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4 takeaways from the new campaign finance filings: From the Politics Desk
Plus, why the 2028 presidential primaries will likely be jam-packed with candidates.
Johnny Gaudreau among Philadelphia Sports Hall of Fame's Class of 2026
The late hockey star and South Jersey native Johnny Gaudreau will be among the athletes inducted into the Philadelphia Sports Hall of Fame in 2026.
Judge temporarily pauses Ohio’s marijuana law changes for two businesses
COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — A judge approved an emergency motion Thursday to partially pause the enforcement of a new Ohio law with major changes to recreational marijuana. Judge Jeffrey Brown in…
Trump nominates Erica Schwartz as CDC director
The CDC has been going through turmoil and several leadership shakeups under HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
From The Sports Desk: The $140 million man
An examination of the growing MLB trend of teams’ giving unproven prospects megadeals.
RFK Jr.'s peptide policy could boost Hims & Hers as its GLP-1 business evolves
Hims may have an chance to grow peptides business as a potential revenue driver, with FDA review in 2026 shaping the opportunity.
Former NBA player Damon Jones expected to plead guilty in case of illegal sports betting scheme
Jones was accused last year of selling nonpublic information to gamblers for a cut of their profits. He pleaded not guilty to federal charges in November.
Buccaneers have met with Tampa Sports Authority about a renovation of Raymond James Stadium
Raymond James Stadium opened in 1998.
Shoe company Allbirds pivots to AI
In a surprising move, the shoe company Allbirds is fleeing the footwear business and pivoting to AI. The company announced it is changing its name to “NewBird AI” and struck a $50 million agreement to fund the new venture.
Make a Low-Carb or Low-Fat Diet Heart-Healthy with These 3 Foods
In TODAY.com's Expert Tip of the Day, discover a cardiologist-approved way to eat a low-carb or a low-fat diet to prevent heart disease.
Trump administration live updates: N.J. voters head to the polls for special House election
Get live updates and the latest news on the Trump administration as New Jersey voters head to the polls for special election to fill New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill's former House seat and the House votes on protections from deportation for Haitian immigrants.
America's Open for Business
Just over one year into the second Trump presidency, trillions of dollars have poured into American manufacturing, AI infrastructure, energy, and technology. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent makes the case for how the administration’s bold trade policy, deregulation, and America First economics are redefining the United States as the world’s premier destination for capital.
PepsiCo earnings beat estimates as North American food business improves
PepsiCo's quarterly earnings and revenue topped Wall Street's expectations.
Drugmakers raised prices on hundreds of drugs despite Trump deals, Senate Democrats report finds
The findings raise questions about whether the administration’s “most favored nation” deals are having a meaningful impact on patients.
Markets are correctly perceiving that politics will steer rate policy, says CIO
Rich Weiss, CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies at American Century Investments, says that markets are correctly predicting that politics will triumph over economics in pressuring the Fed to cut rates.
This CEO wants to cover weight loss drugs for employees. They're just too expensive.
As demand for GLP-1 drugs surges, employers and insurers are struggling to keep up with the cost. Some are dropping coverage altogether.
Amid ‘constant' data center noise, Sterling residents also worry about health impact
Residents of a Sterling neighborhood already are upset about constant data center noise — and now they have a new concern. A study done for an environmental group shows emissions from the center could have severe health consequences. Operators of the data center say they are fully compliant with state and local rules. Whether it’s daytime or the dead of…
The key deadlines that could shape the future of the Iran war: From the Politics Desk
Plus, an exclusive interview with Sen. Thom Tillis on Trump, the Fed and more.
See inside the mall Chicago wants to shut down due to health and safety concerns
Inside Chicago’s Ford City Mall sits only a handful of open stores as officials seek to have the mall closed due to “imminent” health and safety concerns.
Entertainment company with ties to BTS looking for fresh K-pop stars
A company will host auditions next month in Orange County and LA in hopes of discovering the next biggest K-pop stars.
Life-threatening virus that causes vomiting and diarrhea at high levels in the U.S., CDC says
Rotavirus is highly contagious, fast-moving and especially dangerous for babies and young children. Doctors worry declining vaccination rates could lead to more hospitalizations.
From The Sports Desk: NBA award picks
The NBC News sports staff weighs in on the MVP race, Rookie of the Year and more.
