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iPhone Fold Production Pushed Back, But Fall 2026 Launch Still on Track
Production on the iPhone Fold is behind schedule, but the device is still slated to launch in fall 2026, reports DigiTimes. The site says that production has been pushed back by "roughly one to two months," but Apple has not communicated any launch delays to suppliers. Apple is still planning for a 2026 launch, which suggests a tighter production schedule. Apple planned to begin iPhone Fold mass production in June 2026, but mass production has now slipped to early August.
Antiseptic-tolerant germs spread through the air in hospitals, early study hints
Trace amounts of antiseptic chemicals in hospital rooms may be driving tolerance and resistance in bacteria, a study finds.
Snowmass Mountain reopened for National Disabled Veterans Winter Sports Clinic
Participants of the 40th annual National Disabled Veteran Winter Sports Clinic were able to experience Snowmass last week despite the mountain having closed early for the season Sunday, April 5.
Construction wraps on California Science Center's building that will house Space Shuttle Endeavour
Mission nearly complete. The California Science Center says construction is finally finished on a building that will house Space Shuttle Endeavour.
How California Can Improve Access to Mental Health Services | Pomona College in Claremont, California
Professor Sara Masland examines existing barriers to accessing mental health services, the risks associated with using AI as a therapist and the importance of early intervention in the state’s new Mental Health for All initiative.
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals early onset Parkinson’s diagnosis
The announcement comes just one month before the band is set to reunite for a residency at The Sphere in Las Vegas beginning May 6.
How to spot and help someone in a mental health crisis
Experts wish more people spotted the signs earlier: feeling overwhelmed, not feeling “like yourself,” shifts in sleep, behavior and mood.
NYC Mayor Mamdani touts ‘pothole politics’ wins in first 100 days in shift of focus from campaign
Mayor Zohran Mamdani touted his administration’s early wins at a campaign style rally in Queens Sunday to mark his first 100 days in office.
MLB Power Rankings: Let the turnarounds begin? Which teams have already exorcised their early season demons
In the long slog that is a 162-game season, early results can mean nothing -- or everything
After shedding legacy units, Kustom cuts annual loss by nearly $12M
Revenue from continuing operations reached $13.8M as stockholders' equity rose $11.4M; stronger working capital backs Kustom's entertainment-only pivot.
Gray whales are entering San Francisco Bay and many aren’t surviving
Gray whales are beginning to break their long-established migration patterns, venturing into risky new territory like San Francisco Bay as climate change disrupts their Arctic food supply. But this unexpected detour is proving deadly: nearly one in five whales that enter the Bay don’t survive, with many struck by ships in the crowded, foggy waters.
PBR | 2026 PBR World Finals: Unleash the Beast to bring nearly two weeks of Western-themed entertainment to Fort Worth from May 7–17
Celebration features live music, fan experiences, cultural events and the richest purse in bull riding.
Early voting begins this week. What positions are on the ballot?
Shelby County will effectively have a new set of elected officials after the election; many current representatives are term-limited or seeking other offices.
On the job with Jessika Varner, business manager/community engagement coordinator at Horizon Science Academy of Lorain
Jessika Varner, business manager and community engagement coordinator at the Horizon Science Academy in Lorain, said she started working for a school system in her early 20s. Varner worked for the Concept Schools location in…
Scientists Revise Timeline For End Of The Universe, And It's Earlier Than Previously Estimated
The study is based on Hawking radiation introduced by Stephen Hawking.
'It's incredible, like science fiction': How a new wave of immunotherapy is eliminating cancers
After nearly 100 years of development, treatments that bolster the body's immune system to fight cancer are coming of age – and saving patient's lives.
The ‘Wild West’ of peptides is booming. Here’s what’s real, what’s risky and what’s next
In the early 2020s, interest in GLP-1 weight loss drugs exploded. Now, as we move deeper into the decade, a new buzzword is taking over: peptides.
Watch: As AI Makes More Health Coverage Decisions, The Risks To Patients Grow
This year, executives from nearly every major health insurance company made the same declaration in calls with Wall Street analysts: Using artificial intelligence to make coverage decisions would help save them money.
