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Galaxy devices ditch some image data using AirDrop over Quick Share, fix coming
After a monumental update allowed Galaxy S26 phones to share with Apple’s iOS devices using AirDrop, some users are reporting...
New dining and entertainment concept coming to Commerce City
A new eatertainment venue is coming to Commerce City. From the creator of OverFlyte Denver, the new venue is to feature food, drinks, games, multi-sports and golf simulators, as well as a coffee and ...
TAX DAY: New Report Highlights Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Ohio
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the nation’s leading small business advocacy organization, released a new report outlining the economic benefits and massive tax savings the 20% Small Business Tax Deduction will bring to the 1.1 million small businesses in Ohio now that it has
TAX DAY: New Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Maryland
Learn more about how the Small Business Deduction benefits Maryland.
Anitta, like you've never heard her before. The Brazilian superstar talks new album, 'SNL' and God
Anitta’s upcoming album “Equilibrium” showcases her roots with a vibrant mix of Brazilian funk, samba, bossa nova and more | WBEN
NFIB Report Details Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in California
California Tax Day news release on Small Business Deduction
NFIB Report Details Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Washington
Washington Tax Day news release on Small Business Deduction
TAX DAY: Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction in Iowa
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Iowa
iPhone Ultra is coming: Six new features in Apple’s high-end model
Apple’s first foldable iPhone is coming this fall, and rumors say it will be called iPhone Ultra. Here are six new features to expect.
TAX DAY: Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction in Illinois
NFIB Releases Report Detailing Benefits of 20% Small Business Tax Deduction Becoming Permanent in Illinois
Communicating About Measles for Health Professionals
Join our upcoming webinar to get the latest data, learn evidence-based communication approaches, and get practical tools to help professionals navigate conversations about measles vaccination, respond to concerns, and support informed decision-making.
‘Doc’: Could Felicity Huffman Return as Joan in Season 3?
'We've talked about Joan coming back and being the ghost that haunts the halls of Westside.'
Apple gets serious about its advertising business
Ads are coming to Apple Maps. An Apple Business suite of tools launched this week. Could ads on Apple TV be the next step?
This week in Santa Cruz County business: Paystand’s new partnership, U.S. trade commission to investigate claims against Joby, Dharma’s cry for help
Jessica M. Pasko's weekly column is back with news of local payments company Paystand partnering with a big name, a U.S. Trade Commission investigation in to Joby Aviation, upcoming dates to know, and more.
Overwatch's Switch 2 version is currently missing the promised 60 FPS boost, but a fix is coming soon
The long-awaited Nintendo Switch 2 port of Overwatch is missing its 60 FPS boost despite it being at the centre of the announcement.
TMZ Gets Political
The tabloid TMZ is ripping elected officials with a searing scrutiny beyond even what it usually reserves for celebrities, becoming an improbable fount of accountability.
Scene Calendar: Local theater, live music, dance, PorchFest 2026
Upcoming events in Alachua County include productions of \
Ye postpones Marseille concert after French authorities say they will seek a ban
The rapper formerly known as Kanye West has postponed his upcoming show in Marseille | NewsRadio 1080 KRLD
Ye postpones Marseille concert after French authorities say they will seek a ban
The rapper formerly known as Kanye West has postponed his upcoming show in Marseille | KCBS All News 106.9FM and 740AM
Ye postpones Marseille concert after French authorities say they will seek a ban
The rapper formerly known as Kanye West has postponed his upcoming show in Marseille | 1010 WINS
Is a New $75,000+ Canon Cine-Servo Coming? Rumors Point to a 50-1000mm Refresh for NAB 2026
After a quiet lead-up to NAB, an anonymous tip suggests Canon is about to update its CINE-SERVO 50-1000mm. Could we finally see Full-Frame support and a native RF mount for the new version?
Sony Xperia 1 VIII: Launch details of Sony's new flagship phone surface in the wild
A new leak has now revealed some more information on what to expect from Sony's upcoming flagship smartphone. The Xperia 1 VIII will succeed last year's Xperia VII and could be scheduled to debut on the global market shortly.
US allies won’t join Trump’s war — but they can’t escape the fallout
It’s not their war. But it’s becoming their political and economic nightmare.
