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Congress passes rare bipartisan bill on housing, how manufactured housing could be crucial to affordability
Bill Maher receives Mark Twain Prize amid uncertainty at Kennedy Center
Comedian and Trump critic Bill Maher on Sunday received the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, the Washington institution that is entangled in a legal battle over President Donald Trump’s effort to overhaul it.
Comedian Bill Maher wins Twain humor prize as the Kennedy Center navigates Trump-era upheaval
Comedian Bill Maher is being awarded the prestigious Mark Twain Prize for American Humor. The ceremony is happening at the Kennedy Center, which has been embroiled in controversy. President Donald
Meaningful Outcomes Determine the Winners of the Health AI Race
Global investment in healthcare AI exceeded $18 billion in 2025, yet health systems still lack a shared understanding of the outcomes that investment should deliver. This paper argues that success in the health AI race will be determined not by technological sophistication but by which systems first identify and pursue the outcomes that matter most to patients, professionals and health systems. Without a shared language for defining and measuring what healthcare AI should deliver, systems risk optimizing for what is easiest to count rather than what matters most. This paper provides a framework for ensuring AI investment translates into real value for healthcare systems and the populations they serve.
Prediction market Kalshi sues Illinois over its push to regulate sports bets
The most recent move in the ongoing legal battle between the state and prediction market operators came after the state enacted new sports wagering taxes to support the $55.9 billion budget it passed this spring.
After budget impasse, business as usual for Virginia Democrats, analysts say
This has been a budget battle like none other, with big personalities, personal attacks and what looked like a high-stakes game of chicken with days to go before the Virginia state government couldn’t pay its bills.
Ted Cruz bill to regulate college sports in NIL era advances
The Texan said he hopes the proposed changes, written with a Democratic senator, can save athletics from a stark separation between the haves and have-nots.
Bills decline to honor O.J. Simpson in making the move to new stadium
Simpson died two years ago, and his reputation became forever stained by charges that he killed his former wife and her male friend in 1994.
GOP Sen. Cassidy seeks to explains RFK Jr. confirmation vote for Health and Human Services
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) in a Sunday inteview sought to explain his controversial vote to confirm Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as he said Kennedy is dug in on h…
Healthcare groups clash over proposed California billionaire tax
California voters in November are set to decide if the state's billionaires should face a new tax on their assets in order to fund healthcare programs.
Healthcare groups clash over proposed California billionaire tax
California voters in November are set to decide if the state's billionaires should face a new tax on their assets in order to fund healthcare programs.
State Sen. Josh Becker unveils "Wartime Price Gouging Prevention Act"
California Sen. Josh Becker has introduced a bill to empower the state attorney general to investigate price gouging during wartime emergencies, addressing what he says is a significant financial burden on Californians.
Assemblyman David Tangipa says California should spend more on veterans than undocumented immigrants
California Assemblyman David Tangipa shared his views on the state's budget negotiations, focusing on tax increases, spending priorities, and the implications of California's $350 billion budget.
California Politics 360 full episode | What to expect on California's November ballot
KCRA 3 Political Director Ashley Zavala leads conversations on California's November ballot questions, including the proposed billionaire tax.
Bill Cassidy accuses Trump of treating Congress as ‘merely an appendage’
Out-going Louisiana senator’s rebuke over Iran war is rare instance of a Republican politician standing up to Trump
'All INdiana Politics'
U.S. Sen. Todd Young has said that a proposed $300 billion payment to Iran would not be funded by American taxpayers, and that any ceasefire with Iran must be contingent on the dismantlement of its nuclear program, while Indiana Senators Young and Banks have split on a housing bill now awaiting President Trump's signature.
Cassidy accuses RFK Jr. of building public health "upon a foundation of lies"
Humor laurels for comedian Bill Maher as the Kennedy Center navigates Trump-era upheaval
Comedian Bill Maher is set to receive the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor at the Kennedy Center.
Humor laurels for comedian Bill Maher as the Kennedy Center navigates Trump-era upheaval
Comedian Bill Maher is set to receive the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor at the Kennedy Center.
Humor laurels for comedian Bill Maher as the Kennedy Center navigates Trump-era upheaval
Comedian Bill Maher is set to receive the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor at the Kennedy Center.
Humor laurels for comedian Bill Maher as the Kennedy Center navigates Trump-era upheaval
Comedian Bill Maher is set to receive the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor at the Kennedy Center.
Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it’s the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
$7.2 billion AI founder Arvind Jain ‘observed’ Sundar Pichai at Google for years before he became CEO—he learned you need to ‘think crazy’ to be successful
Ex-Google engineer says Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Sundar Pichai share the same trait—it’s the lesson he swears by as a $7.2 billion AI CEO
$7.2 billion AI founder Arvind Jain ‘observed’ Sundar Pichai at Google for years before he became CEO—and learned you need to ‘think crazy’ to be successful
International Business Machines (IBM) Is A Top Stock In Billionaire Richard Chilton’s Filings
International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) is one of the 10 Best Stocks to Buy According to Billionaire Richard Chilton. Technology giant International Business Machines Corporation (NYSE:IBM) made a key announcement recently when it announced its 0.7-nanometer chip manufacturing technology. This technology is the most advanced chip manufacturing technology in the world. International Business Machines Corporation […]
Trump gets the complete domination he wanted in Louisiana
Rep. Julia Letlow, his preferred candidate, won the GOP runoff for his longtime rival Bill Cassidy’s Senate seat.
Bernstein Says Life Science Sector is Improving, Resumes Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) Coverage
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) is included among Billionaire Steven Cohen’s Top 11 Dividend Stock Picks. On June 26, Bernstein resumed coverage of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (NYSE:TMO) with a Market Perform rating. It also set a $520 price target after the analyst returned from maternity leave. In a research note, the firm said “Many […]
Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow wins Louisiana Senate primary runoff
Letlow defeated state Treasurer John Fleming in the GOP runoff, NBC News projects. Incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy did not make the runoff.
Trump-backed Julia Letlow faces John Fleming in Louisiana GOP Senate runoff
U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow, who was endorsed by Trump, and state Treasurer John Fleming are competing in the runoff. The two finished ahead of Sen. Bill Cassidy in the May 16 primary after Trump denounced the two-term senator, who voted to convict him following his 2021 impeachment.
Buffalo Bills Make Decision On Honoring O.J. Simpson
As the franchise transitions to a new stadium, officials confirm the legendary running back’s name will be scrubbed from the Wall of Fame, ending a controversial decades-long tribute.
Bill Barr says Todd Blanche isn't 'a toady,' urges senate to confirm Trump's AG pick
Bill Barr argues Todd Blanche's relationship with Trump is a strength, urging Senate Republicans to confirm him as attorney general amid GOP reservations.
How Domo went from a $2.8 billion darling to fighting for its survival
Domo has been rocked by executive departures, new competition from AI agents, and the drunken-driving arrest of its founder and CEO, Josh James.
Bill Maher reveals to JD Vance which political party keeps refusing to face his questions
Bill Maher told Vice President JD Vance on Friday's episode of "Real Time" that many of the Democrats he has supported over the years have declined invitations to appear on his show. (Credit: Real Time with Bill Maher)
Week in Politics: Trump and bipartisan housing bill, John Bolton; Democratic socialists
President Trump canceled a signing for major housing legislation, former National Security Advisor John Bolton pled guilty to mishandling classified documents, and Democratic Socialists made gains.
Germany news: Heat soars as political reforms split opinion
As Europe's heatwave rages, Germany continues to swelter with new records expected Saturday. Elsewhere, politicians bicker over reforms and industry blames train operator DB for billions in losses. DW has the latest.
After ousting Bill Cassidy, Donald Trump faces fresh test of his sway with GOP voters in Louisiana’s Senate runoff
Louisiana Republican voters already rejected an incumbent senator who was crossways with President Donald Trump. In a primary runoff on Saturday, they’ll decide whether to follow Trump’s lead in choosing a new nominee.
LVMH and Accor's Orient Express sets its sights on new tech billionaire class
Shuttling across the French and Italian Riviera, Orient Express's first giant yacht aims to attract a new class of billionaire.
Siekerka on Spadea: Climate Superfund Another Strike at NJ Business Climate
Appearing on Bill Spadea’s new show, Speak for America, on ONNJ, NJBIA President and CEO Michele Siekerka said it’s difficult to determine whether the
California is in for a summer of wild billionaire spending
OPINION: With competing tax measures on the ballot, California billionaires will be spending like... billionaires, political columnist Joe Garofoli writes.
Gun access changes in Florida; DeSantis vetoes bills
Political Connections airs each weeknight at 7 p.m. on Spectrum News.
Trump refuses to sign housing bill, says GOP remains ‘well-unified’
The Business of Grand Theft Auto VI, Explained: How a Billion Dollar Game Is Likely to Pay Off
Anthony Palomba on why the stakes are so high for the Grand Theft Auto VI launch and what it means for the gaming industry and the entertainment industry as a whole.