Health scores: See which downtown Augusta restaurant nearly failed
A downtown Augusta restaurant barely squeaked by with a 70 health score. Find out why.
Britney Spears posts racy dance video before voluntarily entering rehab
On the heels of a DUI arrest in Ventura County early last month, pop icon Britney Spears voluntarily checked herself into rehab over the weekend, but not before donning a sheer bodysuit and showing…
JAXA's 22-Year Bet on Frozen Comet Samples: What a Multi-Decade Mission Timeline Means for Planetary Science Funding
In the world of planetary science, a decade-long mission is considered ambitious. JAXA, Japan’s space agency, is now weighing something far more audacious: a sample return mission that wouldn’t deliver its cargo until the late 2040s, more than 22 years from the earliest planning stages. The proposed Next Generation Small-Body Return (NGSR) mission to comet […]
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States.
Business owners react after Uptown burglaries as NOPD searches for suspect
Police said the same suspect is believed to be responsible for all three break-ins, which happened early Sunday morning.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Oregon gets $200M to improve rural health care access
Oregon will receive nearly $200 million in federal funding this year to improve rural health care, with specific allocations for hospitals, clinics and public health, with additional project funding to
Get a Pokémon TCG: <em>Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising</em> Build & Battle Box Early
Open booster packs from a Mega Evolution—Chaos Rising Build & Battle Box at a Prerelease event near you.
Black hole wakes after 100 million years and erupts like a cosmic volcano
A colossal “cosmic volcano” has erupted in deep space, as a supermassive black hole in galaxy J1007+3540 roars back to life after nearly 100 million years of silence. Astronomers captured stunning radio images showing fresh jets blasting outward while crashing into the intense pressure of a surrounding galaxy cluster, creating a chaotic, distorted structure stretching nearly a million light-years.
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals early-onset Parkinson's disease diagnosis
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals that he's been diagnosed with Parkinson's, one month before the band is set to reunite for their Las Vegas residency at the Sphere.
Nearly 7K compete in Covenant Health Knoxville Marathon weekend, marking largest turnout in over 20 years
Former Xbox Exec Says Developers Didn't Want a Sony Monopoly
Former Xbox executive Ed Fries comments on the early days of Xbox, the opinion of Japanese game companies, and more.
Brewers lose Christian Yelich to hamstring injury vs. Nationals
Christian Yelich was off to a strong start at the plate this season before leaving Sunday's game early.
Apple reportedly testing out four different styles for its smart glasses that will rival Meta Ray-Bans
Apple's smart glasses could be announced as early as this year, followed by a product release in 2027.
Hungarian opposition party set to oust Orbán with half of votes counted
The final result will be known early Monday morning.
I chased pro bowling while working fast food. It paid off.
Kyle Troup went from working at Wendy's to earning nearly $500,000 in a record-breaking bowling season and building financial security.
Early results in Hungary's election show opposition party leading and Prime Minister Orbán's trailing
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
Many La Jolla students win big at regional science fair
Nearly 30 kids attending local schools win first-place awards and five are named Grand Award winners or runners-up
Oldsmobile Almost Became Muscle Car Tyrants With A 32-Valve 455 V8
Oldsmobile almost stood above every other muscle car brand with a 32-valve 455 V8, which could have been the most powerful muscle car engine of the early 1970s.
Illinois Court Hears Final Lawsuit Challenging Marijuana Social Equity Business Licensing Lottery
“We just want a fair shot. We’re not asking for anything special, no special privileges, but what they promised from the very beginning.” By Hannah Meisel, Capitol News Illinois Nearly seven years after Illinois lawmakers approved recreational cannabis legalization, applicants who lost out on coveted business licenses are still battling the state in court, alleging […]
GSK sees blockbuster potential in targeted cancer therapy after promising early data
British drugmaker GSK's experimental targeted cancer drug Mo-rez has blockbuster potential, its head of oncology research has told reporters, after early data showed the drug helped shrink tumors in patients with advanced, hard-to-treat cancers.
