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Results for " authority " 998 found 🔀 AI-powered Shuffle

Google's Pixel Watch 5 finally breaks cover in new leaked renders

First leaked Pixel Watch 5 renders reveal Google's upcoming smartwatch in four distinct colors ahead of the August launch.

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Jul 14 • 8:12 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Chrome on Android is getting a navigation bar redesign to make room for Gemini

Chrome on Android is getting a redesigned navigation bar with a dedicated Gemini shortcut, plus desktop-like multi-tab context.

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Jul 14 • 5:49 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
I use NotebookLM every day, and these are my 5 favorite tips and tricks

I've been using NotebookLM for a long time. Here are some features and tips that genuinely save me time and make my work easier.

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Jul 14 • 5:00 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Samsung teases Galaxy Watch 9 and Ultra 2 with AI health upgrades ahead of Unpacked

Samsung has teased new AI features and upgrades for the Galaxy Watch 9 series and Galaxy Watch Ultra 2 ahead of their July 22 debut.

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Jul 14 • 2:01 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
More deleted Pixel 11 Amazon listings reveal full US pricing and specs

Now deleted Amazon.com listings for the Pixel 11 lineup have revealed almost everything about the phones, including the US pricing and specs.

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Jul 14 • 12:16 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Pixel 11 leak puts Google's rumored new color lineup on display

Pixel 11 leaks reveal new colors, giving us the clearest preview yet before Google's August 12 launch event.

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Jul 13 • 11:53 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
New malware for Android can empty your bank accounts in secret

Researchers have uncovered an updated RedHook malware that can gain shell privileges by tricking users into giving accessibility permissions.

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Jul 13 • 8:46 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Samsung will kill your health data if you don't consent to AI training

Samsung is reportedly holding your health data hostage if you don't let the company train its AI with your data.

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Jul 13 • 2:50 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Pixel 11 Pro Fold leak shows off Google's classy Pine color and a sleeker camera design

The Pixel 11 Pro Fold has leaked again, this time in Google's new "Pine" colorway, matching previously outed renders.

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Jul 12 • 10:16 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Microsoft may make big changes to bring Android and Windows 11 closer together

Microsoft is reportedly working on several major changes to improve and expand upon Phone Link, deepening Android integration.

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Jul 12 • 1:45 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
How Trump Failed to Secure the Strait of Hormuz in His Iran Deal

President Trump signed an agreement that Iran said gave it control of the waterway — and global energy supplies. Now, Iran’s military is violently asserting authority.

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Jul 12 • 12:43 PM EDT • Politics • nytimes.com
I couldn't have been more wrong about the Fitbit Air — here's what changed my mind

I expected the Fitbit Air to confirm everything I liked about WHOOP. Instead, after three weeks of testing, it completely changed my mind.

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Jul 12 • 6:00 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
I wish someone told me about these 5 Android Auto settings before I bought my new car

I just bought my first car with Android Auto. And so far it's been great — especially after I learned about these 5 settings.

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Jul 11 • 6:30 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Pixel 11 Pro Fold FCC listing adds support for a big Tensor G6 shake-up

Today's Pixel 11 Pro Fold FCC document dump appears to support rumors of Google moving to a MediaTek modem.

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Jul 10 • 5:39 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Latest Galaxy Z Fold 8 leak offers your clearest look yet at Samsung's new foldables

More renders of Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Galaxy Z Flip 8 have leaked, giving us a better look at the upcoming foldables.

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Jul 10 • 5:28 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
What Supreme Court ruling means for transgender athletes in Wisconsin

The Supreme Court ruled that state governments have the authority to ban transgender athletes from female sports.

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Jul 10 • 4:47 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumnews1.com
Trump ousts election commission members

It comes after a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that gave the president new personnel authority to fire members of independent agency boards

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Jul 10 • 10:43 AM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
FCC Approves Reflect Orbital's Space Mirror Satellite That Astronomers Hate

The FCC says the most controversial aspect of Reflect Orbital's Earendil-1 satellite, its giant mirror, falls outside its authority since the regulator mainly focuses on radio spectrum.

