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Jefferson CEO, in visit to Lehigh Valley, says ball is in UnitedHealthCare’s court after policyholders go out of network with LVHN
“I think they’re trying to wait us out because they have billions,” Jefferson CEO Joseph Cacchione said regarding the ongoing contact dispute between Lehigh Valley Health Network, which is part of Jefferson, and UnitedHealthCare.
Meet Goldman’s athlete whisperer: the woman who stands guard against $1 billion of fraud targeting sports fortunes
Nicole Pullen Ross has advised the ultrawealthy for 26 years at Goldman Sachs. She talked to Fortune about working in sports and seeing a number get retired.
Fifa announces three World Cup opening ceremonies
Katy Perry, Michael Buble and Alanis Morissette are among the artists who will perform at three World Cup opening ceremonies this summer.
Dodgers do just enough to outlast Braves in opener
LOS ANGELES — The Dodgers clawed and scrapped their way to some offense against Chris Sale to get the better of the Atlanta Braves 3-1 in Friday night’s series opener between perennial National League powerhouses at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers had only five hits in seven innings against Sale, but made them count. Teoscar Hernández […]
UFC 328 Ceremonial Weigh-In Video
The UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Ceremonial Weigh-Ins took place on Friday in Newark, New Jersey. The fight card at the Prudential Center features two world title bouts. The event is headlined by a middleweight title fight between undefeated champion Khamzat Chimaev and former ...
UFC Freedom 250 Press Conference Face-Offs
Following Thursday's UFC Freedom 250 press conference, the headlining fighters faced off for the cameras. The event takes place on June 14 at the White House. Lightweight champion Ilia Topuria puts his title on the line for the first time in the fight card’s main event against interim ...
WATCH: K-State HC Collin Klein chats with 13 Sports at Topeka Catbackers event
Klein went live with 13 Sports at 6 to discuss Thursday night's event in Topeka.
Bullying or entertainment? Kyle Sandilands argues that fights with Jackie O were ratings gold for Kiis FM
Shock jock claims his bosses had monetised the conduct he was sacked for. Plus: Michael Gawenda v Jeff Sparrow
Gmail adds AI Inbox to the bottom bar as Help me write becomes more personal
After its introduction on the web, AI Inbox is coming to Gmail for Android and iOS. In the navigation drawer, “AI Inbox” appears below...
Tom Aspinall reveals his UFC 328 main event prediction
We're deep into UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland fight week and analysts, fighters, and fans are making their predictions for the main event middleweight title bout. Undefeated champion Khamzat Chimaev puts his title on the line for the first time against former titleholder Sean Strickland and ...
UFC 328 Embedded, Episode 3: 'I love my job'
On the third episode of UFC 328 Embedded, Tatsuro Taira packs his suitcase and heads to New Jersey; Joshua Van hits one last strength and conditioning session with his mother; Ateba Gautier takes his traditional fight week trip to see some animals; Waldo Cortes Acosta hits everything but the pads ...
Brighton, Hartland boys volleyball players quickly learning new sport
The movie Top Gun was part of the inspiration for the start of boys volleyball at Hartland two years ago.
Shipping firms are being whipsawed by changing stances and risks as they wait for Hormuz to reopen
With hundreds of vessels still stuck in the Persian Gulf and costs piling up, shipping companies are being whipsawed by uncertainty over how and when the Strait of Hormuz might reopen more than two months into the Iran war.
Outstanding Seniors in the College of Science: Veronica Klawender
The College of Science is proud to recognize 12 outstanding seniors who went above and beyond during their time as Wildcats. Veronica Klawender is this semester's recipient from Ecology & Evolutionary Biology!
Atrium Health, WakeMed propose to merge
WakeMed would become part of Advocate Health, Atrium’s parent company. The deal has sparked concern from local lawmakers, who worry it could raise healthcare prices in North Carolina’s most populous county.
‘Death Whisperer’ Filmmaker’s Thai Horror ‘1 After One’ Boards Chada Entertainment for Sales Ahead of Cannes Market (EXCLUSIVE)
Chada Entertainment has taken on international sales rights to Thai supernatural horror “1 After One” ahead of the Cannes Film Market, with a first-look image unveiled. The project is produced by Tawe...