Green Powered Challenge: Solar Powered Pi Hosts Websites In RAM
If you started with computers early enough, you’ll remember the importance of the RAMdisk concept: without a hard drive and with floppies slow and swapping constantly, everything had to live …
Jesuit-Rummel winner clinches district title as fast-working pitcher overcomes early struggles
After each pitch, Maes Martin quickly took the return throw from the catcher and stepped back onto the rubber.
A slowdown in federal science grants has Vermont researchers worried
Though leaders at the National Institutes of Health say they intend to allocate all the federally assigned dollars, changes in how they do so is disrupting the research of early career scientists.
Early data promising on RI's evolving behavioral health model
Rhode Island's certified community behavioral health clinics are showing promising results, increasing access and improving outcomes, the author says.
How to keep your brain sharp and avoid overreliance on AI
A Workday report revealed that nearly half of workers are concerned about AI agents eroding their critical thinking skills.
Maria Elvira Salazar raises nearly $1M in three months as she gears up for re-election
The South Florida Republican is running for a fourth term in a battleground district.
Marlins-Tigers finale features Cy Young Award matchup
The Detroit Tigers are hoping the third time's the charm early in the season.
Sooo ... About Last Night
Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]
Pacoima business owners say Montague Street conditions are driving customers away
Montague Street in Pacoima has become nearly impossible to ignore. Trash, abandoned furniture, and human waste line parts of the sidewalk and street, creating conditions that business owners say ar…
Reform’s Startup Culture Raises Risks Ahead of Local Elections
Earlier this year, as Reform UK official Shaun Wilkinson was shortlisting candidates for May’s local elections, he watched in astonishment as a superior remotely replaced one pick in the shared spreadsheet with a recent Conservative defector who he’d rejected.
Michigan’s strong third inning helps secure win over MSU
EAST LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) – Michigan State’s late comeback fell short against rival Michigan, as the Wolverines came away with the 6-4 win. The win on Saturday was the Wolverines’ fifth straight. Nick Williams hit an RBI single to right field in the second inning, allowing Ryan McKay to score and give MSU an early 1-0 […]
How aggressive breast cancer turns off the immune system
Researchers are launching a new project to crack the mystery of aggressive breast cancer, where predicting disease progression remains a major hurdle. By studying how tumors interact with and suppress the immune system, scientists aim to identify new biomarkers that reveal how the cancer evolves. Using real patient samples, the team hopes to turn earlier discoveries into practical clinical tools. The goal: more precise, personalized treatments that can outsmart even the most dangerous tumors.
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
The Universe is expanding too fast and scientists still can’t explain it
A major international effort has produced an ultra-precise measurement of the Universe’s expansion rate, confirming it’s faster than early-Universe models predict. By linking multiple distance-measuring techniques, scientists ruled out simple errors as the cause of the discrepancy. The persistent “Hubble tension” now looks more real than ever. It could mean our current model of the cosmos is incomplete.
Assessing Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) Valuation After A Steep Year To Date Share Price Slide
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) has been drawing attention after a steep share price slide in the past 3 months, with the stock down about 53% year to date at a recent price of US$102.38. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. The recent 90 day share price return of 52.45% and 1 year total shareholder return of 55.83% both sit sharply in negative territory, suggesting momentum has been fading rather than building despite earlier gains in recent years. If this kind of reset has...
Nearly 100 Colorado businesses have left or scaled back operations since 2019, report finds
A new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation suggests the state’s weakening competitiveness is driving businesses out of state. Companies are blaming factors like increasing regulations and cost of living for why they’re choosing to...
April 16 Vallejo-Vacaville Arts/Entertainment Source: Activities
April 16: The Drifting Cowboys, 6:30 p.m., Empress Marquee Club, 324 Virginia St., Vallejo. April 17: Rise Vallejo Ribbon Cutting Ceremony and Family Carnival, 11 a.m., Rise Vallejo Early Learning Center, 1450 Coronel Ave.,…
Gulfstream's Skyward event draws global business aviation leaders to Savannah
Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. recently hosted nearly 2,000 attendees from over 30 countries at Skyward, its newly reimagined customer event in Savannah. The three-day conference served as a pivotal gathering to discuss the evolving landscape of business aviation.
