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Semiconductor decoupling. Powell's politics. Industrializing Ogaden. Free trade and the Magna Carta.
Thank you for opening your Chartbook email. Feliks Topolski, 1907-1989 8th Army’s Front, Italy 1944 Semiconductor decoupling Source: FT One thing that Jerome Powell deeply understood is that chairing the Fed under current conditions is a deeply political job. “Powell has successes and mistakes to his name. But he stands out as having thought more carefully about the Fed’s democratic legitimacy than any chair since Paul Volcker,” said Paul Tucker, a former deputy governor at the Bank of England, referring to the Fed chair who successfully fought the great inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s. … While Powell was at the Treasury in the early 1990s, he watched Alan Greenspan build relationships within the government. That convinced Powell he needed to follow the former Fed chair’s lead and spend more time in Congress than his predecessors Yellen and Bernanke. “The accountability for the Fed runs through Congress,” said Claudia Sahm, a former Fed official who is now chief economist at New Century Advisors. “That’s not just about having people on speed dial — it’s answering questions, explaining policy and getting feedback.” Source: FT Ethiopia’s PM Abiy and Nigerian business tycoon, with Chinese engineering, are driving industrialization in Ogaden/Somali region of Ethiopia. - Michael Masri’s reporting for Africa Report if fascinating. Ethiopia has launched a cluster of large industrial schemes in the Somali region, laying foundation stones for a urea plant and an oil refinery in Gode while opening the first two phases of the Ogaden LNG project. Abiy Ahmed framed the push as part of a broader strategy to link energy, agriculture and industry. “These projects embody more than industrial growth,” he said. “They represent our shared responsibility to harness opportunities, strengthen co-operation and promote peace.” The Gode urea plant, backed by Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), is designed for 3m tonnes a year. Dangote owns 60%, while EIH holds 40%. Officials say Dangote’s equity totals about $2.5bn, while the state provides land and implementation oversight. Gas from the Calub fields will be piped 108km to the site. Construction is slated for 40 months, with operations targeted for 2028. Ethiopia imports most of its fertiliser, spending more than $1.2bn a year for 1.5m–2m tonnes. Usage was roughly 1.7m tonnes in 2023, almost half of it urea, and demand for 2024–25 is put above 2.4m tonnes. If delivered on time, the Gode plant could cover domestic needs and allow exports to neighbours. Brook Taye, chief executive of EIH, called the venture “a significant milestone in the journey toward industrial self-sufficiency”. Dangote told the groundbreaking crowd that the complex would be integrated with gas supply and a polypropylene unit to support local inputs. He pointed to Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), with a capacity of more than 5,000MW, and noted his group’s cement operations and expansion plans. The Gode refinery is being developed by Golden Concord Group of China. It is designed to process 3.5m tonnes a year of crude and condensate from the Hilala field, with associated storage. Backers say it will ease foreign-exchange pressure from fuel imports and anchor further industrial activity, including a proposed steel smelting site in Dire Dawa. GCL’s chair, Zhu Gongshan, cast the project as “a key step in Ethiopia’s path to energy sovereignty”, underscoring the Beijing–Addis ties. Financing details are still being finalised, but the refinery is central to the government’s energy-security narrative. Source: The Africa Report Dangote’s Ethiopian vision: Dangote began with cement. His crown jewel, Dangote Cement, dominates Nigeria’s market and has 10 operations in other nations in Africa. The formula has been consistent: identify sectors with chronic shortages – cement, fertiliser, sugar – commit massive local investments, and scale up to serve regional demand. Ethiopia was a natural extension of that model. In 2015, Dangote launched the Mugher Cement Plant outside Addis Ababa at a cost of $600m, with an annual capacity of 2.5 million tonnes. The investment gave him a firm foothold in one of Africa’s fastest-growing construction markets. But success came with risks. In May 2018, violent unrest led to the killing of Dangote’s country manager and temporary shutdowns at Mugher. While other investors might have retreated, Dangote doubled down. Today, he is preparing to spend $400m to expand Mugher’s capacity to 5 million tonnes, alongside a new grinding unit near Addis Ababa. Cement is just one market Dangote is targeting. Ethiopia’s enormous