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Nuggets Receive New LeBron James Reality Check From Rival Insider

A rival NBA insider delivered a sobering update on the Nuggets' pursuit of LeBron James as Denver continues to chase the four-time MVP. The post Nuggets Receive New LeBron James Reality Check From Rival Insider appeared first on HEAVY.

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Jul 13 • 8:22 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Vistria sells stake in specialty pharmacy company to Warburg Pincus

Revenue at the Pittsburgh, Penn.-based Pantherx Rare had grown to nearly $10 billion from $2 billion since Vistria's investment.

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Jul 13 • 5:19 PM EDT • Business • chicagobusiness.com
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Central Maine Healthcare employees report safety concerns amid turnover

Hospitals reportedly experiencing staffing issues include Central Maine Medical Center in Lewiston.

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Jul 13 • 8:07 AM EDT • Health • wgme.com
Footballers eye up gold at Special Olympics

Players with intellectual disabilities will compete in the games at Alexander Stadium in Birmingham.

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Jul 13 • 2:47 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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AMD FSR Multi-Frame Generation With Up to 8x Mode in Development

AMD has reportedly been testing a new and highly anticipated FSR multi-frame generation (MFG) technology for its Radeon RX GPUs. This information comes from a third-party software called RadeonTuner, which allows access to Radeon driver settings without using the AMD Software: Adrenalin Edition...

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Jul 13 • 2:00 AM EDT • Technology • techpowerup.com
Trump Loses Lindsey Graham

The South Carolina senator’s sudden death leaves a void that the White House can’t afford.

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Jul 12 • 2:24 PM EDT • Politics • theatlantic.com
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FlexWork Sports fumbled Tetairoa McMillan youth football camp
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Jul 12 • 8:25 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Here are the races to watch as Democrats grow more bullish on retaking the Senate

The map still favors Republicans, but political headwinds are shifting to boost Democratic chances of flipping seats — despite the scandal in Maine.

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Jul 11 • 5:00 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Scottie Barnes Sends ‘Very Dangerous’ Declaration About Kawhi Leonard’s Raptors

The Toronto Raptors are seen to be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference next season after they got Kawhi Leonard via an agreed-upon trade with the Los Angeles Clippers. During an NBA Summer League game, Scottie Barnes had an interesting declaration about the new-look Raptors squad with Leonard. Barnes said that the […] The post Scottie Barnes Sends ‘Very Dangerous’ Declaration About Kawhi Leonard’s Raptors appeared first on HEAVY.

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Jul 11 • 2:56 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Iván Herrera to Replace Shohei Ohtani in All-Star Game

Ivan Herrera will replace Shohei Ohtani on the NL All-Star roster.

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Jul 10 • 7:34 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Cardinals, rookie 2B JJ Wetherholt reportedly agree on 8-year, $112.5 million extension

The 23-year-old infielder has shown the makings of a star during his first season in St. Louis.

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Jul 10 • 4:21 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
HOTWORX Franchise Expands to Alaska, Starting in Wasilla

Former Alaskans return with a new fitness trend: hot yoga, hot pilates, and hot cycle sessions held in saunas to keep muscles limber and lithe.

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Jul 10 • 1:08 PM EDT • Business • akbizmag.com
Victor Marx Wins Colorado Gubernatorial Primary

Republican Victor Marx, who claims his father made him kill someone at age seven, enters the race as an underdog.

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Jul 10 • 12:15 PM EDT • Politics • nymag.com
How ‘skill games’ exploded across Pennsylvania — and sparked a multimillion-dollar political fight

Parx Casino and Pace-O-Matic spent millions battling over Pa. gambling policy. Lawmakers now must decide who wins.

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Jul 10 • 5:01 AM EDT • Politics • inquirer.com
NFL Analyst Sprinkles Some Doubt On Eagles Rookie’s Initial Role

When it comes to rookie season expectations, Makai Lemon won’t have it easy with the Philadelphia Eagles. For starters, he’s in a tough market. Philadelphia demands hard work and instant results. But the resolved AJ Brown saga will be looming over the Eagles as well. That pressure will certainly go from local to national, as […] The post NFL Analyst Sprinkles Some Doubt On Eagles Rookie’s Initial Role appeared first on HEAVY.