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Jul 10 • 9:46 AM EDT • Technology • uk.pcmag.com
Worried about status bar clutter with Android Halo? Google may let you clean it up

Google is working on new Android status bar settings to let users hide the upcoming Android Halo icon and the mute indicator.

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Jul 10 • 9:16 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Google Photos' latest UI experiment has one job: getting CapCut on your phone

Google seems to be testing a subtle UI change in Google Photos that promotes ByteDance's CapCut video editing app.

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Jul 10 • 8:49 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
6 hidden Samsung dial codes that unlock secret features on your Galaxy phone

Every Samsung phone has secret cheat codes, and it's a shame that more people don't know about them. Type these and see what happens.

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Jul 10 • 6:30 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
I finally got the $499 Trump Phone. It's the worst Android phone I've used in 2026

The $500 Trump Mobile T1 is here, and after a year of waiting, I finally got my very own. And guess what? It's a complete mess.

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Jul 10 • 5:30 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
FCC Approves Reflect Orbital's Space Mirror Satellite That Astronomers Hate

The FCC says the most controversial aspect of Reflect Orbital's Earendil-1 satellite, the giant mirror, falls out of its authority since the regulator mainly focuses on radio spectrum.

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Jul 9 • 7:15 PM EDT • Technology • pcmag.com
Google Messages is trying out a common-sense sharing menu change

Google Messages appears to be testing a smarter sharing flow that finally adds a proper group option for multiple recipients.

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Jul 9 • 5:30 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
CMS Approach to Work Reporting Requirement Won’t Work for People with Substance Use Disorders or Mental Health Conditions

By Deborah Steinberg, Senior Health Policy Attorney, Legal Action Center A few weeks ago, CCF explained how the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a new interim final rule with comment period (IFR) that went far beyond its authority to implement the new work reporting requirements. H.R. 1 – the budget reconciliation law […]

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Jul 9 • 8:42 AM EDT • Health • ccf.georgetown.edu
OHSU awarded $6.5 million to improve rural health

Six projects are among $97.1 million distributed by the Oregon Health Authority this week.

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Jul 9 • 8:00 AM EDT • Health • news.ohsu.edu
Google Chrome finally brings an iOS-only feature to Android with new update

A new update for Google Chrome is rolling out to Android devices. It adds a dedicated back button and a new site controls option to Chrome.

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Jul 9 • 7:36 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Google Play Store will look a little different the next time you open it

Google appears to be widely rolling out a few new UI changes for the Play Store, affecting the Games and Apps tabs.

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Jul 8 • 3:01 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Google Photos is finally getting its bottom bar redesign on Android

The row of navigation controls at the bottom of Google Photos has been updated to be a bit more compact and consistent.

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Jul 8 • 1:54 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Fold 8 Ultra renders spoil Samsung's big reveal

Leaked Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Fold 8 Ultra renders reveal Samsung's next foldables ahead of launch, including new colors and expected specs.

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Jul 8 • 12:37 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Tired of low-quality, no-name brands on Amazon? This open-source tool hides them

Knockoff is a new browser extension that identifies, dims, and filters product listings from junk pseudo-brands on Amazon. Check it out!

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Jul 8 • 8:43 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Watchdog calls for feds to investigate St. Louis County health director

The Holy Joe Society asserts that county health Director Dr. Kanika Cunningham has interfered in the board's operations, and is usurping the board's authority.

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Jul 8 • 7:15 AM EDT • Health • stltoday.com
Google's new Play terms reveal something most Android users never know

Ahead of its July 29 rollout, Google is giving users a preview of its updated Play Terms of Service that make several changes.

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Jul 8 • 2:00 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Oregon Health Authority Irks Residential Treatment Centers

In recent years, Oregon health officials, desperate to get people with severe mental illness and addiction into scarce residential treatment, have been throwing their weight around.

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Jul 7 • 9:48 PM EDT • Health • wweek.com
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Google's July 2026 update is here for your Pixel phone

Learn what to expect in Google's July 2026 Pixel updates for Pixel 6 and later devices, including the Pixel Tablet.

