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New investigative newsroom launches at ASU's Howard Center for Investigative Journalism
A new investigative newsroom focusing on accountability reporting, innovation and experimentation with AI-driven tools launches today at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication as part of the Howard Center for Investigative Journalism.The Beam is a multimedia newsroom that produces in-depth, high-impact reporting on issues that matter to Arizona communities, while building modern tools for the public to engage directly with the decision-makers shaping their lives.
Ex-interim executive director of Wynwood Business Improvement District accused of theft
The former interim director of the Wynwood Business Improvement District is facing theft charges, authorities said.
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson on the city as a prime business and financial destination
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson on why his city is becoming one of the prime destinations for business and finance
Yellowstone nearing eruption as new study finds magma brimming below the surface: scientists
Hospitals offer chatbots to fight off ChatGPT
In this edition of STAT Health Tech: Hospitals offer their own chatbots, Medicare's ACCESS pilot, and an update Utah's 'AI doctor' experiment.
Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war
The Iran war was meant to deliver a defining victory over Tehran that would secure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's place in history. More than six weeks into the conflict, he has been unable to translate military might into political gain.
JD Vance heads to UGA amid crucial Georgia primary stretch
The Athens event is part of Turning Point USA's traveling college campus series, with Trump‑backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones also set to address students.
Scientists just recreated a rare cosmic reaction never seen before
A breakthrough experiment has shed new light on one of astrophysics’ biggest mysteries: the origin of rare proton-rich elements. For the first time, scientists directly measured a key reaction that creates selenium-74 using a rare isotope beam. The results sharpen models of how these elements form in supernova explosions, cutting uncertainty in half. But the findings also reveal gaps in current theories, hinting that the story isn’t complete yet.
Inertia moves to commercialize one of the world’s most elaborate science experiments
Inertia has signed three agreements with the Lawrence Livermore National Lab, paving the way for the company to bring its pioneering fusion reactor to market.
Orbán’s Election Defeat Resonates in Washington, Tel Aviv
Vance praised Orbán’s 16-year tenure as “transformational,” portraying him as a key ally who challenged European Union policies.
Carney didn’t win a majority, he built one. Now comes the test.
Now that Canada's prime minister has control of Parliament, here's what he's going to do with it.
Canada’s Carney Secures Majority Mandate After Electoral Wins, Political Defections
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has secured a majority government, cementing his hold on power after electoral victories Monday night and defections to his Liberal Party caucus over the past six months.
Trump and MAGA Embraced Orban. Now, They’re Worried by His Loss in Hungary’s Election.
Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister, and his right-wing playbook were embraced by parts of the American right. Now some are worried by his defeat.
Vance Says Pope Leo Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs
The vice president, a Catholic, defended President Trump, who had accused the pope of being too liberal and “weak on crime.”The pontiff responded that he had “no fear of the Trump administration.”
Congressional candidate Jack Schlossberg thinks Democrats need a makeover
He told NY1 that thinks he can come out on top of a crowded Democratic primary field to represent parts of Manhattan.
NOAA Fisheries report highlights severe economic decline in Gulf shrimp fishery
NOAA Fisheries reveals a sharp and ongoing economic decline in the U.S. Gulf shrimp fishery, underscoring growing challenges for one of the nation’s historically important seafood industries.
Chesterfield high schoolers lead marine science experiment for kids
Students from Lloyd C Bird High School led a hands-on marine science experiment for students at Wells Elementary.
New Missouri health care hub aims to better integrate primary, behavioral care
Two Missouri healthcare organizations have collaborated to create a new healthcare center in Jefferson City.
Political newcomer running for Rep. Golden's seat in US House
At 29 years old, Paige Loud is the youngest candidate in the Democratic primary race for Maine's 2nd Congressional District.