Is the No Surprises Act working? Government watchdog is uncertain
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said it needs more data to determine what savings the 2020 law is bringing to the U.S. healthcare system—but early data indicate it falls short of expectations.
What if the economy gets better and it doesn’t help the GOP?: From the Politics Desk
Plus, Gavin Newsom’s next move in the billionaire tax fight.
His Fortune’s From the Trash Business. His Basquiats Are Priceless.
In the last few years, waste-management billionaire Patrick Dovigi has become one of the biggest art collectors on the scene. But he’s still under the radar—maybe the shots fired on his home have something to do with that.
‘It’s a bad time to be a normal’: House Republican on current political environment
Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) reacts to President Trump's decision to cancel the signing of the bipartisan housing affordability bill. Rep. Johnson also discusses the president’s Iran strategy and the current political environment.
Rep. Stansbury: Billionaire Leon Black walked out in the middle of Epstein interview
Live Results: Louisiana midterm primary runoffs
Louisiana Republicans will nominate a candidate for U.S. Senate in a primary runoff Saturday, six weeks after denying Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy a shot at a third term.
Newsom urges a national 'billionaires' tax' while fighting one in California
The governor announced his agenda a day after an influential health care union in California pledged to go forward with a ballot measure that would impose a one-time 5% tax on the assets of billionaires living in the state as of Jan. 1, 2026. Newsom opposes that measure.
Congress Revives SAFE Banking Bill For Cannabis Businesses
A bipartisan group of lawmakers has renewed the push to let banks serve state-legal cannabis businesses without fear of federal penalties.
Congress subpoenas Leon Black during interview about Jeffrey Epstein
The House Oversight Committee issued subpoenas to billionaire Leon Black after he declined to answer questions about non-disclosure agreements.
Rock Creek Entertainment District under siege in new lawsuit
A citizens group has sued to block Norman's $1.1 billion Rock Creek Entertainment District, alleging constitutional and Open Meetings Act violations.
Healey’s $305M economic development bill boosts defense, startups
This week, the Legislature's economic development committee released its own version of the bill, which includes money for defense and AI industries.
ON Semi tanks 20% following Synaptics deal as CEO defends core business
The pivot into physical AI grows On Semi's addressable market by an additional $30 billion, the company said.
HHS Expands Secure Access to Health Records Through the TEFCA® Network, Announces Milestone of One Billion Health Records Exchanged
The Office of the National Coordinator for Health IT at HHS announced new steps to strengthen the Trusted Exchange Framework and Common Agreement™ TEFCA®
Medical Debt Bills Advance, House Hears Behavioral Health Testimony
Several healthcare-related bills advanced in the Michigan Legislature during the week of June 22, including legislation addressing medical debt collections and behavioral health screenings.
AI Is Already Reshaping US Politics at Every Level
From data center backlash to boundless cash from tech billionaires and concerns about deepfaked campaign ads, AI is everywhere in the 2026 US elections.
Is AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) Undervalued Or Is Its Recent Rally Already Priced In?
AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) is under renewed scrutiny as investors weigh its recent share price swings and ongoing losses against reported revenue of $5,031.8 million and a market value of about $1.5 billion. See our latest analysis for AMC Entertainment Holdings. At a share price of $1.89, AMC Entertainment Holdings has seen sharp swings, with a 7 day share price return down 33.22% but a 90 day share price return up 99.33%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 37.42%, indicating...
Newsom urges a national 'billionaires' tax' while fighting one in California
California Gov. Gavin Newsom is calling for a national “billionaires' tax” and suggests the U.S. government should own a stake in AI companies.
Gavin Newsom opposes a California wealth tax. He’s proposing a national billionaire tax instead
California Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday proposed a national tax on billionaires that he says is the first part of an “economic reset for America” agenda, which aides explicitly say is part of his considering to launch a presidential campaign.
NASA's canceled Artemis hardware contracts reached $5.9 billion, audit finds
NASA was on track to pay nearly half a billion dollars for a stage adapter. A stage adapter should not cost half a billion dollars.
Trump election bill fight brings House business to a halt
A Republican revolt over President Donald Trump's election overhaul bill has thrown the House into disarray.
Trump election bill fight brings House business to a halt
A Republican revolt over President Donald Trump's election overhaul bill has thrown the House into disarray.
Warren Buffett Bought A Business For $1.7B ‘Over The Phone Without Ever Meeting The People There’ Using The ‘Most Valuable Skill’ He Learned
Buying a company for $1.7 billion without meeting management sounds like the kind of decision that would keep lawyers busy for months. Warren Buffett did it over the phone. Speaking at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in 2003, Berkshire Hathaway Chair...
