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School workers pass first goal post towards health insurance reform in final day of legislative session
On the last day of the Minnesota legislature’s 2026 session, lawmakers voted to fund a data collection project to study the spiraling health insurance costs for Minnesota school districts – a first step in reforming the health insurance program for school district employees as a whole.
Rep. Gluesenkamp Perez explains decision to back policy dubbed ‘Don’t Say Trans’ bill
“I voted for this bill because I believe the answer is to bring families in,” the congresswoman said, in part.
This week in politics: How Schuylkill County’s legislators voted
The PA House and Senate were both out of session this week, and will return to Harrisburg on June 1. The U.S. Senate and House were both in session this week. The Senate passed seven bills and the House passed 18. Let’s take a look at how S…
Fresno is one vote away from allowing alcohol consumption in ‘Entertainment Zones’
FRESNO, Calif. (KSEE/KGPE) – Change is brewing in Downtown Fresno. Fresno City Councilmembers voted Thursday to pass the first phase of an ordinance to allow people to drink alcoho…
Fernandes wins EA SPORTS Player of the Season award
Man Utd captain wins award for first time after being voted standout player of Premier League campaign
Democrats revolt over 'biological' wording in women's history museum bill
Democratic lawmakers voted against a women's history museum bill Republicans amended to focus on biological women, not trans people.
World Health Assembly Condemns Iranian Strikes On Gulf States, Health Fallout Of Hormuz Closure
The World Health Assembly (WHA) voted 91-2 to adopt a resolution condemning Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure across Gulf countries amid its war with
Bonus 228: The $1.776B Political Question
Every so often a story comes along that is so brazen, so cleanly emblematic of the moment we are living through, that staying quiet about it feels like a kind of complicity unto itself. Monday’s announcement by the Department of Justice that the Acting Attorney General has unilaterally created a $1.776 billion “Anti-Weaponization Fund” to compensate so-called “victims of lawfare” is one of those stories. And the reason I want to write about it here, in a newsletter ostensibly devoted to the Supreme Court and the law and politics surrounding it, is that I’m increasingly worried that we’re asking the wrong institution to save us from one of the most offensive, alarming, and anti-constitutional things we’ve seen from any president in American history. As I explain below the fold, the Anti-Weaponization Fund is not principally a legal problem awaiting a judicial fix. It is a shockingly egregious political abuse—the President suing his own government, purporting to settle with himself, and routing nearly $2 billion from the Treasury to his own supporters as a not-so-subtle (and not-so-formal) reward, if not an incentive, for political violence. And the Constitution’s answer to political abuses of this kind and magnitude is a political remedy, not a legal one. In his majority opinion in NFIB v. Sebelius (the Affordable Care Act case from 2012), Chief Justice Roberts defended the Court’s endorsement of Congress’s power to adopt the individual mandate by noting that it is “not our job to protect the people from the consequences of their political choices.” As much of a judicial supremacist as I am, that sentiment is, for better or worse, an entirely correct (and, in the long term, normatively desirable) institutional assessment. One can believe in substantial judicial power without believing that literally every political dispute in our country can and should be resolved by unelected judges. The real upshot of this latest headline (among so, so many other similar headlines) is that it is past time to reinvigorate impeachment—not because conviction is realistic in this Senate, or even because impeachment itself is feasible in this House, but because forcing every member of Congress to vote on the record whether this brazen, corrosive, and affirmatively dangerous corruption is impeachable is itself a point worth fighting for (and fighting with our friends over). Assuming the courts will save us absolves our political leaders of both responsibility and accountability for allowing this kind of mischief to continue, and it absolves all of us of our responsibility to refuse to tolerate those who would just as quickly shrug their shoulders and move on. For those who aren’t paid subscribers, we’ll be back (no later than) Monday with our continuing coverage of the Supreme Court. For those who are, please read on.
Planning Commission approves Orange Apartments, Entertainment Zones
The Vacaville Planning Commission voted unanimously Tuesday evening to approve the Orange Apartments and Retail Development Project. Senior Planner Albert Enault provided the presentation. He said the project would subdivide the site in the…
After Eurovision Final, Dismay That Politics Didn’t Play a Bigger Role
Politics isn’t supposed to influence the international song contest, but more than one official commented on how countries voted this year.
NC House overrides governor’s private school voucher veto
The North Carolina House voted May 20, 2026, to override a veto from Democratic Gov. Josh Stein that allows private school tuition donors to opt in to a federal tax break.
