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JD Vance says Trump's post of himself as Jesus was 'a joke'
Vice President JD Vance said President Trump's social media post apparently portraying himself as Jesus was "a joke."
Downtown Las Vegas music venue faces lawsuit over ‘excessive noise’
The landlord’s attorney Evan Thalgott said the lawsuit comes after “numerous good-faith efforts to resolve the issue without court intervention proved unsuccessful.”
GoPro Launches MISSION 1 Action Cinema Cameras With 8K and 50MP 1" Sensor
GoPro introduces the MISSION 1 series, a new class of action cinema cameras featuring a 50MP 1 inch sensor, 8K video, and an interchangeable lens system for advanced creators.
JD Vance heads to UGA amid crucial Georgia primary stretch
The Athens event is part of Turning Point USA's traveling college campus series, with Trump‑backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones also set to address students.
Ally Achieves Historic 50/50 Sports Media Pledge One Year Ahead of Schedule
Commits to Continuing the Work to Advance Women's Sports and Support the Fans Who Made It Happen CHARLOTTE, N.C., April 14, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE: ALLY) today announced it...
Advancing Metabolic Health Through Coordinated Care
The Metabolic Health Institute is a first-of-its-kind model unifying endocrinology, obesity medicine and bariatric surgery under non-surgical leadership.
Q&A with chemist Max Delferro: Unlocking breakthroughs in catalytic science
In this Q&A, chemist Max Delferro explains how his team is combining catalysis, artificial intelligence and robotics to speed chemical discovery — cutting catalyst development from decades to years while advancing more efficient industrial processes.
Building a mission-ready DAF mental health enterprise for the future fight
Air Force Medical Service leaders advanced the efforts to align mental health policy, training and leadership practices to mission readiness requirements outlined in the Department of War’s 2026 National Defense Strategy, during the Mental Health Leadership and Readiness Symposium in Orlando, Florida, on March 9-12.
Major gift promises to accelerate Princeton University’s leadership in quantum science
The gift from Andy Florance ’86 and Heather Florance will support the Princeton Quantum Initiative and will accelerate the next generation of quantum science research and discovery at the University.
Key players miss training before Sporting clash
Five of Arsenal's key players were missing from the open part of training before the Gunners quarter-final second-leg match against Sporting in the Champions League. Arsenal have a 1-0 advantage from the first leg but have a number of injury issues in the squad. Declan Rice, who played 90 minutes of Arsenal's 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth at the weekend, was not seen in the first 15 minutes of the training session that was open to the media.
Bill Galvano’s annual golf classic honoring his father marks 30 years of fundraising for local classrooms
'This annual golf tournament benefiting the Manatee Education Foundation has been such a special and fitting tribute to his legacy.'
Personnel note: Ivan Rodriguez-Seda joins Continental Strategy’s Jax office
'He has a proven record of delivering results on complex issues, securing hundreds of millions in funding, and building coalitions internationally.'
Orbán’s Election Defeat Resonates in Washington, Tel Aviv
Vance praised Orbán’s 16-year tenure as “transformational,” portraying him as a key ally who challenged European Union policies.
Quenda returns in time to face Arsenal
Sporting winger Geovany Quenda is back and ready to face Premier League opposition again, starting with Arsenal. The 18-year-old missed Sporting's 1-0 first-leg defeat as he completed the final stage of his recovery from a foot injury. Sporting's number seven returned from the bench in Saturday's win over Estrela Amadora and will again be available for Wednesday's tie against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium.
Eye on the Y: BYU neuroscience student advances science of seizure intervention, Elder Ulisses Soares to speak at April 2026 commencement and Grantwell program gives students opportunities to work with nonprofit organizations
Melissa Blotter: Advancing the science of seizure intervention
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Sade, Oasis, Wu-Tang Clan and Luther Vandross get into Rock Hall
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Billy Idol, Queen Latifah, Oasis, Sade and Joy Division/New Order are set to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame | K-DAWN
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Sade, Oasis, Wu-Tang Clan and Luther Vandross get into Rock Hall
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Billy Idol, Queen Latifah, Oasis, Sade and Joy Division/New Order are set to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame | 1080 WTIC NEWSTALK
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Sade, Oasis, Wu-Tang Clan and Luther Vandross get into Rock Hall
Phil Collins, Iron Maiden, Billy Idol, Queen Latifah, Oasis, Sade and Joy Division/New Order are set to be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame | KNSS Radio
Vance Says Pope Leo Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs
The vice president, a Catholic, defended President Trump, who had accused the pope of being too liberal and “weak on crime.”The pontiff responded that he had “no fear of the Trump administration.”