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Jul 10 • 1:18 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Political newcomer Victor Marx projected to win Republican primary for Colorado governor
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Jul 9 • 9:49 PM EDT • Politics • cbsnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
Political newcomer Victor Marx projected to win Republican primary for Colorado governor
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Jul 9 • 6:17 PM EDT • Politics • cbsnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
Just Don’t Use the Super-Long Zoom on Sony’s RX10 V for Anything Creepy, Okay?

Your iPhone can't compare to this camera's built-in zoom.

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Jul 9 • 4:05 PM EDT • Technology • gizmodo.com
Sony RX10 V Announced – 24-600mm ZEISS Zoom, AI Recognition AF, and 4K 120p Video

Sony RX10 V announced: 24-600mm ZEISS zoom, AI Recognition AF, and 4K 120p video.

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Jul 9 • 3:41 PM EDT • Technology • cined.com
Victor Marx defeats Barb Kirkmeyer as Colorado’s Republican gubernatorial primary crosses finish line

Republican Victor Marx won Colorado’s Republican gubernatorial nomination on Thursday after maintaining a razor-thin lead over state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer for more than a week as county clerks finished reporting final, unofficial vote totals. Marx, a missionary leader and first-time candidate, will face Democratic nominee Attorney General Phil Weiser in November for the office held […]

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Jul 9 • 12:40 PM EDT • Politics • coloradopolitics.com
Victor Marx wins GOP nod for governor, will face Democrat Phil Weiser in November

The GOP primary remained too close to call for over a week, but Marx emerged victorious by about 2,500 votes.

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Jul 9 • 12:37 PM EDT • Politics • cpr.org
Sony's RX10 V Superzoom Finally Arrives With A New Design And 4K 120p Video

Sony has finally unveiled the RX10 V superzoom with a 24-600mm zoom lens and 20.1-megapixel 1-inch sensor.

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Jul 9 • 10:05 AM EDT • Technology • engadget.com
Sony brings back the superzoom RX10 with a stacked sensor and a high price

New sensor and autofocus. Same old lens.

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Jul 9 • 10:00 AM EDT • Technology • theverge.com
World Cup 2026: Norway changes hotel due to excessive noise just days ahead of England game
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Jul 9 • 8:35 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
A democratic socialist in Wisconsin tests how far left voters want to go in a battleground state

Democratic socialists have recently won elections in New York City, Washington, D.C., and Denver

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Jul 9 • 6:36 AM EDT • Politics • washingtonpost.com
Former Rutgers Defensive End Jamil Merrell Passes Away at 36

Former Rutgers football captain who played under Schiano/Flood passes away.

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Jul 8 • 11:23 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Cowboys 2026 roster rundown: G Tyler Smith

The Cowboys have one of the best guards in the league

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Jul 8 • 6:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Windows 11 cleanup is finally simple with this powerful open‑source tool that strips bloat, boosts speed, and gives you real control

A fast, free tool that declutters Windows 11 without ads or gimmicks.

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Jul 8 • 9:15 AM EDT • Technology • windowscentral.com
“M3GAN” spinoff “SOULM8TE” boots back up: Director talks erotic thriller’s new life as a digital release (exclusive)

“There’s such an audience for this movie, whether it be at home or in the theater,” Kate Dolan tells EW.

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Jul 8 • 9:00 AM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Netflix Games Suggest a Flat Future for Entertainment

Xbox layoffs, PlayStation's digital-only future, and Netflix video game forecast an increasingly flattened entertainment economy. Unhinged, review.

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Jul 7 • 8:00 PM EDT • Entertainment • indiewire.com
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Titan OS adds 30 Radial Entertainment FAST channels in Europe

Titan OS is adding and expanding reach of 30 free ad-supported streaming TV channels from Radial Entertainment’s FilmRise to its smart TV OS-powered device footprint across Europe. | Expansion of FilmRise channels internationally is currently a top priority for Radial, the company said.

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Jul 7 • 12:42 PM EDT • Entertainment • streamtvinsider.com
The Green Bay Packers Have a Tremendous History of Fighting Spirit and Resilience

From humble beginnings in a meatpacking town to thirteen NFL titles, discover how the community-owned Green Bay Packers defied the odds to become an enduring icon of American sports.

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Jul 7 • 4:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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FIFA Facing Major Michael Olise Decision Following Flo Balogun News

France is looking to push FIFA to rescind the yellow card that star forward Michael Olise was assessed.

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Jul 6 • 7:23 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Report: Quinten Post signs offer-sheet with Memphis Grizzlies

The Warriors will now have until Tuesday to match the Grizzlies contract offer.

