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A sports blitz starts tonight, plus a WNBA Draft surprise
The Pulse Newsletter 📣 | This is The Athletic’s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Pulse directly in your inbox. Good morning! I hope your TV is in working order. Coming up: 📆 A busy stretch begins 1️⃣ Dallas’ surprise at No. 1 🏆 Rory’s family win One of the busiest stretches of important pro sporting events begins tonight, and I mean that in quite a positive way. The NBA playoffs tip off in a few hours, with two Play-In games. This weekend, the NHL playoffs will join. Both sports will crown winners by the third week of June … which is when the...
SAP Business AI: Release Highlights Q1 2026
In Q1 2026, SAP has a new in the chief AI officer role, but an unchanged mission: helping our customers get real value from AI.
B2BINPAY Rolls Out Partner Program With Direct Earnings on Referred Transaction Volume
SAN SALVADOR, El Salvador, April 14, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- In B2B payments, new business often comes through trusted professional networks lo...
Pope Leo’s resolute response to Trump attack reveals a man of God, not politics
Pope Leo XIV does not claim to direct political outcomes. He claims the right, and the duty, to judge them.
Scientists finally know where the Colorado River’s missing water is going
For years, water managers have been puzzled as the Colorado River kept delivering less water than expected—even when snowpack levels looked promising. New research reveals the missing piece: spring rain, or rather, the lack of it. Warmer, drier springs mean plants are soaking up more snowmelt before it can reach rivers, fueled by sunny skies that boost growth and evaporation. In fact, this shift explains nearly 70% of the shortfall, tying the mystery directly to the long-running Millennium drought.
Alex Cooper breaks silence on Alix Earle's 'beef' amid feud rumors
After a year of feud rumors between the podcasters, Alex Cooper directly addressed Alix Earle, who seems to have \
Louisville businesses, neighbors bracing for impact of I-65 closure this summer
We're less than 50 days away from I-65 being shut down in both directions in Louisville.
Mavericks part ways with director of health Johann Bilsborough
Johann Bilsborough had previously worked with the Celtics and the NFL's New England Patriots, before spending two seasons with Dallas.
THE WEEK OF APRIL 13, 2026
- Science groups criticize proposed budget cuts - Congress to hold budget hearings - White House abandons indirect costs case
Sources: Mavs dismiss director of health in another shake-up
The Dallas Mavericks have dismissed director of health and performance Johann Bilsborough on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive year that the franchise has made major changes in that department.
Utah Royals FC Welcomes Dave Tenney as Senior Director of Player Health and Performance
HERRIMAN, Utah (Monday, April 13, 2026) – Utah Soccer President of Soccer Operations Jason Kreis - overseeing Utah Royals FC (National Women’s Soccer League), Real Salt Lake (Major League Soccer), Real Monarchs (MLS NEXT Pro) and the RSL Academy - has named highly-respected sports medicine veteran Dave Tenney as the
1% Better with The Science of Gratitude & Why It Works
Executive Director and Motivational Speaker Rich Bracken joins Shane and Kerrigan to share the science behind gratitude.
1% Better with The Science of Gratitude & Why It Works
Executive Director and Motivational Speaker Rich Bracken joins Shane and Kerrigan to share the science behind gratitude.
Hezbollah official says the group won't abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks in the US
A senior Hezbollah official says the Lebanese militant group will not abide by any agreements made in upcoming direct talks between Israel and Lebanon in the United States.
Seattle’s Union Arts Center names first permanent artistic director
Yuvika Tolani comes to the theater company, formed from the merger of ACT Contemporary Theatre and Seattle Shakespeare Company, with an unusual background.
Two Free 'PowerWash Simulator' DLCs Are Being Delisted Next Month
Seventh Heaven and Croft Manor will have to stay dirty for some
Student view: Celebrating learning as much as winning
Navya Bhardwaj will graduate on May 3 with a bachelor’s degree in computer science and engineering and minors in data science, and computational mathematics, science and engineering. She is president of MSU Women in Computing and served as co-director of SpartaHack.
Ann Brach Appointed Executive Director of Transportation Research Board at National Academies
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine announced today that Ann Brach has been named the executive director of the Transportation Research Board (TRB).
