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Essential Strategies for New Science Facilities
First-time lab developers succeed not by intentionally building flexible, partnership-driven discovery ecosystems.
New Jersey Couple Aids Meteorite Discovery After it Crashes Through Their Roof
A New Jersey couple helped scientists uncover the makeup of an unusual asteroid after it fell into their bedroom.
Astronomers Detect the First True Sugar in Interstellar Space
The discovery hints that life’s ingredients may form before planets exist.
Paramount-WBD merger could impact entertainment options
California Attorney General Rob Bonta joins "Here's the Scoop" to discuss how the merger between Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery could impact the entertainment industry.
Wall of Entertainment Taps Chronicle Media to Power Audience Discovery and Growth for Its First U.S. Series
SAN FRANCISCO & LONDON, July 14, 2026--How do you find the exact viewers a new show is built for and turn them into a loyal, growing audience? That question is at the heart of a new multi-series partnership announced today between UK digital entertainment studio Wall of Entertainment and audience simulation platform Chronicle Media.
Wall of Entertainment Taps Chronicle Media to Power Audience Discovery and Growth for Its First U.S. Series
How do you find the exact viewers a new show is built for and turn them into a loyal, growing audience? That question is at the heart of a new multi-series p...
Google Images gets a Pinterest-like redesign focused on discovery
Now, when users navigate to Google Images, they'll see a "For You" gallery of images tailored to their interests and browsing history.
OpenAI’s IPO Conundrum | AI & Business for July 14
Plus, Apple’s legal sparring, and Wall Street’s problem with AI drug discovery.
Johns Hopkins APL’s Yee and Murchie Honored for Lasting Impact in Space Science | Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory
Scientists Sam Yee and Scott Murchie were jointly awarded APL’s Lifetime Publication Achievement Award for work that has documented discovery, driven space missions, shaped scientific priorities, and advanced the field.
This dinosaur fossil captures the final moments of a T. rex attack
A fossilized Edmontosaurus skull with a Tyrannosaurus tooth still embedded in its face has given scientists rare evidence of a dramatic predator-prey encounter. The discovery suggests the giant carnivore delivered an incredibly powerful face-to-face bite, offering new clues about how Tyrannosaurus hunted.
A Sweet Surprise: Scientists Find Sugar Deep in Our Galaxy
It’s the first time a sugar molecule has been detected in interstellar space. The discovery provides tantalizing new clues into how life may have arisen on Earth.
Body found near business in Folsom under investigation
(FOX40.COM) — The Folsom Police Department is investigating the discovery of a body that was found near a business early Monday morning. FPD said officers and detectives responded to reports of a b…
Integrating AI as a Human-Guided Tool in Translational Science
Peter Tummino of Nimbus Therapeutics explains how drug discovery and development experts can apply AI across targeted workflows with intention and creativity.
Light Can Act as a Quantum Brake to Slow Movement in The Nanoworld, Scientists Discover
"This discovery of light-induced quantum friction fundamentally changes our understanding... "
Supporting Science Is An Act Of Patriotism
As America turns 250, a look at why curiosity, evidence and discovery have always been at the heart of the American experiment.
At Family Science Night, Wonder Comes Before Answers.
