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Supercool Brings Fortune 500 Video Ads to Small Businesses
Famous Labs' creative AI platform has released a new video production feature that allows small business owners to create professional video ads without a crew, a director, or editing software.Miami, FL, May 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Supercool, a creative AI platform developed by Famous Labs, has announced the launch of Advanced Movie Maker, a new feature that allows small business owners to produce cinematic video ads by simply describing what they want. No production crew. No studio. No edi
Dragon Nears Launch as Crew Works Biomedical Science and Spacewalk Preps
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, with a cargo-packed Dragon spacecraft atop, stands ready to launch to the International Space Station at 6:05 p.m. EDT today, weather permitting, from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida.
Letters to the Editor: When AI comes for your job in entertainment, maybe then you’ll care
'According to one 2024 report, more than 200,000 jobs in the entertainment industry could be displaced by AI. Those most likely to be affected include background actors, crew members, production staff and positions such as grips and prop masters,' writes an L.A. Times reader.
Dragon Targets Friday Launch as Crew Keeps Up Science and Spacewalk Preps
SpaceX CRS-34, the next mission to resupply the International Space Station, is now targeting its launch for no earlier than 6:05 p.m. EDT on Friday, May 15. Meanwhile, the seven-member crew aboard the orbital outpost stayed focused on microgravity research and lab maintenance throughout Thursday.
Lola Petticrew on 'I See Buildings Fall Like Lightning' and Politics
The nonbinary Belfast-born actor — and THR's next Cannes Rising Star — tackles our universal need for community and the newfound festival trend of apolitical messaging: "It’s a sorry state of affairs when artists don’t really believe in anything."
These Women-Owned Businesses Are Riding the Spurs Wave
San Antonio's Spurs fever is spilling into the boutique scene — and one group of women-owned small businesses is here for ALL of it. 🖤🪨 Spurs-inspired pieces are flying off the shelves at Poderosa Co this playoff season. The crowds are showing up, the energy is electric, and this all-women crew is proving that small business + a winning team = pure magic. Come support local, come support art, come support them. 🙌
Spain reports new hantavirus case in passenger evacuated from cruise ship
The infected man is one of more than 120 passengers and crew members evacuated from MV Hondius, the ministry says.
Crew Relaxes Before Busy Week of Science, Dragon Arrival, and Spacewalk Preps
The next cargo mission to resupply the International Space Station, SpaceX CRS-34, is slated for launch at 7:16 p.m. on Tuesday, May 12, from Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, weather pending.
Frontier Airlines passengers broke key safety rule: taking their bags
After a Frontier Airlines plane struck a person on the runway, passengers were evacuated, but many ignored the crew and still took their bags.
China tightens its grip on global business
Just days before a high-stakes Trump–Xi summit, Beijing is rewriting the rules of global business — punishing companies that move away from China, blocking major Western tech deals, and turning the screws on Europe to pick a side.
Cruise ship hit by hantavirus outbreak arrives in Tenerife
The cruise ship hit by a deadly hantavirus outbreak arrived early on Sunday near the Port of Granadilla in Tenerife, Reuters footage showed, where it will anchor for the evacuation of the passengers and some of the crew.
Spain readies for evacuations as a hantavirus-hit cruise ship heads for Canary Islands
Spanish authorities are preparing to receive more than 140 passengers and crew members on board a hantavirus-stricken cruise ship headed for the Canary Islands.
Steel beams headed underground in SD for ‘largest science experiment ever attempted on U.S. soil’
Crews are taking the next step for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment within a former gold mine at Lead.
Crews fight overnight fire at Asheville business
The Asheville Fire Department worked to put out a fire at an Asheville business early Thursday morning.
Elanco Animal Health CEO reveals efforts to stop screwworm outbreak
Elanco Animal Health CEO Jeff Simmons discusses response to screwworm outbreak concerns on 'The Claman Countdown.'
Seattle pauses Leschi marina redevelopment after outcry from disrupted local businesses
Local businesses in Seattle’s Leschi neighborhood say they were caught off guard this week when city crews abruptly blocked access to storefronts as part of a m
Star Fox Direct sees Fox McCloud and crew prepare for liftoff on Nintendo Switch 2 June 25 - News
All systems go! Moviegoers around the world have seen Fox McCloud take to the skies in The Super Mario Galaxy Movie – soon players can blast off with Fox and his allies on the Nintendo Switch 2 system. In today’s Nintendo Direct presentation, Ninten…
Crew Works Health, Spacesuits, and Cargo Mission Preps on Tuesday
Health monitoring, spacesuit checks, and preparations for an upcoming cargo mission kept the Expedition 74 crew busy on Tuesday. The International Space Station residents rounded out the day with a variety of maintenance on science hardware and life support equipment.
