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Is Starbucks breaking up with Seattle?
Starbucks' big new office in Nashville, and its interest in a Bellevue office last year, have revived questions about the future of one of Seattle's most Seattle brands.
'Show me the money'
What happens when a former senator, a prior governor, a previous representative, and a political advocate talk about corporate money in politics? The exact scenario played out at the MSU-hosted discussion titled “Money, Transparent Elections and the Montana Experience,” at the end of last week. Audience members experienced a bipartisan glimpse into corporate influence, how it is built, spent on campaigns and challenged by voters. A candid conversation emerged between guest speakers former Montana U.S. Senator Jon Tester, former Attorney General and Governor Marc Racicot, previous state senator and representative Jeff Mangan, and political advocate Michel Beckel. The conversation between the four guests circled back to Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission, a landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowing corporations, unions, and associations to spend unlimited amounts of money influencing elections. The decision concluded independent political spending is a form of free speech protected by the First Amendment, directly leading to the rise of massive political action committees and ‘dark money’ in U.S. elections spending. Tester was the first to address the ‘black elephant’ in the room. Responses to moderator questions are edited for clarity and brevity. “We are seeing unbelievable sums of money being put out trying to influence people on how to vote,” Tester said. “Oftentimes the truth goes out the window before the campaigning even starts.”
State lawmakers question DPI officials over transparency concerns
The hearing stemmed from a 2024 workshop on standardized testing held by DPI and a private vendor.
WATCH LIVE: OMB Director Vought testifies before Senate panel on Trump's 2027 budget request
No qualifying bids, so State Health Plan will restart search for new insurer
The initial request for bids came in less than a year and a half after the state switched to Aetna from Blue Cross NC.
Mike White's Prep Talk: 10 questions with Hopewell's James Armstrong, three-sport standout and future major-college QB
James Armstrong has this belief that playing sports gives him peace. Well, then Armstrong lives in almost total peace. If high school sports were on a...
Trump questions NATO amid Iran and Strait of Hormuz tensions in Fox Business interview
CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger answers frequently asked financial questions
When is LA28's next Olympics ticket drop, and where are $28 tickets?
The Times asked readers for their burning questions regarding the Olympics, and it’s the ticketing process that’s bringing the most heat.
Burning Questions about Adobe Premiere Beta's new dedicated Color Mode by Scott Simmons
Just in time for NAB 2026, Adobe has released into the Premiere Beta what might be one of its biggest feature additions in the history of the application, in a new dedicated Color Mode. Color Mode is a dedicated workspace for color correction and color grading. It’s been designed with everything one needs for color [...]Read More... from Burning Questions about Adobe Premiere Beta’s new dedicated Color Mode
They Want to Drop a Bomb in Iran in Honor of My Father, Peter Rodrick
My father died while serving as a squadron commander and Navy pilot. When a request was made to attack Iran in his honor, I decided to take a road trip
We're questioning the wrong leaders in Theetge saga
Cincinnati's police chief deserved to end her career with dignity. Instead, taxpayers are paying the bill for an unnecessary, misguided investigation.
How five UF business students faced 7,000 international competitors and took home first place
From mid-January to mid-March, the five of us competed in the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest — an international tournament where participants assign probabilities to macroeconomic and geopolitical questions and get scored on relative accuracy.
Test your knowledge of local history on The Quest
The Quest is a unique game combining elements of a reality TV show and a traditional scavenger hunt, aimed at educating participants about the interesting facts surrounding Linn County's and Cedar Rapids' history.
Business owners left with questions on proposed Fruitville Road development
Construction of the large apartment project could begin as early as February of next year.
Matt Crocker’s abrupt U.S. Soccer departure brings many questions. Here are the answers.
U.S. Soccer's sporting director is headed for Saudi Arabia. This is what it means for the federation – and what comes next at a pivotal time
He Has a War Chest and an ‘R’ by His Name. Will Enough Voters Like Him?
