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Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Breaking down every team's closer situation at the halfway point
Grant Taylor, Alex Lange and Yoendrys Gomez headline the latest bullpen report
TIDAL cracks down on AI music by cutting off monetization
TIDAL's new policy will prevent AI-generated music from making money on its service.
Red-Pilling Speculation | Los Angeles Review of Books
From Ayn Rand to QAnon, a new anthology explores how reactionary world-building becomes reactionary world-making.
Supreme Court to review the legality of mass voter purges in the weeks before an election
The Supreme Court will review the legality of mass voters purges in the final weeks before an election, as part of a larger case the justices are taking up examining the methods Arizona uses to keep non-citizens off the voter rolls.
Comcast cuts NBCUniversal loose. Netflix and Apple may want a look.
Comcast spent 25 years arguing that media and broadband belonged together. Now it's breaking them apart.
Former NFL star Chris Johnson makes heartbreaking health announcement
The NFL is filled with gridiron legends who sacrifice their bodies every Sunday in pursuit of a Super Bowl championship. But even the game’s greatest stars aren’t invincible. On Monday, former Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson revealed that he…
Titans Legend Chris Johnson Reveals Heartbreaking ALS Diagnosis
Former Tennessee Titans star and NFL great Chris Johnson shared his diagnosis publicly for the first time, hoping his story will inspire awareness, research, and hope for others battling ALS.
Texas Democrats leave convention united in effort to end GOP’s 30-year hold on state politics
Texas Democrats spent their 3-day convention in Corpus Christi rallying party activists, training volunteers and making the case for Democratic policies and candidates across the state ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
DMC Sinai-Grace holds 2nd annual health fair with free screenings, food, entertainment
DMC Sinai-Grace Hospital is taking patient care beyond the hospital walls and into the heart of the Detroit community.
DMC Sinai-Grace holds 2nd annual health fair with free screenings, food, entertainment
DMC Sinai-Grace Hospital is taking patient care beyond the hospital walls and into the heart of the Detroit community.
FAIR Health Price-Informed Tools Support Healthcare Decisions Among Diverse Older Adults
/PRNewswire/ -- Price-informed shared decision-making tools developed by FAIR Health, a national, independent nonprofit, can facilitate meaningful healthcare...
Genesis Celebrates Science Behind Baking
(Southeastern IN) – Genesis: Pathways to Success is celebrating the successful conclusion of Science Behind Baking Camp, an engaging A Summer of STREAM experience that combined nutrition education, teamwork, and hands-on baking. Throughout the camp, […]
Comcast says it will spin off NBCUniversal
Comcast’s media businesses, including NBC, Peacock and Universal, are moving one step closer to a sale.
Building Business: New hotel taking shape on Portland's Monument Square
Zachau Construction is transforming the former Fidelity Trust building into a 101-room luxury hotel, for Jim Brady’s Fathom Cos.
Projected World Cup round of 16 matchups, live bracket
With the round of 32 underway, the 2026 World Cup round of 16 bracket is taking shape with teams advancing through the knockout round.
Patriotic movies to stream to celebrate America's 250th birthday
Patriotism on screen comes in all different forms. It's politicians, athletes, soldiers, pilots, journalists — people from all walks of life, coming together in ordinary and extraordinary ways and making
Breaking: T-Mobile To Force Migrate Over 8 Million Customers To More Expensive Plans
Bad news for loyal long-time customers of T-Mobile: prices are about to go up by quite a lot.
A tale of two World Cup experiences: As Boston reaps economic benefits, Foxboro suffers
With the World Cup taking place in their backyard, Foxboro-area restaurateurs say they have been left in the dark and are not reaping the benefits from the economic boom seen in Boston.
This Baker’s Business Is Booming (and It’s Not Just Because of the Cannon Fire)
Justin Cherry’s breads are in demand this semiquincentennial, as is his knowledge of historical baking methods.
People are taking allergy and heartburn pills for PMS. Could it work?
Can the mix really help with premenstrual woes? Theoretically, the link between histamine and hormones could explain why the trendy DIY treatment seems to help some women.
Morris rides into orange and purple western town with unfinished business
In the '“Wild West” phase of college football, returning offensive coordinator Chad Morris is making a new mark at Clemson.
Framingham Baking Co. workers 'couldn't let it go.' What they did next
Two former Framingham Baking Company kitchen workers have started their own baking business.
South Korean tech giants to build a $518 billion chipmaking hub to serve soaring AI demand
South Korean tech giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to invest a combined $518 billion in a new computer chip manufacturing hub, capitalizing on surging artificial intelligence-driven demand.