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Jul 7 • 3:12 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
New iPhone 18 Pro Max battery details leak, and Samsung should be very worried

Apple may finally be matching Android's battery playbook, with the iPhone 18 Pro Max tipped for its biggest battery yet.

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Jul 7 • 4:08 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
First look: Google Translate is finally prepping the modern makeover it deserves

Google appears to be testing a major redesign for the Google Translate app on Android, complete with a modern home screen layout.

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Jul 6 • 11:30 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Greater Wheeling Sports and Entertainment Authority examines operational costs

WHEELING — The Greater Wheeling Sports and Entertainment Authority board is looking to pump the brakes on growing operational expenses. Members of the GWSEA board met recently for their last meeting until the end of August, as the board traditionally does not hold a regular monthly meeting at the end of July. Officials discussed operating […]

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Jul 6 • 8:00 PM EDT • Entertainment • timesleaderonline.com
Leak suggests Samsung's upcoming Galaxy S27 Pro faces a serious hardware identity crisis

The Galaxy S27 Pro could be a non-S Pen alternative to the S27 Ultra, but a regional Exynos-Snapdragon chip split threatens that promise.

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Jul 6 • 8:15 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
These 5 Android apps are so good, I'm surprised they're free

Free Android apps almost always have some catch. These don't — no paywalls, no subscriptions, not even ads.

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Jul 6 • 6:30 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
OnePlus is reportedly dodging EU warranty claims with useless vouchers, and owners aren't happy

EU OnePlus owners say the company won't honor warranties after clearing out stock, handing out vouchers that aren't worth anything.

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Jul 6 • 6:16 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
There's one group of Android users Google's new sideloading rules won't affect

LineageOS says Google's new developer verification system for sideloading apps on Android will not affect devices running its custom ROM.

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Jul 6 • 12:17 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Two new food benefits available to Oregon Health Plan members with complex health needs

The Oregon Health Authority has launched new nutrition benefits for Oregon Health Plan members with chronic conditions to help improve food security.

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Jul 5 • 10:58 AM EDT • Health • klcc.org
I tried a hidden Android Auto feature Google doesn't want you to know about

Google limits what Android Auto can do, but you can sideload apps to unlock YouTube, screen mirroring, and more. Here's how it works.

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Jul 5 • 7:00 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Funds open for communities on Tour of Britain route

York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority is making cash available to help celebrate the event.

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Jul 5 • 4:59 AM EDT • Sports • sports.yahoo.com
Resigning Oregon Health Director Will Get No Severance Payout, State Says

Dr. Sejal Hathi is not set to receive any severance payout connected to her Aug. 1 resignation as leader of the Oregon Health Authority, state officials said Friday.

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Jul 3 • 7:42 PM EDT • Health • wweek.com
New Pentagon office will oversee majority of drones

From small one-way attack drones to drone boats and ground robots, the new office will have vast authority over the future of uncrewed programs.

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Jul 3 • 2:21 PM EDT • Business • businessinsider.com
Google Maps may soon expand beyond restaurant suggestions to actually placing your order

Ask Maps is getting ready to expand from just recommending restaurants to actually placing orders for you.

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Jul 3 • 12:39 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Galaxy Z Fold 8, Fold 8 Ultra, and Flip 8 prices just leaked, and your wallet won't be happy

A new leak reveals alleged European prices for the Galaxy Z Fold 8, Fold 8 Ultra, Flip 8, Watch 9, and Watch Ultra 2 ahead of July 22 event.

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Jul 3 • 10:14 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Deaths surged 29% in France during week of record heat, health agency says

Deaths surged in France during the hottest week of a record heat wave last month, the country’s public health authority said Friday.

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Jul 3 • 9:18 AM EDT • Health • wbaltv.com
The end of an era: New report points to the death of OnePlus' Oxygen OS

A new report claims OPPO will discontinue Oxygen OS and realme UI on future OnePlus and realme devices globally, in favor of Color OS.