UFC 328 Countdown: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
The middleweight title will be up for grabs in the UFC 328 main event. Undefeated champion Khamzat Chimaev (15-0) and former titleholder Sean Strickland (30-7) collide in a match between bitter rivals. UFC 328 Countdown previews the middleweight title clash.
'Awesome' Armagh but Monaghan 'have a chance' in final
Former Armagh All-Ireland winner Oisin McConville says that Monaghan "absolutely have a chance" in the Ulster SFC final, despite Armagh's impressive dismantling of Down in Sunday's semi-final.
Mike Perry wants Jake Paul in an MMA fight
Former UFC fighter and Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship's "King of Violence" Mike Perry lost to Jake Paul in a boxing match in July 2024. "Platinum" wants a rematch but under mixed martial arts rules. "I think things come full circle all the time. I've continued to work hard before getting the ...
Ask.com shuts down after nearly 30 years, marking the end of Ask Jeeves
After nearly 30 years, Ask.com has officially closed on May 1, 2026. It was the pioneer of question-answering search engines.
UFC Perth Post-Fight Press Conference
Following today's fights at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, the winners will answer questions from the media during the post-fight press conference. The event was headlined by a welterweight bout between former champion Jack Della Maddalena takes on No. 5 ranked Carlos.
New Lithium-Plasma Engine Passes Key Mars Propulsion Test
You’re on the fourth human mission to Mars, and you’re told the Odyssey spacecraft designed to take you there will be the smoothest ride you’ll ever take. It features a newly christened electric propulsion engine which was in the late stages of testing during the first three missions. The mission starts and the spacecraft travels at a crawl, and you wonder if it’s broken. A week goes by and you’re now traveling at more than 400,000 kilometers (250,000 miles) per hour, and your mind is blown as to how fast you’re going, how quickly that happened, and that this mission might be more awesome than you thought.
Xbox's new April Update brings awesome improvements to Xbox and PC, including one I've wanted Microsoft to add for years
Xbox consoles and Xbox on PC just got upgraded with huge customization features and gameplay options.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Empire City Review
This empty shell of an adventure falls short of realizing the awesome potential of being the turtle bros in VR.
UFC Perth: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Pre-Fight Press Conference
The UFC Perth: Della Maddalena Pre-Fight Press Conference took place on Thursday ahead of this weekend's event in Australia. The fight card is headlined why a welterweight bout between former champion Jack Della Maddalena and No. 5 ranked Carlos Prates. The event will mark the fight promotion's ...
After a Decade in Business, My Lil’ Cube Is Still a Super Flavorful Fave
Put your description here...
Design a mural for Indiana Fever’s new sports performance center
Artists must be 18 and live in Central Indiana to be eligible.
Billionaires Are Dominating California Politics, From Governor’s Race to Wealth Tax Proposal
Between Sergey Brin and Tom Steyer, ultrawealthy people are trying to guide the state’s direction.
Huawei Mate XT2 tipped to debut in October with these upgrades
It is said to offer camera hardware similar to the Mate X7. New details about the true successor to Huawei’s Mate XT Ultimate Edition tri-fold smartphone...
Opinion | Getting handle on how insurance spurs high health care costs
Readers react to Dr. Ashish K. Jha's argument that high deductibles and flawed incentives are pushing prices higher.
Sabastian Sawe becomes first person to run under two hours in a marathon, winning London race in record 1:59:30
The late Kelvin Kiptum set the previous world record at the 2023 Chicago Marathon in 2 hours, 35 seconds.
Sabastian Sawe wins London Marathon in record time, 1st to finish in under 2 hours
Sabastian Sawe became the first person to run a marathon in under 2 hours, smashing the world record by winning the London Marathon in 1 hour, 59 minutes and 30 seconds on Sunday.
London Marathon 2026 results: Sabastian Sawe makes history with first competitive sub two-hour marathon
Sabastian Sawe makes history as the first person to run a sub-two hour marathon in a competitive race at the London Marathon.
24,000-year-old frozen ‘zombie worm’ thawed by scientists — then it shockingly started reproducing
I shopped Gap's Victoria Beckham collection. It's good, but flawed.
The Gap x Victoria Beckham line is full of high-quality basics and chic designs. Unfortunately, many of the items seemed too tight or too long on me.