Kim Kardashian makes her Broadway producing debut with the criminal justice play 'The Fear of 13'
Kim Kardashian is adding Broadway producer to her resume | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Kim Kardashian makes her Broadway producing debut with the criminal justice play 'The Fear of 13'
Kim Kardashian is adding Broadway producer to her resume | Talk Radio 1210 WPHT
Project 2025 author Paul Dans drops primary challenge to Lindsey Graham in South Carolina
Trump reacted to Dans' announcement with a social media post suggesting that Tucker Carlson's endorsement of Dans had been the "KISS OF DEATH” for his campaign.
Ketchup Entertainment Names Qube Wire As Primary Distribution Partner for Expanding Theatrical Slate, Led By Wide Release COYOTE VS. ACME
Ketchup Entertainment has appointed Qube Wire as its primary digital distribution partner across its expanding theatrical slate, led by Coyote vs. Acme, the company’s largest release to date, set for a nationwide wide rollout this summer. The slate will be immediately followed by Rolling Loud, starring Owen Wilson, Matt Rife, and Travis Scott, further cementing […]
Utah Royals FC Welcomes Dave Tenney as Senior Director of Player Health and Performance
HERRIMAN, Utah (Monday, April 13, 2026) – Utah Soccer President of Soccer Operations Jason Kreis - overseeing Utah Royals FC (National Women’s Soccer League), Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), Real Monarchs (MLS NEXT Pro) and the RSL Academy - has named highly-respected sports medicine veteran Dave Tenney as the
Access granted: CMS greenlights more than 150 participants for chronic care experiment
CMS greenlights more than 150 digital health companies for its ACCESS experiment, a new program for tech-backed chronic care with outcome-aligned payments.
R.I. Health and Human Services Secretary Richard Charest to retire
A plan for interim leadership will be announced before Charest’s retirement on July 3, Governor Dan McKee’s office said.
‘Consider it one more sign of the decline in the democratic experiment’
Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
How Orban Lost His Touch, and Hungary’s Election
The election defeat for Prime Minister Viktor Orban is less the result of an ideological shift in Hungary, and more the playing out of a fundamental rule of politics.
Baker Adventist Christian School reports a successful Science Fair
BAKER CITY — Experiments were done, ideas were heard, and fun was had at the ...Read More
Prediction markets have exploded. What can they tell us about Oregon’s hottest primary race?
The state of the Republican gubernatorial primary has been hard to divine, but gamblers have thoughts.
Jumbo Package: Who stood out at A Day?
Your latest Crimson Tide news and notes.
Political notes: 'Flowers' for the living, cupcakes for the interim birthday caucus
The farewell celebrations continue as the session nears the end, retiring from the House of Delegates comes with more than just some flowers and kind words and the large, but so far unseen, Interim Birthday Caucus gets its day, in political notes.
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States
Election loss for Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán has ripple effects for Trump, US conservatives
The big election over the weekend was in a small European country nearly half a world away from Washington, but the defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has significant reverberations in the United States.
Trump Attacks Pope Leo as Too Liberal and ‘Weak on Crime’
President Trump’s lengthy post on social media showed there were really no boundaries when it comes to people he might target, including the leader of the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics.
Michigan U.S. Senate 'primary storm' captivates, but worries Democrats
For decades, Democrats have avoided competitive primary contests to pick the party's nominees for U.S. Senate. That's not the case this year.
Breaking cover: the future of the business book
Authors are experimenting with new technology and formats to better communicate ideas
Trump attacks Pope Leo, taking credit for his election as bishop of Rome
President Trump wrote that Pope Leo XIV, the first U.S.-born pontiff, was “weak” and “terrible” on crime and foreign policy. Leo has criticized the Iran war.
Fantasy sports apps see increased usage by college students
In the past decade, the line between fantasy sports and sports betting has been blurred, propelling online sportsbooks and sportsbetting culture into the mainstream. Now, an increasing number of college students are latching on. Since the 1992 passing of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, shortened to PASPA, athletic leagues and lawmakers have fought...
Trump says Pope Leo is ‘terrible for foreign policy’
US President Donald Trump strongly criticized Pope Leo XIV on Truth Social on Sunday evening, claiming he is “weak on crime” and “terrible for foreign policy.”
