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Seals Are Seemingly Vanishing Off the Dutch Coast. These Scientists Are Trying to Get to the Bottom of the Mysterious Disappearances
Recent counts of the Wadden Sea’s adult harbor seal population have revealed a surprising trend of decline, prompting a consortium of researchers to investigate whether the animals are dying off, relocating or experiencing something else altogether
MIT's new brain tool could finally explain consciousness
Scientists still don’t know how the brain turns physical activity into thoughts, feelings, and awareness—but a powerful new tool may help crack the mystery. Researchers at MIT are exploring transcranial focused ultrasound, a noninvasive technology that can precisely stimulate deep regions of the brain that were previously off-limits. In a new “roadmap” paper, they explain how this method could finally let scientists test cause-and-effect in consciousness research, not just observe correlations.
At 82, he’s as fit as a 20-year-old. His body holds clues to healthy aging.
Scientists are studying Juan López García, 82, a world-record-holding ultramarathoner, to learn how we can stay healthy as we age.
At 82, he’s as fit as a 20-year-old. His body holds clues to healthy aging.
Scientists are studying Juan López García, 82, a world-record-holding ultramarathoner, to learn how we can stay healthy as we age.
'Textbooks will need to be updated': Jupiter is smaller and flatter than we thought, Juno spacecraft reveals
Jupiter is smaller and flatter than scientists previously thought, new measurements of the gas giant reveal.
Trump tried to gut science research funding. Courts and Congress have rebuffed him.
A year ago, federal support for scientific research appeared to be crumbling. But thanks to Congress and several lawsuits, scientists’ worst fears haven’t come to pass.
Junior scientists face a quandary when starting their own labs: How far to stray from the hive
A new study argues that overlap between advisers and advisees on research topics helps rather than hinders young life scientists.
Space tourism raises ‘urgent’ fertility questions, Nasa says
As more people travel beyond Earth, scientists have warned that the risks to reproductive health from zero-gravity and radiation remain little understood
This Breakthrough Lets Scientists See Arctic Ice Loss Coming
Scientists have unveiled a powerful new method for predicting Arctic sea ice months in advance, just as climate change drives rapid ice loss.
Scientists Explored an Island Cave and Found 1 Million-Year-Old Remnants of a Lost World
Up to 50 percent of species—which included 12 bird species and 4 frog species—on Aotearoa’s North Island went extinct before humans arrived
At science fair, UC Berkeley researchers lobby for $23B bond to offset Trump’s cuts
California scientists left their labs last week to defend their work studying disease treatments, resilience to extreme heat and more
'System in flux': Scientists reveal what happened when wolves and cougars returned to Yellowstone
Large carnivores are both clashing and coexisting in the western United States. Although wolves dominate cougars and steal their prey, cougars' shift from elk- to deer-heavy diets, paired with a rugged landscape for escape, might help cougars avoid violent wolf encounters.
How to live a meaningful life, according to science
The meaning of life has puzzled philosophers for millennia, but new research suggests it could be as simple as lending a helping hand
Menlo and a16z back AI scientist startup Phylo
Stanford researchers Kexin Huang and Yuanhao Qu launch Phylo, raising $13.5M from a16z and Menlo Ventures to develop Biomni Labs, an AI system for biomedical research tasks.
Top recognition awarded to 11 stroke researchers for science, brain health contributions
Embargoed until Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, 10 a.m. CT/11 a.m. ET NEW ORLEANS, Feb. 3, 2026 – Eleven top scientists in stroke and brain health will be recognized for their individual exceptional professional achievements and contributions to stroke and...
Top recognition awarded to 11 stroke researchers for science, brain health contributions
Embargoed until Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, 10 a.m. CT/11 a.m. ET NEW ORLEANS, Feb. 3, 2026 – Eleven top scientists in stroke and brain health will be recognized for their individual exceptional professional achievements and contributions to stroke and...
