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El-Sayed's Vow to "Uncap the Payroll Tax" Would Impose a 57% Tax Rate on Michigan Small and Midsized Businesses and the Self-Employed
On Thursday night Democrat senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed vowed to drastically raise the payroll tax on Michiganders by removing the payroll tax cap. "We
How MLB's Proposed Changes Would Impact the A's
MLB's latest proposal would shorten the regular season and make changes to the postseason format — but only if players agree to a salary cap first
What the POWER Act could mean for New York tenants and workers
The POWER Act would expand legal options for New Yorkers facing unfair business practices.
Physician Organizations Oppose Legislation That Gives Health Insurers Unilateral Control Over Out-of-Network Payments
The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) and American College of Radiology (ACR) today expressed strong opposition to the Lower Premiums, Faster Payments Act, legislation introduced by Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) that would eliminate the independent dispute resolution (IDR) process established under the No Surprises Act (NSA) and replace it with payment rates calculated by health insurance companies.
Bipartisan push in Texas hopes to land new U.S. Space Academy
The academy would be modeled after West Point and the Naval Academy to educate and train future leaders of the Space Force.
Trump bucks and the politics of mailing checks
The checks started going out last week, nearly one million of them, and mostly to battleground states. With a return address for the U.S. Treasury and a letter enclosed signed by President Donald Trump, these one-time checks for $500 were ostensibly government rebates for Obamacare enrollees who overpaid. In the accompanying letter, however, Trump attacks his predecessor and talks about his record in office on an important issue he’s not polling well on, which makes it seem more like the most expensive political mailer in U.S. history. The average piece of direct mail costs between 30 cents and $3, according to Mail Processing Associates, a print, mail, and fulfillment company. At $500 a pop plus roughly 50 cents each to issue the paper check, the cost of Trump’s healthcare mailer sent to more than 950,000 enrollees comes in at more than $475 million. Trump’s midterm healthcare message “For years, the Biden Administration overcharged you to fund the operation of HealthCare dot gov,” Trump wrote in the letter. “That money belongs to hard-working Americans, not the Government, and now, I am returning it to you!” In the letter, Trump makes false and misleading claims about his administration’s record on healthcare costs, an issue Democrats have a 20 point advantage on over Republicans, according to a recent poll from KFF, a nonpartisan health policy think tank. Trump touts his administration’s TrumpRX program, which he claims is “delivering massive discounts.” However, new research from KFF found that of a selection of drugs available on the TrumpRX platform, just five were the lowest price, while 13 were the highest price. Trump also falsely claims in the letter that he’s fighting to lower healthcare costs. In reality, average monthly premium payment costs for enrollees rose 58% under Trump while marketplace sign-ups declined 5%, per KFF. Under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, it’s estimated 10 million more Americans will be uninsured by 2034. You get a check and you get a check and you get a check Trump’s long promised cash outs to his fans, from his days as a casino operator and gameshow host to his presidency. During the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the first Trump administration made the unprecedented move to put Trump’s name on checks that went out under the CARES Act (notably the $500 refund checks this time around don’t feature Trump’s name). Ever since, Trump’s been chasing that high. In his second term, Trump’s promised more stimulus that never arrived, like refund checks from DOGE cuts and tariffs, while he said at his party’s convention last month that he’d give out $5,000 checks to everyone if Republicans win in November. In reality, DOGE overstated its cost cutting and Trump’s government actually now spends more than former President Joe Biden’s, while Trump’s tariffs actually grew the trade deficit. His proposal for $5,000 checks would add about $1.2 trillion to the national debt. The problem is there’s no money to give. These $500 checks — plus $90 Medicare rebate checks also going out as well as $250 deposited this week in some Trump Accounts for kids courtesy Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell and his wife Susan — represent the closest Trump’s going to get to making good on his promise to deliver cash fast. And the checks seem especially targeted. Though the $500 checks went out to enrollees in one of 30 states that use the federal HealthCare dot gov marketplace, a Reuters review found 71% of the payments, or $339 million, went to enrollees in 13 states that have the most competitive elections for governor and U.S. Senate. Most Americans don’t buy it Could Trump bucks sway the election? An Economist-YouGov poll found 57% of U.S. adults doubt Trump will deliver on his promise for $5,000 checks, compared to 21% who do. “I’m waiting on my DOGE check and I’m still waiting on my tariff check,” one 2024 Trump voter who’s since turned on him told a recent focus group. “It felt like kind of trying to buy people’s votes, which honestly felt like in elementary when the class president was like, hey we’re going to take you to the water park if you vote for me. It’s like, I don’t think it works like that.” But for voters in swing states who got a check, it could still matter. One survey published in 2022 found receiving a physically personalized check in the mail during the pandemic was associated with a much greater self-reported likelihood of voting for Trump in 2020, and those gains mainly came from out partisans. The issue for Trump comes if these checks are mostly going to Obamacare enrollees whose premiums have gone up by more than just $500 since he took office and who view the money as something like a bribe before the election rather than an actual long-term solution to lowering household costs. Spending $500.50 per mailer would be absurd as a normal campaign expenditure, but since Trump’s checks and letter are a government rebate, his campaign and super PAC didn’t have to spend a dime and he got out his message regardless. If enough voters in key states are swayed by the one-time payment, it could prove to be the best $0 the Trump campaign spent. Subscribe [ ](https://www.yellopolitics.com/p/why-independent-candidates-are-making) [ Why independent candidates are making independence central to their brand ](https://www.yellopolitics.com/p/why-independent-candidates-are-making) Hunter Schwarz · Oct 6 [ Read full story ](https://www.yellopolitics.com/p/why-independent-candidates-are-making) [ ](https://www.yellopolitics.com/p/these-designers-and-grocery-nerds) [ These designers and grocery nerds will brand Mamdani’s NYC grocery stores ](https://www.yellopolitics.com/p/these-designers-and-grocery-nerds) Hunter Schwarz · Oct 2 [ Read full story ](https://www.yellopolitics.com/p/these-designers-and-grocery-nerds) Trump wants to turn his first-ever golf course into a government course for presidents
Online sports betting petitions in Nebraska get another $7 million from DraftKings and FanDuel
National online sports betting apps continue to see a big opportunity with two Nebraska petitions that would legalize and regulate online sports betting in Nebraska, donating a combined $7 million in a two-month period.
FCC considers allowing more political robocalls
The Federal Communications Commission is considering a petition that would allow certain political groups to make robocalls without first obtaining the recipient’s consent. NBC10 Responds Reporter Valeria Aponte Feliciano has more.
Apple announces October 13 event for new smart home products
The rumors were correct once again. In late September, a rumor claimed Apple would be holding a special event on October 13 to unveil new smart home...
Speaker Johnson Floats Leaving Politics to Start ‘Lawn Business’ If GOP Loses House
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) floated an unexpected career change if Republicans lose their House majority in next month’s midterm elections, saying he would be willing to leave politics behind and start a lawn business in his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana.
Speaker Johnson Floats Leaving Politics to Start ‘Lawn Business’ If GOP Loses House
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) floated an unexpected career change if Republicans lose their House majority in next month’s midterm elections, saying he would be willing to leave politics behind and start a lawn business in his hometown of Shreveport, Louisiana.
