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13 Action News: Sports for April 14, 2026
13 Action News: Sports for April 14, 2026
Vaishali in contention to win FIDE Women's Candidates; Kerala Blasters host NorthEast United in ISL: Indian Sports LIVE, April 15
Here are all the updates from Indian sports on April 15, 2026.
Judge weighs whether ethics case should proceed against Councilmember Paladino
Paladino has several days to provide a written response.
Man fatally stabbed in New Cross after business deal 'went sour'
Ayowale Aladejana was killed after the couple accused of his murder drove to his home, a court hears.
TFT patch 17.1
Choose your Space God, earn their powerful boon, and assemble your galactic roster!
Small business owners sound alarm on word that Hamilton County may sell Business Incubator
Small Business owners at the Hamilton County Business Development Center say they’re worried about the future of the facility as the County Commission is set to
Advertisers demand billions of dollars from Google in escalating monopoly battle
Alphabet Inc.’s Google is facing billions of dollars in potential damage claims as part of mass arbitration tied to the company’s online search and advertising technology businesses, which courts have ruled were illegal monopolies.
Industry Insight: See How Your Business Compares With Pay and Benefits for Key Roles
The Scoop’s annual salary survey offers benchmarking data to aid with recruiting and retaining ag retail employees.
24,000 Years After Being Frozen In The Siberian Permafrost, This Ancient Creature Woke Up And Began To Reproduce
Scientists thawed the ancient sample from the Alazeya River in northeastern Siberia, and to their surprise, the creature woke up.
UCF Materials Science Undergraduate Researcher Awarded DOE Internship at National Lab
Deneé Lichtenberg is advancing new methods for recovering rare earth metals — groundbreaking work she’ll continue at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Curiosity is in the air at UAF Science Potpourri
The scintillating sizzle of curiosity filled the air at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Reichardt Building as children of all ages immersed themselves in the annual Science Potpourri on Saturday.
Pool Scouts Owner Wins SBA Alabama Veteran-Owned Small Business of the Year Award
Pool Scouts of Huntsville owner, among other SBA winners, will be recognized during the National Small Business Week for their significant work within the greater Alabama business community.
Final tour for Alabama stops in Cedar Rapids
Alabama, a band that marries country with Southern rock, was among the most successful acts of the '80s. Known for hits like "Tennessee River," they will perform on Sunday at the Alliant Energy PowerHouse.
The Salary Penalty: Why Trump’s Tax Bill Hits a Banker Harder Than a Plumber
These days the biggest factor determining what high earners owe the government is how they make their money.
Today’s Papers: Two Italy duels, Inter strength, Juventus stars
La Gazzetta dello SportDuels of Italy Malago-Abete for the FIGCAzzurri CT: Allegri battles ConteSerie A in agreement (19 of 20) in favor of the former CONI President. The number one of the amateur le...
Annual Science Potpourri sparks kids’ interest in sciences — The Sun Star
The University of Alaska Fairbanks held its annual Science Potpourri Saturday to the delight of the children in attendance. Laughter and “oohs” and “awws” were heard many times as the event held demonstrations with explosions, microscopes, museum curation, and other items to get children interested
UMass Chan faculty, medical students aim to improve health through reducing hospital waste
As part of an initiative to help reduce unnecessary waste, students, faculty and staff participated in a 24-hour trash audit at UMass Memorial Medical Center.
Carbon removal project supports Maine’s blue economy, broader marine health
MIT researchers introduce a chemical-free approach to balancing ocean acidity that protects marine life and could have huge impact on the global aquaculture market.
Bethel conference highlights how ‘better science occurs’ with local knowledge at the table
Researchers and local experts gathered in Bethel in early April to share and compare environmental knowledge at the Western Alaska Interdisciplinary Science Conference, particularly across issues facing the Yukon-Kuwkoksim Delta.
US crude futures fall over $1 as traders weigh supply risks
U.S. crude futures fell more than $1 in early Asian trade on Tuesday as traders balanced heightened supply risks linked to a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz with reports that Washington and Tehran were still open to talks after a tense meeting in Islamabad.
Blurry iPhone Text Picture Problem: Is There An Easy Solution I'm Missing?