Why Nearby Galaxies Are Fleeing Us: Scientists Finally Solve a 50-Year Mystery
A flat plane of dark matter beyond the Local Group may explain why nearby galaxies move away from us instead of falling inward.
American high school student stuns scientists by mapping 1.5 million previously unknown space objects - Futura-Sciences
A young mind builds an AI breakthrough Matteo Paz, a student at Pasadena High School, joined the Planet Finder Academy in the summer of 2022. The program immerses students in real world astronomy challenges. Under the mentorship of Caltech scientist Davy Kirkpatrick at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center (IPAC),...
Autism: myth-busting and what scientists still don't know : Short Wave
Autism has a long history of misinformation that continues to today. The Trump administration has perpetuated some of this misinformation in the last year. Among other things, officials have claimed certain groups of people don’t get the condition and that taking Tylenol while pregnant causes autism to later develop in children. Today, NPR Science Correspondent Jon Hamilton sets the record straight with host Emily Kwong on what scientists do and don’t know about autism. If you liked this episode, check out our episodes on an Autism researcher’s take on Trump’s claims about Tylenol and a Fragile X treatment that may be on the horizon.Interested in more science in the news? Email us your question at shortwave@npr.org.Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.This episode was produced by Berly McCoy. It was edited by Rebecca Ramirez. Tyler Jones checked the facts. The audio engineer was Damian Herring.
Scientists just mapped the hidden structure holding the Universe together
Astronomers have produced the most detailed map yet of dark matter, revealing the invisible framework that shaped the Universe long before stars and galaxies formed. Using powerful new observations from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, the research shows how dark matter gathered ordinary matter into dense regions, setting the stage for galaxies like the Milky Way and eventually planets like Earth.
A record breaking gravitational wave is helping test Einstein’s theory of general relativity
A newly detected gravitational wave, GW250114, is giving scientists their clearest look yet at a black hole collision—and a powerful way to test Einstein’s theory of gravity. Its clarity allowed scientists to measure multiple “tones” from the collision, all matching Einstein’s predictions. That confirmation is exciting—but so is the possibility that future signals won’t behave so neatly. Any deviation could point to new physics beyond our current understanding of gravity.
Scientists release a map of the clearest picture yet of what dark matter looks like
Dark matter makes up most of the universe, yet we have very little understanding of it. Scientists recently released a map that gives the clearest picture yet of what dark matter looks like.
2-month-olds see the world in a more complex way than scientists thought, study suggests
The findings may help doctors and researchers better understand cognitive development in infancy.
Building Systems That Survive Real Life
Sara Nobrega on the transition from data science to AI engineering, using LLMs as a bridge to DevOps, and the one engineering skill junior data scientists need to stay competitive.
2-month-olds see the world in a more complex way than scientists thought, study suggests
A new study suggests that babies are able to distinguish between the different objects they see around them at 2 months old, which earlier than scientists previously thought.
Indirect Cost Caps: A Hidden Threat to American Science
Reductions in federal reimbursement rates for institutional research facilities and administration costs could bankrupt America’s research universities.
When Can I Trust What Scientists Say?
Claims are based on evidence, and different kinds and quantities of evidence provide different levels of confidence.
Scientists Found a Way to Regrow Cartilage Without Using Stem Cells
Scientists reversed joint damage in mice by reprogramming aging cartilage cells.
Scientists Warn: This “miracle cure” works only by damaging human cells
MMS has long been promoted as a miracle cure, but new research shows it’s essentially a toxic disinfectant. While it can kill bacteria, it only works at levels that also damage human cells and beneficial gut microbes. Scientists warn that homemade MMS mixtures are especially dangerous due to wildly inconsistent dosing. The study calls MMS a clear case where the risks are high—and the benefits are effectively zero.
Scientists are hunting for a forbidden antimatter transformation
MACE is a next-generation experiment designed to catch muonium transforming into its antimatter twin, a process that would rewrite the rules of particle physics. The last search for this effect ended more than two decades ago, and MACE plans to leap far beyond it using cutting-edge beams, targets, and detectors. A discovery would point to entirely new forces or particles operating at extreme energy scales.