Alex Rodriguez completely misunderstands ‘Moneyball’ while praising Milwaukee Brewers
In 2003, “Moneyball” took MLB by storm. The book, which chronicles how the 2002 Oakland Athletics won 103 games using a data-driven approach, became the template for how baseball would be played for decades to come. Many of that Athletics team’s core “sabermetrics” tenets still drive strategy in MLB today: prioritizing on-base percentage over batting…
CME expands sports derivatives push with baseball futures
Derivatives exchange CME said on Thursday it would launch the world's first baseball futures.
Panel debates effects increased fentanyl penalties will have on state
A University of Denver panel examined Proposition 132, the November ballot measure that would increase criminal penalties for fentanyl possession and distribution while sparking debate over treatment, prison costs and overdose prevention.
“Boston Blue ”showrunners reveal what it would take to get Tom Selleck on “Blue Bloods” spinoff
“It’s a long, never-ending conversation,” co-showrunner Brandon Margolis said.
Pete Hegseth vows to make first firing squad execution in decades ‘public’
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth vowed in an interview this week that the execution of the man who killed 13 people in a mass shooting at Fort Hood in 2009 would be “public.”
Obama marvels at Democrats’ Senate chances
“There are states right now in play that I would not have imagined being in play,” the former president said.
MLB’s Draft Plan Would Have Cost the Tigers McGonigle
MLB's latest CBA proposal takes aim at the exact draft pipeline that built Detroit's farm system. #Tigers
US suspends visa program for tech firms including Microsoft
The Trump administration said it would suspend an immigration program for multiple tech firms, including Microsoft Corp., alleging widespread abuse of a worker visa system. “There has been no company
Would you trust AI to calculate your true 'biological age'?
Scientists have developed various AI tools to measure people's biological ages. Would you use one?
Eagles’ Pass Rusher Emerges as Potential Trade Candidate Before Deadline
The Philadelphia Eagles and general manager Howie Roseman have never shied away from being active in NFL trade discussions. Over the years, Roseman has had one of the more aggressive mindsets in the trade market. With the 2026 NFL trade deadline coming up after Week 9, it would not be surprising to hear the Eagles […] The post Eagles’ Pass Rusher Emerges as Potential Trade Candidate Before Deadline appeared first on Gridiron Heroics.
Physical Sales Of Wolverine Estimated To Be Surprisingly High For A Company That's About To Ditch Discs
What would it take for Sony to walk the controversial move back?
New Legislation Would Close Loopholes in No Surprises Act, Alleviate Pressure on Health Premiums
This solution is urgently needed for payers and for the public that rank health care costs as their top concern.
PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta: We would not split snacks and beverage business
Ramon Laguarta, chairman and CEO at PepsiCo, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the company’s latest earnings, how consumers are faring amid high inflation, and more.
How a DSA chapter in Austin is building political power
When the socialists filed into the pews of a church sanctuary in Texas, there were far more than would have attended just two years ago.
Can Cristiano Ronaldo reach 1,000 goals without playing for Portugal?
Cristiano Ronaldo’s path to 1,000 career goals could continue even without Portugal, but the milestone would become a club-only challenge. With 21 goals still needed, the 41-year-old forward would have to rely heavily on Al-Nassr while facing a limited window before his expected retirement from professional soccer.
Sandwiches to socialism: How a DSA chapter in Austin is building political power
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — When the socialists filed into the pews of a church sanctuary in Texas, there were far more than would have attended just two years ago.
Atrium Health’s plan contested by state treasurer for legality
(The Center Square) – Nearly 750,000 teachers, state employees, retirees, lawmakers active and retired, and members of higher education on Tuesday learned Atrium Health’s Affordability Protection Program would help provide
Editorial: What would socialist policies mean for the middle class?
With Election Day less than a month away, voters should look beyond campaign slogans and ask what the policies on the ballot would mean for families who built their lives
Open science is compatible with research security, says Canada’s chief science advisor
Open science is “not incompatible” with research security and science leaders and policymakers should “demystify” the false dichotomy between the two, according to Mona Nemer, Canada’s chief science advisor. More than a decade ago, EU policymakers were promoting open science, open innovation and open collaboration across the world. It was a political movement that aimed to make scientific research, data, software, publications and methodologies transparent, accessible and reusable for everyone.But that rhetoric has changed over the past few years. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and Donald Trump came back to power in 2025, international partnerships have become more pragmatic. Countries are trying to implement protectionist policies and governments are increasingly worried about technology espionage. According to Nemer, science can remain open if the sector can come up with improved security protocols that would protect research data from undue manipulation by foreign actors. “If anybody can fiddle with the with the data, then [open science] is actually quite dangerous and quite useless,” she told Science|Business. Universities and research institutions are increasingly vulnerable to attempted espionage and other types of foreign interference. In September, the UK’s domestic counter-intelligence service MI5 issued a security warning against collaborations with the China General Technology Research Institute. And earlier this year, Germany’s Helmholtz Center for Information Security was criticised by federal research minister Dorothee Bär, who told a parliamentary hearing that “existing rules and systems” at the institute “were not suitable” for preventing leaks to China. According to Nemer, universities and research institutions should perhaps follow the example of the private sector, as companies have been able to safeguard their research while still publishing results. “I think that there is a level of research security hygiene that researchers and institutions need to just adopt,” she said. “You don't have to tell Sanofi or IBM how to safeguard their research, which they end up publishing anyway.”While certain areas of research will not be open for collaboration with certain partners, in other areas cooperation is necessary even with researchers based in adversarial countries. “I stress this because politics change,” she said. “Science and politics don't make for good fellows, and whether we like it or not, politics will influence certain things.”Researchers will play an important role in “protecting the integrity of science,” said Nemer. “I think that it's time that there's a commitment to a certain scientific compact, so that citizens don't think that science is actually an open door for espionage and for anti-nationalism.”New partnershipsNemer spoke with Science|Business on the margins of the Hamburg Science Summit on September 17, the day when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called for increased cooperation with the EU, including in science and technology. Canada is looking to strengthen ties with partners in other corners of the world, after the Trump administration threatened to put tariffs on Canadian goods and services and even openly suggested Canada could become the 51st state. In parallel, the US government has indicated it wants to retreat from international science projects, including US collaboration with Europe’s CERN particle accelerator and other big science labs.Related articlesThe stats we need to better understand R&DCanada looks to deepen research and education links with the EUCan researchers trust that AI models won’t leak their ideas?Nemer said the US is still a science “powerhouse,” but Canada and Europe will have to work closely together on global challenges. “It’s important for both [sides], but I think it's also important for the rest of the world, because the cut in funding for development, in health, in regions like Africa and other places, have dramatic effects.” The Trump administration is also planning a review of the Nelson memo, a Biden-era document that mandated that results of federally funded research would be openly available. With that idea being called into question, Nemer said it could be “very disruptive” to scientific collaborations and could jeopardise research on climate change, the Arctic and global health. “When your collaborator suddenly tells you I'm not going to share the data with you as a researcher, if this happens, I think it's very worrisome,” she said. “I'm certainly hoping that a lot of the Canadian institutions, funders, researchers, have started looking at joining forces on databases and using more European research infrastructures,” Nemer added.
