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Protecting lives everywhere
In 2025, the WHO Health Emergencies Programme responded to a growing number of health emergencies driven by conflict, climate shocks and disease outbreaks, amid severe funding constraints. This report shows how WHO delivered life‑saving health services, supported countries to detect and control outbreaks, and helped maintain essential health care in some of the world’s most fragile settings
House Again Blocks War Powers Vote to Halt Iran Conflict
But two vulnerable Republicans joined Democrats in the effort to force President Trump to win authorization from Congress, in the latest sign of G.O.P. jitters over the war.
Pageantry meets politics: Xi’s stark Taiwan warning counters Trump’s optimism
Xi warns Trump that mishandling Taiwan could spark U.S.-China conflict; trade, Iran crisis, and economic ties also dominate Beijing summit.
Indianapolis public health office audit referred to state for examination
The city's Office of Audit and Performance has given the report to the Indiana State Board of Accounts, highlighting "high risk" factors including conflicts of interest and missing documentation for most contracts.
How Family Employment Policies Protect Business Legacy
Family employment policies balance loyalty with merit, preventing conflicts while safeguarding business health across generations
Donald Trump demands Xi Jinping ‘open’ China to US business
US president arrives in Beijing for two-day summit clouded by geopolitical tensions and conflict over trade and tech
Gilts Become ‘Half-Hour Trade’ on Politics, HSBC’s Kettner Says
(Bloomberg) -- The UK’s fractious politics is making investors wary of long-term wagers in the country’s gilt markets, according to HSBC Holdings Plc’s Max Kettner.Most Read from BloombergAmbani’s Cola War With Coke, Pepsi Spurs Fridge Bonanza in IndiaNvidia’s CEO Joins Trump in China With AI in the SpotlightInside a Year of Chaos and Conflict at Kevin Hart’s Media CompanyMamdani Scraps Property Tax Hike, Counts Second-Home Revenue“I’d love to buy them because obviously long-end yields are so en
Hegseth faces bipartisan grilling about weapons drawdown during the Iran war
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is facing tough questions from Republican and Democratic lawmakers about the Trump administration’s end game for the Iran war, the cost of the conflict and its
Trump Faces Emboldened Xi in China as Iran War Clips US Leverage
Donald Trump is expecting economic deals and a “wild” welcome this week in China. In reality, he’ll arrive facing an emboldened Xi Jinping, just as his own hand is constrained by the conflict in Iran.
Trump seeks to pause federal gas tax as prices soar amid Iran conflict
Congress would have to approve the proposal, and passing the savings on to drivers, rather than oil companies, would be difficult to enforce.
Trump’s role as LIV Golf host renews scrutiny over conflicts of interest
Experts are raising conflict-of-interest and ethical concerns after President Donald Trump hosted a LIV Golf event at his Virginia property this weekend, renewing scrutiny over whether the Trump family is financially benefiting from his time in office while supporting a golf league backed by a government accused of human rights abuses.
Steve Kerr reportedly agrees to 2-year deal with Warriors after exit rumors, remains highest-paid coach in NBA
Steve Kerr had reportedly been conflicted about his future with the Warriors for weeks.
Business Lookahead: Trump on Tour
STORY: From Trump's trip to China, to a slew of new U.S. data releases, these are the stories to watch in business and finance in the coming week. :: Trump goes to Beijing U.S. President Donald Trump visits Beijing on Thursday and Friday.It will be his first visit to China in eight years.He'll try to lock in the trade truce agreed to in October in South Korea, and avoid a rerun of the tit-for-tat tariff battle that he set off a year ago.Fresh trade data should offer a reality check on whether a protectionist White House has managed to dent Americans' appetite for Chinese-made goods.:: Saudi Aramco posts resultsThe world's biggest exporter of crude oil, Saudi Aramco, reports first-quarter results on Sunday.The numbers are expected to show the pain from the more than two-month-old Iran war.This comes as efforts to end the conflict appeared to stall after the U.S. and Iran traded fire in recent days, with some of the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire began a month ago.:: U.S. economic dataA bunch of new data should give a clearer view of inflation in the U.S.Tuesday's April consumer price index is expected to rise 0.6% according to a Reuters poll.Prices at the pump are likely to loom large in the numbers.Producer price data for April on Wednesday is another inflation checkpoint after the Fed’s last meeting exposed a more hawkish tilt among some policymakers who are increasingly uneasy about price pressures.And retail sales figures on Thursday should show whether higher gas prices and other costs are starting to bite into household spending.