Hochul pushes lawmakers to back car insurance reforms
Her critics say it’s not that simple, and the plan is flawed.
UFC Vegas 116 weigh-in results: All fights officially set
The UFC octagon is back in Las Vegas for Saturday's UFC Vegas 116: Sterling vs. Zalal fight card at the Meta Apex. The event is headlined by a featherweight bout between former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling and No. 7 ranked Youssef Zalal. On Friday, the athletes competing on the fight ...
Gouldsboro aquaculture business selected for blue technology accelerator
Springtide has trained hundreds of seaweed farmers in the U.S., Europe, Australia and Asia. It supplies seaweed seed to industry and research institutions throughout the U.S.
Goodbye, OTPs and magic links: Signing up for new Android apps just got a lot easier
Google has introduced a new Verified Email feature to Android, and it's about to make signing up for new apps much easier.
A flawed diagnosis of Cuban health care
Progressives who praise communist systems just prove how gullible they are.
Trump administration settles lawsuit with ex-Trump adviser Carter Page
The Justice Department has reached a settlement in a lawsuit brought by former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page, who sued the DOJ and FBI for over flawed government surveillance he faced due to his Russian contacts in 2016, according to a filing with the Supreme Court Wednesday.
Ilia Topuria goes off on 'dumb as f***' Arman Tsarukyan
Top UFC lightweight contender Arman Tsarukyan has made as many headlines for his antics outside of the cage as in it. The 29-year-old has stuck a fan on his walkout to the octagon, head butted an opponent during face-offs, engaged in a post-fight brawl at RAF 6, got thrown off an airplane and ...
Dustin Poirier: Zuffa Boxing not an option for UFC fighters
In recent years. several former or retired UFC fighters have extended their combat sports careers by transitioning to boxing. Former champions Tyron Woodley, Anderson Silva and Francis Ngannou have. Ben Askren, Nate Diaz, Jorge Masvial, Mike Perry and Darren Till also have, among others. Former ...
United Q1 earnings top estimates as premium business partly offsets fuel price surge
United Airlines will report first quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, capping off a stretch that whipsawed the sector, and the airline, on oil prices, merger talk, and broader questions about the health of the consumer.
Shaky political science: using "simulated" elections over real-world elections
[Dear DSOS readers – this article is the latest in our “Shaky Political Science” series. In our 38 page report, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting,” released in early December, we examined over 40 studies focused on ranked choice voting. We found that many of these studies suffered from puzzling research methodologies, poorly constructed surveys, unrealistic simulated elections, cherry picked data, and faulty analyses that often were contradicted by results from real-world elections (a link to our full paper is here). Here are links to the first three articles in our series: the first one summarizing the overall results of our report, the second one analyzing a study co-authored by University of Minnesota academic Larry Jacobs, which was one of the most error-prone of all the research we reviewed in our report, and a third article showing an admirable example of two political scientists holding two other political scientists accountable for their flawed, sloppy research]. In this fourth article in our “Shaky Political Science” series, we shine a spotlight on seven studies that were web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group (the ERRG is an ad hoc committee headed by New America’s Political Reform Program and joined by the American Enterprise Institute, the Unite America Institute and Stanford University’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law). This research consortium has been led by Lee Drutman, senior fellow with New America’s Political Reform Program. These seven studies are simply not credible from any objective standard about how political “science” is supposed to illuminate our understanding of either ranked choice voting or politics in general. The feature that six of these seven studies have in common is that they all used surveys – artificial, simulated elections -- to attempt to say something cogent or interesting about ranked choice voting (RCV) elections. None of them used real world data from actual RCV elections – either the 1000+ elections in the US or the many thousands of elections from places like Australia, Ireland and elsewhere where RCV has been used for 100 years. While a few of these studies conclude with some mixed positives about RCV, our analysis here is content neutral. The idea that, with a political reform like RCV, you can ask respondents in a mock, artificial election to vote with that method, with only the barest of explanation about how RCV works or its likely impacts (i.e. no spoiler candidates, majority winners, voters liberated to pick their favorite candidates, coalition-building), and then ask them their thoughts/reactions about voting in that system, with fake candidates and no real campaigning, no real exposure to an actual election or actual candidates, rests on some very puzzling assumptions. The findings of these seven studies actually are contradicted by the findings from many other studies based on real-world RCV elections. These New America studies also failed to list the real-world RCV studies in their own citations, instead including those studies that reinforced their conclusions. The seven studies featured in this article were chosen because they form a cohesive cohort which precisely illustrates one of the main points of our research paper, namely that using surveys, i.e. artificial elections, or mathematical/theoretical models, instead of real-world data, is in fact “shaky political science.” Below are summaries of our analysis of five of the seven New America studies. You can read our