Concern after Europeans endorse US science agenda
Germany’s biggest research funder has said it is “concerned” after Berlin, plus several other European countries, endorsed a controversial US-led science policy statement. On October 4, the White House announced that 16 countries, including Germany, the UK, Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Poland, Japan and South Korea had backed the Kyoto Vision for a Golden Age of Science.The document, agreed on the margins of the annual Science and Technology in Society forum in Kyoto, which gathers science ministers from across the world, appears uncontroversial at first sight. It’s a one-page statement, without any concrete measures, that touches on reducing administrative burden on scientists, experimenting with new funding models and the use of “super intelligence” in science, the Trump administration’s preferred term for artificial intelligence. However, what’s controversial is that much of the language in the Kyoto Vision reflects Science: A New Golden Age, a major policy document released by the White House in July.That document attracted criticism for deriding universities as “legacy institutions” and suggesting money be diverted to new research labs. In a speech in Kyoto on October 4, Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office for Science and Technology Policy and the report’s author, said that the US was seeking to “diversify the ways that we support research to meet our best scientists where and when they do their best work.” The worry is that the Trump administration may be using genuine dysfunctions in academia as a pretext to defund and disempower universities, which US vice president JD Vance has labelled “the enemy.” Many in Europe also want more experimentation and reform of how science is organised and funded, and agree with criticisms of academia made by Science: A New Golden Age. But some also fear that if the US pushes for reform partially in bad faith, it could politicise and undermine the whole agenda. Washington is currently trying to change federal funding rules so that political appointees can block and cancel scientific grants. It has cut grants mid-project on topics related to diversity and other politically forbidden areas. And last year, it threatened to cut Harvard University’s federal funding unless it admitted a “critical mass” of new faculty and students to create campus “viewpoint diversity.” “Particularly concerned”Because of this wider US political context, the Kyoto Vision’s otherwise innocuous sounding statement that “we encourage experimentation with new institutional models for science that provide varying levels of autonomy, resources and direction” has caused consternation in Europe, particularly from some of Germany’s biggest science organisations. A spokesperson for the German Research Foundation (DFG), the country’s biggest funder, said that it would “closely monitor whether the current US administration uses the Kyoto Vision to restructure research funding to the detriment of research institutions such as universities and their autonomy.” The DFG was “particularly concerned” with the statement’s references to Science: A New Golden Age, they continued. A spokesperson for the German Rectors’ Conference, which represents the country’s universities, said that the reference to “new institutional models” raises “questions on the underlying understanding of academic freedom and autonomy.” Research funding must “guided first and foremost by scientific not political principles,” they went on. Dampen criticismEuropean endorsement of the Kyoto Vision might dampen domestic criticism of the Trump administration’s science policy, some in the US fear, by suggesting international support. “What we saw from Germany, Japan, the UK and other countries, is an impulse that the administration has exploited with our own science reform movement, a belief they can use dialogue to make things better,” said Cole Donovan, director of science policy at the campaigning group Stand Up for Science. “In practice, the administration has done the opposite.” Not a binding statementThere’s been so much concern in Germany that the country’s federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space put out a statement defending its endorsement of the Kyoto Vision, which it has posted on its website. Related articlesIs metascience being co-opted?European researchers sound the alarm that Trump rule changes will hit cooperationThe US ‘golden age’ science strategy: what Europeans need to know The ministry said that it “should be regarded as a basis for discussion and does not constitute a binding statement.” Backing the statement gives Germany the chance to raise “issues and concerns” with the US during upcoming talks on science and technology scheduled for November. “Although these intentions appear, in principle, to be worthy of support, they will be scrutinised and examined more closely as the process continues,” the statement continues. Super intelligence?A ministry spokesperson confirmed to Science|Business that Germany had broadly endorsed the Kyoto Vision.However, they said Berlin had not agreed to final changes in the statement to refer to AI as super intelligence. In September, facing protests against data centres and polling that suggests US citizens are far more concerned than excited by the technology, Trump issued an executive order that attempts to rebrand AI as super intelligence, following polling on social media.The name change is to “reflect the transformative capabilities of these technologies and the limitless opportunities they create for the American people,” the order says. EU askedThe UK and Italian science ministries did not respond to a request for comment on their endorsement of the Kyoto Vision. Although most EU countries did not endorse the statement, it’s not clear which states the US asked. The White House Office for Science and Technology Policy did not return a request for comment. A European Commission official, speaking under condition of anonymity, said that the US had approached the EU, but too late for the EU to quiz all its member states on whether Brussels should endorse the statement.
What is attribution science? The critical climate research that Big Oil would rather you didn't believe in
How an emerging field of research is fueling a major Supreme Court case that may hold fossil fuel companies liable for climate change.
Phillies News: Alex Cora, Don Mattingly, Sam Fuld
You there! Would you like to manage the Philadelphia Phillies?
Preview: Bruins look to get back on track against Utah
Not losing 4-1 would be a reasonable goal.
PepsiCo to cut costs as weak N.America business hurts annual core profit forecast
Oct 8 (Reuters) - PepsiCo said on Thursday it would pursue additional cost cuts after lowering its annual core profit forecast due to sluggish demand for its snacks and beverages
PepsiCo to cut costs as weak N.America business hurts core profit forecast
Oct 8 (Reuters) - PepsiCo cut its annual core profit forecast on Thursday and said it would pursue additional cost cuts, warning that efforts to revive growth and profitability in its crucial North American business were taking longer than expected.
PepsiCo to cut costs as weak N.America business hurts annual core profit forecast
PepsiCo said on Thursday it would pursue additional cost cuts after lowering its annual core profit forecast due to sluggish demand for its snacks and beverages in North America and rising input costs.
Democrats, with House majority, would go big on healthcare
House Democrats are promising immediate action on healthcare next year if they flip control of the chamber in the midterm elections. Party leaders say health costs are a foremost priority of their …
How political polling went astray and became a partisan tool
Modern polling faces a crisis of credibility as both the method as well as the partisan bent of surveys of would-be voters taint results.
Gurman: OLED MacBook Pro Won't Be 'Significantly Thinner'
Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has walked back somewhat on his previous reporting that Apple's upcoming touchscreen OLED MacBook Pro will be thinner than current models. "I don't think it'll be significantly thinner in the end," he posted on X late Wednesday in reply to a question about the machine, which is expected to launch later this month. In October 2025, Gurman reported that the OLED MacBook Pro models would have "thinner and lighter" frames.
