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AI may be making science faster but less original
While AI boosts speed and productivity, it may also reduce intellectual diversity and shift science toward machine-friendly questions.
China says exports grew at faster pace in April, rising 14.1% from a year ago
China says exports have risen 14.1% in April from a year earlier, despite the Iran war and lingering impacts from higher U.S. tariffs.
A different kind of leader: Scaling impact in geospatial science
David Page, head of the Geographic Data Science Section at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, leads with a focus on judgment, collaboration and empowering teams. Drawing on experience in academia, entrepreneurship and national security science, he has helped advance faster, scalable geospatial analysis while building resilient, forward-looking research teams.
Upfront costs of robotic heart surgery are high—but it may be a smart investment
Makoto Hashimoto, MD, PhD, said robotic procedures are associated with a faster recovery time and many other potential benefits.
Valve commits to restocking its Steam Controller after it "ran out faster than we anticipated"
The resource for people who make and sell games.
Google's Gemma 4 open AI models use "speculative decoding" to get up to 3x faster
Up to 3x the speed with no loss of quality—is it too good to be true?
IU Kelley Student Competing in Open-Wheel Racing, While Also Pursuing a Business Degree
For more than 100 years, the Indiana University Kelley School of Business has created career momentum for thousands of students. But this May, a junior studying finance and accounting, will experience it faster than any Kelley student who has come before him. The Kelley School is supporting Joey Brienza, a Kelley direct admit and Hutton Honors College student and a race car driver who competes in the USF Pro 2000 Series, a premier open-wheel racing series in the ladder to INDYCAR. On May 9, he w
reMarkable's new Paper Pure tablet goes back to basics with a monochrome screen
The new Paper Pure is lighter and faster than the reMarkable 2, which is going to be retired six years since its launch.
Asha Sharma admits "Xbox needs to move faster", as new CEO begins "winding down Copilot on mobile" and ceases its development on consoles
Xbox's newly-appointed head Asha Sharma is sunsetting the company's Copilot initiative, which was once envisioned as an AI-driven "personal gaming sidekick".
Space junk falls back to Earth faster as sunspot numbers climb
A new study links the sun's 11-year cycle to accelerated orbital loss, with debris falling faster once sunspot numbers near their cycle peak.
Valve Says Steam Controller Sold Out 'Faster Than We Anticipated' as Scalpers Cash In
Valve Issues Steam Controller Stock Update
'I was not looking for this': Scientist accidentally finds shortcut to Mars that could slash travel time in half
A new study suggests early asteroid trajectory data could help design faster Mars missions, potentially cutting round-trip travel time to under a year.
Stanford’s new chip boosts light 100x with surprisingly low energy
Researchers at Stanford have developed a compact optical amplifier that dramatically boosts light signals using very little power. By recycling energy inside a looping resonator, the device achieves strong amplification with minimal noise and wide bandwidth. Its efficiency and small size mean it could run on batteries and be integrated into consumer electronics. This breakthrough could enable faster communications and more powerful optical technologies.
HealthVerity to Acquire Symphony Health, Uniting Clinical Data and Commercial Analytics to Accelerate Breakthroughs Across the Healthcare Ecosystem
The combined company will join clinical data, commercial analytics and unmatched services into a unified, AI-ready environment to give life sciences organizations a comprehensive, connected view of the patient to move faster from insight to action. HealthVerity HealthVerity Philadelphia, PA, May 05, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- HealthVerity, Inc., the leader in privacy-protected real-world data exchange and patient identity solutions, today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement t
Coinbase is laying off 14% of staff, citing AI. Read the CEO's letter.
In a Tuesday X post, CEO Brian Armstrong said the cuts were to "be leaner, faster, and more efficient for our next phase of growth."
Introducing Autodesk for Small Business for the small businesses shaping Design and Make
Autodesk's new State of Small Business report* shows that small businesses across Design and Make industries are growing nearly 35% faster than the broader...
Opinion | This Is the Biggest Culprit for High Health Care Spending
Prices at hospitals have grown faster than prices in virtually any other sector of the economy.
