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Kauaʻi Now launches major app update to keep you current with alerts, news, weather, entertainment and more
The new app, which features breaking news alerts displayed at the top, is available as free downloads in the Apple App Store and on Google Play.
Lenovo launches new 16-inch gaming laptop with Inkjet-printed OLED and 240Hz
Lenovo has unveiled the Legion R9000P with what it says is the world's first gaming laptop to feature an inkjet-printed OLED display. Also with a 240Hz refresh rate, the new 16-inch laptop could cost less than competing models in the market.
Motorola is bad at Android updates, confusing promises are on full display with latest release
Motorola is pretty bad at software updates, with new Android versions delayed by months and devices often getting the bare...
Galaxy S26 Ultra’s red screen stain is a software issue, not OLED burn-in
Earlier this week, we reported that some Galaxy S26 Ultra units displayed a rectangular red stain in the center of their screens. Users affected by the issue we
Our friend Marvin has curated a rigorous entertainment program
Music for the People has become synonymous with Humboldt Folklife Society (HFS). The word “folk” comes from Germanic roots and simply means “of the people.” That certainly defines HFS and its mission as a showcase of local musicians in a community driven display of traditional and roots music for all of us to enjoy.
Belkin launches new 10,000mAh 45W power bank that doubles as a motion-sensing night light
Belkin launches a 10,000mAh power bank with 45W charging, built-in USB-C cable, motion-sensing LED night light, digital display, and SOS mode.
Samsung says Galaxy Z Fold 8 crease is less visible thanks to ‘Flex Titanium’ display
The Galaxy Z Fold 8 series will get a new foldable display architecture, Samsung admits, which will improve the phone’s...
Samsung's new foldables will debut new Flex Titanium display on July 22
Ahead of Galaxy Unpacked, Samsung is pulling back the curtains on a new foldable phone feature that will debut at the event.
Upcoming OLED iPad Mini Allegedly Uses 60Hz 8.4-Inch Display Panel
Apple is allegedly using a 60Hz 8.4-inch display panel in the upcoming OLED iPad mini, which is expected to be released later this year. The information comes courtesy of a hit-and-miss tipster running the account "yeux1122" on the Korean Naver blog. The leaker claims to have been told by a source in Apple's supply chain that the unreleased iPad mini is equipped with a low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) backplane hybrid OLED panel clocked at 60Hz.
Report: Nintendo mulling Switch 2 OLED with Samsung Display panel
But it's not coming any time soon.
Samsung Galaxy S26 Ultra users are seeing red over screen issue
Privacy Display might be to blame
Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra display crease missing in latest hands-on leak [Video]
Rumors have suggested the Galaxy Z Fold series would take a big step in removing the inner display crease left...
Pixel 11 leak puts Google's rumored new color lineup on display
Pixel 11 leaks reveal new colors, giving us the clearest preview yet before Google's August 12 launch event.
NEW DATA: Florida Small Business Owners Display Higher Optimism than National Average
State-specific data shows heightened optimism and positive business conditions in Florida.
Aynor celebrates Independence Day with annual After the 4th celebration
Residents and visitors gathered Saturday at Aynor Town Park for the town’s annual After the 4th celebration, enjoying live music, local food vendors, family activities and a fireworks display that extended the Independence Day festivities beyond the July 4 holiday.
The Death Of Physical Media And The Real Challenges To Software Archiving
Along with the many displays of outrage, gnashing of teeth and other displays of profound grief at the recent news that Sony will no longer manufacture physical game discs come 2028, we have also h…
Elon Musk and Sam Altman are fighting in public again
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk do not like each other. That dislike was on full display on social media over the weekend.
Best in class creasefree display: Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra hands-on video leaked
A Galaxy Z Fold8 Ultra, apparently straight out of the factory, is being examined from multiple angles including, for the first time, while actually turned on. A leaked hands-on video suggests an almost completely crease-free display in Samsungs upcoming foldable, according to another leaker, this can also be expected from its more compact iPhone Ultra competitor.
