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Loaded entertainment lineup set for Cole County Fair
Live music, barbecue, go-kart racing, rodeo, and truck and tractor pulls are some of the highlights attendees can expect at the 76th annual Jefferson City Jaycees Cole County Fair.
Vance says Trump administration ‘screwed up’ communications around Epstein files
Vice President JD Vance said the Trump administration “absolutely screwed up the comms” around the Jeffrey Epstein files and should have released everything immediately, while insisting the administration was not trying to conceal information.
More than half of House Democrats vote to cut Israel aid in growing split
It stands as a stark accounting of the shifting attitudes dividing the Democratic Party over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war strategy
Democrats’ deepening Israel divisions: From the Politics Desk
Plus, a critical period for Ukraine.
University of Michigan’s David C. Miller chosen to succeed Jeff Balser as Vanderbilt Health’s President and CEO and Dean of Vanderbilt University School of Medicine
David C. Miller, MD, MPH, Chief Executive Officer of Michigan Medicine and Executive Vice President for Medical Affairs for the University of Michigan, has been chosen as the next President and CEO of Vanderbilt Health and Dean of Vanderbilt University School of Medicine. Miller will assume the role at Vanderbilt on Jan. 1, 2027.
Ventriloquist and comedian Jeff Dunham will perform at Hershey Theatre on Nov. 18
Popular ventriloquist and comedian Jeff Dunham will return to Hershey later this year with a show at Hershey Theatre, Hershey Entertainment announced Wednesday. "With headline-generating performances...
WATCH: House lawmakers speak ahead of Kathy Ruemmler interview in Epstein probe
Kathryn Ruemmler, the former top lawyer at Goldman Sachs who was White House counsel to President Barack Obama, said Wednesday in testimony to Congress that it “was a mistake to deal with” Jeffrey Epstein but insisted she never witnessed criminal activities.
Former Obama White House attorney says ‘it was a mistake’ to deal with Epstein and she regrets it
Former Obama White House counsel Kathy Ruemmler said she regrets interacting with the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and believes now it was a mistake, according to opening remarks she delivered to House committee investigators as part of a closed-door interview.
Charlotte Hornets GM raves about recent trade acquisition
Charlotte Hornets general manager Jeff Peterson had high praise for Naz Reid after acquiring him from the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The 2026 Sports Humanitarian Awards honored Stephen Curry, Jeffrey Lurie, Laurie Tisch, the Baltimore Ravens & more
Tuesday, July 14, athletes and celebrities gathered at Gotham Hall in New York City to celebrate and honor athletes, teams, leagues and members of the sports industry who use the power of sport to make a positive impact on society for the 12th annual Sports Humanitarian Awards.
Yankees news: The top trade deadline targets
Miller, Jeffers top the wish list; Bellinger back at the All-Star Game; CC’s kid starts his journey; what just kills ya
Jeff Passan Just Dropped Nightmare Dodgers-Tarik Skubal Take
Tarik Skubal is Major League Baseball's most intriguing trade candidate.
Colorado receives $5.8 million in federal weatherization assistance grants
Colorado has received nearly $6 million in federal funds through the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program after U.S. senators expressed worries about potential delays. In May, U.S. Sens. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., Jack Reed, D-R.I., and Susan Collins, R-ME, issued a letter urging Energy Secretary Chris Wright to release nearly $360 million in WAP funds […]
Bend-based entertainment business in 2026 Jefferson County Fair & Rodeo, replacing carnival
The Jefferson County Fair & Rodeo will have a carnival after all. The 541 Bounce Experience will offer waterslides, bounce houses, carnival games, obstacle courses and “more daring, interactive games” […]
I helped Jeff Bezos build Alexa; lessons I took with me from Amazon
Chai Atreya worked as a software development manager at Amazon from 2012 to 2015. He left to apply what he learned from Jeff Bezos at another company.
Jefferson County Clerk picked friend, donor and business partner to oversee elections, IT
The Clerk’s office is prepping for an audit after LPM News uncovered election error.
Is court mandated mental health help working? Victim's have concerns.
Rutledge Deas, previously convicted in New Orleans and Jefferson Parish for posing as a special needs individual, was arrested again in Lafayette earlier this year, raising concerns about court-mandated mental health treatment and sentencing.