Two weeks after 'PBA' voted through, IHSAA commissioner addresses new bylaw in letter
IHSAA commissioner Paul Neidig addresses new PBA bylaw in letter. Other notes include basketball coaching hire, recruiting updates.
Senate advances resolution to end Iran war as GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy flips to support it
The Louisiana senator, who lost his primary over the weekend, voted in support of the war powers resolution for the first time. It advanced 50-47, with a final passage vote yet to come.
First Ballot: Kevin Harvick Voted Into NASCAR Hall of Fame
Former Cup champion and current FOX Sports analyst Kevin Harvick will be among the three inductees of the 2027 NASCAR Hall of Fame class.
Flag football moves toward NCAA title status before '28 Olympics
The NCAA Committee on Access, Opportunity and Impact voted Tuesday to recommend that Divisions I, II and III add a national collegiate flag football championship as soon as the spring of 2028.
Service & Solidarity Spotlight: Michigan Science Center Workers Vote to Join the UAW
Workers at the Michigan Science Center (Mi-Sci) voted overwhelmingly in favor of joining the UAW.
These men voted for President Trump. They have very different views of how he's doing
Two Black men from Georgia who voted for President Trump in 2024 have very different views of how the country is doing now, in the first installment of Swing Shift from NPR's Tamara Keith.
The 52nd annual American Music Awards show boasts an all-star lineup in Las Vegas
The fan-voted show will be held at MGM Grand Garden Arena on May 25.
Despite retribution, Cassidy attempted to make amends with Trump after impeachment vote
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — When Charles Wandfluh voted in Louisiana's Republican primary over the weekend, he could only conjure the unflattering image of a panicked rodent when talking about Bill Cassidy's desperate attemp t to cling to his U.S. Senate seat despite opposition from President Donald Trump. “He’s just a squirrel running around the tree, chasing nuts to find whatever he can get to benefit him,” said Wandfluh, 57, in a suburb of New Orleans.
Trump gets back at Louisiana senator who voted to convict him
Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy placed last in a three-way race.
Republican Senator Cassidy loses Louisiana primary after opposing Trump
Bill Cassidy is among seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump after the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack.
Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy loses in Republican primary, does not advance to runoff
Sen. Bill Cassidy is one of few remaining Republican senators who voted for President Trump's impeachment after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Trump endorsed his opponent, Rep. Julia Letlow.
Trump disparages incumbent Sen. Cassidy and tries to propel his challenger in Louisiana GOP primary
Trump endorsed U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow over Cassidy, in an unusual attempt to dislodge an incumbent senator. Cassidy voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial.
Trump’s drive for political revenge faces a key test in Saturday’s Louisiana Senate primary
President Donald Trump’s drive for political revenge faces a key test Saturday in Louisiana, where he is looking to defeat Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy five years after Cassidy voted to convict him in his second impeachment.
This Republican voted to convict Trump. Now he's up for reelection. Can he survive?
Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy was one of seven Republican senators who voted to impeach President Trump. Now he's running for reelection in a race that will test Trump's hold on the GOP.
Vague Comments Add to Puzzle Over Tom Kean Jr.’s Absence
Representative Tom Kean Jr. hasn’t voted on Capitol Hill since March as he deals with an unspecified medical issue.
Senators agree to go without pay during shutdowns after historic closures left workers unpaid
Senators unanimously voted to withhold their own pay during future government shutdowns after federal workers went unpaid in two historic closures.
Childcare business tax credit program goes to governor
As the midnight deadline approaches for all remaining bills to be acted on, the New Hampshire Senate voted “ought to pass” on a bill endorsed by Gov. Kelly Ayotte that would create a tax credit for businesses that create more childcare slots.
John Fetterman casts deciding vote against limiting Trump's war in Iran
The Pennsylvania Democrat has voted repeatedly to support the war. With a few Republicans deflecting, it was now the first time his vote was decisive.
South Carolina state Senate rejects effort to tackle redistricting despite pressure from Trump
Five Republican lawmakers defected and voted against a plan to extend their legislative session in order to carve up the state’s lone Democratic U.S. House district.
GOP dissenters purged in Indiana primaries
Trump encouraged the ouster of Republicans who voted down a new congressional map
Detroit’s Michigan Science Center Workers win union victory under UAW
DETROIT, Mich.—Museum cultural workers achieved a victory on May 8 as Guest Relations and Education workers at Detroit’s own Michigan Science Center voted overwhelmingly to unionize under the UAW.
Ambani's Jio Platforms IPO pivots to pure fundraising, no investor exits, sources say
Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Jio Platforms has pivoted to a pure fundraising for its planned Mumbai listing, selling a 2.5% stake in the offering and dropping earlier plans that would have allowed some shareholders to exit, two sources said.