Delta canceling flights: Memo shows crew, scheduling challenges
Delta is canceling hundreds of flights — far more than its rival airlines. An internal memo reveals crew and scheduling challenges.
NASA just released 12,000 more Artemis II photos — here are a dozen of our favorites
NASA just uploaded more than 12,000 photos snapped by the Artemis II crew during their record-breaking flyby around the moon. Here are some of the most inspiring ones.
Crew Works Advanced Radio Frequency, Quantum Physics, and Health Tech
The Expedition 74 crew kicked off the week setting up advanced radio frequency technology, configuring quantum physics hardware, and conducting ultrasound vein scans aboard the International Space Station. The crewmates also prepared for the arrival of the next U.S. cargo mission, unpacked the latest Roscosmos resupply ship, and checked out a spacesuit.
Hollywood fire crews extinguish business structure fire
The fire has since been extinguished, according to fire authorities, and crews remained on scene conducting overhaul and ensuring the area is safe.
Fire Damages USF Marine Science Lab; Hazmat Evaluation Planned Overnight
A multiple-alarm structure fire significantly damaged a marine science laboratory, with officials indicating the building is likely a total loss due to extensive water and fire damage. The fire was reported at approximately 5:12 p.m. on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Fire crews reported that the structure was already heavily involved in the attic upon arrival. […]
Fire at building on USF St. Pete campus leads to evacuations, creates hazmat situation: police
Crews were battling a large fire at a building on the University of South Florida’s campus in St. Petersburg on Saturday afternoon.
Fire at building on USF St. Petersburg campus sends large plume of smoke into air
Crews were battling a large fire at a building on the University of South Florida’s campus in St. Petersburg on Saturday afternoon.
North Shore Health introduces custom ambulance as the summer season approaches
North Shore Health Emergency Medical Services will add a custom ambulance this summer as crews respond to calls across Cook County. The vehicle is the first four-wheel-drive ambulance in the fleet, a feature that helps responders navigate the county’s varied terrain in all types of weather. “What makes this unique is that we worked as...
Pro-Iran crew turns DDoS into shakedown as Ubuntu.com stays down
: 313 Team tells Canonical: pay up or the packets keep coming
Fire destroys business in Howard
HOWARD — Multiple fire crews from Centre and Clinton counties battled a blaze at a Howard area business Wednesday night into the early morning hours Thursday. According to reports, a call went out at about 11 p.m. on Wednesday for reports of a building fire along Spearing Street in the borough. Multiple calls were received […]
Life Science, Space Gardening Top Thursday’s Research Schedule
A new exercise device, artery scans, and space gardening topped the research schedule for the Expedition 74 crew aboard the International Space Station on Thursday. The orbital residents also worked on a spacesuit and continued unpacking the Progress 95 cargo craft.
Darlington: Deshaun Watson deal is 'worst contract and transaction' in sports history
The "Get Up" crew discusses whether starting Deshaun Watson would be a mistake for the Browns.
South Loop business hit by burglary crew targeting ATM and slot machines for third time
Student-run sports broadcast crew goes live at University of Delaware
It's a team sport of its own when the 'Hens All Access' crew produces live broadcasts of athletic events at the University of Delaware.
Electrical fire forces Buckhead business evacuation
Crews battled an electrical fire at a business in Buckhead late Tuesday night, forcing an evacuation and temporarily shutting down a busy roadway.
NASA fires up powerful lithium-fed thruster for trips to Mars
A technology that could propel crewed missions to Mars and robotic spacecraft throughout the solar system was recently put to the test at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California. On Feb. ...
Crew Awaits Space Cargo Delivery and Works Advanced Life Science
A Progress 95 cargo craft is orbiting Earth on its way to resupply the Expedition 74 with about three tons of food, fuel, and supplies. Two cosmonauts will be on duty monitoring the Progress 95 when it automatically docks to the International Space Station rear port on the Zvezda service module at 8 p.m. EDT on Monday.
You Can Help Humans Thrive in Space
The second Artemis mission took four astronauts around the moon and back – the first crewed deep-space flight since 1972. Not everyone gets a chance to put on a space suit, but you can still be an important part of NASA’s human space exploration story by doing NASA science!
Crew member killed in disturbing incident while constructing Shakira stage in Brazil
A crew member was killed in a disturbing incident while constructing Shakira's concert stage in Brazil, event organizers said in a statement.