Sweden and WHO launch new long-term initiative to transform Ukraine’s health system
WHO and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) have launched a new multi-year cooperation project to support the long-term recovery and transformation of Ukraine’s health system. The new project, “Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative: Strengthening Health Governance, Health Financing and Service Delivery for Long-Term Recovery”, was launched at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdansk, Poland on 26 June, and will run from June 2026 to 2029. Sweden will contribute approximately US$ 26 million (240 million Swedish krona) to support this project. This contribution forms part of Sweden’s broader support to Ukraine through the Team Europe approach, which brings together the European Union, its Member States, and key partners such as the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood and Enabel, and WHO as lead health agency, to support Ukraine’s recovery, reform agenda and European integration.“Ukraine’s health recovery cannot be measured only by what is rebuilt, but by whether people can count on the health system when they need it most. The scale of the task is immense, with health reconstruction and modernization needs estimated at US$ 19.4 billion over the next decade. Sweden’s US$ 26 million contribution to Ukraine’s Health System Transformation Initiative is a timely investment in the institutions, financing and services that will support Ukraine’s long-term recovery and European integration. WHO remains a trusted partner of the Government of Ukraine in advancing this process. I am deeply grateful to Sweden for its consistent support and partnership,” said Dr Hans Henri P. Kluge, WHO Regional Director for Europe. More than 4 years of war have placed unprecedented pressure on Ukraine’s health system, creating 3 interconnected challenges. The first is responding to the immediate consequences of the war and the urgent health needs of the population. The second is recovering and modernizing health services today. The third is continuing reforms and aligning the health system with European standards in the context of Ukraine’s future accession to the European Union. The war has led to large-scale population displacement, an increasing need for trauma care and rehabilitation, and shortages of health workers. High out-of-pocket payments in Ukraine make access to health services more difficult. Around 46% of total health expenditure is paid directly by individuals, placing a significant financial burden on many households and underscoring the need for reforms in health financing. Older people, persons with disabilities, women, children and veterans continue to face the greatest difficulties in accessing health services. “Ukraine is demonstrating that health system transformation can continue even during war. Ukraine is also continuing to align its health system with European norms and standards. WHO is committed to supporting Ukraine on this journey. We provide technical support, help coordinate partners’ efforts and support the institutional changes needed to strengthen the system. We are grateful to Sweden for its support. Through this partnership, we can help Ukraine build a more resilient, accessible and people-centred health system,” said Dr Jarno Habicht, WHO Representative in Ukraine. About the Health System Transformation InitiativeThe new initiative will support Ukraine through 3 interconnected areas: strengthening governance and coordination of health sector reforms through more inclusive coordination platforms and structured policy dialogue; transforming service delivery by reinforcing a primary health care-centred model that integrates family medicine, nursing and midwifery; and improving financial sustainability by supporting reforms that ensure the long-term viability of the national health system and reduce out-of-pocket payments for households. Overall, these reforms are expected to make the health system more coherent and easier to navigate, improve the quality and continuity of care, and ensure more equitable access to services, particularly for those who need them most. They will also support Ukraine’s progress towards a more modern health system aligned with European standards. “We are convinced that long-term recovery is not possible without strong, high-quality, person-centred health services that are accessible to everyone. Our partnership with WHO is designed to support deep and lasting systemic changes. Investments in human capital especially autonomous midwives, whose role for maternal, newborn and adolescent sexual and reproductive health cannot be understated, stronger governance, digital transformation and the financial sustainability of the health system are investments in Ukraine’s future. We are proud to support this process,” said Malin Perhult, the Head of the Ukraine Unit at Sida. Focus throughout implementation will be given to the most vulnerable population groups, including older people, women and children, and persons with disabilities, who have been affected by the war and face greater health-care needs. The initiative will be implemented in close cooperation with the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the National Health Service of Ukraine, the Public Health Centre of Ukraine, regional authorities and international partners. This project will help Ukraine move towards a system where everyone can access the health care they need. It will strengthen primary care, make the health finance system more stable and predictable, and reduce the out-of-pocket costs that Ukrainians face when using health services. As a result, the Ukrainian health system will become more aligned with European standards and more sustainable in the long run.
Should I Start A Business From Passion Or With The Intention To Sell?
Sara Blakely did not set out to build a billion-dollar company. She just wanted better underwear.
