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Streaming service reportedly making pitch to Pacers, several other NBA teams
Report from Sports Business Journal that Disney-owned TV streaming service Fubo to make pitch to Pacers, other NBA teams
21ALIVE SPORTS DIGITAL EXCLUSIVE: Weekly sports wrap up
21Alive Sports Director Andy Newman and sports reporter Nia Hinson catch up on this week’s sports news.
Triller made no money from social media or streaming in 2025
Media company Triller reported it made no money from social media and sports streaming in 2025, and its app won't load.
LPD: Shooting reported at McPherson Road business under investigation
A shooting at a business on McPherson Road left reported injuries as the case remains under investigation, Laredo Police said.
Shooting reported at Laredo business, injuries confirmed
A shooting was reported at a local business in the 9800 block of McPherson Rd., according to the Laredo Police Department.
Wisconsin tornado causes damage but no injuries in Sussex and Lisbon
A tornado caused significant damage to a historic church and businesses in Sussex and Lisbon. No injuries were reported.
LIV Golf's future may hang in balance as execs meet, per report
As its five-year battle with the PGA Tour drags on, the Saudi-backed golf circuit has reportedly called executives in New York for "emergency summit."
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Wednesday, April 15
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
Trial date set for suspects in Kansas City sports reporter’s death
A trial date has been set for the three suspects in connection to a Kansas City sports reporter's death.
Fire reported at Greene County business
A fire broke out at a Greene County business on Wednesday.
AI helps US businesses manage Supreme Court tariff impacts
Generative AI aids US importers with tariff refunds and scenario planning. KPMG and EQI use AI tools to navigate trade compliance and optimize costs.
PGA Sustainability Toolkit Launches With Focus on Bottom Line
The trade group’s latest green production resource offers advice for cutting down emissions on set — and selling that approach to top creatives and heads of department.
Old And Unsupported Kindles Might Become The Best Tech Deal Of 2026
Older Kindles may become the best tech deal of 2026 because they'll get cheaper, and you'll still be able read your favorite books in multiple digital formats.
Exercise and sport science professor advances research on female soccer athletes' health - College of Arts and Sciences
Abbie Smith-Ryan, a professor of exercise and sport science, is partnering with U.S. Soccer's Kang Women's Institute on landmark research initiatives designed to transform how female soccer athletes are supported -- advancing health, performance and long-term participation in the game.
Exercise and sport science professor advances research on female soccer athletes' health - College of Arts and Sciences
Abbie Smith-Ryan, a professor of exercise and sport science, is partnering with U.S. Soccer's Kang Women's Institute on landmark research initiatives designed to transform how female soccer athletes are supported -- advancing health, performance and long-term participation in the game.
Contested Body Counts, Visibility and the (Necro)Politics of America’s War in Iran
Recent focus on a missing US aircrew member and underreported military casualties in Iran reveals a deeper system controlling war visibility.
New Sony PS6 Portable leak confirms one of the biggest features of handheld console
The handheld version of the Sony PlayStation 6, the PlayStation 6 Portable, is expected to launch alongside the main console. With an RDNA 5 GPU and a 6-core Zen 6 CPU, the PS6 Portable is shaping up to be a beastly handheld that will reportedly be able to play games that launched for previous consoles.
Valvoline reveals its FIFA World Cup marketing playbook
Valvoline, an official FIFA World Cup 26 "supporter," is preparing to launch its largest-ever marketing push.
Republicans struggle to highlight Trump’s cuts as Americans see little effect on Tax Day
Republicans had hoped that Trump’s 2025 tax cuts would be at the forefront of voters’ minds, but many have reportedly not noticed a difference
Are Trump's tariffs really dead? Here's what's happening behind the scenes
Importers of European cheese, a sleeping bag company for infants and a ceramics business are pushing for and against potential new tariffs.
Are Trump's tariffs really dead? Here's what's happening behind the scenes
Importers of European cheese, a sleeping bag company for infants and a ceramics business are pushing for and against potential new tariffs.
“There’s a general acceptance” – Sky Sports reporter shares update on Chelsea’s summer plans
Chelsea are expected to be busy in the summer transfer window with a number of positions needing to be filled according to Sky Sports reporter Kaveh Solhekol.DOWNLOAD THE OFFICIAL CHELSEA NEWS APP FOR...