IRA Financial Named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way
SIOUX FALLS, S.D., April 13, 2026--IRA Financial, a leading provider of self-directed retirement solutions, today announced it has been named Business of the Year by Sioux Empire United Way as part of its 2026 annual Thank You Event. The award recognizes organizations that demonstrate exceptional commitment to supporting the Sioux Empire community through philanthropy, volunteerism, and leadership.
South Business Drive Reconstruction to Begin on Wednesday
Things are about to get a bit more complicated on Sheboygan's south side as reconstruction of South Business D...
ENTERTAINMENT: Defuria - Los Angeles Business Journal
PACIFIC PARK ON THE SANTA MONICA PIER NAMES TIM DEFURIA AS DIRECTOR OF GOVERNMENT AND COMMUNITY AFFAIR Pacific Park on the Santa Monica Pier announced
Nukes and Nassau Hall: Inside Princeton’s Science and Global Security Program
Co-directors of Princeton's Science and Global Security Program Zia Mian and Alexander Glaser are working to understand nuclear arms control, nonproliferation, and policies around disarmament alongside a team of researchers and visiting scholars.
Miu Miu Literary Club 2026 to Talk Politics of Desire, Sexuality
The three-day literature-centric Miu Miu Literary Club is to be held during Milan Design Week under the direction of Miuccia Prada.
Wisconsin AD leaving to become deputy commissioner at Big Ten, sources say
Wisconsin athletics director Chris McIntosh is leaving the school to become the Big Ten's deputy commissioner for strategy, sources told ESPN on Sunday.
IMF director says shock from US-Iran War is 'baked' into the economy
War has ravaged the Middle East for 43 days, but the damage could take years to repair amid tension at the Strait of Hormuz and damaged oil hubs.
AD Chris McIntosh is reportedly leaving Wisconsin for role in Big Ten office
According to two reports, Chris McIntosh, Barry Alvarez's successor as athletic director, is leaving Wisconsin for a job with the Big Ten Conference.
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film 'Hope' to be distributed by U.S. indie powerhouse NEON
Director Na Hong-jin's upcoming film “Hope” will be distributed in North America by the U.S. indie powerhouse distributor NEON, the movie’s co-producer, Plus M Entertainment, said on Monday.
Wisconsin AD McIntosh to take new position at Big Ten
Wisconsin AD Chris McIntosh is set to become the Big Ten’s chief strategy officer, reporting directly to Tony Petitti. Exact responsibilities are TBD.
Wisconsin AD McIntosh to take new position at Big Ten
Wisconsin AD Chris McIntosh is set to become the Big Ten’s chief strategy officer, reporting directly to Tony Petitti. Exact responsibilities are TBD.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Podcast provides in-depth coverage of area food, restaurant scene - Talk Business & Politics
John Engleman, a former sports anchor and director with over a decade of media relations experience, started a podcast to keep tabs on the ever-evolving food and restaurant sector in...
Ravens Scott Elliott praises Trey Hendrickson's 'elite' work ethic
Ravens Director of Strength & Conditioning Scott Elliott praised newly signed linebacker Trey Hendrickson's 'elite' physical makeup and work ethic.
Anthropic brings Claude into Microsoft Word, and legal contract review leads its use cases
Anthropic's Claude for Word beta is live in Microsoft Word for Team and Enterprise users, with legal contract review as the tool's first listed use case
Student-led sports business conference brings industry leaders to campus
University of Illinois event highlights careers in athletics, media and analytics through panels and networking.
Opinion: The rural health program isn't so transformational
Rural health care systems have been in crisis for decades, a situation that will become more dire when steep cuts to Medicaid kick in next year.
Peloton’s Latest Leader Thinks He Can Coach It Back to Health
The fitness company has fallen to a small fraction of its value at its pandemic peak, but Peter Stern says Peloton is headed in the right direction.
Peloton’s Latest Leader Thinks He Can Coach It Back to Health
The fitness company has fallen to a small fraction of its value at its pandemic peak, but Peter Stern says Peloton is headed in the right direction.
