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Ally Bank reached 50/50 spend on men’s and women’s sports. Now its CMO is taking on ‘fanflation’
Women’s sports are booming, but rising prices could push out the very fans who built them.
Oil Price Spike Erodes Small Business Confidence, NFIB Says
Small business optimism dipped below its 52-year average for the first time in a year in March, driven by the Iran war and the subsequent surge in oil
Eastern Market hosts All Things Detroit Day, helping small business owners
Sheds 3 and 5 hosted independent entrepreneurs Sunday, allowing them to showcase their businesses for an event called All Things Detroit Day.
U.S. wholesale prices surged 4% last month during the Iran war
The surge in prices complicates the work of the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve, who have faced intense pressure from President Donald Trump to lower their benchmark interest rate. But some Fed policymakers are inclined to raise rates instead, as higher energy costs increase the inflation threat.
Morning Break: Saints partner with UnitedHealthcare to spotlight mental health
A collection of headlines and news about the Saints and the NFL for Tuesday, April 14
Pre-draft picture: Packers looking for better health at running back
Josh Jacobs played banged up in 2025, MarShawn Lloyd still trying to get going
Chargers Daily Links: Tuesday Open Thread
Your source for all Chargers and NFL news from around the web.
Prisco's Better-Than Team for 2026 NFL Draft: The 20 prospects he's higher on than scouts
R Mason Thomas headlines Prisco's list of 20 undervalued prospects
Get Money Out of Politics
Individuals and corporations alike can spend infinite sums of money to influence elections and push candidates that will support and – at the very least –
The Talbott Brothers to showcase songs from latest album ‘Borderlands’
The Talbott Brothers, heavily influenced by Bruce Springsteen’s “Nebraska,” will perform April 17 at CSPS Hall in Cedar Rapids.
Later More Than Doubles Enterprise Business as Influencer Marketing Becomes a Performance Channel
/PRNewswire/ -- Later, the enterprise standard for influencer marketing and social commerce, today announces record performance milestones for Q1 2026. Fueled...
Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war
The Iran war was meant to deliver a defining victory over Tehran that would secure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's place in history. More than six weeks into the conflict, he has been unable to translate military might into political gain.
Scientists reverse brain aging, with a nasal spray
New therapy is turning back the clock in aging brains, healing inflammation, restoring memory and reshaping the future of brain age-related therapies.
Why NBC Sports' Connor Rodgers Thinks Indiana CB D’Angelo Ponds Is the ‘Perfect Fit’ for the Jets
Rogers Compares Corner’s Playstyle to Aaron Glenn
After three years of conflict, Sudan faces a deeper health crisis
14 April 2026, Geneva, Cairo, Port Sudan – Three years of war in Sudan have created the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis, with devastating consequences for people’s health.While the situation is...
After three years of conflict, Sudan faces a deeper health crisis
Three years of war in Sudan have created the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis, with devastating consequences for people’s health.
Indiana small businesses see growth as nationwide optimism falls
The national economy is signaling growing unease over rising inflation and the Iran war.
NFL mock draft roundup: Experts predict first round before draft
The 2026 NFL Draft begins on April 23. Here are the latest expert projections for the first round from around the web.
Raiders veteran tackle heads to reserve/retired list
The Raiders placed veteran offensive tackle Joshua Miles on the reserve/retired list this offseason after five seasons spent in the NFL.
Can WR prospect with question marks fix 49ers WR corps?
The San Francisco 49ers have added two veterans wideouts to their room, but now they're looking at intriguing prospect in the 2026 NFL draft.
NFL mock draft: Dallas Cowboys make trade with Arizona Cardinals
In the latest NFL.com mock draft, the Cardinals trade the third pick for picks Nos. 12 and 20.
2026 NFL Draft: Raiders mock draft update
We break down our picks in a new three-round mock draft update for the Las Vegas Raiders ahead of the 2026 NFL draft.
Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Profile: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU
The Browns could use another cornerback. But is a first-round pick too high a price to pay this year?
Eliot Wolf: 'Business as usual' foe Patriots before NFL Draft
There were no updates on two popular offseason topics: the looming extension for cornerback Christian Gonzalez and the pursuit of Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown.
Allegheny Health Network and UPMC to have pop-up clinics for NFL draft in Pittsburgh
With the anticipated crowds of people for the NFL draft, health care workers are preparing to care for anyone who will need treatment.