Vivek Ramaswamy has all but cleared the field ahead of the May primary for Ohio governor, but whether a finance and pharma billionaire is the man for the moment is another question.
Helene exposed cracks in western NC’s health care safety net
Analyses of emergency room use and a doctor’s scramble to reopen his clinic raise questions ahead of the next big storm.
Medical scans and chips: the hidden fallout of the Iran war for China
Four months ago, a dozen academics and researchers from China’s top oil and gas producers issued a warning buried in an academic journal: the nation’s quest for self-sufficiency had a critical weak spot.
A new approach to brain health, one neuron at a time
Neuroscientist Paul Nuyujukian likens the brain to a stadium full of people. To eavesdrop on the crowd you could put a microphone in the middle of the stadium. But to understand the conversations you need to record individual people. He thinks about the brain the same way. To understand brain disease, he studies neurons—one at a time. And his insights are shedding light on a big global issue—stroke. The World Health Organization predicts one in four adults will have a stroke in their lifetime. Strokes can cause death, or lead to paralysis or speech problems. But there’s still a lot researchers don’t know about how the brain recovers from an event like a stroke. Nuyujukian directs a lab at Stanford University that studies how the brain controls movement, including after neurological events like stroke. We get into how he does this, and why he hopes his research could eventually help people who’ve been paralyzed. Email us your questions about the brain – or anything else to do with science at shortwave@npr.org. We may turn it into an episode in the future!Listen to every episode of Short Wave sponsor-free and support our work at NPR by signing up for Short Wave+ at plus.npr.org/shortwave.
Why Many Americans Are Turning to AI for Health Advice, According to Recent Polls
NEW YORK (AP) — When Tiffany Davis has a question about a symptom from the weight-loss injections she’s taking, she doesn’t call her doctor. She pulls out her phone and consults ChatGPT. “I’ll just basically let ChatGPT know my status, how I’m feeling,” said the 42-year-old in Mesquite, Texas. “I ...
WATCH LIVE: OMB Director Vought testifies on Trump’s 2027 budget request in House hearing
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid
FORT COLLINS, Colo. (AP) — President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado's governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding, consistent with his approval of major disaster aid to Republican-leaning states at about twice the rate he approves aid requests from Democratic...
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid
President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado’s governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding.
Trump again rejects Colorado amid accusations of playing politics with disaster aid
President Donald Trump has again denied a request from Colorado’s governor to help people affected by wildfires and flooding
Boone Health, Missouri Heart Center progress toward split
Boone Health withdrew its request for a temporary restraining order against its contracted private cardiology provider.
This fall’s iPhone 18 launch lineup has one big wildcard remaining
Rumors about this fall’s new iPhone 18 lineup keep coming, but there’s one big question mark still: how many iPhones will Apple launch?
Trump’s mental acuity in question amid pattern of erratic behavior
Each moment on its own … maybe you brush it off. But together, people are asking: what exactly are we watching?
House Republicans Step Up Scrutiny of ActBlue Over Foreign Donations
Three Republican-led committees, responding to a New York Times report this month, accused the Democratic fund-raising organization of withholding documents from a subpoena request.
Secret Lair: Back to School Superdrop
There's something for everybody (and everypony) in the Back to School Superdrop. Your attendance is requested when class begins on April 27, 2026.
You can order your own bloodwork now. Interpreting the results is another story
Firms like Function Health and Oura market regular blood tests to people wanting to take their health into their own hands. The process often raises more questions for patients than it can answer.
What Is Business For? The Question Strategic Management Has Never Answered
The field of strategic management has grown more rigorous – and less relevant – as it avoids the question of business purpose.
Holland & Knight Health Dose: April 14, 2026 | Insights
President Donald Trump released his budget request for fiscal year (FY) 2027, laying out his vision for how federal funding will be spent over the next year.