Zach Lowe warns Donovan Mitchell at Cavaliers’ playoff crossroads
NBA analyst Zach Lowe had a worrying message about Donovan Mitchell and the Cavaliers' playoff status going into the first round series.
Towards better vision: WHO South-East Asia regional meeting on eye health
The WHO South-East Asia Regional Meeting on Eye Health was convened to address the substantial and persistent burden of avoidable vision impairment in the Region. South-East Asia accountsfor nearly one third of the world’s blind and visually impaired population, with cataract, uncorrected refractive error, and diabetic retinopathy contributing to more than 90 percent of cases. The meeting responded to the need for coordinated action to achieve the 2030 global targets for effective cataract surgical coverage and effective refractive error coverage, and to advance implementation of the Regional Action Plan for Integrated People Centred Eye Care. It provided a platform for reviewing progress, identifying system gaps, and strengthening country pathways to accelerate universal access to quality eye care.
Vance had two high-profile opportunities to prove himself. Both fell flat
In the latter half of 2025, Vice President JD Vance’s future as the next Republican presidential nominee was looking fairly promising. It’s been a series of unfortunate events since then.
Operation Metro Surge costs Minnesota schools, businesses millions as relief bills advance
The financial fallout from Operation Metro Surge is hitting Minnesota communities hard, with businesses and schools across the state starting to see the strain show up in tax figures.
Advancing Health Together: Progress Report 2025
Explore how Elevance Health works with care providers to deliver more affordable, connected, and high-quality care for the people we serve.
Luc Schrauf selected as Eberly College of Science spring 2026 student marshal
Luc Schrauf of State College, Pennsylvania, will be honored as the student marshal for the Penn State Eberly College of Science at the University’s spring 2026 commencement ceremony on Sunday, May 10, on the University Park campus.
Thaddeus Stevens College to launch online small business management program
Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology prides itself on integrating its students into central Pennsylvania trade and technical programs, to the point that many are working for local businesses before they
JD Vance had a vision for the world. Trump is wrecking it.
The vice president’s disastrous week reveals that he’s in a trap of his own making.
Kim Kardashian makes her Broadway producing debut with the criminal justice play 'The Fear of 13'
Kim Kardashian is adding Broadway producer to her resume | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Kim Kardashian makes her Broadway producing debut with the criminal justice play 'The Fear of 13'
Kim Kardashian is adding Broadway producer to her resume | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Cubs vs. Phillies prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB picks for Monday, April 13 from advanced model
SportsLine's model reveals its Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies best bets and MLB picks today
JD Vance Seems to Ruin Everything He Touches
Does the vice president really think he has a shot in 2028, despite his consistent failures?
Virginia Beach event to celebrate Luther Vandross’ legacy through art and entertainment
Center for Economic and Social Research Joins Schaeffer Institute, Building on USC’s Strengths in Social Science and Policy Impact - April 13, 2026
The move advances USC’s role as a hub for social science research and policy translation. - April 13, 2026
Jeanette Gowen Cook named 2025 AAAS fellow
The American Association for the Advancement of Science selected the UNC School of Medicine professor for the prestigious honor.
Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Hitter matchups to exploit and stream in Week 4, based on advanced stats
7 ways AI is advancing healthcare and wellbeing around the world
AI-powered tools are being used to bring greater efficiency and security to healthcare around the world and increase access to medicines and care.
Smart Adhesive Is Key to Crease-Free Foldable iPhone Display
Advances in optically clear adhesive (OCA) will be a key factor in achieving a near-invisible crease in Apple's first foldable iPhone expected later this year, according to TrendForce. The supply chain intelligence firm outlined the key technologies in a new report on foldable display innovation, explaining that creases form when layers within the display panel fall out of alignment, concentrating stress at the fold and causing micro-cracks or permanent deformation over time.
