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Kristaps Porzingis remains with Warriors on two-year deal
The Golden State Warriors have reached an agreement to retain former NBA champion Kristaps Porzingis.
Ravens’ young core is already showing signs of growth
The Ravens have a new head coach, new coordinators, and a new direction, but much of what has made the franchise successful remains firmly in place.
Browns QB Shedeur Sanders Gets Bad News on Future
The Cleveland Browns’ quarterback competition remains open heading into training camp, but the momentum appears to be favoring Deshaun Watson, not Shedeur Sanders. The post Browns QB Shedeur Sanders Gets Bad News on Future appeared first on HEAVY.
Ex-Foursquare Founder Takes On The $5 Trillion Small Business Exit Crisis
Iconic is using AI to help Main Street business owners sell smarter as $5 trillion in small business value prepares to change hands over the next decade.
Henry Winkler says 'there's a string between' him and his 'Happy Days' costar Ron Howard
Winkler and Howard costarred on the '70s sitcom, and they've remained close in the decades since.
Kristen Hogan joins Essentia Health-32nd Avenue Clinic to practice nephrology
The Essentia Health-32nd Avenue Clinic is excited to welcome Kristen Hogan, an advanced practice registered nurse and certified nurse practitioner in nephrology.
Honeywell completes spin-off into three companies. Just one remains in Charlotte.
The three businesses separately focus on advanced materials, automation and aerospace.
Why did Scott Patterson leave 'Sullivan's Crossing'? Inside the conflicting stories of his exit
When Harry Sullivan left the Crossing at the end of season 3, he promised to return, but Scott Patterson remains absent in 'Sullivan's Crossing' season 4. Here's what we know.
Betsy Fischer Martin Will Lead Harvard’s Institute of Politics
The Emmy-winning journalist was a mainstay of political coverage at NBC for two decades.
Supreme Court rules MSU economist Lisa Cook can remain as Fed governor
The Trump administration sought to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook amid a push to get the U.S. independent central bank to lower interest rates.
Alachua police investigate suspicious package near business
Alachua County Sheriff’s Office bomb squad requested to assist.
The Six Biggest Questions About ‘GTA VI’
We’ve learned a lot about the most anticipated video game of all time. But much of Rockstar’s blockbuster sequel to ‘Grand Theft Auto V’ remains a mystery.
Resident Evil Veronica Finally Gives Claire Redfield Her Due – the Horror Series’ Most Ignored Character Deserves the Spotlight
Despite being in plenty of spin-offs and crossovers, Claire Redfield is in barely any of the mainline Resident Evil games. After a long time away, RE Veronica is finally set to give Claire her due.
AI is changing expectations for MBA graduates
While MBA job prospects are expected to remain stable in the near future, new hires will be held to higher standards inside rapidly evolving workplaces.
4 Sectors Attracting Seed Funding in Digital Entertainment
Digital entertainment is navigating a paradox. Overall venture capital flowing into gaming dropped sharply through 2025 and into 2026, yet seed-stage deal activity has remained surprisingly resilient across a handful of focused verticals
Bleacher Report Names Ideal Stefon Diggs Landing Spot
The New England Patriots released Stefon Diggs earlier this offseason, and he remains unsigned.
Video Millions lose health insurance
Millions of Americans have lost Affordable Care Act health insurance this year as many faced double- or triple-digit increases in their premium payments.
Liverpool transfer news: Bradley Barcola among alternative targets with PSG in talks to sign Yan Diomande
Liverpool target Yan Diomande has indicated his desire to join Paris Saint-Germain; PSG winger Bradley Barcola features highly among options Reds are considering as an alternative; Barcolas PSG future is uncertain due to frustrations about being overlooked for selection in big games
Building Business: New hotel taking shape on Portland's Monument Square
Zachau Construction is transforming the former Fidelity Trust building into a 101-room luxury hotel, for Jim Brady’s Fathom Cos.
Platner Has Slight Edge Over Collins in Tight Maine Senate Race, Poll Finds
The Maine race, which both parties see as key to winning control of the Senate, is extremely close as the sprint to fall begins, a Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll found.
Al-Diriyah join race for Soule who remains unconvinced
Matias Soulé’s future seems far from Rome. Regardless of what happens by tomorrow, the Argentine winger is expected to leave the capital, as the Giallorossi have clear ideas about who will play in ...
Learn Science with Dr. V: Is air weightless?
Air is a mixture of gases, mainly nitrogen and oxygen, along with small amounts of other gases such as carbon dioxide, argon, and water vapor.