DOE scientists blasted climate report ordered up by boss
Secretary Chris Wright handpicked five climate contrarians to write about global warming. Department experts pushed back on the findings.
Using generative AI to help scientists synthesize complex materials
Generative AI models have been used to create enormous libraries of theoretical materials that could help solve all kinds of problems. Now, scientists just have to figure out how to make them. In many ...
How generative AI can help scientists synthesize complex materials
DiffSyn, a computer model developed by MIT researchers, suggests promising ways to synthesize new materials for faster experimentation.
'They've probably been untouched for 49 million years': The New Mexico cave expanding our search for alien life
In one of the most baffling discoveries of the last decade, scientists have found a clue in a cave to how life might survive in deep space without light.
Help scientists document Midwest light pollution by looking at Orion
More people participating in the citizen science project Globe At Night could help fill gaps in what astronomers know about the extent of skyglow.
VASVIK's Annual Industrial Research Awards: Celebrating Indian scientists for their innovation and achievements
VIVIDHLAXI AUDYOGIK SAMSHODHAN VIKAS KENDRA (VASVIK) hosted its 51st Annual Industrial Research Awards on January 31, 2026, at B. J. Hall, Vile Parle (West), Mumbai. BK Radhika Didi, Brahma Kumari, and Lord Dr Frank Mentrup, Mayor of Karlsruhe, Germany, honoured the event as Chief Guests.
Do scientists follow the data
Personal feelings about immigration subtly influenced how 71 teams of academics analysed the same figures in a study
Scientists’ political views change how they interpret identical data
Personal feelings about immigration subtly influenced how 71 teams of academics analysed the same figures in a study
Deflated: Israeli scientists find Jupiter is smaller than previously thought
Using data from NASA's Juno spacecraft, Weizmann Institute of Science researchers make most precise measurement to date, say the gas giant is thinner and flatter than believed
750-year-old Indian poems reveal a landscape scientists got wrong
Old Indian poems and folk songs are revealing a surprising truth about the land. Scientists found that descriptions of thorny trees and open grasslands in texts written as far back as the 1200s closely match today’s savannas in western India. This suggests these landscapes are ancient and natural—not ruined forests. The discovery could reshape how conservation and tree-planting efforts are planned.
Alzheimer’s scrambles memories while the brain rests
When the brain rests, it usually replays recent experiences to strengthen memory. Scientists found that in Alzheimer’s-like mice, this replay still occurs — but the signals are jumbled and poorly coordinated. As a result, memory-supporting brain cells lose their stability, and the animals struggle to remember where they’ve been.
“Existential risk” – Why scientists are racing to define consciousness
Scientists warn that rapid advances in AI and neurotechnology are outpacing our understanding of consciousness, creating serious ethical risks. New research argues that developing scientific tests for awareness could transform medicine, animal welfare, law, and AI development. But identifying consciousness in machines, brain organoids, or patients could also force society to rethink responsibility, rights, and moral boundaries. The question of what it means to be conscious has never been more urgent—or more unsettling.
Scientists finally may know why kidney patients die of heart disease
More than half of people with advanced kidney disease develop cardiovascular problems. A new study finds that diseased kidneys release tiny particles that are toxic to the heart.
The best new popular science books of February 2026
Readers are spoiled for choice when it comes to popular science reading this month, with new titles by major names including Maggie Aderin and Michael Pollan
Is it really possible to 'bank' sleep for later?
From helping you to focus more to improving sports performance, some scientists believe 'depositing' sleep for later use can bring a range of benefits.
World Laureates Summit: Can science give a blueprint for our future?
In a landmark convergence of intellect and governance, the World Laureates Summit (WLS) opens on Sunday in Dubai, gathering over 150 of the world's most eminent scientists, policymakers, and institutional leaders.Convened alongside the 2026 World Governments
Scientists discover how to turn gut bacteria into anti-aging factories
Researchers found that small doses of an antibiotic can coax gut bacteria into producing a life-extending compound. In worms, this led to longer lifespans, while mice showed healthier cholesterol and insulin changes. Because the drug stays in the gut, it avoids toxic side effects. The study points to a new way of promoting health by targeting microbes rather than the body itself.