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Jul 6 • 12:20 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Active volcano traps Whoopi Goldberg in Italy

Whoopi Goldberg is trapped in Italy amid an active volcano eruption, forcing her to miss ‘The View’ with airports closed in the region: ‘Spent most of the day trying to get back,’ she said.

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Jul 6 • 11:47 AM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Hennessey's New Hypercar Packs Over 2,000 Horsepower And A Manual

The Venom F5-M debuts with 2,031 horsepower and a gated six-speed manual. Hell yeah.

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Jul 6 • 5:00 AM EDT • Technology • motor1.com
Why U.S. measles outbreaks have grown harder to extinguish

As the nation nears last year’s record case total, experts say the virus is becoming harder to contain, forcing medicine to relearn a disease many thought had been consigned to history.

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Jul 6 • 5:00 AM EDT • Health • washingtonpost.com
Sam Reid on how 'The Vampire Lestat' episode 5 changes everything for the Brat Prince

Claudia is back, and breaking our hearts all over again.

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Jul 5 • 10:15 PM EDT • Entertainment • mashable.com
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‘All kinds of weird’: novelty store to open in midtown Sacramento

Ginger & Raven will operate on 1731 L St. selling novelty and accessory items such as keychains, compacts and Italian charm bracelets.

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Jul 5 • 9:00 AM EDT • Business • sacbee.com
It's Your Business | Hot new workout coming to south Champaign

Renovations have just begun for a Hotworx fitness studio at 2108 S. Neil St. in Champaign, and franchise owner Camille Groves hopes to open the location at the end of

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Jul 5 • 1:13 AM EDT • Business • news-gazette.com
New Steam Machine rival offers a Ryzen 9 CPU and RX 7600 XT for $849, but you have to bring your own RAM

AOOSTAR's GODY mini PC undercuts the Steam Machine with a Ryzen 9 CPU and RX 7600 XT GPU for $849, but there's a big catch: it doesn't have RAM.

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Jul 4 • 5:40 PM EDT • Technology • tweaktown.com
Fireworks, heat and politics: America celebrates its 250th birthday

The 250th anniversary of American independence is colliding with political polarization and a heat wave as celebrations get underway across the United States on Saturday.

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Jul 4 • 8:40 AM EDT • Politics • kgns.tv
Fireworks, heat and politics: America celebrates its 250th birthday

The 250th anniversary of American independence is colliding with political polarization and a heat wave as celebrations get underway across the United States on Saturday.

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Jul 4 • 8:40 AM EDT • Politics • 14news.com
Fireworks, heat and politics: America celebrates its 250th birthday

The 250th anniversary of American independence is colliding with political polarization and a heat wave as celebrations get underway across the United States on Saturday.

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Jul 4 • 8:40 AM EDT • Politics • kotatv.com
Stevie Nicks performed at Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Madison Square Garden wedding

The couple tied the knot in NYC.

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Jul 4 • 8:34 AM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Chicago Cubs news — Swanson, Conforto, Suzuki, PCA, Busch, Rea

Dansby Swanson’s reaction to his third home run of the day, a grand slam, to spark a remarkable 23-3 Cubs win Wednesday.

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Jul 4 • 8:00 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
From media empires to crypto: the best business books to read this summer

Keza MacDonald’s Super Nintendo and Martin Sixsmith’s Suing the Kremlin are among these top reads

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Jul 4 • 1:00 AM EDT • Business • theweek.com
Nick Mayer Ford Mayfield Expands Ford Transit Van Inventory for Businesses Across Northeast Ohio

Nick Mayer Ford Mayfield helps businesses throughout Mayfield Heights, Cleveland, Mentor, Euclid, Beachwood, Solon, and Northeast Ohio find the ...

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Jul 3 • 11:41 AM EDT • Business • markets.businessinsider.com
Russia's services downturn deepens as new business falls at fastest pace since December 2022, PMI shows

Russia's services sector contracted further in June as weaker client demand drove steeper falls in output and ​new orders, a business survey showed on Friday.

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Jul 3 • 2:08 AM EDT • Business • reuters.com
A new attack uses a BioShock-style puzzle to convince AI browsers they're not in the real world

Researchers from LayerX recently unveiled BioShocking, a new type of vulnerability designed to target AI-powered browsers capable of executing autonomous tasks on the open web. The security...