I use my iPhone for all my pictures of airlines and hotels. It serves me well, with one major issue... is there something I'm missing?
This new Android app could be a lifesaver for sleepy commuters
Sleep&Arrive is a new Android app with Wear OS support that tries to wake you based on your location rather than a fixed alarm time.
CU Boulder lab researching science of avalanches
Colorado has seen how deadly avalanches can be. Vriend has been studying avalanches for more than a decade. While we often see the dramatic images of avalanches, not much is known about what really ...
First Three Episodes of “BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War - The Calamity” Exclusively Head to U.S. Theatres Before Broadcast and Streaming from VIZ Media and Fathom Entertainment On June 25-29
Fathom Entertainment First Three Episodes of “BLEACH: Thousand-Year Blood War - The Calamity” Exclusively Head to U.S. Theatres Before Broadcast and Streaming from VIZ Media and Fathom Entertainment On June 25-29
The Future Of Health And Nutrition In America
Lifestyle contributor Kari Hawker Diaz returns with balance of nature to discuss the future of health and nutrition in America, and share simple habits and stra
Colorado leaders warn of a "deteriorating" business climate
The ad-hoc organization, Ensuring Colorado's Innovation Future, cites Palantir's relocation as a major concern.
Morgan Wallen’s Tuscaloosa show is this weekend: Secure last-minute ticket deals before they sell out
Country music star Morgan Wallen will be in Tuscaloosa, Alabama this weekend for the next stop on his Still The Problem North American tour. Concertgoers still looking for tickets can find limited seats available.
Small Business Expo with SouthWest Mobile County Chamber
The SouthWest Mobile County Chamber of Commerce will host an inside-outside community event on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, from 2:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m.
New ultra-premium foldable released internationally with big launch discounts
Motorola has now started selling its first book-style foldable. Available internationally, the Razr Fold undercuts the Galaxy Z Fold7 and the Pixel 10 Pro Fold with a massive launch discount and several wearable accessories thrown in for good measure.
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
State Policy Trends in Cybersecurity and Public Health Preparedness
Learn how states are including cybersecurity in their emergency preparedness work in this Health Policy Update.
Preparing for Cyber Warfare Risks: Why Every Business Must Strengthen Cloud Security
Cyber warfare risks continue to rise as geological tensions escalate. Learn how to strengthen your cloud security, and mitigate any cyber warfare risks.
An 18-game NFL season is coming: Here's how the league can keep the balance right
As the NFL moves toward an 18-game season in the next few years, the NBA's tanking-shaped stretch run offers a recent example of what can happen late in long seasons -- and what the league may need to manage to keep games competitive
Kari Hawker Diaz returns with Balance of Nature to talk America’s health future
Lifestyle contributor Kari Hawker Diaz returns with Balance of Nature to discuss the future of health and nutrition in America. (7NEWS)
Last Of Us Team Believed Crunch Necessary For Games At Its ‘Level’
The team is reportedly crunching again for Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet
Samsung One UI 8.5 beta now arriving for these older Galaxy phones
Samsung expands the One UI 8.5 beta to the Galaxy Z Fold 5, S23 FE, and A-series, bringing AirDrop support and LLM-powered Bixby to more users.
Hubble Spies an Active Spiral
Hubble captures a luminous swirl set against the deep black of space, the barred spiral galaxy IC 486 glows with a soft, ethereal light.
Following the Success of Artemis II, Scientists Will Shape What Comes Next for Lunar Exploration
NASA plans to launch more lunar missions after the success of Artemis II, signaling a renewed era for lunar exploration and science — and raising questions about what comes next. A National Academies study currently underway will identify key non-polar landing sites for future crewed lunar missions and what science goals could be achieved.
Ann Brach Appointed Executive Director of Transportation Research Board at National Academies
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine announced today that Ann Brach has been named the executive director of the Transportation Research Board (TRB).
DoctorGPT: AI’s rising role in Gainesville healthcare
Alachua County Deputy Fire Chief Jeff Taylor said the department uses AI for administrative tasks but remains wary of bringing the technology into patient care.