Scientists discover hidden geometry that bends electrons like gravity
Researchers have discovered a hidden quantum geometry inside materials that subtly steers electrons, echoing how gravity warps light in space. Once thought to exist only on paper, this effect has now been observed experimentally in a popular quantum material. The finding reveals a new way to understand and control how materials conduct electricity and interact with light. It could help power future ultra-fast electronics and quantum technologies.
A $40 Billion Idea to Keep One Glacier From Flooding the Earth
Scientists have long opposed polar geoengineering. Some now believe it will be necessary.
Scientists finally explain statin muscle pain
Statins are a cornerstone of heart health, but muscle pain and weakness cause many patients to quit taking them. Scientists have now identified the precise molecular trigger behind these side effects. They found that statins jam open a critical muscle protein, causing a toxic calcium leak. The discovery could lead to safer statins that keep their life-saving benefits without the muscle damage.
Ancient tools in China are forcing scientists to rethink early humans
Archaeologists in central China have uncovered evidence that early humans were far more inventive than long assumed. Excavations at the Xigou site reveal advanced stone tools, including the earliest known examples of tools fitted with handles in East Asia, dating back as far as 160,000 years. These discoveries show that ancient populations in the region carefully planned, crafted, and adapted their tools to meet changing environments.
How gene loss and monogamy built termite mega societies
Termites did not evolve complex societies by adding new genetic features. Instead, scientists found that they became more social by shedding genes tied to competition and independence. A shift to monogamy removed the need for sperm competition, while food sharing shaped who became workers or future kings and queens. Together, these changes helped termites build colonies that can number in the millions.
Student scientists share findings at 25th High School Science & Engineering Fair
Three hundred students from Westfield HIgh School and Westfield Technical Academy presented their science and engineering projects in the WHS auditorium to over 100 judges; scientists, industry professionals and educators with backgrounds in science and engineering at the 25th annual High School Science and Engineering Fair on Jan. 29.
What 20 years of Arctic report cards can tell us about our changing planet
In 2006, scientists released the first version of the Arctic Report Card, now a staple at the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
How PFAS harm our health — and why they’re everywhere
What do non-stick pans, firefighting foam and many of our couches, carpets and cosmetics have in common? They’re all made with PFAS. The so-called forever chemicals helped spur innovation, but they’re also insidious to human health. Horizons moderator William Brangham explores these chemicals and how we can protect ourselves with investigative journalist Mariah Blake and scientist Laurel Schaider.
How PFAS harm our health — and why they're everywhere
What do non-stick pans, firefighting foam and many of our couches, carpets and cosmetics have in common? They’re all made with PFAS. The so-called forever chemicals helped spur innovation, but they’re also insidious to human health. Horizons moderator William Brangham explores these chemicals and how we can protect ourselves with investigative journalist Mariah Blake and scientist Laurel Schaider.
Scientists Identified a New Blood Group After 50-Year Mystery
A medical breakthrough that could save lives.
Scientists Discover Living Bacteria Hidden Inside the #1 Type of Kidney Stone
Scientists have uncovered an unexpected biological factor hidden within the most common type of kidney stone.
Scientists discover molecule in space that hints at origin of life
A 13-atom molecule containing sulfur has been discovered in interstellar space for the first time, providing insight into the origins of the chemistry of life.
Oops, Scientists May Have Severely Miscalculated How Many Humans Are on Earth
While most estimates place the current human population at around 8.2 billion, a new study suggests we might be vastly underrepresenting rural areas.
Scientists take first look inside one of world’s most extreme engines
Scientists used optical diagnostic techniques to 'see inside' solid-fuel ramjets, one of the most extreme engines in the world.