Xbox at Summer Game Fest Play Days 2026: Meet the Developers of This Year’s Featured Games
For Summer Game Fest Play Days, Xbox has assembled a phenomenal crew of developers from all over the world. Come and meet the games and teams bringing their demos to the show.
UnitedHealth, CVS standardize prior authorization rules
Carriers are racing to deliver on sweeping commitments as Washington tightens the screws
Officials: Investigation underway after fire tears through Norristown business
Officials say an investigation is ongoing after crews put out a fire at a business on Swede Street at East Main Street in Norristown late Sunday.
A mom asked if her kid could move up to business class — and the Delta flight attendant handled it like a pro
The "cringe" request sparked secondhand embarrassment on Reddit, but the crew's response was spot on.
Coast Guard conducts search after crew member falls overboard from Norwegian Cruise ship
The Coast Guard is reportedly searching for a Norwegian Breakaway crew member seen falling overboard on security video near Wellfleet, Massachusetts.
Crime crew impersonates help desk, abuses Microsoft Teams to steal your data
: Coming in cold with custom Snow malware
25 Years of the International Space Station: Legacy, Science, and the Road Ahead
ORLANDO, Florida—In November 2025, the International Space Station (ISS) marked 25 years of uninterrupted crewed operations – a record unmatched in human spaceflight. On 15 January 2026…
New issue: Mirrorlife | BBC Science Focus Magazine
Mirror life could end all life on Earth. That sounds dramatic, but senior biologists have raised the alarm about experiments happening all around the world. It sounds like something in a Doctor Who plot, but no – mirror life is a real possibility. So why do scientists want to create something that’s potentially apocalyptic? Well, it could also have huge benefits (think back to splitting the atom). The first thing to say, however, is that mirror organisms are still a little way away yet – but only decades, not centuries. So far, scientists have only made mirror molecules, one of life’s building blocks. What for? Life works because its building blocks fit together. Imagine drilling a screw into a piece of wood. The screw cuts a hole with a thread that snugly matches its own. If, for some reason, the Doctor showed up and handed you a mirror version of the screw, its thread would be in reverse. It wouldn’t twist into the hole you’d just made as the threads wouldn’t match. That said, the mirror screw would still work; you’d just have to create a mirror hole for it. Mirror molecules, including DNA, work a bit like that. They follow the same principles as the biology around us, but they’re entirely incompatible with traditional biological functions. In medical terms, this means they’re effectively invisible to your body’s systems. Our biology doesn’t have the tools to recognise these molecules and break them apart. And if someone took these mirror molecules and put them together to make a cell and then an organism… you’d have mirror life. But we don't have any way of breaking it down. If it escaped the lab, we’d just have to hope it didn’t have an appetite.
Clay, Putnam fire containment percentage rises, business owner closes operations
Crews across Florida are still working to contain the nearly 4,000-acre fire burning in Clay and Putnam counties.
Focusing in on human health research at annual space meeting
Long-duration spaceflight can chip away at an astronaut’s health, prompting scientists to find new ways to make living in space easier on the body. The journey to outer space is incredibly dangerous, but crews must also face day-to-day hazards, such as exposure to cancer-causing radiation, microgravity and extreme isolation. Understanding and ...
Crewe still have targets this season
Despite missing out on the League Two play-offs, Crewe Alexandra still have some targets to hit before the end of the season says boss Lee Bell.
“How to Train Your Dragon 2” crew member severely injured during production
The accident happened in a workshop at Sky Studios Elstree in the U.K.
Behind the scenes of 'The Devil Wears Prada 2': Anne Hathaway's push for body diversity, Sydney Sweeney's cut scene and more
The film's couture-clad cast and crew have been dishing on all things Runway magazine and reuniting nearly two decades later.
Crew Studies Biotech on Tuesday to Advance Health and Space Economy
Biotechnology research seeking to advance human health and the space economy packed the science schedule aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday. The Expedition 74 crew members also explored space physics, updated robotics software, and conducted an emergency drill.
Columbus Crew owners get 18th NWSL franchise for record fee
The NWSL awarded an expansion franchise to Columbus, Ohio, and an ownership consortium led by the Haslam Sports Group. The new Columbus-based team will begin play in 2028.
Fire crews extinguish blaze at Sherwood business
Firefighters encountered dense smoke conditions in both the upper and lower levels of the structure.