Small businesses in N.C. feeling support amidst economic uncertainty
Small businesses are seeing higher costs from global conflict, but many say local community support is helping them see growth.
Lawyers for press dinner gunman seek to disqualify Pirro and Blanche from case citing their presence at event
The legal team of the man accused of opening fire at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last month has asked the court to disqualify top Department of Justice officials from being involved in his case, arguing there is a conflict of interest because they were present during the incident.
Milwaukee doula program goes to contract model to improve availability
Doulas were previously on staff at the health department, where typical work hours conflicted with times they were needed by pregnant clients, according to the program manager.
Trump is trapped by his own strategy as he grapples for an exit in Iran
If words won wars, Donald Trump’s Iran conflict would have ended long ago.
Iran war strains global business travel, as companies adjust meeting plans
Global conflicts are causing some companies to examine their “duty of care” policies and could bring back more virtual meetings, the survey found.
Joint call by the President of the ICRC, the Director-General of WHO and the International President of MSF
Ten years ago, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2286 on health care in armed conflicts. The situation is even worse compared to 10 years ago. T
Trump Faces the Complicated Reality of a Costly, Unpopular War in Iran
President Trump’s predictions of a relatively short-term conflict with minimal economic consequences appear to be crumbling.
Beyond the Politics:The Human Cost Behind the Israel–Iran Conflict
TEL AVIV — The conflict between Iran, the U.S., and Israel remains volatile as Iran submits a new 14‑point peace proposal through Pakistan while warning that fighting may soon resume, with Iranian military officials saying the U.S. is not committed to agreements. President Donald Trump has expressed...
New Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza non-committal about visiting White House with Indiana teammates
Mendoza said that he "can't miss practice," and was unsure if he had a conflict. The Raiders' OTAs start a week after Indiana's visit.
Business Lookahead: Eyeing oil, US jobs, and European earnings
STORY: From high oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East to U.S. jobs data and corporate earnings, here’s what you need to watch in business and finance in the week ahead.:: Crude and currencyOil prices briefly topped $120 a barrel this week to hit their highest level since 2022 as the war with Iran enters a third month.While the U.S. and Iran face pressure to end a conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, the world watches anxiously as the biggest-ever disruption to energy supplies unfolds.For each week the Strait is closed, keeping oil elevated, the greater the economic risks via higher inflation or weak growth or, for some, both. Oil importer Japan just intervened to prop up a yen that has been weakened by the conflict.A new month is now underway and some traders will be mindful of that old adage, "Sell in May and go away.":: Jobs gyrationsAs the U.S. economy grapples with fallout from the Middle East war, Wall Street's radar turns to Friday's April monthly payrolls report.The U.S. economy likely created 73,000 new jobs, economists polled by Reuters forecast. In March, payrolls increased by 178,000, the most since December 2024, but that followed a sharp decline in February.The U.S. employment data comes amid signs of hawkishness at the Federal Reserve, as Donald Trump pick Kevin Warsh prepares to take over as chair with the U.S. president keen on rate cuts.:: Starmer’s statusThursday's local elections in Britain, usually a non-event for investors, could move markets in a big way, with opinion polls pointing to a heavy defeat for Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party.A heavy defeat could spark more widespread demands for his dismissal among his own lawmakers and stoke expectations of a successor more willing to run looser budgets. That would bring more bad news for British bonds.::European earningsIt's a big week for European earnings with Shell and Commerzbank among those reporting.On aggregate, profits are expected to grow 3.2% in Q1, according to LSEG I/B/E/S. Under the surface, it's a little bit more complicated. Growth is expected to be driven by just three sectors: financials, tech and energy. The latter is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the Iran war due to higher oil and gas prices.But if the war, and energy surge, persist, the overall outlook for Europe's earnings could turn.
Trump says Iran conflict is ‘terminated’ as he hits congressional deadline
Trump’s statement came as the United States continues to enforce a naval blockade of Iran and as he declined to rule out additional strikes on the country.
As Iran War Reaches 60-Day Mark, Republicans in Congress Grow Impatient With Trump
Months into the operation and with midterms looming, some lawmakers are calling for Congress to restrain the president’s war power or set terms for bringing the conflict to a close.
What Businesses Are Saying: The Impact of the Conflict Has Been Limited ... For Now
Businesses reported limited impact from the Middle East conflict in the lead up to the April FOMC meeting, with consumers continuing to spend and more cost pressure and supply chain disruption still to come.
Poll: Trump’s Iran war reaches Iraq- and Vietnam-era disapproval levels
A Post-ABC-Ipsos poll shows most Americans call the military action a mistake, even as Republicans remain strongly supportive. Many fear the conflict will lead to a recession.