The best new science fiction books of February 2026
We pick the sci-fi novels we’re most looking forward to reading this month, from a new Brandon Sanderson to the latest from Makana Yamamoto
Gray wolves are hunting sea otters and no one knows how
On a remote Alaskan island, gray wolves are rewriting the rulebook by hunting sea otters — a behavior few scientists ever expected to see. Researchers are now uncovering how these coastal wolves adapted to marine hunting, what it means for land–sea ecosystems, and whether this ancient predator–prey relationship is re-emerging as sea otters recover.
Genes play a big part in driving lifespan, scientists find
How long a person lives may not only be down to their lifestyle - but their genetic makeup too, research suggests.
Can Science Still Afford Serendipity?
Serendipitous observations have shaped science for centuries. What happens to such discoveries when the academic atmosphere leaves no room for detours?
Fundamentals of healthcare delivery science for the non-health systems scientist: the final step in translational research for late-life psychiatric and neurocognitive disorders
Neuropsychopharmacology - Fundamentals of healthcare delivery science for the non-health systems scientist: the final step in translational research for late-life psychiatric and neurocognitive...
Fundamentals of healthcare delivery science for the non-health systems scientist: the final step in translational research for late-life psychiatric and neurocognitive disorders
Neuropsychopharmacology - Fundamentals of healthcare delivery science for the non-health systems scientist: the final step in translational research for late-life psychiatric and neurocognitive...
A 20-year-old cancer vaccine may hold the key to long-term survival
Two decades after a breast cancer vaccine trial, every participant is still alive—an astonishing result for metastatic disease. Scientists found their immune systems retained long-lasting memory cells primed to recognize cancer. By enhancing a key immune signal called CD27, researchers dramatically improved tumor elimination in lab studies. The findings suggest cancer vaccines may have been missing a crucial ingredient all along.
How scientists are making the power of invisibility a reality
“In my opinion, invisibility is no longer a science fiction concept.”
The secret to long life? It could be in the genes after all, say scientists
New study into ‘heritability’ shows that 50% of the variation in human lifespan could be down to genetics
The chemical genius of Katharine Burr Blodgett
The story of a woman whose discoveries in materials science quietly shape our everyday world but whose legacy was long eclipsed by the famous scientist she worked with at the General Electric Company
Polar bears getting "fatter and healthier" amid ice loss
Scientists think that Svalbard bears have adapted to recent ice loss by eating more land-based prey.
Scientists use AI to crack the code of nature’s most complex patterns 1,000x faster
Order doesn’t always form perfectly—and those imperfections can be surprisingly powerful. In materials like liquid crystals, tiny “defects” emerge when symmetry breaks, shaping everything from cosmic structures to everyday technologies. Now, researchers have developed an AI-powered method that can predict how these defects will form and evolve in milliseconds instead of hours. By learning directly from data, the system accurately maps molecular alignments and complex defect behavior, even in situations where defects merge or split.
Scientists found a way to cool quantum computers using noise
Quantum computers need extreme cold to work, but the very systems that keep them cold also create noise that can destroy fragile quantum information. Scientists in Sweden have now flipped that problem on its head by building a tiny quantum refrigerator that actually uses noise to drive cooling instead of fighting it. By carefully steering heat at unimaginably small scales, the device can act as a refrigerator, heat engine, or energy amplifier inside quantum circuits.
How Do Climate Scientists Use Artificial Intelligence?
The AI used in climate research right now is much less energy intensive than the large language models like ChatGPT.
The accidental climate scientist who uncovered an unexpected force of global warming
The Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences has awarded the Crafoord Prize to climate scientist Veerabhadran Ramanathan. He discovered a powerful force of global warming.
