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Where to invest as markets rally on Strait of Hormuz reopening
The stock market was in party mode on Friday as Iran announced it was ending its weekslong blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Here's where to invest.
Texas woman moving to Spain AI codes furniture marketplace
Johanna Abzug tried selling her furniture on Facebook Marketplace, but said buyers were "uncommitted." She decided to vibe code her own platform.
Stocks are soaring. But the Iran war’s economic damage is far from over.
The surge in optimism contrasts starkly with continued energy supply challenges that threaten long-lasting economic harm — and a market reckoning.
Amherst Sustainability Festival: A Day of Family Fun, Education, and Entertainment
Mark your calendars for the 14th Annual Amherst Sustainability Festival, taking place on Saturday, April 25 from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. on the Amherst Town Common. Coinciding with the regularly scheduled Amherst Farmer’s Market, this free and family friendly event brings together local farmers, environmental vendors, advocacy groups, live entertainment, hands-on demonstrations, sustainable crafts, and much more. “The Amherst Sustainability Festival has become a beloved event
Former Ohio Rep. Brad Wenstrup launches new health care advocacy coalition
Wenstrup said the coalition will lobby for policies that improve patient access, protect U.S. innovation and preserve free and fair markets.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Big Utility Business Could Be Worth Close to $100 Billion
It would probably be a top five utility in the country by market value if it were publicly traded.
Scott Gaudin: Business owners don’t need a bank. They need a banker.
There is no shortage of banks—there are more than 4,500 nationwide. There is no shortage of products, platforms or capital in the market today. On paper, business owners have more options than ever before. And yet, many still feel like they are making important decisions alone. That is the problem. Business owners do not need […]
Iron Galaxy lays off employees as it reduces company size
Co-development and porting firm Iron Galaxy Studios is adopting 'a new posture to accept these current market conditions as permanent.'
Sphere Entertainment in talks to build venue at Nashville East Bank scrapyard
Sphere Entertainment Company recently entered into conversations with the owners of Nashville’s East Bank scrapyard property about developing a potential venue, according to people familiar with the discussions. Axios reported last month that representatives tied to the Las Vegas Sphere had been in discussions with Nashville executives about bringing a smaller version of the high-tech concert venue to the market. A spokesperson for the scrapyard ownership group declined to comment, and Sphere Entertainment did not respond to a request for comment. More discussions occurred as recently as the past two weeks, the Nashville Business Journal reported, though the status of […]
Location-Based Entertainment Market Analysis Report 2026: $14.35 Bn Opportunities, Trends, Competitive Landscape, Strategies, and Forecasts, 2020-2025, 2025-2030F, 2035F
The location-based entertainment market offers opportunities in themed venues, digital gaming experiences, immersive VR/AR attractions, and interactive content. Growth is driven by rising consumer spending, technological innovations, and increased global tourism, with Asia-Pacific poised for rapid expansion. Location-Based Entertainment Market Location-Based Entertainment Market Dublin, April 17, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Location-Based Entertainment Market Report 2026" has been added to Res
Faneuil Hall needs 'a shot of adrenaline,' its businesses say – and they want to be part of the plan
As Mayor Wu touts plans to make the marketplace the next catalyst for downtown growth, business owners there say they want a seat at the table.
Stock market today: Indexes hit records after Iran says Hormuz is open
US stocks surged and oil prices plunged after Iran announced the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open," removing a key overhang for markets.
The return of power politics to the market: theory and practice of the geoeconomic zeitenwende
Descriptions, explanations, and recommendations regarding foreign policy as well as foreign trade policy increasingly refer to the concept of geoeconomics. In fact, the use of economic and technological measures in foreign policy practice is becoming more frequent and intensive, especially in those countries that have the necessary resources of power at their disposal, such as […]
Sports Illustrated Resorts brand expands to Louisiana college town
Developers will convert a Hilton hotel in Baton Rouge under the lifestyle brand amid Sports Illustrated Resorts’ expansion into premier sports-driven college and university markets.
Ex-Goldman Analyst Jeff Currie Is Getting Into the Oil Business
Jeff Currie, the one-time Goldman Sachs Group Inc. commodities strategist known for shaping investor views on energy markets, has co-founded an oil and gas company.
Jardines and CK Hutchison pursue Hong Kong supermarket megadeal, FT reports
Hong Kong-based Jardines is in talks with CK Hutchison to buy its supermarket division, which trades as ParknShop, and merge it with Wellcome, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
Apple Marketing Chief for Watch, AirPods, Home and Health Retires
Apple Inc.’s marketing executive in charge of the Apple Watch, AirPods, health and smart home initiatives said he’s retiring, marking a changing of the guard for a series of key product lines.