The Quintessential Trump-era Politician
In 2020, I wrote an article about collaboration and collaborators. The title was History Will Judge the Complicit, and it started with the story of two famous East Germans, Markus Wolf and Wolfgang Leonhard, who both landed in East Berlin just after the end of the war. Although they came from very similar backgrounds, the former stuck with the regime, eventually becoming its spy boss; the latter, horrified by the brutal reality of Soviet-style communism, escaped. By way of juxtaposition, I also wrote about Lyndsey Graham and Mitt Romney. These two men also made very different decisions when confronted by Donald Trump’s assault on the ideals that they had both grown up believing: A glance at their biographies would not have led many to predict what happened next. On paper, Graham would have seemed, in 2016, like the man with deeper ties to the military, to the rule of law, and to an old-fashioned idea of American patriotism and American responsibility in the world. Romney, by contrast, with his shifts between the center and the right, with his multiple careers in business and politics, would have seemed less deeply attached to those same old-fashioned patriotic ideals. Most of us register soldiers as loyal patriots, and management consultants as self-interested. We assume people from small towns in South Carolina are more likely to resist political pressure than people who have lived in many places. Intuitively, we think that loyalty to a particular place implies loyalty to a set of values. But in this case the clichés were wrong. It was Graham who made excuses for Trump’s abuse of power. It was Graham—a JAG Corps lawyer—who downplayed the evidence that the president had attempted to manipulate foreign courts and blackmail a foreign leader into launching a phony investigation into a political rival. It was Graham who abandoned his own stated support for bipartisanship and instead pushed for a hyperpartisan Senate Judiciary Committee investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden’s son. It was Graham who played golf with Trump, who made excuses for him on television, who supported the president even as he slowly destroyed the American alliances—with Europeans, with the Kurds—that Graham had defended all his life. By contrast, it was Romney who, in February, became the only Republican senator to break ranks with his colleagues, voting to impeach the president. “Corrupting an election to keep oneself in office,” he said, is “perhaps the most abusive and destructive violation of one’s oath of office that I can imagine.” In the wake of Graham’s unexpected death on Saturday, I wrote about him again. He was, in many ways, the quintessential politician of Trump’s Washington, a man who shifted 180 degrees. Graham had been a fervent American patriot, proud reserve officer and military lawyer; he became one of the most important defenders of a president who believes soldiers are “suckers and losers” and shows no respect for law of any kind. As his politics changed, his language grew coarser and his behavior grew worse: He urged Israel to “level the place” in Gaza, and insulted the Danish prime minister in Munich, prompting a colleague, Senator Elissa Slotkin, to issue an apology. Here’s an excerpt from the article, which you can read in The Atlantic (gift link here) Like his close friend John McCain, Graham believed that America should stand at the center of a broad democratic alliance. The few times I met him were in that context, at the Munich Security Conference or at other European-American gatherings, which he once attended with great regularity. He also took seriously the practice of American democracy at home. In a 2014 conversation with The Atlantic, he described himself as a pragmatic politician who eschewed populist slogans. “I know Washington is broken, but what’s broken about it is everybody yelling and nobody trying to fix it,” he said. “I’m trying.” When Donald Trump first appeared in U.S. politics, Graham recognized him immediately for what he was: the spokesman for an alien ideology, one radically different from the idealistic patriotism that Graham had practiced and preached since childhood. Trump privately mocked the military that Graham loved as nothing but “suckers and losers.” He put falsehoods, cynicism, and personal greed at the center of his politics, while expressing disdain for transparency, accountability, and democracy itself. In 2015, Graham described Trump as a “race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot” who should “go to hell.” Also as a “nutjob.” When Trump won, Graham understood, as did so many others, that he would have to make some important choices. For a while, he went silent. In the spring of 2016, I saw him at one of those conferences in Europe. He seemed too depressed to speak. But then, like many other Republicans—and, more important, like many other people who have lived under political occupation or experienced radical regime change—he made the decision to abandon his previous ideals, to bury the patriotism that was once so important to him, and to become, instead, a loud, opportunistic collaborator. As I wrote in 2020, it’s very hard to look in to anyone’s heart and to understand their motivations from the outside. But it does seem that Graham had a deep need to be relevant, to be in the game, to be a player, at any cost. And that, rather than any particular achievement, is what he will be remembered for. Continuing to monitor conflicts of interest, ostentatious emoluments, outright corruption and policy changes that will facilitate outright corruption. (Read my original article, Kleptocracy Inc and check out the SNF Agora Institute chart) June 27 Trump diverted funds from more than 900 projects nationwide—including safety upgrades at national parks—to finance beautification projects around Washington, including $700,000 used to fix a White House walkway. June 28 After a years-long Department of Justice investigation into Abbott Laboratories over its management of a baby formula facility where potentially deadly bacteria