Allegheny Health Network and UPMC to have major presence for NFL draft in Pittsburgh
NFL Draft 2026: A closer look at some Clemson prospects
The Clemson Tigers have a couple of players who have been mocked to the Chicago Bears, so we look at their top prospects here.
Patriots exec says 'Business as usual' for Mike Vrabel ahead of the NFL draft
New England Patriots coach Mike Vrabel didn’t make an appearance at the team’s pre-draft news conference Monday. But a front-office executive says the coach is going about his job as usual...
2026 NFL mock draft 8.2: Pair of QBs go in first round, while Rueben Bain Jr. goes top 10
NFL Draft Profile: Michigan Football DL Tre Williams
Tre Williams is seeking to be drafted after five years with Clemson and one with Michigan Football. Here’s our NFL Draft Profile on the veteran defensive tackle:
Former Bills great @StevieJohnson13 mentoring WR Keon Coleman
Former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson has taken Keon Coleman under his wing entering the young receiver’s third NFL season.
Mavericks part ways with director of health Johann Bilsborough
Johann Bilsborough had previously worked with the Celtics and the NFL's New England Patriots, before spending two seasons with Dallas.
City Council President Zeke Cohen lost his mother, but her influence lives in his politics
Joan Berzoff, a social work professor and the mother of Baltimore City Council President Zeke Cohen, died last week at age 76.
The Department of Justice’s investigation is the latest in Trump’s decades-long feud with the NFL
By targeting the NFL for allegedly forcing customers into expensive streaming options, Trump’s DOJ extends a long-running animosity
Eliot Wolf: "Business as usual" for Mike Vrabel in Patriots draft preparations
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was not present for the team's pre-draft press conference on Monday, which means that he didn't have to field any questions about the release of photos that have created questions about his relationship with The Athletic's NFL reporter Dianna Russini.
USA TODAY Sports launches inaugural Readers' Choice Awards
USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards voting is open. Cast your vote for best NFL cities, college baseball stadiums, and sports bars.
USA TODAY Sports launches inaugural Readers' Choice Awards
USA TODAY Sports Readers' Choice Awards voting is open. Cast your vote for best NFL cities, college baseball stadiums, and sports bars.
Kansas governor signs sports authority bill to guide Kansas City Chiefs’ developments
The governor, state legislative leaders and owners of the NFL franchise announced in December the framework of a deal for developing a domed stadium surrounded by an entertainment district in Wyandotte County, in addition to the team’s headquarters, training facility and related developments in Johnson County.
Renner's three-round NFL mock draft: A wide-open top 10 becomes a case study in positional value
With as many as 20 players in play for the top 10, this class turns into a real-time test of how teams value positions at the top of the draft
An 18-game NFL season is coming: Here's how the league can keep the balance right
As the NFL moves toward an 18-game season in the next few years, the NBA's tanking-shaped stretch run offers a recent example of what can happen late in long seasons -- and what the league may need to manage to keep games competitive
Event report: Exploring the potential and applications of citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts
Report: the European Citizen Science Association’s new WG on citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts' first in-person event.
Sperm quality is at its peak in the summer, study finds
Seasonal shifts in behavior — not temperature — may subtly influence sperm motility. Whether this variation in sperm quality influences fertility remains to be seen.
2026 NFL mock draft 8.1: Cardinals surprise with their picks (yes, plural), while Giants take a weapon at No. 5
Can Puck reinvent the news business for the influencer age?
CEO Sarah Personette’s risky bet on journalists as influencers
Five NFC teams that must ace the 2026 NFL Draft: Cowboys have two first-round picks to address leaky defense
Rams' Super Bowl window closing with Matthew Stafford nearing retirement
Detroit Lions NFL Draft Injury Report: Louisville WR Chris Bell
Chris Bell NFL Draft medical report. Full injury analysis heading into the 2026 NFL draft. How will it affect Detroit Lions draft strategy?
Men and women with obesity face very different hidden health risks
New research reveals that obesity affects men and women in surprisingly different ways. Men are more likely to develop harmful abdominal fat and signs of liver stress, while women show higher inflammation and cholesterol levels. These differences could help explain why health risks vary between sexes. Scientists say this could lead to more tailored treatments for obesity.