Pulse of Politics: Dealing with inflation & Michigan Gubernatorial Debates
Financial Instructor Michael Masserant with the Retirement Education Foundation discusses how we can help our bottom line amid inflation and economic concerns. Plus, Pulse Anchor Roop Raj and Pulse of Politics Host Aaron Jordan discuss the upcoming Michigan Gubernatorial Debates, hosted by FOX 2.
Jump Rope with Bulbasaur in This Limited-Time <em>Pokémon Pokopia</em> Event
A new limited-time in-game event is coming to Pokémon Pokopia, and it’ll have you jumping for joy.
FOX Business’ ‘Made in America’ contest features veteran-owned cycling business
Pedal Guerrero owner Joe Leon discusses his business and journey to becoming a ‘Made in America’ finalist on ‘The Bottom Line.’
This fall’s iPhone 18 launch lineup has one big wildcard remaining
Rumors about this fall’s new iPhone 18 lineup keep coming, but there’s one big question mark still: how many iPhones will Apple launch?
Apple Releases Second iOS 26.5, iPadOS 26.5, tvOS 26.5 and watchOS 26.5 Public Betas
Apple today provided public beta testers with the second releases of upcoming iOS 26.5, iPadOS 26.5, watchOS 26.5, and tvOS 26.5 updates for testing purposes. The public betas come a day after Apple provided the betas to developers. After signing up for beta testing on Apple's beta site, public beta testers can download the updates using the Software Update section of the Settings app on each device.
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson on the city as a prime business and financial destination
Dallas mayor Eric Johnson on why his city is becoming one of the prime destinations for business and finance
WATCH: New trailer, release date announced for \'Hershey\' biopic
In a bit of sweet news — there's a new trailer for the upcoming movie, "Hershey."
A sports blitz starts tonight, plus a WNBA Draft surprise
Good morning! I hope your TV is in working order. Coming up: 📆 A busy stretch begins 1️⃣ Dallas’ surprise at No. 1 🏆 Rory’s family win Up First: The NBA leads off a brilliant spring One of the busiest stretches of important pro sporting events begins tonight, and I mean that in quite a positive way. The NBA playoffs tip off in a few hours, with two Play-In games. This weekend, the NHL playoffs will join. Both sports will crown winners by the third week of June … which is when the World Cup will
A sports blitz starts tonight, plus a WNBA Draft surprise
The Pulse Newsletter 📣 | This is The Athletic’s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Pulse directly in your inbox. Good morning! I hope your TV is in working order. Coming up: 📆 A busy stretch begins 1️⃣ Dallas’ surprise at No. 1 🏆 Rory’s family win One of the busiest stretches of important pro sporting events begins tonight, and I mean that in quite a positive way. The NBA playoffs tip off in a few hours, with two Play-In games. This weekend, the NHL playoffs will join. Both sports will crown winners by the third week of June … which is when the...
Millions of Floridians Will Bear the Brunt of Trump’s Health Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Millions of people in the US are expected to lose their health coverage in coming years because of shrinking funding for federal programs. Few states would suffer a bigger blow than Florida.Enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies expired in December. More than $900 billion in cuts to Medicaid safety-net programs are on the horizon. Across the US, in excess of 14 million people are expected to lose health insurance through 2034, according to health-policy research nonprofit KFF.Flor
The Armory: Restaurant, bar and entertainment venue coming to Maryville
The Armory is a 27,000-square- foot restaurant, bar and entertainment venue coming soon to Maryville
Sparks surprisingly get Latson in 2026 WNBA draft
LOS ANGELES— The Los Angeles Sparks added versatility to their impressive roster by signing three key playmakers who are expected to make game-changing plays this upcoming season.
Paulo Costa and Josh Hokit trade shots on social media
UFC 327 last Saturday was heavyweight Josh Hokit's coming out party. He garnered attention with his media antics leading up to the event and then put on a performance that won't soon be forgotten. Unranked Hokit faced No. 5 ranked Curtis Blaydes in a main card matchup and was part of what some are ...
Trump and New York Are in a Tug of War Over Medicaid Coverage
With tough new regulations looming in the president’s domestic policy bill, officials are coming up with plans to keep New Yorkers insured.
FOX Business’ ‘Made in America’ contest features Steele Saddle Tree
Steele Saddle Tree’s Ed Steele and Allen Holloway discuss their business and journey to becoming ‘Made in America’ finalists on ‘The Bottom Line.’