BAR HARBOR—Family Science Night isn’t really about science. It’s about wonder. It’s about watching a five-year-old realize that the tiny creature under a microscope is a real living thing. It’s about a teenager discovering that the scientist explaining genetics or regeneration isn’t much older than they are. It’s about parents seeing curiosity spread across a child’s face the way excitement spreads across a crowd at a Fourth of July parade. For one evening, families realize that the laboratory isn’t some secretive place where knowledge is hidden behind white coats and closed doors. They learn that the lab is a place their neighbors work, their friends’ parents work, and it becomes a place where questions matter more than answers. It’s a place where wonder is the origin for knowledge. At the lab, children learn that it’s okay not to know. Adults remember that they once asked “Why?” about everything. Scientists are reminded why they fell in love with discovery in the first place. There are experiments, games, obstacle courses, and demonstrations, of course. But those are really just invitations—to touch, to explore, to laugh, to make mistakes, and to ask one more question. In a world that often rewards certainty, Family Science Night celebrates curiosity. And perhaps that’s its greatest gift. Long after the microscopes are packed away and the experiments are over, what families take home isn’t just a few new facts about biology. They take home the feeling that discovery belongs to everyone—that science isn’t something happening somewhere else by someone else. It’s simply what happens when people are given permission to wonder. A Family Science Night at the Mount Desert Island Biological Laboratory is one of those rare community events where children and adults can experience science as something they do, not just something they read about. Hands on discovery allows hands-on learning and joy. Real scientists, some local, some scientist-interns (but still scientists) just in college make science real, approachable, and exciting. And there, complex ideas like forever chemical-filtration, DNA and so much more become not complex. Instead, they become fun. Summer fellows are challenged to explain cutting-edge biomedical research in ways a first-grader—and their grandparent—can understand. Past activities have explored gene expression, kidney function, axolotl regeneration, worms, microplastics, and phytoplankton through games and creative demonstrations. Though it’s called family night, you can also see adults going from station to station, exploring, learning together across ages. Family Science Night reflects the laboratory’s broader mission of breaking down barriers between researchers and the public, helping people understand how scientific discoveries relate to everyday life and the health of Maine’s environment. Family Science Night transforms a world-class research laboratory into a giant interactive classroom, where curiosity is encouraged, questions are celebrated, and families discover that science isn’t just something that happens in a lab—it’s an adventure anyone can join. About MDI Biological Laboratory For more than 125 years, MDI Bio Lab has been a center for training and research in comparative biology. In the last two decades its biomedical research has focused on aging, regeneration, and environmental toxins. The Laboratory houses 11 research groups staffed by an international team of world-class scientists and graduate students. It also leads a statewide network of colleges, universities and research institutions that collaborate to provide training, research experiences and financial support to help young Mainers play a bigger role in today’s biomedical revolution. Located on Maine’s rugged coast, the Laboratory’s 100+ acre campus houses research facilities, cottages and dorms that house visiting scientists and students. It is also home to MDI Bioscience, a subsidiary working to design innovative techniques to speed the drug discovery process. LINKS TO LEARN MORE NIH INBRE MDI BIOLOGICAL LABORATORY Photos: Carrie Jones and Shaun Farrar/Bar Harbor Story HELP SUPPORT THE BAR HARBOR STORY When we started The Bar Harbor Story, we didn’t know if anyone would read it. But you showed up. You shared. You sent tips. Now—over 400,000 views every month later—it’s clear: people here care about their community and each other. We’ve kept everything free because news should never be out of reach, but every one of our stories takes time to write, and your support keeps The Bar Harbor Story going. If you value our work, please consider a paid subscription, a founding membership, or a sponsorship. It truly helps us cover one more meeting, tell one more story, shine one more light. Even $5 a month makes a difference. Click here to become a one-time supporter now. Thank you so much for being here. Founding member information can be found here. Have questions about sponsorships? Just send Shaun an email at sfarrar86@gmail.com, he’d love to hear from you. Subscribe Share Bar Harbor Story Share Leave a comment
Astronomers discover unexplained spin pattern in early galaxies - Futura-Sciences
A consistent pattern in the deep universe Lior Shamir, an associate professor of computer science at Kansas State University, analyzed images of 263 early galaxies captured through the JWST Advanced Deep Extragalactic Survey. Shamir used quantitative shape analysis to determine the rotation of each galaxy. The data revealed that roughly...
Entertainment Stocks To Watch Today
Verizon Communications, Walt Disney, SEA, Take-Two Interactive Software, Roblox, Warner Bros. Discovery, and TKO Group are the seven Entertainment stocks to watch today, according to MarketBeat's stock screener tool. Entertainment stocks are shares of publicly traded companies that make money from
Experimental drug reverses severe fatty liver disease by repairing the gut
An experimental drug called DT-109 reversed severe fatty liver disease in animal studies by repairing the gut and preventing harmful toxins from damaging the liver. The discovery could open the door to a new class of treatments for MASH and potentially other diseases tied to gut health.
Nobel-Winning U.S. Chemist Omar Yaghi Will Move to China to Lead A.I. Institute
Omar Yaghi of the University of California, Berkeley, will head an initiative to apply artificial intelligence to the discovery of new materials.