Seaport Entertainment Group Announces First Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call
NEW YORK, April 16, 2026--Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. (NYSE: SEG) ("Seaport Entertainment Group," "SEG" or the "Company") today announced it will release its first quarter 2026 operating and financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The Company will host a conference call and audio webcast to discuss the results on Thursday, May 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
Small business owner travels from SA to California as official vendor for Karol G pop-up event
Around her birthday, the woman behind San Antonio boutique Chasing Camila learned that she’d been selected as an official vendor at Karol G’s “Bichota” Flea Market — a pop-up event in California during Coachella.
Protecting kids from deceptive and unsubstantiated health claims: the FTC’s case against TruHeight
Parents and kids (like all consumers) need clear, truthful information to make informed decisions — especially when those decisions affect their children’s health and physical safety. With that in mind, the FTC is working to protect kids and teens from deceptive health claims. Take the Agency’s recent case: the FTC charged Vanilla Chip LLC, which does business as TruHeight, with using unsubstantiated health claims and fake or incentivized reviews to market its supplements to kids, teenagers, and caregivers.
How AI Video Marketing Can Help Generate Visibility for Small Businesses in 2026
Uncover how AI video marketing acts as a visibility generator for small businesses in 2026. Explore AI video generator tools for effective marketing videos.
Read what Disney's brand chief said about marketing layoffs
Disney laid off employees this week across the company, including its marketing group. Read the memo from Disney brand chief Asad Ayaz.
Flutter Entertainment Stock (FLUT) Opinions on Citi Downgrade
Citi Downgrade Triggers Alarm: Social media erupted today after Citigroup double-downgraded Flutter Entertainment to sell, citing mounting U.S. business risks for its FanDuel unit. Users dissected concerns over slowing growth, intensifying competition, and potential regulatory hurdles. The stock tumbled in premarket trading amid the fresh bearish call.Profitability Doubts Mount: Conversations highlighted slashed EBITDA forecasts and reduced buyba
USC hospitality students learn the business of beer, launch their own brewery brand
Hospitality students at the University of South Carolina are learning how to brew, market and distribute their own beer.
[DEF 14A] Flutter Entertainment plc Definitive Proxy Statement
Stock Titan provides an ultra-fast stock market news feed and multiple tools for traders and investors.
College of Business team places third nationally in AMA Collegiate Case Competition
University of Nevada, Reno College of Business students placed third nationally in the AMA Collegiate Case Competition after presenting a Major League Baseball marketing strategy.
Ohio readies $5M fine against Kalshi for unlicensed sports betting: Capitol Letter
The prediction market operator is waging a multistate battle over whether its sports offerings should be treated as state-regulated gambling or federally regulated financial swaps.
EXCLUSIVE - PlayStation's Fairgames is Also Preparing To Enter the Extraction Market
Haven Studios' upcoming multiplayer game, 'Fairgames', sounds like essentially just another extraction shooter.
Entertainment AR and VR System on a Chip (SoC) Market Outlook, 2026-2030 & 2035 - Apple, Samsung Electronics, and Meta Platforms Lead the $3.8 Billion Industry
The market is poised for growth driven by immersive gaming demand, expanding mixed reality applications, and AR adoption Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Dublin, April 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The "Entertainment Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) System on a Chip (SoC) Market Report 2026" has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's
UK could face gaps on supermarket shelves by summer if Iran war continues
Ministers drawing up contingency plans for ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ if supply of CO2 is disrupted
Contingency plans in place for possible food shortages if Iran war continues, minister confirms
Peter Kyle did not dispute Times’ report that under a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ supermarkets might start running out of some items
Markets are correctly perceiving that politics will steer rate policy, says CIO
Rich Weiss, CIO of Multi-Asset Strategies at American Century Investments, says that markets are correctly predicting that politics will triumph over economics in pressuring the Fed to cut rates.
Goldman Sachs rates business hit by Iran war volatility, sources say
Goldman Sachs' rates business suffered losses on some positions towards the end of the last quarter as fixed-income market volatility due to the Iran war forced it to hold on to certain positions as a market maker, two people familiar with the matter said.
The value of free health insurance: Evidence from Mexico’s Seguro Popular
Expanding free health insurance is central to universal health coverage, but its impact depends on how households value it. This column examines Mexico’s Seguro Popular and shows that households value the programme less than its fiscal cost. This helps explain why its effects on labour markets were modest and suggests that overall welfare gains may be smaller than often assumed, despite the programme’s large expansion in coverage.
Mark Mobius, 'Indiana Jones of emerging markets,' dies at 89
Mark Mobius, widely credited as a pioneer in emerging markets investing, died on Wednesday at the age of 89, according to a statement on his LinkedIn page.
Houston small business owners blindsided by sudden Painted Tree Boutiques closure
Hundreds of Houston-area small business owners are scrambling after Painted Tree Boutiques, an indoor marketplace with six locations across the Houston area, abruptly shut down all of its stores nationwide with little to no warning.