Ducks bring speed to challenge the playoff-tested Golden Knights
If the first round of the NHL playoffs played out almost exactly like the opening series a year ago when the Golden Knights eliminated Minnesota in six games, their next opponent is a striking reminder to the one they just vanquished. The Golden Knights again are the more playoff-seasoned team, but the Anaheim Ducks counter with a faster team interested in more of a track meet when their best-of-seven series opens Monday night in Vegas. Much like the Utah Mammoth, a team Vegas eliminated in six games on Friday night.
Gillibrand rallies with labor unions, pushes Faster Labor Contracts Act
She rallied in Rochester with Teamsters Local 118 and in Syracuse with IBEW Local 43.
Gillibrand rallies with labor unions, pushes Faster Labor Contracts Act
She rallied in Rochester with Teamsters Local 118 and in Syracuse with IBEW Local 43.
Microsoft’s faster, less annoying Windows 11 is coming into focus
Microsoft is starting to roll out its promised changes to make Windows 11 cleaner, calmer, faster, and more productive.
Building useful quantum computers ‘in our direct line of sight’
Researchers say creation of startups suggests game-changing tech may be developing at faster pace than expected.
Health care is getting more expensive. Texas lawmakers want to understand why
Health care costs are increasing faster than the rate of inflation. A Texas House committee is holding a two-day hearing this week to learn more about what drives lack of affordable healthcare before working on policy recommendations later this year.
A Scientist Says Humans Will Stop Aging by 2029, Here's the Technology That Could Make It Real
A futurist l predicts humanity could reach "longevity escape velocity", the point where life expectancy grows faster than we age. But is it realistic?
Health care is getting more expensive. Texas lawmakers want to understand why
Health care costs are increasing faster than the rate of inflation. A Texas House committee is holding a two-day hearing this week to learn more about what drives lack of affordable healthcare before working on policy recommendations later this year.
CEO pay soared in 2025, 20 times faster than workers’ pay
Analysis finds real wages fell 12% since 2019, with inequality widening in the US beyond global levels
Good Luck Getting a Mac Mini for the Next ‘Several Months’
Apple CEO Tim Cook told analysts that AI adoption has happened faster than expected.
Africa Is Splitting Apart Faster Than We Thought, Forming a New Ocean
It's reached a "critical threshold".
Expense discipline wars: which insurance business managed cost inflation best?
Some grew revenue impressively from 2021 to 2025 — then let expenses grow even faster
Graduate school is possible with JUMP - Gary W. Rollins College of Business
Students can take up to nine credit hours of graduate courses charged at undergraduate rates, driving faster completion for master's degrees.
Internal Microsoft CFO memo touts 'increased pace' and 'tighter' teams
The company has introduced sweeping organizational shifts and mandates to work faster and leaner.
‘Last Mile’ fund helps NMSU computer science students cross the finish line
For college students out of options, the Last Mile Education Fund provides a faster way to support degree completion in high-demand STEM fields. At New Mexico State University, 19 students (14 of...
Apple Has Given Up on the Vision Pro After M5 Refresh Flop
Apple has all but given up on the Vision Pro after the M5 model failed to revitalize interest in the device, MacRumors has learned. Apple updated the Vision Pro with a faster M5 chip and a more comfortable band in October 2025, but there were no other hardware changes, and consumers still weren't interested. The Vision Pro has been criticized for its high price tag and its uncomfortable weight.
Mayor Bass Directs Permitting Reforms to Streamline Housing and Business Development Across Los Angeles
*This news release was originally published and distributed by the Office of Mayor Karen Bass. LOS ANGELES (April 27, 2026) – Today, Mayor Karen Bass announced a sweeping set of changes designed to make it faster and easier to build housing and open businesses in Los Angeles. The reforms will reduce delays in City approval […]
The US coastline is heading for an ocean disaster even faster than we thought, study suggests | BBC Science Focus Magazine
New research suggests the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could weaken by half this century with wide ranging consequences for weather, food and sea levels across the world
Your Mouth Could Be Aging You Faster—The Hidden Health Risk
Your mouth may reveal more than your smile—experts link gum health to heart disease, inflammation, and aging. Here’s why oral care is key to longevity.
