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Sony Xperia 1 VIII: Launch details of Sony's new flagship phone surface in the wild
A new leak has now revealed some more information on what to expect from Sony's upcoming flagship smartphone. The Xperia 1 VIII will succeed last year's Xperia VII and could be scheduled to debut on the global market shortly.
OKC Thunder's 2026 NBA playoffs Round 1 schedule revealed
Oklahoma City Thunder's 2026 NBA playoffs Round 1 schedule revealed.
Is your dog’s DNA hiding a wild secret?
Discover what your dog's DNA reveals about humans’ best friend.
Ocean eddies are amplifying climate extremes in coastal seas, study finds
New research reveals a powerful yet overlooked driver of climate change: Intensifying ocean eddies.
Graphene just defied a fundamental law of physics
In a major breakthrough, scientists have observed electrons in graphene flowing like a nearly frictionless liquid, defying a core law of physics. This exotic quantum state not only reveals new fundamental behavior but could also unlock powerful future technologies.
2026 RBC Heritage odds, picks, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the RBC Heritage 2026 10,000 times and revealed PGA picks for Hilton Head
NVIDIA GeForce RTX 5060 and 5060 Ti Planned With 9 GB VRAM
It was recently revealed that NVIDIA plans to launch a version of the RTX 5050 GPU with 9 GB of VRAM—three 3 GB modules of GDDR7 over a 96-bit bus and 336 GB/s total memory bandwidth. Now, according to a new leak by Hakuitado on the Board Channels forum (via Gazlog), NVIDIA is planning to make the s...
New MTG Secret Lair Superdrop Reveals Tournament-Legal My Little Pony Cards
A massive new Secret Lair Superdrop, titled Back to School, just dropped, and it brings My Little Pony to black-bordered MTG!
Scientists Uncover Hidden Force Powering Yellowstone’s Supervolcano
A new geodynamic model is reshaping how scientists understand supervolcanoes, revealing that their magma systems may be far more diffuse and dynamic than previously believed.
Steelers LB Patrick Queen Reveals Odds on Aaron Rodgers’ Return
Like everyone, Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Patrick Queen is just waiting to hear if four-time NFL MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers will […] This article originally appeared on Steelers Now: Steelers LB Patrick Queen Reveals Odds on Aaron Rodgers’ Return
This Metal Melts in Your Hand – and Scientists Just Discovered Something Strange
Gallium has revealed unexpected behavior that challenges decades-old assumptions about its liquid structure.
Survey finds 95% of insured Americans worry about hospital bills
Survey reveals financial strain for many Americans due to healthcare costs, even with insurance. Unexpected medical bills can lead to debt.
Some people don’t lose weight with GLP-1s. Evidence is building that the drugs are helping anyway
The majority of people who start taking GLP-1 medicines with the hope of losing weight, the drugs can quiet cravings and help them shed stubborn pounds. But research is also continuing to reveal GLP-1 medicines’ benefits independent of weight loss — even if people gain weight.
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Rosalina and Samus have new Nintendo eShop cards, plus an eShop credit sale is live
New Rosalina and Samus Nintendo eShop cards have been revealed, and a sale is happening that can save you a bit of cash on eShop credit.
Replaced joins Game Pass with a simple list of Xbox achievements
After numerous delays, Replaced finally joins Xbox Game Pass today, and we can now reveal its secretive list of Xbox achievements.
Joey Fatone lost power to his house on Christmas because he couldn't pay the bill: 'I was asking people for money' (exclusive sneak peek)
Joey Fatone reveals in an exclusive 'Boy Band Confidential' sneak peek that the power company shut off his lights on Christmas when he was near bankruptcy. 'I had family over at my house. Good thing I had the water, but the power just went pew,' he tells EW.
2026 RBC Heritage odds, picks, field, date: Surprising PGA predictions from golf model that's nailed 17 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the RBC Heritage 2026 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Hilton Head
Scientists just recreated a rare cosmic reaction never seen before
A breakthrough experiment has shed new light on one of astrophysics’ biggest mysteries: the origin of rare proton-rich elements. For the first time, scientists directly measured a key reaction that creates selenium-74 using a rare isotope beam. The results sharpen models of how these elements form in supernova explosions, cutting uncertainty in half. But the findings also reveal gaps in current theories, hinting that the story isn’t complete yet.