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Jul 2 • 3:02 PM EDT • Technology • techspot.com
District Director Catherine Marx Leaves SBA » CBIA

District director Catherine Marx is leaving the agency, concluding nearly six years of service overseeing small business programs.

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Jul 2 • 12:31 PM EDT • Business • cbia.com
Business Jet Departures in Middle East Drop 30% During Iran War

Business jet departures in the Middle East declined about 30% in the aftermath of the Iran war, a trend that’s at risk of continuing until a peace deal is signed.

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Jul 2 • 12:00 AM EDT • Business • bloomberg.com
Colorado signs Jaden Schwartz and Noah Juulsen in free agency

is the Avalanche roster now complete?

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Jul 1 • 9:45 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
‘The Gunfighter’: RXM Entertainment Vigilante Movie Sets Patrick Perez Vidauri To Direct

EXCLUSIVE: Patrick Perez Vidauri will direct the RXM Entertainment action movie, The Gunfighter. Written by Tom Jenkins, The Gunfighter follows Johnny Bandit, a philosophy student by day and a mysteri...

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Jul 1 • 8:23 PM EDT • Entertainment • yahoo.com
Victor Marx’s lead sits outside of recount threshold in Republican race for Colorado governor

Ministry leader Victor Marx on Wednesday night overtook state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer in the Republican primary for Colorado governor, securing enough votes that — for now — put the race beyond the mandatory recount threshold. The Republican primary race between Kirkmeyer and Marx briefly entered mandatory recount territory on Wednesday afternoon, with just a few hundred […]

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Jul 1 • 6:22 PM EDT • Politics • coloradopolitics.com
Victor Marx Won’t Say How Many People He’s Killed

Colorado’s Victor Marx, who is locked in a too-close-to-call race after Tuesday’s primary, has some unorthodox ideas.

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Jul 1 • 1:35 PM EDT • Politics • nymag.com
Google Gemini Spark Comes to Mac With Local File Automation

Google today launched Gemini Spark for its macOS desktop app, allowing the AI agent to automate tasks involving local files and desktop workflows. Google announced the update today, adding a dedicated Spark tab to the sidebar of the Gemini app for macOS. The feature allows the AI agent to take action on files stored locally on a user's computer rather than just responding to questions in a chat window.

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Jul 1 • 12:10 PM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com
Is the GOP race for Colorado governor heading into mandatory recount territory?

Not yet — not until the race tightens further as election officials tally more votes. The race for governor in the Republican primary between state Sen. Barb Kirkmeyer and ministry leader Victor Marx tightened on Tuesday night to roughly 1,400 votes, but whether a mandatory recount is triggered will depend on whether the margins shrink […]

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Jul 1 • 10:32 AM EDT • Politics • coloradopolitics.com
44-43: Chart

Bryan Woo excellent, offense comes alive late to secure Mariners series win

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Jul 1 • 12:36 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Taylor Sheridan makes rare comment on Kevin Costner's departure from 'Yellowstone'

Taylor Sheridan is speaking out about Kevin Costner's departure from 'Yellowstone' in season 5, revealing that the actor had been 'ready to go.'

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Jun 30 • 1:22 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Lionel Richie's ex-wife shares update on singer's condition after hospitalization

Lionel Richie's ex-wife, Brenda Harvey Richie, shared news on her former husband's health after a medical incident led to a concert stoppage and hospitalization.

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Jun 30 • 1:07 PM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Anthropic unveils 'Claude Science' AI platform for scientific research

Anthropic on Tuesday launched Claude Science, an AI platform designed to ​help scientists streamline research, analyze ‌data and manage complex computing workflows.

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Jun 30 • 1:02 PM EDT • Science • reuters.com
The John Rogers Contrarian Playbook: How Envista, MSG Entertainment, and Smucker Stack Up for Retirement Investors

John Rogers built his fortune hunting unloved stocks that the market abandoned too soon, but three of his favorite contrarian bets look very different when filtered through the lens of retirement income and low volatility.

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Jun 30 • 9:25 AM EDT • Entertainment • 247wallst.com
Samsung's new wide foldable phone revealed in leaked images

The same source also posted photos of the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra and Z Flip 8.

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Jun 30 • 8:05 AM EDT • Technology • mashable.com
New BioShocking Attack Tricks AI Browsers Into Leaking User Credentials

LayerX says BioShocking used indirect prompt injection to trick six AI browsers into copying credentials from signed-in accounts.