MIT scientists turn chaotic laser light into powerful brain imaging tool
Scientists at MIT discovered that chaotic laser light can spontaneously form a highly focused beam instead of scattering—if the conditions are just right. This “pencil beam” enabled them to image the blood-brain barrier in 3D at speeds 25 times faster than existing techniques. The method also lets researchers watch how drugs move into brain cells in real time. It could dramatically accelerate the development of treatments for neurological diseases.
Rectal cancer deaths rising up to three times faster in specific age group, study finds
Researchers say that rectal cancer mortality is rising significantly faster than colon cancer in younger Americans — and the trend may worsen through 2035.
Stop-and-Go Science: Researchers Pivot to Try to Salvage Important Work
When climate change is faster than the speed of science and unstable funding threatens discovery, UC Davis scientists pivot to try to save important research.
MIT researchers find self-organizing “pencil beam” laser could help scientists design brain-targeted therapies
After a surprising discovery that overcomes a longstanding problem in fiber optics, MIT researchers demonstrated a biomedical imaging technique that is faster and more precise than other methods, which could help scientists and clinicians study new brain therapies.
The Key to a Healthy Mind
Personal Perspective: Our symbolic environment is changing faster than our evolutionary mechanisms can adapt.
Graphene kills harmful bacteria “superbugs” but spares human cells
Scientists have uncovered how graphene oxide pulls off a remarkable trick: it hunts down and destroys harmful bacteria while leaving human cells completely unharmed. By targeting a molecule found only in bacterial membranes, this ultra-thin carbon-based material acts with laser-like precision—offering a powerful new alternative to traditional antibiotics. Even more exciting, it works against drug-resistant “superbugs,” promotes faster wound healing, and keeps its antibacterial strength even after repeated washing.
Aggressive “hulk” lizards are wiping out millions of years of evolution
For ages, wall lizards coexisted in three distinct color types, each with its own strategy for survival. Now, a powerful green variant is taking over. These dominant “Hulk” lizards are outcompeting the others, causing yellow and orange morphs to vanish. It’s a dramatic reminder that evolution can flip the script much faster than expected.
Florida named second highest state for business bankruptcies
A new study by The Kaplan Group found that commercial bankruptcies are rising faster in Florida than in every state but Texas.
Framework's new Linux laptop is selling faster than its Windows one
According to a promotional post, Framework is selling more Ubuntu versus Windows variants of its new premium Laptop 13 Pro.
Bringing the future of better care to Texas using AI - UT Health San Antonio
UT Health San Antonio recently hosted its inaugural AI Symposium in Clinical Healthcare. More than 100 physicians, nurses, faculty and leaders came together with national experts to explore how AI is making care faster, more connected and more personal.
Volkswagen's Cisek on China Business
Volkswagen is accelerating its China strategy by deepening partnerships with local technology and electric vehicle makers, including Xpeng, as it faces intensifying competition and a prolonged price war. The company is pushing greater localisation across manufacturing, R&D and product development to shorten vehicle cycles and cut costs. The strategy comes as China's auto market shifts toward replacement buyers and faster innovation, putting pressure on foreign carmakers to adapt quickly. Robert Cisek, Passenger Cars Brand China CEO at Volkswagen, spoke with Stephen Engle on Insight with Haslinda Amin from the Beijing Auto Show.
Los Angeles Residents to Gain Faster Access to New Affordable Housing through Health Net's $10 Million Investment in "Guarantee Fund"
Partnership with LA4LA will accelerate construction of affordable and mixed-use housing across LA County SACRAMENTO, Calif., April 22, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Health Net, one of California's most...
The Universe Is Expanding Too Fast and Scientists Can’t Explain Why
The most precise measurement yet shows the Universe is expanding faster than expected, deepening the Hubble tension. The result hints that something may be missing from our current understanding of the cosmos.
It’s time Colorado built back to affordability
By Samuel G. Michael The price of calling Colorado home has climbed faster than its fourteeners, and not everyone can keep up. Our beloved state is an increasingly unaffordable place to live, pricing out the very people who make it thrive. Without decisive legislative action, we risk losing the essence of what makes Colorado special. […]
Introducing the Databricks Excel Add-in for Business Users
Now in public preview, the Databricks Excel Add-in brings governed lakehouse data into Excel, helping business users move from data to decisions faster.
India’s Decades-Long Political Truce Is Over
India’s five-decade-long political compromise between an overpopulated, impoverished north and more successful, faster-growing south has just imploded.