complete analysis of all seven studies at our paper, “Shaky political ‘science’ misses mark on ranked choice voting.” Choosing to “Vote As Usual” by Andre Blais, Carolina Plescia, and Semra Sevi. New America. (Blais et al., 2021). This study, web-hosted and funded by New America’s Political Reform Program and its Electoral Reform Research Group, used two surveys in which respondents completed ballots for simulated elections using plurality, approval, RCV and point (Score) voting. In both cases the authors provided the respondents with only minimal explanation of each method. For example, the entire explanation for RCV was “For this vote, rank the candidates from your first to your last choice (you do not need to rank them all). This is called the ranked vote.” That’s it. The study did not provide any context or explanation to survey respondents about why she/he might want to rank multiple candidates. Participants were not even told that ballots would be tabulated using an “instant” runoff, not to mention any description of RCVs ability to eliminate the spoiler effect or liberate voters to rank their favorite candidates without fear of helping the “greater evil” candidate to win. That’s like taking an iPhone back in time to 1970 and asking someone if they like it better than their rotary phone without explaining how it works. Their first survey targeted states that held 2020 Super Tuesday Democratic primaries and used the real candidates’ names in the survey; the second survey used fictitious candidates. In other words, they surveyed respondents who had only ever participated in plurality elections, had no history or background with using RCV or any of the other methods, had no clue about its likely impacts, and did not communicate how the alternative methods would be counted, and then asked them: “How satisfied are you with using each system?” Predictably, the winner was plurality elections, the system used for president, Congress, gubernatorial and state legislative elections – in other words, the method they have been using, year after year, all their voting lives. With so little explanation of RCV and its impacts, this study is simply not credible in discovering anything useful about real-world RCV elections. It merely shows that a basic voter education campaign is needed when adopting a new election system. Additionally, the result contradicts many other post-election surveys following real RCV elections, asking opinions from voters who had just participated in a RCV election, that showed a great deal of satisfaction with RCV (see details on that in Studies 22-25 in our paper, as well as the four studies cited in the review for Study 28). Share Other studies on “satisfaction” and “understanding” make similar mistakes, in terms of basing their surveys on inadequate explanation to respondents and lack of education about context. How could any survey ever hope to measure accurately, in essence simulate a real-world election, without actual campaigning candidates, the media writing about those candidates, organizations endorsing candidates and voters being inundated with crucial information? More than anything, what these “studies” based on surveys show is that if you ask voters about something they don’t know very much about, and fail to adequately educate them, their responses will unsurprisingly reflect their confusion. Equally puzzling is that New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group, headed by political scientist Lee Drutman, found this to be a credible enough study that they not only published it but highlighted it in Drutman’s own discussion of research related to ranked choice voting. This pattern was repeated in study after study featured by New America’s Electoral Reform Research Group. For example in Ranked-Choice Voting and Political Expression: Voter Guides Narrow the Gap between Informed and Uninformed Citizens by Cheryl Boudreau, Jonathan Colner, and Scott MacKenzie, the researchers based their analysis on a survey which found that respondents who were asked to vote in a simulated RCV election, with minimal explanation of RCV or how it works, displayed less evidence of being informed about how to use RCV effectively, with the least informed voters ranking fewer candidates. As pointed out under the study above, in a real election voters are informed by a wide variety of methods, including public education by the election administration, by interested political groups, the media, and the candidates themselves who benefit from voters being aware of how to vote in the new system. In Support for Ranked-Choice Voting across Race and Partisanship by Joseph Anthony, David C. Kimball, Jack Santucci and Jamil Scott, the researchers used respondents from different parties and races voting in simulated plurality and RCV elections, who indicated their satisfaction with each voting method. Instead of using real world election results, the authors fell back on the easy, armchair and less reliable academic research methodology of making up mock elections. As with the other studies, little explanation was given of how RCV works or what its implications might be (electing majority winners or eliminating spoilers, for example). Unsurprisingly, this study found that respondents were not very satisfied with RCV. However, when the authors added an explanation that RCV has a tendency to elect more women and people of color, they found that this greater explanation increased the preference for RCV. The more voters were familiar with it, and the more they understood potential positive impacts – surprise! -- the more they were open to switching away from the status quo. Of note, the results from this study are thoroughly contradicted by a number of other studies whose data was obtained from real RCV elections with real voters. Those studies show a great deal of satisfaction with RCV. More “fake election” research An interesting wrinkle on this “research by fake elections” approach, which only served to illustrate how unreliable such “research” can become, was taken in Ranked-Choice