turned up enough evidence to criminally charge the firm, top department officials instead opted for a financial penalty—illustrating the department’s move away from strict corporate enforcement under the Trump administration. June 29 Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stacked the Defense Policy Board—which is charged with providing independent national security recommendations to the Office of the Secretary of Defense—with Trump allies, including tech billionaire Marc Andreessen, who has invested in defense contractors like OpenAI and SpaceX, after purging the panel last year. Trump purchased between $1 million and $5 million worth of stock in Axon—which makes about 90% of US tasers—two weeks before ICE solicited bids for a $220 million taser contract. The White House unveiled limited-edition US passports for America’s 250th birthday, featuring a portrait of Trump overlaid on the Declaration of Independence. June 30 Trump made around $1.2 billion from his various crypto companies last year, including more than $500 million from World Liberty Financial and $600 million from sales of his meme coin. Trump is considering issuing 250 pardons to commemorate America’s 250th birthday. These are expected to be largely doled out through the Office of the Pardon Attorney’s informal network of intermediaries. White-collar defense attorneys say they can typically win pardons for clients for $2 million. Last year, Trump administration officials awarded a no-bid contract worth up to $500 million to Clark Construction for the White House ballroom—negotiations in which the president was directly involved. July 1 The Amazon MGM Studios documentary about Melania Trump earned the First Lady more than $10 million. Trump made hundreds of individual stock purchases worth as much as $12.8 million the day before his announcement pausing “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days sent the S&P 500 soaring nearly 10%—one of the largest single-day gains ever. Mar-a-Lago and Trump National Doral saw record surges in revenue during Trump’s first year in office, earning $77.5 million and $121.9 million respectively, compared to average annual revenues of $25 million and $75 million during Trump’s first term. Entities across the Persian Gulf paid more than $300 million to Trump’s businesses last year, including $263 million from the sale of half his stake in World Liberty Financial to a firm backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, a top UAE royal and brother of the country’s president. Kash Patel failed to properly disclose his stock purchase of a Department of Justice contractor, MicroStrategy, worth up to $250,000 last year, despite laws requiring disclosure within 45 days of the trade. July 2 Trump has been directing administration officials to steer more government contracts—so far worth more than $2.4 billion—to Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin aerospace firm, after Amazon gave $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund, donated to the White House ballroom project, and reached a $40 million deal to license a Melania Trump documentary. Alongside the billions he made from cryptocurrency last year, Trump earned millions of dollars from real estate licensing fees, including $21 million from organizations in the UAE and $9.2 million in Saudi Arabia, along with smaller sums from merchandise sales, including $4.7 million from Trump Watches and $35,920 from 45 Guitar, a guitar brand endorsed by the president. House Democrats accused consultants tied to the Trump administration of financial fraud, alleging they gave prospective donors to America250—the bipartisan committee created by Congress to celebrate the nation’s semiquincentennial—the banking and routing numbers for Freedom 250, the White House’s fund for events like the UFC cage fight. Democrats also allege that Freedom 250’s CEO traveled to the World Economic Forum in Davos to solicit donations from foreign government officials and business leaders. The Trump administration’s proposed rollback of gun regulations would lift the prohibition on mailing handguns to individuals, a significant win for GrabAGun—the direct-to-consumer firearm retailer on whose board Donald Trump Jr. sits and in which he holds a 1.1% ownership stake. GrabAGun currently must rely on a middleman to transfer firearms to customers. Trump’s financial disclosure revealed that he made more than 21,000 securities trades during his first year back in office, growing his investment account to at least $858 million across stakes in around 1,600 companies, compared to the 13 total trades Joe Biden made during his entire presidency. July 4 Nearly 1 million people who bought the president’s meme coin—Trump Coin—collectively lost $3.8 billion on the token, while he walked away with $636 million. July 6 Shares of Dell closed up 4.4% after Trump recommended people buy the firm’s computers during a speech announcing the launch of Trump investment accounts for children, boosting the more than $1 million worth of shares the president owns in the company. July 9 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh named crypto investor and Trump ally Marc Andreessen to a task force aimed at modernizing the Federal Reserve, including rethinking its approach to inflation—a key factor keeping interest rates elevated. Palm Beach International Airport has officially changed its name to Trump International Airport—a move that will require Florida to pay royalties to the president’s family for licensing his name. I was there a few months ago, during a trip to Barcelona. The sculptures were a revelation, I’d never seen so many together before. Each one has its own personality. Enjoy the good weather, if you are lucky enough to have it. History Will Judge the Complicit The Quintessential Politician Autocracy Inc Open Letters, from Anne Applebaum is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe
Sam Neill's 'Jurassic Park' costars Jeff Goldblum, Laura Dern pay tribute
Laura Dern and Jeff Goldblum are sharing emotional tributes to their "Jurassic Park" costar Sam Neill.