Legislation that could lead to faster election results advances
The Pa. House State Government Committee has advanced a bill that would allow election officials to begin opening and tallying mail-in ballots before Election Day, speeding election result reporting.
NVIDIA says new ReSTIR path tracing update is 2 to 3 times faster, but this is still research
ReSTIR PT Enhanced could lower the cost of real-time path tracing NVIDIA researchers have published a new paper called ReSTIR PT Enhanced: Algorithmic
Windows 11 to get a major reliability update in May with faster clipboard, stable taskbar, storage and more
Microsoft is preparing a major Windows 11 reliability update for May 2026 with improvements across File Explorer, explorer.exe, taskbar, Settings, clipboard history, input systems, and Windows Hello. Early Insider builds show faster performance, fewer crashes, and a more stable experience.
Microsoft is giving Windows 11 File Explorer a speed boost, dark mode fix, and reducing explorer.exe crashes
Microsoft now says it's preparing a big update for File Explorer that would allow it to run faster, address 'white flashes,' and more.
What caffeine does to ants could change pest control
Caffeine doesn’t just perk up humans—it can sharpen ants’ minds too. Invasive Argentine ants given caffeinated sugar learned to find food much more efficiently, taking straighter paths and reducing travel time by up to 38%. They weren’t faster, just more focused, indicating improved learning. This unexpected effect could make pest control baits far more effective.
Science news this week: Physicists witness faster-than-light darkness pinpricks, humans are still evolving, and some polar bears are getting fatter than ever
April 18, 2026: Our weekly roundup of the latest science in the news, as well as a few fascinating articles to keep you entertained over the weekend
Science news this week: Physicists witness faster-than-light darkness pinpricks, humans are still evolving, and some polar bears are getting fatter than ever
April 18, 2026: Our weekly roundup of the latest science in the news, as well as a few fascinating articles to keep you entertained over the weekend
The Manthey Porsche Just Ran A Near-Perfect Nürburgring Lap. A Mustang Still Beat It
The performance pack enabled the 992.1-generation 911 GT3 RS to be nearly four seconds faster than the regular car
Galaxy S27 may deliver insanely fast storage speed with UFS 5.0
Samsung is rumored to equip at least some models of the Galaxy S27 series next year with the faster UFS 5.0 standard storage chips.
Dimensity 9600 Pro Beats A19 Pro And Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 By 25% In Benchmarks, But Extreme Heat May Erase That Gap
A tipster shared the first single-core and multi-core scores of the Dimensity 9600 Pro, revealing it’s much faster than the A19 Pro and Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5
Artificial intelligence is reshaping environmental science into a predictive and precision-driven discipline
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming how scientists study and protect the environment, shifting the field from traditional observation toward predictive, data-driven discovery. A new perspective article highlights how emerging AI technologies are enabling a fundamental change in environmental research, opening the door to faster, smarter, and more integrated solutions to global challenges.
Report: Health care costs rising faster than wages in Wisconsin
Ananth Seshadri, director and co-author of a report on health care costs, said increasing costs hurts Wisconsin's economic competitiveness because insurance is often tied to employment.
How Dangerous Is Anthropic’s New AI Model? Its Chief Science Officer Explains.
Just how fast is the future coming at us, and how worried should we be? Last week, Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, the latest in what has become the leading family of AI models. In a very short time, AI models from Anthropic and other companies have become shockingly powerful at coding. But Mythos stands out because it is not just able to write code that can hack into critical systems, like those that run financial companies, but also to analyze systems and find and string together vulnerabilities in them, allowing Mythos to evade even sophisticated defenses. Anthropic chose to release Mythos to only about 40 leading corporations, so they could analyze the model’s capabilities and prepare countermeasures, in an effort it calls Project Glasswing. The release of Mythos—and the prospect of similarly powerful AIs to follow—has caused tremors at the top levels of Washington and corporate America. Jared Kaplan, co-founder and chief science officer at Anthropic, is at the center of this breakthrough. We sat down with Kaplan so he could walk us through just how powerful Mythos is, what the implications are for issues like our personal privacy, and what comes next. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. Sean Fischer: For the layman, how is Claude Mythos different—more powerful, more dangerous—from previous models released by Anthropic? Jared Kaplan: I think most people have experienced the fact that our computers get faster and faster over time and over many decades. There’s this very smooth trend where every 18 months, maybe, computer processing power doubles. I think AI is on a trend in which it’s improving maybe 10 times faster than that. A lot of the earliest work that I did in AI was around identifying this scaling trend in AI. Claude Mythos is the latest model from Anthropic, but it’s not different because it’s qualitatively different. It’s really just kind of the culmination of the trend of AI models getting smarter and smarter at all kinds of general capabilities, from reasoning to software engineering to scientific research to knowledge work. For us, it was the first model to demonstrate very elite-level cybersecurity capabilities. It wasn’t because we trained Claude Mythos to focus on cybersecurity, but it was because, as a byproduct of its general intelligence and its general ability with software, it’s particularly good at identifying vulnerabilities in software and how to exploit them.