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Jul 3 • 8:20 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Heat wave in France saw 2,000 more deaths, says public health authority

France experienced a surge in deaths during the hottest week of a record heat wave last month. Public Health France said it recorded at least 2,000 more deaths than the previous week.

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Jul 3 • 8:07 AM EDT • Health • apnews.com
High-Signal Publisher
If you still own one of these 6 popular Android phones, it's probably time to upgrade

Holding onto an old Android phone from Samsung, Google, or Motorola? It might be time to finally give in and upgrade.

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Jul 3 • 6:30 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Oregon merges psychedelic mushroom, medical marijuana regulators, proposes fee hike

The Oregon Health Authority is making administrative and personnel changes to its psychedelic mushroom and marijuana services, citing “budget shortfalls.”

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Jul 2 • 8:12 PM EDT • Health • oregonlive.com
Oregon Health Authority director Sejal Hathi announces resignation

Hathi’s departure is a surprise and comes as OHA is preparing to cut $421 million from medicaid after years of expanding the program.

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Jul 2 • 3:22 PM EDT • Health • opb.org
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Galaxy S27 Pro and Ultra leak hints at a big shake-up for the selfie camera

Samsung has kept the same front camera for the Galaxy S series since the S23. But a new leak suggests a change is coming.

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Jul 2 • 2:37 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Oregon’s top public health official resigns

Oregon’s top public health official is stepping down from her role after two and a half years. Dr. Sejal Hathi, who joined the Oregon Health Authority in January 2024, will leave Aug. 1 to focus on family and personal priorities, the governor’s office announced Thursday. Hathi, who earns $265,488 per year, joined the Oregon Health […]

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Jul 2 • 2:35 PM EDT • Health • oregoncapitalchronicle.com
Oregon Health Authority Director is Stepping Down

Dr. Sejal Hathi will leave after less than three years on the job.

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Jul 2 • 1:17 PM EDT • Health • wweek.com
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Oregon Health Authority director resigns after turbulent tenure at agency

Fariborz Pakseresht, former director of the state's human services agency, will step in as interim director beginning July 6.

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Jul 2 • 1:06 PM EDT • Health • oregonlive.com
Oregon Health Authority director Dr. Sejal Hathi resigns

Oregon Health Authority director Dr. Sejal Hathi resigned from her position leading one of the state's largest agencies, effective Aug. 1.

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Jul 2 • 12:42 PM EDT • Health • statesmanjournal.com
Opinion | When Scholarly Societies Play at Politics

They are meant to cement scholarly authority. Sometimes, they threaten it instead.

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Jul 2 • 12:11 PM EDT • Politics • chronicle.com
Android 17 QPR1 hits Platform Stability with today's Beta 6 release

Google has announced that Android 17 QPR1 Beta 6 is releasing today, which includes several fixes and improvements.

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Jul 1 • 5:08 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Marion County leaders blast 'unnecessary' OHA rules, demand rescission

Marion County leaders are asking the Oregon Health Authority to rescind recent rule changes they say endanger patients, staff and the community.

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Jul 1 • 4:55 PM EDT • Health • statesmanjournal.com
Marion County warns Oregon behavioral health rules put staff, residents at greater risk

KATU ABC 2 offers coverage of news, weather, sports and community events for Portland, Oregon and surrounding towns, including Beaverton, Lake Oswego, Milwaukie, Happy Valley, Gresham, Vancouver, Hillsboro, Oregon City, Tualatin, West Linn, Woodburn, Tigard, Tualatin and Garden Home.

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Jul 1 • 4:18 PM EDT • Health • katu.com
Android 17's new lock screen trick could frustrate anyone trying to break into your phone

Google has detailed how Android 17 implements tougher lock screen security by drastically reducing PIN guess attempts and more.

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Jul 1 • 12:00 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Oklahoma Health Care Authority board approves balanced budget despite funding gaps

Budget cuts and modifications are leaving the state Medicaid agency with "razor-thin margins" as it enters the 2027 fiscal year.