Wild Animals Are Adapting to City Life in Surprising Ways, Scientists Reveal
There's a pattern to their behavior.
Mandy Moore, Nate Bargatze, more stars reveal new movies at CinemaCon
The biggest names in Hollywood are unveiling their buzzy new movies at CinemaCon 2026, the Las Vegas convention for theaters owners.
Pope Leo’s resolute response to Trump attack reveals a man of God, not politics
Pope Leo XIV does not claim to direct political outcomes. He claims the right, and the duty, to judge them.
Wazdakka Gutsmek rules revealed – Launch your own Speedwaaagh!
Lead your Warbikers to the biggest and best fights around.
NOAA Fisheries report highlights severe economic decline in Gulf shrimp fishery
NOAA Fisheries reveals a sharp and ongoing economic decline in the U.S. Gulf shrimp fishery, underscoring growing challenges for one of the nation’s historically important seafood industries.
Scientists finally know where the Colorado River’s missing water is going
For years, water managers have been puzzled as the Colorado River kept delivering less water than expected—even when snowpack levels looked promising. New research reveals the missing piece: spring rain, or rather, the lack of it. Warmer, drier springs mean plants are soaking up more snowmelt before it can reach rivers, fueled by sunny skies that boost growth and evaporation. In fact, this shift explains nearly 70% of the shortfall, tying the mystery directly to the long-running Millennium drought.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
JD Vance had a vision for the world. Trump is wrecking it.
The vice president’s disastrous week reveals that he’s in a trap of his own making.
Cubs vs. Phillies prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB picks for Monday, April 13 from advanced model
SportsLine's model reveals its Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies best bets and MLB picks today
Business continues ‘pay it forward pizza’ program
A local business is still continuing its pizza giveaway program to help those in need.
Microsoft reveals major price increases for all Surface PCs as RAM crisis continues: Flagships now $500 more expensive than at launch
Microsoft is raising prices on all its current Surface PC offerings, with the midrange devices now starting at above $1,000, and flagships starting at $1,500.
'My 600-Lb. Life' Star Dolly Martinez’s Cause of Death Revealed
The former reality star died at age 30 following years of weight-related health problems.
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals early onset Parkinson’s diagnosis
The announcement comes just one month before the band is set to reunite for a residency at The Sphere in Las Vegas beginning May 6.
4A Games announces Metro 2039, and we're getting an Xbox-themed reveal stream later this week
Developer 4A Games and publisher Deep Silver have announced Metro 2039, the fourth entry in the post-apocalyptic FPS series. A full reveal is coming this week.
NASA Night-light Imagery Tracks US Energy Transition, Global Volatility
New nighttime maps based on NASA satellite imagery are upending assumptions, revealing a world where artificial brightening and dimming have intensified over
"You think we're stupid?" - Players react to Pokémon and Palworld lookalike Pickmon being renamed to "better align with our brand identity and lore"
After a divisive reveal in March, the developers behind the Pokémon and Palworld lookalike Pickmon are renaming the game, but players aren't convinced.
Longtime WDIV sports reporter Jamie Edmonds reveals breast cancer diagnosis
Longtime WDIV sports reporter Jamie Edmonds revealed Monday morning that she has been diagnosed with breast cancer.
Men and women with obesity face very different hidden health risks
New research reveals that obesity affects men and women in surprisingly different ways. Men are more likely to develop harmful abdominal fat and signs of liver stress, while women show higher inflammation and cholesterol levels. These differences could help explain why health risks vary between sexes. Scientists say this could lead to more tailored treatments for obesity.
Rory McIlroy reveals what 2026 Masters victory taught him
Rory McIlroy waited so long for his first Masters. That taught him something. Now, he's a repeat winner.
Why Your Cat Keeps Walking Away From Their Bowl (And What Science Says to Do About It)
New science reveals why cats lose interest in food and how a simple scent change can bring them back to the bowl.
New disclosures reveal how DOGE actually worked
Depositions offer insight into what Elon Musk’s group was up to. Members describe a club-like atmosphere in which they slashed agencies with little oversight.