Marketing Daily - Top of the News: Brands Blur Lines Between Ads, Entertainment
Peloton has tapped "Heated Rivalry" actor Hudson Williams for a campaign that "Glamour " says borders on NSFW, thanks to the actor's "very short shorts."
Amazon buys former Hermon drive-in
Tax records show the approximately 20-acre property was purchased by Amazon for $1.9 million, more than three times the fair market value. Amazon has already opened a shipping hub in Caribou, with plans for more in Gorham and Waterville.
Vivo X300 Ultra goes global with insane videography capabilities
After a Chinese launch, the Vivo X300 Ultra is now officially available in global markets with a slew of videography-focused...
Baylor Scott & White Health Plan to exit Texas Medicaid managed care in 2026, end individual marketplace plans
Baylor Scott & White Health Plan (BSWHP) says it plans to leave the Texas Medicaid Managed Care Program and stop offering individual marketplace coverage in 2026.
Trump Mobile Drops Trashy Update on New Phone
Still no word on when exactly the garish device is supposed to hit the market, almost a year after the company’s launch.
Baylor Scott & White Health Plan will no longer carry Medicaid and marketplace insurance plans
Prediction markets on track for $1 trillion by 2030, but sports betting stirs legal storm
Bernstein sees prediction market trading volume hitting $1 trillion by 2030, but an ongoing legal fight over sports event contracts could test that outlook.
Nas.com secures $27M to aid solo entrepreneurs with AI tools
Nuseir Yassin's startup, Nas.com, uses AI tools to help entrepreneurs with a range of business functions like marketing and storefront design.
Playtech opens worldwide sportsbook network to Inspired virtual games
Cloud-hosted integration gives Playtech operators access to Inspired’s licensed and U.S. sports content, widening distribution across regulated markets.
Inspired Entertainment Expands Global Reach Through SaaS Distribution Agreement for Virtual Sports with Playtech
NEW YORK, April 15, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Inspired Entertainment, Inc. (“Inspired” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: INSE), a leading provider of B2B gaming content and systems, today announced a new SaaS distribution agreement with Playtech (LSE: PTEC), one of the world’s leading gambling technology companies. Under the agreement, Inspired’s Virtual Sports portfolio, including its market-leading licensed content and U.S. sports offerings, will be distributed via Playtech’s Sportsbook platform to op
Ohio regulators seek to fine Kalshi $5M for unlicensed sports gambling
COLUMBUS — Online prediction market platform Kalshi is facing a $5 million fine for operating an unlicensed sports gambling business in Ohio. The Ohio ...
Rainier, University of Oklahoma Foundation to Build $1.1B Rock Creek Entertainment District in Norman
NORMAN, OKLA. — Rainier Development Co. has executed a master development agreement with the University of Oklahoma Foundation for the planned Rock Creek Entertainment District, a $1.1 billion project in Norman. Rainier will lead planning, design, coordination and development of the 269-acre district in collaboration with Cleveland County, the City of Norman, the University of Oklahoma, community stakeholders and other development partners. Rock Creek Entertainment District is envisioned as a year-round destination that will include an 8,000-seat performance venue designed to host concerts, conventions and community events, as well as University of Oklahoma men’s and women’s basketball games and women’s gymnastics events. Plans for Phase I of Rock Creek include the performance venue; a central outdoor plaza; approximately 140,000 square feet of retail, dining and entertainment experiences; roughly 250 multifamily units; and a structured parking garage with 1,200 spaces. Phased openings of the venue, restaurants and retail are expected to begin in 2028. Phase II will include approximately 180,000 square feet of office space and a 150-room hotel. Phase III calls for 500 additional multifamily units, as well as townhomes and single-family residences. Future phases are anticipated to include additional expansion, subject to market conditions and planning. The project, located…
Valvoline reveals its FIFA World Cup marketing playbook
Valvoline, an official FIFA World Cup 26 "supporter," is preparing to launch its largest-ever marketing push.
MrBeast is seeking his first CMO to help build an entertainment giant
MrBeast's Beast Industries has been on a hiring spree lately and is now looking for a top marketer to expand its entertainment and product lines.
UBS chairman says key business decisions may soon become unavoidable
Key business decisions may soon become unavoidable, UBS Chairman Colm Kelleher said on Wednesday, turning up the volume on a tense debate about proposed Swiss capital requirements that has triggered growing pressure from markets and shareholders.
New homeowner penalty is making it a terrible time to buy a first home
Soaring housing costs have put recent homebuyers at a steep disadvantage. The effects could warp America's real estate market for decades.
Stock markets recovering Iran war losses amid peace deal hopes; Reeves and Bessent to meet at IMF
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
Gary Gensler Paved the Way for Prediction Markets. Sports Betting Wasn’t Part of the Plan.