One UI 9 leak suggests Samsung is listening to our software complaints
Leaked One UI 9 changes point to smarter photo edits, a simpler 'About phone' section, and fluid animations.
Fifteen bucks a signature: the crisis of money in US politics is growing
The fight over California’s billionaire tax is just the latest symptom of a crisis that has escalated since 2010
Blind Boys of Alabama to perform in Provincetown
The Blind Boys of Alabama, Grammy-winning gospel legends, will perform in Provincetown to benefit WOMR radio.
Politics made Alabama power bills high. It can lower them
The Alabama Legislature passed a law to cut the public out of the rate-making process. Here’s the flaw in it.
Howe accepts accountability after Newcastle collapse at Crystal Palace
Newcastle United manager Eddie Howe accepted full responsibility after his side squandered another lead in a 2-1 defeat at Crystal Palace on Sunday afternoon.Consequently, the Magpies have plummeted t...
The Message Man: Ferraro Award Winner Matt Corridoni ’13 Helps Political Campaigns Connect
Forty years after Geraldine Ferraro ’56 became the first woman nominated for vice president by a major political party, Kamala Harris mounted her own ba...
Ocean Heat Waves Are 'Supercharging' Hurricane Damage, Scientists Warn
"This is shocking but should also be alarming for people.”
Black hole wakes after 100 million years and erupts like a cosmic volcano
A colossal “cosmic volcano” has erupted in deep space, as a supermassive black hole in galaxy J1007+3540 roars back to life after nearly 100 million years of silence. Astronomers captured stunning radio images showing fresh jets blasting outward while crashing into the intense pressure of a surrounding galaxy cluster, creating a chaotic, distorted structure stretching nearly a million light-years.
Together for health and standing with science for our planet and its people
Himalayan spikenard (Nardostachys jatamansi) © Morten Ross / iNaturalist Statement by CITES Secretary-General Ivonne Higuero on the occasion of World Health Day 2026CITES is a multilateral
Together for health and standing with science for our planet and its people
Himalayan spikenard (Nardostachys jatamansi) © Morten Ross / iNaturalist Statement by CITES Secretary-General Ivonne Higuero on the occasion of World Health Day 2026CITES is a multilateral
AVAC: Abrupt shutdown of US global health supply chain raises risks for HIV, TB and malaria programs
Two hundred and fifty civil society organizations signed on to a letter to the US Secretary of State calling for immediate reversal of this decision.
South San's Guerrero, Alamo Heights' Hart lead Team White to victories
South San's Adam Guerrero and Alamo Heights' Berkley Hart lead Team White to victories in the San Antonio Sports All-Star basketball games.
Stanford Health, Alameda County forge new partnership for St. Rose Hospital
Alameda County leaders and health care groups gathered outside St. Rose Hospital last week to announce an expansion to medical services for thousands of East Bay residents.
EL PAÍS: US aid cuts collapse Malawi’s LGBTQ+ health services as volunteers scramble to fill the void
The lack of funding has left some 15,000 users of NGO programs scrambling for care in a public system that many fear to enter.
Samsung Confirms Upgrade Offer—Galaxy Owners Must Now Decide
Millions of Samsung phones are vulnerable to attack — you must act now.
Commissioner Bill Canda created septic business to evade taxes
Thanks to a miscommunication in March between the Custer County Sheriff’s Office and the 12th Judicial District Attorney’s Office in Alamosa, the majority of the Colorado Bureau of Investigation (CBI) inquiry into Custer County Commissioner Bill Canda for alleged sales tax fraud was made public. The
Fallout from Eric Swalwell scandal grows as lawmakers eye House expulsion votes
The political crisis surrounding Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell is rapidly escalating into a broader bipartisan showdown that could reshape the makeup of the House.
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress
Functional medicine practitioner Jennifer Gularson highlights how physiological shifts like menopause can trigger significant stress and hormone imbalances.
Alabama redshirt freshman QB turns heads with spring game performance
Keelon Russell was a five-star recruit in the 2025 class, and he could be in line to take over under center this fall after an electric spring game.
Uncertainty remains one month until May revision of state budget
Gov. Newsom and state lawmakers have less than three months to agree on a balanced budget before the next fiscal year starts on July 1.