Hatfield Marine Science Center celebrates blue whale skeleton
Newport's Hatfield Marine Science Center celebrates its new 70-foot blue whale skeleton, one of only five on display in the U.S., a decade after it washed ashore in Oregon.
Israel’s war in Gaza dominates US midterm races as Democrats split
Tensions between progressive and moderate camps of Democratic party on display in key Senate race in Michigan
What Smart Glasses Can (and Can't) Do: I Wore the Top Models So You Don't Have To
From AI assistants and built-in cameras to AR displays and wearable private screens, smart glasses come in more flavors than you might think. After testing every major type, here's how they differ—and which features actually matter.
Superb Sinner ends Djokovic's latest bid for history
Jannik Sinner produces a devastating display to end Novak Djokovic's latest bid for history and set up a Wimbledon final against Alexander Zverev.
Opinion: Jacobs Entertainment's application for a massive sign along I-80 should be denied.
The proposed Reno's Neon Line District sign is argued to be an advertising display, not an area identification sign. Public comments can be submitted until July 24.
The Galaxy Z Fold 8 just broke cover in a Samsung store — and the US price has leaked too
A Reddit user claims the Galaxy Z Fold 8 is already on display in a Samsung store in South Korea ahead of its official reveal.
National Guard shooting suspect in 'dire,' 'self-inflicted' health condition after refusing to eat: filing
Rahmanullah Lakanwal's condition is called "dire" after the D.C. shooting suspect refused food and water, forcing emergency hospitalization.
Here's the pricy sunglasses CEOs wore to Sun Valley
CEOs and media moguls are gathering at the annual Allen & Co. Sun Valley conference, where corporate summer casual fashion was on display.
iOS 27: 8+ New CarPlay Features
With iOS 27, Apple is introducing several CarPlay features that will improve your in-car experience, both when you're driving and when you're idle in the car. From new video experiences to Siri AI, there are multiple new options to look forward to. Video Apps CarPlay apps can incorporate video browsing capabilities, so you can browse for and watch videos on your in-car display while parked.
Annual Bigfork Rodeo draws thousands for 4 days of entertainment
For four days after the Fourth of July, the Bigfork Rodeo brings around 20,000 people to enjoy a display of professional entertainment.
Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts deals display positive outlook for Las Vegas
While a change in ownership can be a scary proposition for workers, neither of the Caesars or MGM transactions, should they be finalized, are expected to bring significant job losses in Southern Nevada.
The Politics of Ayatollah Khamenei’s Funeral
Under the shadow of a fragile ceasefire, Iran transforms the funeral of its slain Supreme Leader into a display of defiance, resilience, and continuity.
Honda recalling more than 325,000 vehicles over potential crash risk
Honda is recalling 325,588 Odyssey vehicles from model year 2018-2020 over issues with rearview image displays, increasing the risk of a crash.
Trump, 80, Graphically Displays Worsening Health Condition
Doctors have warned that the president’s late night social media habits and lack of exercise aren’t helping his diagnosis.
Gemini on Nest Hub redesigns weather and other knowledge answers
The Gemini for Home voice assistant is improving its Nest Hub and Smart Display experience with redesigned visual responses.
Bethesda HR Forced Staff To Remove Small Memorial To Laid-Off Colleagues
The Bethesda Games Studios Union shared images of the now-removed display featuring photos of fired devs
York, Hanover Community's Choice Awards winners celebrated
Businesses and organizations gathered Tuesday to celebrate the York and Hanover Community's Choice Awards winners at a gala in York.
Report: Cheaper Apple Vision Pro Display Work Winds Down at Samsung
Apple has suspended development of the display for a cheaper, lighter version of the Vision Pro that it originally planned to launch in the next few years, according to The Elec. The Korean outlet says Apple supplier Samsung Display is set to internally wind down the panel project – known in the industry as "G-VR" – with development set to be formally terminated by September.
Business - Undeterred by blasts, Macron says France ready to help rebuild Syria's economy
Trump, 80, Puts Chronic Health Issue on Full Display on Overseas Trip
Trump gave a glimpse of his bruised and makeup-slathered hand during the trip.