Kalshi and Polymarket say their sports bets are allowed under federal law. States argue otherwise. The designer of the law is weighing in.
Sony Xperia 1 VIII: Launch details of Sony's new flagship phone surface in the wild
A new leak has now revealed some more information on what to expect from Sony's upcoming flagship smartphone. The Xperia 1 VIII will succeed last year's Xperia VII and could be scheduled to debut on the global market shortly.
American sports fans leave the global spectacle to everyone else
US sports travelers are equally willing to travel for regular season and playoff matches (41% each), outpacing worldwide fans by double digits on both. However, they trail global travelers by 18 points on major single-sport international events (21% vs. 39%), according to a December 2025 survey from YouGov.
BSW's insurance wing is dropping Medicaid, marketplace health plans
Baylor Scott & White Health Plan will soon drop its Medicaid and individual marketplace plans, impacting 225,000 Texans.
Ohio Casino Control Commission fines Kalshi prediction market
Prediction market Kalshi is facing a fine from the Ohio Casino Control Commission for unlicensed sports gaming.
Cattle futures up ahead of direct business
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, live and feeder cattle were higher, ahead of the week’s direct business and taking into consideration the tight supply of ready numbers. June live cattle closed $2.90 higher at $251.42 and August live cattle closed $2.07 higher at $246.52. May feeder cattle closed $2.02 higher at $374.85 and August feeder […]
Anta Sports: Sporting Goods in China Remains a Challenge
A delay in the recovery of confidence among the Chinese mass-market base fuels the challenges in the sporting goods category, impacting Anta and Nike.
WATCH LIVE: CFTC chairman testifies before House panel amid scrutiny of prediction markets
You can order your own bloodwork now. Interpreting the results is another story
Firms like Function Health and Oura market regular blood tests to people wanting to take their health into their own hands. The process often raises more questions for patients than it can answer.
Eastern Market hosts All Things Detroit Day, helping small business owners
Sheds 3 and 5 hosted independent entrepreneurs Sunday, allowing them to showcase their businesses for an event called All Things Detroit Day.
Here’s Why JDP Capital Management Exited Its Position in Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
JDP Capital Management, an investment management company, released its “Survivor & Thriver Fund” first-quarter 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the first quarter, the fund declined 15.1% net to investors compared to the S&P 500’s -4.3% return. Concerns about AI destruction fears and consumer softness impacted market sentiment in […]
Later More Than Doubles Enterprise Business as Influencer Marketing Becomes a Performance Channel
/PRNewswire/ -- Later, the enterprise standard for influencer marketing and social commerce, today announces record performance milestones for Q1 2026. Fueled...
NYSE Content Update: OpenLoop Health Debuts At-Home Sleep Apnea Test with 98% Accuracy
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) provides a daily pre-market update directly from the NYSE Trading Floor. Access today's NYSE Pre-market update for market insights before trading begins.
Inside Gaming: Strip room rates gradually increasing, analyst says
Plus, a temporary restraining order blocking the enforcement of Arizona gaming laws against prediction markets has been ordered in U.S. District Court in Arizona.
'New Estêvão'? Palmeiras gem on City Group's radar: details
Young forward Eduardo Conceição, just 16 years old, is drawing attention from the European market.In excellent form for Brazil at the South American Under-17 Championship, where he has already recor...
Inertia moves to commercialize one of the world’s most elaborate science experiments
Inertia has signed three agreements with the Lawrence Livermore National Lab, paving the way for the company to bring its pioneering fusion reactor to market.
Carbon removal project supports Maine’s blue economy, broader marine health
MIT researchers introduce a chemical-free approach to balancing ocean acidity that protects marine life and could have huge impact on the global aquaculture market.
PCC Community Markets will open a new Seattle location
The store, slated to open this fall, will be the Seattle-based food cooperative’s 17th store in Washington.
Masters action shows ongoing sports-betting growth of prediction markets
Sports books are in danger of taking a backseat to prediction markets.
LinkedIn enters AI training market, challenges startups
LinkedIn is launching an AI labor marketplace, offering up to $150 an hour for AI training, challenging startups like Mercor and Surge AI.
What to do if Amazon killed your Kindle
Amazon is dropping support for older Kindles. Jailbreak it, strip the DRM, and load DRM-free books from Tor, Haymarket, and Gutenberg.
Health Care Roundup: Market Talk
Find insight on GSK, Sigma Healthcare and more in the latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector.
Prediction markets have exploded. What can they tell us about Oregon’s hottest primary race?
The state of the Republican gubernatorial primary has been hard to divine, but gamblers have thoughts.