Voting, Runoff, and Democracy: Insights from Maine and Other U.S. States by Joseph Cerrone and Cynthia McClintock_,_ also web-hosted and funded by New America’s ERRG. It gets high marks for creativity, but an eye-roll for thinking this could possibly add anything meaningful to our understanding of real world RCV elections. This study tried to determine whether RCV, plurality or two-round runoff elections provided greater voter satisfaction and acceptance of election results. To determine that, the authors conducted a survey asking if voters were satisfied with a fictional newspaper report of an election, with three different versions given to respondents – plurality, runoff and RCV, with variations of Republican/Democrat winners and variations of “come-from-behind” winners,” i.e. candidates not initially in first place but who win the “runoff.” Again, a minimal explanation of RCV or how it works was given, and the survey showed that respondents had the greatest unfamiliarity with RCV than the other methods. The unsurprising result? Respondents were much more satisfied with “come-from-behind” victories in a traditional two-round runoff election than in RCV, even though RCV is also a runoff system but with a single round of counting. Interestingly, the dissatisfaction with RCV disappeared for those who were more familiar with RCV. In fact, among those respondents who were “very familiar” with RCV, they were equally satisfied with RCV, runoff and plurality. Surprise, surprise. Again, what this study revealed, more than anything, is not only the inadequacy of the explanation for RCV given by the authors of this study, but the failure of the research format itself, thinking that such an artificial mock election could somehow simulate what actually happens in the real world in a real RCV election. Those four studies reviewed above are fitting examples of inadequate and shaky political “science.” Other studies reviewed in our paper from the New America/Electoral Reform Research Group cohort which also used mock elections included: Ranked-Choice Voting is an Acquired Taste by Joseph Anthony and David C. Kimball. New America. (Anthony et al., 2021). Ranked-Choice Voting is No Refuge for Extreme Candidates by Melissa Baker. New America. (Baker, 2021). Also included in this New America cohort is Does Ranked-Choice Voting Reduce Racial Polarization? by Yuki Atsusaka and Theodore Landsman, which actually did use real-world election results data but applied an odd and unconventional methodology to the data which relied on shaky assumptions and non-real-world scenarios that were too divorced from reality. To determine levels of “racially polarized voting,” the researchers imagined “ethnic parties,” by which they mean political parties for each ethnic group, which was especially odd since the election data they were using came from nonpartisan RCV races. But then they made an even odder assumption, namely that since race and ethnic characteristics of studied voters were not available, the authors tried to infer that information based on who voters selected and the racial make-up of voters in each district. This amounted to little more than vague and ambiguous guesswork dressed up with a bunch of mathematical equations used to give it a veneer of scientific appearance. Indeed, it seemed to assume racial polarization in order to prove racial polarization. Based on this questionable methodology, the authors concluded that RCV doesn’t reduce racial polarization. But the premise of this study missed an obvious reality: since RCV incentivizes more candidates to run and can result in more diverse fields of candidates, one would expect more racially-polarized voting in voters’ top rankings, not less, because more voters would have someone on that ballot who represents their racial or ethnic identity and more freedom to vote for their real first choice. By encouraging more diverse candidates and eliminating the spoiler effect, RCV facilitates voting for a favorite candidate of your own race and then selecting a second choice with the best likelihood of winning. The real measure is what voters do with their additional rankings – do they consider other candidates and vote “for the best of the rest”? This study didn’t tell us anything useful about that. But readily available data shows this is common in real RCV elections, and candidates act on this knowledge by engaging with voters outside their racial group. So the authors of this study failed to consider or account for what actually happens in real-world elections, and their conclusions are tainted by this failure. New America has contributed a great deal over the past 2.5 decades to our understanding of many policy areas, including politics and political reform (full disclosure: Steven Hill, one of the authors of this article and of the “Shaky Political Science” research paper and series, is a former senior fellow and former director of New America’s political reform program, 2005-2010). So it was especially disappointing that New America funded and published such a large batch of dubious studies about ranked choice voting. The stated praiseworthy goal of its Electoral Reform Research Group was to inspire new academic research about ranked choice voting that would shed light and help the public better understand the impacts of RCV. Instead, the ERRG research did just the opposite. It produced dubious research that created more confusion and misinformation. In so doing, New America’s political reform program contributed to “shaky political science.” Steven Hill and Paul Haughey Share Upgrade to $5 subscription Thanks for reading DemocracySOS, a reader-supported digital portal for the pro-democracy movement. Subscribe for only $5 per month to receive full benefits and to support our work. Subscribe
Opinion | The University of Minnesota’s vision for health care is flawed
"Based on our years of experience with the U and its health sciences, we would argue that moving the clinical practice of the university’s medical school back inside the university is a bad idea," the authors write.
