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Working family tax cuts 'absolutely vital' to small businesses across US, Kelly Loeffler says
Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler and Jimmy's Famous Seafood co-founder Tony Minadakis discuss the benefits of the new Trump tax law for small businesses on 'The Bottom Line.'
Common IBS medications linked to higher risk of death in major study
A massive, nearly 20-year study tracking over 650,000 Americans with irritable bowel syndrome is raising new questions about the long-term safety of common treatments. Researchers found that some widely used medications—including antidepressants and certain antidiarrheal drugs—were linked to a small but noticeable increase in the risk of death over time.
How low should blood pressure go? Science has the answer
New research suggests that aiming for a lower blood pressure target may deliver bigger heart health benefits than previously thought. Using large datasets and simulation models, scientists found that keeping systolic blood pressure below 120 mm Hg could reduce the risk of heart attack, stroke, and heart failure more than higher targets.
Developers plan construction phasing for Norman's Rock Creek Entertainment District
Rainier Development Company and the University of Oklahoma Foundation formalize construction phasing for Norman's billion-dollar arena district amid legal challenges.
Thinking Machines Lab loses another founding member to Meta
Meta has hired another founding engineer from Thinking Machines Lab as the AI talent wars intensify. The startup is still rapidly expanding.
Thinking Machines Lab loses another founding member to Meta
Meta has hired another founding engineer from Thinking Machines Lab as the AI talent wars intensify. The startup is still rapidly expanding.
Small Business Champion Elaine Parker Highlights Success of Big Beautiful Tax Cuts - Americans for Tax Reform
On April 14 in the U.S. Capitol building, Job Creators Network Foundation President Elaine Parker highlighted the success of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act,
108 more Chrome extensions found to be injecting ads and harvesting data
Delete these extensions immediately
Live Nation says ‘game is not over’ after jury finds company liable for ticketing monopoly
A federal jury in New York found Live Nation and Ticketmaster liable for monopolistic practices, in what attorneys general called a landmark victory.
Study: Vaping decreases; no increase in smoking when prices increase
The study found that higher pre-tax prices reduced e-cigarette use, which was measured by product units purchased.
Jury finds Live Nation, Ticketmaster operated monopoly over concert venues
A jury has found that concert giant Live Nation and its Ticketmaster subsidiary had a harmful monopoly over big concert venues.
Live Nation found liable liable in antitrust trial
The Justice Department and 39 states sued Live Nation to split the entertainment giant from Ticketmaster, calling it an illegal monopoly.
Attica Lumber celebrates a century of business
By Brianna Smith What started in 1925 with R.F. Cook’s passion for lumber and buildings has grown into a fourth-generation family business celebrating 100 years of service in Attica. Founded in the years following World War I, Attica Lumber has remained rooted in the same principles through ge
Fraud allegations may spark additional probe
Staff found 15 instances when this occurred but noted that time limits for making a decision made it “impossible to determine the exact number of fraudulent QC’s claimed by Collector 1.”
Reward offered after 71-year-old was found fatally beaten inside her business
The North Carolina governor is offering a reward after a 71-year-old business owner was fatally beaten inside her fitness studio in March.
Ohio State urban science center celebrates 25 years
The Center for Urban and Regional Analysis (CURA) at The Ohio State University celebrated its 25th anniversary with a festive brunch and commendations from the Ohio House of Representatives and Senate, as well as from Columbus Mayor Andrew Ginther.Founded in 2001, CURA’s mission is research and outreach to foster more sustainable, resilient an...