The Math Singularity Is Here, and Science May Be Next
OpenAI has released an extraordinary body of mathematical work produced by an unreleased frontier model: 722 manuscripts spanning 372 research families across fields including number theory, complexity theory, and mathematical physics. Each result required, on average, the equivalent of roughly three hours of ChatGPT Pro reasoning. A New Era of Discovery We may be witnessing the beginnings of a “math singularity”: a point at which machine-generated discovery accelerates beyond humanity’s ability to independently reproduce, verify, or fully absorb it. If frontier models can generate hundreds of meaningful results in the time it takes a human researcher to investigate one, the constraint will no longer be producing new mathematics. It will be our capacity to validate, interpret, and integrate it. This does not make mathematicians obsolete. It changes their role. They may increasingly serve as guides, critics, and meaning-makers. Increasingly, they will decide which questions matter, determining which results can be trusted, and explaining why they are important. Mathematical insight may become abundant, while human judgment becomes more valuable than ever. Mathematics May Be Only the Beginning Every scientific discipline could eventually experience a similar acceleration. AI systems could generate and test hypotheses, connect findings across specialized fields, and explore possibilities at a scale no human research community could match. In medicine, imagine models identifying overlooked disease mechanisms, designing drugs and clinical trials, personalizing treatments, or discovering cures in months rather than decades. In materials science, AI could help create better batteries and cleaner industrial processes. In climate science, it could accelerate advances in energy, forecasting, and carbon removal. In biology, it could uncover relationships hidden across enormous genomic and molecular datasets. The result would not simply be faster research. It could expand the frontier of what is scientifically possible. The New Bottleneck Scientific discovery, however, is not the same as scientific progress. A medical breakthrough must still survive laboratory testing, clinical trials, regulatory scrutiny, manufacturing constraints, and real-world deployment. As machine-generated ideas multiply, the bottleneck may shift from producing breakthroughs to validating them safely and translating them into practice. We may soon have more hypotheses than laboratories can test, more drugs than clinical trials can evaluate, and more mathematical results than experts can review. That imbalance will require better systems for automated verification, reproducible research, prioritization, peer review, and collaboration between AI and domain experts. The importance of OpenAI’s work is not merely the number of manuscripts produced. It offers a glimpse of a world in which intelligence can explore thousands of intellectual paths in parallel. If ideas cease to be scarce, humanity’s defining challenge will be deciding which are true, which matter, and how to turn them into progress. The math singularity is not the end of human inquiry. It is the beginning of a new kind—one in which machines expand the frontier of knowledge and humans decide where it should lead. Subscribe Share Leave a comment
Gimme Him: One player Commanders would steal from Giants
There is one player the Washington Commanders would love to steal from the New York Giants in their Week 5 matchup.
Penguins Ghastly Giveaways Give Capitals Big Win
WASHINGTON, D.C. — It was the final time Alex Ovechkin would be introduced for a Washington Capitals (2-1-0) home opener. […]
Trump says he won't let Iran strike L.A. or San Diego: 'Not going to let that happen'
Trump told a Texas rally that the U.S. would not allow Iran to strike Los Angeles or San Diego, two days after his remarks on the subject stirred outrage among California leaders.
RFK Jr. Plans Vaccine Injury Initiative, Drawing Wary Eye From Experts
Vaccine safety experts say more research into the side effects would be welcome yet question whether the health secretary’s effort will be grounded in science.
Who Won August and September: Original Films or Franchises?
(Welcome to the Entertainment Strategy Guy, a newsletter on the entertainment industry and business strategy. I write a weekly Streaming Ratings Report and a bi-weekly strategy column, along with occasional deep dives into other topics, like today’s article. Please subscribe.) I just heard someone say that if you’re reading a pundit or data analyst, and they don’t tell you that they got anything wrong, they’re not a pundit but an “influencer”. I agree with that. You have to tell your audience when you get things wrong, or they won’t (or shouldn’t) trust you as much. Today, we’ve got another edition of “What I Got Right, What I Got Wrong”. In general, I’m patting myself on the back (and patting very hard) about a few things like IP at the box office, LIV golf, horror films, crowdfunding movies, superheroes, and old people going to the theaters. That said, I also made a couple of data mistakes on the streaming bubble popping and HBO’s datecdotes, so I’m not perfect. But first, I need your feedback... Subscribe Follow-Ups: What Should We Call Mid-Budget Movies Which Aren’t Cinematic Enough for Theaters But Are Too Expensive to Make Money on Streaming? After I asked for feedback on what we should call straight-to-streaming films that are too big to pencil out on streaming but not really big enough to resonate in theaters, I got some great suggestions from you all, including... “Moldilocks” from John Aboud “Little Big Indie” from Travis Frick1 “Midflicks” from Jonathan Funke. “Extra-Medium” from Jona Nwuke. (Read the explanation in the footnote.) Between these and Brandon Katz—who suggested “Bermuda Budget Triangle”, “The Platform Gap” and “The Distribution Deadzone”—we’ve got some excellent suggestions. And they’re better than my suggestion, the “Streaming Budget Dead Zone”, so let’s take a poll! The winning entry becomes the new term. Loading... RIGHT: LIV Golf is Fully Bankrupt…Is Anyone Else Next? A few years ago, I was always a bit perplexed at all the articles I’d read praising LIV Golf and their strategy to disrupt the PGA. LIV Golf, a brand new professional golf league, offered PGA stars ten times what they made on the PGA Tour to join their new league. And folks praised this strategy for its initial “success” in that a lot of big names did indeed leave the PGA. Yeah, of course the players came over. LIV Golf paid them so, so, so much more! But LIV Golf hadn’t discovered a way to increase potential revenue. So think about this in basic business terms… They paid much more in costs… …but had no real way to increase revenue. That’s not a strategy! That’s deficit financing. It won’t work unless you bankrupt the competition (and then turn around and pay those same golfers much, much less). It’s not a sustainable strategy and only lasts as long as the company/person/nation backing it decides they’re cool with losing money. For LIV Golf, that meant Middle East oil wealth, in particular Saudi Arabian money. Clearly, the current Iran War has hurt Middle East finances, so they need to trim their more exorbitant spending. And LIV Golf was part of that trimming. This should be a major warning for others. TGL’s parent company, TMRW Sports, just got a $1 billion valuation, despite TGL’s (the indoor golf league) horrible TV viewership of less than half a million viewers per match. Unrivaled, the women’s basketball league, just secured a $650 valuation, despite its horrible TV viewership and a new rival (Project B) entering the scene next year. To relate this to streaming, Hollywood should ask which streamers may have wealthy patrons funding their losses. (Let’s be clear: Google, Amazon and Apple.) Could those patrons lose their appetite? For Amazon, probably not. But Apple has a new boss, so maybe! WRONG: My Analysis of the Streaming Bubble Was Missing a Week I’m going to be congratulating myself a lot today, but I make mistakes too, like this data goof. When I last compiled the data on the decline in TV shows, I was missing one week at the end of June. If you look at the first image, you can see that one week was mislabelled as “July”. Mainly, this image got updated to show a 27% decline, not 29%: This change doesn’t really impact the overall analysis, but it is two percent better. By the way, through the third quarter, the decline increased and it’s now a 30% decrease since 2022. (I’ll write/visualize this in an upcoming article.) But I want you to trust me and my data. Especially these days, when many people are using LLMs that I know are inserting faulty data into their charts, I want to keep earning my audience’s faith. So that’s the accurate data. RIGHT: IP Remains Very, Very Popular In July, I wrote a giant (and I mean giant) article on Backrooms, Obsession, and the box office, going over what we know, what we don’t know about what works in theaters, looking at YouTubers, IP, the horror genre, comic book movies, and a whole lot more. The month of August really tested a lot of my theses and, being honest, mostly supported my arguments. Let’s start with IP. Looking at 8-Aug (the weekend after Spider-Man: Brand New Day came out) to 18-Sep (the weekend that Resident Evil came out, which I think provides a nice bookend to this time period), there were seven films based on pre-existing IP: Resident Evil (2026) ($126 million) Practical Magic 2 ($65 million) _Insidious: Out of the Furthe_r ($65 million) Coyote Vs. Acme ($59 million) Paw Patrol: The Dino Movie ($53 million) Tony ($15 million) Super Troopers 3 ($7 million) Compare those to the notable original films from the past month—I actually could have included more movies, but here are just thirteen, bringing us to an even twenty films—including.... The End of Oak Street ($54 million) Buddy ($26 million) Mutiny ($15 million) By Any Means ($15 million) The Dog Stars ($14 million) Runner ($14 million) One Night Only ($11 million) Hope ($8 million) Spa Weekend ($7 million) The Uprising ($6 million) Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma ($6 million) Onslaught ($3 million) Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man ($2.8 million) Here’s that in chart form: Five of the top six films in this time period were all based on IP. I made a big chart of films that grossed over $200 million at the box office before Spider-Man: Brand New Day and The Odyssey hit theaters. Let’s update that chart! By the way, if you want to see how I categorized each film—so another bar chart—here it is: I know that many of my fellow critics/pundits/analysts dislike films based on IP and how Hollywood is making so many of them. And I’m sympathetic to this point of view. As I’ve written many, many times before, you need a balance between existing franchises, new IP, and original films. And Hollywood clearly needs to make more films like Resident Evil (a well-made film from a visionary director) and fewer Practical Magic 2’s (which didn’t get critical or customer buzz). But at some point, critics and pundits need to contend with what audiences are telling them: Movie-goers aren’t showing up to original films. Audiences are speaking with their dollars, telling you they want more IP and franchises. You can try to convince studio heads to make fewer IP-based films and franchises, but the data and numbers aren’t there. Instead, critics need to work harder to convince audiences to show up for original films. Aim your ire/concern at the average person, not studio heads.2 Because they’re just making the films that audiences are telling them to make. WRONG: Original Horror Films Didn’t Break Out I’ll be honest, even though I wrote an article casting some skepticism on the horror genre in July, if you asked me to make a prediction, I would have predicted that, in August, a new, original horror film would have blown up. No, seriously, I just assumed that Obsession and Backrooms presaged a change in audience behavior. But none of the buzzy new original horror films from August—Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma, Onslaught (not an action film in spite of the ads), The End of Oak Street, Eli Roth’s Ice Cream Man, or _Buddy—_broke out. To be clear, exactly one of those films (Buddy) had good “ROI”, but again—I try to be specific in my language—none were “popular” in any broad sense of the word. None of them will be “saving” movies theaters like Backrooms or _Obsession_helped save the summer. The new Insidious film and Resident Evil, both based on IP, were far and away the biggest horror films since July. (We’ll see if this changes in October/Halloween season.) RIGHT: Stay Skeptical about Crowdfunding... I’ve long been skeptical about crowd-investing platforms as one of Hollywood’s saviors, mainly because there’s so much hype/buzz. People need to stay more skeptical about more things, explaining both the potential upside but also the downsides. In particular, the media often hypes crowdfunding at the start and never checks in on the actual results after they’ve come in later. And August gave us our first update! _Ice Cream Man—_directed by Eli Roth—grossed $6 million off of a $5.5 million budget. This is a production of The Horror Section, which was one of the first “crowd investing” studios with 2,400 investors, which means that 2,400 investors probably lost money. They certainly aren’t getting as great of returns as if they had just invested their dollars in the stock market. Hopefully Stiletto (Tagline: “Someone’s Going to Make it Rain Blood!”) does better next month. WRONG: Another Data Goof Here’s another data error. When the first episode of House of the Dragon came out, HBO put out that it had 21.5 million viewers in the first three days, and I read that to mean in the US…but no, it was global. So my US-only datecdotes charts shouldn’t have included it. We never got US-only numbers for the first episode, but for the final episode, HBO put out that it had 11 million US viewers. (And that global dropped to 21 million viewers.) Here’s the updated chart (which I’ve since used in the Streaming Ratings Report): Still, this show is absolutely huge. RIGHT: Superhero Films Remain Very, Very Popular After Supergirl flopped, I read a few takes that “comic book movies are going the way of the Western”. Post-Spider-Man: Brand New Day, that take didn’t age well. To be fair, I have a very nuanced take on the superhero genre right now; it’s down right now, for a lot of reasons. But it’s not “dead”. Maybe _Spider-_Man is just a really popular character? I saw that take, and it’s a fair counter-argument. (But pundits arguing that superhero movies were dead should have mentioned this $1.5 billion counter-argument…) But is it just Spider-Man? The next Avengers film already has $50 million in pre-sales (and I was skeptical that that film would do well) and the Avengers: End Game re-release topped the box office two weekends ago (over three original films). And I wouldn’t bet against Batman or Superman. So maybe it’s just Spider-Man, Batman, Superman and the Avengers. Oh, and Deadpool, of course. And Black Panther. And Wolverine. And probably the X-Men. Plus a well-made Wonder Woman or the Hulk film could break out. But that’s it! It’s just those ten characters/teams. Oh, what’s that? Lanterns is also doing well on HBO? (See previous section…) To be fair, I’m actually pretty sympathetic to the argument that more popular characters—like Spider-Man and Batman—anchor more popular films. In fact, I made that exact argument three years ago when I first wrote about the “Marvel-cession”. In many ways, you can blame The Guardians of the Galaxy for fooling Marvel Studios (and the rest of us) into believing that any character could pop. It turns out, the list of iconic characters is probably smaller than most people think. But it’s probably too early to say that superhero films and comic book movies are dead unless “death” means a slight decline over a longtime. RIGHT: Who Killed Theaters? Old People I get frustrated whenever I see headlines or analysis about how young people are “returning” to theaters. As I’ve detailed(for years), young people have always powered the US box office, despite narratives about “kids these days” and their “phones”. Really, what’s changed post-2020/pandemic is that old people aren’t going to the movies nearly as much. This summer, I saw a movie (from an older director) in a theater near a retirement community, and multiple older people at the theater were talking about how this was their first time seeing a movie in years. I dislike personal anecdotes, so YouGov can fill in the data, best summarized by this headline: “Who killed movie theaters? Not the youths”. According to them, 64% of people aged 18-29 have seen a movie in the last year, but only 30% of 65-and-older. 20% of 18-29 have seen a movie in theaters in the last week and 42% in the last month. Here’s the polling data: Most concerning? Many Americans (17%) think theaters are a worse or much worse experience than watching films at home. Slight WRONG: Hadestown Opens Big A live theater capture of the Broadway musical, Hadestown, made $20 million at the US box office, which begs the question: was I wrong to be skeptical about musicals a few years ago? Yes and no. On the one hand, $20 million is a far cry from being “popular”, so yeah, the genre isn’t that popular overall and Hadestown is one of the more popular musicals from recent years (i.e. the “Taylor Swift Data Fallacy” in action). On the other, I doubt filming this cost all that much, and I don’t think that they spent much on marketing, so this is a good source of ancillary revenue. Smaller Updates WRONG: As I mentioned in a Streaming Ratings Report, I underestimated the budget for Enola Holmes 3. It probably cost more like $50 million, if not more. But... I’m not sure that it really matters? At sub-10 million hours, prices have to come down to make this work. WRONG: Netflix is giving Ink a 27-day in theaters! To quote the kids/YouTubers these days, let’s go! Now I might actually have a chance to see Danny Boyle’s latest in theaters. I’d complained about this in a “Coming Soon” section, but I was heartened to read that Netflix is giving multiple films longer theatrical windows this year. RIGHT: Netflix is sending 4-5 films per year to theaters. Netflix is slowly but surely sending more and more films to theaters, as I cautiously predicted earlier this year. For now, it’s just three big films and a number of awards contenders, but still, this is great news. And they’ll be releasing box office grosses! Just this week, Ted Sarandos confirmed that KPop Demon Hunters 2 will come to theaters (and my guess is it performs in the box office top ten at a minimum). WRONG: Angel has 3 million subscribers! How do I know this? Well, they told Deadline, who reported it. I marked this as “wrong”, since they’ve doubled their subscribers in one year but, you know, they don’t really have a hit film to speak of and they’re still losing money. WRONG: Furious was only renewed for one more season. I accidentally wrote “two more seasons” in my latest “Renewals, Cancellations, Un-Orders and Removals Update”. RIGHT: House of David is ending with its third season. In July, Prime Video renewed House of David for a third season, as I just wrote in my latest “Renewals and Cancellations” report. Well, now it’s ending after that third season. Why? As I’ve been writing, its viewership wasn’t great. I got feedback that this show didn’t cost very much, but it cost enough that its limited viewership didn’t save it. WRONG: Adults was a Hulu original! So I missed Adults when it first came out last year; I saw that it aired on FX and just assumed that it was a linear-first program. Turns out, it aired three episodes on FX, but binge-released the rest of its episodes the next day on Hulu. Huh. So I should have covered it last year! But I just wrote about it. 1 “When I was a kid in the 90s, if you wore a t-shirt to school that wasn’t too big and also wasn’t too small, but somehow didn’t quite fit, we’d say you were wearing an “extra-medium” shirt.” 2 As always, a huge exception is Disney, which barely makes anything original anymore.