Why Bill Moos is fed up with major college sports
Bill Moos, former player, coach and athletic director of some of the country’s past and present powerhouses, has seen the future of college athletics and is glad he retired to 63 acres near Spokane.
The Dirt: Frontier Behavioral Health planning new Spokane location
The longstanding location of Spokane Roofing Company will soon become a Frontier Behavioral Health location, according to a construction permit application submitted to the city of Spokane.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
Chamber of Commerce Presents Achievement Awards
Event also marked 110th of the chamber’s presence in Oswego [caption id=attachment_10469 align=alignright width=450] Abby Waever and Keara Patterson (in the middle) receive the Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group.[/caption] The Greater Oswego-Fulton Chamber of Commerce (GOFCC) on March 4 hosted its 2026 Annual Meeting, presented by Constellation, at the Lake Ontario Event and Conference Center in Oswego. The event’s theme, Rooted in Community. The meeting celebrated the GOFCC’s 110th anniversary in the Oswego community and 10th anniversary of integration with CenterState CEO. The chamber also unveiled a new logo. “I am proud to say the GOFCC has been a force for business success, growth and opportunity, supporting organizations of every size, connecting neighbors and entrepreneurs and ensuring that every voice in Oswego County is heard,” said GOFCC Executive Director Sara Broadwell. The event featured keynote remarks from Novelis’s Kevin Schutt, vice president, manufacturing and production support at Novelis North America. [caption id=attachment_10454 align=alignright width=450] Maria Hudson of Constellation, holding the award, receives the Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award.[/caption] The GOFCC recognized the following organizations and individuals with achievement awards: • Oswego County Impact & Excellence Award, presented to Oswego County Office of Mobility Management. This award Honors a small business or nonprofit organization that demonstrates outstanding achievement through innovation, growth and measurable positive impact on Oswego County’s economy or quality of life. • Community Leadership & Legacy Award, presented to The Alberts Group. This award recognizes an individual, business or organization whose long-term leadership, investment or philanthropy has significantly advanced the vitality, resilience and future of Oswego County’s communities. • Nancy L. Premo Woman of Distinction Award, presented to Maria Hudson of Constellation. This award honors a woman in business who has made a meaningful impact on her community, inspired others through her leadership, and exemplified the values of service, integrity and empowerment. This award is presented in tribute to the late Nancy Premo, CenterState CEO’s former vice president of Human Resources.
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
U.S.-Iran direct talks begin in Pakistan as war's fragile ceasefire holds
Face-to-face negotiations have begun between the United States and Iran in Pakistan, days after a fragile, two-week ceasefire was announced.
“As of January 2026… Drew Murray is now working on the StarCraft shooter” — this report could be the clearest sign yet that the project is moving forward
Fresh insight into Blizzard’s StarCraft shooter suggests experienced talent is being assembled, with Drew Murray of the now closed The Initiative joining as associative design director.
Bielema, Gies, associate athletic director share insights on world of college sports
Alumnus and donor Larry Gies, who first “fell in love” with UI by attending a football game with his father, said that athletics often serve as a university’s “front door”
Jeff Landry and Helena Moreno hope Hondo Rodeo Fest in New Orleans pays off
Horses paced on the deep pad of dirt spread across the floor of the Caesars Superdome Friday afternoon, listening to a sound check booming from the enormous concert stage.
Acting CDC director delayed release of study showing benefit of Covid vaccines
An HHS spokesperson said Dr. Jay Bhattacharya had concerns about the paper’s methodology. Some current or former CDC employees worry about political interference.
Update on Proposed Dissolution of SBE Directorate at the National Science Foundation (NSF) -
On Friday, April 3, 2026, it was reported that interim leadership at the National Science Foundation announced during an internal all-staff meeting that they would preemptively start making moves to dissolve the SBE Directorate in [...]
Andrej Karpathy says there's a 'growing gap' among AI users
Ex-Tesla AI director and OpenAI founding member Andrej Karpathy wrote that AI power users and skeptics are "speaking past each other."
PC Industry In Dire Straits, 'Asking You to Own Nothing and Be Happy,’ Says Framework CEO
At least one laptop maker is saying what PC owners have all been thinking.