America 250: L.A. Threads its Fabric
A decade ago, fashion newcomer Ari Jogiel turned a hat-making passion project into a one-stop-shop garment factory. At his namesake full-package company,
These Michigan businesses are finding a silver lining with tariffs
Resale and salvage retailers are taking advantage of a circular, domestic supply chain as shoppers shift to bargain-hunting and buying local.
These fat-filled brain cells may be making multiple sclerosis worse
Scientists have uncovered a surprising clue that may help explain why multiple sclerosis (MS) progresses rapidly in some people but not others. In brain tissue from patients with severe MS, researchers found large numbers of “foamy” immune cells packed with fat droplets after absorbing damaged myelin. These overloaded cells appear to switch from helping repair the brain to fueling ongoing damage and inflammation.
Can the so-called nanobubbler save the Reflecting Pool?
The $1.7 million “ozone nanobubbler” being used in an effort to make the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool water crystal clear has a unique ability to shoot 500 million microscopic bubbles into every teaspoon of water. The injected oxygen is supposed to oxidize — or, unscientifically speaking, smash through — algae, bacteria and other chemicals.
Philippines leads the world in rush to solar as power prices soar
People in the Philippines are flocking to install solar power on rooftops and escape the burden of soaring electricity prices, making it the world's biggest spender on solar panels since the war in Iran started.
Being broke costs you 13 IQ points, according to science. Here's the number that changes everything.
CreditNinja reports that saving your first $10,000 unlocks financial stability, improving decision-making and reducing stress, ultimately boosting cognitive function.
Vallejo: Armed Suspect Arrested After Allegedly Making Death Threats At Business
Police have arrested a man after he allegedly brandished a gun and made death threats to customers at a business in Vallejo, police said Sunday.
Efzimfotase alfa demonstrated improvements in bone health in treatment-naïve pediatric patients with hypophosphatasia achieving median difference of 1.67 vs placebo in RGI-C Score at week 25 in MULBERRY Phase III trial
Positive results from the MULBERRY Phase III trial showed that efzimfotase alfa (ALXN1850), an investigational enzyme replacement therapy, demonstrated a statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in bone health in children (2 to
Texas Democrats leave convention united in effort to end GOP's 30-year hold on Texas
Texas Democrats spent their 3-day convention in Corpus Christi rallying party activists, training volunteers and making the case for Democratic policies and candidates across the state ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
I Put Apple CarPlay In My Wife's 2006 Toyota 4Runner And I'm Never Looking Back
Despite its 300,000 miles we're not getting rid of the 4Runner anytime soon, so it was worth making a small investment to bring its infotainment into the 2020s.
Bills decline to honor O.J. Simpson in making the move to new stadium
Simpson died two years ago, and his reputation became forever stained by charges that he killed his former wife and her male friend in 1994.
🚨 BREAKING: Robert Lewandowski agrees multi-year deal with Chicago Fire
Major League Soccer looks set to add another iconic veteran presence to its ranks this summer, with Polish legend Robert Lewandowski reportedly primed for a move to Chicago Fire.Per The Athletic, the ...
Hornets reportedly trading Miles Bridges to Suns for Grayson Allen, Royce O'Neale, 1st-round pick
Charlotte continues its offseason overhaul after nearly making the NBA playoffs this past season.
Lyles to take charge of Ultimate Championship entertainment
Noah Lyles has been announced as an Ultimate Star for the World Athletics Ultimate Championship, taking place from September 11-13 in Budapest, Hungary.Lyles, the dominant US sprinter who has won consecutive 200m golds at the past four World Championships, is locked in to compete at the inaugural edition of the new global championship. Lyles has earned automatic qualification into both the 100m and 200m by virtue of his podium-topping performances in those disciplines at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games and the World Athletics Championships Tokyo 25, respectively.
3 Traps Health Systems Fall Into When Trying to Improve Their Culture
Cultivating a positive culture is a priority for hospital leaders, but many are making avoidable mistakes. Myra Gregorian, Seattle Children's chief people and transformation officer, outlined some of these common blunders — such as not involving frontline staff in decision making and assuming that simple communication methods are sufficient.
My son suggested the scenic route and now, he talks more in the car
My 12-year-old son suggested taking the scenic route, and now, my family has better conversations in the car. We also appreciate where we live more.
Climate change to blame for intensity of Europe heat wave: Scientists
Human-caused climate change is "unequivocally" responsible for the intensity of a record-breaking heat wave scorching Europe, scientists said Friday.