Delaware Democrats push for an earlier primary day
Evelyn Brady, the State Chair of the Delaware Democratic Party, discussed her state's bid for an early primary.
RFK Jr. promotes peptides. Now the FDA weighs easing limits on the unproven chemicals
A panel of outside advisers will review seven peptides at a meeting in July to determine if the unapproved drugs can be safely produced by pharmacies.
Fantasy Basketball: LeBron James, Jalen Duren among notable free agents
In addition to actual free agents, some player option situations will significantly affect fantasy basketball this summer.
In group chats and meetings, Republicans are privately petrified the Iran war could cost them the midterms
Many Republican lawmakers and strategists told NBC News they worry the party has little to run on. “Right now, the voters don’t see a message or a strategy,” a Trump pollster said.
Greenland's prime minister says citizens 'don't feel safe' after Trump's threats
Trump has pushed for the U.S. to take control of Greenland, a semi-autonomous Danish territory, despite being repeatedly rebuffed by Greenlandic and Danish authorities.
Former deputy surgeon general is recommended for CDC director, sources say
The agency has had a tumultuous run during Trump's second term and only had a permanent director for one month last summer.
Chicago mall could be shut down due to ‘imminent' health, safety risks, city says
The city said the building's problems could lead to "creation of a sinkhole and catastrophic structural failure."
The Miami-Dade businesses that lost their licenses over alleged illegal trade with Cuba
Miami-Dade County Tax Collector Dariel Fernández announced new enforcement actions that include revoking business licenses for several companies accused of operating in violation of federal regulations related to Cuba.
'Dr. Pimple Popper' Sandra Lee Recalls 1st Signs of Stroke That She Dismissed
At age 55, Lee had a stroke but initially thought she was tired and stressed from filming her reality show and working as a doctor.
Lena Dunham on New Memoir, Jack Antonoff, Health Issues, More
Writer, director, and actor Lena Dunham joins TODAY’s Jenna Bush Hager and Sheinelle Jones to talk about her new memoir, “Famesick: A Memoir,” where she opens up about her health, experience with fame, and what it means to come of age under the intense scrutiny of Hollywood. Dunham talks about the negative attention she got while starring in “Girls” and how it exacerbated her health issues, reflects on her breakup with Jack Antonoff, and opens up about her battle with pharmaceutical dependency. Dunham also shares the story of how she came to the decision to get a hysterectomy when her endometriosis became unbearable, despite her dreams of being a mother.
A sneak peek into the $20M expansion of Stateside Live! in South Philadelphia
The transformation of Stateside Live! debuts next month featuring a new two-story rooftop lounge, open-air beer garden and performance stages.
Why Warriors have advantage that matters in NBA play-in tournament vs. Clippers
The Golden State Warriors' postseason experience gives them an edge over the Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA play-in tournament on Wednesday.
LaMelo Ball should have been ejected for tripping Bam Adebayo, Heat coach says
Adebayo left the game with a lower back injury after appearing to be tripped during the second quarter.
Live updates: Senate to vote on reining in Trump's Iran war powers
Get live updates and the latest news as Senate votes on reining in Trump's Iran war powers and Vance rebukes Pope Leo over his criticisms of U.S. foreign policy.
Rep. Thomas Massie puts his Republican 'brand' against Trump's in Kentucky
Massie is touting his independence and trying to turn the president into an afterthought as he faces Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein next month in a tough GOP primary.
Why are many Americans turning to AI for health advice
A Gallup poll found that roughly one-quarter of U.S. adults had used an AI tool for health information or advice in the past 30 days.
Apple App Store threatened to remove Grok over deepfakes: letter
In a letter to senators sent in January, Apple detailed how it responded to Grok’s ability to generate sexualized deepfakes.
Democrats aim to keep their special election gains going: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales officially resign.
NY businesses want ‘entertainment zones' during World Cup
New York businesses are asking for “entertainment zones” this summer for the World Cup mania. NBC New York’s Gus Rosendale reports.
From The Sports Desk: Amazing Azzi
Fudd goes No. 1 in WNBA draft, UCLA dominates first round.
Capital One Spark Miles rebrands as the Venture Business. Earn up to 150,000 bonus miles with a new account
The basics of this Capital One business credit card remain the same, but several new perks have been added.
DA wants Sam Altman arson suspect Daniel Moreno-Gama held without bail
Daniel Moreno-Gama allegedly threw a lit Molotov cocktail at OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's home and threatened to burn down OpenAI's headquarters.