Jose Mourinho eyes Chelsea mainstay as his ‘priority’ signing
Former Real Madrid manager Xabi Alonso has taken over the reins as Chelsea’s new coach and is already planning the squad and his dynamics for the upcoming season.The revolutionary thinker that he is...
Reports: Diomande agrees PSG move from Leipzig
Ivory Coast forward Yan Diomande has decided to leave RB Leipzig for Paris Saint-Germain, according to media reports. Broadcasters Sky and RMC, as well as transfer specialist Fabrizio Romano, reported on Sunday that the 19-year-old has agreed a five-year contract with the French Champions League winners.
Lux and Samira announced for 2XKO
After the finals for 2XKO at Evo 2026 today, the developers decided to treat us to something special — namely a full reveal of the remaining characters for the game's first season.It was shown that Lux, the Lady of ...
3 Michigan Hockey players selected during 2026 NHL Draft
Michigan Hockey maintained its pipeline to the pros with 3 Wolverines hearing their names called during the 2026 NHL Draft, including a first-rounder by the Detroit Red Wings:
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
How did EBS science show reach Netflix's top 10?
For years, South Korea’s public Educational Broadcasting System has struggled to rival the massive budgets of global streaming originals and star-driven mainstr
What science tells us about the algae bloom in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool
Algal blooms are not maintenance failures requiring paint or treatment with hydrogen peroxide and nanobubbles. They are ecological warning signs.
Only one workout helped older adults lose fat without losing muscle
A six-month study of more than 120 adults in their 70s found that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) may offer a key advantage over other forms of exercise: it helped reduce body fat while preserving valuable muscle mass. While moderate and low-intensity workouts also led to some fat loss, only HIIT maintained lean muscle, which becomes increasingly important with age.
Only one workout helped older adults lose fat without losing muscle
A six-month study of more than 120 adults in their 70s found that high-intensity interval training (HIIT) may offer a key advantage over other forms of exercise: it helped reduce body fat while preserving valuable muscle mass. While moderate and low-intensity workouts also led to some fat loss, only HIIT maintained lean muscle, which becomes increasingly important with age.
Maine targets three initiatives for initial use of federal rural health funds
The Mills administration says it's decided how it will spend nearly half of the $190 million it's received this year through the federal Rural Health Transformation Fund.
Texas Mental Health Program Reveals 103% Increase in Veteran Enrollment
Emory University treatment is expanding throughout the state at no cost, but many veterans remain unaware of their services.
Tariffs continue to add uncertainty to business climate: Top Workplaces 2026
Companies like Gardiner HVAC in Solon are navigating fluctuating prices and supply chain disruptions as tariff policy remains volatile more than a year after implementation.
New business brings hat bar experience to Mineral County
Haley Nelson started her business in November 2023 in Lake Havasu City, Arizona. Since moving to Montana, she has remained busy fulfilling online custom orders and shipping hats to customers across the country.
US Oilfield Business Activity Strengthens, Though Oil Price Uncertainty Remains
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ second-quarter energy survey reports improved business conditions, despite a mixed outlook on oil prices and input costs.
Back in business: Blue and White Snack Bar owners vow to uphold tradition of Hollidaysburg mainstay
HOLLIDAYSBURG — A local Hollidaysburg landmark is back as Blue and White Snack Bar, 905 Union St., reopened for business May 12. “The Blue and White is a landmark in Hollidaysburg and really all of Blair County. To say that people are excited to see it open again is an understatement,” Mayor Chad Repko said. […]
Morgan Stanley Raises PT on International Business Machines (IBM) Stock
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) is one of the Best Cloud Computing Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. On June 23, Morgan Stanley lifted its price objective on the company’s stock to $267 from $225, and maintained an “Equal Weight” rating on the shares. As per the analyst, Dell and HPE earnings demonstrate that the enterprise server demand […]
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) A Bargain Following Its Sharp Pullback?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the stock down about 9% over the past month and about 11% over the past 3 months, which has sharpened the focus on its current valuation. See our latest analysis for Tencent Music Entertainment Group. At a recent share price of $8.39, Tencent Music Entertainment Group has posted a year to date share price decline of about 53% and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of about 55%. However, the 3...
Fiorentina agreement for Beltran, but striker resists River Plate
Fiorentina have agreed to sell half of Lucas Beltran to River Plate following the loan at Valencia, but it’s reported the player wants to remain in Europe.The striker spent time in the River Plate a...
Scientists finally explain why these wild boars stay more radioactive than Chernobyl's wolves - Futura-Sciences
What explains this surprising finding? The answer appears to be a complex mix of history, ecology, and diet. Bavaria’s wild boars mainly feed on underground fungi that absorbed radioactive fallout from both the notorious Chernobyl disaster and Cold War-era nuclear testing. Unlike wolves, which sit higher on the food chain...
Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Expands In Maine Online Gaming, Is The Stock Already Fully Valued?
Caesars Entertainment expands digital footprint with Wabanaki Nations partnership Caesars Entertainment (CZR) is extending its partnership with three Wabanaki Nations to include online casino gaming in Maine, targeting a potential 2026 iGaming launch, subject to regulatory approvals. See our latest analysis for Caesars Entertainment. Caesars Entertainment shares have climbed over recent months, with a 90 day share price return of 16.79% and year to date gain of 28.14%. However, the 5 year...
Eat, Sip, Shop: New businesses bring unique products, services to Bethlehem’s Main Street
Whether you’re shopping for toys, games and puzzles or jewelry, home decor and pet treats and accessories, a variety of new retailers on downtown Bethlehem’s Main Street have you covered.
Yellowstone’s supervolcano may be fueled by something unexpected
Scientists have uncovered a new explanation for what powers Yellowstone and other supervolcanoes. Instead of a deep plume rising from near Earth’s core, a broad “mantle wind” may push hot rock beneath Yellowstone, generating magma closer to the surface. This process helps create a massive underground magma network and may explain how supervolcanoes remain active for long periods.
Pro-Israel influencers criticize Vance, but evangelicals remain open to him
Despite attacks from some conservatives, a heavily pro-Israel crowd still has warm words for Vance, with many saying they could pick him as the party’s nominee.
Hopewell's James Armstrong is the first sophomore to win Post-Gazette Athlete of the Year
James Armstrong is a teenager who doesn’t do well with downtime. Armstrong has a summer job as a maintenance worker at schools in the Ambridge Area...
🗞 Today’s back pages: Baena downs Uruguay, the Dembélé show...
Spain’s victory over Uruguay dominates the sports newspaper headlines, but let’s take a look at how the main newspapers around the world are covering it.MARCAASMundo DeportivoSPORTL'EquipeSuperdep...
Trump refuses to sign housing bill, says GOP remains ‘well-unified’
But-For Causation and the Essential Business Hurdle: Analyzing the Summary Judgment in RAAM Construction
RAAM Construction Inc v. United States of America, Case No. 2:25-cv-04681-SPG-AJR, 2026 WL 18391 (C.D. Cal. June 23, 2026). The Employee Retention Credit (ERC) codified under Internal Revenue Code Section 3134 remains a significant source of controversy, audits, and high-stakes federal litigation.
This Week's 10 Must-Read Stories on Women in Politics: Title IX Anniversary, AI's Anti-Women Bias and Ranked-Choice Voting Victories
Weekend Reading on Women’s Representation is a weekly compilation of stories about women’s representation in politics, on boards, in sports and entertainment, in judicial offices and in the private sector in the U.S. and around the world—with a little gardening and goodwill mixed in for refreshment! Published every Friday. —This week marked the 54th anniversary of Title IX. —As the Taliban approaches the five-year mark of its return to power this August, a rare protest in western Afghanistan last week laid bare both the brutality of its rule and the resilience of those living under it. —A woman will replace Eric Swalwell in California … but for not two more months. —A study of 133 AI systems found that 44 percent demonstrated gender bias, and more than a quarter showed both gender and racial bias. ... and more.
Registration open for 2026 Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference | Health and Human Services North Dakota
Registration is now open for the sixth annual Behavioral Health & Children and Family Services Conference, scheduled for Sept. 14-17 at the Bismarck Event Center and online through a livestream option.The main conference will take place Sept. 15-17, with optional pre- and post-conference sessions offered Sept. 14 and Sept. 17.More than 1,400 in-person attendees and hundreds of virtual participants are expected to take part in keynote presentations, breakout sessions and networking opportunities focused on behavioral health, child welfare, suicide prevention and youth development.
MSU Vet Tech program awarded $150k NIFA-USDA grant
Morehead State University's nationally ranked veterinary technology program was recently awarded significant financial support to help it maintain its place as the #1 program of its kind in Kentucky. The National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA), part of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), awarded MSU's vet tech program a $150,000 NIFA-USDA grant for equipment to support small and large veterinary technology education and workforce competency at MSU. Learn more about veterinary technology programs at MSU by emailing Staton at a.staton@moreheadstate.edu or calling 606-783-2328. Find out more about MSU's veterinary technology program by calling 606-783-2662.
An Unexpected Vocation: Jaibir Nihal Singh’s Journey from Film Student to Business Executive
Though trained as a filmmaker at Pepperdine University’s Seaver College, Jaibir Nihal Singh found a way to leverage his creative skills into a career as a successful innovator. Now, as a member of Forbes 30 under 30, Singh credits his education as the launchpad for his vocation, even if he never saw it coming.