End of the Orban Era: The Party Is Just Starting for Hungarians
In the end, the biggest surprise wasn’t just how resoundingly Viktor Orban was ejected from power but how swiftly the Hungarian prime minister conceded the termination of his 16-year reign.
How Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Narratives Are Shifting As Analysts Recut Targets And Takeover Nears
Golden Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been nudged from US$30.50 to US$30.00 per share, a small adjustment that still keeps the story focused around a US$30 mark. Some analysts view this US$0.50 trim as an incremental shift that reflects updated valuation inputs rather than a major change in the underlying outlook, while more cautious voices see it as a signal of reduced conviction at recent prices. As you read on, you will see how this updated target fits into the evolving analyst...
Viktor Orbán’s defeat ‘a defining moment’ in Europe. What comes next?
Orbán acknowledged Sunday that he was too far behind to stage a comeback against Péter Magyar, Hungary’s new prime minister.
Illinois Valley Community College’s SciFest returns April 17 with 100+ hands-on science experiments
Illinois Valley Community College will host its annual SciFest on April 17 at 7 p.m. in the College Gymnasium, featuring more than 100 interactive science demonstrations and experiments.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán ousted after 'painful' election result, ending 16 years in power
Hungarian voters on Sunday ousted long-serving Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power, rejecting the authoritarian policies and global far-right movement that he embodied in favor of a pro-European challenger.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat after 'painful' election result, ending 16 years in power
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán conceded defeat on Sunday after what he called a ″painful″ election result, ending 16 years in power.
Polling stations close in pivotal Hungary election that could unseat long-time Prime Minister Orbán
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
Early results in Hungary's election show opposition party leading and Prime Minister Orbán's trailing
Hungarians cast ballots Sunday in Europe's most consequential election this year, setting a record turnout in a vote that could unseat populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán after 16 years in power.
Weekly Briefing: Israel is losing its grip on U.S. politics
Support for Israel is collapsing in U.S. politics. The Iran war has fractured the MAGA base, military aid has become a Democratic litmus test, and AIPAC is losing primaries.
Health expert explains link between women's hormones, stress - and what to do about it
In honor of National Stress Awareness Month, health experts are drawing attention to the internal physiological shifts that contribute to rising stress levels in women, specifically menopause and perimenopause.
Apple made iOS users wait for the iPhone Fold only to get it wrong
Is the iPhone Fold destined to join the graveyard of Apple's niche experiments, alongside the iPhone mini and iPhone Plus?
GSK sees blockbuster potential in targeted cancer therapy after promising early data
British drugmaker GSK's experimental targeted cancer drug Mo-rez has blockbuster potential, its head of oncology research has told reporters, after early data showed the drug helped shrink tumors in patients with advanced, hard-to-treat cancers.
This Action Crime Thriller Just Shot to #1—and the Cast Is Absolutely Loaded
A star-studded crime thriller has quietly climbed to the top of Prime Video’s most-watched list, but, somehow, it flew completely under the radar. Find out more about the chart-topper here.
How to Reclaim Your Android's Original Speed in Under 10 Minutes
Your Android is capable of a massive speed boost, and it's time you took advantage of it.
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
Buy these 16 stocks that are primed to pop after Q1 earnings: Citi
Citi thinks investors should monitor these buy-rated stocks heading into earnings. The bank sees a post-earnings pop of 3% to 12% for stocks on the list.
MacBook Neo punches above its weight in Windows 11 gaming test
YouTuber ETA Prime has tested Windows 11 on the MacBook Neo through a virtualization app called Parallels. With full 3D hardware acceleration, the Apple A18 Pro SoC smoothly ran some Windows games on it as well.