Rainier, University of Oklahoma Foundation to Build $1.1B Rock Creek Entertainment District in Norman
NORMAN, OKLA. — Rainier Development Co. has executed a master development agreement with the University of Oklahoma Foundation for the planned Rock Creek Entertainment District, a $1.1 billion project in Norman. Rainier will lead planning, design, coordination and development of the 269-acre district in collaboration with Cleveland County, the City of Norman, the University of Oklahoma, community stakeholders and other development partners. Rock Creek Entertainment District is envisioned as a year-round destination that will include an 8,000-seat performance venue designed to host concerts, conventions and community events, as well as University of Oklahoma men’s and women’s basketball games and women’s gymnastics events. Plans for Phase I of Rock Creek include the performance venue; a central outdoor plaza; approximately 140,000 square feet of retail, dining and entertainment experiences; roughly 250 multifamily units; and a structured parking garage with 1,200 spaces. Phased openings of the venue, restaurants and retail are expected to begin in 2028. Phase II will include approximately 180,000 square feet of office space and a 150-room hotel. Phase III calls for 500 additional multifamily units, as well as townhomes and single-family residences. Future phases are anticipated to include additional expansion, subject to market conditions and planning. The project, located…
The surprising reason you’re so productive one day and not the next
Feeling mentally “on” isn’t just in your head—it can significantly boost what you accomplish. Researchers found that sharper thinking on a given day leads people to set bigger goals and actually follow through. That edge can equal up to 40 extra minutes of productivity. But push too hard for too long, and the effect reverses.
After his own diagnosis, New Orleans Broadway star starts foundation for children with Type 1 diabetes
Kyle Banks was diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes during his Broadway tour of Disney's The Lion King after months of struggling with symptoms. Now, the New Orleans native wants to give back to his roots by providing resources for Louisiana children and families living with the disease.
To Keep Climate Science Alive, Researchers Are Speaking in Code
Words considered "woke" are vanishing from National Science Foundation proposals. Grist tracked the changes.
Political activist Abbie Hoffman was found dead in Bucks County on this week in Philly history
The 52-year-old who became a symbol of defiance spent his last few years in Bucks County, where he was found in the converted chicken coop he had been living in on April 12, 1989.
My Brother Found Himself a Gold Digger. She Has the Wrong Idea About Me.
She can consider this a permanent embargo.
StarTalk: w/ Andy Weir on the Science of Project Hail Mary (Transcript)
Editor's Notes: In this episode of StarTalk, Neil deGrasse Tyson welcomes back acclaimed sci-fi author Andy Weir to discuss the intricate scientific foundations of his latest bestseller-turned-film, Project Hail Mary. The duo explores the fascinating
Why are many Americans turning to AI for health advice
A Gallup poll found that roughly one-quarter of U.S. adults had used an AI tool for health information or advice in the past 30 days.
Bryan Johnson's advice to founders: Don't neglect relationships
At Business Insider's The Long Play event, Bryan Johnson pushed back on the idea that a sex life distracts founders.
Bryan Johnson's advice to founders: Don't neglect relationships
At Business Insider's The Long Play event, Bryan Johnson pushed back on the idea that a sex life distracts founders.
Polls show why many Americans are turning to AI for health advice
Many Americans are turning to artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT for health advice. A Gallup poll out Wednesday found that about 1 in 4 U.S. adults had used AI for health information in the past month.
Pulse of Politics: Dealing with inflation & Michigan Gubernatorial Debates
Financial Instructor Michael Masserant with the Retirement Education Foundation discusses how we can help our bottom line amid inflation and economic concerns. Plus, Pulse Anchor Roop Raj and Pulse of Politics Host Aaron Jordan discuss the upcoming Michigan Gubernatorial Debates, hosted by FOX 2.
OR gov. vows fight after court says parts of reproductive rights act unconstitutional
Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek is criticizing an oral ruling in Oregon that found the Oregon Reproductive Health Equity Act unconstitutional.
95% of people carry this virus and scientists may have just found how to stop it
Scientists have taken a major step toward stopping Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), an extremely common infection linked to cancer and chronic disease. By using mice engineered with human antibody genes, researchers created powerful human-like antibodies that block the virus from attaching to and entering immune cells. One of these antibodies completely prevented infection in lab models with human immune systems, marking a breakthrough after years of difficulty tackling EBV’s ability to invade nearly all B cells.
Scientists just solved a 160-million-year fossil mystery “I’ve never seen anything like it”
A rare fossil discovery is shedding light on the “missing years” of early sponge evolution. Scientists found a 550-million-year-old sponge that likely lacked hard skeletal parts, explaining why earlier fossils are so scarce. This supports the idea that the earliest sponges were soft-bodied and rarely preserved. The finding changes how researchers hunt for the origins of animal life.
108 malicious Chrome extensions found stealing data and injecting ads into every page you visit — delete them right now
The extensions have different publishers but send all the data they steal to the same place
RFK Jr. has tied fluoride with 'stupider' kids. What a new study says
A new study found people who drink fluoridated water long-term are just as smart as those who don't, contrary to RFK Jr.'s comments.