From Linchpin to Lever — Part 1: Measuring Trust in Public Health
Learn how local health departments can measure public trust using existing public health tools to strengthen relationships and improve community health outcomes.
Pacquiao and Mayweather rematch postponed indefinitely
The rematch between boxing greats Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather has been postponed indefinitely because of a host of reasons, with contract disputes the main factor.
Small Business Central to American Prosperity Celebration
House Small Business Committee celebrates small businesses as key to American prosperity ahead of nation's 250th anniversary. Learn why Main Street matters.
How PENN’s US$360 Million Aurora Resort Shift At PENN Entertainment (PENN) Has Changed Its Investment Story
PENN Entertainment has opened the US$360 million Hollywood Casino and Hotel Aurora, replacing its former Fox River riverboat with a 388,500-square-foot, 24/7 land-based resort featuring over 1,000 slots, 50 table games, a sportsbook, 226-room hotel, spa, event center, and extensive dining options. The Aurora project, which created around 700 permanent roles and mirrors PENN’s broader shift into higher-amenity land-based properties, highlights how the company is reinvesting heavily to refresh...
Remigration: a growing far-right movement
Once a fringe position, calls for mass deportation are spreading throughout Europe and entering mainstream politics
Is AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Undervalued Or Is Its Recent Rally Already Priced In?
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is under renewed scrutiny as investors weigh its recent share price swings and ongoing losses against reported revenue of $5,031.8 million and a market value of about $1.5 billion. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. At a share price of $1.89, AMC Entertainment Holdings has seen sharp swings, with a 7 day share price return down 33.22% but a 90 day share price return up 99.33%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 37.42%, indicating...
Business Owners Agree: The Road to Downtown Recovery Runs Through Facts, Not Nostalgia
State Street's commercial vacancy rate is lower today than it was before the pandemic. The highest vacancy rates remain on blocks that are open to vehicle traffic.
Cutting costs to move forward: SoFi State of Small business 2026 survey
SoFi reports 86% of small business owners see growth or stability, yet 66% cite high costs, mainly inflation and interest rates, as major challenges.
Cutting costs to move forward: SoFi State of Small business 2026 survey
SoFi reports 86% of small business owners see growth or stability, yet 66% cite high costs, mainly inflation and interest rates, as major challenges.
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Should “Success” in Science Be Measured Differently?
Publication volumes are one of the main ways that success is measured for researchers today. From mentorship to real-world impact, scientists argue that “publish or perish” pressures overlook many of the contributions that drive discovery forward.
Remembering Victory Stadium: How Roanoke’s lost landmark changed sports and civil rights
It’s been 20 years since Victory Stadium was demolished, but the memories and legacy remain alive in Roanoke.
Nevada Global Business travels to Tokyo
Students explore Japan’s economy, culture and business practices through company visits and immersive learning in the Nevada Global Business program.
EVA HENRY: Corruption resurfaces in Adams, Arapahoe County politics linked to One Main Street
Corporate dark money groups are funneling millions into eleven different races statewide.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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Some governments are now worried that with AI being integrated into labs, Donald Trump now has his finger hovering over an off switch for European science. “Having restrictions on this tool, it can have an impact on our own research,” said France’s research minister, Philippe Baptiste, at the VivaTech conference in Paris on June 18.Baptiste, himself a former academic, said that colleagues in mathematics had recently warned him they were now cut off from leading-edge US models, risking their work. “This model is not available anymore now because of the US restriction, and for the first time this had an impact on mathematics,” a field where large language models (LLMs) are making a significant contribution, said Baptiste. So, should European scientists avoid relying on US models in the future? Or would this be a self-harming overreaction? And how is AI being used in science, anyway? What happened?On June 12, it emerged that Washington, citing cybersecurity concerns, had ordered Anthropic to stop non-US citizens using two models: Claude Mythos 5, and Claude Fable 5, a version of Mythos but with guardrails to prevent abuse. Anthropic said Washington’s concerns were overblown. But forced to follow the order, yet with no way to check who was using the models, the company suddenly shut down access for everyone, US citizens included. There’s still no agreement on how to restore broad access. But last week, Bloomberg reported that select US companies, and the US government, still had access to Mythos despite the ban, but the EU’s cybersecurity agency Enisa had been shut out. Class division of researchersIn the longer term, access outside the US should be restored, said Marcel Salathé, co-director of the AI centre at the Federal Polytechnic School of Lausanne (EPFL), because a permanent restriction would be financially ruinous to US AI firms. “Even Trump will eventually budge to economic pressure,” he said.However, US AI firms might end up operating rather like banks, doing due diligence on users of their leading-edge AI models, he