From LLMs to hallucinations, here's a simple guide to common AI terms
The rise of AI has brought an avalanche of new terms and slang. Here is a glossary with definitions of some of the most important words and phrases you might encounter.
How to Build a Balanced Plate in 30 Seconds
Building a balanced plate can feel like one more impossible task. But it doesn’t have to be complicated. Here's how to do it.
How to Reclaim Your Android's Original Speed in Under 10 Minutes
Your Android is capable of a massive speed boost, and it's time you took advantage of it.
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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⚠️ Concern for Mbappé! Not training with the squad after eyebrow stitches
Real Madrid completed training this Sunday with an absence that raised alarm bells, although the club is conveying complete calm. According to several media outlets, Kylian Mbappé did not go out onto...
Best 2-in-1 Laptops (2026): Microsoft, Lenovo, and the iPad
Whether you want a detachable tablet or a laptop screen that spins, these 2-in-1 devices manage to balance being both a tablet and a laptop.
After being an iPhone user for 13 years, here's why I'm finally switching to Android for good
After 13 years with an iPhone, I finally made the switch to Android — and it all came down to one simple feature.
Maria Elvira Salazar raises nearly $1M in three months as she gears up for re-election
The South Florida Republican is running for a fourth term in a battleground district.
Nell Nolan: 8 O'Clocks, Christian Brothers Gala, Chapelle Emerald Gala
Rocking around the Clocks
Galaxy Z Roll 5G: Samsung’s Motorized Display Solves the Foldable Crease
Samsung Galaxy Z Roll 5G leak cites 100W wired charging with an 8,000 mAh battery, shifting past Samsung charging limits.
Finally, a Foldable That Fits: Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 Wide Leaks a Massive 4:3 Screen Upgrade
Samsung Galaxy Z Wide Fold rumor points to a 4:3 inner display; One UI animations may target tablet-like multitasking in 2026.
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7 now costs more in the US
This means the Galaxy Z Fold8 coming in a few months could cost even more. The Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7, unveiled last July, is expected to get a successor...
What Now? Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal.
The lack of a breakthrough after 21 hours of negotiations leaves the Trump administration facing several unpalatable options.
One UI 8.5 rollout possibly delayed for these two reasons
With the 9th beta, Samsung has delayed the One UI 8.5 rollout for the Galaxy S25 series, and these two reasons could be responsible for this move. It’s expected that the 9th beta may not be the final, and we may have a 10th coming soon. These test firmwares may be released in April, and […]
Dauphin Island Sea Lab hosts Discovery Day open house
The event offered hands-on science lessons and free aquarium admission for children.
Colorado House finishes work on 2026-27 state budget, finally
The House on Saturday, after four days of work – it usually takes two – finished up their work and voted on the $46.8 billion 2026-27 state budget, as contained in House Bill 1410 and 64 accompanying measures designed to help balance the budget. The delay in getting to the finish line was caused by […]
Samsung Confirms Bad Price News For Galaxy Phone Buyers
Samsung is raising prices for premium Galaxy phones that are months old. Bucking a long-held trend of smartphones dropping in price as they age.
RDC Hosts Free Business Booster Workshop And Intensive Networking Lunch April 14 At SALA
Visit the post for more.
The business of travel is booming in Seward
With a class offered through Alaska Vocational Technical Center, locals are learning business basics and launching new careers.
Salah, Ngumoha ease Liverpool crisis with Fulham win
Liverpool's rising star and departing legend combined to ease the pressure on Arne Slot as goals from teenager Rio Ngumoha and Mohamed Salah beat Fulham 2-0, snapping the Reds' three-game losing streak on Saturday.Salah failed to get on the pitch at all during Liverpool's chastening 2-0 Champions League defeat by Paris Saint-Germain in midweek.
Growing List of Dead and Missing NASA Scientists Triggers New Alarm
The list of dead and missing scientists throughout the U.S. was already spurring growing alarm and, in some cases, the attention of law enforcement. Another name has been added to the list by some new...
Golden Knights have chance to clinch playoff berth against Avalanche
It has taken longer than anticipated for the Vegas Golden Knights to reach this point, but better late than never.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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