Entertainment Is Now the Engine of Brand Growth, Small World Reports
Little Black Book, Produced with Tracksuit, the 'Entertain or Die 3.0' report reveals that entertainment-first brands are driving stronger revenue growth and consumer preference in 2025
Schwalbe Reveals New Romy Tire, UltraSoft Compound & Radial Tacky Chan
New tread patterns and new rubber compound options.
Iowa State Fair hints at expanded entertainment lineup ahead of reveal
DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa State Fair is not just another summer tradition this year. It is shaping up to feel bigger, louder, and more unpredictable as it ties into the nationwide America 2…
Iowa State Fair hints at expanded entertainment lineup ahead of reveal
DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa State Fair is not just another summer tradition this year. It is shaping up to feel bigger, louder, and more unpredictable as it ties into the nationwide America 250 celebr...
8.8-inch OLED, Snapdragon 8 Gen 5: High-end compact tablet gets official launch date
Compact tablet enthusiasts have likely been awaiting more details regarding the Oppo Pad Mini tablet. As revealed by the company, the 8.8-inch OLED tablet powered by the Snapdragon 8 Gen 5 SoC is set to see the light of day later this month.
Scientists were wrong about lifespan. Your genes matter way more than we thought
For years, scientists believed our lifespan was mostly shaped by environment and chance, with genetics playing only a minor role. But a new study from the Weizmann Institute flips that idea on its head, revealing that genes may actually account for about half of the differences in how long people live. By analyzing massive twin datasets—including twins raised apart—and using innovative simulations to filter out deaths from accidents and other external causes, researchers uncovered a hidden genetic influence that had been masked for decades.
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals early-onset Parkinson's disease diagnosis
No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals that he's been diagnosed with Parkinson's, one month before the band is set to reunite for their Las Vegas residency at the Sphere.
Cowboys’ 30-visit list reveals potential draft plan
What has the Cowboys list of 30 visits told you the most?
Xbox Showcase Reportedly Coming Next Week, Metro 2039 May Be Revealed
NateTheHate provides an update on when players can expect the next Xbox Games Showcase. Supposedly, it's coming next week
Oppo officially reveals Find X9 Ultra days before global launch
The Oppo Find X9 Ultra is an upcoming flagship smartphone set to launch globally on April 21. The company's official Weibo account has revealed the device's design ahead of launch, showcasing it in three color options.
The transformative power of sports with Telemundo and FC Dallas
Players aged 5 – 12 took part in soccer clinics w/ FC Dallas coaches, giveaways & more!
'Tarkov in Space' Revealed as Fragmentary Order, a Sci-Fi 'Combat Simulator'
Rant Gaming has unveiled Fragmentary Order, a new first-person shooter that many have dubbed Escape from Tarkov in space.
Ryan Day reveals Ohio State's extreme recruiting standards
During a recent podcast experience, Ryan Day raised eyebrows when he said the Buckeyes are only looking for future first and second-round draft picks.
Apple iPhone Fold: Release Date Leaked And Striking Design Revealed In Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
UNC basketball under Michael Malone: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TarHeel247, the 247Sports affiliate of the North Carolina Tar Heels, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Duke basketball under Jon Scheyer: Insiders reveal transfer portal news, 2026 recruits, roster, best targets
TheDevilsDen, the 247Sports affiliate of the Duke Blue Devils, shares its latest college basketball transfer portal news
Braves vs. Guardians prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Sunday Night Baseball from advanced model
SportsLine's model reveals Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians picks, MLB best bets for Sunday Night Baseball
Mississippi reveals its full history for America's anniversary year, a contrast to federal efforts
America’s history is being seen through different lenses as the country celebrates its 250th anniversary | WBBM Newsradio 780 AM & 105.9 FM
Why Ozempic doesn’t work for everyone: Scientists just found a hidden reason
A new study reveals that popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy may not work as effectively for about 10% of people due to specific genetic variants. These individuals appear to have a puzzling condition called “GLP-1 resistance,” where their bodies produce higher levels of the hormone targeted by these drugs—but don’t respond to it properly.
Neandertals may have hunted and eaten outsiders, chilling cannibalism study finds
A cave in Belgium has revealed unsettling evidence that Neandertals selectively cannibalized outsiders, focusing on women and children. The victims weren’t from the local group and appear to have been treated like prey, with bones butchered for meat and marrow. This suggests the behavior wasn’t ritual, but practical—or possibly linked to intergroup conflict. The discovery paints a darker, more complex picture of Neandertal life during their final millennia.