Grinnell College sports social media teams bring the game online
DJ Damazo, assistant men’s basketball coach, said that about three years ago, the basketball team didn’t have a social media page at all. “I thought we were missing out on a chance to market our program to other students at Grinnell and probably, more importantly, like recruits,” Damazo said. Damazo decided to find students to...
New Huawei Foldable Looks a Lot Like Apple's Rumored iPhone Fold
Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to feature a book-style form factor that's relatively uncommon in the foldables market, but Huawei's new Pura X Max appears to share a similar wide aspect ratio. Set to be released in China next week, Huawei's new device actually builds upon a design used by the original, smaller Pura X, which was marketed last year as an extra-wide flip phone.
Archer teams with ‘Mandalorian and Grogu’ for first entertainment deal
As the meat snacks marketer expands, it is collaborating with the “Star Wars” universe for a campaign spanning retail, digital, social and out-of-home.
Where to invest $10,000 right now amid Iran war volatility: 9 market pros
We bring you the latest in our series on how to invest $10,000, with nine Wall Street pros sounding off on where they'd park a chunk of cash right now.
Business Travel Market Expected to Reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 9.5%: Allied Market Research
Allied Market Research published a report, titled, "business travel Market by INDUSTRY (Government, Corporate), by SERVICE (Transportation, Food and Lodging, Recreation), by TRAVELER (Group, Solo): Global Opportunity Analysis and Industry Forecast, 2021-2031". According to the report the global business travel market, valued at USD 689.7 billion in 2021, is projected to reach USD 2,095.4 billion by 2031, expanding at a CAGR of 9.5% over the forecast period — more than tripling in size within a d
Washington Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports After Talks Collapse
The war in Iran has already strained supply chains and energy markets, and the US blockade threatens to destabilize global trade flows.
Scottish Association for Marine Science: Unlocking red seaweed for food flavor, color & hybrid proteins
Jim Cramer on D-Wave (QBTS): “Maybe the Science Project Works Out, But It Is More of a Science Project”
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE:QBTS) is among the stocks Jim Cramer discussed alongside the tech market divide. A caller asked if Cramer thinks companies like D-Wave Quantum are positioned to rebound. In response, Cramer commented: Well, I think it’s more of a, candidly, it’s more of a science project, which I don’t mean, you know, look, […]
All Things Detroit Day draws shoppers, celebrates small businesses at Eastern Market
The Sheds at Eastern Market were buzzing Sunday as shoppers poured in for All Things Detroit Day, an annual celebration of local small businesses featuring more than 100 vendors offering everything from apparel to food.
Donald Trump's Incompetence Is Costing Him the Country: Commentary
Donald Trump has led us to chaos — war with Iran, spiking gas prices, unstable markets — that may lose him the Republican party and the nation.
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
Cowboys news: Dallas could still hit the veteran trade market
Your Sunday morning Cowboys news.
EDITORIAL: Business HQs decamp from Colorado
Grim news last week: For the first time since the pandemic, Colorado’s job market lost 11,700 jobs — contracting at an annual rate of -0.4%. The Centennial State is among 27 states with year-over-year job losses, but a new report from the Colorado Chamber Foundation indicates Colorado-specific trends are at play. And they’re making things […]
iPhone Fold’s Crease-Less Display Longevity Claims Will Be Scrutinized As OPPO Find N6’s Real-World Use Exposes Its Exaggerated Marketing
An OPPO Find N6 owner exposes the device’s false crease-less claims after a month of use, bringing pressure on Apple and its iPhone Fold
Small business marketplace opens up in Warren
Helping bring communities that are drifting apart back together. That was the push behind the launch of Hands and Heart United’s spring market Saturday afternoon.
Seniors: Dennis Ouellette, 80
Ontario Orchards owner not slowing down as he grows his farm market By Stefan Yablonski The seeds for Dennis Ouellette’s career path were sown when he was 6 years old — and he isn’t slowing down. “Since age 6, I grew up an agriculturalist. That is 72 years. Started out with a 37-acre farm when I bought it from my parents and built it up to almost 300 acres. Brought it back down to around 200 acres now,” he said. The location of his business was just a barn, a horse barn, he said. “In 1967, it officially became Ontario Orchards Farm Market. My wife [June] and I graduated [high school] in 1964 and three years later we became Ontario Orchards. We have been here more than 60 years,” he explained. “It is the same location. We have expanded over the years as the customers mentioned different things; we have expanded to bring in different products. “What keeps me going is I totally enjoy what I am doing. I enjoy the people that I work with. The customers are wonderful. Mostly, more important than anything, is my family — my wife, my daughters, grandchildren, son-in-law — we are still very much a family business I’m not going to retire just yet.” He also enjoys the changing seasons. “Ontario Orchards is a four-season business. There is always something new; more energy, more interest. Not only for the business but for my staff, the people that work here. Things keep changing, changing. We are always looking forward to something new and exciting,” he said. They work with quite a number of local farmers within the area and throughout the state, throughout the country and from around the world.” “We do have things from different countries around the world. But specifically, we are very excited about the local. We have an over 200-acre farm. We sell just about everything we raise on that farm right here at the farm market. For example, we press cider year-round. We make baked goods every day, year-round. We sell our apples 12 months a year.” “Today, there are so many products in Ontario Orchards that we never would have thought of in 1967,” he continued. “I attribute a lot of that to my daughters. I like the young blood and new energy. That is very crucial to a business, it keeps it vibrant.” What’s his favorite part of the job? “I don’t have a favorite part. I enjoy it all. I have a lot of intertest in other things,” he said. “I have staff that knows so much. I can go to the staff and say, ‘I don’t know what this is, you tell me what this is.’ They are so knowledgeable. It is impossible for one person to know everything in this place. In the summer, staff is about 60; in the winter about 20, 25.” He added that he plans on being around for several more years.