Weekend Pulse 4/10-4/12
Live music, circus performances, film screenings and fundraisers highlight a busy April weekend across southwestern New Hampshire and southern Vermont.
WHO Says Iran Health System Is in Crisis, Commits $800,000 Emergency Funds
The World Health Organization released $800,000 from its emergency contingency fund to support the health response in Iran. Hanan Balkhy, a regional director for the United Nations agency, welcomed the current cease-fire but warned the health crisis in Iran was ongoing. “Humanitarian and health nee
Gravitational waves may be hidden in the light atoms emit
Scientists have proposed a surprising new way to detect gravitational waves—by observing how they change the light emitted by atoms. These waves can subtly shift photon frequencies in different directions, leaving behind a detectable signature. The effect doesn’t change how much light atoms emit, which is why it’s gone unnoticed until now. If confirmed, this approach could lead to ultra-compact detectors using cold-atom systems.
Former members of Congress visit Rice to discuss politics, public service and civil dialogue
Students at Rice had the opportunity to engage directly with former members of Congress from different political parties during a two-day campus visit that emphasized civil dialogue, public service and the role of politics in everyday life.
Meet the air traffic controller behind the PGA Championship
Jackie Endsley tapped her honorary Philadelphian standing after the PGA Championship lost its first director.
Mainz midfielder ruled out for multiple weeks
1. FSV Mainz 05 will have to manage without Jae-sung Lee in the coming weeks.After the midfielder missed Thursday’s 2–0 win over Racing Strasbourg in the Conference League, sporting director Niko ...
Eddie Howe reaffirms ‘100 per cent’ commitment to Newcastle job
The head coach said he thinks he is "totally aligned" with the club's sporting director and CEO but cannot look beyond the next seven games.
303 Lebanese Killed by Israeli Airstrikes in One Day
Hezbollah rejected direct negotiations with Israel, adding, "any dialogue must follow an immediate halt to Israeli attacks."
Netflix's 'Thrash' is junk-food entertaining to roast, mock and enjoy
From the director of “Violent Night” (Tommy Wirkola), “Thrash” is Netflix’s first summery film of the year. In 2026, you can’t simply have a natural disaster movie or a predator
White House Warned Staff Not to Engage in Insider Trading Amid War With Iran
The directive came amid a surge of suspiciously well-timed trades on oil and prediction markets just ahead of crucial moments in the conflict.
When and why political leaders polarise rhetoric: Evidence from Twitter/X
Standard theories of electoral competition predict that politicians should converge toward the centre as elections approach. This column challenges this prediction, using 3.4 million tweets from 367 political leaders across 21 Western democracies. Rhetorical polarisation between populist and non-populist leaders rises sharply in the two quarters before an election and reverts to average levels once it is over. Both groups adopt a more emotionally direct communication style as elections near, but they increasingly talk about different topics. The findings suggest that social media turns electoral campaigns into an engine of political polarisation.
CBS releases 7-round Detroit Lions NFL mock draft
CBS unveiled a full, seven-round NFL mock draft. What direction are the Detroit Lions headed?
CDC delays COVID vaccine benefits report
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reportedly delayed the publication of its report detailing the benefits of the COVID-19 vaccine at the behest of its acting director. Acting CDC…
So When Can We Call Wisconsin a Blue State?
The state’s Republicans are in a dire situation. Let’s keep it that way.
Did WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. Insiders Breach their Fiduciary Duties to Shareholders?
/PRNewswire/ -- Halper Sadeh LLC, an investor rights law firm, is investigating whether certain officers and directors of WEBTOON Entertainment Inc. (NASDAQ:...
How The Mets Are Adjusting To Life Without Juan Soto
Juan Soto is nowhere to be found because his directive is, simply, to rest.