As Vance rallies with Turning Point, some supporters bristle at Trump's war, memes and feuds
Vice President JD Vance used a Turning Point USA event to defend President Donald Trump’s aggression in Iran and downplay the resulting tensions between Washington and the Vatican | WBEN
Dexter Lawrence trade destinations: Giants are reportedly talking with teams after extension talks get stuck with star d-lineman
NFL Reporter Dianna Russini Resigns Amid Mike Vrabel Photos
Dianna Russini has resigned from The Athletic following a wave of controversy tied to photos of her with Mike Vrabel. The NFL Reporter Dianna Russini Resigns Amid Mike Vrabel Photos first appeared on The Blast
Anthropic draws offers from VCs to invest at up to $800 billion valuation, Business Insider reports
Anthropic has received multiple offers from venture capital firms valuing the Claude maker at as much as $800 billion in recent weeks, more than double its current valuation, Business Insider reported on Tuesday, citing sources.
Minneapolis Schools withheld money from employee health plan account for 10 months
The school district’s financial maneuver, which has not previously been reported, risked creating a shortfall in the health care account.
Overwatch launches on Nintendo Switch 2 with performance issues, Blizzard confirms patch in the works
Overwatch just launched on Nintendo Switch 2 today, but things haven’t gone smoothly. Soon after release, players reported issues with the port – notably with performance. Blizzard promised that the new Nintendo Switch 2 version would run up to 60 frames per second. However, some fans thought that the Nintendo Switch 1 version was accidentally uploaded since the action felt...
What Swalwell’s exit means for Democrats in California’s governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer and ex-congresswoman Katie Porter stand to benefit the most in a Democratic field with no clear front-runner, several strategists said.
Roundup: Business optimism / Cleveland’s housing answer / America at 250
Slipping further: U.S. small business optimism fell for a third straight month in March, hitting its lowest level in nearly a year as the Iran conflict drove up energy costs and uncertainty. Owners reported weaker expectations for profits, sales and economic conditions, while plans for capital spending dropped sharply. Rising input costs are also prompting […]
Lucky 8, Sharp Entertainment Producers Ratify Labor Contracts
Nonfiction television staffers at the production companies behind ‘90 Day Fiancé’ and ‘The Food That Built America’ have greenlit new three-year labor deals.
Train tickets to 2026 World Cup matches at MetLife Stadium could reportedly cost over $100
Trans athlete participation measure up for debate
Supporters say the initiated bill seeks to ensure that female high school athletes have a level playing field and private spaces. Opponents say the measure is unnecessary and harmful for transgender students and would burden public schools.
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Tuesday, April 14
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette to stay in business under new nonprofit owner
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette will live on past its slated May 3 closure date, thanks to a new deal with a nonprofit journalism organization.
What happens to the California governor's race after Swalwell's exit?
In a crowded race with no clear leader in the heavily Democratic state, Rep. Eric Swalwell's exit presents an opportunity for his one-time rivals to pick off former supporters just weeks before mail ballots go to voters.
Disney Layoffs Hit Studios, TV, ESPN Under New CEO Josh D'Amaro
"Given the fast-moving pace of our industries, this requires us to constantly assess how to foster a more agile and technologically-enabled workforce to meet tomorrow's needs," the CEO told staff Tuesday.
Xbox Is Having 'Very Big Discussions' About Exclusivity, Says Reporter
"There are very very very big discussions..."
Prep Sports Report: Borchers stepping away from Cooper football program he built as first head coach
By Terry Boehmker NKyTribune sports reporter Randy Borchers is leaving the Cooper football program that he created 18 years ago and developed into a state title contender to devote more time to his family. Borchers said he accepted an administrative position in the central office of the Kenton County Board of Education. That means he’ll...
Maine GOP calls for ban of transgender girls playing on girls sports teams
Republican lawmakers want their supporters to head to the State House Tuesday to speak out against transgender girls playing on girls sports teams.
Swalwell's fall muddles 'unique' Calif. governor's race even more
Katie Porter and Tom Steyer are likely to absorb Eric Swalwell’s support.
How Amazon is expanding its car-sales business
Amazon (AMZN) is expanding its car-sales business to include Jeep, Chevrolet, and other automakers. Yahoo Finance Senior Autos Reporter Pras Subramanian breaks down the details.
Epic Games Reportedly Developing Extraction Shooter Starring Disney Characters
Bloomberg reports that Epic Games is currently developing a Disney-themed extraction shooter as part of the studios' $1.5 billion partnership.
Eliot Wolf: "Business as usual" for Mike Vrabel in Patriots draft preparations
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was not present for the team's pre-draft press conference on Monday, which means that he didn't have to field any questions about the release of photos that have created questions about his relationship with The Athletic's NFL reporter Dianna Russini.