Seniors: Carol Watson, 72
Owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping in LaFayette enjoys her growing business — still puts in six-, seven-day weeks By Mary Beth Roach Carol Watson, the owner of Carol Watson Greenhouse and Landscaping, has been in gardens since she could walk. Literally. She said she learned to walk in her grandfather’s garden, which was next door to her current home and business in LaFayette. Today, at 72, she is running the business that her mother, Claire, opened in 1981 as Watson Greenhouse. Watson worked part-time for her mom until 1990, when she joined her full time. While she may not have had any formal horticultural experience, she said she learned so much about growing and raising plants from her mom, who had an abundance of energy and talent. Now, after 35 years in the business full time, Watson has no plans to retire, although she joked that she’d like a couple of days off a week. On her seven-acre site, complete with four greenhouses, Watson said her favorite parts of the job are working with and educating her customers; helping some of her young customers build terrariums; conducting occasional class field trips; and supporting local art by decorating the shop with an eclectic mix of pottery from at least four area craftspeople. A one-time employee of the former Dey Bros. department store in Syracuse, Watson said she loves merchandising and enjoys displaying unique pieces of art on shelves and even suspending from ceilings. “We’re creative. We also had top quality plants. We got a reputation of quality plants and unusual products,” she said. It’s tending to her customers and her plants, showcasing the unusual products, and hosting special events to benefit the community that keep her motivated to work six to seven days a week. “I just love it. I love taking care of the plants. I’m one of the few people that really enjoys watering,” she said. And while she has cultivated a solid customer base over the years, she remains savvy in her marketing efforts to draw in new customers. For example, she does a gardening segment on CNY Central television; her active Facebook page has thousands of followers; and she hosts a number of unique events and classes that not only introduce her shop to potential new clients, but some benefit nonprofits as well. About 13 years ago, when the local symphony orchestra was struggling, she said she wanted to help. So, partnering with the group, she began offering concerts, called Soirees, featuring the Syracuse Orchestra’s string quartet. Following up on a suggestion from a customer whose brother is a deejay in retirement, specializing in sock hops, she hosted the greenhouse’s first sock hop. Plants got moved back toward the walls to make room for dancing; a caterer was brought in, offering diner-like food; guests came in period outfits; and proceeds went to the Food Bank of CNY. She is excited about doing it again in October. Via her website, she promotes the greenhouse as an “oasis in the snow,” offering visitors the opportunity to pick up some decorating and gift ideas while taking in the floral and citrus scents. And she also caters to her four-legged friends. Over this past winter, she said, she came up with a “brilliant idea,” although at the time she didn’t appreciate just how brilliant it would become. Feeling it too cold outside to take her dog for a walk, she opted to bring it into the greenhouse. And before long, she was inviting people to bring their dogs into the big greenhouse as well. She looks forward to extending that invitation again this upcoming winter season. For Watson and her customers, the greenhouse is always in season.
China's K-pop worries: The reasons why a ban on Korean entertainment has lasted a decade
As mega K-pop group BTS returns to the stage after a hiatus of more than three years, one major market is conspicuously missing from its 12-month world tour: China. The omission of one of the group's biggest fan bases comes as no surprise. In fact, just the opposite would have…
It’s Time To Forget About The MacBook Air
Apple’s MacBook Neo has disrupted the PC laptop market while leaving the MacBook market relatively intact. Is there value in Tim Cook disrupting the MacBook Air?