Eagles Get Discouraging Saquon Barkley Update Despite ‘Not Major’ Injury
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley is dealing with a hamstring injury he suffered in Sunday’s 24-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. ESPN lists his status as questionable ahead of Week 5. Head coach Nick Sirianni gave no update on Monday and said more answers would come Wednesday. Despite the lack of official details, […] The post Eagles Get Discouraging Saquon Barkley Update Despite ‘Not Major’ Injury appeared first on Gridiron Heroics.
Proposal would add properties to downtown Business Improvement District
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Zeldin announces EPA proposal to support cleaner air and business growth in Arizona
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin visited Arizona Tuesday to announce proposed approval of Maricopa County Rule 204, an emissions-reduction program intended to help businesses invest and expand while improving air quality. The announcement followed a roundtable with business leaders and elected officials. Rule 204 would allow qualifying voluntary emissions reductions from nonroad engines and equipment to […]
Samsung backtracks on SmartTag 3 Android support — still locked to Galaxy phones
After earlier this week claiming that its new SmartTag 3 would support non-Galaxy Android phones, Samsung says that won't happen, after all.
Trump says he'll fire advisers LaCivita, Blair 'if there's a conflict'
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would immediately fire his advisers Chris LaCivita and James Blair "if there's a conflict," following a New York Times report that the two political operatives visited the Bosnian territory of Republika Srpska.
Trump says he'll fire advisers LaCivita, Blair 'if there's a conflict'
WASHINGTON, Oct 7 () - US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would immediately fire his advisers Chris LaCivita and James Blair "if there's a conflict," following a New York Times report t...
Trump Says He'll Fire Advisers LaCivita, Blair 'If There's a Conflict'
WASHINGTON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he would immediately fire his advisers Chris LaCivita and James Blair "if there's a conflict," following a New York Times report that the two political operatives visited the Bosnian territory of Republika Srpska. The ...
KQC Quantum and Charlton Aria Agree on Nasdaq Business Combination
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Voters to decide if Montana judiciary needs to be more political
Initiative would preserve Montana’s nonpartisan judiciary in the state constitution following 2025 legislative attempts to change them.
Formula 1: Max Verstappen says sport 'less stressful' without Christian Horner, speaks on whether he would drive for Ferrari and his new contract
Max Verstappen on F1 post Christian Horner: It is not as spicy but I quite like how things are going with everyones behaviour, lets put it like that; Verstappen says it is not my concern if Horner returns to sport; watch Singapore Grand Prix weekend live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday
Chase for Business Expands Its Integrated Digital Experience with Chase Payroll, Powered by Gusto
NEW YORK, October 07, 2026--Small business owners increasingly want the tools they use to run their businesses to work together and be managed in one place. In recent Chase research, 89% of business owners said they would find it valuable to manage payroll within the same platform they use for business banking and payments, highlighting growing demand for a more connected business experience. Additionally, 37% said meeting payroll put pressure on cash flow over the last six months, underscoring
The same union supporting a billionaire tax wants voters to limit clinic spending. Here’s what to know about Prop. 44
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I-194 won’t stop the political ads
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Could Real Madrid’s Endrick return to Lyon?
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Pens Points: Crosby meets Ovechkin for first of final battles
Following Monday’s announcement that this would be Alex Ovechkin’s final NHL season, Pittsburgh Penguins and Washington Capitals fans likely peeked at the schedule to see how many more times the two generation-defining rivals would face off. Luckily for us, tonight is the first of four final regular season matchups between Ovechkin and Crosby. Puck drop […]
Communities worry for their health after Trump weakens pollution limits: 'It's a kick in the gut'
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Former Penguins Executive Says They Nearly Drafted Matthew Knies
As the Pittsburgh Penguins were preparing to be called to make the 58th overall selection in the 2021 NHL Draft, they were getting ready to call out a name that would quickly make an impact in the NHL: Matthew Knies. The only problem was, one pick before the Penguins were on the clock, the Toronto […] The post Former Penguins Executive Says They Nearly Drafted Matthew Knies appeared first on HEAVY.
Amendment 87 will devastate Main Street, communities
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Poll: Voters oppose redistricting ballot question when presented 'meat of the political outcome'
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More Rumours Suggest Kyrie Irving Being Traded to the Rockets
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Business groups to lawmakers: NJ is losing out to other states
The marathon hearing ended with questions about whether the Legislature would act on recommendations or allow longstanding problems to continue.
Celtics’ Jayson Tatum Makes Feelings on Mitchell Robinson Clear
Mitchell Robinson has been getting to know his new Boston Celtics teammates over the past few weeks.The veteran big man joined the Celtics earlier this summer, signing a three-year, $47.3 million deal. Robinson is well known for being a big personality, and it would appear that he’s already endearing himself to the rest of the […] The post Celtics’ Jayson Tatum Makes Feelings on Mitchell Robinson Clear appeared first on HEAVY.
Massie files bill to let small farmers process their own livestock
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Trump’s comment about Iran nuking Los Angeles and San Diego was incoherent, not malicious
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I’m Convinced That Pete Hegseth Doesn’t Actually Care About Our Armed Service Members
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Ben Affleck says he'd never run for political office
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Elizabethton High School Health Academy expands as student interest grows
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Trump Does Not Plan to Reimburse Taxpayers for Promotional Ads
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Halle Berry denies ex-husband’s claim that she abused their 13-year-old son: ‘I would never hurt our child’
Olivier Martinez accused his ex-wife of abuse last week, asking for sole custody of their son.
