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City council approves land purchase for a new North Downtown pro soccer stadium and entertainment district
The city council voted 7-0 to purchase land for a new 11-acre professional soccer stadium and entertainment district in North Downtown
Reno Pro Soccer's $350M entertainment district 'The Boulevard Reno' includes hotel/casino
The group behind Reno Pro Soccer's attempt to build a first-of-its-kind soccer stadium in Northern Nevada has submitted a pre-planning application for its ambit
Reno Pro Soccer's $350M entertainment district 'The Boulevard Reno' includes hotel/casino
The group behind Reno Pro Soccer's attempt to build a first-of-its-kind soccer stadium in Northern Nevada has submitted a pre-planning application for its ambit
Reno Pro Soccer's $350M entertainment district 'The Boulevard Reno' includes hotel/casino
The group behind Reno Pro Soccer's attempt to build a first-of-its-kind soccer stadium in Northern Nevada has submitted a pre-planning application for its ambit
LIVE SCORE UPDATES & ANALYSIS: Arkansas baseball vs. UAPB
Follow along as the Razorbacks play the Golden Lions at Dickey-Stephens Park in North Little Rock.
The best linen pants for women
After testing over a dozen linen pants, we found the best pairs for work, travel, petites, and more that feel breathable, polished, and worth the money.
Colorado lawmakers set to debate bill to keep sex offenders out of mental health facilities near schools
Colorado lawmakers were set to discuss a bill that would keep sex offenders from being admitted to mental health facilities near schools after a Northglenn community's repeated attempts for safeguards.
City Council proposes entertainment district for downtown DeKalb
DeKALB -– On Monday, the City Council discussed a proposed entertainment district downtown, allowing patrons to carry beverages from one place to another to increase activity in the evening hours. If the proposal is passed, bars and restaurants would have the opportunity to join this district and would be marked with a sign indicating their...
WTOV9 Senior Expo scores big with turnout at The Highlands Sports Complex
The 5th WTOV9 Senior Expo proved to be another success on Tuesday.More than 50 vendors welcomed north of 1,000 people at The Highlands Sports Complex.Among many
Expedition 74 Opens Cygnus XL and Unpacks Advanced Science Gear
The hatches are open between Northrop Grumman’s second Cygnus XL cargo spacecraft and the International Space Station following its robotic capture and installation on Monday. The Expedition 74 crew is now beginning to unload some of the new science and crew supplies delivered on Monday.
PNB’s ‘Giselle’ arguably one of the best to see
Pacific Northwest Ballet’s lively and rigorous reconstruction of “Giselle" is onstage through April 19.
24,000 Years After Being Frozen In The Siberian Permafrost, This Ancient Creature Woke Up And Began To Reproduce
Scientists thawed the ancient sample from the Alazeya River in northeastern Siberia, and to their surprise, the creature woke up.
Diaspora MKE Sports Bar & Lounge making grand opening on 414 Day
Diaspora MKE Sports Bar and Lounge is making its grand opening from 5 to 7 p.m. April 14.
Where Columbus Blue Jackets' playoff drought ranks among pro sports
The Columbus Blue Jackets missed the NHL playoffs for a sixth straight year. See where their drought ranks in the NHL and North American sports.
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Jon Prosser Still Not Fully Cooperating in Apple's iOS 26 Trade Secrets Lawsuit
A joint status report filed yesterday in Apple's trade secrets lawsuit against YouTuber Jon Prosser and Michael Ramacciotti shows Prosser is still failing to comply with discovery, prompting Apple to seek a court order to compel him. The latest filing, submitted to the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California yesterday, covers developments since the parties' last update in February 2026.
Help us help you: Take the FEDC 2026 Business Climate Survey
The Fairbanks Economic Development Corporation is working with Information Insights this spring to assess the health and trajectory of the economy of the Fairbanks North Star Borough and broader Interior
Mushrooming business: MTI grant helping spark expansion at North Spore
There’s been “a real increase in demand from customers wanting to grow mushrooms outdoors in their gardens” with over 20% growth in that category, said North Spore’s president.