PREVIEW: Liverpool hoping for special display to overturn PSG
Liverpool will welcome Paris Saint-Germain to Anfield tomorrow night as they look to overturn a 2-0 deficit from the first leg in the French capital last week.Should the Reds fail to advance to the ne...
Trump post appearing to depict himself as Jesus sparks backlash from religious right
Evangelical and Catholic allies call the post “blasphemous” and urge its removal in a rare public break from a base that has largely stood by Trump.
‘Wheel of Fortune’: Vanna White Parties With Her Kids at Coachella
The longtime co-host, 69, shares two adult children, Nikko and Gigi, with her ex-husband.
Poll: Will Steph Curry and the Warriors Advance?
The NBA play-in tournament begins Tuesday, with eight teams looking to advance in the NBA playoffs. On Tuesday, the Phoenix Suns (7 seed) host the Portland Trail Blazers (8), and the Charlotte Hornets (9) host the Miami Heat (10). On Wednesday, the Philadelphia 76ers (7) host the Orlando Magic (8), and the Los Angeles Clippers (9) host the Golden State Warriors (10).
Imaging science research gives new clarity on what color helps eyes focus best
Research by RIT assistant professor Benjamin Chin published in Science Advances may help determine which wavelengths helps the eye focus best.
Dr. Richard Finn recognized for advancing liver cancer treatments
Dr. Finn has been named a 2026 Blue Faery Award for Excellence in Liver Cancer Research honoree and will receive the Lifetime Impact Award.
Deloitte's Space Business Reaches New Heights as Two New Satellites Enter Orbit
/PRNewswire/ -- Key takeaways Deloitte-2 and Deloitte-3, launched on March 29, 2026, from Vandenberg Space Force Base to expand Deloitte's on-orbit footprint....
Light-hitting Mariners taking advantage of Astros' shaky pitching
Every year, generally come playoff time, the question is asked: Does good pitching beat good hitting?
SCORE Offers Free Business Mentoring Sessions
Local entrepreneurs and small business owners in Pasadena have a valuable resource at their fingertips with the ongoing SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Sessions. These free and confidential appointments provide individuals with expert guidance on starting, running, or growing a small business, courtesy of SCORE, the nation’s largest network of volunteer business mentors. The sessions are designed to offer personalized advice and strategic insights from experienced professionals. SCORE, which stands for Service Corps of Retired Executives, is a non-profit organization and a key resource partner of the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). Its mission is to foster vibrant small business communities through dedicated mentoring and education. The organization comprises a network of seasoned business owners and executives who generously volunteer their time to support the next generation of entrepreneurs. As SCORE states, their mentoring is a “free, confidential service for anyone starting, running, or growing a U.S.-based small business.” These one-hour mentoring sessions are held every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at two branches of the Pasadena Public Library: the Lamanda Park Branch Library and the Santa Catalina Branch Library. Appointments can be conveniently reserved up to 14 days in advance, ensuring that individuals can schedule a time that best suits their needs. This recurring service underscores SCORE’s commitment to continuous support for the local business community, helping them to plan, launch, and grow successfully. Need to Know: The SCORE One-on-One Mentoring Session offers free business guidance. These one-hour appointments are available every other Tuesday from 1 to 5 p.m. at the Pasadena Public Library’s Lamanda Park Branch (140 S Altadena Drive, Pasadena, CA 91107) and Santa Catalina Branch (999 E Washington Blvd., Pasadena, CA 91104). The service is free. For more information or to book an appointment, visit [https://www.score.org/].
Jennifer Riley: Nuclear verdicts and junk science are creating a judicial hellhole
Over the years, Pennsylvania has become flooded with excessive lawsuits that are pushing our healthcare system to a breaking point. […]
USC Brain Health Center could be hub for Alzheimer’s treatment, new tech for mental health
A new $30 million Brain Health Center at USC in Columbia will be a magnet for advanced diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer’s disease and dementia but also deploy new technology for mental health.