Pastors Scott Bottoms, Victor Marx win spots in Colorado GOP’s gubernatorial primary at party assembly
Two pastors from Colorado Springs qualified Saturday for the Republican gubernatorial primary ballot at the Colorado GOP’s state assembly in Pueblo in a party meeting that dragged late into the night. State Rep. Scott Bottoms, who is known as one of the legislature’s most conservative members, won top line on the June ballot, while missionary […]
Life on Mars? Tiny cells just survived shock waves and toxic soil
Mars may be hostile, but it might not be entirely unlivable. In lab experiments, yeast cells survived simulated Martian shock waves and toxic perchlorate salts—two major environmental threats on the Red Planet. Their secret weapon was forming protective molecular clusters that shield critical cellular functions under stress. Without these defenses, survival plummeted, pointing to a potential universal strategy life could use beyond Earth.
Deion Sanders back on the field at Colorado's spring game
After a season that saw Colorado go 3-9, Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders, 58, was hands-on as he watched his team scrimmage on Saturday at the spring game, telling reporters that "I'm good, I'm good," after being diagnosed with bladder cancer last year.
Colorado's Deion Sanders eager to be more hands-on heading into next season after health concerns
Colorado coach Deion Sanders was hands-on as he watched his team scrimmage Saturday at the spring game.
No. 17 Yale Silences No. 5 Harvard’s Stars, Dominates 16-9 | Sports
No. 17 Yale Silences No. 5 Harvard’s Stars, Dominates 16-9 | Sports | The Harvard Crimson
Nintendo Prime: Nintendo is spreading fake information internally to patch leaks
Nintendo is an extremely secretive company but in recent weeks they’ve sprung some leaks and it isn’t the first time that it has happened. YouTuber Nintendo Prime says he has heard from his sources…
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Allegri explains Milan changes with new 4-3-3 experiment
Max Allegri explains how his Milan team changes with a 4-3-3 formation against Udinese and why they must ‘give Rafael Leao the right service’ as a centre-forward.It kicks off at San Siro at 17.00 ...
Radical Rob demonstrates fun science experiments on 'Fox & Friends Weekend'
Mad Science NYC & Westchester's chief mad scientist Rob Diaz demonstrates home experiments with the hosts of 'Fox & Friends Weekend.'
How To Get The Best Shield In ‘Crimson Desert’
The best weapons in Crimson Desert are more like the best Abyss Gears, but for shields? There is one that stands above the rest on its own.
‘It’s solid gold’: Some Texas Republicans ramp up criticisms of Muslims to energize primary voters
Running in a contentious race to keep his seat, US Sen. John Cornyn put out an ad vowing to fight “radical Islam.”
Fast ‘Crimson Desert’ Patch Adds New Moves, Shield Hiding And One Great Feature
There is yet another big Crimson Desert patch live from Pearl Abyss, not even a day after they announced a longer roadmap featuring some of these changes.
Pool at Altru Sports Complex will also house UND diving facility to simulate low gravity
The neutral buoyancy facility will be built under the floor of the pool's deep end and used for experiments, research and training in the space studies program.
Hungary’s Viktor Orban struggling for political survival ahead of vote
Hungarian prime minister and his Fidesz party face first closely contested polls in Sunday's parliamentary election.
A key criminal case could soon get tossed because of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche’s comments
As Todd Blanche takes the reins at the Justice Department, a federal judge is set to decide whether controversial remarks made last year by the now-acting attorney general should lead to the unravelling of one of the Trump administration’s marquee criminal cases.
Skyrim’s massive RP server that replaces NPCs with players just broke a new record
Skyrim’s massive new 750 player roleplay server is transforming the 2011 classic into something entirely unprecedented.
Peru's election: A battle for the Presidency amid political chaos and crime
With 35 candidates in the race, Peru is set to elect its 9th president in less than a decade. Amid rising corruption and crime, voters are left asking: Can this election finally break the cycle?
New Crimson Desert Patch Just Dropped With Many of the Improvements Pearl Abyss Said Were Due in the Coming Months, and Some It Hadn't Mentioned at All
Just a day after Pearl Abyss’ announcement of the various improvements it said were coming soon to Crimson Desert, we have a new patch that adds many of them already — and even a few changes fans hadn't expected.
Knox County Board of Education District 9 primary election voter's guide
Three candidates are vying to represent District 9: Brandy Jenkins, Kristi Kristy and William Sofield.