Inaugural Entertainment Acquires Green Day Inspired Comedy, And Announces New Title, “NIMRODS”
Today, Inaugural Entertainment announces the acquisition of a new Green Day inspired comedy from Live Nation Studios, as well as a new title, NIMRODS. The film, formerly titled “New Years Rev,” was developed by writer/director Lee Kirk with global rock superstars Green Day and produced by Tim Perell for Process. …
Nevada Health Centers’ Mammovan expands rural mammograms, seeks licensed drivers
For women across Nevada, getting an annual mammogram can be quicker and more convenient thanks to a mobile clinic designed to bring breast cancer screenings dir
Olivia Munn Says 'Obnoxious' Male Co-Star Wouldn't Let Her 'Save' Him On-Screen
The “Your Friends & Neighbors” star said the actor quickly grew “combative with the director” over the scene.
Can AI dream of electric sheep? The team behind the award-winning 1000XResist on their next game
We talked with Remy Siu, the Creative Director behind the award-winning 1000XResist, about their upcoming AI-centric game.
Amazon’s chip business could be worth $50 billion, Jassy says, and he hints it may sell them externally
Andy Jassy's 2026 shareholder letter reveals Amazon's Graviton, Trainium, and Nitro chips generate $20bn+ a year — and could be sold directly to third parties.
As Trump throws lifeline to coal plants, critics warn of higher costs and health risks
The United States is undergoing a dramatic shift in energy policy as President Donald Trump wields government's sweeping powers to benefit coal and suppress cleaner alternatives. It could lead to more expensive electricity and dirtier air.
Franya Esquivel
CohnReznick, a leading professional services firm, has announced that Franya Esquivel has joined its Assurance practice as a director.
Manuel Figueroa To Direct 'Wild Ones' Drama Starring Annie Gonzalez
Manuel Figueroa is set to make his feature directorial debut with 'Wild Ones,' a coming-of-age drama starring Annie Gonzalez.
Purchase of Alabama health system could breathe new life into struggling, 119-year-old hospital
“This is a huge step in the right direction for the future of our healthcare system,” a city leader said.
A conversation with Sir Michael Marmot
How the realization that health outcomes are directly tied to social status led to a framework to reduce health inequalities.
Wasabi to acquire Seagate's Lyve Cloud business
Wasabi to acquire Seagate's Lyve Cloud business - SiliconANGLE
Films by Almodovar, Pawlikowski and Hamaguchi lead an auteur-heavy Cannes Film Festival lineup
New films by Polish filmmaker Paweł Pawlikowski, Japanese writer-director Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Spain’s Pedro Almodovar will premiere at the 79th Cannes Film Festival next month | KNSS Radio
Amazon Pharmacy to Offer Eli Lilly and Company’s New GLP-1 Pill Foundayo via Same-Day Delivery
Amazon Pharmacy (NASDAQ: AMZN), a full-service digital pharmacy that offers fast medication delivery directly to customers' homes, now offers Eli Lilly and C...
'We Released a Game With Flaws for a Number of Reasons' — Samson Dev Promises Improvements Amid 'Mixed' Reception
The creative director of Samson has promised the team is "committed to the future" of the game despite launching to a 'Mixed' reception on Steam amid complaints about performance, gameplay, optimization, and more.
CDC delays publishing report showing covid vaccine benefits
The acting CDC director cited concerns with the methodology, but the design has long been used to test vaccine effectiveness.
Popular Scottsdale sports grill, Chandler sushi spot cited by health inspectors
Four East Valley restaurants, including a popular sports grill, and a West Valley taco spot were among places cited by health inspectors in this week's Dirty Dining report.
Data & Business Process Services Stocks Q4 Teardown: Verisk (NASDAQ:VRSK) Vs The Rest
Earnings results often indicate what direction a company will take in the months ahead. With Q4 behind us, let’s have a look at Verisk (NASDAQ:VRSK) and its ...
Kansas City youth sports complex proposal prioritizes local students
The City Council will vote Thursday on a resolution directing the city manager to identify property and financing for the facility.
Detroit hiring retail director to boost stores in neighborhood business districts
Jeffrey Lewis II opened Morningside Cafe on Detroit’s east side three years ago and said he has seen growing momentum along East Warren Avenue.
What leading Planned Parenthood is like now
As the political energy around abortion rights shifts, Alexis McGill Johnson is navigating the future direction of the organization.