John Cena Classic Complete Breakdown And Predictions
John Cena announced the John Cena Classic at Backlash 2026 — a fan-voted recurring PLE pitting NXT vs. main roster for a new championship. Full breakdown and predictions.
Oneida County State of the County address touches on housing efforts
He said a PILOT agreement will be voted on next week which would include a new tax exemption policy increasing the types of housing that can be incentivized.
Ayotte wades into wraparound mental health services debate
After a New Hampshire House committee voted to kick the can down the road on whether to compel insurance companies to cover wraparound mental health services for children, Gov. Kelly Ayotte was “outraged.”
Montclair, N.J., families raising money to save freshmen sports programs after budget cuts
The Montclair School District Board of Education voted Wednesday to eliminate freshmen sports programs due to budget cuts.
NCAA Tournament officially expands to 76 teams
The Division I Board of Governors voted on Thursday to officially expand the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments to 76 teams, eight more than the current 68-team field.
Dell votes to make Texas its legal home in reincorporation move
Dell Technologies Inc.'s entire board voted in favor of reincorporating in Texas.
SC House Republicans vote to consider congressional redistricting after Trump White House pressure
SC House Republicans voted to allow themselves the option to redraw Congressional lines in 2026 after a pressure campaign by Donald Trump’s White House. The plan still needs approval from
American College of Radiology Council approves ‘groundbreaking’ framework for assessing AI
Leaders voted to OK the new Practice Parameter for Imaging Artificial Intelligence during ACR’s annual meeting, being held in Washington, D.C.
Trump largely succeeds in upending Indiana state Senate over redistricting
President Trump had backed challengers to Indiana state senators who voted against his redistricting plan — and on Tuesday, most of them won.
India loses its last left-wing government after five decades
Kerala in India, which gave the world its first democratically elected communist government, has voted the left out.
Gen Z Cares about Politics, We Just Don’t Believe Politics Cares about Us
As part of a collaboration between The Fulcrum's NextGen initiative and Made By Us, The Fulcrum is publishing Letters to America, a series created through the Youth250 project that invites Gen Z to reflect on the nation’s past, present, and future as the United States approaches its 250th anniversar...
Despite Its Claims, the Trump Administration Isn’t Helping Farmers at All
A group of Iowa soybean farmers who voted for the president are undergoing a very rude awakening.
Charleston Sweeps 2026 CAA Women’s Golf Awards
RICHMOND, Va. – Charleston swept the 2026 CAA Women’s Golf awards as Molly Hardwick (Player of the Year), Carys Fennessy (Rookie of the Year) and Jamie Futrell (Coach of the Year) earned recognition as voted on by the league’s coaches.
Senate Bans Prediction Markets for Its Members and Staff
Senators voted unanimously to prohibit betting practices in the chamber after some users made hundreds of thousands of dollars online by accurately predicting U.S. military actions.
House approves bill to fund Homeland Security and end the record shutdown
After weeks of delay, the House voted Thursday to fund much of the Department of Homeland Security, but not its immigration enforcement operations, and sent the bipartisan package to President Donald Trump to sign, ending the longest agency shutdown in history.
A New Jersey Republican hasn’t voted in weeks, sparking questions over lengthy absence on Capitol Hill
Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey has not voted in Congress in weeks, sparking questions over when he will return to Capitol Hill as he faces a competitive race for reelection back home and Speaker Mike Johnson oversees an extremely narrow House majority in Washington.
Silver Dollar City named Best Theme Park for 4th year in a row
USA TODAY readers have voted Silver Dollar City as the nation's best theme park once again. Its Time Traveler roller coaster also moved up the list.
Kevin Warsh moves one step closer to becoming next Fed chair
Kevin Warsh moves closer to replacing Jerome Powell as Fed chair after the Senate Banking Committee voted to advance his nomination to the full Senate.
Here are the 2025-26 Athletes of the Season for girls' winter sports
See which Section 4 athletes, in girls' basketball, wrestling, track, and bowling, were voted as having made the most impact during the winter season.
‘Open for business, but there are extensive guardrails’: Birmingham weighs data center rules
The city council voted to push their vote on the regulations to the first week of June.