Jeff Ettinger Would Be an Effective CEO of the MN Business Partnership
Hormel’s interim CEO could bring instant credibility to the business association that needs to right its ship.
Yankees news: Top prospect Lombard could be nearing call-up
Yankees make Day 1 draft picks; Cashman scouting Twins’ Jeffers; Expectations for Domínguez still high; Lombard Jr. with a chance to reach majors soon?
Mick Jagger doesn't want to 'lecture' fans, says his job is to make people 'have the best time'
Legendary Rolling Stones frontman says his job is making audiences forget their problems, but his 2024 jab at Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry at New Orleans Jazz Fest sparked a public feud.
Biggest superyachts owned by tech billionaires: Jeff Bezos, Sergey Brin
From Jeff Bezos to Mark Zuckerberg, tech billionaires have become some of the superyacht industry's biggest clients. Here's how their boats measure up.
Jeff Bridges recalls Robin Williams ‘busting everybody’s chops’ during ‘late nights’ on set: ‘Brilliant’
Bridges said the “Good Will Hunting” star “would get this kind of devilish look on his face” and command the attention of the entire crew: “He was amazing.”
Gov. Jeff Landry and Mayor Helena Moreno trade barbs over money, politics and ATMs
What will it take for Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry and New Orleans Mayor Helena Moreno to get on the same page?
Cardinals, rookie 2B JJ Wetherholt reportedly in agreement on '9-figure' long-term extension
The deal will buy out multiple years of free agency, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
Watch China land a reusable rocket for the first time
China's Long March rocket has now matched Elon Musk's SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin in returning a first-stage booster.
Dr. Jeff Bird: New Endeavors in Youth Sports
By Dr. Jeff Bird— MUNCIE, IN—Participation in youth sports improves outcomes for children in multiple important parameters. The data is convincing. Youth sports participation is linked to significant improvements in physical health, cognitive function, and social-emotional development. I ha
Gov. Landry invites LSU sports donors to event on ‘future of college sports’ at governor’s mansion
LSU President Wade Rousse and Gov. Jeff Landry are co-hosting an event for LSU athletics’ top donors at the governor’s mansion next month on the financial future of the athletic department.
Merkley Joins Push to Kick Private Equity Out of Kids' Sports and Stop the Ripoffs
Washington, D.C. – Oregon’s U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley announced he joined Senate and House lawmakers in supporting the Let Kids Play Act, legislation to stop Wall Street from pricing kids out of sports. The proposed legislation bans private equity firms from taking over youth sports, shutting down the vulture practices they use to jack up costs, and getting money back to the families who […]
Gov. Jeff Landry's dominance in Louisiana politics
Gov. Jeff Landry's dominance in Louisiana politics, Rep. Joe Orgeron's veto experience, and the indictment of Attorney General Liz Murrill.
Last Day for Comanche Nation Entertainment’s school supply drive
The Comanche Nation Entertainment school supply drive is on its last day.
Arts and entertainment events happening July 9th-12th across the Mid-Ohio Valley
Jeff Dewitt joins Daybreak to discuss what’s happening July 9th-12th across the Mid-Ohio Valley.
Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin is raising $10 billion. Read the memo.
In a memo to employees, Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp said the company is raising the funds at a $130 billion valuation.
Radiologist and Maine health providers ask judge to dismiss couple’s lawsuit
The couple say MaineHealth, Spectrum Healthcare Partners and a radiologist failed to diagnose a blood clot that led Jeffrey Sayward to experience a disabling stroke.