A potentially habitable new planet has been discovered 146 light-years away – but it may be -70C
The Earth-size planet HD 137010 b has a ‘50% chance of residing in the habitable zone’ of its sun-like star, scientists say
Tiny mammals are sending warning signs scientists can finally read
Small mammals are early warning systems for environmental damage, but many species look almost identical, making them hard to track. Scientists have developed a new footprint-based method that can tell apart nearly indistinguishable species with remarkable accuracy. Tested on two types of sengi, the system correctly identified them up to 96% of the time. It offers a simple, ethical way to monitor ecosystems before they quietly unravel.
These two viruses may become the next public health threats, scientists say
Two emerging pathogens with animal origins—influenza D virus and canine coronavirus—have so far been quietly flying under the radar, but researchers warn conditions are ripe for the viruses to spread ...
America’s biggest science loss: federal government loses over 10,000 STEM PhD scientists in 2025 | - The Times of India
Science News: The US federal government suffered one of the most severe losses of scientific expertise in its modern history in 2025, with more than 10,000 STEM PhD.
Roadkill is a surprising and untapped source for scientists
Millions of animals unfortunately die on roads each year, but the casualties hold important data.
How your health is being commodified by social media
From heath tech developers to influencers, our health is being monetised – and we need to be aware of what's going on, says Deborah Cohen
As the Trump administration targets NCAR, scientists rally to defend the ‘mothership’ of atmospheric research
A letter published by the National Science Foundation asks for ideas to dismantle the research hub. Scientists are responding en masse.
Arctic scientists 'feel pretty uncomfortable' on Greenland
Science in the Arctic — and Greenland — is on the frontline of pressing challenges facing humanity, like climate change and genetics. Some researchers worry international collaboration is at risk.
Hidden struggles: Cambridge scientists share the truth behind their success
In a career defined by constant questioning, self-doubt can become an occupational hazard. Now, for the first time, a group of Cambridge scientists reveal the personal struggles they’ve faced – and continue to face – as they strive for success.
Scientists turn tumor immune cells into cancer killers
Scientists at KAIST have found a way to turn a tumor’s own immune cells into powerful cancer fighters—right inside the body. Tumors are packed with macrophages, immune cells that should attack cancer but are usually silenced by the tumor environment. By injecting a specially designed drug directly into tumors, researchers were able to “reprogram” these dormant cells to recognize and destroy cancer.
Investment and Statecraft: The International Politics of Sovereign Wealth Funds - Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
In 1953, Kuwait established the world’s first sovereign wealth fund to invest the country’s oil revenues and generate returns that would reduce its reliance on a single resource. Since then, over 100 separate funds have been created to preserve national wealth and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. Today, they manage over $10 trillion in global assets. In this discussion with GJIA, political economist Kathryn Lavelle explains the increasingly novel dynamics that surround fund behavior and what the world can come to expect from their growing presence in international financial markets. GJIA: When it comes to the roles sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) play in global markets and politics, what would you say makes them unique? Kathryn Lavelle: Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) operate on behalf of governments as investors. That in itself is a strange relationship. Within them, a core contest takes place between the state’s interests (or sovereign) part of the dynamic, and the money interests (or wealth) part of it, and these two aspects are frequently in contradiction, serving fundamentally different goals. SWFs are also quite fascinating because when you talk to the people who manage these funds, they have an interest in convincing you that the decisions are made almost exclusively on a financial basis—they really will go to great lengths to differentiate their government owners and those who make the management decisions. At the same time, these people ultimately answer to someone in power. Therefore, for most SWFs, it remains deeply unclear who is actually making the investment decisions and for what purposes. Of course, it is not always clear how other vehicles, such as hedge funds and private equity make the decisions they do, but I think what a lot of people find particularly disconcerting about SWFs is that they seem to act on behalf of people who have a different identity from their own. People who could be trying to manipulate politics and markets in a way that would have a long-term effect on their own populations. Regular investors come and go at will, and they only share an interest in profit as far as most of us understand. However, SWFs have that extra “sovereign” part right behind them that obscures their true interest. GJIA: These funds can be found in countries all across the globe, in both authoritarian states and democracies. Would