One type of exercise can cut your risk of developing 8 diseases
Whether you’re hauling groceries or swimming faster laps, the amount of vigorous exercise you get matters and can slash your risk of developing eight diseases.
Windows 11 Speeds Up Storage, Lifts 32GB FAT32 Limit After 3 Decades
This should help storage management feel faster and more user-friendly.
This simple change stops robot swarms from getting stuck
In crowded environments, more robots don’t always mean faster results—in fact, too many can bring everything to a standstill. Harvard researchers discovered a surprising fix: adding a bit of randomness to how robots move can actually prevent gridlock and boost efficiency. By allowing robots to “wiggle” slightly instead of marching in straight lines, they can slip past each other and keep tasks flowing smoothly.
Physicists just witnessed pinpricks of darkness moving faster than the speed of light — without breaking the laws of relativity
For the first time, researchers measured singularities in combined light and sound waves moving faster than the speed of light. The findings have implications in fluid dynamics, optics and many other fields.
Universe is expanding faster than expected: Scientists struggle to explain cosmic acceleration
Science News: Not only is the Universe expanding, but its expansion is actually happening at a speed higher than was thought possible until recently. For many years.
WEBTOON Entertainment Announces Leadership Changes to Accelerate Global Growth Strategy
LOS ANGELES & SEOUL, April 13, 2026--WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. (Nasdaq: WBTN) today announced a new global leadership structure and Chief Business Officer role as it accelerates execution and innovation under recently appointed President Yongsoo Kim. The company has unified its global leadership structure to move faster and integrate regional operations, enhancing speed and efficiency across the company’s global ecosystem.
Blackmagic Design announces Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G
Blackmagic Design today announced Blackmagic URSA Cine 12K LF 100G, a new model in the URSA Cine family with 100G Ethernet for high-frame-rate SMPTE-2110 live production output up to 440 fps. Building on the digital film features of the URSA Cine 12K LF, including the large format RGBW 36x24mm sensor, the new model adds dramatically faster … Continued
Australian sprinter Gout Gout breaks under-20 record with blazing 200m time, surpassing legendary Olympian Usain Bolt
Gout Gout is faster than Usain Bolt was at age 18.
Gov. DeSantis is celebrating an Everglades restoration milestone ahead of schedule
'Together, we've taken on one of the most ambitious ecosystem restoration efforts in the world, and we've agreed to do it faster.'
Now Hiring: SSM Health in need of medical assistants
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says careers for medical assistants are growing "much faster" compared to other professions.
Surfshark Just Dropped a Next-Gen VPN Protocol That Could Be Faster and More Secure Than Other VPN Connections
The new Dausos connection protocol has been independently audited and includes a few key innovations not found in other VPNs.
Tested: Windows 11 just fixed slow storage management and removed a 30-year FAT32 limit
Windows 11 improves storage performance and removes FAT32 32GB limit. Disk properties now load faster in latest Insider builds.
The Universe is expanding too fast and scientists still can’t explain it
A major international effort has produced an ultra-precise measurement of the Universe’s expansion rate, confirming it’s faster than early-Universe models predict. By linking multiple distance-measuring techniques, scientists ruled out simple errors as the cause of the discrepancy. The persistent “Hubble tension” now looks more real than ever. It could mean our current model of the cosmos is incomplete.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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