2026 Emmy nominations: See the full list (updating live)
Emmy winners Liza Colón-Zayas and Jeff Hiller will reveal the Emmy nominations Wednesday, but two categories have already been announced — and there was a huge snub.
Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin Nears a Big Fund-Raising Round
The rocket company founded by Jeff Bezos is set to take on external investors for the first time, at a $130 billion valuation.
Downtown Columbia business owners petition for an urban camping ordinance
KRCG offers coverage of news, sports, weather and local events in the Columbia and Jefferson City, Missouri area, including the communities of New Bloomfield, Shaw, Boonville, Ashland, Hallsville, Sturgeon, Centralia, Mexico, Auxvasse, Fulton, California, Tipton, Eldon, Wardsville, Westphalia and Sedalia, Missouri.
Crowd work comedian Jeff Arcuri is ready to meet you
Stand-up comic Jeff Arcuri has become the guy from your Instagram reels you can’t quite place, now turning viral crowd work clips into his first Netflix special, “Nice to Meet You.”
FIFA's red card reversal: Fair play or political interference?
FIFA's Disciplinary Committee suspended US striker Folarin Balogun's one-game red card ban in exchange for a probationary period of one year.The decision was announced after President Donald Trump called FIFA President Gianni Infantino and asked him to review the red card.The suspended red card means Balogun can play in Monday night's win-or-go-home match in Seattle versus Belgium.But the decision has faced harsh criticism from fans and The Union of European Football Associations, which said the red card suspension "crossed a red line."What does the red card debacle tell us about political interference in elite soccer?For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at considerthis@npr.org.This episode was produced by Jeffrey Pierre and Karen Zamora, with audio engineering by Ted Mebane and Tiffany Vera Castro. Our director is Kai McNamee.It was edited by William Troop and Tinbete Ermyas.Or interim executive producer is Courtney Dorning.
Monday, July 6, 2026: Cramer says this tech giant's chip packaging business will be its next big gross margin driver
Go behind the scenes with Jim Cramer and Jeff Marks of the CNBC Investing Club as they talk candidly about the market's biggest headlines, analyst calls and holdings in the Charitable Trust—and see up close how they decide when, and if, to take action on stocks.
How Hakeem Jeffries is handling the most divisive issue in Democratic politics
The minority leader is letting his caucus hash out their Israel disagreements over a series of private conversations, withholding his own guidance for now.
Assemblyman Jeff Gonzalez on his military service, veterans advocacy, and America 250 celebration
California Assemblyman Jeff Gonzalez, one of just a handful of veterans elected to the Legislature, reflected on his military service, his role in founding the Veterans Caucus, and his efforts to organize California’s celebration of America’s 250th anniversary.
Vandalia Health's Sandene ready to meet health care challenges head-on
Vandalia Health's new president and CEO Jeff Sandene settling in.
Roob's Eagles Observations: Bryce Huff's hilariously misguided memory of 2024
Why Jeff Lurie is the best owner in Philadelphia sports history, Bryce blaming everyone but himself and more in Roob's Eagles Observations.
With Julia Letlow’s victory, Jeff Landry flexes political muscles as he eyes reelection next year
Landry scored a big win when Letlow won the Republican nomination for Senate. What does that mean for his reelection chances next year?
Health Department releases food inspection reports for week of June 21
Find out how your favorite restaurant, convenience store and other food establishments in Jefferson County are performing on Health Department inspections.
How Buc-ee's mania is affecting a nearby Goodyear business
Ass Kickin’ products was founded in downtown Glendale in 1986 by the owner, Jeff Jacobs, manufacturing a few barbeque and hot sauces. He met his wife, Linda, who took on the business with him.
Thomas Jefferson’s Embrace of Intelligent Design
Today on Independence Day, it is appropriate to review the sources of our rights as citizens.
Olivia Wilde says Jeff Bridges uses an unhinged technique before emotional scenes
The actress recalls her time working with the Oscar winner on "Tron: Legacy."
Hakeem Jeffries addresses Democratic Party divisions, says Trump is the bigger issue
On the eve of America's 250th birthday, NPR's Michel Martin asks House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York about the Democratic Party's midterm future.
Gov. Jeff Landry says he will ask State Police to investigate after Liz Murrill’s indictment
Gov. Jeff Landry said he would have State Police investigate the proceedings and those who led them.