Toilet tech is the next frontier of health data — but it might mean putting a camera on your bowl
The Post tried three of the latest toilet health trackers to see if they're worth opening your wallet — and your bathroom door.
TPG to Acquire Learfield, the Leading College Sports Media Sales and Technology Provider
Investment to support continued transformation of college sports and live entertainment through digital and physical sports IP, brand sponsorship, and fan engagement solutions DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO & FORT WORTH, TEXAS – TPG, a leading global alternative asset management firm, today announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Learfield, the nation’s leading media and […]
TPG to Acquire Learfield, the Leading College Sports Media Sales and Technology Provider
Investment to support continued transformation of college sports and live entertainment through digital and physical sports IP, brand sponsorship, and fan engagement solutions DALLAS, SAN FRANCISCO & FORT WORTH, TEXAS – April 14, 2026 – TPG, a leading global alternative asset management firm, today announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire Learfield, the […]
How Trump’s ultimatum on DEI divided a Texas city
The debate in Fort Worth echoes a dilemma that local leaders are grappling with around the country: End diversity programs or risk losing all federal funding.
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Its Recent Name Change And Share Price Rebound
Why Six Flags Entertainment Is Back On Investors’ Radar Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has been reshaped by its July 2024 name change from Cedar Fair, putting fresh attention on a business that runs amusement parks, water parks, and resorts across North America. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. Recent trading has been lively, with a 30 day share price return of 22.89% and a 90 day gain of 25.00%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.98% and 5 year total...
NKY Chamber's Business Councils announce achievement award winners, celebrated May 21
The Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce Business Councils have announced the winners of the Business Achievement Awards, which recognize outstanding member businesses in Erlanger, Florence, Fort Thomas, and Newport, for their achievements and contributions to their respective communities. The awards will be presented during the Business Council Celebration Dinner on Thursday, May 21, at Turfway...
High school sports results for Monday, April 13, 2026
MONDAY’S RESULTS Baseball CITY LEAGUE Obama Academy 14, Carrick 0 (5) WPIAL CLASS 6A Section 1 North Allegheny 6, Central Catholic 1 North Hills...
TPG Agrees to Buy Learfield in Deal Worth Roughly $2 Billion
Learfield’s majority owners—Charlesbank Capital Partners and funds managed by Fortress Investment Group—hired two banks in the fall to explore a sale.
BETMGM Q1 2026 BUSINESS UPDATE
BetMGM LLC ("BetMGM"), a leading sports betting and iGaming operator across North America, jointly owned by MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM) ("MGM Resorts") and Entain plc (LSE: ENT)...
I regret putting my kids in so many structured activities
I felt pressure to sign my kids up for a lot of activities when they were younger. The time, expense, and stress wasn't worth it.
Gateway to Science is all in on space
The North Dakota Gateway to Science is all in on space exploration and doing what it can to promote STEM education and future Artemis missions.
GFWAR: The Missing Middle - Why Attainable Housing Matters for Fort Worth’s Business Community
Learn more about attainable housing in this sponsored article by Greater Fort Worth Association of REALTORS.
Morgan Wallen’s Tuscaloosa show is this weekend: Secure last-minute ticket deals before they sell out
Country music star Morgan Wallen will be in Tuscaloosa, Alabama this weekend for the next stop on his Still The Problem North American tour. Concertgoers still looking for tickets can find limited seats available.
‘The Rookie’ Renewed for Season 9
And what's the latest about the new spinoff, 'The Rookie: North'?
Who was the best girls athlete on the Northshore for the week of April 5-11? Vote now!
Vote for who you think was the best girls athlete on the Northshore last week.
Hollywood heavyweights voice opposition to Paramount-Warner merger in letter
The deal is worth $111 billion
Northwestern Medicine provides guidance for improving Black maternal health
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says more than 80% of deaths related to pregnancy are preventable, and Black women are three times more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than white women.