Binance founder Zhao says Gensler had to align with Dems' political agenda
Binance founder Changpeng 'CZ' Zhao sheds light on his book, 'Freedom of Money,' as well as his interactions with Sam Bankman Fried and Gary Gensler during an interview with FOX Business' Charlie Gasparino.
Study finds no link between medical gender reassignment and improved mental health among young people
An extensive register-based study conducted in Finland has found an increase in severe mental health problems among some adolescents and young adults who have undergone medical gender reassignment (GR). ...
The best linen pants for women
After testing over a dozen linen pants, we found the best pairs for work, travel, petites, and more that feel breathable, polished, and worth the money.
MusiCares Launches Groundbreaking Suicide Prevention Training And Mental Health Resources For Music Professionals In Partnership With The Jed Foundation
The groundbreaking digital microsite provides suicide prevention and mental health resources, evidence-informed learning and support tools, and a suicide prevention training course — all tailored to music professionals.
Emma Grede, co-founder of Skims, Good American, on how to win in business and at work
Self-made millionaire Emma Grede, who co-founded Skims with the Kardashians, has been both an entrepreneur and corporate worker. She has some tough-love advice on how to succeed in both business contexts.
I Don’t Blame NATO for Skipping Out on Our Greedy President’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Trump, whose most profound desire is to make money, is essentially running an extortion scheme.
GLP-1 medicine improves liver health independent of weight loss, study finds
Researchers at Toronto's Sinai Health have found that semaglutide—the active ingredient in popular weight loss drugs that mimic the gut hormone GLP-1—acts directly on a subset of liver cells to improve ...
Ultraprocessed foods are turning human thighs into well-marbled steaks
Diets high in ultraprocessed foods create streaks of fat in human muscles that may lead to osteoporosis, a new study found.
Health Systems Supporting Local Healthy Housing Goals
Safe, stable and healthy housing is foundational to public health, but the housing stock in many communities are met with hazards like lead, mold, pests and insufficient heating.
Lung Cancer Research Foundation Grants Team Science Award Focused on Curing EGFR-Mutant Lung Cancers
/PRNewswire/ -- The Lung Cancer Research Foundation (LCRF) announces the first recipients of its LCRF Team Science Award on Advancing Therapies Toward Curing...
RWS Global, a world leader in live entertainment and sports, announces executive leadership transition
NEW YORK, N.Y. — RWS Global, a world leader in live experiences across entertainment and sports, today announced that Founder, Chairman & CEO Ryan Stana will transition to Executive Chairman. C…
Scientists discover why bread can cause weight gain without extra calories
Bread and other carbohydrate staples may be doing more than just filling plates—they could be quietly reshaping metabolism. In a surprising twist, researchers found that mice strongly preferred carbs like bread, rice, and wheat, abandoning their regular diet entirely. Even without eating more calories, they gained weight and body fat, not because they overate, but because their bodies burned less energy.
University of Arizona launches BS in Science Law, available on campus and online
The BS in Science Law builds a strong foundation in both disciplines through coursework and labs in biology, chemistry and physics, alongside undergraduate law courses.
RWS Global, A World Leader in Live Entertainment and Sports, Announces Executive Leadership Transition
/PRNewswire/ -- RWS Global, a world leader in live experiences across entertainment and sports, today announced that Founder, Chairman & CEO Ryan Stana will...
Bill Galvano’s annual golf classic honoring his father marks 30 years of fundraising for local classrooms
'This annual golf tournament benefiting the Manatee Education Foundation has been such a special and fitting tribute to his legacy.'
30 Under 30 Europe Science & Healthcare 2026: The Founders Using AI To Empower Patients And Unlock Scientific Mysteries
These young entrepreneurs, researchers and doctors are improving healthcare, empowering patients and building the hardware of the future.
Google.org and the Johnson & Johnson Foundation are launching a $10 million initiative to train rural U.S. healthcare workers in AI.
Google is providing AI training and grants to help rural health clinics use tools that improve operations for healthcare workers.