state-controlled sugar industry, long plagued by inefficiency and debt, has struggled for years to reform. Its Omo Kuraz Sugar Development Project, touted as one of the continent’s largest initiatives, continues to face delays and mismanagement. … The most ambitious venture of all is the planned fertiliser production complex in Gode, Somali region. Publicised on 28 August 2025, the Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) deal plans one of the world’s largest single-site urea manufacturing plants. The project costs an estimated $2.5bn and has an estimated capacity of 3 million metric tonnes annually, a rate that would not only render Ethiopia independent, but even a net exporter of fertiliser. EIH, the state wealth fund of Ethiopia, will hold 40%, while 60% is held by Dangote Group. … For Dangote, Ethiopia is a trifecta: Cement demand is projected to grow by 10% annually, its sugar consumption is growing with rapid urbanisation, and fertiliser demand is all but insatiable, given that farming supports the livelihood of 70% of Ethiopians. Source: The Africa Report The stakes for Abiy are high: For Addis Ababa, the $4bn fertiliser project in Ethiopia’s Somali region is no longer simply a manufacturing investment. It is increasingly being framed as a strategic state project tied to food sovereignty, import substitution and the government’s broader attempt to build economic resilience under mounting fiscal pressure. “Becoming self-sufficient in food is our main agenda,” Abiy says during the visit. “Land is needed; we have it. Water is needed; we have it. Human resources are needed; we have it.” The scale is enormous even by African industrial standards. Once operational, the plant is expected to produce three million metric tonnes of urea annually, potentially making it one of the continent’s largest fertiliser complexes. Ethiopian officials say the project now includes a 110km gas pipeline, a 120MW power plant, a polypropylene packaging facility and a two-million-tonne NPK blending plant. For a government grappling with chronic foreign exchange shortages, ballooning import bills and pressure on agricultural productivity, the numbers matter politically as much as they do economically. The decision to anchor the project in Gode is deliberate. Long viewed as peripheral to Ethiopia’s industrial economy, the Somali region is now being repositioned by the federal government as a future irrigation and agro-industrial corridor. Officials argue that the area’s vast land reserves and access to water could eventually support large-scale commercial farming capable of reshaping Ethiopia’s food economy. The government is simultaneously building housing infrastructure for about 5,000 residents near the plant, while officials project broader industrial expansion along the corridor. Abiy goes further, comparing the long-term revenue potential of the Gode development zone with Ethiopia’s flagship state enterprise. “The investments we are making in this Gode area, combined, will generate high revenue for Ethiopia, at par with Ethiopian Airlines,” he says. Source: The Africa Report Feliks Topolski 1907-1982 Topolski’s Chronicle, ‘Nazi Revival’, Vol. 8, Is. 1-2, 1960 HEY READERS, THANK YOU for opening the Chartbook email. I hope it brightens your day. I enjoy putting out the newsletter, but tbh, what keeps this flow going is the generosity of those readers who clicked the subscription button. Photo by Jakub Dziubak on Unsplash If you are persuaded to click, please consider the annual subscription of $50. It is both better value for you and a much better deal for me, as it involves only one credit card charge. Why feed the payments companies if we don’t have to. Subscribe Grim vision of drone warfare by Sylvie Kaufmann For contributing subscribers only. Subscribe The state of the art in Colbert-studies. Jean-Baptiste Colbert was Louis XIV chief minister from 1661 to 1683 and traditionally seen as an architect of absolutism and mercantilism. Alexander Hamilton later cited him as an inspiration in 1782. Now his legacy is disputed. Daniel Dessert, the chief critic, sees Colbert as the orchestrator not so much of an absolutist state as of an elite cabal. Would be great to have a good English-language review of this important debate. Source: lhistoire Didn’t know that the Magna Carta included free trade provisions Fighting for the right to the beach in Oregon in 1967: Source: Research Gate RAF Station – British and Polish Flags, c. 1940-45, The Ingram Collection Feliks Topolski, 1907-1989 ink and wash If you’ve scrolled this far, you know you want to click: Subscribe
One UI 8.5 breaks dark mode on Samsung phones, but there's a workaround
Several Samsung Galaxy users are reporting that dark mode is broken on their devices since the One UI 8.5 update, but workarounds exist.