Thunder's repeat bid, Lakers' health and four more NBA playoff questions
The 2026 NBA postseason is here. We break down six big questions, from the Thunder's repeat bid to Lakers' health.
WIAA spring sports season opens with questions for area teams
Can Kaukauna softball, Xavier girls soccer, Freedom girls track defend their state titles? Here are 9 questions heading into the spring sports season.
Yankees news: Aaron Judge calls out the team
Judge renders verdict on offensive woes; Bird demoted; Cole, Rodón, Volpe rehab assignments set; Winquest returned to STL
Shades of Ferguson but Carrick needs a response
Michael Carrick seemed to be taking a chapter out of Sir Alex Ferguson's play book with his ferocious attack on the decisions that went against Manchester United last night. The big question is how will they respond?
Can WR prospect with question marks fix 49ers WR corps?
The San Francisco 49ers have added two veterans wideouts to their room, but now they're looking at intriguing prospect in the 2026 NFL draft.
Bongbong Marcos fights ill-health rumours with star jumps
The Philippine President challenged anyone questioning his fitness to join him in the gym.
Bengals player smoothly answers Dexter Lawrence trade question
A Bengals player got asked about a Dexter Lawrence trade and handled it in a way fans will like.
District 2 Requests Renaming of Splashtown Drive
A Council Consideration Request was filed to rename the street to Willie Mitchell Drive.
NASA science faces 'very serious threat' from new White House budget, experts say
"This is the least transparent NASA budget request I've ever seen — and I've literally looked through every single one since 1960."
Trump, 79, Raises Fresh Health Concerns After Unbelievable Mix-Up
The president’s feeble reasoning sparked questions about his cognitive function.
Eliot Wolf: "Business as usual" for Mike Vrabel in Patriots draft preparations
Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel was not present for the team's pre-draft press conference on Monday, which means that he didn't have to field any questions about the release of photos that have created questions about his relationship with The Athletic's NFL reporter Dianna Russini.
In Focus Maine: The state budget
@MarisaJacquesTV talks with state Rep. @dgattine, @rightjack58 and state Sen. Peggy Rotundo @mainesenatedems about the state budget, spending priorities and the projected impact on Mainers.
How Commissioner Joe Neunder became a symbol of everything voters distrust in SWFL
Sarasota land deal raises ethics questions and fuels voter distrust
Julie’s new AI chatbot aims to fix a major gap in women’s health information
The emergency contraception brand is using a chatbot to answer the questions Gen Z is already asking online.
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Trump’s Erratic Behavior and Extreme Comments Revive Mental Health Debate
As the president threatens to wipe out Iran and attacks the pope, even some former allies and advisers are questioning whether he has grown increasingly unbalanced, describing him as “lunatic” and “clearly insane.”
Mystery Tarkov-Marathon Extraction Blend, ‘Fragmentary Order,’ Raises Questions
Fragmentary Order, already being called “Starkov” by many, debuted a seven-minute cinematic trailer yesterday, dropping from new studio Rant Gaming and publisher Cor3,
Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index: AI posts gains in science and medicine while often struggling to read a clock
Stanford HAI’s 2026 AI Index paints a split-screen picture for R&D. In the report’s science chapter, “frontier models outperform human chemists on average on ChemBench,” yet “score below 20% on replication in astrophysics and 33% on Earth observation questions.” In medicine, the report reaches a similarly mixed conclusion, saying AI is transforming clinical care, but…
Communication, Science & Society Initiative awards four interdisciplinary grants
The Communication, Science & Society Initiative, a research partnership between Penn State’s Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences and the Department of Communication Arts and Sciences in the College of the Liberal Arts, has announced the grant recipients from its 2025 request for proposals.
Following the Success of Artemis II, Scientists Will Shape What Comes Next for Lunar Exploration
NASA plans to launch more lunar missions after the success of Artemis II, signaling a renewed era for lunar exploration and science — and raising questions about what comes next. A National Academies study currently underway will identify key non-polar landing sites for future crewed lunar missions and what science goals could be achieved.