Louisville proposing new sports arena near soccer stadium, per report
Louisville sports officials are reportedly engaged in an effort to build a new sports arena by 2028. The arena would be near Lynn Family Stadium.
WATCH LIVE: President Donald Trump speaks to reporters
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters.
Vermont high school sports scores, results, stats for Monday, April 13
Vermont high school sports scores and results as reported to the Burlington Free Press sports department.
'We are outraged': Pueblo business issues statement after 2 hurt in shooting
A Pueblo business is sharing details about a shooting that took place Sunday night that reportedly injured two people.
Last Of Us Team Believed Crunch Necessary For Games At Its ‘Level’
The team is reportedly crunching again for Intergalactic: The Heretic Prophet
Studio Behind Umamusume: Pretty Derby Reportedly Facing Insolvency
The Japanese animation studio reported a $3.5 million deficit in its latest financial earnings report, following several years of reported losses
Swalwell exits California governor's race after assault allegations
Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell’s abrupt exit from the race for California governor left his rivals scrambling to lock down his former supporters in a crowded contest with no clear leader, injecting more turmoil into the campaign to lead the nation’s most populous state.
New Rules May Allow Broader Picks for CDC Vaccine Panel
By HealthDay Staff HealthDay ReporterMONDAY, April 13, 2026 (HealthDay News) — The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) could soon have a new focus after officials changed the rules that determine who can serve on it. The updated rules were approved by Health Secretary Robert F.
Longtime WDIV sports reporter Jamie Edmonds reveals breast cancer diagnosis
Longtime WDIV sports reporter Jamie Edmonds revealed Monday morning that she has been diagnosed with breast cancer.
Leaker adds support for red iPhone 18 color rumor, in a slightly weird way
Bloomberg reported back in February that Apple was considering a new deep red color option for the iPhone 18 Pro,...
Radiology Partners reportedly eyeing international expansion
America’s largest radiology group has purportedly considered making a bid to buy its Australian counterpart, which tallied over $176 million in adjusted earnings last year.
iPhone 18 Pro Deep Red Color Likely as Android Rivals Prep Same Shade
Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 Pro is very likely to come in a new deep red color, claims a Chinese leaker, because the color is already being prototyped by Android phone makers. In February, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported that Apple is testing a deep red finish for the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max. Rumors of purple and brown finishes have also circulated, but Gurman believes those are just variants of the same red idea.
Zohran Mamdani celebrates ‘pothole politics’ in a raucous rally marking 100 days as NYC mayor
Having just marked his first 100 days as New York mayor, Zohran Mamdani told a roaring crowd of supporters, city workers and political allies his administration has already delivered evidence a democratic socialist can, in fact, govern.
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends campaign for California governor after sex assault allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell faced intense pressure to drop his bid for California governor after reporting Friday that prompted many supporters to drop their support for him
AD Chris McIntosh is reportedly leaving Wisconsin for role in Big Ten office
According to two reports, Chris McIntosh, Barry Alvarez's successor as athletic director, is leaving Wisconsin for a job with the Big Ten Conference.
Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Eric Swalwell ends campaign for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
Rep. Eric Swalwell said Sunday he would withdraw from the California governor’s race in the wake of allegations of sexual misconduct that led to a nearly immediate campaign collapse, as staffers quit and prominent Democratic supporters urged him to drop out.
Iowa basketball set to host Illinois State transfer portal guard
Iowa basketball is reportedly set to host an Illinois State transfer portal visitor next weekend.
Politics Unplugged Podcast: Laura Gersony on the SRP election and Turning Point's impact
Arizona Republic reporter Laura Gersony joins us to talk about the SRP election, and why it was a loss for Turning Point USA. Then Dennis and Colin talk about the President’s threat to end a civilization and Melania Trump's Epstein-focused press conference.
Franklin youth sports event fight; gunfire reported, man arrested
Franklin police arrested a 36-year-old Illinois man on Sunday after a youth sports fight prompted gunshot reports, but investigators say no gun was fired.
Xbox Showcase Reportedly Coming Next Week, Metro 2039 May Be Revealed
NateTheHate provides an update on when players can expect the next Xbox Games Showcase. Supposedly, it's coming next week
Inside Vance’s Iran negotiations: No deal, but ‘friendly’ talks
Vice President JD Vance’s negotiations in Pakistan with Iran failed to end the war, but progress was reported on building goodwill.
Apple reportedly testing out four different styles for its smart glasses that will rival Meta Ray-Bans
Apple's smart glasses could be announced as early as this year, followed by a product release in 2027.
Apple reportedly testing four designs for upcoming smart glasses
These glasses are a step back from an ambitious plan that once called for Apple to launch a variety of mixed and augmented reality devices.