Commanders must achieve one primary goal in 2026 NFL Draft
The 2026 NFL Draft is rapidly approaching and it's clear what the Commanders need to accomplish.
Harvard Business School Expands AI Integration Across MBA Curriculum | News
Harvard Business School Expands AI Integration Across MBA Curriculum | News | The Harvard Crimson
Trump Likes to Back Winners in Foreign Elections. the Upcoming Vote in Hungary Will Test His Clout
WASHINGTON (AP) — In Hungary, President Donald Trump and his top officials used social media and an election-eve trip to Budapest to promote the country’s far-right prime minister in his reelection campaign. In Argentina, the U.S. administration worked to prop up the country’s financial markets to ...
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.
Inside Iowa Politics: Rob Sand’s plan to change elections
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand wants to change Iowa's primary election system.
Dark Matter Experiment Reaches Critical Milestone Deep Underground
Hundreds of times colder than outer space.
Fleming, Cassidy, Letlow
Treasurer John Fleming, left, Sen. Bill Cassidy, center, and Rep. Julia Letlow, right, are all running in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate.
Grim new economic numbers highlight how Trump is losing leverage against Iran
The week began with President Donald Trump saber-rattling like we’ve never seen before. He threatened apparent war crimes and to end a “whole civilization” if Iran didn’t meet his demands.
Pontiac Once Ran A Super Bowl Commercial Featuring An Option That Was Cancelled Almost Immediately Because The Suits Freaked Out
Super Bowl commercials have always been a big deal, right from the beginning. You have a massive captive audience, suitable primed on beer and nachos to be as suggestible as possible. That’s why carmakers have always been some of the most eager purchasers of Super Bowl ad time, and why they’ve tended to use it […]
Update on Proposed Dissolution of SBE Directorate at the National Science Foundation (NSF) -
On Friday, April 3, 2026, it was reported that interim leadership at the National Science Foundation announced during an internal all-staff meeting that they would preemptively start making moves to dissolve the SBE Directorate in [...]
Microsoft finally lets Windows 11 testers unlock experimental features without ViVeTool
The changes are part of the fix Windows 11 effort
Science finds surprising link between your martial status and risk of cancer
Married people tend to have greater financial stability and stronger social support, which can help them maintain healthier habits and get medical care earlier, researchers noted
Amazon Officially Phases Out Popular Ad-Free Streaming Service Plan
Prime Video tier changes.
FBI: Health care was top target for ransomware, other cyberthreats in 2025
Health care and public health was the top sector targeted for cyberthreats in 2025, according to the FBI’s latest annual report on internet crimes. There were 460 ransomware attacks and 182 data breaches, totaling 642 cyber events. Financial services was the next highest sector at 447 total events.
Interview: Rob McClure on the Unsettling Reality of SPARE PARTS – “This Isn’t Science Fiction. It’s Just Science.”
“Experimenting on yourself is insane. An experiment on a single person, with no controls, tells you nothing. It is incapable of predicting anything.” Or… is it? Such is the premise of Spare Parts, the darkly comedic and deeply twisted new drama currently shaking up Theatre Row through April 30th — and subverting our standards of what …Read more
Amazon launches ‘Prime Video Ultra’ with new features, higher price
Last month Amazon announced that Prime Video Ultra would be launching soon in the US, and that day has officially arrived.
‘Crimson Desert’ To Add 8 Big Player-Requested Additions Soon
Crimson Desert is listening to players and adding eight big new additions to the game over the next two months or so.
Prime Video Officially Replaces Ad Free Service With Ultra
It's officially the end of an era for Prime Video.
Crimson Desert is getting boss rematches, difficulty settings, and extra skills in upcoming updates
Pearl Abyss has outlined some of the new content and features coming to Crimson Desert in future free updates.
Hong Kong animal groups urge HKTVmall boycott over life science experiments
Online retailer facing major backlash after its parent company confirmed tests on pigs’ and sheep’s detached heads and limbs.