Todd Blanche says Americans should be 'happy' Trump is deeply involved in DOJ
The acting attorney general said in an interview with NBC News that he's not concerned when Trump "encourages or directs or expects the Department of Justice to do its job."
Emma Grede, co-founder of Skims, Good American, on how to win in business and at work
Self-made millionaire Emma Grede, who co-founded Skims with the Kardashians, has been both an entrepreneur and corporate worker. She has some tough-love advice on how to succeed in both business contexts.
Ex-interim executive director of Wynwood Business Improvement District accused of theft
The former interim director of the Wynwood Business Improvement District is facing theft charges, authorities said.
Trump deletes Jesus image after backlash
The president claimed he thought the image depicted him as a doctor
The link between ultraprocessed foods and muscle health
People who ate diets that were high in ultraprocessed foods had more fat in between their muscles.
WNBA draft picks are about to get paid like never before: 'It's an incredible time'
This year’s top draft pick is projected to earn $500,000, six times the $78,000 last year’s No. 1 selection was paid.
Sony is Removing Many Popular Features From Its Free OTA TV Options Impacting Free ABC, CBS, FOX, & NBC
Sony has notified owners of its recent BRAVIA television models that significant changes to the built-in TV Guide for its OTA TV antenna users and related menu features will take effect starting in late May 2026. The update affects a range of premium sets released between 2023 and 2025, marking another instance of feature adjustments […]
Why NBC Sports' Connor Rodgers Thinks Indiana CB D’Angelo Ponds Is the ‘Perfect Fit’ for the Jets
Rogers Compares Corner’s Playstyle to Aaron Glenn
Why Phillies should think long term with Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter
The Phillies have two young building blocks in Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter. With labor uncertainty ahead, early extensions would make sense.
Former Pence adviser Olivia Troye runs for Congress as a Democrat
Troye, who resigned from the White House in 2020 and became a vocal critic of President Trump, will run in Virginia's redrawn 7th Congressional District, which is Democratic-friendly.
Novo Nordisk CEO: This is where science meets speed and scale
Maziar Mike Doustdar, CEO of Novo Nordisk, says AI partnership with OpenAI will speed drug discovery and delivery, boost accuracy and strengthen confidence in Wegovy despite rising competition.
Small business optimism falls
CNBC's Steve Liesman reports on the latest small business data.
Philippine president dispels rumors of failing health
Philippine president dispels rumors of failing health
Philippine president does jumping jacks to disprove health rumors
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., 68, said the impromptu workout was meant to ease worries about his health as the Southeast Asian nation struggles with fallout from the Iran war.
Wolf: ‘Business as usual’ for Vrabel
Mike Florio and Chris Simms discuss Eliot Wolf’s comments on Mike Vrabel and examine the state of things in New England as the head coach is drawing headlines.
10 thoughts and tidbits on Sixers vs. Magic play-in tournament game
Ahead of the Sixers’ play-in tournament game vs. the Magic, here are 10 thoughts and tidbits.
Mountain View to consider creating ‘entertainment zones'
The Mountain View City Council will consider a plan that would allow for open consumption of alcohol during specific events.
Dianna Russini situation highlights tension within the New York Times
Masters action shows ongoing sports-betting growth of prediction markets
Sports books are in danger of taking a backseat to prediction markets.
Trump's Iran war deepens the GOP's midterm challenges: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Trump vs. the pope.
Dallas ISD voters to decide largest school bond in state history
On May 2nd, voters living in Dallas ISD will decide whether to pay $33 more a year in property taxes to pay for a $6.2 billion bond package. The plan would build 26 new schools and make major upgrades to facilities and technology at every campus. Lone Star Politics speaks with Miguel Solis, former President of DISD Board of Trustees and now the President of the Commit Partnership.
Construction wraps on California Science Center's building that will house Space Shuttle Endeavour
Mission nearly complete. The California Science Center says construction is finally finished on a building that will house Space Shuttle Endeavour.
Lone Star Politics: April 12, 2026
Texas Senators consider social media ban for children. Plus, we take a deep dive into one of the largest bond elections in the history of the state. NBC 5’s Phil Prazan and Gromer Jeffers with The Dallas Morning News bring you the latest in Texas politics.