One UI 8.5 reportedly ruined Dark mode with ugly Gray interface
Samsung users are reporting color palette inconsistencies across Google apps in One UI 8.5 with Dark mode enabled. Reports indicate that the interface of some Google apps has become excessively Gray, which should be optimized. Galaxy users who have updated their devices to the Stable One UI 8.5 build are reporting that the interface of Google apps […]
Managing the Second Victim in Healthcare
After a patient safety incident, clinicians need confidential, empathetic, and nonpunitive support — not blame — to prevent burnout and silence, reduce repeat errors, and improve reporting and care quality.
Outlet apologizes for misquoting 'Outlander' star Caitríona Balfe, reporting she called Scotland town 'an armpit'
'Outlander' star Caitríona Balfe has had her name cleared after an outlet mistakenly reported that she called a small Scottish town an 'armpit' in an interview.
International Insider: Cannes Wraps; Dark Side Of ‘MAFS’; French Revolution
Good afternoon Insiders, the sun is shining, Cannes is ending, and we’re still reporting. Scroll down for a round-up of a busy week. And sign up here for the newsletter. Interested in hearing from som...
Report: Brighton pushing to sign defender in £11m deal
Brighton Target Costinha as Right Back Search IntensifiesBrighton & Hove Albion are advancing talks to sign Olympiacos right back Costinha, with The Athletic reporting that discussions are centred on ...
N.Y. state Court of Appeals hears social media hateful conduct case
The courts are weighing and analyzing the constitutionality behind reporting and enforcing hateful conduct online.
Howard Fendrich, award-winning AP national sports writer and tennis expert, dies at 55
Howard Fendrich, a national sports writer for The Associated Press whose persistent reporting and detail-rich prose brought readers inside dozens of taut Grand Slam tennis finals, record-breaking Olympic moments and harrowing trips down Alpine ski slopes, has died. He was 55.
Howard Fendrich, award-winning AP national writer, dies at 55
Howard Fendrich, a longtime national sports writer for The Associated Press, has died at 55. His persistent reporting and detail-rich prose brought readers inside dozens of taut Grand Slam tennis finals, record-breaking Olympic moments and harrowing trips down the Alpine ski slopes.
Warhammer Skulls 2026 Showcase Streams Live and We're Detailing All the Latest News, Reveals, and Game Updates From the Event
Warhammer Skulls is back! The showcase event for all things Warhammer video games promises to deliver big news on everything from Space Marine 2 to Darktide, and we'll be reporting live on all the announcements, reveals, and updates.
Business Uncertainty Costs Middle Market Companies Up to 6% of Revenue
Business uncertainty remained elevated in March, with 27% of payment executives reporting high uncertainty levels even as optimism about the next 12
Michigan health officials warn of rising Salmonella outbreaks linked to backyard poultry
Michigan health officials are reporting an increase in Salmonella infections linked to three multistate outbreaks tied to contact with backyard poultry, particularly baby chicks and ducklings.
Science with Steve: Climate change & allergies
Reporting Portland and Vancouver area breaking news and weather stories to make Oregon and Southwest Washington a better place to live
Yuen: Youth sports are getting more intense. Tell me what you’re seeing.
From travel teams to rising costs, youth sports have transformed family life. We’re reporting on the impact in Minnesota — and want to hear from parents, athletes and coaches.
Lexington news startup debates its unique business model
While the “Local News Hub” program has helped the Observer pay for its own local reporting at a time when news outlets are in search of new revenue streams, some of its leaders are questioning whether it should continue.
People of UW: Association for Women in Sports Media President Rachel Cohen builds community, advocates for women
Please introduce yourself (hometown, year, major, role(s)) My name is Rachel Cohen. I am a senior studying journalism and mass communication and getting my certificates in sports communications and digital studies. I’m from Sykesville, Maryland which is a small town suburb of Baltimore. At Wisconsin I do in-game hosting for Wisconsin volleyball and sideline reporting...
Lehigh Valley Political Pulse: Politics in an evolving news landscape
Katherine Reinhard said many voters remain undecided heading into the primary and urged audiences to rely on credible reporting as they make final decisions.
A Look At Flutter Entertainment’s Valuation As FanDuel Leadership Changes And 2026 Guidance Are Trimmed
Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT) is back in focus after trimming its fiscal 2026 outlook and reporting first quarter results that combined strong sales with lower net income, along with leadership changes at core brand FanDuel. See our latest analysis for Flutter Entertainment. Those first quarter results, the trimmed 2026 outlook and leadership changes at FanDuel have come alongside a sharp reset in sentiment, with the share price down 56% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder...