A rare blue whale skeleton is coming to OSU's marine science center
A rare blue whale skeleton found near Gold Beach in 2015 will soon go on display at Oregon State University’s Hatfield Marine Science Center after a decade-long preservation effort.
Schrödinger’s anthill: Quantum entanglement found in a crystal large enough to hold
A centimeter-sized crystal has revealed clear signs of quantum entanglement, showing that large, everyday objects can display surprisingly deep quantum behavior. The discovery could help solve the mystery of strange metals while opening new possibilities for ultra-precise quantum sensors and other advanced technologies.
125-million-year-old 'pregnant' fossil displays alien like reproduction method which has intrigued scientists
Moms are capable of magic that is more than just maternal. Nature has imbued its most special being with surprisingly strange ways of reproduction and care for their babies.
Samsung monthly updates: July 2026 security patch gets detailed
Samsung has released information about vulnerabilities that were fixed with the July 2026 security patch for Galaxy phones and tablets.
Nationals Star Displays Most Insane Power Surge Since Kyle Schwarber
About two weeks ago, I wrote that Luis Garcia Jr. was the missing piece on the team that was going to push the Washington Nationals to the next level. Well, I was right and wrong. I was right because since that point, Garcia has been absolutely raking. Over his last 15 games, the Nats first baseman ...
Appendix B: Classifying European political parties
Classifying parties as populist Although experts generally agree that populist political leaders or parties display high levels of anti-elitism, definitions of populism vary. We use three measures to classify parties as populist: anti-elite ratings from the 2024 Chapel Hill Expert Survey (CHES), the 2023 Populism and Political Parties Expert Survey (POPPA) and the 2023 PopuList. […]
In pictures: Marine Le Pen’s political rise and frustrated presidential ambitions
French far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen could see her 40-year political career come to an end on Tuesday if French courts rule that she is guilty of embezzling public funds and ineligible to stand…
Aynor extends Independence Day celebration with the After the 4th event
The free, family-friendly event will begin at 5 p.m. at the park, 600 S. Main St., and will feature an evening of live music, food trucks, a free children's zone and activities for all ages. The celebration will conclude with a fireworks display after dark, scheduled to begin around 9 p.m.
These 5 Android apps are so good, I'm surprised they're free
Free Android apps almost always have some catch. These don't — no paywalls, no subscriptions, not even ads.
Display Assistant app on Galaxy devices gets ready for One UI 9
Samsung has released a new update for the Good Lock's Display Assistant module. It is now ready for Android 17 and One UI 9.0.
DC experiences ‘Code Red’ air quality after massive fireworks display
Residents of Washington, DC, on Sunday briefly experienced the worst air quality of any major city in the world, according to a company that ranks pollution globally, as the capital reckoned with the aftermath of a massive, 40-minute Fourth of July fireworks show.
Trump’s Fireworks Fiasco Sparks Health Fears Across D.C.
The largest display in history left some Washington, D.C. residents stranded indoors.
What should a ‘Google Home Display’ be now that Google Home Speaker has set the stage?
The next generation of Google’s smart home era has arrived, with the Google Home Speaker having set the stage. With...
The Persistent Display We Never Got
We all know the e-ink persistent displays, as they’re cheap and plentiful enough to have become ubiquitous in applications such as supermarket price labels. But we don’t often see some …
This free Xbox 25th Anniversary tool puts your lifetime Xbox stats on display
See your first achievement and 25th Anniversary related Xbox stats in one place
The science behind fireworks and their brilliant colors
Fireworks displays on Independence Day are created by the combination of different metal salts, which emit light at unique wavelengths to produce vibrant colors.
As Washington preps for its largest fireworks display, cost questions arise
It is unclear where the fireworks were manufactured and how much the president's tariffs added to the cost
'Rough draft' of the Declaration on display for America's 250th birthday
Those visiting the Library of Congress over the next several months will be able to get a rare look at a draft of our founding document up close
From bamboo sticks to modern chemistry: A history of fireworks on display at the Science History Institute in Old City
“Flash! Bang! Boom! A History of Fireworks” tells the story of fireworks from the earliest Chinese inventions to today’s choreographed pyrotechnic displays.