Colorado legislators eye new state requirements for ICE facilities
Colorado state representatives voted along party lines to pass a bill establishing additional inspection requirements for immigration detention centers and expanding civil liabilities related to sharing information with federal immigration authorities. It’s the latest proposal to come out of the state Capitol ,which has embraced so-called “sanctuary laws,” which limit or prohibit cooperation with federal […]
Colorado Democrats eye new state requirements for ICE facilities
Colorado state representatives voted along party lines to pass a bill establishing additional inspection requirements for immigration detention centers and expanding civil liabilities related to sharing information with federal immigration authorities. It’s the latest proposal to come out of the state Capitol ,which has embraced so-called “sanctuary laws,” which limit or prohibit cooperation with federal […]
How a Spanish startup pivoted to video AI and built a $230 million ARR business with no VC funding
Freepik is rebranding itself as Magnific, as cofounder and CEO Joaquín Cuenca Abela rebuilds the company for an AI future.
Business owners concerned about proposed pause in S.C. liquor liability law
South Carolina lawmakers voted last week to pause the state’s liquor liability law that took effect last year.
CDC delay of infant hepatitis B shot likely to raise infections, studies show
Federal vaccine advisers to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. voted in December to recommend delaying the first shot until at least two months of age for infants born to mothers who test negative for the virus.
This week in politics: How Schuylkill County’s legislators voted
The PA Senate was back in session this week and passed six bills. The U.S. Congress was also in session — the House of Representatives passed 14 bills and the U.S. Senate passed two. Let’s take a look at how Schuylkill County’s legislators …
4 workers explain how they added AI to their job titles
Two Microsoft workers pivoted into AI roles from non-technical fields and said their humanities backgrounds were helpful.
Screenwriters overwhelmingly approve a 4-year contract with Hollywood studios
Members of the screenwriters union have ratified a four-year agreement with Hollywood studios. Union leaders said Friday that 90% voted to approve the deal. This move ends a surprisingly smooth
Republican congressman absent over ‘personal health matter’, Johnson says
Tom Kean, who has not voted since 5 March and whose seat is top Democratic target, due back ‘very soon’, speaker says
Republicans fail to attach SAVE America Act to party-line funding package
Senate Republicans Tom Tillis, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Mitch McConnell voted against a voter ID amendment to the GOP immigration enforcement funding bill.
Christian Hubicki reacts to having to vote himself out of 'Survivor 50'
'Survivor 50' star Christian Hubicki reacts to having to vote himself out of the game, and reveals whom he would have voted for at the Journey had he solved the puzzle.
WBD shareholders approve Paramount deal, reject David Zaslav's pay
Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders voted to approve the Paramount Skydance deal but against the pay package for CEO David Zaslav.
Two Republicans break with party as GOP defeats budget amendment to lower health care costs
Senate Republicans on Wednesday voted against an amendment sponsored by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) to create a point of order against any future budget reconciliation bill that d…
Is tit-for-tat political gerrymandering the future of US politics?
Virginia voters delivered a major win to Democrats on Tuesday.A narrow majority voted to allow lawmakers to bypass the state's bipartisan redistricting commission. That means the Democratic-led legislature will create a map that’s more favorable to them in the midterms.It's the latest chapter in a redistricting saga that President Trump started last year, but is the tit-for-tat redistricting battle the future of US electoral politics?We speak with Democratic Virginia governor Abigail Spanberger to hear her perspective.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at considerthis@npr.org.This episode was produced by Tyler Bartlam and Matt Ozug. It was edited by Tinbete Ermyas. Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.
Iowa Senate blocks confirmation of Larry Johnson as director of Health and Human Services
Iowa Senate Democrats voted against confirming Gov. Kim Reynolds' pick to lead the Iowa Department of Health and Human Services, citing transparency concerns.
Riverhead sets hearing on condemning science center building
A split Riverhead Town Board voted Tuesday to set a May 20 public hearing on the proposed condemnation of the Long Island Science Center’s long-vacant building.
SDOL school board appoints new Interim Business Administrator
Board members of the School District of Lancaster unanimously voted to appoint Charles Linderman as the district's Interim Business Administrator.
Virginia votes yes on proposed congressional redistricting, AP projects
Virginia voted to approve a plan to temporarily redraw the Commonwealth's 11 congressional districts ahead of November's midterm elections, the Associated Press projects.
Proposed ban on sports prop bets dies amid state budget woes
State lawmakers voted Tuesday morning to remove a proposed ban on prop bets from Senate Bill 131, a larger sports gambling reform measure.
Republicans launch a new effort to fund the Department of Homeland Security
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate voted on Tuesday to launch a new effort to reopen the Department of Homeland Security and end the longest partial government shutdown in history. The 52-46 vote was the first step in a budget process that Republicans hope will unlock the funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol. […]
Limits to health insurance program for immigrants approved by Colorado lawmakers
Colorado lawmakers voted to limit a health insurance program for immigrants without legal status as part of the budget process this year.