Assessing Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) Valuation After Rebrand And Recent Share Price Momentum
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) has drawn investor attention after its recent rebranding from Cedar Fair, L.P. The newly named operator of amusement and water parks now reflects a unified identity across its North American properties. See our latest analysis for Six Flags Entertainment. The share price has climbed to US$19.94, with a 7 day share price return of 11.52% and a 30 day share price return of 24.70%. However, the 1 year total shareholder return of 38.07% and 5 year total shareholder...
France is replacing 2.5 million Windows desktops with Linux - and I mapped out its new stack
Officially, we don't know what France's forthcoming Linux desktop will look like, but this is what my sources and experience tell me to expect.
‘The Pitt’s Noah Wyle Reacts to Supriya Ganesh’s Shocking Exit
Wyle also explained why the decision was made to write Ganesh out of the show.
PBR | 2026 PBR World Finals: Unleash the Beast to bring nearly two weeks of Western-themed entertainment to Fort Worth from May 7–17
Celebration features live music, fan experiences, cultural events and the richest purse in bull riding.
Coffeehouse to feature music, Downeast humor, pie
Tim Joy and Bonnie Guerrette will entertain at a Coffeehouse at Hammond Hall in Winter Harbor on Friday, April 24, at 7 p.m.
Paris-Roubaix: How a brutal race still thwarts Tadej Pogagcar
Paris-Roubaix's remains elite's sport's most volatile journey of daring and dust. And the Hell of the North is the one race legend Tadej Pogacar still can't win.
North Shore Health continues CNA training program with new sessions
North Shore Health is continuing its certified nursing assistant (CNA) training program this spring, with a session scheduled from late April through July and another planned for September. The program includes 75 hours of training and provides students with opportunities to work near the end of the course. Participants can have their training costs covered...
5 live shows bring big‑name entertainment to Northern California
From Bollywood fusion to pop‑punk, reggae and comedy, here some of the top shows coming to Northern and Central California this month.
From dumplings to pickleball, check out these new North Jersey shops
Ugly Dumpling, Open Play Pickleball, a health care imaging clinic and a Khaadi fashion store at American Dream make our latest list of new businesses.
Northern Ireland swimmers ready to take on best in Commonwealth
BBC Sport NI looks at swimmers hoping to be confirmed as part of the Northern Ireland squad for the 2026 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow.
Shorthanded Celtics upset Magic in 113-108 stunner (PHOTOS)
The Boston Celtics needed just eight players to upset the Orlando Magic on Sunday night.
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film 'Hope' to be distributed by U.S. indie powerhouse NEON
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film “Hope” will be distributed in North America by the U.S. indie powerhouse distributor NEON, the movie’s co-producer, Plus M Entertainment, said on Monday.
Universities Allied for Essential Medicines advocates for affordable health care
While a vial of insulin takes as little as $2 to manufacture, it can cost consumers $250 in the United States. Universities Allied for Essential Medicines, an international advocacy organization that has chapters at universities including UCLA, raised awareness about medication unaffordability during its annual North American conference at the Neuroscience Research Building from April 3 to 5.
Northern Poll: Ohioans prioritize political civility despite future uncertainty
Ohioans find political incivility unacceptable but differ on optimism for the future.
Sunday Sports: Thousand Island Spirits still in need of a home and more
Here’s a recap of your North Country sports this Sunday.
Viktor Orbán’s defeat ‘a defining moment’ in Europe. What comes next?
Orbán acknowledged Sunday that he was too far behind to stage a comeback against Péter Magyar, Hungary’s new prime minister.
Connections: Build My Future comes to Rogers - Talk Business & Politics
More than 2,000 students from Northwest Arkansas were expected to attend the fifth annual Build My Future NWA Construction Career Day and Industry Showcase from 8:30 a.m. to 2 p.m....
Podcast provides in-depth coverage of area food, restaurant scene - Talk Business & Politics
John Engleman, a former sports anchor and director with over a decade of media relations experience, started a podcast to keep tabs on the ever-evolving food and restaurant sector in...
Staffing and pay concerns at the forefront of Sutter Health workers informational picket
Workers at Sutter Health hospitals in Northern California, including Sacramento, held an informational picket to highlight concerns about unsafe staffing and pay amid ongoing contract negotiations.