Artificial sweeteners: Why the science war is raging on
Conflicting studies on artificial sweeteners are fuelling fresh debate across food and drink, as health risks, regulation and reformulation collide worldwide.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Can red light therapy really deliver a beauty and health glow up? Here's the science
Wellness influencers tout the therapy's power for everything from rejuvenating skin and hair to boosting longevity. Devices sold for at-home use abound. We look at the evidence behind the hype.
Commanders showing interest in All-SEC cornerback
Texas Longhorns cornerbacks could be a steal for the Commanders on Day 3 of the NFL draft.
Chris Brazzell NFL Draft Profile
Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Brazzell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.
What Does Artificial Intelligence Really Mean for Global Politics?
As AI increasingly plays a central role in conflict and war, experts discuss its long-term impact on global politics.
❝Anti-rights groups: why we need a smarter politics of naming
As movements working to undermine universal human rights protections become more influential, the language used to call out these “anti-rights” groups also needs closer scrutiny, or else risks being self-defeating, writes Nicolas Agostini, human rights advocate and researcher.
Scientists were wrong about lifespan. Your genes matter way more than we thought
For years, scientists believed our lifespan was mostly shaped by environment and chance, with genetics playing only a minor role. But a new study from the Weizmann Institute flips that idea on its head, revealing that genes may actually account for about half of the differences in how long people live. By analyzing massive twin datasets—including twins raised apart—and using innovative simulations to filter out deaths from accidents and other external causes, researchers uncovered a hidden genetic influence that had been masked for decades.
Influential U.S. cardinals caution against Iran war, Trump immigration policies
Report Suggests Potential Detroit Lions Schedule Release Dates
The Detroit Lions 2026 NFL schedule release date is coming in mid-May. Here’s what we know and who the Lions will face.
A president and a pope: Two of the world’s most influential Americans at odds over Iran
Never before has the relationship between Washington and the Vatican revolved around two Americans — specifically, a 79-year-old politician from Queens and a 70-year-old pontiff from Chicago.
Pittsburgh plans entertainment, block party for pedestrians walking through the NFL Draft
Jeremy Waldrup, head of the Pittsburgh Downtown Partnership, has some advice for the several hundred thousand people who visit the city next week for the...
California Democrats Rushed to Back Eric Swalwell — and Quickly Abandoned Him
Representative Eric Swalwell, a Washington figure, was largely unknown in the California State Capitol. But influential groups began backing him for governor in the weeks before he was publicly accused of sexual assault.
2026 NFL mock draft: Jeremiyah Love goes top five, Cowboys trade up, Drake Maye gets a new weapon
Here's how the first 32 picks -- including three trades -- could unfurl.
TikTok vigilante Daadi Snacks calls out obnoxious influencers
The creator behind the Daadi Snacks TikTok account posts videos criticizing influencer behavior. Some of his targets have not been amused.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
Bengals’ mid-round targets hinted with latest NFL draft visit
Another Bengals visit hints at what the team might want to do in the second round and beyond.
Ken Bridges explores Roger Mills in Texas' Civil War efforts, politics
In his latest Texas history column, Ken Bridges explores the life and impact of Roger Mills - from Civil War battles to conflicts in U.S. politics.
Chris Bell NFL Draft Profile
Doug watches the college film to assess Chris Bell's strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.
Young Republicans more skeptical of Iran war, dividing Trump base
Even within Trump’s GOP base, cracks are showing when it comes to the Iran conflict. Younger Republicans are much less likely to support the war.
2026 NFL draft preview: Linebacker prospects and the Arizona Cardinals
Jess Root and Seth Cox talk about linebacker prospects to know for the Arizona Cardinals in the 2026 NFL draft.
Columbus Aviators coach, ex-NFL player Ted Ginn Jr. arrested, charged for DUI in Texas
The Aviators are set to play the Dallas Renegades on Sunday, with the team saying that offensive coordinator Todd Haley will step in for that game.
Football fans are being taken for a ride by the NFL — the DOJ could stop that
Nobody should be surprised that the Justice Department has opened an investigation into the NFL’s antitrust exemption — but it’s far from clear how this game will end.