Swalwell out, new poll could alter April 22 debate lineup
The field for the upcoming Inside California Politics gubernatorial debate is likely to shift following the sudden exit of Rep. Eric Swalwell, who dropped out of the race over the weekend amid alle…
Motorola Razr 70 Ultra specs leak
If you were expecting huge upgrades compared to the Razr 60 Ultra, you'll be disappointed. Last week we saw the upcoming Motorola Razr 70 Ultra in some...
Oregon High School Football: West Linn releases schedule
High school football schedules for the 2026 season are coming out one-by-one out of every state around the country and one that is a breeding ground for college prospects is Oregon, with a number of squads finalizing their fall slates. The top high school football team out of the state of Oregon is the West […]
Xbox CEO called Game Pass 'too expensive for players' in a leaked memo
The new Xbox CEO wrote a memo to employees addressing the current pricing of the Game Pass subscription service and suggesting changes would be coming.
iOS 26.5 beta 2 gives Apple Maps a new ads popup
iOS 26.5 beta 2 arrived today, and it lays the groundwork for ads coming to Apple Maps via a new popup. Here are the details.
Week of the Young Child at Science City
Science City Outreach Education Lead Jordan Fox joins Shane and Kerrigan to share all the details on the upcoming Week of the Young Child.
Hezbollah official says the group won't abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks in the US
A senior Hezbollah official says the Lebanese militant group will not abide by any agreements made in upcoming direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in the United States.
Apple Seeds Second iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 Betas to Developers
Apple today seeded the second betas of upcoming iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 updates to developers for testing purposes, with the software coming two weeks after Apple released updated first betas. Registered developers can download the betas from the Settings app on the iPhone or iPad by going to the General section and selecting Software Update. iOS 26.5 and iPadOS 26.5 do not include new Siri capabilities, suggesting any Siri updates are being held until iOS 27.
Mercer Health Announces 2026 Sports Physicals for Student Athletes
Mercer Health is now scheduling 2026 sports physicals for area student athletes, offering families convenient access to required pre‑participation exams ahead of the upcoming school year. As part of this year’s program, students who complete their sports physical at a Mercer Health Medical Group location will receive a complimentary t‑shirt, while supplies last. Sports physicals […]
Mercer Health Announces 2026 Sports Physicals for Student Athletes
Mercer Health is now scheduling 2026 sports physicals for area student athletes, offering families convenient access to required pre‑participation exams ahead of the upcoming school year. As part of this year’s program, students who complete their sports physical at a Mercer Health Medical Group location will receive a complimentary t‑shirt, while supplies last. Sports physicals […]
Does anyone really want to deal with Kanye West?
A UK ban coming days after selling out two nights in California perfectly encapsulates Ye’s decades long career.
Careful, huge spoilers are out for James Bond game 007: First Light, following an Indonesian Game Rating leak
IO Interactive's 007: First Light spoilers have surfaced online alongside other upcoming video game leaks.
'Beatles vs. Stones' Tribute Show Coming to Rome's Capitol Arts Complex
The Beatles vs. Stones—A Musical Showdown is bringing the ultimate British Invasion tribute to the Capitol Arts Complex in Rome.
Fable still coming out this autumn, despite reports that developer Playground Games is "worried" about Grand Theft Auto 6
Fable is still slated to release this autumn, despite recent delay rumours suggesting it could slip into 2027.
PowerWash Simulator delisting two free DLC packs from Xbox store in May
Developer FuturLab has announced it is delisting two free PowerWash Simulator DLC packs soon, as its partnership with publisher Square Enix is coming to an end.
An 18-game NFL season is coming: Here's how the league can keep the balance right
As the NFL moves toward an 18-game season in the next few years, the NBA's tanking-shaped stretch run offers a recent example of what can happen late in long seasons -- and what the league may need to manage to keep games competitive
4A Games announces Metro 2039, and we're getting an Xbox-themed reveal stream later this week
Developer 4A Games and publisher Deep Silver have announced Metro 2039, the fourth entry in the post-apocalyptic FPS series. A full reveal is coming this week.
France is replacing 2.5 million Windows desktops with Linux - and I mapped out its new stack
Officially, we don't know what France's forthcoming Linux desktop will look like, but this is what my sources and experience tell me to expect.
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
5 live shows bring big‑name entertainment to Northern California
From Bollywood fusion to pop‑punk, reggae and comedy, here some of the top shows coming to Northern and Central California this month.