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Jun 30 • 10:55 AM EDT • Health • kosu.org
Oregon Health Authority agrees to $630,000 settlement with ousted equity director

The sum includes more than $400,000 in back pay that the director would have received if she had remained at the agency until this year.

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Jun 30 • 9:00 AM EDT • Health • oregonlive.com
Google's chatty Keep Live and Gmail Live interfaces make first appearance

Google's 'Live' conversational AI is now showing up in Keep and Gmail, letting you chat with your notes and emails directly.

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Jun 30 • 6:07 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Google Play Store is getting faster everywhere, from your Android phone to your car's dashboard

Google Play Store is becoming faster across phones, tablets, TV, Wear OS, and Android Auto, and receiving a bunch of new Store features.

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Jun 30 • 4:17 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Samsung hints the Galaxy Ring 2 could do something no Galaxy wearable has done before

A senior Samsung executive has revealed that the next-generation Galaxy Ring will bring a promising compatibility upgrade.

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Jun 30 • 2:57 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Apple's biggest leak in years shows the iPhone 18 Pro surviving a drop test

A massive iPhone 18 Pro leak includes photos and videos of Apple's upcoming flagship undergoing internal durability testing.

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Jun 30 • 12:58 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
John Roberts fought for decades to get rid of the 1935 precedent that had limited a president’s firing authority

For more than 40 years, since his service as a young Reagan administration lawyer, Chief Justice John Roberts has pressed for an exceptionally powerful US president, one who could fire the heads of independent agencies at any time.

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Jun 29 • 6:53 PM EDT • Politics • cnn.com
NM U.S. Rep. Vasquez, a Democrat, urges state Health Care Authority to bring down SNAP error rate

U.S. Rep. Vasquez (D-N.M.) sent a letter Friday chiding NM leaders for errors administering the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.

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Jun 29 • 1:57 PM EDT • Health • sourcenm.com
Supreme Court: Trump may fire heads of independent agencies, but not the Federal Reserve

The court's conservatives said the president had the authority to remove all officials who wield executive authority, even if the agency officials had fixed terms set by law.

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Jun 29 • 1:18 PM EDT • Politics • latimes.com
Expanding pharmacists’ authority is about healthcare

Alaska’s passage of House Bill 195 marks a practical and overdue step toward improving access to healthcare, especially in a state where geography alone can turn a minor illness into

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Jun 29 • 9:45 AM EDT • Politics • newsminer.com
After trying a Google TV projector, I may never buy another TV ever again

After spending a few weeks with a Google TV projector, I think I may be done buying actual TVs for good. Here's what changed.

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Jun 28 • 6:30 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
The Presidential Prayer Team

Each day, we invite you to join us in prayer for our national leaders. As mandated by 1 Timothy 2:1-2, we encourage prayer for those in positions of authority.

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Jun 28 • 6:00 AM EDT • Health • presidentialprayerteam.org
ICE mask ban takes effect in N.Y. amid dueling lawsuits and a race for governor

The Trump administration’s lawsuit argues that states do not have the authority to regulate the federal government’s operations.

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Jun 26 • 8:46 PM EDT • Politics • spectrumlocalnews.com
3 flagship Android phones are cheaper now than they were on day one of Prime Day, but not for long

Prime Day is nearly over, but these three flagship Android phone deals have actually improved since the sale started.

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Jun 26 • 6:20 PM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Earthquake shifts political ground for Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodriguez

Venezuela's strongest earthquake in over a century is the biggest challenge to Delcy Rodriguez's leadership but could also allow the interim president to stamp ​her authority on a fractured government.

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Jun 26 • 8:03 AM EDT • Politics • reuters.com
Fitbit Air's first update is already rolling out, and it could finally fix its biggest annoyance

Google has started rolling out the Fitbit Air's first firmware update since launch. This update promises bug fixes and improvements.

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Jun 26 • 3:16 AM EDT • Technology • androidauthority.com
Making Our Own Luck

We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.

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Jun 25 • 4:48 PM EDT • Science • goodscience.substack.com
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The Presidential Prayer Team

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