The latest Huawei folding phone kind of previews the iPhone Ultra
Coincidence or not, the latest Android folding smartphones mirror the form factor we’re expecting from the iPhone Ultra (now believed...
Huawei beats Samsung and Apple to market with the first wide foldable
You snooze, you lose.
Hubble dazzles with young stars in Trifid Nebula for 36th anniversary
The NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope looked at a scene it first captured in 1997 in honour of 36th anniversary: a small portion of a star-forming region about 5000 light-years away in the constellation Sagittarius, known as the Trifid Nebula. The image shows changes over incredibly short timescales and instills a sense of awe and wonder about our ever-changing Universe.
Opinion | This is why health insurance isn't working
High deductibles and flawed incentives are pushing prices higher while leaving patients less protected.
Boosting the berry business
Blueberry growers recover from the blues and strawberries have their saviors after a blistery—by Florida standards—winter. Add other growing challenges and Southwest Florida’s berry businesses need a boost. Still, it’s peak season for blueberries in the area and residents can enjoy the healthy treat as the crop losses mostly affect commercial buyers, local growers said.
UFC veteran breaks down Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
In what's turned into one of the bigger grudge matches in recent years, middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev and former titleholder Sean Strickland headline the UFC 328 fight card on May 9th. The undefeated Chimaev and Strickland used to train together but their relationship deteriorated into ...
Game #22: A’s vs. White Sox Game Thread
It’s fun to see a walk off but let’s not forget that the A’s were not only outmatched on Friday by the score of 9-2, but they also began their first trips to the plate yesterday down 5-0. Yes, they clawed back into it but this is the Chicago White Sox we’re talking about. That […]
Huawei Pura X Max: Pre-launch hands-on images show iPhone and Samsung how it's done
Newly leaked hands-on images of the Huawei Pura X Max have surfaced online hours before the official April 20 launch, offering the first real-world look at the world’s first "wide foldable". The live photos confirm a disruptive 16:10 aspect ratio and a premium textured design, effectively beating Samsung and Apple to the market with this new form factor. While the hardware showcases Huawei's innovation leadership, the device will launch without Google Play Services, running HarmonyOS instead.
Huawei Pura X Max live images leaked ahead of April 20 launch
Huawei has already showcased the official look of the Pura X Max foldable via teasers, but if you have been waiting for a real-life appearance, then the live images of this device are out. Some key specs of the wide folding phone have also been tagged along. A Weibo tipster has shared the live images […]
Business: Rewarding Year-rounders, Chatham Business Offers Incentives For Residents, Businesses
Even though the shoulder seasons have become busier in recent years, Lower Cape businesses can still struggle to remain open year-round. Lindsay...
UFC Winnipeg weigh-in results: All fighters on point
The fighters competing on Saturday's UFC Winnipeg fight card officially weighed in on Friday at the host hotel. All fighters officially weighed weight for the contests. The event is. headlined by a welterweight bout between former title challenger Gilbert Burns and Canadian Mike Malott. Both men ...