2026 NL Central Power Rankings: Week 4
Crew bounces back but faces tough competition in deep NL Central
When former friends conclude we are the problem, we have a problem
April arrived in Colorado this year displaying the Janus-like dual visages that characterize MAGA America. The ecstatic, giddy enthusiasm of the Artemis crew which just circled the moon before returning to a near perfect splashdown off San Diego reminded each of us why we are so proud of our country — its daring, its commitment […]
Spring Cleaning: Hundreds of youths join annual spring cleanup in Oneida County
Bradley and Adey were part of a crew of nearly a dozen students from the honor societies in New Hartford High School and Strough Middle School who were out cleaning yards on Saturday. They visited two homes in Rome to rake cleaves, clear paths and pick up sticks leftover from winter — seemingly simple tasks that some seniors either can no longer do themselves or can't afford to hire a professional.
NICK STROBEL: Artemis II crew shows a greater good
Tickets for the last show of the spring season at the William M. Thomas Planetarium, “Supervolcanoes” this Thursday, April 23, are still available through the Vallitix site.
TCL Says Screw All Those New RGB TVs, Even Its Own
TCL now has its own RGB TV that it explicitly says offers less value than its new 'super quantum dot' mini LED screens.
Station Orbits Higher as Crew Runs New Science Experiments
The International Space Station is orbiting higher today after the Progress 93 resupply ship, docked to the Zvezda service module, fired its engines for just over five minutes Wednesday night. The orbital reboost places the space station at the correct altitude for the upcoming Progress 95 cargo mission scheduled to resupply the Expedition 74 crew at the end of April.
Crew Begins New Space Research and Installs New Science Gear
New science experiments are getting underway and new research hardware is being activated aboard the International Space Station after being delivered aboard the Cygnus XL cargo spacecraft on Monday. The Expedition 74 crew spent Wednesday unpacking Cygnus XL and stowing the new gear and supplies throughout the orbital outpost.
Contested Body Counts, Visibility and the (Necro)Politics of America’s War in Iran
Recent focus on a missing US aircrew member and underreported military casualties in Iran reveals a deeper system controlling war visibility.
Scientists and the Fishing Industry Join Forces for Better Data and Management (Part 2)
Industry-Based Biological Sampling Fills Data Gaps to Improve Stock AssessmentsOur cooperative research team works with industry partners across New England and the Mid-Atlantic to collect fish and invertebrate samples to better understand age, growth, reproduction, and bioenergetics. These samples fill data gaps during times of year and areas without surveys or other ways of collecting fish samples.
There were 'audible screams of delight:' Why Artemis II sightings of meteor flashes on the moon have scientists giddy
Meteorite strikes spotted on the moon by the Artemis II crew will help scientists assess dangers to future moon bases, infrastructure, and astronauts.
Expedition 74 Opens Cygnus XL and Unpacks Advanced Science Gear
The hatches are open between Northrop Grumman’s second Cygnus XL cargo spacecraft and the International Space Station following its robotic capture and installation on Monday. The Expedition 74 crew is now beginning to unload some of the new science and crew supplies delivered on Monday.
The RAM Crisis Just Royally Screwed Microsoft Surface PCs
We likely won't see a new Surface PC as cheap as the MacBook Neo anytime soon.
Following the Success of Artemis II, Scientists Will Shape What Comes Next for Lunar Exploration
NASA plans to launch more lunar missions after the success of Artemis II, signaling a renewed era for lunar exploration and science — and raising questions about what comes next. A National Academies study currently underway will identify key non-polar landing sites for future crewed lunar missions and what science goals could be achieved.
ESPN's Mark Jones calls final game for network, gets standing ovation from 'Inside the NBA' crew, tribute from Doris Burke
Black Maternal Health Week highlights disparities, solutions at Hampton Roads conference
Held as part of the national awareness week from April 11 to 17, the conference brought together doctors, nurses, social workers and midwife advocates to address inequities in maternal health care and outcomes.
Player status report, presented by Orlando Health: Orlando City SC at Columbus Crew SC
Here is the Player Status Report, presented by Orlando Health, for Saturday's away match at Nashville SC
'Human minds shouldn't have to go through' this: Artemis II crew recalls unreal moment when Earth disappeared — Space photo of the week
A stunning Earthset image from Artemis II recalls Apollo 8's Earthrise, marking humanity's return to deep space and the start of a new era of exploration.
Childers never doubted Victory Lane return: 'Not a chance in hell'
Rodney Childers, crew chief for Zilisch and JRM's No. 1 Chevrolet, responds when asked if he ever doubted he'd make it to Victory Lane again.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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