Scientists Unveil Microscopy Breakthrough That Reveals “Invisible” Molecular States
Scientists have introduced a microscopy technique that reveals a hidden layer of chemistry involving molecules that normally evade detection.
"Botany of Nations" on View at The Academy of Natural Sciences Through February 14, 2027
To mark America's 250th birthday, The Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University has an exhibition rich with artifacts and plant specimens from the Lewis and Clark expeditions
The Screen Time Maximalists Who Spend an Ungodly Amount of Time on Their Phones
As debates over social media addiction rage, people with extreme screen times tell WIRED they have no plans to cut back.
How to keep your brain sharp and avoid overreliance on AI
A Workday report revealed that nearly half of workers are concerned about AI agents eroding their critical thinking skills.
Scientists Finally Crack the 100-Million-Year Evolutionary Mystery of Squid and Cuttlefish
Genomic analysis reveals squid and cuttlefish evolved in deep oceans, survived mass extinction in refuges, and later rapidly diversified, following a “long fuse” evolutionary pattern.
2026 Masters odds: Surprising PGA picks, predictions into Round 4 by golf model that nailed 16 majors
Mike McClure's model has simulated the final round of the Masters 10,000 times and revealed golf picks for Augusta National
Legendary basketball coach, broadcaster Dick Vitale reveals health status
The basketball world has come together to support one of its most legendary figures. Former NCAA and NBA coach and current broadcaster Dick Vitale has faced challenges larger than basketball. Recent reports revealed that Vitale has been dealing with numerous…
How aggressive breast cancer turns off the immune system
Researchers are launching a new project to crack the mystery of aggressive breast cancer, where predicting disease progression remains a major hurdle. By studying how tumors interact with and suppress the immune system, scientists aim to identify new biomarkers that reveal how the cancer evolves. Using real patient samples, the team hopes to turn earlier discoveries into practical clinical tools. The goal: more precise, personalized treatments that can outsmart even the most dangerous tumors.
110,000-year-old discovery rewrites human history: Neanderthals and Homo sapiens worked together
The first-ever published research on Tinshemet Cave reveals that Neanderthals and Homo sapiens in the mid-Middle Paleolithic Levant not only coexisted but actively interacted, sharing technology, lifestyles, and burial customs. These interactions fostered cultural exchange, social complexity, and behavioral innovations, such as formal burial practices and the symbolic use of ochre for decoration. The findings suggest that human connections, rather than isolation, were key drivers of technological and cultural advancements, highlighting the Levant as a crucial crossroads in early human history.
Hidden weak spots in HIV and Ebola revealed with breakthrough nanodisc technology
A new nanodisc-based platform lets scientists study viral proteins in a form that closely mimics real viruses, revealing how antibodies truly recognize them. This approach uncovered hidden interactions in viruses like HIV and Ebola that traditional methods missed. By recreating the virus’s membrane environment, researchers can better understand how immune defenses work. The technique could speed up the development of more effective vaccines.
Department 56 Reveals Disneyland Haunted Mansion Figure
Department 56, known for their miniature holiday village figures, has announced a new Disneyland-inspired Haunted Mansion figure.
Packers trade WR Dontayvion Wicks to Eagles for draft picks
Coaching search shows UNC Basketball still an elite job
The extraordinary events around the search Hubert Davis’ replacement reveal just how unique the UNC job is.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov odds, prediction: Picks for April 11 fight from proven boxing expert
Expert Josh Nagel reveals his boxing best bets for the April 11 Tyson Fury vs Arslanbek Makhmudov bout
Apple iPhone Fold Design And Size Revealed In First Leaked Photos
What will the first folding iPhone look like? How big will it be compared to the current models? The first images claiming to be dummy units have just leaked.
“Who's the Boss?” star reveals he's delivering for Amazon: 'There's no shame in staying in motion'
Danny Pintauro portrayed Jonathan Bower on the ABC sitcom that aired between 1984 and 1992.
'Who's the Boss?' star reveals he's delivering for Amazon: 'There's no shame in staying in motion'
'Who's the Boss' star Danny Pintaturo reveals that he's delivering for Amazon because the entertainment business has been so slow.