Quantum systems can remember and forget at the same time, scientists discover
Quantum systems can secretly “remember” their past—even when they appear not to. Scientists found that whether a system shows memory depends on how you look at it: through its evolving state or its measurable properties. Each perspective uncovers different kinds of memory, meaning a system can seem memoryless and memory-filled at the same time. This discovery could change how researchers design and control quantum technologies.
BUILDERS OF MINNESOTA | Inside FairPlay Entertainment: How Matt Allen and Ryan Hayes Are Rebuilding Access, Dignity, and Creative Power in Minnesota
FairPlay Entertainment builds an affordable St. Paul studio expanding access, supporting diverse artists, and strengthening Minnesota’s music scene.
We built a $7 million business while traveling the world
Tricia Redulla co-founded Sky and Sol and built a sunscreen business while traveling across Asia, Europe, and the US. A year later it made $33 million.
Microsoft is testing OpenClaw-like AI bots for 365 Copilot
The Verge is about technology and how it makes us feel. Founded in 2011, we offer our audience everything from breaking news to reviews to award-winning features and investigations, on our site, in video, and in podcasts.
Pragmata On PC: Impressive From Path-Traced RTX 5090 Down To The Lowly 4060
Another hit from Capcom sets them up as the publisher of the generation.
Geography Graduate Students Receive National Science Foundation Award Offers for the 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program
Congratulations to our first year graduate students; Danielle Losos, Emily Nagamoto, and Lauren Palermo for receiving award offers from the National Science
NSF announces 2026 Graduate Research Fellowship Program award offers
The U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) today announced that it has made offers and will award 2,500 Graduate Research Fellowships for the 2026-2027 academic year...
Surfshark Just Dropped a Next-Gen VPN Protocol That Could Be Faster and More Secure Than Other VPN Connections
The new Dausos connection protocol has been independently audited and includes a few key innovations not found in other VPNs.
UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. Announces Upcoming Investor Webinar
Boston, Massachusetts--(Newsfile Corp. - April 13, 2026) - UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. (CSE: APPT) (FSE: 4KL0) ("UberDoc" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that Sean Kearney, Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. Paula Muto, Founder and Chief Medical Advisor, will present an introduction to UberDoc in a live investor webinar taking place on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, at 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET.The webinar will be hosted by Cory Fleck of the Korelin Report and provide an overview of...
UNM College of Population Health Celebrates 10 Years
Friday, April 17, 2026, The University of New Mexico’s College of Population Health (COPH) will proudly celebrate its 10-year anniversary, marking a decade of measurable impact, substantial growth and future ambition. Founded in 2016, COPH became the...
Memorial Health Foundation fashion show raises over $142K
The Memorial Health Foundation 21st annual Fashion Show, this year with a Masquerade Ball theme, drew a large crowd and raised more than $142,000, with proceeds supporting local cancer patients and related health initiatives. The annual fundraiser supports the foundation’s cancer patient emergency fund and breast health initiatives, helping individuals undergoing treatment with expenses such […]
Memorial Health Foundation fashion show raises over $142K
The Memorial Health Foundation 21st annual Fashion Show, this year with a Masquerade Ball theme, drew a large crowd and raised more than $142,000, with proceeds supporting local cancer patients and related health initiatives. The annual fundraiser supports the foundation’s cancer patient emergency fund and breast health initiatives, helping individuals undergoing treatment with expenses such […]
18% of gray whales that enter San Francisco Bay die there, scientists find
The climate crisis seems to be altering gray whales’ access to food, leading them to change their migration paths and forage in San Francisco Bay — a busy shipping area with a narrow bottleneck both whales and boats must cross. Scientists surveying these whales suspect that many don’t survive to leave the bay: of the 114 individuals they identified, only four were seen in more than one year between 2018 and 2025, and 21 were found dead, giving a minimum mortality rate of 18%. Many deaths were caused by vessel strike injuries, while some others are due to starvation.
'Missing' black holes are real - and scientists may know why
Astronomers believe they have found the mysterious forbidden void between black holes that has puzzled scientists for years.
LA Leaders Create Foundation to Fight $50M Health Cuts
Los Angeles community leaders launched The Fund for Advancing Public Health LA to offset $50 million in LA County public health budget cuts affecting clinics.