Zohran Mamdani reflects on his first 100 days as NYC mayor, and what else is left to do
Through his first 100 days as mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani has focused on “pothole politics” — a blend of high-level legislative wins and intense focus on everyday essential services that keep the city running. The 34-year-old mayor has delivered on progressive campaign promises, from more funding for child care to new taxes on the ultrawealthy. He views his government as a model for how Democrats can deliver on policies that benefit the working class.In this episode of NPR’s Newsmakers, Mamdani sits down with host Leila Fadel at City Hall to discuss his first 100 days in office, his approach to working with President Trump and the message he believes Democrats should deliver during this year’s midterm elections.NPR's Newsmakers is where you'll find NPR's biggest interviews. We post new episodes as soon as they're available -- any day of the week. Follow or watch the show wherever you get podcasts.Newsmakers relies on supporters who value independent journalism and a free press. Join NPR+ today to support our work and get perks from the podcasts you trust. Go to plus.npr.org.
Ronda Rousey reveals minimum fighter pay in MVP
Fighter pay in mixed marital arts has been a hot button topic for years. While it has increased, it's still not where a lot of people would like, including former UFC women's bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey. Obviously, the biggest stars garner the biggest paydays, but the debuting fighter's ...
Ronda Rousey steals the show with fiery Kayla Harrison rant
Ronda Rousey was at her very best during her time in the spotlight at the Palladium Times Square in New York, transforming the MVP MMA press conference into a war declaration on Kayla Harrison and the UFC. Despite being away from the octagon for almost a decade, Rousey remains atop the biggest ...
A crushed fossil revealed a dinosaur that shouldn’t have existed
A badly mangled dinosaur skull, once forgotten in a drawer, turned out to be a rare and important discovery. Reconstructed by a Virginia Tech student, it revealed a new species of early carnivorous dinosaur with unusual features never seen before. The fossil suggests some dinosaur groups were wiped out during the end-Triassic extinction, not just their rivals. It may represent one of the last survivors of an ancient dinosaur lineage.
24,000 Years After Being Frozen In The Siberian Permafrost, This Ancient Creature Woke Up And Began To Reproduce
Scientists thawed the ancient sample from the Alazeya River in northeastern Siberia, and to their surprise, the creature woke up.
Ocean scientists need to learn a lesson from NASA
My social media this week was full of space. When Artemis I splashed down, the world watched in awe. When the James Webb Space Telescope unrolled its golden mirrors, it felt like a win for humanity…
U.S. wholesale prices surged 4% last month during the Iran war
The surge in prices complicates the work of the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve, who have faced intense pressure from President Donald Trump to lower their benchmark interest rate. But some Fed policymakers are inclined to raise rates instead, as higher energy costs increase the inflation threat.
Paulo Costa and Josh Hokit trade shots on social media
UFC 327 last Saturday was heavyweight Josh Hokit's coming out party. He garnered attention with his media antics leading up to the event and then put on a performance that won't soon be forgotten. Unranked Hokit faced No. 5 ranked Curtis Blaydes in a main card matchup and was part of what some are ...
UFC White House adds historic $1 million fighter bonus
If the stakes at the UFC White House weren't already high enough, fighters will now get the chance to collect a $1 million bonus when the event rolls around on June 14. Upon the announcement of the event, there was excitement in the air with many predicting who they believed would feature on the ...
Huawei kicks off the wide foldable trend with Pura X Max ahead of iPhone, more
Huawei has shown off its next foldable, the Pura X Max, which has a super wide form factor we’re expecting...
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
The foldable redesign we've been waiting to see from Samsung and Apple is already here
HUAWEI just beat Samsung and Apple to the wide fold party with the Pura X Max.
UFC adds former title challenger to the White House card
Despite arguably being one of the best six-fight lineups in the company's history, the UFC White House card suffered backlash from fans for not living up to the lofty expectations placed on its shoulders. To combat the noise, Dana White decided to add more firepower to the June 14 event. The ...
Scottish Association for Marine Science: Unlocking red seaweed for food flavor, color & hybrid proteins
Inside Tinder HQ, from a Lego station to roof-deck espresso
Tinder's West Hollywood headquarters has seaweed snacks, protein bars, and beer on tap. For those with a sweet tooth, there's full-size candy bars.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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