“AI polls” are fake polls
A few weeks after Donald Trump’s second presidential win, I took the train up from London (where I was living at the time) to Oxford to attend a conference on polls and forecasts of the 2024 election. Most of the attendees were pollsters or academics, but I also watched presentations from Aaru and Electric Twin, two companies that do what is interchangeably called synthetic sampling, silicon sampling, or synthetic audiences. Stripped of startup jargon, that means they use large language models (LLMs) to simulate responses to public opinion polls by having AI agents take on the role of survey respondents. I had already heard of Aaru thanks to some articles with eye-catching headlines like “No people, no problem: AI chatbots predict elections better than humans” in the months leading up to Election Day. The founders were making some big, some might even say far-fetched claims, such as: “within two years, we will simulate the entire globe — from the way crops are grown in Ukraine to how that impacts production of oil in Iraq, trade through the strait of Malacca, and elections for the mayor of Baltimore.” When Semafor asked Aaru’s cofounders — Cameron Fink and Ned Koh — about my boss, they said “we respect all those who came before us.” Nate (as he so often does) shared his thoughts on Twitter: Fink and Koh were relatively good-natured about this back-and-forth when we spoke at Oxford. They even offered to mail me one of the t-shirts featuring Nate’s quote they apparently had made. I never took them up on the offer, which I now somewhat regret. These synthetic sampling companies fell off my radar for a while, but they do still exist. In fact, Aaru recently received a $1 billion valuation. Is what they’re doing anywhere close to the most important frontier in AI development? Not by a longshot, especially when Anthropic just developed a model so adept at exploiting software vulnerabilities that it’s only being released to 40 companies. Still, silicon sampling is increasingly finding its way into public polling. Axios reported in March that “a majority of people trust their own doctors and nurses” based on findings from Aaru — without mentioning that the “people” in that sentence were actually LLMs. Around the same time, the Public Sentiment Institute “boosted” their online sample of 373 real survey respondents with 114 AI agents.1 (Spoiler alert: even the co-founder of Electric Twin doesn’t think that’s a particularly defensible approach.) Polling companies like Qualtrics and Ipsos are also developing synthetic data panels. So, what should we make of these … “polls”? Let’s get one thing out of the way: whatever they are, they’re not polls in the way that term is usually defined. Subscribe You can’t replace polls with AI On one hand, using LLMs to essentially make up fake survey respondents sort of sounds like the dumbest idea ever, one that will at best imperfectly replicate real polls while introducing all sorts of biases. On the other hand, with LLMs improving at a remarkable, perhaps even alarming rate, maybe that means I’m a dinosaur at the ripe old age of 24 because I still want to rely on polls that talk to actual people. I’m not going to argue that synthetic samples are completely useless. In fact, as I’ll return to later, there is evidence that some techniques can replicate topline survey results quickly and cheaply. But the marketing from certain companies can be slightly optimistic. “No traditional poll will exist by the time the next general election occurs,” said Fink in 2024. We’re just 206 days away from the midterms, and based on the fact that I still have to collect a bunch of polls every day, I’d say he should have run that prediction by a sample of AI agents before the interview.2 To see why synthetic samples can’t replace polls, here’s a quick primer on how they work. The simplest version of these models involves taking a LLM (like ChatGPT or Claude), giving it a demographic profile (e.g., a white, college-educated woman who lives in Utah and makes $70k a year), and then asking it to respond to a survey question. You repeat that process a few thousand times using different demographic profiles and end up with a sample of synthetic survey responses. The actual models used by private companies are more sophisticated than this, usually because they incorporate more hypothesized demographic characteristics for each agent and provide them with extra information. Aaru, for example, feeds agents a diet of news and information they’d be likely to consume, while Electric Twin incorporates their customers’ proprietary data about the audience they’re trying to replicate. The way Ben Warner, the co-founder of Electric Twin, explained it to me was “we have a large amount of data on […] for instance, 5,000 people. Can we make an accurate prediction of how they would respond to another question?” Still, it should be obvious why synthetic samples can’t replace polls. Polling is fundamentally a data collection process. We might use surveys to make predictions by feeding them into election forecasts, but the main purpose of a poll isn’t prediction, it’s gathering new data about what people think and how they feel. Silicon sampling, on the other hand, produces no new data. It’s simply a model: you input LLM training data, demographic prompts, and a bunch of other information, and it spits out a prediction for what a poll would say. We love models here, but models aren’t polls. That difference is an important philosophical sticking point for most pollsters I talk to. “I think politics should stay away from [synthetic sampling], because we’re trying to […] represent the voice of the people,” said Natalie Jackson, a vice president at GQR Insights. Democratic pollster John Hagner told me: “I think I’m just incredibly skeptical of this idea. I don’t think it’s research. At that point, you’re asking the machine to tell you what you already believe.” Hagner has seen some presentations of early synthetic sampling experiments, but so far, “if it’s being used in a campaign, people are keeping it incredibly quiet.”3 But Eli, I hear you saying, aren’t polls themselves increasingly governed by modeling decisions? Indeed they are: pollsters’ choices on which sampling method to use, how to define their likely voter models, and how to