Snapdragon X2 Elite Offers A Solid Foundation For A Windows On ARM Ecosystem, But OEMs Current Strategy Risk Its Future
Qualcomm has made incredible strides with the Snapdragon X2 Elite, but OEMs using the SoC risk that higher adoption with their current strategies
Ancient Egyptian stone monument depicting a Roman emperor as a pharaoh discovered in Luxor
A stone slab depicting the Roman emperor Tiberius was found during restoration work at the Karnak temple complex in Luxor.
Why Ozempic doesn’t work for everyone: Scientists just found a hidden reason
A new study reveals that popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may not work as effectively for about 10% of people due to specific genetic variants. These individuals appear to have a puzzling condition called “GLP-1 resistance,” where their bodies produce higher levels of the hormone targeted by these drugs—but don’t respond to it properly.
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
Entergy adds executives; new nonprofit CEO named, board additions at sports foundation
Take a look at some of the recent promotions and new hires announced at south Louisiana businesses.
Exit Interview: John Byrne On Building Poets&Quants, Breaking Big Stories & What Business Education Really Needs
As he steps away, P&Q’s founder reflects on 16 years of growth, impact, and the evolution of business education.
Nearly 100 Colorado businesses have left or scaled back operations since 2019, report finds
A new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation suggests the state’s weakening competitiveness is driving businesses out of state. Companies are blaming factors like increasing regulations and cost of living for why they’re choosing to...
Young sibling duo starts small bread making business
Our team stopped by the Youngstown Flea this afternoon and found 12-year-old Gloria, and her 10-year-old brother Israel running their own stall.
Young sibling duo starts small bread making business
Our team stopped by the Youngstown Flea this afternoon and found 12-year-old Gloria, and her 10-year-old brother Israel running their own stall.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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Early weight gain is linked to lifelong health consequences
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In praise of popular science
As a kid, I was enthusiastically and unreservedly in favor of a manned space program. Our destiny lay in the stars, I figured. Get people out there. We need Star Trek here and now. As I got older, I became rather disenchanted with the idea. Humans are expensive, fragile, and inefficient as space cargo. We could flood the solar system with 100 robotic probes for the price of any single manned mission and get back just as useful data. Besides, it turns out space travel is dangerous. Tusk is a reader-supported publication. To support this work, please become a paid subscriber. Subscribe When it came to the recent Artemis II mission, my cynical side didn’t really see the point. Flying around the Moon and back is literally something we did before I was born, and I once owned a Members Only jacket. Apollo 8 circled the Moon ten times and returned to Earth safely the same month that “Chitty Chitty Bang Bang” was released. What was the point of repeating a feat that far braver people once did with tin foil and slide rules? Yet I’ve surprised myself with how moving I’ve found the Artemis II mission to be. The photos have been stunning. The crew has been professional and engaging. There have been modest but important milestones — the farthest humans have travelled from Earth; the first woman, person of color, and non-American to leave low-Earth orbit; innovations in communication, and more. One thing that really stood out is that this is really NASA at its finest. Not that this is the most important mission they ever pulled off, but they did this in a competent way that celebrated the achievements and kept the crew and the science at the forefront of the project. This wasn’t some billionaire throwing celebrities or cars into orbit as a vanity project — this was a collective effort to send experts in to do a job and come home safely. We don’t see that sort of thing much these days. I’m guessing few people would describe many government agencies as inspiring, but this one counts for me. We’re living through a profoundly anti-science era, in which pathbreaking, lifesaving discoveries like mRNA vaccines are routinely downplayed or even vilified. As I’ve noted previously, this era is something like that of the Red Scare in the 1940s and 50s, in which “egghead” professors were portrayed as out of touch or even hostile to regular Americans. One of the things that helped break that spell was Sputnik — the Soviet communications satellite that demonstrated that the United States was falling behind in crucial scientific research and applications. Its launch triggered a new appreciation for American science and goaded the federal government into supporting research universities and labs. I’m not saying that Artemis is the equivalent of Sputnik, but it potentially reminds people that there’s some value to scientific endeavors and the human faces attached to them. Despite my love for the show “For All Mankind,” I’m far from convinced that there’s any real value to putting colonies on the Moon or Mars that would justify the capital investment and the massive health risks to the astronauts. But sending scientific good will ambassadors on a trip into space once in a while? Bring it. Share
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