CD&R, McKesson acquiring infusion therapy provider Option Care Health for $5.8B
Option Care Health, a provider of infusion therapy services, is being acquired by private equity firm CD&R and healthcare conglomerate McKesson in a deal valued at $5.8 billion, the companies a | Option Care Health, the country's largest independent provider of at-home and alternate site infusion services, would go private in the deal, which is expected to close in the first half of 2027.
A Space Disaster Is Coming Unless We Take Kessler Syndrome Seriously
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‘The Love Witch’ at 10: How Anna Biller created a film that real witches would want to see
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Senate passes bipartisan Health Care Cybersecurity and Resilience Act
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The Harvard Crimson (@theharvardcrimson)
83 likes, 0 comments - theharvardcrimson on October 6, 2026: "Harvard’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences is launching 25 tenure-track faculty searches, FAS Dean Hopi E. Hoekstra announced in a Monday email to faculty, further loosening a University-wide hiring freeze instituted last spring as the school draws an influx of philanthropic support. The searches, which include positions across the FAS’ three divisions and the School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, come less than a week after Hoekstra announced the school would also be upping Ph.D. admissions for the upcoming admissions cycle — and as the University continues soliciting support from donors for its academic programming. Full story linked in bio. 🖋: Abigail S. Gerstein and Amann S. Mahajan 📷: Mae T. Weir".
Students Use Forensic Science Skills in Escape Room
Hundreds of students from across the region put their problem-solving skills to the test this week during the Regional Science Consortium’s annual Forensic Science Escape Room. Elementary school students had just a few hours to figure out how someone died as part of a forensic science escape room activity. The Regional Science Consortium partnered with Mercyhurst University for the 10th year of the event, which is taking place at the Tom Ridge Environmental Center. It began Monday and runs through Thursday.Throughout the week, more than 250 students are working to solve murder mysteries using real forensic science techniques. Students must analyze the evidence, piece together clues and solve the crime before time runs out.Organizers said the event gives students interested in pursuing forensic science in college a firsthand look at what a career in the field could entail.Sarah Skelton, Special Gifts Coordinator at Iroquois, said the activity provides students with an opportunity to develop skills that can sometimes be difficult to practice in a traditional classroom. "It really helps them to work in teams and on critical thinking skills. Which, not that they don't get these opportunities, but it's hard sometimes in the classroom to develop those higher-level thinking skills”, said Skelton.Students also get a chance to learn how forensic science is used in real-life investigations. As Skelton explained, "What are the real-life applications? What would you actually see in a crime scene? How would you handle these types of forensic investigations? So it's really cool our kids get to see what opportunities are out there and possibly a career field one day."The popular event has grown over the years, with some students returning year after year. Organizers said watching those students grow and develop their interests is one of the highlights of the program.Jeanette Schnars, the Executive Director of the Regional Science Consortium said it's rewarding to see how students' interests evolve as they get older. According to Schnars, "How they have grown and matured and where their interests are going and maybe they aren't going into forensics, but if they are going into sciences or different disciplines, so it's really fulfilling to see how they have matured."One student who continues to enjoy the event is sixth-grader Mia Harvey of Iroquois. Harvey hopes to pursue a career in medicine and says the forensic science activities are helping her explore her interests, "One day I want to become a neurologist, and learning about the bones is probably going to help me."Harvey said her favorite part of the event is the real-life application of what she's learning. "While you are trying to find the clues, they teach real stuff that you would need to know”, said Harvey.Event organizers said if students are learning while having fun, then the program is accomplishing its goal. "Not only are they learning the science, but they are having fun with it too”, said Schnars.Adults will also have a chance to take part in the experience this Saturday during an adult version of the escape room, which will feature food, drinks and entertainment. For more information, click here.The Forensic Science Escape Room has become one of the Regional Science Consortium’s most popular events, with teachers signing up their students as soon as registration opens in August.
Scientist who hunts mysterious ghost particles in the Antarctic ice wins Nobel Prize for physics
Francis Halzen said it was predicted that he would win the prize, but the announcement still made him feel “strange.” The 82-year-old scientist is affiliated with the University of Wisconsin–Madison in the U.S.
Brazil: Lessons from a Disaster
By Antonio Martins (Outras Palavras) Defeats become deeper and more prolonged when we misunderstand what caused them, avoid correcting course, and embrace “solutions” that only compound our mistakes. Lula’s government and the Brazilian left suffered a disaster in Sunday’s election. Contrary to every poll, the president finished the first round 2.2 million votes behind Flávio Bolsonaro—and, more significantly, 3.4 million votes below his total four years ago, when the machinery of the state was working against him and in favor of his opponent. His vote share declined in 98 percent of Brazil’s municipalities. The PL, the main party of the far right, elected 121 deputies and 28 senators, becoming the largest caucus in both houses of Congress. The parties aligned with the Centrão—Brazil’s bloc of transactional center-right parties—were somewhat diminished, but will still hold roughly 250 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate. That will make it easier to assemble the majorities needed to amend the Constitution or impeach Supreme Federal Court justices. If elected, Flávio Bolsonaro could appoint four members of the Court, substantially altering its internal balance of power. What produced these results? How can the far right be prevented from consolidating them into a prolonged political hegemony? And what is the essential change of direction the left now needs? Explaining the Disaster Across the commercial media and the exuberant chaos of digital platforms, interpretations are multiplying. Some focus on specific episodes: Lula’s absence from the Globo debate, his very close relationship with Alexandre de Moraes, or his emphasis on issues supposedly remote from most people’s everyday concerns, such as rare earth minerals. Among the more systemic interpretations, three seem especially questionable. One argues that the principal defeat was not the left’s, since its congressional representation declined only slightly. The decisive movement captured at the ballot box, according to this view, was a shift within the right itself—from the more moderate and transactional forces of the Centrão toward the more ideological and radicalized forces of the PL and Novo. A second interpretation holds that the nature of electoral and political processes has changed. The material interests and aspirations of society, it argues, no longer play the central role they once did; they have given way to forms of subjective self-identification that the left has yet to understand. And a third concludes that, because of these two developments, we should expect a political winter: a prolonged period in which the far right and the broader right dominate Brazilian political life. There are important elements in all three interpretations. The problem lies in what they deny or leave out: Lula’s third government was a small-bore government. It offered the majorities that elected it neither a clearly better life nor reasons to believe again in politics and its power to transform society. These failures flowed from two fatal accommodations, which I will examine below. As a result, the government suffered a slow but steady erosion of support. And, as has happened in so many Western countries, it gave the far right the opportunity to present itself as anti-system and to benefit from popular frustration and distress. The interpretation that emphasizes the migration of votes from the center-right and traditional right toward the far right has been advanced, among others, by the courageous journalist Leonardo Sakamoto. In his UOL column on Monday, October 5, he highlights the miserable behavior of the traditional conservative parties. Over the past four years, they repeatedly joined forces with the “neo”-fascists, helping to “normalize” them—a criticism that could equally be directed at almost the entire corporate media. Believing they could use the far right as a stepping stone, they instead ended up partly devoured by it. This was especially true in the Senate, where the PL’s gain of 13 senators and Novo’s gain of two came at the expense of the PSD, which lost nine; the MDB, which lost two; the PSDB, which lost two; and the PP, which lost one. Sakamoto’s observation is accurate and