‘Brought people to the table:’ Orlando business program promoting minorities, women officially replaced
Orlando city commissioners voted Monday to replace its Minority and Women Business program, nearly a year after it suspended the program.
Curing U.S. Health Care, Part I
In 2008, much to their own surprise, leading Democrats unified around a program of major health care reform. Policy wonks had spent years developing the concepts behind what eventually became Obamacare; big Democratic victories in the 2006 midterms and the prospect of controlling both Congress and the presidency made it possible to imagine turning those ideas into reality. During the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama advocated similar plans, based on those ideas, for expanding insurance coverage. And it happened! The Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010. When it was fully implemented in 2014, millions of Americans got health insurance: Impressive as the raw numbers are, they don’t tell the whole story. Before the ACA, even upper-middle-class Americans often found it impossible to get health insurance if they had pre-existing medical conditions. Many Americans were trapped in jobs they wanted to leave but couldn’t for fear of losing their employment-based coverage. Meanwhile, dire predictions from the usual suspects about runaway costs proved wrong. In fact, overall U.S. medical spending has grown much more slowly since the ACA was enacted than before. But the U.S., alone among advanced nations, still falls far short of providing universal health care. As you can see from the chart above, 8 percent of the population was still uninsured in 2024, a number that is set to rise over the next two years as a result of Republican policies. True, many of the uninsured in 2024 were undocumented immigrants, who we don’t try to cover. But there are still a lot of uninsured. Moreover, a significant number of Americans who have health insurance are in fact underinsured. As a result, they are at risk of incurring devastating healthcare costs and are sometimes forced to forgo needed care. This number is set to rise sharply in the next two years as a result of Republican policies adopted under Donald Trump. And not only is the U.S. unique among advanced countries in its under-provision of health care coverage, it also incurs by far the world’s highest healthcare costs per capita. So now may well be a good time to get behind a new push for major health reform — an effort, if you like, to finish the job begun under Obama. Today’s primer is devoted to the economics of health reform. During his failed effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act, Donald Trump famously complained, “Nobody knew healthcare could be so complicated.” Actually, we did know — and it’s not that complicated. Health economists understand the principles very well. And because health policy varies greatly among advanced nations, we know a lot about what works and what doesn’t. This will be the first in a series about health reform. Beyond the paywall I’ll address the following: 1. Why markets can’t be trusted to deliver healthcare 2. Routes to universal healthcare 3. What works? In a follow-up post I’ll discuss the pros and cons of different approaches, and possible paths forward for the United States.
This week in politics: How Schuylkill County’s legislators voted
Between ongoing budget stalemates and severe partisan divides, it can be easy to feel like nothing is getting done in government. But every week is a busy week in politics, and important developments are happening at both the state and…
Introducing Fighting Fascism, A New Podcast Devoted to Resisting Authoritarianism
In a moment that demands not just outrage but strategy, cohosts Aaron Regunberg, Jonathan Smucker, and Matt DaSilva, are here with concrete lessons to help listeners fight back against fascism.
How Dylan Patel and SemiAnalysis Grabbed Sway in Silicon Valley
For Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, an influential AI industry newsletter and research firm, Nvidia deserves the kind of dogged observation and study the tabloid press once devoted to Princess Diana. Hescrutinizesthe chip giant’s new products,documentsits delays andscoopsdetails about its ...
Colorado’s $46.8 billion budget nears finish line
The Colorado Senate on Thursday voted largely along party lines to approve $46.8 billion in spending for the next state budget. The spending plan is bigger than what legislators originally approved for the current fiscal year’s budget, driven by increases in Medicaid costs. The proposal saw changes from a dozen amendments during debate Wednesday, but […]
City council approves land purchase for a new North Downtown pro soccer stadium and entertainment district
The city council voted 7-0 to purchase land for a new 11-acre professional soccer stadium and entertainment district in North Downtown
Colorado House finishes work on 2026-27 state budget, finally
The House on Saturday, after four days of work – it usually takes two – finished up their work and voted on the $46.8 billion 2026-27 state budget, as contained in House Bill 1410 and 64 accompanying measures designed to help balance the budget. The delay in getting to the finish line was caused by […]
Iraq elects Kurdish politician Nizar Amidi as president amid Iran war fallout
Iraq's parliament voted Saturday to elect Nizar Amidi as president, five months after a parliamentary election that didn't produce a decisive majority.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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