From The Sports Desk: Rory’s Repeat
WNBA draft night, league free agency hits overdrive.
Fluoride in drinking water has no effect on IQ or brain function, major study shows
The new research is the first to measure community water fluoridation exposure during childhood in the U.S. and any potential impact on cognition up to age 80.
Eliot Wolf: "Business as usual" for Mike Vrabel in Patriots draft preparations
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was not present for the team's pre-draft press conference on Monday, which means that he didn't have to field any questions about the release of photos that have created questions about his relationship with The Athletic's NFL reporter Dianna Russini.
Wall Street still loves streaming, but are its affections well placed?
While streaming continues to drive media stocks, especially around quarterly earnings, it's not clear when it will start driving profits for smaller players.
Fastenal CEO says business has been ‘slowly ramping up’ since last summer
Fastenal CEO Dan Florness joins 'Money Movers' to discuss an uptick in industrial production, tariff impacts, and more.
Internal OpenAI memo touts Amazon partnership as key driver of enterprise business
CNBC's Kate Rooney reports on an internal OpenAI memo that touts its Amazon partnership as a key driver of its enterprise business.
Live updates: Swalwell drops bid for California governor; Trump and Pope Leo feud
Get live updates and the latest news as Eric Swalwell drops his bid for California governor amid sexual misconduct allegations and Trump feuds with Pope Leo over his criticism of the Iran war.
How the AI and crypto industries are pouring tens of millions of dollars into elections
An analysis of campaign finance reports shows the web of super PACs backing — and going negative — on candidates with funds from big-name executives and companies.
Eric Swalwell drops bid for California governor after sexual misconduct allegations
The Democratic candidate faced immediate calls to end his campaign, with many supporters withdrawing their endorsements.
Santee business owner arrested for allegedly threatening deputies
A Santee business owner was arrested this weekend after allegedly threatening to shoot sheriff's deputies who had responded to reports of gunshots, officials said.
Black Maternal Health Week: The impact of racism and how patients can advocate for themselves
It’s Black Maternal Health Week. Storm Team4’s Jessica Faith spoke with Dr. Tamika Auguste about the impact of implicit bias and structural racism on outcomes for Black mothers and how patients can advocate for themselves.
Masters 2026: Rory McIlroy holds on to win his second straight Masters
McIlroy had a six-stroke lead after two rounds, but entered the final round in a tie for first place. On Sunday, he pulled away on the back nine for his second green jacket.
AIPAC may be a new litmus test for Democratic candidates. Leaders say voters' heads are elsewhere.
Last week's Democratic National Committee meeting illustrated a party trying to stay focused on economic issues while grappling with strong, changing opinions on Israel.
The transformative power of sports with Telemundo and FC Dallas
Players aged 5 – 12 took part in soccer clinics w/ FC Dallas coaches, giveaways & more!
Phillies rookie Andrew Painter scratched from Sunday afternoon's start
Phillies rookie right-hander Andrew Painter was scratched from his scheduled start on Sunday due to a migraine, the team announced.
Some House members say they'll vote to expel Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales
Reps. Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., and Tony Gonzalez, R-Texas, have faced sexual misconduct allegations from former staffers.
Science 4 Everyone: Why aren't your plants growing back after the winter?
Are your plants not growing after winter? You aren't alone. Storm Team4 meteorologist Ryan Miller explains why winter conditions affect your plants.
Cuba leader says island will ‘resist’ U.S. threats, refuses to release political prisoners
“I have no fear. I am willing to give my life for the revolution.”
Cuban leader does not commit to releasing political prisoners amid U.S. demands
In an exclusive interview with Meet the Press, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel is asked whether he is willing to commit to meeting key U.S. demands, including releasing political prisoners and scheduling multi-party elections.
Denver beats Wisconsin 2-1 for its 11th national title and 3rd in 5 years
Denver's Johnny Hicks continued his stellar play by making 29 saves, just two days after a personal-high 49 against Michigan.
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid Iran war fallout
Iraq's parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn't produce a decisive majority.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
A mom and tech entrepreneur building AI advocate for rare-disease families like hers
AI-powered healthcare startup Citizen Health is using the technology to focus on rare disease, helping manage patient lives as well as advance treatments.
How Kodak is trying to turn around its business after teetering on bankruptcy
Photography company Eastman Kodak has seen its fair share of financial struggles, but CEO Jim Continenza is determined to fuel its success.