Whole Hog Politics: It was voters, not Senate Republicans, who forced Trump’s hand on Iran
[Watch Whole Hog Politics live: Join us today at 9 am ET at TheHill.com as Chris Stirewalt and host Bill Sammon break down this week’s political news and answer questions from a live online audienc…
First Look: Breguet Releases 3 new Tourbillon Watches for the 225th Anniversary of its Invention
New takes on the Breguet Classique Tourbillon Sidéral, the Tradition Tourbillon and the Marine Tourbillon Équation Marchante.
CNBC's Most Valuable Sports Empires 2026: Here's how the world's top 20 stack up
The world's 20 most valuable sports ownership groups are worth a combined $269 billion, according to CNBC's Most Valuable Sports Empires 2026.
Federal AI security center measure advanced by House Science
A measure that would put into law a key federal office focused on artificial intelligence advanced Thursday out of the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, as part of a slate of AI-focused and data center bills. The committee advanced the bills on a bipartisan basis, but put off potential changes regarding funding levels for […]
Cabo Verde Is a Breakout Star of the World Cup. So Is the Family-Owned Business That Designed Its Jerseys
After more than three decades manufacturing apparel, Capelli Sport co-founder and CEO George Altirs found his company’s biggest billboard yet—3,500 miles away from his midtown Manhattan office.
Introducing: Breguet Celebrates the 225th Anniversary of the Tourbillon with Four New Releases, And the Return of a Collector Favorite (Live Pics)
A revived and revised version of the Roth-designed caliber 558.1 movement (significantly improved) headlines four watches to celebrate the patent date of one of Abraham-Louis Breguet's most notable achievements.
Hall of Fame GM Expresses Concerns About Extending Vita Vea
As a lucrative "hold-in" intensifies, Bill Polian warns that committing massive capital to an aging nose tackle could backfire for a Tampa Bay roster already in transition.
Mark Cuban urged AI firms to spend billions on cities hit by job losses
He said this is the "cost of doing business" for the companies that are losing a PR battle with the masses.
Clinicians are making more money despite stagnant reimbursement. Guess how?
Compensation for healthcare providers rose some 4.3% in 2025. The sobering news is that the gain owes more to heavier daily workloads than to bigger per-patient billings.
California unions, hospitals strike deal — but billionaire tax heads to ballot
Two healthcare ballot measures are gone. One very contentious wealth tax isn't.
Billionaire tax, affordable housing: See the measures on California's November ballot
California voters will decide on 14 statewide policy proposals come November, from the controversial billionaire tax to an $11 billion affordable housing bond.
California’s Billionaire Tax Kicks Off a Democratic Civil War
The divisive proposal heads to the ballot after attempts to reach a compromise deal failed.
Controversial billionaire tax will appear on November ballot
Proponents of a controversial billionaire tax pledge to making sure it appears on the November ballot to backfill federal healthcare funds.
It's Xbox's turn (again), as console prices keep going up
Microsoft announced a price hike for the Xbox Series consoles today, the third in little over a year. Effective August 1, the Xbox Series S, which launched in 2020 for $300, will cost $500 in the U.S. The Xbox Series X, which launched in 2020 at $500, will go for $800. This follows a round of PlayStation 5 price increases from Sony this spring, and a slow-motion increase for Nintendo’s Switch 2, which will kick in in the U.S. in September. (Mind you, there were also eight video game industry price hikes in six months of 2025). The chart up top shows the sudden ascent of console prices over the past year, a sudden surge in an already unusual hardware generation. Prices had been flat for years, now “up” is the new “flat.” Game console prices used to go down across the length of a console generation, but not this time around. Microsoft’s explanation for the new price hike today: We hoped another price increase would not be necessary, and we have spent the last several months working with suppliers on options. Unfortunately, console storage and memory prices have increased by more than 2.5x and we expect another doubling by the fall of 2027. The entire consumer electronics industry is struggling with the current components crisis, but the effects are particularly hard on consoles. Unlike phones, computers, speakers, and other consumer devices, consoles are typically not sold at a profit, but instead for less than they cost to make. This is an issue well beyond game consoles. Apple announced price hikes on its computers and tablets today as well. Game File is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribe Item 2: Brutal Bungie cuts Bungie laid off “most” of its Destiny development team and some developers who worked on Marathon, the newest game from the struggling Sony-owned studio. A WARN notice issued by Sony to Washington State, where Bungie is based, tallied cuts impacting 292 workers, effective next month. That’s strictly for Bungie/Sony jobs in Washington and wouldn’t account for any elsewhere. The video I clipped below shows the redacted list of Bungie cuts filed to Washington State officials. As you’ll see, I had to scroll for a while… In a note emailed to PlayStation workers and published online, PlayStation game studios chief Hermen Hulst offered the following explanation for these latest cuts at Bungie: This is painful news, especially for talented colleagues whose roles have been eliminated. This decision was made only after extensive discussion and careful consideration, and I want to provide some context on how we arrived here. Over the past several months, together with Bungie leadership, we reviewed the studio’s long-term direction, development priorities, resource needs, and role within our broader portfolio strategy. We explored multiple alternatives before concluding that a reduction was necessary to align the studio’s resources with its current priorities and long-term goals. In 2022, Sony bought Bungie for $3.7 billion. The studio’s marquee game, the multiplayer live service shooter Destiny 2 was losing popularity at the time. Its next game Marathon, released earlier this year, has been well-reviewed but had a slow start. Bungie is renowned for making great shooter games, and Destiny fans have mourned the wind-down of Destiny 2. They’ve also expressed bewilderment over reports that Destiny 3 is not, per Bloomberg, immediately in the cards.