Xavier Zyskowski Commits To Bloomsburg For Soccer
The Official Source of North Allegheny Sports
Barricaded suspect involved in hit-and-run, placed on mental health hold
A 28-year-old Santa Clarita man was arrested on suspicion of hit-and-run, DUI and was placed on a mental health hold after being involved in a hit-and-run incident northbound Interstate 5 near San Fernando Mission, according to […]
North Tahoe Chamber selects Cory Hunt as its new Business Development Manager
KINGS BEACH, Calif. – The North Tahoe Chamber announced that Cory Hunt has been hired as its new Business Development Manager. Responsible for cultivating opportunities for new and emerging businesses in North Tahoe, Hunt will...
JPMorganChase Partners With Sports Legends to Help Athletes Master Their Money
Learn more about JPMorganChase's partnership with sport legends in this sponsored article by JPMorganChase.
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
This Action Crime Thriller Just Shot to #1—and the Cast Is Absolutely Loaded
A star-studded crime thriller has quietly climbed to the top of Prime Video’s most-watched list, but, somehow, it flew completely under the radar. Find out more about the chart-topper here.
10 Vintage Plates That Are Worth a Small Fortune
Vintage dining ware from these 10 makers has become highly collectible, often selling for thousands. See which creators' pieces are most valuable today.
Bob on Business: From riverfront residences to office/restaurant
Also, Go Texan grants; esports looks to score; real estate deals; and awards for area leaders, company.
Coffee and granola: How a uniquely Pittsburgh partnership is helping local businesses grow
Derek Davies never intended to return to Pittsburgh. He had one goal by the time he graduated from North Allegheny High School: “Get the hell out...
Sooo ... About Last Night
Last night (Sat., April 11, 2026), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventured forth to Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida for UFC 327. Was this the deepest numbered event since UFC 300? Maybe Jon Anik was onto something! There were great fights from top to bottom, like Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque on the early “Prelims” card. […]
Saturday Sports: The first Watertown girls’ flag football game and more
Here’s a recap of your North Country sports this Saturday.
Saturday Sports: The first Watertown girls’ flag football game and more
Here’s a recap of your North Country sports this Saturday.
Saturday Sports: The first Watertown girls’ flag football game and more
Here’s a recap of your North Country sports this Saturday.
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
State floats major mental health funding shift that could jeopardize North Bay mobile crisis teams
The proposed shift would shoulder counties with as much as $130 million annually to sustain the programs. For many, it would open a gap they can’t fill.
Here's why AirPods Pro 3 are more upgrade worthy than you may think
When AirPods Pro 3 initially debuted, I was a little bit hesitant about upgrading. I felt that AirPods Pro 2...
Brice Barnes raises six-figures in first day as candidate
The North Florida seat she seeks will be open in November.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Ted Yoho backs Paul Renner for Governor
A former Congressman from North Florida backs a former House Speaker in the Governor's race.
NASA Science, Cargo Launch Aboard Northrop Grumman CRS-24
NASA is sending more science, technology demonstrations, and crew supplies to the International Space Station following the successful launch of the agency’s
Why Warren Buffett Believes Book Value Cannot Capture a Business's Real Worth
With Berkshire Hathaway's book value per share over- or under-estimating the true value of its businesses, Warren Buffett prefers alternatives to this accounting metric.
Ahead of fishing opener, health officials update fish consumption guidelines
The new fish consumption guidelines include warnings about eating too much fish caught in northeastern Minnesota lakes and rivers, where fish tend to have higher mercury levels. And the state warns against consuming fish from the Vermillion River, south of the Twin Cities, because of PFAS contamination.
People Throw Away This Common Electronic Item Without Knowing It Holds 450MG of Pure 22-Carat Gold
You have almost certainly thrown this exact item in the trash without a second thought. Inside its forgotten shell sits a hidden payload of genuine 22-carat gold worth far more than the scrap value.
'Now is the time' for North West 200 debut
North West 200 newcomer Franco Bourne believes the time is right for him to make his international road race debut at the event in May.