The Business Model of Colleges Is Broken. It’s About to Get Worse
Declining enrollment and Trump’s policies are “breaking the business model that built the modern higher education system,” writes Jeffrey Selingo.
This is the most disruptive change in mental performance in my 40 years
Jeff Troesch has worked as a mental performance coach for almost 40 years. He says one change has loomed above all others.
Amanda Gonzalez ahead in Democratic primary for Secretary of State
Amanda Gonzalez is leading Sen. Jessie Danielson in the Democratic primary for Secretary of State, according to the Secretary of State’s website. As of 8:15 p.m., Gonzalez had 62.72% of the vote, while Danielson had 37.28%. Gonzalez, an election attorney, currently serves as the Jefferson County clerk and as an adjunct professor of election law […]
Gonzales ahead in Democratic primary for Secretary of State
Amanda Gonzalez is leading Jessie Danielson in the Democratic primary for Secretary of State, based on early returns posted after polls closed Tuesday night. As of 7:20 p.m., Gonzalez had 63.61% of the vote, while Danielson had 36.39%. Gonzalez, an election attorney, currently serves as the Jefferson County clerk and as an adjunct professor of […]
Longtime Clinton aide walks back claim former president visited Epstein island, sources say
A longtime aide to Bill Clinton walked back a prior claim that the former president visited Jeffrey Epstein’s island, according to two sources familiar with closed-door testimony on Capitol Hill.
Jefferson business betting buyers will purchase local lumber
Sustainable forest practices follow no-waste approach
Radford University finalizing plan to build new health sciences center on Roanoke’s Jefferson Street
The new building would house all Radford University Carilion programs, a university spokesperson said.
John West: Science and the American Founding
“Today, many people think that belief in a Creator is a subjective preference based on their personal faith. But that was not the view of America’s Founders.”
Justin Jefferson lands inside top 10 of CBS Sports Top 100 list
Justin Jefferson represented the Vikings near the top of Pete Prisco’s CBS Sports Top 100 players list, landing at No. 8 overall.
Master pianist Swann to perform Goldberg Variations
The Winter Harbor Music Festival will welcome internationally acclaimed pianist Jeffrey Swann for a special performance of J.S. Bach’s Goldberg Variations, BWV 988, on Saturday, July 11, at 7 p.m.
Gunnar gives back: O's shortstop surprises local kid with specialized cleats
BALTIMORE -- The story of 11-year-old Declan Lefevre’s youth baseball career is inspirational. When Declan was about 4 years old, a doctor noticed his legs were different lengths. And it wasn’t something he would grow out of, either, which is something his parents -- father Jeff Lefevre and mother Nichole
"Playhouse For Predator": Epstein Used 'Fake' Science Office As Prison Escape
The Florida Science Foundation was presented as a legitimate organisation focused on supporting research. But a review by The Telegraph of more than 1,000 documents connected to the company painted a different picture.
Jeffries Faces Steep Test as Far Left Builds Strength in Congress
The victories of Darializa Avila Chevalier and other anti-establishment candidates are changing the face of House Democrats, posing a challenge for their leader.
Could the Vikings eventually be forced to trade Justin Jefferson?
Is there a scenario where the Minnesota Vikings are forced to trade Justin Jefferson?
Sarah Ferguson visited Epstein in jail twice amid email exchanges: Report
A new report suggests that Sarah Ferguson visited Jeffrey Epstein twice in 2009 during his first prison sentence in Florida.
Congress subpoenas Leon Black during interview about Jeffrey Epstein
The House Oversight Committee issued subpoenas to billionaire Leon Black after he declined to answer questions about non-disclosure agreements.
Jeffries: What happens in handful of primaries not ‘indicative of what needs to happen in November’
Rangers trade Brett Berard to Canadiens for William Trudeau: Sources
The deal marked the first trade between Rangers team president Chris Drury and his predecessor, the Canadiens' Jeff Gorton.
SpaceX employees get rich off IPO while Blue Origin workers miss out
Three ex-employees of Jeff Bezos' rocket maker said Blue Origin's approach to equity left them with stock options that are essentially worthless.
Louisville coaches can't afford to stay sidelined amid NCAA changes
The NCAA has brought college sports into instability, which is why coaches like Louisville's Jeff Brohm and Pat Kelsey have to be activists.
WATCH: House Democratic leaders hold hearing on fair elections and voting rights
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democratic lawmakers held a hearing Thursday on defending fair elections and voting rights.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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