Downtown Evanston to offer Refresh & Renew: Health & Wellness Open House event April 25
Spend April 25 day exploring local fitness and wellness businesses in downtown Evanston — try free mini-sessions, meet owners and instructors, tour spaces
Oil prices surge after failed US-Iran peace talks, Trump's blockade
Vice President JD Vance traveled to Pakistan on Saturday to engage in peace talks with Iran. However, the two countries failed to reach a deal.
Inside Vance’s Iran negotiations: No deal, but ‘friendly’ talks
Vice President JD Vance’s negotiations in Pakistan with Iran failed to end the war, but progress was reported on building goodwill.
LA Leaders Create Foundation to Fight $50M Health Cuts
Los Angeles community leaders launched The Fund for Advancing Public Health LA to offset $50 million in LA County public health budget cuts affecting clinics.
Will thrilling Scottish title race be decided on goal difference?
Rangers' 6-3 win over Falkirk extends the Ibrox side's advantage over leaders Heart of Midlothian and Celtic should the Scottish Premiership title be decided on goal difference.
"Find something that works for you": Health and wellness tips for the summer
Fitness expert Doug Bopst joins Jen Franciotti to discuss positive health habits to develop in advance of the summer months.
Braves vs. Guardians prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball from advanced model
SportsLine's model reveals Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians picks, MLB best bets for Sunday Night Baseball
GSK sees blockbuster potential in targeted cancer therapy after promising early data
British drugmaker GSK's experimental targeted cancer drug Mo-rez has blockbuster potential, its head of oncology research has told reporters, after early data showed the drug helped shrink tumors in patients with advanced, hard-to-treat cancers.
Politics chat: Vance says talks with Iran haven't reached an agreement
Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. and Iran did not reach an agreement to end the war after meeting on Saturday. Control over the Strait of Hormuz remains a flash point in the war.
Cuban leader does not commit to releasing political prisoners amid U.S. demands
In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel is asked whether he is willing to commit to meeting key U.S. demands, including releasing political prisoners and scheduling multi-party elections.
How to Reclaim Your Android's Original Speed in Under 10 Minutes
Your Android is capable of a massive speed boost, and it's time you took advantage of it.
BGHS students earn multiple honors at science competitions - Sent-trib
Bowling Green High School students demonstrated their scientific knowledge, teamwork, and problem-solving skills at two regional science competitions held on March 14, earning multiple top finishes and one student advancing to the state level.
Bruce Ledewitz: Our politics is a world of unreason
We live in an age of political unreason. Unless we are learn to think more reasonably, especially rejecting our own side’s partisan lies, America...
Vote for Girls Athlete of the Week for April 4-10 presented by the Vance Law Firm
Cast your vote for the Montgomery Advertiser's Girls Athlete of the Week for April 4-10 presented by the Vance Law Firm.
What Now? Vance Leaves Iran Talks Without a Deal.
The lack of a breakthrough after 21 hours of negotiations leaves the Trump administration facing several unpalatable options.
Vance says US-Iran talks end without deal after 21 hours of negotiations
Vice President JD Vance says U.S.-Iran talks ended without a deal after Iran refused American terms, calling the outcome bad news for Iran more than the United States.
Jarred Vanderbilt talks about incident with Lakers coach JJ Redick
Jarred Vanderbilt seems like he has put his heated interaction with Lakers coach JJ Redick in the past.
10 minutes backstage with David Lee Roth at Coachella
INDIO, Calif. — David Lee Roth popped out at the Coachella Valley and Arts Festival on Friday to sing Van Halen's classic "Jump" with Teddy Swims. After the show, we
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
Billy Donovan, perhaps coaching Bulls for last time, faces Mavericks
Chicago's season-ending road clash with the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday will be Bulls coach Billy Donovan's 482nd regular-season game on the bench.
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
Gulfstream's Skyward event draws global business aviation leaders to Savannah
Gulfstream Aerospace Corp. recently hosted nearly 2,000 attendees from over 30 countries at Skyward, its newly reimagined customer event in Savannah. The three-day conference served as a pivotal gathering to discuss the evolving landscape of business aviation.
DrPH Student Spotlight: Victoria Adewumi | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Victoria shares her experience in the DrPH Program and her work advancing community health worker leadership and policy.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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