Johnson and Jeffries appoint bipartisan task force to reform sexual harassment reporting process on Capitol Hill
House Speaker Mike Johnson and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries appointed a bipartisan task force that will work to reform the way sexual harassment claims are handled in Congress.
Pranav Dixit wins excellence in reporting award from AAJA
Business Insider's Pranav Dixit has won an AAJA Excellence Award for his three-part series, "Caught Between Countries: Tech Workers Navigate Trump's Visa Chaos."
The Long Fight for Small Business Lending Transparency Is Not Over » NCRC
Small businesses play a vital role in the US economy, but their ability to access credit has been a longstanding obstacle to their viability. Additionally, the CFPB's recent final revised rule implementing Section 1071 of the Dodd-Frank Act that effectively cuts small business lending reporting requirements could lead to more lending disparities for women and BIPOC entrepreneurs.
Health Catalyst (HCAT) Reports Q1: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings
Healthcare data analytics company Health Catalyst (NASDAQ:HCAT) will be reporting results this Monday after market hours. Here’s what you need to know.
How AI Is Reshaping Entrepreneurship for Gen Z and Small Business Owners
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming entrepreneurship by lowering barriers like cost, connections, and expertise. As a result, 77% of founders say it’s now accessible to start and grow a business regardless of background. Gen Z is driving this shift, with 73% managing multiple income streams and using AI to start and grow businesses. The result is a rise in flexible “portfolio careers,” where networks, personal branding, and digital tools are key to success. Key findings from LinkedIn’s research: 77% of founders say entrepreneurship is accessible regardless of background 73% of Gen Z entrepreneurs have multiple income streams 69% of founders say entrepreneurship is more achievable than ever 75% of entrepreneurs say networks are critical to success 68% of Gen Z entrepreneurs say AI is important to their business How are Gen Z entrepreneurs reshaping business? New research from LinkedIn shows how the use of AI, shifting career priorities, and evolving definitions of success are reshaping how businesses are started and grown. Gen Z is leading a shift toward more flexible ways of working, with nearly three-quarters (73%) of Gen Z entrepreneurs reporting multiple income streams, compared to 56% of Gen X. This highlights growth in “portfolio careers” designed to build resilience and create greater control over work and income. How is AI making entrepreneurship more accessible? AI and digital tools are making entrepreneurship more accessible, lowering traditional barriers such as cost, connections, and expertise. More than three-quarters (77%) of founders say entrepreneurship is accessible regardless of background, while 69% say it is more achievable today than ever before. Younger entrepreneurs are driving this change, with more than two-thirds (68%) of Gen Z entrepreneurs reporting that AI and digital tools are important to their business, more than twice the rate of Baby Boomers (27%). Nearly one in five (18%) Gen Z entrepreneurs say AI made starting their business feel possible. AI is also helping small business owners compete for talent: 57% of US entrepreneurs say that AI can help them compete with larger companies to find and attract better candidates. Related: The AI Edge for Entrepreneurs
Forza Horizon 6 Dev Bans Pirate Who Leaked Gameplay Footage Until the Year 10,000 — but Faces Uphill Battle Plugging the Leak
Forza Horizon 6 developer Playground Games is following through on its threat after the game was leaked online ahead of the official release date, with one pirate reporting a hardware ban until the year 10,000.
Why 57% of business leaders say their metrics will fail
Companies are investing billions in AI-powered dashboards, predictive analytics and real-time reporting. Yet there's a widening gap between data availability and decision quality.
A Look At AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Valuation After Strong Q1 2026 Results And Concert Partnership Progress
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) just released first quarter 2026 results, reporting revenue of US$1,045.4 million, a narrower net loss of US$117.1 million, and its strongest first quarter adjusted EBITDA since 2019. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. AMC's recent Q1 update, new concert partnership and high profile film slate have coincided with a 12.78% 90 day share price return, yet the 1 year total shareholder return is still down 45.05%. This suggests that momentum is...
Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) Valuation Check After Q1 Revenue Jump And Analyst Target Upgrades
Q1 earnings spotlight and why Sphere Entertainment is on investor radars Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) has drawn fresh attention after reporting first quarter 2026 results that paired higher sales with a sharply smaller net loss, followed by a series of updated Wall Street analyst views. See our latest analysis for Sphere Entertainment. The stock has cooled in recent sessions, with the 1 day and 7 day share price returns both down a little. However, the 90 day share price return of 36.79% and...
DHA-GEIS strengthens biosurveillance, force health protection during African Lion 26
AGADIR, Morocco — A coalition of U.S. military and research organizations deliver integrated biosurveillance support, strengthening commanders’ situational awareness and directly bolstering mission readiness during African Lion 26, April 20-May 8, 2026. The Defense Health Agency’s Global Emerging Infections Surveillance program coordinated subject matter experts and laboratory partners from Walter Reed Army Institute of Research‑Africa; Naval Medical Research Unit, Navy Region Europe, Africa, Central; the 1st Global Field Medical Laboratory; and the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases. Together they provided pre‑exercise risk assessments, rapid laboratory analysis and real‑time reporting that commanders and medical planners used to protect forces.
Assessing Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Valuation After Mixed Q3 2026 Earnings And Growth Initiatives
Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) drew fresh attention after reporting Q3 2026 results, with revenue of US$246.26 million, net income of US$5.11 million, and earnings per share of US$0.11 from continuing operations. See our latest analysis for Madison Square Garden Entertainment. Despite the mixed Q3 earnings, MSGE’s 1-month share price return of 10.2% and year to date share price return of 22.8% suggest building momentum. At the same time, the 1-year total shareholder return of...
Motherhood, maternal risk, and the WNBA: What I learned reporting through pregnancy
For women in sports, motherhood is a significant risk. But not for the reason that might come to mind.
CVS Health Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) raised its full-year 2026 adjusted earnings outlook after reporting stronger first-quarter results, with management citing improved performance at Aetna, continued execution at Caremark and resilient pharmacy operations. On the company’s first-quarter earnings call, David Joyn
GM will pay California $12.75M for selling driver location and behavior data
The settlement requires the Detroit automaker to stop selling driver data to consumer reporting agencies for five years
Colorado Senate honors journalism icon Fred Brown
The Colorado Senate on Thursday honored longtime Denver Post bureau chief Fred Brown with a ceremony as distinctive as the journalist himself, donning masks bearing his likeness and celebrating his five decades of shaping political reporting and ethical standards in the state. The tribute, offered by Sen. Mark Baisley, R-Woodland Park, noted Brown’s 50 years […]
Small business owners feeling overwhelmed by scam calls
A number of small business owners in Wisconsin are reporting more scam texts and calls.
FBI raids Sen. Louise Lucas’ Portsmouth office, cannabis business
Federal agents on Wednesday morning raided the Portsmouth office of state Sen. Louise Lucas, one of Virginia’s most powerful Democratic lawmakers, with multiple news outlets reporting an extensive law enforcement operation that included FBI agents, SWAT teams and court-authorized searches tied to several locations across the commonwealth.Fox News, who was first to report the news, said the FBI executed search warrants at several sites, including Lucas’ legislative office in Portsmouth. Staffers inside the building were ordered outside and were not allowed to re-enter as agents searched the premises. Witnesses saw federal agents carrying boxes out of the building.
China builds first ‘coal battery’, war on Alzheimer’s: 7 science highlights
From a zero emission ‘coal battery’ to China’s war on Alzheimer’s, here are some highlights from SCMP’s recent science reporting.
Man vandalizes multiple businesses on Calhoun, causes $57K in damages
The 911 call reporting the incident stated that a man was going around breaking windows in the area.
Calling political balls and strikes
Non-partisan reporting essential during times of increased polarization, says Hagerty Lecturer and UND alum Ian Swanson, editor-in-chief of The Hill
Single dose of magic mushroom psychedelic can cause anatomical brain changes, study finds
Participants took 25mg of psilocybin, reporting deeper psychological insight and better wellbeing a month later
From Final Four to Summer Baseball, Student Builds Sports Journalism Skills
Emily Tuttle is turning classroom preparation into real-world sports journalism experience, using Final Four reporting and an upcoming Rockford Rivets internship to...