Deion Sanders Offers Health Update After Colorado's Spring Game
Following his NFL career, Colorado Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders has had a few complications with his health, which have included blood clots and bladder cancer
Patriots host potential backup quarterback on pre-draft visit
Jalon Daniels projects as a late-round pick or rookie free agent in this year’s NFL Draft.
Cleveland Browns NFL Draft Profile: RB Cash Jones, Georgia
Are the Browns considering this Bulldog as the newest member of the Dawg Pound?
NFL Draft Scouting Report: Romello Height, EDGE, Texas Tech
Height is a true designated pass-rusher, which comes with positives and negatives.
Artemis II was a product of politics. Then it sent us over the Moon
In both 1968 and 2026, a mission to the Moon offered a refreshing blast of positivity for a conflict-ridden world. So what's different now — and what do we really gain from this new moonshot, five decades after the first?
Dianna Russini sidelined by New York Times during investigation into Mike Vrabel photos
Dianna Russini has been sidelined during an NYT investigation after photos surfaced of the NFL reporter with Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, per reports.
Rhode Island Marijuana Business License Lottery Blocked By Federal Judge Amid Challenge To Residency Rules
“Knowing the Act was facing legal challenges…CCC continued forward with its plan to implement the Act and its licensing scheme. The resulting fall-out will be, to be blunt, self-inflicted.” By Christopher Shea, Rhode Island Currant Nearly 100 applicants vying for 20 new cannabis retail licenses that were supposed to be awarded via lottery as soon […]
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Quarterback
The Lions seem solid at the QB position for 2026, but could they add a developmental QB?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
2026 NFL Draft Profile: Texas tight end Jack Endries
Texas tight end Jack Endries is a Day 3 prospect the Denver Broncos should consider in the 2026 NFL Draft.
2026 NFL mock draft 8.1: Cardinals surprise with their picks (yes, plural), while Giants take a weapon at No. 5
2026 NFL Draft rankings: David Bailey tops list of best Edge prospects
Here's a look at the best available Edge prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft, as ranked by USA TODAY Sports.
NFL reporter: Titans should acquire Falcons TE Kyle Pitts
One longtime NFL reporter suggests that the Tennessee Titans should acquire Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts.
Omar Cooper Jr. NFL Draft Profile
Doug watches the college film to assess Omar Cooper Jr.'s strengths and weaknesses as well as what it likely means for his NFL future.
Commanders must achieve one primary goal in 2026 NFL Draft
The 2026 NFL Draft is rapidly approaching and it's clear what the Commanders need to accomplish.
Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world
Trump likes to back winners in foreign elections. The upcoming vote in Hungary will test his clout
Donald Trump has made a public flex of his political influence abroad on a scale that few, if any, U.S. presidents have, trying to marshal power he’s used domestically to sway races around the world.
Lunar politics: Artemis and the US-China space race
The Artemis program is more than a return to the moon — it marks a new US-China power struggle. Analyst David Ariosto explains the race for resources and influence.
Report: Dianna Russini "will not be reporting" during internal investigation
The New York Times has reversed course regarding NFL insider Dianna Russini.
2026-27 NFL Odds: 'It's a Good Time to Buy Low on Detroit'
Sammy P did some digging to figure out where some of the sharpest minds are putting their money in NFL futures.
NFL Draft 2026: Ohio State has 3 defenders who are worth top-10 picks, positional value be damned
Construction Business Taking a Hit From Iran Conflict
Rising prices for fuel and materials such as aluminum push up costs just as they were stabilizing. ‘This war just trashed that.’
NFL teams with the most picks in the 2026 draft: Steelers set to dominate, Seahawks have only four picks
A look at which teams have the most picks and which are working with the fewest
What the DOJ's NFL investigation could mean for networks, fans
What could the federal government's investigation of the NFL mean for fans and television networks?
Italy's UniCredit says no plans to liquidate Russian business
UniCredit said on Friday it had no plans to liquidate its Russian business or return the banking licence held by its local subsidiary, which the Italian lender has held onto during the Ukraine conflict.
Detroit Lions 2026 NFL Draft Need Analysis: Wide Receiver
The Lions are well stocked at WR for 2026. Is there a chance they add to that position in the draft?
Watching Sports on TV Is More Annoying Than Ever. Can the Government Help?
The Justice Department launches an investigation into the NFL’s media universe. It’s a bigger riddle than football.