
NAMI Metropolitan Baltimore serves people living with mental health conditions, providing them with peer-based support networks and care.
Steelers linked to former Ravens Pro Bowl edge rusher
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been named a potential landing spot for ex-Baltimore Ravens edge rusher Kyle Van Noy.
11 TV Hill: Making Baltimore an entertainment destination
Big-name artists like Barry Manilow, Olivia Dean and J. Cole are coming to CFG Bank Arena this year, highlighting a push to bring major acts to Baltimore.
The unfinished business of Sonia Hayes and Mildred Frisby
Maryland Sen. Antonio Hayes reflects on the enduring influence of his mother, Sonia Hayes, and grandmother, Mildred Frisby, in a heartfelt Mother’s Day commentary about resilience, sacrifice and public service. Drawing from his upbringing in West Baltimore’s Penn North community, Hayes connects his legislative work to the struggles and hopes of the women who shaped his life and inspired his commitment to improving Baltimore neighborhoods.
Virginia Tech football: Baltimore S Elijah Butler commits to Hokies
The Hokies land St. Frances (Baltimore) safety Elijah Butler over Florida and Auburn.
Baltimore harbor's water health is on the decline, new report shows
Chief Justice Roberts: Supreme Court not political; decisions are based on law
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts avoided mentioning any specific rulings at a conference this week in Hershey, Pennsylvania, but stressed that the court is “simply not part of the political process.” He said the court’s formal, writ…
Baltimore Ravens Join Green Sports Alliance
Ravens enhance environmental sustainability efforts through expanded network, resources and industry collaboration.
Erin Andrews reacts to Baltimore Ravens’ offseason gesture
NFL on FOX reporter Erin Andrews recently celebrated her 48th birthday, and one of the gifts she received was a cool merchandise set from the Baltimore Ravens. In one of her most recent Instagram stories, Andrews posted a picture of…
Maryland health officials launch tickborne disease prevention campaign
As warmer weather brings more Marylanders outdoors, the Maryland Department of Health (DOH) is urging residents to take precautions to prevent tick bites and ti
Todd Heap praises Ja'Kobi Lane's work ethic, talent
Baltimore drafted Ja'kobi Lane, a player known for his work ethic and coachability, which Todd Heap says sets him apart.
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: Series Preview
The Yankees host an AL East opponent for the first time this season following a day off.
Baltimore looks to replace outdated CAD system after man's police custody death
Baltimore City officials are moving to replace the outdated Computer-Aided Dispatch system, which failed during a mental health crisis last summer.
Roundtable reactions to the Ravens reuniting with Calais Campbell
Baltimore Beatdown’s staff reacts to the Ravens’ reunion with Calais Campbell.
Orioles could explore 'dramatic pivot' with Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman
Baltimore needs brighter days ahead to avoid this scenario.
Ravens' best remaining free-agent options at the center position
The Ravens may still need to find their offensive line's anchor, and if they turn to free agency, there aren't many options still available.
Eric DeCosta details Ravens' response to Maxx Crosby setback
Jesse Minter reveals how the Baltimore Ravens navigate adversity and tough decisions, emphasizing adaptation and moving forward.
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles - Live Score
View the Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles game played on April 30, 2026. Box score, stats, play-by-play timeline, highlights, odds & more
3 measles cases confirmed by Maryland health officials in April
Maryland is reporting its second and third measles cases of 2026, both of them Baltimore-area residents who had recently traveled out of state.
49ers updated draft picks after trade back with Baltimore Ravens
The San Francisco 49ers traded again in the 2026 NFL draft.
It's Official: Girls' Flag Football is a sanctioned sports for Maryland high schools
Maryland is adding another championship sports to high schools. The Maryland Public Secondary Schools Athletic Association (MPSSAA) officially sanctioned girls'
Baltimore clothier who started business in vehicle is opening new storefront
A Baltimore clothier known for dressing some of the city's most stylish men is opening a new storefront for his brand Downtown.
Baltimore City Commissioner of Health Michelle Taylor to Speak at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health’s Class of 2026 Convocation | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Ceremony will recognize the value of the practice of public health at the local, state, and global level.
Where to watch Baltimore Orioles vs Kansas City Royals: TV channel, start time, streaming for Apr. 22
Here's how to watch Wednesday's Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles game, including start times, TV channels, scores and how to stream.
Cornerback could be Ravens’ wildcard pick in Round 1
The Baltimore Ravens could pivot to cornerback in Round 1 if value aligns, adding depth and future flexibility in the secondary.