A vitamin A discovery is changing what scientists know about vision
A surprising discovery is reshaping scientists' understanding of how humans develop sharp central vision before birth. Instead of blue cone cells migrating away from the retina's center, the study found they transform into red and green cones under the influence of vitamin A-related signals and thyroid hormones. The findings could improve lab-grown retinal tissue and lay the groundwork for future cell therapies to restore vision lost to age-related eye diseases.
AI helped scientists discover two new superconductors, bringing them closer to a room-temperature breakthrough that could change electronics
Artificial intelligence is now fast becoming an important component in scientific investigations, and its recent achievement may have very significant effects on the advancement of technology. Scientists devised a way to utilise artificial intelligence in scientific research, which has not only resulted in the discovery of two new superconductors, but has also expedited the process of discovering even more superconductors.
Scientists finally crack nature's secret for building better cancer drugs
Researchers have cracked the code behind bacteria's ability to naturally manufacture multiple versions of powerful anti-cancer drugs. The discovery could make it much easier to engineer new cancer treatments inspired by nature, including improved versions of existing medicines.
INCUBASE Studio Accelerates Collectible Entertainment with GochaGocha's 23-Location Asia Debut of a New Photo Card Experience
INCUBASE Studio is expanding its IP entertainment ecosystem with the launch of GochaGocha, a new smart photo card machine platform developed by subsidiary INCUTix. Following a rapid rollout across 23 locations in Hong Kong, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur and Bangkok in early June, GochaGocha introduces a new channel connecting fans with officially licensed content through discovery, collectability and convenience.
Fermilab marks 70 years of neutrino science and leads next-generation experiment
As Fermilab commemorates 70 years since the discovery of the neutrino at the Savannah River Site in the United States, the lab also celebrates its multiple generations of pioneering neutrino research. Today, Fermilab is building the next era of neutrino discovery through the development of the world-leading Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment.
Schrödinger’s anthill: Quantum entanglement found in a crystal large enough to hold
A centimeter-sized crystal has revealed clear signs of quantum entanglement, showing that large, everyday objects can display surprisingly deep quantum behavior. The discovery could help solve the mystery of strange metals while opening new possibilities for ultra-precise quantum sensors and other advanced technologies.
KUOW’s new podcast Pocket Science digs into the groundbreaking research happening right here in the Pacific Northwest
Today KUOW launches Pocket Science, a podcast that takes you up close to the scientific research and discovery happening all around the region and introduces you to the scientists in the thick of it.
IFT: Proposed US federal grant rules threaten nutrition science funding & competitiveness
The US Office of Management and Budget (OMB) recently proposed rules to rewrite the Uniform Guidance — the rulebook for all federal grants. Institute of Food Technologists (IFT) chief science and technology officer tells Nutrition Insight that these rules are set to undermine the nation’s scientific research for food and nutrition and hinder global competitiveness.
Farewell, atom-smashing Large Hadron Collider
After 18 years of discovery, it's goodbye LHC and hello High-Luminosity Large Hadron Collider.
Baton Rouge residents engage with art and science during Free First Sunday event
BATON ROUGE — The Louisiana Art and Science Museum invited residents to a day full of exploration, creativity and discovery during Free First Sunday.
Scientists Found An Enormous Structure In Space That Shouldn't Exist
The discovery of a second enormous structure has raised fresh questions about the cosmological principle.
31 alien-like marine species discovered off the coast of Brazil
A ghostly squid, speedy gossamer worm, and more dwell 600 to 3,300 feet beneath the waves.
A hidden weakness in deadly cancers could lead to powerful new treatments
A UCLA study has identified a hidden Achilles' heel in aggressive small cell cancers that have resisted new treatments for decades. Scientists found that tumors lacking the RB gene become critically dependent on the protein E2F3 for survival. Blocking E2F3 shut down tumor growth in laboratory models, and existing FDA-approved drugs may be able to exploit this vulnerability. The discovery could pave the way for faster development of more effective therapies.
This toad exists only in Canada—and scientists have finally discovered why
Scientists have identified something that may be even more uniquely Canadian than the beaver or moose: a genetically distinct western toad population found only in Canada. The discovery, made by researchers from the University of Ottawa, points to a rare and previously unrecognized group of toads living in the Canadian Rockies and raises fresh questions about conservation, biodiversity, and how much wildlife still remains to be fully understood.