Discussing progress in nuclear fuel and materials science
The NEA held the sixth annual week of collaborative meetings of the Working Party on Materials Science Issues in Nuclear Fuels and Structural Materials (WPFM) from 18-22 May 2026 at the NEA offices in Boulogne-Billancourt, France.
Sephora CEO Guillaume Motte on Creating Demand and Scaling Desire
The beauty retailer’s chief executive spoke at day two of The Business of Beauty Global Forum about the strategies that have led to $5 billion in growth over the past three years.
ESPN believes Detroit Lions have best weapons in NFL
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell believes the Detroit Lions have better offensive weapons than any other NFL team in 2026.
Stonepeak reveals $2.53B offer for Chicago parking meter lease
Stonepeak disclosed its $2.53 billion bid for Chicago's parking meter lease as it urged skeptical aldermen to approve the transfer and criticized the Johnson administration.
Business Council deliberations continue with four bill drafts
Lawmakers on the Joint Appropriations Committee spent another day diving through the Wyoming Business Council’s dealings. This time, they also reviewed draft bills that would influence how the council operates.
Making Our Own Luck
We are cross-posting a piece that former NIH official Kris Willis wrote for Macroscience. Kris is now the President and Founder of the Woodley Park Institute, for which I’m a board member. Picking winners or hedging bets? Federal science agencies have long wrestled with the question of how to ensure their billions of dollars of grants and contracts result in maximum benefits for Americans. On the surface, it might seem that a goal-oriented, interventionist style of management would be the best policy: prioritize our most pressing problems and distribute funding accordingly.This top-down strategy creates a unique hazard, though: bad choices can send resources in the wrong direction, resulting in slow progress that impedes the delivery of tangible benefits to citizens. Moreover, if decision makers pursue an applied advance when the underlying scientific principles remain poorly understood, they risk costly failures and a loss of support for the research enterprise at large. Examples include Nixon’s 1971 War on Cancer, undertaken on the premise that a cure could be achieved in less than a decade, the drive to build an operational commercial fusion plant by the mid-1990s, and the National Plan to Address Alzheimer’s Disease, which failed to produce the effective treatments and prevention strategies promised by 2025. The contrasting laissez-faire approach is to hedge your bets. If the path to an advance is impossible to predict, then the wisest choice might be to distribute funding to as widely as possible. The main risk of this strategy is that spreading funding thinly may limit the resources available to the most promising research, resulting in the same negative outcomes as the interventionist approach: limited support for the most promising topics, slow progress, and delayed returns. In reality, at science agencies like the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health, program managers navigate between these two extremes, setting some funds aside to target high-priority areas and using the rest to cover the widest possible range of meritorious proposals. This middle path seems like the most rational way to proceed, but it still requires making choices. How much should be set aside for high priority topics? What should those topics be? How should we define merit? Expert opinion can provide a helpful guide, but leading experts can have remarkably different opinions about what matters and what should be prioritized. Moreover, experts and administrators alike can be risk averse, giving an edge to high-profile, well-established concepts. What’s really needed is a data-driven framework to help guide decision-making, one that doesn’t simply repackage prestige or incumbency. Recognizing breakthroughs years in advance Many breakthroughs fail to attract funding or recognition at the earliest stages of development. Katalin Karikó, for example, spent years struggling to win grants for work on mRNA that would eventually win her and Drew Weissman a Nobel Prize. Similar stories can be told about Jim Allison’s groundbreaking studies leading to the development of cancer immunotherapy, Stan Pruisner’s demonstration that prions can self-replicate without DNA, or Robin Warren and Barry Marshall’s proof that Helicobacter pylori, not stress, causes ulcers. Yet at some point, the scientific community recognizes and responds to transformative breakthroughs like these. How does that change happen? And what if science funders could identify the areas that are on the cusp of a breakthrough? Those questions led my collaborators and me to study how scientists responded to past breakthroughs. Based on patterns in that data, we developed a means of predicting future breakthroughs, using biomedicine as a proof of concept. It’s worth taking a moment to describe how our approach works. Briefly, our prediction process begins by grouping the 18 million or so peer-reviewed papers in PubMed, the authoritative database of biomedical research, into roughly 50,000 unique topics. A small subset of these topics are so widely acclaimed as breakthroughs that they have been recognized with a major prize like a Nobel or a Lasker Award. We theorized that studying the development of these outliers over time, especially before they gained acclaim, was the key to identifying future instances of them. After defining topics, we chose 21 representative