Valve shares official 3D print files to let users build their own Steam Machine e-ink faceplate
The e-ink faceplate was first shown off alongside the Steam hardware announcement last year, and Valve has now shared the files and instructions for those who want to make one on their own.
The weather and science behind a perfect fireworks show
A great fireworks show is about far more than the fireworks themselves — the weather plays a starring role. Clouds, wind and even the humidity can mean the difference between a crisp, dazzling display and a hazy, muffled dud. Meteorologist Caitlin Kaiser breaks down the science that makes fireworks burst into color and the conditions that can make or break the perfect show.
Trump's massive July 4 firework show raises health alarms
An "unforgettable" tribute to America, or a health hazard that will terrorize animals and pollute the environment?
Ben Franklin Bridge's 100th anniversary celebration will feature live entertainment and special light shows on July 11
The free event in Camden will include food trucks, carnival rides, historical exhibits and blue and green light displays after sunset.
Galaxy S27 Pro and Ultra leak hints at a big shake-up for the selfie camera
Samsung has kept the same front camera for the Galaxy S series since the S23. But a new leak suggests a change is coming.
Weekend Entertainment | Plenty of Room for Booms at Fireworks Displays
The Youngstown Symphony Orchestra will perform a free concert that will come to a dazzling finale, with a fireworks display for 15 minutes.
Imai Implodes Again, Astros Blasted by Twins 8-3
It’s never a good sign when your first mile feels like you’ve already run a full marathon. For Tatsuyi Imai, the outing was quick and ugly. Twins 8 Astros 3. Imai’s early game struggles were on full display before an announced crowd of 29,179. In the opening several minutes, Trevor Larnach […]
Brand New The Blood of Dawnwalker Gameplay Showcases Coen’s Investigation Skills and a Boss Battle Against the Eerie Forgotten Guardian
See Coen's investigation and fighting skills on full display in this quest gameplay from The Blood of Dawnwalker.
Celebrate America's birthday with area parades, fireworks and festivities
From fireworks displays and patriotic parades to live music and food trucks, the Blackstone Valley is ready to celebrate Independence Day with a variety of festive traditions. This year’s Fourth
Meta is adding ridiculous ‘rate limits’ and a soft paywall to its smart glasses
Meta is rate-limiting on-device features.
Wyoming Department of Health Warns Residents About Spoofing Calls
CHEYENNE, WY — The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) is alerting residents to a recent phone scam where bad actors are “spoofing” official department phone numbers to solicit personal information. “Spoofing” is a form of scamming where a bad actor manipulates a caller ID to display a different phone number, often displaying the information of […]
The next test of the democratic socialist movement and other key races to watch in Colorado’s primaries
Democratic rifts over ideology, generation change and how best to take on President Donald Trump will be on display Tuesday in Colorado, as voters settle primaries for governor and a key House race, weigh ousting two mainstays of the state’s Democratic landscape and more.
Nintendo Switch 2 Owners Face a New Hardware Lottery, as Upgraded LCD Revision Could Split Buyers Into Winners and Losers
A new Nintendo Switch 2 LCD panel leak points to a hardware revision potentially fixing the handheld's ghosting issues.
Future OLED Macs and iPads could support a much wider color gamut, per report
As Apple gears up to bring OLED to the Mac, a new TrendForce report looks at the wider color gamut reportedly planned for future MacBook Pro, iPad Pro, and iMac displays.
DF Weekly: The GTA 6 60fps Debate Returns: Is There a Route Forward on Current-Gen Consoles Like Series X, PS5 or PS5 Pro?
Or is a 40fps mode for 120Hz displays the most we can hope for?
Apple Plans Wider Color Gamut for Future MacBook Pro, iMac, and iPad Pro
Apple plans to adopt OLED panels capable of displaying a much wider range of colors, according to a new report from research firm TrendForce. The new panels would cover 95% of the BT.2020 color standard, which describes a far broader spectrum of colors than the DCI-P3 standard Apple's screens currently target. In practice, that means deeper, more accurate reds, greens, and blues.