Trump is supposed to get Congress’ approval when the Iran war hits 60 days. Lawmakers can’t agree when that is.
A Vietnam-era law says Congress must sign off on the Iran war after the conflict hits the 60-day mark. The only problem: Lawmakers can’t agree when that deadline actually hits. And now they’ve left town.
Trump knew he would take a political hit for acting on Iran: Veteran
U.S. Army special forces veteran Jim Hanson gives expert analysis on the state of U.S.-Iran conflict while applauding President Donald Trump’s foreign policy efforts on ‘Hannity.’
How Prediction Markets are Colliding With California and National Politics
Prediction markets have exploded in recent years, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allowing people to put real money on everything from sports outcomes to election results to armed conflicts overseas. Marisa, Scott and Guy discuss how these markets are influencing state and national politics. Then, they’re joined by Kate Knibbs, senior writer at WIRED, to understand who’s governing these platforms and how they’ve managed to flourish even in states where gambling is illegal. Check out
Hegseth says clock paused ahead of key date in Iran conflict
Friday marks a critical day in the two-month-old war.
Nationals get conflicting CJ Abrams trade deadline prediction
This is an odd pair of predictions for the Nationals.
The art of politics: how global conflicts are playing out in this year's Venice Biennale
Israel and Russia's return to the Biennale has sparked threats of disruption
The Political Transformation of Corporate America, 2001–2022 -
The Political Transformation of Corporate America, 2001–2022 By Reilly S. Steel, Columbia University This article reconciles conflicting views about the political landscape of corporate America with new data on the revealed political preferences of 97,469 [...]
“Political Disaster for Donald Trump”: Jeremy Scahill on Stalled U.S.-Iran Talks
Negotiations between the United States and Iran to end the war are at an impasse as the conflict enters its third month. The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday that Trump has told aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iranian ports to ramp up the pressure on Tehran. Iran is saying it will enter into direct talks with the U.S. “when President Trump lifts what Iran considers to be the illegal military naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz,” says Drop Site News co-founder Jeremy Scahill. “Iran has maintained that it’s not shut down the strait, but that it’s just shut it down for any vessels that are linked to the U.S. war in any way.” Scahill says a disorganized Trump administration is pushing a “total propaganda narrative” that it has the upper hand in negotiations, while Iran believes it has the “three M’s” on its side: munitions, markets and the midterms.
Senate Republicans reject attempt to end Trump's blockade of Cuba
The vote on the war powers resolution showed how Republicans continue to stand behind Trump as he acts unilaterally to exert American force in a range of global conflicts, including Venezuela, Iran and Cuba.
Why China is surging its nuclear forces
For decades China kept a minimal nuclear force. Now it’s rapidly expanding under Xi Jinping. DW explores why Beijing is building a vast arsenal of missiles and warheads. What conflicts may China be preparing for?
Bickley: Suns' season ends with conflicting feelings
The Suns' playoff appearance in Year 1 showed Jordan Ott may have them on the right path, but the sweep at the hands of the Thunder shows they still have a long ways to go.
Rock Island alderman’s family business withdraws bid for city catering contract amid conflict concerns
Global consumer companies face pricing stress test from oil shock
The fragile demand recovery seen by consumer companies globally is at risk of getting stalled by chances of more prices hikes as a result of soaring energy and commodity costs due to the Middle East conflict.
Healing Divides in the Eastern Mediterranean: How Health Systems Can Become Bridges to Peace in Conflict Zones
Health systems, if deliberately designed, can help rebuild trust in societies fractured by war in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The Guardian view on Starmer’s Mandelson gamble: his political judgment faces scrutiny in pivotal week
Editorial: Conflicting accounts will be tested in parliament. The outcome may not be decisive, but risks reinforcing concerns about PM’s leadership
Fossil-Fuel Funded GOP Leaders Claim a Renowned Scientific Institution Has ‘Potential Conflicts of Interest’
Republican allies of the oil and gas industry question the objectivity of an independent report from the nation’s top science advisers on the harms of human-caused climate change.
German Business Outlook at Worst Since 2023 as War Hits ‘Hard’
Germany’s business outlook deteriorated more than expected, adding to fears that higher energy costs stemming from the Iran conflict will derail the country’s economic revival.