Max Muncy hits three homers, lifts Dodgers on walk-off
LOS ANGELES — Max Muncy gave Dodger Stadium a finish worthy of the big screen Friday night.
Catawba Science Center celebrates Science Festival Month with 2 interactive events
April is North Carolina Science Festival Month, and Catawba Science Center will mark the occasion with two events focused on hands-on learning and exploration.
King County confirms measles case in infant; exposure risk in Bellevue and Seattle low
Public Health – Seattle & King County is warning of potential measles exposures in Bellevue, northeast Seattle, and on public transit after confirming a case in
Jelly Roll’s Blood Test Results Are a Wake-Up Call: What Blood Tests Should Your Family Actually Be...
Jelly Roll’s blood panel results stunned his doctors. If you manage your family’s health, his story is worth reading.
How are North Bay alums doing in college sports?
Checking in on athletes competing at the next level around the U.S.
Bath stage late rally to beat Northampton in classic
Bath come from 21 points down to beat Prem leaders Northampton 43-41 and reach the semi-finals of the Champions Cup in an incredible clash at the Rec.
America’s Car-Mart in Kirksville abruptly closes after 13 years in business
KIRKSVILLE, Mo. — A car dealership in northeast Missouri abruptly closed this week.
Wales Bonner Gives Adidas' Gazelle a New Rattlesnake Treatment
Wales Bonner is bringing a rattlesnake look to the Adidas Gazelle for its latest exotic sneaker collaboration. Find out more on the forthcoming collection here.
NFL Draft 2026: Ohio State has 3 defenders who are worth top-10 picks, positional value be damned
Trump raked in $28 million from Middle East business deals. Then he started a war.
The president's Persian Gulf real estate projects are worth roughly $17 billion.
Al Roker stops 'Today' interview with 'Laguna Beach' star over wardrobe malfunction: 'Guys, on live television?'
'Laguna Beach' star handled a wardrobe malfunction that occurred on live TV like a pro Friday on 'Today.'
Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi says Melania Trump’s Epstein statement was ‘very important’
Gov. Laura Kelly signs bills altering defendant competency process, child health care program
Gov. Laura Kelly announces the signing of more than 50 bills approved by the 2026 Kansas Legislature.
Photos: Makeup tests, shoulder cuff health and student presentations
Darryna Guy-Williams, a bioengineering and bio chemistry major, sprays Jenna King, class TA and postdoctorate candidate in chemistry and chemical biology, with a facial hydrating mist in Leila Deravi’s cosmetic chemistry class.
North Carolina Republicans Are Trying to Give One of the Country’s Most Partisan Judges a Frightening New Power
Over the past several years, the state’s Republicans have attempted—with varying degrees of success—power grab after power grab.
UMD in Third in Latest NSIC All-Sports Standings
The University of Minnesota Duluth athletic department is currently ranked third in the latest Northern Sun Intercollegiate Conference All-Sports Standings after the league calculated the standings again following the winter sports season. Again this year, the NSIC will recognize an overall champion along with a men's and a women's champion.
US states that surprised me after visiting 29 last year
After traveling across the US last year with my husband, a few states really surprised me, like North Dakota, Georgia, Kentucky, and Minnesota.
Trump is bullying NATO again. But Americans like the alliance
For the second time in the still-quite-young 2026 calendar year, President Donald Trump is threatening to blow up the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which Americans decidedly like, over a foreign policy adventure they decidedly do not.
Pittsfield Health Shuts Down North Street Eatery for 'Pests'
Closed sign on Iztac's front door. PITTSFIELD, Mass. — Iztac Mexican Restaurant is currently shut down by the Health Department. A hearing at the Board of...
Underdogs Denver, Wisconsin advance to title game
The Pioneers defeated Michigan in double-overtime 4-03 while the Badgers held off North Dakota 2-1 to earn their spot in Saturday's Frozen Four championship.
Inland Northwest families face mental health coverage gaps
COEUR D'ALENE, Idaho — A leader with the Northern Idaho Crisis Center said insurance coverage gaps are leaving some families without enough behavioral health support when they most need it.