went on.European scientists are unlikely to fall foul of such checks, he said. But having a Chinese postgraduate in their lab, or doing a type of research the US disapproved of, could potentially result in access being denied. “It will create a sort of class division of researchers,” he said. More than frontier modelsHowever, successfully deploying AI in science is about far more than just having access to leading LLMs such as Mythos.Instead, many science-specific tools, most famously Alphafold, which predicts protein folding structures, require “far less” computing power to train than frontier models, well within the capabilities of European supercomputers, according to a recent analysis by the Arq Foundation, a Brussel-based AI think tank. Instead, tools such as Alphafold are possible because certain fields, like protein folding, weather prediction or astronomy, have large, clean, standardised datasets that can be used to train predictive models. Rather than compute, “data is the central constraint for AI for science,” the report says. For example, a less powerful physics model trained on CERN’s data “will be more valuable than the best model without certain data,” said Bengüsu Özcan, author of the report. European advantage?Europe could therefore steal a march by using its scientific data and infrastructure to create models US digital giants cannot. “They might actually match or go even beyond what these big [US] companies are doing,” said Özcan.Indeed, some European start-ups hope to create automated testing labs to create the kind of standardised data that could speed up the discovery of new materials. Materials scientists say there’s currently too little data to train models. AI scientistsHowever, even if the bottleneck for AI in science is often data, rather than compute, being at the mercy of the US for LLM access could still become a problem for European scientists. A new class of “AI scientists” based on leading LLMs is also emerging, Özcan’s report says.Unlike domain-specific tools like Alphafold, these try to automate day-to-day scientific work, by providing an overarching tool that coordinates specific models to synthesise existing literature, generate hypotheses or run analysis of data. The problem for Europe, however, is that these tools are sometimes based on US leading models. Google Deepmind’s AI Co-Scientist, for example, is built on Google’s Gemini LLM. Systematic failureThese scientific automation tools are still in their early stages, and still exhibit “systematic failures on scientific tasks,” Özcan’s report says. One of the problems is that the messy, day-to-day process of scientific discovery is largely not documented, meaning LLMs don’t have a good source of data to learn how scientists actually work. Meanwhile, some tasks, such as literature synthesis, don’t typically require access to leading edge models.However, the performance of AI scientific assistants could improve as companies such as Google pour resources into developing them. Rely on US“Unfortunately, for scientific assistants, there is not much we can do right now except rely on US frontier AI,” said Antoine Bosselut, a natural language processing expert based at EPFL. Chinese-built open models, which can run on local computers, lessening the risk of a shutdown, are touted as one alternative to US dependence. There’s also Mistral, once seen as Europe’s main AI hope, but the Paris-based company has seen its recent models fall behind in performance. But the Chinese alternatives are generally not as capable as US frontier AI models, said Bosselut, unless paired with fiddly, custom tools that allows them to act as independent agents. “Most scientists do not have the time,” he said. Don’t jump ship yetAlthough the kill switch moment is seen a warning shot for European scientists, it doesn’t mean labs should abandon US AI tools immediately. “I do not think the right response is simply to abandon US-based models and systems under the banner of sovereignty or independence,” said Mattias Björnmalm, secretary general of the Cesaer university association. “That would be an overreaction.”Related articlesEuropean sovereignty in AI requires ‘ugly trade-offs,’ say experts Robotic lab start-up makes case for €500M EU-funded materials testing facilityAI in science: is it useful? Instead, European researchers need to ask themselves whether they’re becoming dependent on technology that could be turned off in Washington, said Özcan. “They might not see this today, but they should really start asking this question,” she said. European researchers need a plan B, said Salathé. “I would recommend to every researcher, very proactively explore alternatives.”Own toolsIn addition, Björnmalm and others want European research institutions to develop their own scientific AI tools.Instead of signing AI deals with US digital giants, European universities should be using this money to create their own models, which may end up being superior for research, said Sabine Leonelli, an expert on the use of AI in science at the Technical University of Munich. “Universities in Europe seem to be happy to sign commercial contracts with US companies on the assumption [their AI tools] are better,” she said. But US frontier LLMs are typically opaque, and have been developed without independent scientific input, she said. “This is not good enough for science.”Last year, Swiss researchers released Apertus, an LLM designed to be completely transparent, from its development methods to its training data. The idea is that this makes scientific tools built on top of the model far more reproducible than with closed, commercial alternatives.“Europe needs more of this: serious capacity-building that gives researchers, universities and companies credible options,” said Björnmalm.
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