Science says these 7 parenting beliefs may be quietly making life harder for parents and children
Every parent wants to give their child the best possible upbringing. But in trying to be the “perfect parent,” many may be putting unnecessary pressure on themselves. A 2023 survey of more than 700 parents by researchers at Ohio State University found that 57% reported experiencing parental burnout. Surprisingly, the biggest predictor wasn't the number of children they had or how many hours they worked- it was the pressure to live up to an impossible standard of parenting. Child development experts say many of the beliefs parents consider signs of “good parenting” may actually be making life harder for both parents and children. Here's what science says.Here are seven common parenting beliefs that science says may be working against both parents and children.
Delaware's Most Influential and Inspiring in small business for 2026
Meet eight Delawareans making the list for Delaware Online/The News Journal's Most Influential & Inspiring in small business for 2026.
Four things to know from Neshoba County Fair political speaking
Here are some of the highlights from the political speeches at the Neshoba County Fair and developments Mississippians can expect in the coming months.
Conor Sen: This demographic cliff is reshaping universities. Cities are next
An undergraduate enrollment shortfall at Syracuse University is the latest sign that long-forecast demographic pressures are taking their toll on large and well-known institutions, too. Syracuse laid blame on the
Yankees news: Cole can cope with commonplace stuff
Cole adjusts mid-game; Grisham set to return during homestand; Henry Lalane making waves at Low-A
2026 World Cup Betting Report: 'USA Is By Far Our Worst Result In The Book'
There's no way around it: The USA making a deep run at the World Cup would be a horrendous result for sportsbooks. Patrick Everson reports.
World Cup Round of 32: Knockout rounds begin with Canada taking on South Africa
LGBTQ+ Pride parades set for Sunday in NYC and San Francisco
Pride Month celebrations are peaking with big parades in New York, San Francisco and some other cities on Sunday.
Design and Early Implementation Outcomes of a Mobile Health-Enabled Social Support Intervention for Adults Living With HIV and Type 2 Diabetes in Uganda
Background: Adults living with HIV and type 2 diabetes experience complex treatment demands that affect medication-taking, clinic attendance, privacy, social support, and engagement with care. M...
USF marine labs race to rebuild after fire
The college is taking a major step in its recovery by fast-tracking the process of purchasing lab equipment.
Oklahoma City business taking donations to help Venezuela following multiple earthquakes
Venezuelan restaurant VeneBurgers is organizing donations to provide Venezuelans with necessary items.
HISTORY IN THE MAKING: A RECORD-BREAKING OPENING DAY AT THE PAN AMERICAN ATHLETICS CHAMPIONSHIP MEDELLÍN 2026
The Pan American Athletics Championship delivered everything the Americas had been waiting […]
Rangers Go for Series Win on Saturday Against Blue Jays
The Texas Rangers will go for a series win against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre with Cal Quantrill taking the mound.
Colorado Politics Calendar June 29-July 5
CoPo’s weekly political calendar will help you find political and public-policy events throughout Colorado. It includes candidate and issue campaign events, public policy meetings, court hearings, state and local party conventions, assemblies, debates, rallies, parades, speaking engagements, traveling dignitary appearances, water meetings, book signings, county commission hearings, city council meetings and more. As a subscriber, […]
4 iconic American CEOs are making way for nuts-and-bolts leaders
Warren Buffett, Tim Cook, Bob Iger, and Doug McMillon are making way for nuts-and-bolts leaders, but success will require more than an eye for detail.
Why the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra is Breaking the Internet
Discover the leaked specs and design details of the upcoming Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Z Fold 8 Ultra ahead of their July 26 unveiling.
No debut, but loud cheers: Belfast crowd shows love for Vaibhav Sooryavanshi
Teenage sensation Vaibhav Sooryavanshi's India debut is still pending, but the focus shifted to Ireland's historic 34-run victory in the first T20I. Despite the loss, Shreyas Iyer vowed a strong comeback. Ireland's debutants impressed, with Jai Moondra and Matt Hollard making immediate impacts, while Abhishek Sharma's quickfire fifty wasn't enough for India.
The Science Behind Storms: Four ingredients that make thunderstorms
Here's Mother Nature's shopping lift to making storms form.
First Bend Block Party draws crowds to Central District
Live music, art, food and fun are taking over Bend’s Central District for the first Bend Block Party. Come down to Second Street near Open Space and check it out before 9 p.m. today!
Police seek help identifying suspect in California Avenue business break-in
The Bakersfield Police Department is asking for the community’s help in identifying a man accused of breaking into a business on California AvenuePolice said it
Schwebel Baking Company to shut down after 120 years in business
Are You Falling Into These 5 AI Traps? Here's How Smart Leaders Avoid Them.
Artificial intelligence is making founders fall into the same leadership traps. Here's how to make sure you avoid them.