Who will the Baltimore Ravens draft? WJZ's Sports Team predicts their first-round pick.
State health officials announce 2026’s first confirmed case of measles in Maryland
Maryland health officials warn that a Baltimore-area resident was confirmed to have measles after traveling internationally, marking the first measles outbreak of the year.
Health officials confirm measles case was found in Maryland
A case of measles has been confirmed in a Baltimore area resident who recently traveled internationally.
Measles case confirmed in Baltimore after international travel, health officials report
One case of measles has been confirmed in the Baltimore metro area from a resident who traveled internationally, according to the Maryland Department of Health.
Measles case confirmed in Baltimore after international travel, health officials report
One case of measles has been confirmed in the Baltimore metro area from a resident who traveled internationally, according to the Maryland Department of Health.
White House spotlights tax perks for small businesses
Restaurant co-owner Tony Minadakis explains how President Donald Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' tax perks, including no tax on tips for hospitality workers, directly help his Baltimore-based business and employees.
Inside USS Torsk, last US submarine to sink enemy ship until Iran War
The USS Torsk, a historic submarine that's now a museum in Baltimore, was the last US Navy submarine to sink an enemy ship until Operation Epic Fury.
Eric DeCosta credits coordinator input in Ravens draft success
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta says strong alignment between personnel and coaching staff is key to the team's success.
Millions risk health coverage as they skip paying higher Obamacare premiums
A new report showed about 14% of Affordable Care Act enrollees didn't pay their premiums in January, signaling that millions more could be losing health coverage in the coming months.
Two scientists to receive 2026 Ralph L. Sacco Scholarships for Brain Health
DALLAS and MINNEAPOLIS, April 17, 2026 — The American Academy of Neurology and the American Heart Association have awarded the 2026 Ralph L. Sacco Scholarships for Brain Health to two neuroscientists, Sarah Kettlety, Ph.D., of Baltimore, Maryland, and...
Shhh! A new Fells Point lounge wants to be Baltimore’s best-kept secret.
In Baltimore, a city more known for its bars and watering holes than nightclubs, Wonderland wants to draw a crowd that relishes dressing up and letting loose to dance music.
Baltimore health system leader to receive 2026 AHA Justin Ford Kimball Innovators Award
The AHA today announced that it will present Harsh K. Trivedi, M.D., president and CEO of Sheppard Pratt health system in Baltimore, with the 2026 Justin Ford Kimball Innovators Award during a ceremony April 20 at the AHA Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, D.C.
Lead paint falling from Baltimore-area bridges raises health concerns
Zay Flowers says inconsistency doomed Ravens in 2025 season
Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers says 'inconsistency' due to injuries and uneven play led to the team's 2025 disappointment.
Bleacher Report Lists Diamondbacks Top 5 in MLB Power Rankings
BALTIMORE – The No. 4 spot in Bleacher Report’s latest power rankings says as much about identity as it performs.
City Council President Zeke Cohen lost his mother, but her influence lives in his politics
Joan Berzoff, a social work professor and the mother of Baltimore City Council President Zeke Cohen, died last week at age 76.
Miles Across MedStar Health 200-Mile Run Launches In Southern Maryland, Spans DC To Baltimore
A 200-mile Miles Across MedStar run launched from MedStar St. Mary’s Hospital in Leonardtown, promoting movement, wellness and chronic disease prevention across Southern Maryland, DC and Baltimore.
The Future Of Health And Nutrition In America
Lifestyle contributor Kari Hawker Diaz returns with balance of nature to discuss the future of health and nutrition in America, and share simple habits and stra
Kyle Hamilton praises Mike Mickens' technique and coaching style
Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton praises new DB coach Mike Mickens' 'rare' technique-oriented style, recalling their Notre Dame days.
Mark Andrews calls new Ravens OC Declan Doyle 'dynamic'
Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews describes new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle as 'dynamic' and a great teacher.
Ravens Scott Elliott praises Trey Hendrickson's 'elite' work ethic
Ravens Director of Strength & Conditioning Scott Elliott praised newly signed linebacker Trey Hendrickson's 'elite' physical makeup and work ethic.
Where to watch San Francisco Giants vs Baltimore Orioles: TV channel, start time, streaming for Apr. 12
Here's how to watch Sunday's Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants game, including start times, TV channels, scores and how to stream.
Ravens add Dr. Nic Gill for outside perspective on sports performance
The Baltimore Ravens hired Dr. Nic Gill as VP of Health & Performance, bringing an 'outside perspective' to the team.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.