you say SWFs differ in their goals and structures between regime-type? KL: It is not necessarily regime type that makes the goals and structures of SWFs different. It has to do with their economies. Let’s look at a country like China. There’s going to be a debate about exactly how to characterize the regime, but it is a country with many different kinds of sovereign wealth funds, and a particularly opaque state connection to each. At one time, some of the state-owned Chinese oil companies created specialized investment vehicles listed outside Chinese markets that excluded parts of the firms that were more associated with human rights violations. At the same time, the China Investment Corporation (CIC)—China’s largest SWF—draws a lot of concern, not necessarily because of its investment activities, but because of the dynamics of global politics. So, I wouldn’t really tie differences to regime types themselves in a wholesale way, but rather to how such funds are perceived and how they are structured. Saudi Arabia’s SWF is getting all kinds of attention for its involvement in Hollywood, and this takes me right back to when I was a student in the 1980s, when people were concerned about Japanese investment entities buying assets in Hollywood. They aren’t quite the same in financial terms, but it’s the same kind of concern about foreign investment that drives people to be suspicious, and the whole idea that “foreigners are influencing Hollywood.” This holds true across industries, and it reflects where politics are in places like the United States right now. One metric we can try to look at is transparency, where all the funds will tell you, “we are transparent.” The problem you’ll keep running into with this approach is how you value things. When trying to do comparative studies of equity markets, you’ll find that every country doesn’t use Generally Accepted Accounting Principles like we do in the United States. A fund may appear opaque politically and not want people to show what they’re invested in or what their intent with that investment is, but they could also just not be able to report it because of the way it was purchased, or the kinds of shares they purchased. There are some assets out there that really are difficult to put a monetary value on. GJIA: To what extent do domestic politics shape SWF behavior in both the investing “home” country and the recipient “host” country? KL: This depends on the type of fund present and also on the extent to which voters’ political views are able to influence the fund. For example, in a democratic home state like Norway, the SWF doesn’t invest in nuclear weapons or tobacco because of social concerns, but there is a continuing debate over whether it should invest in oil, even though that’s where most of the money comes from. The degree to which Norway will continue to make those investments, and whether they contradict the government’s overall climate goals, is an open question in Norwegian politics. Because of the way the fund’s governance is structured, it may not be easy to resolve. On the other hand, some people consider pension funds, like the State Teachers Retirement System (STRS) in Ohio, to be quasi-SWF. They have a very strict separation between the people who make up the management division and the fund owners. No teacher or professor would want to invest in things that may harm the future of their students. At the same time, a fund manager might see an opportunity in a diversified multinational corporation that offers a good return, despite it deriving part of its revenue from e-cigarettes. These contests are very apparent. Domestic politics can work in host countries too. A good example is Singapore’s SWF, Temasek, investing in Thailand’s telecommunications sector. If you study political economy, you already know that countries everywhere are uncomfortable with foreign ownership of their telecom sectors because a foreign entity could monitor or manipulate our communications with each other. In the case of Temasek, there was significant pushback from Thai citizens surrounding the deal, which went on to influence national political sentiment toward Singapore as a whole, underscoring the risks some SWFs may face with their investment choices. In this case, fund behavior led to the dissolution of the entire Thai government in 2006 and a subsequent coup d’état. GJIA: To address some of this unease, the Santiago Principles were established in 2009 to ostensibly promote trust and transparency. From your perspective, have these mechanisms actually changed fund behavior? KL: In international relations theory, we always like to have a clear set of norms and best practices—the orientation we want the proverbial ship to be going in. In that regard, the Santiago Principles at least got the discussion going about which direction SWFs should take at a time when people were very skittish about the growing size of these funds. Nobody wanted them to be out there and potentially destabilizing economies, so talks about disclosure, conditions for withdrawal, and the independence of managers were helpful when initiated. The biggest stumbling block was that there wasn’t exactly a good way to measure compliance with the Principles, let alone how to hold funds to them. If you read the Principles, they’re overall quite vague. In general, a fund doesn’t want to reveal how and why they make certain investment decisions because that information is proprietary—a fund makes money