Carolyn M. Tucker, Ph.D., elected chair of Florida Community Health Worker Coalition Board of Directors
UF Research Professor Carolyn M. Tucker, Ph.D., was elected chair of the Board of Directors of the Florida Community Health Worker Coalition.
Italy’s Giorgia Meloni attempts political reset after referendum defeat
Facing voter backlash and an energy-driven economic squeeze, the prime minister is recalibrating her ties with Washington
Meeske to headline 2026 Faith and Science Symposium at Hastings College
HASTINGS - The 3rd annual Sachtleben/Throckmorton Faith and Science Symposium, co-hosted by Hastings College a...
Downtown Keene Business Owners Sound Off on Pop-up Chain Bakery, Call for Local Support on WKBK
B Bakes owners discuss chain pop-up controversy, community impact, and why supporting local businesses matters.
Alarm in health service over Palantir staff being given NHS email accounts
Exclusive: Sources believe AI tech company’s engineers have been granted access to directory of up to 1.5m staff
Sonja O’Hara And Sebiye Behtiyar Lead Horror 'The Scorpion'
Gotham Award nominee Behtiyar and Emmy nominee O’Hara are starring in writer-director Zachary Allard’s horror feature debut.
Mamdani earns positive marks at 100-day milestone, Marist poll finds
A majority say the city is headed in the right direction.
Want to win big in sports? Follow Normal West grad Glenn Kinley, TV’s good-luck charm
A 2017 Normal West High School graduate, Kinley has been around a lot of winning in his young career as a television sports director. While at KSNT in Topeka, Kansas, he covered a Kansas men’s basketball national championship and two Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl wins. Now this: Illinois’ run to the men’s basketball Final Four as sports director at WCIA in Champaign.
PAHO Director urges global action to combat rising dengue and other arboviral threats at One Health Forum in Lyon
Lyon, France, 8 April 2026 (PAHO) – The escalating surge of dengue and other arboviral diseases is a direct indicator of how environmental changes are reshaping global public health, underscored the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) Director, Dr. Jarbas Barbosa, during his remarks at the One Health Summit in Lyon, France.
Fiesta Sports Foundation Names Nick Smith Board Chair, David Dorward Chair-Elect and Adds Two New Board Members
As Fiesta Sports Foundation continues to build on its legacy as one of Arizona's premier nonprofit organizations and a cornerstone of the college football community, it has named Nick Smith as Board Chair for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons. In addition, the Foundation welcomed two accomplished executives to its Board of Directors, with the addition of LUV Car Wash Chief Financial Officer Jim Kebert and Levine Investments attorney Lisa Bullington. Starting a two-year term as Chair-Elect is Merrill Lynch Managing Director David Dorward, while Judy Bernas will serve as Chair Emeritus after completing her two-year term as Board Chair.
How the Navy's retail business is working to pull off a turnaround
Sales have fallen at the Navy Exchange, the government-owned department store chain that provides tax-free products to enlisted servicemembers and veterans. Its stores are an important benefit to military families stationed across the world, and its profits directly improve the welfare of Navy sailors. The company is working to revamp its fleet of stores with a planned investment of around $100 million to better compete with major e-commerce players like Walmart and Amazon.
‘The Beast’ is here, plus a base-brawl
The Pulse Newsletter 📣 | This is The Athletic’s daily sports newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Pulse directly in your inbox. Good morning! I hope you have a favorite fact about yourself ready. Inside: 📘 600 pages of NFL Draft 🥊 Base-brawl 🐘 Behold the Zammoth I come to you this morning with a confession. I find most pre-draft content, for any sport, exhausting. Not because of the specific article or mock draft or report, but because of the cycle itself. We are yammering about the infinite possibilities of something that has not happened yet. At a certain point,...
Texas talk of swallowing eastern New Mexico is an old impulse
A legislative directive to study a merger with eastern New Mexico is the latest example of secessionist sentiments around the country. The breakaway notions are fanciful but the discontent is real.
Quest one step closer to permanent science center with $450K grant from Supervisor Haubert
Local nonprofit Quest Science Center is making “steady progress” toward bringing to life its longstanding vision of building a permanent facility downtown Livermore dedicated to science education, its Interim Executive Director Michael Mosby told Livermore Vine.