Apple Reportedly Testing AI Glasses in Several Frame Styles
Apple is also considering a camera setup with vertically oriented oval lenses with surrounding lights, Mark Gurman reports.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Coveted transfers Flory Bidunga, Jackson Shelstad reportedly commit to Louisville
Bidunga and Shelstad were two of the top players in the transfer portal.
White Sox reportedly calling up top pitching prospect Noah Schultz
Kings reportedly retaining Doug Christie as coach despite disappointing 2025-26 season
Christie replaced Mike Brown midway through the 2024-25 season
Flory Bidunga reportedly commits to Louisville basketball, Pat Kelsey
Flory Bidunga, who many considered to be the top player in the NCAA transfer portal, has reportedly picked Louisville basketball and coach Pat Kelsey.
Fable PS5 Reportedly Delayed, GTA 6 Could Push It to 2027
Jeff Grubb hears of an internal delay at Microsoft
New report claims Microsoft is considering changing Day One access to Call of Duty on Game Pass
Microsoft is reportedly considering dropping Call of Duty from its Game Pass Day One offering.
Virginia Mercury wins multiple Virginia Press Association awards
The Virginia Press Association recognized the outstanding work of dozens of news publications across the state on April 11 in Lynchburg, with The Virginia Mercury receiving first and second place awards across multiple categories for reporting and column writing in 2025. • Health and housing reporter Charlotte Rene Woods and editor-in-chief Samantha Willis earned the […]
Fever reportedly re-sign Sophie Cunningham to 1-year contract
GSK sees blockbuster potential in targeted cancer therapy after promising early data
British drugmaker GSK's experimental targeted cancer drug Mo-rez has blockbuster potential, its head of oncology research has told reporters, after early data showed the drug helped shrink tumors in patients with advanced, hard-to-treat cancers.
Jon Jones may ‘feel the fire’ to return after UFC 327 but Dana White definitely does not
Jon Jones continues to flip flop on whether or not he intends to retire from the sport, which doesn’t surprise UFC CEO Dana White one bit. White spent the last couple of years glazing Jon Jones as the GOAT of MMA, but that all ended after “Bones” retired in June 2025, reneging on a reported […]
The War With Iran Offered a Snapshot of Trump World. It’s Not a Pretty Picture.
In a roundtable discussion, POLITICO reporters detail how the war in Iran pulled back the curtain on the Trump administration.
FULL SHOW: Inside INdiana Business 4/12/26
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How to Limit The Health Risks Posed by Polluted Air
By Carole Tanzer Miller HealthDay ReporterSUNDAY, April 12, 2026 (HealthDay News) — Air pollution just isn’t what it used to be. While levels of lead and sulfur dioxide have dropped due to environmental regulations, other threats to air quality persist. Particle pollution, ozone and wildfire smoke ...
Follow the spark, choosing new Nashville artists to profile
As a Nashville music reporter, I meet emerging artists year-round. Here's how I decide which rising voices to follow.
Scottie Scheffler blitzed Augusta National. And then a reporter's question
Scottie Scheffler played his best-ever Masters round on Saturday.
How we reported on KY's 4th Congressional District, Massie, and Trump
How The Enquirer reported on the Massie-Gallrein race throughout the congressional district.
Deion Sanders back on the field at Colorado's spring game
After a season that saw Colorado go 3-9, Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders, 58, was hands-on as he watched his team scrimmage on Saturday at the spring game, telling reporters that "I'm good, I'm good," after being diagnosed with bladder cancer last year.
RDC Hosts Free Business Booster Workshop And Intensive Networking Lunch April 14 At SALA
Visit the post for more.
Dianna Russini sidelined by New York Times during investigation into Mike Vrabel photos
Dianna Russini has been sidelined during an NYT investigation after photos surfaced of the NFL reporter with Patriots coach Mike Vrabel, per reports.
'iPhone Ultra' Will Solve Two Key Problems
Apple reportedly plans to unveil a foldable iPhone in September, and the device will supposedly solve two problems with foldable smartphones. In case you missed it, a leaker on Chinese social media platform Weibo recently claimed that the foldable iPhone will be named "iPhone Ultra". According to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, the device will have improved screen quality and overall durability compared to competing foldables.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
High school sports a big focus
Sports reporter Brian Calloway is among the busiest people at the LSJ almost anytime of the year. That's especially true this time of year.
High school sports a big focus
Sports reporter Brian Calloway is among the busiest people at the LSJ almost anytime of the year. That's especially true this time of year.
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