The New Anthropic Tool That Could Change How Drugs Are Developed
Introducing Claude Science, the AI platform designed to expedite the discovery of promising new therapies. Anthropic will also use it in-house to pursue innovative treatments for 'neglected' diseases.
Fort Rickey closed on July 3rd because of the Heat
Fort Rickey Discovery Zoo closed their doors to the public on July 3rd because of the extreme heat.
New PamStealer macOS malware uses clever tradecraft to remain stealthy
The discovery underscores the increased effort being poured into Mac infostealers.
Stem cell scientists engineer 'synthetic organizer' cells to improve kidney organoids
In a study published in Science, USC researchers paired a biological discovery with an engineering feat to create more faithful, reproducible lab-grown kidney structures from stem cells, known as organoids.
Scientists Sound the Alarm: Antarctic Discovery Is More Disturbing Than Anyone Feared - Futura-Sciences
The Frozen Continent Is Changing Faster Than We Thought Antarctica has always been a tough nut to crack for scientists. Its complex and sometimes baffling phenomena have long made it mysterious, and recent findings suggest its influence on our planet’s climate could be much greater than we thought. In September...
A strange LIGO signal could reveal the missing link behind dark matter
An unusual gravitational wave signal has renewed hopes that primordial black holes, long considered purely theoretical, may finally be within reach of discovery. If confirmed, they could solve one of astronomy's greatest mysteries by explaining the nature of dark matter.
Building connections across molecular life science
ASBMB President Ed Eisenstein reflects on how the society shaped his scientific career and outlines his vision for expanding connections across academia, industry and government to accelerate discovery, translation and community-building.
Students Explore Science And Research At Fourth Annual Discovery Day
Local students joined Cincinnati Children’s Discovery Day to explore research labs, meet scientists, and learn about careers in science and medicine.
Anthropic launches Claude Science for pharma researchers
Anthropic had made a big life sciences play with the launch of Claude Science, an AI 'workbench' for researchers involved in drug discovery.
An enormous explosion has occurred in deep space – and scientists caught it within minutes of the detonation | BBC Sky at Night Magazine
Using the Submillimeter Array observatory on Maunakea, Hawaii, astronomers zoomed in on a gamma‑ray burst within minutes of its discovery.
Anthropic Launches Claude Science to Court Pharma Ahead of IPO
Anthropic unveiled Claude Science, an AI workbench designed to run — not just assist with — pharma research. The company is seeking to build out its customer base in the pharma sector as it deepens its healthcare push ahead of a widely anticipated IPO.
Scrolling for science: How a Twitter post discovered a new wasp in Fukuoka, Japan
Researchers at Kyushu University recently identified a wasp species, Eupelmus curvator, in Japan for the first time after citizen scientists posted photos of it on Twitter (now X), marking both a new national record and the first formal description of the male of the species. The discovery highlights the growing role of social media in biodiversity research, allowing scientists to tap into observations from the public that would otherwise go unnoticed.
Anthropic unveils drug discovery plans alongside Claude Science, an AI tool for drugmakers
At an event on Tuesday, the AI heavyweight said it plans to target "neglected" diseases.
Researchers say Anthropic’s Claude Science will boost drug discovery
Anthropic's Claude Science aims to speed up drug discovery. Northeastern scientists weigh in on what it could mean for their research.
Anthropic Launches Claude Science AI Workbench for Scientific Research
June 30, 2026 — AI has the potential to dramatically accelerate the pace of scientific discovery and the development of healthcare interventions. Since launching efforts in the life sciences last fall, […]
Anthropic launches AI drug discovery program, joining tech giants in betting on healthcare
Anthropic will start an internal drug discovery program, part of a new push to sell artificial intelligence tools to drugmakers.
Anthropic launches AI drug discovery program, joining tech giants in betting on healthcare
Anthropic will start an internal drug discovery program, part of a new push to sell artificial intelligence tools to drugmakers.
L’Oréal-UNESCO for Women in Science Week 2026: Celebrating excellence
From 8 to 11 June 2026, UNESCO and the Fondation L’Oréal welcomed the five laureates of the 2026 L’Oréal-UNESCO for Women in Science International Awards to Paris for a week of exchanges, discovery
Scientists find ozone depletion began decades before discovery of ozone hole
Ozone depletion began decades before discovery of ozone hole, MIT scientists have found. Using modern tools, they also determined that carbon tetrachloride, a common dry-cleaning and degreasing agent, was at the root of early ozone loss.