What To Expect From Sphere Entertainment’s (SPHR) Q1 Earnings
Content production and distribution company Sphere Entertainment (NYSE:SPHR) will be reporting earnings this Tuesday before the bell. Here’s what you need to know.
AMC Entertainment (AMC) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect
Theater company AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) will be reporting earnings this Tuesday after the bell. Here’s what to look for.
AMC Entertainment (AMC) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect
Theater company AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) will be reporting earnings this Tuesday after the bell. Here’s what to look for. AMC Entertainment beat analysts...
What To Expect From Sphere Entertainment’s (SPHR) Q1 Earnings
Content production and distribution company Sphere Entertainment (NYSE:SPHR) will be reporting earnings this Tuesday before the bell. Here’s what you need to...
Las Vegas Review-Journal Launches VegasBusiness, a New Multiplatform Business Brand Serving Southern Nevada Leaders
/PRNewswire/ --The Las Vegas Review Journal today announced the launch of VegasBusiness, a new multiplatform brand designed to deliver authoritative reporting,...
Business Lookahead: Eyeing oil, US jobs, and European earnings
STORY: From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings, here’s what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.:: Crude and currencyOil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022 as the war with Iran enters a third month.While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.For each week the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated, the greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth or, for some, both. Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.A new month is now underway and some traders will be mindful of that old adage, "Sell in May and go away.":: Jobs gyrationsAs the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war, Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists polled by Reuters forecast. In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024, but that followed a sharp decline in February.The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair with the U.S. president keen on rate cuts.:: Starmer’s statusThursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way, with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets. That would bring more bad news for British bonds.::European earningsIt's a big week for European earnings with Shell and Commerzbank among those reporting.On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated. Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors: financials, tech and energy. The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.But if the war, and energy surge, persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. to Host Fiscal 2026 Third Quarter Conference Call
Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. (NYSE: MSGE) will issue a press release on Thursday, May 7, 2026 before the market opens reporting results for its ...
Summer move already done? VfB boss raves about Bundesliga star!
It has not yet been officially confirmed that Grischa Prömel will move from TSG Hoffenheim to VfB Stuttgart this summer. However, as numerous media outlets are reporting in unison, the transfer is al...
CFPB Eases Reporting Rules for Small Business Lenders
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has reduced the small business data collection and reporting requirements under the Equal Credit
The key takeaways from a massive day of tech earnings
With four companies — Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft —reporting in one day, there's a lot to unpack.
Sony clarifies recent PlayStation DRM update
PlayStation fans and gaming preservations have been alarmed since late last week that a new 30-day timer attached attached to newly-purchased digital games for PlayStation 4 and 5 might render those games unplayable if the system they’re on is offline for longer than a month. But a rep from Sony told Game File today that new system will require only a single online check before it functions as a perpetual license for the digitally purchased game. That is consistent with a newer theory that emerged by gamers testing the 30-day timer over the last two days. “Players can continue to access and play their purchased games as usual,” a rep for PlayStation told me over email. “A one-time online check is required after purchase to confirm the game’s license, after which no further check-ins are needed.” The rep’s explanation squares with the current understanding among players about what’s happening. A multi-day mystery A post last Friday by YouTuber Lance MacDonald spread awareness over the 30-day timer. Quickly, players began stress-testing the system, removing a battery within their PlayStations and checking what would happen if their systems were offline past the timer window. They noticed that setting a PS4 or PS5 to be the “primary” console—a common Sony-authorized method to retain rights to a digital game—wasn’t overriding the 30-day limit. On Tuesday came the breakthrough: A gamer called Andshrew on the Resetera forums posted the results of some tasting. They found that digital games purchased on PS4/PS5 after some time in mid-April would get a 30-day timer that could then be removed and replaced with a perpetual license that would allow the game to be played offline. The transition to the perpetual license occurred some number of days after the digital game was purchased and the system was connected to the internet. They believed that a PlayStation’s online check-in would trigger the license change no sooner than 15 days after the user had purchased the game. This synced with the theory that Sony’s new system is related to the 14-day window that PlayStation users have to request a refund for digitally purchased games. The new timer/check-in system could be a way to defeat some exploit in that refund system, some users theorized. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe In a follow-up, I asked the Sony rep if the 15-day timeline is accurate or if the perpetual license can be activated sooner after purchase. If they share more, I’ll update this post. Sony has not said why they’ve introduced the timer and whether it is designed to stop people from exploiting the refund system. But their explanation suggests that this new DRM method should not result in long-term loss of access to digitally purchased games, just because a PlayStation is offline for a month or Sony’s servers are down. Xbox flashback For many some gamers, the initial reporting of the 30-day timer conjured memories of Microsoft’s disastrous May 2013 announcement of the Xbox One, which was going to require an internet-connected check-in once a day, lest your games become unplayable.1 After widespread backlash, Microsoft abandoned that plan, ahead of the Xbox One’s launch. 1 Fun fact: That 24-hour check-in detail was my scoop from an interview I had that day with then-Xbox exec Phil Harrison. I was EiC of Kotaku at the time and rushing from one Xbox One preview appointment on Microsoft’s campus to another. I phoned the news in to reporter Jason Schreier, who wrote it up for the site.