Teddi Mellencamp reveals she's dating an older man who’s been 'pretty good' amid her ongoing cancer battle
Teddi Mellencamp reveals she's dating an older man who has been 'pretty good' amid her ongoing cancer battle.
Trump administration unveils renderings of its proposed gold-accented arch
Designs for a towering, gold-accented triumphal arch near Arlington National Cemetery were revealed by the White House on Friday – providing more insight into the latest iteration of President Donald Trump’s desire to mold the physical footprint of Washington, DC, into his own vision.
Will LeBron James play vs Suns? Lakers reveal injury report
Los Angeles Lakers superstar forward LeBron James will be available on Friday in their 81st contest of the season vs the Phoenix Suns.
HSU tops list for producing small business owners
A new study reveals Hardin-Simmons University in Abilene ranks first in producing small business owners in the U.S.
Cenkusha Launches C1: An AI-Enabled Business Management System that Reveals How Value Flows in Organizations
Cenkusha is a technology company that provides the organizational nervous system and structural backbone that modern enterprises need to operate intelligently in an increasingly complex world.
Professor Layton and the New World of Steam gets a release window and adds PS5 and PC versions
Professor Layton and the New World of Steam is coming later in 2026, and will now also hit PC and PS5. Plus, new features have been revealed.
Record ODA Cuts: Top Donors Slash Aid As Global Health Risks Grow
Preliminary data from the OECD reveals historic ODA cuts, setting international aid back a decade. Civil society groups warn that the reductions will devastate funding for global health, education and social protection.
NBA player prop picks, odds, predictions, free best bets: Model includes Deni Avdija on Friday, April 10
The SportsLine model has simulated every NBA game 10,000 times and revealed its best player prop bets
Parental Depression: How Does Timing Impact Mental Health in Adult Offspring?
Research from Yale Child Study Center reveals how the timing of maternal and paternal depression affects adult mental health outcomes in the next generation.
Swashbuckling co-op survivor Windrose sets sail into early access next week, which means it's time to battle Blackbeard and a big flower
Pirate survival game Windrose releases in early access next week, its devs have revealed with a new trailer.
Galaxy Z Flip 8 renders leak for the first time, revealing its design
The renders of the Galaxy Z Flip 8 have been leaked for the first time, giving us our first look at its design.
Ancient Korean society practiced human sacrifice and high inbreeding, researchers find
A genomic analysis of dozens of ancient Korean skeletons revealed a special "sacrificial caste" of people.
Oppo Find X9 Ultra full specifications, images emerge via premature listing
The Oppo Find X9 Ultra is expected to go official on April 21 across multiple markets, including China. Ahead of the launch, the device briefly appeared on China Telecom’s database. While the listing has now been removed, it revealed several key specifications and design details, as seen in screenshots circulating online. Oppo Find X9 Ultra […]
Amazon’s chip business could be worth $50 billion, Jassy says, and he hints it may sell them externally
Andy Jassy's 2026 shareholder letter reveals Amazon's Graviton, Trainium, and Nitro chips generate $20bn+ a year — and could be sold directly to third parties.
What one campaign rally in Michigan reveals about young voters right now
Attendees didn't fit neatly into any ideological box.
Chimpanzees in Uganda are locked in a deadly 'civil war' after their group split apart — and scientists don't know why
The first well-observed "civil war" in wild chimpanzees reveals that shifting social ties alone can fracture a group, igniting deadly conflict between former friends.
Science Under the Ice Reveals Antarctica’s Hidden Ocean Life
Scientists dive beneath Antarctic ice to study unique marine life and track the impact of climate change on fragile ecosystems.
Castlevania headlines a big list of exciting indie game reveals
There was a lot of indie game news.
Amazon Just Revealed This 1 Business Is Worth More Than 82% of Fortune 500 Companies (Hint: Not Cloud Computing)
While AWS generates the bulk of Amazon's profits, this business is growing even faster.
‘New standard for women’s sports’: Indiana Fever give sneak peek of $78M practice facility
INDIANAPOLIS – The Indiana Fever revealed a first look at their innovative new practice facility. New renderings of the $78 million Indiana Fever Sports Performance Center showcase a 108,000-square…