necessary, but it leaves uncomfortable questions unanswered. Why did the erosion of the Centrão benefit the far right rather than, for example, producing growth for the left—as has happened so many times before, both in Brazil and elsewhere? The answer is not difficult. Throughout its four years in office, Lula’s third government was almost invariably associated with the Centrão. Here lies its first accommodation: accepting the limits imposed by conservative institutions; avoiding, as much as possible, any attempt to strain those limits through popular pressure; and believing only in the modest changes that could be squeezed through openings in Congress. The failure of the campaign to end the six-day workweek is emblematic. Lula could have electrified the presidential race by pairing it with a popular campaign for passage of the measure. Instead, he chose to place his hopes in the hands of Senate president Rodrigo Alcolumbre. He generated no mass mobilization, did not force his opponents onto an uncomfortable defensive, and won no victory. In September 2025, the government squandered the greatest of its many opportunities to shake up conservative power in Congress. Popular opposition to the so-called Shielding Amendment—which, if approved, would have restricted criminal proceedings against members of Congress—brought crowds into the streets, mobilized primarily by artists and social movements. This opened the possibility for a broader political education: a campaign that could begin exposing the limits and dysfunctions of Brazil’s political system while putting Bolsonaro’s movement on the defensive for its predictable support of political privilege. The amendment was defeated. But the executive branch then backed away from the fight. It remained associated with an institutional world widely seen as corrupt, elitist, and indifferent to ordinary people’s struggles. In doing so, it forfeited its credibility as a vehicle for the protest vote. On Sunday, it reaped the bitter fruits. Are We Doomed? Taking a different approach from Sakamoto, the philosopher Moysés Pinto Neto and other writers have drawn attention, in their first analyses of October 4, to the fragmentation of the public sphere produced by Big Tech platforms. Through their algorithms, these platforms present each person with a different view of social reality. As a consequence, it becomes much harder to identify common material problems and demands—for example, the fight for labor rights or for a properly funded public health system. Voters no longer embrace such demands, these authors argue, because they no longer see themselves as part of a collective. Instead, they tend to value the identities assigned to them by neoliberal subjectivity—the role of the entrepreneur, for example. On this interpretation, the left’s possible error lies in clinging to outdated illusions. Moysés’s warning is highly relevant and resonates with arguments such as Naomi Klein and Astra Taylor’s “Apocalyptic Fascism and the Billionaires’ Bet.” Unlike a century ago, the far right no longer promises a radiant future. It concentrates instead on resentment—especially that of young men. “They belong to a generation that fears it may never own a home, but compensates with the pleasure it gets from constantly provoking progressives online. Convinced their future has been stolen, they share memes romanticizing historical authoritarian regimes,” the authors write. But Moysés seems to confuse this danger with inevitability. He fails to see that the left’s answer cannot be adaptation. On the contrary, it must strengthen the possibility of politics as collective action. Nor does he recognize that precisely such a reversal is already becoming possible in some of the most promising mobilizations of the twenty-first century: the election, at the end of 2025, of the young Muslim Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York, on a platform centered on the intensely material fight for an affordable city; the Left Party’s victory in Berlin two weeks ago, built around the demand to expropriate private real-estate corporations; and the very recent wave of demonstrations in Spain—including an occupation of Madrid’s Puerta del Sol—in which tens of thousands of young people mobilized by the Tenants’ Union have demanded limits on rents. By putting itself in the straitjacket of the “fiscal framework” in the first months of 2022, Lula’s third government adopted the second fatal accommodation of its term. Faced with conservative institutions and a country devastated by four years of Bolsonaro, increased public investment was the government’s remaining weapon for offering a more dignified life to the majority and forging an anti-conservative pact with them. The same state that disburses 1 trillion reais a year to enrich a small class of rentiers could instead spend money to extend the Family Health Strategy to every Brazilian, at a cost of 30 billion reais; provide full-day public schooling and childcare to all adolescents and children—and, especially, relief to their mothers; achieve universal sanitation while cleaning up polluted urban rivers; multiply metro systems; begin transforming the urban peripheries; and undertake many other urgently needed projects. In April 2023, an article in Outras Palavras warned that the fiscal framework could “shrink the Lula government and preserve the forces that condemn the country to inequality and regression.” A year later, another article showed that restraints on public spending were strangling policies vital to ordinary people and undermining the president’s popularity. In November 2024 came a reality check, in the form of the government’s humiliating defeat in the municipal elections. Even then, the fiscal lock was neither removed nor loosened. On the contrary: throughout the government’s four years, fiscal restraint remained central to its political narrative. The administration proudly proclaimed that it had “put the state’s accounts in order,” without grasping either how misleading that phrase was—given the payment of 1 trillion reais in interest—or how badly the message was hurting it politically. Lula finally woke up in September 2026. The increase in Bolsa Família benefits, after four years of being frozen; the announcement that anti-obesity drugs would be offered through Brazil’s public health system; and the ban on online betting showed that the state has the power to act decisively on behalf of the majority when those in government are willing to confront obstacles. The huge marches that closed the campaign in Fortaleza, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo on the eve of October 4 showed how such initiatives can mobilize activists and the broader public. But it was too late—and too little to change the outcome of the first round. History has not ended The possibility of a turnaround in the three weeks leading up to November 25 cannot be ruled out. It will not be simple or easy. Lula must not only make up a deficit of 2.2 million votes; he must also offset the movement of voters who backed other right-wing candidates in the first round, most of whom are likely to move toward Flávio Bolsonaro. Pulling that off will require a broad, grassroots effort to win over voters, potentially reinforced by new initiatives from Lula. The coming hours and days will be decisive. If Bolsonaro’s movement also wins the presidency, the result will create a high-risk situation for Brazilian sovereignty and democracy. The enormous challenges posed by such an outcome would require the left to reexamine, in depth and with a genuine willingness to engage in self-criticism, its political projects—or its lack of them—and its practices. But would that mean we are condemned to the long winter of far-right hegemony that some analyses are beginning to forecast? It is far too early to say, suggests a recent text by Álvaro García Linera, the thinker who served as vice president of Bolivia under Evo Morales. His central hypothesis is that this political current will prove short-lived. At a moment when the entire world is once again talking about sovereignty and protecting national economies, the far right offers a stale, recolonizing neoliberalism. Its submission to the United States is as blatant and pathetic as Flávio and Eduardo Bolsonaro’s overtures to Donald Trump. Its project amounts to something like every man for himself: greater inequality, capitalism without limits, devastation, and supremacism. Will it work? In the United States, just two years into his second term, Trump himself is reaching record levels of unpopularity and may be on the verge of losing Republican control of both the House and Senate in November. Every new beginning is difficult. Whatever the outcome of the second round, the defeats of October 4 show how profoundly the Brazilian left will have to rethink and rebuild. But just as it would be foolish to underestimate the seriousness of its mistakes, it would be equally foolish to conclude that rebuilding a political project is no longer possible. History has not ended. The times are moving faster than ever. Originally published in Portuguese by Outras Palavras. English translation by Eric Blanc; I’ve added the subtitles. More We can’t stop the far right at home or abroad without a revitalized labor movement, which is yet another reason why you should become a sustaining supporter of the Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee (EWOC) — one of US labor’s pivotal bright spots. Relatedly, Jacobin published a short piece of mine reflecting on a decade of Bernie Sanders inspiring a whole new generation of young worker organizers.
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