Take action on your career, money, and life with Level Up
Level Up uses Business Insider reporting and expert insights to break complex topics into achievable actions — explore it today!
3 measles cases confirmed by Maryland health officials in April
Maryland is reporting its second and third measles cases of 2026, both of them Baltimore-area residents who had recently traveled out of state.
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect
Hotel and casino entertainment company Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ:CZR) will be reporting earnings this Tuesday after market hours. Here’s what you need to know.
Herald Staffer Wins Statewide Award for Sports Reporting
Jeffrey Merchan is honored for his story on injured soccer player Melvin Criollo
Trump Praises WHCA President Weijia Jiang After Shooting at Dinner
Weijia Jiang, a CBS correspondent, had been sitting next to the president at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner when shots rang out. Soon afterward, she was reporting on the attack.
Universal Health Services (UHS) Q1 Earnings: What To Expect
Hospital management company Universal Health Services (NYSE:UHS) will be reporting earnings this Monday after the bell. Here’s what to look for.
The local news crisis is also a public health crisis
Health and science reporting is often treated as optional coverage. It is anything but.
The local news crisis is also a public health crisis
Health and science reporting is often treated as optional coverage. It is anything but.
‘I Can’t Talk to Anybody.’ One Air-Traffic Controller’s Mental-Health Struggle.
Controllers say the FAA’s medical-reporting system discourages them from seeking treatment. The federal agency says its protocols keep skies safe.
Health Dept. report on S.F. hospital stabbing confirms Mission Local reporting
San Francisco will direct $15 million to Health Department security after fatal hospital stabbing.
California Lawmakers Seek Protections for Patients in ICE Custody
Moving through the California Senate are two bills, informed by KFF Health News reporting, that would strengthen protections for patients brought to health facilities by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Johny Srouji Taking Over as Apple's Chief Hardware Officer as John Ternus Transitions to CEO
Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Technologies Johny Srouji is set to take on an expanded role as Apple's Chief Hardware Officer as John Ternus transitions to his role as Apple's next CEO. Srouji is going to lead Hardware Engineering, reporting to Ternus. Current Apple CEO Tim Cook said that Srouji has been pivotal in Apple's transition to Apple silicon. Johny is one of the most talented people I have ever had the privilege to work with.
Legislation that could lead to faster election results advances
The Pa. House State Government Committee has advanced a bill that would allow election officials to begin opening and tallying mail-in ballots before Election Day, speeding election result reporting.
A Look At AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Valuation After Record Easter Trading And Odeon Refinancing
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) has drawn fresh attention after reporting record combined global admissions and food and beverage revenue over the five day Easter weekend, helped by the release of THE SUPER MARIO GALAXY MOVIE and strong attendance across its theatres. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. The recent record Easter trading, together with refinancing at Odeon and fresh attention from B. Riley, has coincided with sharp short term share price momentum. This...
Report: DC police wanted to arrest Cory Mills after assault call
New reporting from the Washington Post provides more detail about a police interaction involving a Florida Congressman, with body camera footage offering
Bridge Michigan’s Kelly House honored by MIT for science, whitefish reporting
Senior environmental reporter Kelly House and her series on declining whitefish in the Great Lakes were honored by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Knight Science Journalism Program.
Barcelona’s €30m Question For Man United Forward
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“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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