“Us versus them”: How political propaganda polarises beliefs without providing any news
Political polarisation is often attributed to misinformation, echo chambers, or biased news. But new experimental evidence suggests that merely making a social conflict salient – without providing any information at all – is enough to sharply increase disagreement on both factual and normative questions. This column discusses how politicians and media can ‘artificially’ amplify societal tensions by strategically choosing which conflicts to highlight, and why this mechanism is harder to counter than standard misinformation.
How the Iran War Is Morphing Into a Volatile Standoff in the Strait of Hormuz
The conflict has morphed into a volatile standoff in the Strait of Hormuz, as the economic costs mount and President Trump faces a political backlash at home.
Global business travel optimism drops sharply in Q1, GBTA survey shows
Pessimism among business travel professionals has nearly tripled since the start of the year amid concerns over geopolitical conflict. Weakened sentiment could impact U.S. hotels.
French Business Activity Sinks to 14-Month Low on Services
(Bloomberg)--French business activity shrank at the fastest pace in more than a year, driven by a slump in the services sector as the Iran conflict made consumers more cautious on spending.
State law conflict sees WIAA sink proposal to ban transgender students from girls’ sports
A proposal to bar transgender girls from participating in girls’ sports has failed for a second consecutive year in Washington, falling short of the supermajori
US burning through weapons in Iran it needs for China war
The US has heavily expended key munitions. It has enough for the Iran war but risks vulnerability in a future conflict with China, experts warn.
Cougar science sidelined as pressure takes over
Editor’s Note: This is the final part of a three-part series. By the time Washington’s cougar debate reached its peak intensity, the conflict was no longer limited to public meetings or policy discussions. It had infiltrated the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife itself. What had started as pressure from outside — from parents, hunters,
Kayleigh McEnany: Politicians have been ‘lying to you’
‘Saturday in America’ host Kayleigh McEnany discusses the Democratic Party’s stance on the Iran conflict and President Donald Trump’s response on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’
Approval of Trump on economy falls in new AP-NORC poll, as Iran war drives up prices
The findings from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research show a president who is struggling with unfulfilled promises to tame inflation and testing Americans’ patience with a conflict in the Middle East that has dragged on longer than expected.
Pulitzer Prize winner shares historic nature of politics as U.S. celebrates 250th anniversary
Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and New York Times bestselling author Jon Meacham discussed the nature of American politics through pivotal moments in U.S. history. Meacham said that the nation was originally founded on the notion of politics as “an aspirational arena of contention,” where different interests were disputed before reaching a consensus. He added that conflicts regarding power and other matters are inevitable.
South African Business Optimism Wanes in March on Iran Conflict
South African business confidence moderated in March as the US-Israeli war with Iran roiled financial, commodity and foreign-exchange markets.
Trump tells Maria ‘deal will be signed tonight’ as tensions explode in Strait of Hormuz
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., joins ‘Mornings with Maria’ to debate the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, clash over oil exports and gas prices, and challenge President Donald Trump’s strategy as tensions surge in the Strait of Hormuz.
M&C Saatchi predicts hit to sports and entertainment arms from Iran conflict
The advertising giant held off from handing shareholders a dividend as it battles ‘tough’ macroeconomic conditions.
UK's M&C Saatchi warns Mideast war could hit sport and entertainment business
British advertising group M&C Saatchi warned on Monday that the Middle East conflict is likely to significantly impact its sport, entertainment and consumer-facing business, while forecasting 2026 operating profit in line with market expectations.
UK's M&C Saatchi warns Mideast war could hit sport and entertainment business
British advertising group M&C Saatchi warned on Monday that the Middle East conflict is likely to significantly impact its sport, entertainment and consumer-facing business, while forecasting 2026 operating profit in line with market expectations.
New threats and tensions rattle Iran ceasefire and test peace push
The Iran ceasefire and expected peace talks this week are hanging by a thread as tensions boil over the strategic waterway that epitomizes Tehran’s new leverage and a conflict that critics warn has escaped President Donald Trump’s control.
Fed’s Beige Book reveals Iran conflict’s impact on business confidence
Former World Bank President David Malpass discusses economic uncertainty amid the Iran conflict, the state of the Federal Reserve and more on ‘Varney & Co.’
The Hard Truths Behavioral Science Must Face in Conflict Settings - by Britt Titus
Approximately 2 billion people live in conflict-affected areas. Yet most of the theories, experiments, and interventions developed in behavioral science are based on stable contexts.
4.5mm iPhone Ultra/Fold cases and "final design" renders leak; big MagSafe mystery
Leaked iPhone Ultra/Fold cases confirm a wider book-style foldable design for Apple’s 2026 flagship. However, the leaked images suggest a conflict between the device's ultra-thin 4.5mm chassis and MagSafe compatibility, as dummy units lack magnets while cases include them. Known iPhone Ultra/Fold features include a 7.8-inch display, A20 Pro chip, and a late 2026 release date.
Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears
The president’s impulsive style has never been tested in a sustained military conflict, and he’s been ruminating on Jimmy Carter’s failure in Iran.
NFL will not investigate Patriots coach Mike Vrabel over photos with Dianna Russini
With questions about conduct and conflict of interest, Mike Vrabel will not face investigation related to the Dianna Russini photos.
Trump envoy faces 'sweeping' investigation over business ties, diplomatic role
Democratic U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin launched what he described as a "sweeping" investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump's envoy and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, over a potential conflict of interest, according to an April 17 press release. The inquiry focuses on Kushner's dual role as a diplomatic intermediary and head of a private equity firm, raising questions about whether his financial ties could influence U.S. foreign policy decisions. Kushner has played a central role in Trum
Every test at the US Army's mad science lab
As the military prepares for conflicts in harsher climates, the US Army's Natick Labs invests millions to improve what soldiers wear, eat, and carry.
Strait of Hormuz blockade ‘working to provide leverage,’ political strategist says
An ‘All-Star’ panel joins ‘Special Report’ to discuss the state of US-Iran negotiations and the impact of the conflict on gas prices and affordability.
Memory Wars: Facts, Disinformation, and the Politics of Remembrance
The 14th European Remembrance Symposium in Bratislava, Slovakia, on 27–29 May 2026, will explore how collective memory is shaped and weaponized in today’s geopolitical climate. Bringing together an illustrious line-up of experts, the event examines disinformation, identity, and the role of historical narratives in modern political conflict.
The gamble in Trump’s Iran blockade that could decide the war
President Donald Trump’s switch from kinetic to economic warfare with his blockade of Iran’s ships and ports is an attempt to end the conflict without a new US-Israeli onslaught.
Slovenia Plans Referendum on NATO Membership
Slovenia hopes to scale down involvement in international conflicts and avoid interference in foreign and diplomatic disputes.
SB 1397: Better Science = Better Policy
Managing California’s majestic mountain lion population, particularly in areas of conflict with areas where humans...
Parenting and Politics: How to Talk to Kids about War
Parenting in times of conflict is never simple. But it is also an opportunity to raise thoughtful, compassionate, and courageous children with a strong moral compass.
Roundup: Business optimism / Cleveland’s housing answer / America at 250
Slipping further: U.S. small business optimism fell for a third straight month in March, hitting its lowest level in nearly a year as the Iran conflict drove up energy costs and uncertainty. Owners reported weaker expectations for profits, sales and economic conditions, while plans for capital spending dropped sharply. Rising input costs are also prompting […]
Despite Israeli firepower, Netanyahu struggles for political gains in Iran war
The Iran war was meant to deliver a defining victory over Tehran that would secure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's place in history. More than six weeks into the conflict, he has been unable to translate military might into political gain.
After three years of conflict, Sudan faces a deeper health crisis
14 April 2026, Geneva, Cairo, Port Sudan – Three years of war in Sudan have created the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis, with devastating consequences for people’s health.While the situation is...
After three years of conflict, Sudan faces a deeper health crisis
Three years of war in Sudan have created the world’s largest humanitarian and displacement crisis, with devastating consequences for people’s health.
Event report: Exploring the potential and applications of citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts
Report: the European Citizen Science Association’s new WG on citizen science in areas affected by armed conflicts' first in-person event.
Artificial sweeteners: Why the science war is raging on
Conflicting studies on artificial sweeteners are fuelling fresh debate across food and drink, as health risks, regulation and reformulation collide worldwide.
What Does Artificial Intelligence Really Mean for Global Politics?
As AI increasingly plays a central role in conflict and war, experts discuss its long-term impact on global politics.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
Ken Bridges explores Roger Mills in Texas' Civil War efforts, politics
In his latest Texas history column, Ken Bridges explores the life and impact of Roger Mills - from Civil War battles to conflicts in U.S. politics.
Young Republicans more skeptical of Iran war, dividing Trump base
Even within Trump’s GOP base, cracks are showing when it comes to the Iran conflict. Younger Republicans are much less likely to support the war.
Artemis II was a product of politics. Then it sent us over the Moon
In both 1968 and 2026, a mission to the Moon offered a refreshing blast of positivity for a conflict-ridden world. So what's different now — and what do we really gain from this new moonshot, five decades after the first?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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