off of how and why it makes decisions—so how do you reconcile that with loosely-defined ideas of openness? Some decisions might have a political purpose. The bottom line is that trying to figure out and assign a score to compliance is not easy, and it is therefore the reason why the Santiago Principles never really got off the ground to the point where they could truly direct fund behavior. GJIA: Many emerging markets are looking to build their own SWFs from mineral and oil revenues. Historically, have funds shaped development trajectories in these countries? KL: I think the big story in international emerging markets investment is that the investment is increasingly no longer unidirectional. In the past multinational corporations of primarily Western background were the main form of foreign direct investment in a country. That has changed dramatically, to the point where you have companies from so-called “developing countries” taking over companies in the United States. Therefore, the landscape of international investment has changed, and I think SWFs are certainly a possibility to be the next step in the game. Historically, you didn’t need an entire financial vehicle to reinvest commodity revenues in your country, but as emerging markets get more financially sophisticated, their capacity to operate such funds has increased. SWFs would allow treasuries to move from relying on holding foreign exchange assets like cash or government bonds to having broader financial markets and targeted growth areas, while easing pressure on welfare expenditures. GJIA: With their increasing financial weight, do you see the presence of SWFs being a factor in the political choices leaders will have to make with regard to domestic and foreign policy? KL: It will depend on just how big the funds get. One of the reasons people are already apprehensive is because of their scale, and if certain SWFs in certain countries achieve a large-enough size, the presence will absolutely be cause for concern. The other factor political leaders will have to consider are their objectives. It’s not always clear how to define a SWF, or even where its activity is concentrated, but it is certainly a worry from the perspective of national security of opaque external investment. More than that, I think one of the most interesting questions going forward is whether the United States, the home to the world’s largest financial markets, will develop its own fund, for which the Trump administration announced a plan. There have also been several proposals in Congress. Were it to come into being, it would have tremendous weight. At the same time, one of the hallmarks of U.S. capitalism is a lack of government ownership of shares, so it would not be clear how such a fund would be received in domestic politics, or which direction it would take. Given how politically fragmented the country is, a Democratic administration would likely be concerned about different sectors of the economy, such as healthcare, and want investment there, rather than a Republican administration, which might prefer defense industries. No investment vehicle could thrive under conditions of such instability. Moreover, it remains unclear where the money to fund a theoretical U.S. SWF would come from. It would be a fundamentally different entity depending on whether it is financed with debt, economic surplus, commodities, or the sale of state companies, as in the case of Singapore. If it is debt, or government borrowing of some form, then the fund would have to outperform whatever the cost of that debt is, which is not an easy thing to do. I think our political leaders have enough on their plate. Our system has worked well keeping political and investment functions generally separate. We have seen different forms of business rise and fall, and even the perception of different countries, all of which funds are tied to. Unless a major SWF either starts—like in the case of the United States—or collapses—an issue that concerns the Saudis, I don’t see any political tsunamis on the horizon. . . . Kathryn Lavelle is the Ellen and Dixon Long Professor of World Affairs at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio. Her research explores the exchange between domestic and international and political institutions with a particular emphasis on political economy and multilateralism. Dr. Lavelle’s first book, The Politics of Equity Finance in Emerging Markets, explored the political circumstances that surround large issues of stock in the developing world. After being granted tenure at Case Western, she was awarded an American Political Science Association Congressional Fellowship and named the William A. Steiger fellow, a designation given to the most promising political scientist in her class of fellows. While in Washington during 2006-2007, she worked on the staff of the House Committee on Financial Services on issues related to domestic and international monetary policy. Dr. Lavelle holds a PhD in political science from Northwestern University; an M.A. in government and foreign affairs from the University of Virginia; and a bachelor’s degree in international economics from Georgetown University. She is a permanent member of the New York Council on Foreign Relations. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and length. Interview conducted by Sid Mehrotra. Image Credit: Jason Leung, Unsplash Content Licenses, via Unsplash
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