Flipper Device's new Busy Bar is a customizable display for productivity
Flipper Device's new Busy Bar will retail for $249.
The Flipper Zero creators’ Busy Bar productivity display will go on sale next month
The Busy Bar will let others know when you don’t have time to chat.
2026 BET Awards: The 5 biggest moments of celebration and remembrance
Family and sisterhood were on display at the 2026 BET Awards at the Peacock Theater with wins for Cardi B, SZA and Doechii, and tributes to D'Angelo and Lauryn Hill.
iPhone 18e Won't Get ProMotion Display, Says Leaker
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18e will have the same display refresh rate as the existing iPhone 17e, according to a prominent Chinese leaker. Discussing Apple's product plans for 2027 in a Weibo post, Digital Chat Station claimed that the next generation of Apple's low-cost iPhone will feature the same 60Hz low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) TFT panel as the current model.
PPDS Brings 'Limitless' TV Entertainment To Historic 5 Star Bellevue Syrene Hotel With Philips MediaSuite
PPDS, the exclusive global provider of Philips Professional Displays, has announced that its Philips MediaSuite TV range has been chosen to deliver seamless access to a virtually limitless world of | Delivering modern luxuries to the 18th century hotel in Sorrento, Philips MediaSuite TVs with cast built in are now bringing seamless access to millions of movies, TV shows, games, and streaming apps to guests at one of Italy's most prestigious and exquisite hospitality destinations.
RedMagic officially confirms global launch of flagship OLED tablet
RedMagic has confirmed the Astra 2 as its next flagship gaming tablet. The device will arrive as the international version of the China-bound RedMagic Gaming Tablet 5 Pro, which is confirmed to feature a 185Hz OLED display and the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 chipset.
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 Gets Disappointing Display News Before Release
Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra won't have a privacy screen despite it being a key Galaxy S26 Ultra feature. Here's what that means for the phone's price ahead of launch.
Apple working on M7 Ultra Mac Studio for 2028 with potential major upgrade: report
Later this year, Apple will be debuting an updated version of the Mac Studio with M5 Max and M5 Ultra...
I found a hidden Google Maps feature that made my Pixel's always-on display useful
A hidden Maps trick worth turning on
Belkin launches new 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 dock with 140W charging and triple 4K display support
Belkin has launched a 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 Dock in China priced at 2,299 yuan (approximately $338). The Belkin dock ships with a 180W adapter and 1m cable and delivers 140W USB Power Delivery over a single Thunderbolt 5 connection, with bandwidth scaling from 80Gbps to 120Gbps for high-resolution display use. Belkin briefly listed the dock on its global website at $350 before removing the page, hinting at a global launch.
Belkin launches new 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 dock with 140W PD charging & triple 4K 144Hz display support
Belkin launches a 14-in-1 Thunderbolt 5 dock with 140W PD charging, 120Gbps bandwidth, triple 4K@144Hz display support, and 14 connectivity ports.
What’s Happening: RI Small business shopping village
This summer, local entrepreneurs and small businesses will have their work on display at Providence Place.
Marine biobanks: the science of 'stopping time' for an ecosystem under pressure
In labs around the world, the ocean is being kept in jars. Some of it is alive, bubbling in flasks, while some lies frozen in liquid nitrogen. These marine biobanks are collections of coral cells, algae,…
Confederate flag displayed at N.C. exhibit at America's State Fair
A flag featured in the North Carolina exhibit at America’s State Fair on Washington’s National Mall is drawing some unwanted attention.
Apple's OLED 'MacBook Ultra' Will Stick With M5 Pro and M5 Max Chips
Apple's upcoming high-end MacBook model featuring an OLED touchscreen display will use the company's current M5 Pro and M5 Max chips, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The new, top-of-the-line device will launch "between late this year and early next year," Gurman said, adopting the existing high-end Apple silicon chips rather than next-generation M6 versions.
Apple orders 9x fewer display panels for the foldable iPhone Ultra than for the iPhone 18 Pro
Reportedly, Cupertino orders "only" 10 million panels for its first-ever foldable phone.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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