Evidence points to potential new LCD screen for Nintendo Switch 2
The Nintendo Switch 2 screen could be getting a revision, based on the latest evidence. On a Chinese resale site, a listing recently appeared for a a new model of the system’s LCD panel. Sharp would apparently behind the updated screen. The current Nintendo Switch 2 features a panel from Innolux. This new screen has a different circuit, connector, and...
Databricks and Nvidia Launch Genesis Workbench for AI Scientists
AI is becoming an increasingly important tool for drug discovery. However, for many pharmaceutical and biotech companies, the challenge isn’t finding more powerful models. It’s getting existing models to work […]
KATALIN KARIKÓ
She was met with resistance, got demoted and eventually forced to leave academia – but Katalin Karikó never lost focus, doubling-down on her work to harness mRNA for new vaccines and therapies. Karikó’s Nobel Prize-awarded discovery enabled the development of effective vaccines against COVID-19, offering protection to millions of people.
Comcast to split cable business from media through NBCUniversal, Sky spinoff
Comcast will split into two publicly traded companies through a spinoff of NBCUniversal and Sky, separating its cash-generating broadband arm from a media and entertainment business under pressure from streaming rivals and industry consolidation. The latest U.S. media industry shake-up follows years of cord-cutting as legacy players chase scale to better compete with Netflix while Paramount Skydance's $110 billion deal for Warner Bros Discovery is set to boost competition. Comcast, which leans on cable for much of its cash flow, is also losing broadband customers to fixed wireless offerings from T-Mobile and Verizon and to fiber rivals building out networks.
Google Cloud to Offer Specialist AI Models for Science Research
Alphabet Inc.’s Google will start offering specialist artificial intelligence models from software company SandboxAQ through its cloud service, expanding enterprise and research access to technology designed to accelerate drug discovery, materials science and semiconductor manufacturing.
AI scientist company Edison Scientific tapped by team behind Metsera to create new biotechs
Edison Scientific and investment firm Population Health Partners are teaming up to leverage AI agents in drug discovery and development.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Scientists discover what triggers belly fat as we age
Aging may trigger the appearance of specialized stem cells that supercharge the body's ability to create new belly fat. The discovery reveals a potential biological driver of middle-age weight gain and a promising target for future anti-obesity treatments.
Raptor discovery in Argentina points to prehistoric links with China
Unearthed on opposite sides of the world, fossils of Kank australis and velociraptors sport matching claws, revealing evolutionary ties.
Scientists Baffled by Discovery of Rare “Pink Floyd” Spider Hidden in Home Walls - Futura-Sciences
The Birth of a “Pink Floyd” Spider Tiny, discreet, and quietly settled on urban walls, a new species of spider was recently discovered in Colombia—and christened as a tribute to the iconic rock band Pink Floyd. As part of a study published in the journal Zoosystematics and Evolution, South American...
Should “Success” in Science Be Measured Differently?
Publication volumes are one of the main ways that success is measured for researchers today. From mentorship to real-world impact, scientists argue that “publish or perish” pressures overlook many of the contributions that drive discovery forward.
Discovery Education Earns Five 2026 CODiE Award Nominations Spanning Math, Science, Digital Citizenship, and Immersive Learning
Discovery Education Earns Five 2026 CODiE Award Nominations Spanning Math, Science, Digital Citizenship, and Immersive Learning
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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GLP-1 and reduced cancer risk discovery earns UT Health San Antonio fellow prestigious Helio NextGen Disruptor Award
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First-of-its-kind discovery earns UT Health San Antonio Mays Cancer Center fellow prestigious Helio NextGen Disruptor Award
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How should European scientists respond to the US AI kill switch?
Earlier in June, Europe’s worst fears of technological dependence were confirmed when the White House ordered the AI firm Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using its leading models. This kill-switch moment crystalised anxieties in Brussels that the continent, lagging the US on the creation of leading-edge AI models, is now a technological of vassal of Washington. The shock has specific implications for European scientists and universities. Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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