breakthroughs and asked what they looked like before they won prestigious prizes. To answer that question, we re-ran our topic-mapping algorithm repeatedly, winding back the clock one year each time, stringing together the years to follow the progress of each field as it grew and advanced. We found that in each case, the years leading up to a discovery followed a pattern: a burst of papers on a new, rapidly evolving topic, many of which quickly became influential. These characteristics—the percent of papers that are new, the percentage of papers that are brought in from other topics, and the influence of each individual paper—can all be measured separately for any given topic. Together, they act as a predictive signal that is detectable an average of five years before a transformative discovery is made, and up to thirty years before the discovery receives a major prize. Scanning the current research landscape for topics that display this signal allows us to predict what work will likely produce a future breakthrough. Each year we analyzed includes four or five signals, a number that appears to have remained constant across a twenty year time frame. In their classic work on the sociology of science, Bruno Latour and Steve Woolgar established that the desire to participate in a major discovery is an important motivator for scientists as they consider whether they should take up (or abandon) a research problem. Although further work is needed, the simplest explanation for our results is that this behavior is widespread enough to detect at scale. A foundational advance, or something like it, draws the attention of scientists and causes them to change the direction of their research. They vote with their feet, staking their own reputation and careers by publishing on and citing the new idea. That upswell of interest is the foundation of our breakthrough signal. What kind of research does our model identify as a breakthrough? After building a model based on the patterns in our 21 preselected breakthroughs, we tested it by identifying all early signals of discovery from 1994 through 1997. Of the 18 signals we found in that time period, 17 can be traced forward in time to a breakthrough. Examples include super-resolution fluorescence microscopy (see the image above), the directed evolution of proteins and enzymes (Chemistry Nobel, 2018), and sequencing the human genome (National Medal of Science, 2008). The discovery of the role of leptin signaling in obesity is a particularly interesting case study. Around 1950, scientists noticed the existence of a type of lab mouse that suffered from a unique inherited form of obesity. When given the freedom to choose their own diet, these mice ate more than normal and preferred food that was high in fat. Researchers had few clues as to why the animals overate; early experiments pointed to the existence of a soluble ob factor found circulating in the bloodstream that regulated appetite, but its identity was unknown. In 1994, Jeffrey Friedman and colleagues identified and sequenced the ob gene, noting that the protein it encoded appeared to fit the profile of a circulating factor. A year later, a trio of high-profile publications demonstrated that ob was a hormone that regulated body weight and fat deposition by regulating appetite. One of these was co-authored by Friedman, who christened it leptin from the ancient Greek word for thin. Using our model, the data from 1996 make it clear this advance would become a breakthrough. Scientists had flocked to study the biology of the new hormone, generating the flurry of new papers and citations required to produce a signal. One of these demonstrated that serum leptin concentrations reflected the amount of adipose tissue in the human body, providing clinical validation of the earlier mouse studies. Before the identification of leptin, scientists were unable to point to a specific molecule that controlled appetite and adiposity, so that it was impossible to rule out non-physiological causes of obesity; its characterization fundamentally changed our concept of weight gain. In 2010, Friedman and fellow pioneer Douglas Coleman were awarded a Lasker for the discovery. Our work also identifies breakthroughs in clinical practice and behavioral and social sciences, even though these areas are less likely to draw the attention of major prize committees. One example that falls into this category is the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair, a minimally invasive surgical procedure for the treatment of abdominal aortic aneurysm, a leading cause of death among Americans over the age of 65. Relative to the previous standard of care, it reduces in-hospital mortality by almost four-fold. In 2017, Timothy Chuter received the American College of Surgeons’ prestigious Jacobsen Innovation award for his multiple refinements to the technique. Another under-recognized breakthrough identified by our model is the development of standardized survey instruments to assess the quality of life for HIV+ patients. The antiretroviral cocktails introduced in the mid-1990s reduced AIDS mortality, but treatment came with serious side effects. The new evaluations showed that patients whose disease progressed had worse physical functioning than Americans with other chronic diseases, while those who were asymptomatic maintained a health-related quality of life on par with the overall US population. This evidence made it possible for patients and activists to argue that even in the absence of a total cure, and in spite of the side effects, alleviation of symptoms was a worthwhile priority for