Deb Haaland Outlines Small Business Agenda in Address to Albuquerque Chamber
Native Vote 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo) on Thursday outlined her vision for making New Mexico more welcoming to entrepreneurs and small businesses during an address to the Greater Albuquerque Chamber of Commerce, pledging to reduce regulatory barriers while investing in education, public safety, and economic development. Drawing on her own experience […]
Deb Haaland Outlines Small Business Agenda in Address to Albuquerque Chamber
Native Vote 2026 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deb Haaland (Laguna Pueblo) on Thursday outlined her vision for making New Mexico more welcoming to entrepreneurs and small businesses during an addre...
Sports Intelligence Project explores high-end decision making in multifaceted industry
A new co-curricular offering tasks students with combining data, AI and the human element of athletics.
Making sense of what Lars Tiffany’s lawsuit says about UVA sports
Analyzing a few points made by Tiffany’s camp and what they indicate about the UVA athletic department’s approach.
After 80 Years, Mathematicians Give Famed ‘Erdős Method’ an Upgrade
Decades ago, Paul Erdős used randomness to illuminate the vast and weird world of networks. Now mathematicians are making his technique even more powerful.
Case Studies From Ireland: Making Sustainability Good Business
From Kinisla to Strong Roots, these food companies are making the business case for sustainable practices.
Seattle ups its payout for vandalized small businesses. Is it enough?
For many businesses, the reimbursement "could be the difference between someone making their rent or not, just because this is such a tough time,” said Analog Coffee's owner.
Warren Buffett Bought A Business For $1.7B ‘Over The Phone Without Ever Meeting The People There’ Using The ‘Most Valuable Skill’ He Learned
Buying a company for $1.7 billion without meeting management sounds like the kind of decision that would keep lawyers busy for months. Warren Buffett did it over the phone. Speaking at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 2003, Berkshire Hathaway Chair...
Lincoln International CEO on why the firm went public — and what’s ahead for dealmaking
Lincoln International makes its public debut as dealmaking is poised for a resurgence, with the firm's client engagement letters up 40%.
Grand Theft Auto 6 demand may be so high it will "likely outstrip supply" this holiday season, a video game retailer warns
Speaking to The Game Business, a major senior games buyer has warned that stocks might not survive the spending frenzy this fall.
DJ and presenter Trevor Nelson taking a break from work due to health issues
The Radio 2 presenter said he was now "concentrating on getting better".
The heatwave hacks that will actually help to keep you cool
Should you wear wet socks to bed or point a fan out the window? Can the ‘Japanese door fan’ technique cool a baking hot car? Here’s what the science says
Thieves are breaking through drywall to burglarize Chicago businesses, police warn
Chicago police issued a community alert on Thursday warning that several businesses have been burglarized by thieves who broke in through the drywall.
‘Disgusting and vile’: Locals react to arrest of Tampa business owner on AI child porn charges
A Tampa business owner is behind bars facing more than 100 felony charges. He’s accused of making child pornography using Artificial Intelligence.
Clinicians are making more money despite stagnant reimbursement. Guess how?
Compensation for healthcare providers rose some 4.3% in 2025. The sobering news is that the gain owes more to heavier daily workloads than to bigger per-patient billings.
‘Turf Tank’ robot elevates Oregon sports fields
The Oregon Youth Soccer Association is taking advantage of some new technology to keep its fields game day ready.
Trump's DOT clears a pedal-free path for Tesla and Zoox
The NHTSA is proposing allowing the removal of pedals and steering wheels for AVs, making it easier for Tesla and Zoox to pursue alternative designs.
Controversial billionaire tax will appear on November ballot
Proponents of a controversial billionaire tax pledge to making sure it appears on the November ballot to backfill federal healthcare funds.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Heastie brushes off growing DSA influence, defeat of incumbents in Albany
Heastie sought to put the results into context while speaking with reporters at an unrelated event in Schenectady on Thursday.
This Is Probably Your Last Chance to Buy a Cheap MacBook for a While
Apple has dramatically jacked up the price of MacBooks, making the current Prime Day pricing that much more enticing.
Expanding camp adventure for all
A doctor works with Camp Michigania on making accessibility updates that are expanding and improving camper experiences.
Serious statin side effects on muscles are extremely rare, new research confirms
Scientists created a new tool to help doctors predict a patient’s risk of severe muscle problems from taking a statin.
Golden State Valkyries employee named in Sports Business Journal's Forty under 40 list
The Golden State Valkyries have created a winning culture on and off the court. After making WNBA history last season becoming the first expansion team to reach the playoffs, the success is also extending throughout the organization.
Lucky the Bull Gets a Transformation
A local artist has been working for weeks on restoring a historic landmark that will soon be making a public appearance.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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