9 questions radiology practices should ask when pursuing ‘disruptive innovation’
CHAMPIONSGATE, Fla. Kaihan Krippendorff, MBA, spoke on April 12 during the opening keynote of the Radiology Business Management Association’s annual meeting.
Light-hitting Mariners taking advantage of Astros' shaky pitching
Every year, generally come playoff time, the question is asked: Does good pitching beat good hitting?
Why college oversight could get more political
The Trump administration is forging ahead in its quest to rid higher education of “radical left” oversight organizations.
After Masters bid falls short, Scottie Scheffler airs Augusta frustration
Scottie Scheffler's quest for a third Masters title came up short, and afterward he voiced a frustration over Augusta National's setup.
Community health centers maintained care continuity during COVID-19 pandemic
As the COVID-19 pandemic upended virtually every aspect of people's lives, one critical question loomed large for millions of low-income and underserved healthcare patients: Would they still be able to see their own doctor?
Paul W. Smith: Are friends avoiding political talk about Trump and Iran?
A childhood friend's note sparks a question: Are people avoiding political discussions about Trump and Iran with friends?
Masters 2026: Only one question remains for Rory McIlroy — how high will he climb among golf's all-time greats?
McIlroy may never have the numbers to catch Jack Nicklaus or Tiger Woods, but he certainly has a pathway to No. 3 all-time.
KFF: US: Global health funding in the FY 2027 President’s budget request
The proposed budget includes significant reductions in and restructuring of global health funding, including the elimination of some programs and activities.
What Flutter Entertainment (FLUT)'s Board Shuffle, Buybacks and Quiet Dart Stake Mean For Shareholders
In recent days, Flutter Entertainment plc reported that long-serving independent director Alfred F. Hurley, Jr. will retire at the 2026 AGM, with Nancy Dubuc set to assume the role of Chair of the Compensation and Human Resources Committee, while the company continues executing a multi-billion-dollar share repurchase program. At the same time, billionaire investor Kenneth Dart has quietly built substantial economic exposure to Flutter through total return swaps, even as analysts question...
Op-Ed: Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals—but without first answering a basic question: what will it cost?
Stein questions whether state’s data center incentives still make sense
Sales tax exemptions could cost N.C. $450 million as new data centers come online, the Democratic governor said.
Scottish election 2026: Party leaders to go head-to-head in debate
The leaders of six political parties face questions from a live studio audience at Paisley Town Hall.
'We are accountable.' Meet Robert Mullen, head of Aultman Health System
In this week's Five questions with feature, meet Robert Mullen, president and CEO of Aultman Health System, the largest employer in Stark County.
Ira Winderman: Wins up, seed similar, season sideways for Heat
MIAMI — A better record. A similar play-in seed. But at least less drama, so there’s that. A year ago, when assessing a 37-45 season that delivered the Heat to the No. 10 and final play-in seed, the thought was of a net gain in escaping a half season of Jimmy Butler drama. Now, when assessing a record assured of finishing on the plus side of .500, the question is if the gain is tangible, ...
3 big questions for Tennessee quarterback battle after spring practice
Josh Heupel spoke in the future tense about the Tennessee quarterback competition. He needs to see more development. Here are factors to consider.
AI health questions? 4 chatbot prompt tips to get the most accurate answers
AI chatbots can still get medical questions wrong, according to new research.
Yankees news: Boone angry with ABS failures
Yanks worst in baseball at challenges; bottom of lineup a Problem; farewell to Winquest; RIP to an old-timer.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting to face questions on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg
This week, Victoria Derbyshire is stepping in for Laura Kuenssberg. Tory MP James Cartlidge and Liberal Democrats leader Ed Davey will also be on the show.
Scottie Scheffler blitzed Augusta National. And then a reporter's question
Scottie Scheffler played his best-ever Masters round on Saturday.