clinicians. My colleagues and I have failed to identify any significant recognition for the physicians and health policy experts who pioneered this advance, although in 2016, researchers called for the World Health Organization to set targets for good health-related quality of life as part of its framework to end the AIDS pandemic. From forecasting to funding How should science funders use our predictions? Any serious discussion of what we should do with this new capability needs to begin with an understanding of its limitations. We can’t (and shouldn’t) invest all of our resources in the small number of topics predicted to produce breakthroughs. Innovative new fields are born from existing ones; they rarely arise de novo. If funders don’t maintain a diverse portfolio, the breakthroughs of tomorrow will have no antecedents. Think of this as eating the seed corn, or killing the goose that lays the golden egg. There are also multiple goals of funding beyond basic scientific discovery, including translating discoveries into clinical practice, developing new technologies, supporting economic development, and training new scientists. The investments needed to accomplish these goals are likely different from those required to support emerging breakthroughs. Finally, we must be aware that we may not capture every instance of a breakthrough. The concept is fuzzy, and not every significant discovery is recognized with a major award. Further, breakthroughs are rare, meaning that our dataset is, by necessity, small. This makes formal estimates of accuracy challenging. Although our overall success rate appears to be high, any one signal may turn out to be a false positive. We found one apparent example: the development of the third generation COX-2 inhibitors, Vioxx and Celebrex, which were much celebrated in the early 2000s as effective but non-addictive pain relievers, meets all the algorithmic criteria of a breakthrough. Five years after it received FDA approval, researchers demonstrated that Vioxx was associated with serious cardiovascular complications, and the manufacturer voluntarily pulled the drug from the market. Celebrex remains available, although like other NSAIDs, it carries an FDA warning for increased cardiovascular risk. Decision makers who were overly focused on the breakthrough potential of this research might have wasted substantial resources nurturing an area that ultimately proved to be a failure—but so would those who relied on expert opinion at the time. That said, the potential benefits of funding the next mRNA vaccine or cancer immunotherapy years earlier than we might have are large. When we can’t assume the outcome of an action, it’s worth conducting an experiment. Can targeted support for areas that are poised to produce a breakthrough increase the return on scientific investment without cannibalizing future advances? With the necessary administrative infrastructure in place, conducting this experiment would be straightforward. First, identify all the breakthrough signals between 2018 and 2023, select half at random, and commit to a decade of investment. For biomedicine, a six year window should yield about 30 topics with the potential to produce a breakthrough. Providing strong support to half of these might be accomplished for $300 million a year. That’s roughly half of the recent annual budget of the NIH Common Fund or around 20% of the fiscal year 2025 budget for ARPA-H. After five years, then again at ten, compare to see which group — the one that was actively managed, or the control — produced more breakthroughs, and on what timescale. Although we used biomedicine as an example, the same experiment could just as well be run for physics, materials science, or any other discipline. Any attempt to undertake such an experiment should keep three points top of mind. First, we can predict the topic of future breakthroughs, but the people and vision for how to move the work forward are still important. In practice, this means success requires active program managers with the expertise to develop the science and the authority to do so, including by recruiting investigators. Second, we would be wise to learn from the failures of past attempts to fund transformative research. High among these are funding modestly repackaged work, confusing the genuinely novel with the merely unfamiliar, and relying too much on incumbent investigators. All of these risks can be mitigated by thoroughly and intelligently integrating high quality data into portfolio management. Finally, we need to have patience. Even with strong funding support, producing a breakthrough takes time. If supporting breakthroughs is the best way to nurture the birth of new fields, we also need to accurately describe and properly manage the other two stages, so that we invest wisely throughout the productive lifetime of ideas and divest once they reach the point of diminishing returns. We would benefit from more study of all of these phases, especially the transition from one to another. More research could answer questions like: When does a breakthrough become an established field? How do the availability of funding, the size and characteristics of the available workforce, and the accumulation of evidence that disagrees with prevailing models affect a field’s decline? Exactly how do old ideas give birth to new ones, and can we speed up the process? The more we understand about the dynamics of scientific progress, the better we can maximize the odds that our curiosity leads to results. I’d call that finding a way to make our own luck.
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