Seneca Falls Park Launches Suffrage & Science Week
Suffrage & Science Week is coming to Seneca Falls! ♀️ Explore the connection between women's rights and the scientific world at the Women's Rights National H...
'It's incredible, like science fiction': How a new wave of immunotherapy is eliminating cancers
After nearly 100 years of development, treatments that bolster the body's immune system to fight cancer are coming of age – and saving patient's lives.
Rob Marsh to be featured on national TV series 'Next Level CEO'
Rob Marsh, CEO of the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, will be featured on the upcoming season of the business TV series “Next Level CEO.”
From Vision to Reality: Sports Complex Initiative Takes Center Stage at April Greenville-Pitt Power Luncheon
A major community initiative is coming into focus this April, and local leaders will have a front-row seat to the conversation. Andrew Schmidt, President &
Dick’s House of Sport coming to Sarasota. See what it’ll look like
House of Sport, an immersive sports retail concept from Dick’s Sporting Goods, is coming to Sarasota. See photos from recent openings.
Bayern planning second summer signing
After joining Bayern Munich on loan from Gambinos Stars Africa in January, Bara Sapoko Ndiaye finally made his debut for the German champions in their 5-0 win over FC St. Pauli on Saturday, coming off...
UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. Announces Upcoming Investor Webinar
Boston, Massachusetts--(Newsfile Corp. - April 13, 2026) - UberDoc Health Technologies Corp. (CSE: APPT) (FSE: 4KL0) ("UberDoc" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that Sean Kearney, Chief Executive Officer, and Dr. Paula Muto, Founder and Chief Medical Advisor, will present an introduction to UberDoc in a live investor webinar taking place on Wednesday, April 15, 2026, at 11:00 AM PT / 2:00 PM ET.The webinar will be hosted by Cory Fleck of the Korelin Report and provide an overview of...
Upcoming Android flagships may get a bold new look, and you can probably thank Apple
A tipster says next-gen Android flagships are preparing to copy Apple's hero color for the iPhone 18 Pro.
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film 'Hope' to be distributed by U.S. indie powerhouse NEON
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film “Hope” will be distributed in North America by the U.S. indie powerhouse distributor NEON, the movie’s co-producer, Plus M Entertainment, said on Monday.
Report Suggests Potential Detroit Lions Schedule Release Dates
The Detroit Lions 2026 NFL schedule release date is coming in mid-May. Here’s what we know and who the Lions will face.
Xbox Showcase Reportedly Coming Next Week, Metro 2039 May Be Revealed
NateTheHate provides an update on when players can expect the next Xbox Games Showcase. Supposedly, it's coming next week
Oppo officially reveals Find X9 Ultra days before global launch
The Oppo Find X9 Ultra is an upcoming flagship smartphone set to launch globally on April 21. The company's official Weibo account has revealed the device's design ahead of launch, showcasing it in three color options.
Apple reportedly testing four designs for upcoming smart glasses
These glasses are a step back from an ambitious plan that once called for Apple to launch a variety of mixed and augmented reality devices.
End of an era at Apple as Tim Cook’s hopeful hire from Google leaves the company
Apple CEO Tim Cook's hopeful AI hire from Google will be leaving the company this coming week.
‘Aggie docs’ coming to San Antonio’s South Side with new medical collaboration
Texas A&M medical students will begin clinical rotations at University Health’s Palo Alto Hospital and Vida clinic in 2028.
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7 now costs more in the US
This means the Galaxy Z Fold8 coming in a few months could cost even more. The Samsung Galaxy Z Fold7, unveiled last July, is expected to get a successor...
One UI 8.5 rollout possibly delayed for these two reasons
With the 9th beta, Samsung has delayed the One UI 8.5 rollout for the Galaxy S25 series, and these two reasons could be responsible for this move. It’s expected that the 9th beta may not be the final, and we may have a 10th coming soon. These test firmwares may be released in April, and […]
Diggins signs with the Sky; Sabally joins Liberty
Skylar Diggins is headed to Chicago while Satou Sabally is coming to New York as WNBA free agents can officially sign Saturday. Diggins spent the past two seasons with the
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
Maui Health announces CEO transition as Fulton announces departure to be closer to family
Maui Health announced today that chief executive officer Lynn Fulton will step down effective May 3, 2026, to return to central Illinois to be closer to her family. A leadership transition plan will be shared in the coming days.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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