Rhode Island Marijuana Business License Lottery Blocked By Federal Judge Amid Challenge To Residency Rules
“Knowing the Act was facing legal challenges…CCC continued forward with its plan to implement the Act and its licensing scheme. The resulting fall-out will be, to be blunt, self-inflicted.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Currant Nearly 100 applicants vying for 20 new cannabis retail licenses that were supposed to be awarded via lottery as soon […]
$10,000 bounty on the implementation of rollback netcode for Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 placed by Maximilian Dood
It's been nearly 15 years since Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 was released on November 15, 2011. Funnily enough, Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 was released about nine months after Marvel vs. Capcom 3 (February 15, 2011), which spawned ...
Scientists Baffled by Bizarre “Living Fossil” From 275 Million Years Ago
Tanyka amnicola is a newly identified ancient tetrapod known from unusual twisted jawbones adapted for grinding plants. This rare herbivorous “living fossil” helps scientists better understand early evolution and ecosystems in Gondwana. In a dry riverbed in Brazil, deep within a forest near the A
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Jay Collins raises nearly $1.75 million in first quarter as active candidate, with big Ron DeSantis donor giving more than half
The Green Beret may not be getting enough green to be viable down the stretch.
Fast ‘Crimson Desert’ Patch Adds New Moves, Shield Hiding And One Great Feature
There is yet another big Crimson Desert patch live from Pearl Abyss, not even a day after they announced a longer roadmap featuring some of these changes.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Your nose could detect Alzheimer’s years before symptoms begin
Losing your sense of smell might signal Alzheimer’s far earlier than expected. Scientists found that immune cells in the brain actively destroy smell-related nerve fibers after detecting abnormal signals on their surfaces. This damage begins in early stages of the disease, well before cognitive decline. The discovery could help identify at-risk patients sooner and improve treatment timing.
Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
Putting on weight earlier in life may be more dangerous than previously thought. Researchers found that early adulthood obesity significantly raises the risk of premature death, especially from major diseases like heart disease and diabetes. The longer the body carries excess weight, the greater the damage appears to be. Interestingly, cancer risk in women didn’t follow this pattern, suggesting other biological factors are at play.
Two simple eating habits linked to lower weight, study finds
A major study suggests that when you eat could play a key role in staying lean. People who fast longer overnight and start their day with an early breakfast were more likely to have a lower BMI years later. Scientists think this is because eating earlier aligns better with the body’s internal clock. But skipping breakfast as part of intermittent fasting didn’t offer the same advantage—and may even be tied to unhealthy habits.
Texas House committee slaps Democrats with nearly $422K in penalties for 2025 quorum break
The Committee on House Administration voted along party lines to fine 50-plus Democratic members more than $8,000 apiece for fleeing the state to try to block a GOP-led congressional redistricting plan.
New Crimson Desert Patch Just Dropped With Many of the Improvements Pearl Abyss Said Were Due in the Coming Months, and Some It Hadn't Mentioned at All
Just a day after Pearl Abyss’ announcement of the various improvements it said were coming soon to Crimson Desert, we have a new patch that adds many of them already — and even a few changes fans hadn't expected.
Rachael Rollins claps back at rivals over her Suffolk DA bid
Rollins took out papers earlier this week, signaling her intention to run to regain her old job as Suffolk district attorney.
Kamala Harris' early 2028 advantage: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Cuba's president takes a defiant stance in the face of Trump’s threats.
Galas honoring political strategist and scholar Bob Shrum raise nearly $1 million for USC Dornsife center
The events featured appearances by John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, Reince Priebus and other prominent figures.
Nevada reports 8,099 new business registrations in March, nearly $21M in revenue
Nevada saw a jump in new business activity in March, with 8,099 new business registrations filed statewide, according to Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar.Ag
Mamdani hits 100 days as mayor of New York City
As Mamdani, a Democrat, marks an early milestone in his mayoralty, it remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to leverage his fame into achieving the progressive policy proposals that propelled him to office.
Pokemon Center Announces Early Access Program for Preordering! -...