How The Narrative Is Shifting For Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) After Guidance Reset And Target Cuts
Flutter Entertainment’s fair value estimate has been reduced from US$207.44 to US$197.35, lowering the modeled upside by about 4.9%. That change aligns with more cautious research following weaker Q4 results and lower 2026 guidance. At the same time, analysts continue to discuss long term execution and valuation questions from both bullish and bearish perspectives. Read on to see how these revised targets fit into the evolving story and what to watch as new data emerges. Stay updated as the...
Protecting Taxpayers Means Looking Beyond the Politics of Short-Term Rentals
Santa Barbara is on the verge of making a consequential decision about short-term rentals — but without first answering a basic question: What will it cost?
2026 Masters tee times, pairings: Complete schedule, groups, field for Round 4 on Sunday at Augusta National
The quest to win the first major championship of 2026 continues on Saturday at Augusta National Golf Club with Rory McIlroy well out in front
Masters 2026: Scottie Scheffler gets spicy after Round 3 at Augusta
Scheffler fired a 7-under 65 to get himself back in contention, but wasn't thrilled with some questions after his round.
ON THE JOB: “What is the Best Business Advice You’ve Ever Received?
Interviews by Deborah Jeanne Sergeant Sound advice can contribute to your success. We recently asked area business leaders, what was their best advice they’d ever received. Here’s what they said: “The best advice I ever received was from my then –boss, Gerry Church, Fulton plant manager at Miller Brewing Co. He told me that whenever I wanted to discuss a business problem or issue with him, I should also be prepared to offer possible solutions. It’s the difference between being proactive or reactive. It’s also the difference between being a leader or follower. That has served me well in any business relationship I have had since then.” — Stephen Chirello, Owner, Steve Chirello Advertising, Fulton “Someone will always do it for less; they will also take the most effort to service or satisfy and leave you for the next lower price.” — John M. Henry, Owner, Speedway Press, Mitchell Printing, Phoenix Press, Oswego “I’m going to answer this question by turning it around and giving my own advice that is, ‘Always treat every customer as if they were your only customer!’ We are celebrating our 50th anniversary in business this year. We started our business on March 25, 1976. My advice works.”” — Nick Chervinsky, President, Brewerton Pharmacy, Brewerton “’You need to toot your own horn, my grandfather, Howard D. Dice, told me.” — Beth Ann Dice, Women’s active aging and cancer recovery coach, Mission Movement Wellness Studio & Breast Cancer Recovery Studio, Fulton “In the micro enterprise class, they taught, ‘Get a good lawyer, accountant and bank.’ That was over 30 years ago and I still have those three today. I chose good people I could grow with.” — Tony Pauldine, Owner, Anthony M. Pauldine General Contractors Inc., Oswego “From my grandfather; ‘Listen to everyone! You never know where you will get the solution you need.’” — Kevin Dean, Executive director, Oswego County Opportunities, Fulton “‘Preparation is the mother of success.’ My dad always drilled that into my head growing up, and it has helped me avoid a lot of snags in both my personal and professional life. Thanks, Dad!” — Bekkah Frisch, Owner and president, iHeart Holdings, Inc., Fulton “If you don’t take a risk and try, you will never know.” — Justin Taber, Owner, Torbitt’s Service Center, Oswego “Be ready to take a loss.” — Cody Seymour, Manager, Damiano’s Eatery, Mexico “I’ve received so much good business advice over the years. When people are giving you advice, always be curious rather than judgmental. Follow your gut. Doing the right thing is never the wrong thing.” — Dana Decker, Principal owner/broker, Berkshire Hathaway Home Services, Oswego ’Do it and figure it out later.’ It hasn’t failed me yet. Too many people take time to think about doing this and this and this and then the opportunity is over with. If it’s somewhat reasonable — if it’s not something outrageous — do it and figure it out later.” — Jeremy Allen, Licensed real estate salesperson, Acropolis Realty Group, Syracuse “’Try to meet the needs of the customer. Treat them like you’d like to be treated.’ It’s like the Golden Rule says.” — Douglas Dickson, Physician and associate at CNY Foot Surgery and Podiatry Care, East Syracuse “The best piece of business advice I’ve ever received applies to life in general: always be honest. Never overstate your capabilities and always be willing to ask questions. The more specific you can be in any given topic will always lead to a better outcome.” — Tom Fernandez, President, Woodbine Hospitality, Syracuse “As a business owner, the advice would be ‘Don’t overextend yourself. Especially in agriculture, expect issues to come up.’ If something is going right, it’s not true agriculture. This last season, we scaled very hard to field another crew. We got more drones, crew and generators based on projections. This last season hit the ag community hard with a very wet spring. We did 15,000 to 20,000 acres for fungicide and the same for cover crop seeding in 2024. We scaled to 25,000 to 30,000 for 2025. We ended up doing 2,000 for fungicide and 3,000 for cover crop seeding. That’s why that advice was good.” — Rick Jordan, Operations manager, CNY Drove Services, Clinton “’Keep your head down, mind your own business and do the best for your clients that you can do.’ It has a lot to do with my success in working for Galloway Century 21.” — Ed Fayette, New York state licensed real estate agent, Century 21 Galloway, Oswego “’Expand in all ways, always.’ It just keeps you going and keeps you growing.” — Stephen Baier, Licensed real estate person, The Real Estate Agency & Bouck Commercial, Auburn “The best advice is, ‘Your biggest asset you won’t see on the books because it comes from your employees.’” — David Flickinger, Owner, Edible Arrangements, Syracuse “Don’t take things personally when you’re working with the public.” — Leeann Desimone, Manager, Annie’s Hallmark Shop, Auburn “‘Follow up.’ The customer knows that you care about what you are doing and that their opinion counts. Sometimes they might be on the fence about whether they want to use your company. If they’re asking your opinion on things, they feel you are concerned about what you’re doing. They like to be kept in the loop if they’re spending money with you.” — Dorothy Casper, Saslesperson, SweetWoods Memorials, Phoenix “The best business advice I received is ‘Never be the smartest person in the room. Surround yourself with people who are smarter than you.’ That’s how you learn.” — Debbie Bilello, Owner, Virtual Office Solutions, Central Square “’You need to grow your business but you can’t grow too big too fast.’ That’s what we’ve done at Pinnacle Maintenance. We’ve tried to grow but not too fast. Along those same lines, there’s another good piece of advice, ‘Don’t take on more than you can handle because it only leads to a bad name for your business and a bad experience for your customers.’ It goes along the same lines as growing your business slowly and carefully.” — David Wines, Owner, Pinnacle Maintenance, Central Square “Always be on time and do what you say you are going to do.’ I’ve done very well following that advice. Most of my work is referral and I don’t really do any advertising so I have a pretty good customer base. It’s mostly word-of-mouth from satisfied customers.” — Robert J. Fleming, Owner, Bob Fleming Windows & Doors, Brewerton “’Concentrate on your finances, always pay your taxes, and form a team you can depend on. Try to help the community you’re in as much as you can.’ We do all of these all the time here. We give and give and give to the community and the community gives back to us always.” — Susan Bonnet, Co-owner, Bonnet Sales and Service, Central Square “Keep smiling. It brings a positive attitude to the workplace.” — Karin Lindsley, Vice president, DTS Truck Service, Syracuse “‘Customer service above all.’ Following this advice has served us very well.’ — Guy Fox, Owner, Fox’s Discount Parts, West Monroe “The best thing to do is to make sure you’re taking in more money than you’re spending. I wish I could say I’m a good businessman but I have been in business since 1981. I’m not a bean counter but work well with my hands and its’s served me well all these years and I am still in business.” — Matt McGill, Owner, Matt McGill Collision, Brewerton
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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