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Jun 30 • 4:37 AM EDT • Technology • thehackernews.com
How the Supreme Court became a power that is reshaping America

Sometimes, these days, it feels like the Supreme Court is running the country.

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Jun 30 • 12:00 AM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
Kristaps Porzingis reportedly reaches 2-year, $40 million extension to return to Warriors

Kristaps Porzingis was only dealt to Golden State ahead of the deadline last season.

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Jun 29 • 6:51 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
RANGERS AT GUARDIANS: Messick vs. Alexander/Santos, discussion

Let’s get one

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Jun 29 • 6:50 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Digital research repository arXiv to start new chapter as nonprofit

On July 1, the digital research respository arXiv, house at Cornell Tech, will transition to an independent nonprofit, enabling faster technological development, expanded partnerships and long-term financial sustainability.

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Jun 29 • 9:13 AM EDT • Science • news.cornell.edu
Hayao Miyazaki voice actor Akihiro Miwa dies at 91

Akihiro Miwa has died at age 91. The Hayao Miyazaki voice actor, who played roles in 'Princess Mononoke' and 'Howl's Moving Castle,' was also an iconic singer in Japan.

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Jun 29 • 8:46 AM EDT • Entertainment • ew.com
Former Sabres Defenseman Lands Nice Payday After Trade
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Jun 28 • 11:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
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The Siege of Death Mire

Imperial Victory! New Warhammer 40,000 miniatures revealed!

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Jun 28 • 8:00 PM EDT • Technology • warhammer-community.com
Suspicious Steam Machine clone from China costs just $688, has a Ryzen 5 5500 with an RX 6750 GRE GPU

A Chinese listing shows a Steam Machine clone with an RX 6750 GRE for $688, but spec errors and pricing math make this listing look very suspicious.

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Jun 28 • 5:45 PM EDT • Technology • tweaktown.com
SteamOS now offered with new gaming prebuilt PCs

MetaPCs Steamroller is a $1,299 desktop with SteamOS installed. The system uses Ryzen 5 9600X, Radeon RX 7600 and standard desktop parts.

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Jun 28 • 12:30 PM EDT • Technology • videocardz.com
Jimmie Williams could be Ohio State’s most important transfer addition

After averaging more than 15 points per game at Duquesne, Jimmie Williams brings physical scoring, positional versatility, and the dependable bench offense Ohio State has lacked in recent seasons.

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Jun 28 • 9:31 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
The new kings of the news business are in your inbox

Ryan Broderick has watched digital media companies flame out – beholden to a single source of funding or a fickle algorithm.

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Jun 27 • 8:00 PM EDT • Business • spokesman.com
My All-Time Historical Bears Team: Special Bears Unit

Take a look at @tjstarman’s All-Time roster of Chicago Bears historical standouts.

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Jun 27 • 5:00 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Exit statement from midfielder baffles Real Madrid fans

Real Madrid confirmed what had been an open secret on Friday, that Dani Ceballos would be leaving. The 29-year-old has been a bit-part player for some time, but continued reports about his exit seemed...

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Jun 27 • 4:45 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
'It's business': 2027 5-star CB on choosing Texas over Texas A&M

2027 5-star CB John Meredith "loves A&M to death" but made a reported business decision in choosing the Texas Longhorns.

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Jun 26 • 5:09 AM EDT • Business • sports.yahoo.com
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AI Assistant Tool QED Scores bioRxiv Preprint Quality

QED, an AI assistant tool, evaluates the originality and validity of bioRxiv preprints, assigning them QED Scores. Researchers report that its rankings often align with expert opinion.

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Jun 26 • 12:00 AM EDT • Science • the-scientist.com
The Chaotic President

Once unpredictable, Trump is now flailing.

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Jun 25 • 7:34 PM EDT • Politics • theatlantic.com
ESPN believes Detroit Lions have best weapons in NFL

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell believes the Detroit Lions have better offensive weapons than any other NFL team in 2026.

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Jun 25 • 6:20 PM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
M5 Ultra Mac Studio Could Launch in 2026 With Up to 768GB of RAM

Despite price increases across the Mac line, Apple is still planning to release a new Mac Studio as soon as this year, reports Bloomberg. Apple plans to introduce a new M5 Ultra chip as the final option in the M5 family before it transitions to the M6, M7, M7 Pro, and M7 Max. The M5 Ultra will come in a new version of the Mac Studio, which hasn't been updated since March 2025.

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Jun 25 • 5:30 PM EDT • Technology • macrumors.com
Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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