The Pokemon Center has announced a new early access program through an update to its FAQ. Customers subscribed to the Pokemon Center newsletter and
Spring Mountain Treatment Center launches program to support moms’ mental health
Pregnancy and the early years of motherhood can be an emotional time, but for some women it can also bring serious mental health challenges. Spring Mountain Tre
Proactive business decisions are improving local cancer care
Two of the region’s leading cancer organizations—Mary Bird Perkins Cancer Center and Ochsner Cancer Center—are pushing deeper into underserved communities, deploying new technology and rethinking how care is delivered. The challenges of access, staffing and financing remain formidable, but the distance between patients and quality care is shrinking. Nearly 80% of Louisiana’s land is classified […]
Rapper Offset released from the hospital after being shot outside a Florida casino
The rapper Offset has been released from the hospital after being shot outside a Florida casino earlier this week, a spokesperson said | WWL
Rapper Offset released from the hospital after being shot outside a Florida casino
The rapper Offset has been released from the hospital after being shot outside a Florida casino earlier this week, a spokesperson said | KMBZ
Mets' Bo Bichette making statement after early struggles
The former Blue Jays star is settling in.
Science finds surprising link between your martial status and risk of cancer
Married people tend to have greater financial stability and stronger social support, which can help them maintain healthier habits and get medical care earlier, researchers noted
Science finds surprising link between your martial status and risk of cancer
Married people tend to have greater financial stability and stronger social support, which can help them maintain healthier habits and get medical care earlier, researchers noted
Morning Download: UNLV projects a nearly $11 million NIL/revenue sharing budget
On weekday mornings, Nevada Sports Net will recap three big headlines of the day in its Morning Download. Read below for today's topics.
Swashbuckling co-op survivor Windrose sets sail into early access next week, which means it's time to battle Blackbeard and a big flower
Pirate survival game Windrose releases in early access next week, its devs have revealed with a new trailer.
FoodeesFest debuts at Pearl outlets with food and local business support
FoodeesFest is making its first appearance in Mississippi, offering three days of food, shopping, and support for local businesses at the outlets in Pearl.
From Koch to Adams, history shows rocky starts are common for NYC mayors
Past mayors dealt with budget crises or economic downturns early on.
Scheffler, Rose to chase McIlroy with early Masters starts
Top-ranked Scottie Scheffler and England's Justin Rose were set for early starts chasing co-leaders Rory McIlroy and Sam Burns as Friday's second round of the Masters began at Augusta National.Burns, the 54-hole leader at last year's US Open, managed his lowest round in 13 at Augusta National despite the firm greens.
Crimson Desert is getting boss rematches, difficulty settings, and extra skills in upcoming updates
Pearl Abyss has outlined some of the new content and features coming to Crimson Desert in future free updates.
Is a Big Album Dropping? You Might Want to Watch the Road.
A study found that traffic fatalities increased in the United States by nearly 15 percent on the same days as the biggest album releases.
Crimson Desert Dev Confirms Boss Rematches, Hard Difficulty, Enemy Territory Recapture, and a Whole Lot More Is Coming Soon
Crimson Desert developer Pearl Abyss has outlined a number of significant changes coming to the game in the coming months, each addressing various community complaints that were highlighted recently. Here's everything you need to know.
Firefighters tackle blaze at Guildford recycling business
Six crews are sent to the scene in Fairlands, Guilford, after the fire broke out in the early hours.
Making cutting-edge science accessible to early physics students
By feeding students the mysteries and wonder of modern physics, Don Lincoln hopes to ‘blow their minds.’
Hundreds of Colorado business leaders call for action as nearly 100 companies leave the state
Agriculture secretary’s religious Easter message to all employees sparks internal backlash and a formal complaint
A “Christ is Risen” Easter message sent by the secretary of agriculture has sparked backlash inside the department, angering some of its nearly 100,000 employees and prompting a formal complaint against the secretary for the religious message.
Hundreds of business leaders call for action as nearly 100 companies leave Colorado
LeBron James dunks right behind KTVU sports reporter Bailey O'Carroll
It's all eyes on Lakers LeBron James ahead of the Warriors final home game of the regular season. While warming up with some free throws ahead of their game with the Warriors, LeBron James decides to dunk, nearly taking out our sports reporter!