weight their samples can and do lead to dramatic differences in the results they publish. Aaru even referenced these limitations in the methodology statement included with that maternal mortality “poll” — although I’m using the term “methodology statement” loosely here, because it doesn’t really explain how the model works at all. We can ignore the (frankly preposterous) implication that synthetic sampling isn’t subject to a separate set of biases. The important point is that there’s still a meaningful difference between using weighting and other statistical techniques on actual polling data and using a model to predict what a poll would say. The latter is far closer to election forecasts or techniques like MRP — potentially useful models, but not a replacement for polls.4 To be fair, other synthetic sampling companies are perfectly happy with the distinction between polls and models. Warner compared polling and synthetic sampling to different tools in a toolbox. “The mistake I think we make is we think that these new tools should either work in exactly the same way or somehow replace these old tools,” he said. “Rather than thinking of it as, okay, so we’ve always had the hammer, we’ve always had the screwdriver, now we’ve got a saw. But don’t use a saw to try [to] do the job of a hammer.” A quick comment from Nate Eli didn’t ask me for a comment — rather rude of him, don’t you think? But since I’m editing this story, I figured I’d add a few quick thoughts rather than putting words in his mouth. Beyond the frequently misleading marketing, what bothers me about the AI “poll” hype is that as AI tools make statistical inference cheaper and/or better (note that these are not synonyms) that actually increases the comparative value of collecting original data. You might be able to train a model to make a reasonable estimate of what some hard-to-reach poll respondent would say — say, a young Black man who voted for Trump. (Such a person checks a number of boxes for a voter who is usually hard to reach in surveys.) Indeed, this is closely related to what models like the Silver Bulletin forecast already do. They essentially smooth out the kinks in noisy survey data by making inferences based on past voting patterns or national polls or surveys of other states. But you don’t actually know what these voters think unless you’re reaching them directly. If there’s a shift in opinion among this subgroup, you’re not going to detect it. So if I were running a campaign, I’d invest more in going the extra mile to find a representative sample of those voters. And then I’d hire some smart quants — or Claude? — to figure out the implications for campaign strategy based on proprietary data that my competitors didn’t have access to. -Nate Silver Are these models any good? If synthetic surveys are just a new type of model, the next obvious question is whether the models are at least accurate. The answer very much depends on who you ask. On one end of the spectrum, you have the maximalist argument that synthetic sampling is more accurate than actual polls. “It’s an incredibly challenging problem to go to someone and say ‘hey, we’re going to be more accurate at predicting human behavior than you, even when you talk to your customers directly’,” Koh recently told CNBC. In his view, synthetic sampling isn’t a saw to polling’s hammer, it’s “magic.” There’s certainly evidence that synthetic samples can replicate certain survey toplines. But if Aaru does have any examples of their approach outperforming the polls, they’re keeping those to themselves.5 Aaru’s 2024 election model, for example, had Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on November 4th. And although they’ve since taken down their forecast page, they gave Harris a 50.5 percent chance of winning the race on November 2nd.6 After the election, Fink told Semafor he was happy enough with those results because they were “within margin of error,” a term that is completely meaningless when applied to a “sample” of AI agents. And of course, Aaru says their models have improved since 2024, so supposedly now they’d be more accurate than the polls? Still, their stronger argument is on cost: “We are significantly faster and cheaper than traditional polling, and still more accurate,” said Fink. The first two claims are undeniably true, but the third brings us to the opposite end of the spectrum. Both Jackson and Hagner are skeptical that these models are reliable for anything beyond replicating common survey toplines. “I just […] don’t think the machines are what we want when we’re looking for nuanced views. My example on this is people in Arizona and Nevada in 2024 who voted for Trump and voted for expanding abortion in their states on ballot initiatives,” said Jackson. Hagner identified another issue. Maybe the synthetic respondents, like sycophantic LLMs, are inhuman in one important way: they’re too nice. “The reports that have come through at the meetings that I’ve been at are that the early experiments on this, they cannot get respondents to be as racist or sexist or, frankly, as negative as human respondents,” he said. Academic research mostly agrees on this point. While there are some papers that show promising results when using LLMs to replicate polling data, most show that LLMs suffer from various quirks like producing too few “don’t know” responses and can seriously overpredict the favorability of politicians like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. They also seem to struggle with too little variation between demographic subgroups, so the difference in predicted opinion between Democrats and Republicans, for example, is too small. When I asked Warner about these studies, his response to these papers was that just because academics can’t get synthetic sampling to work doesn’t mean that the technique doesn’t work in general. “Actually, the argument is, okay, yours does not [work]. That does not mean […] for this complex set of machinery, which uses a lot of investment, a lot of time, a lot of money, you can’t get it to work.” Cards on the table, I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument because academics aren’t exactly great at making election forecasts. Usually, the people with skin in the game are the most accurate. Warner’s argument is that the approach Electric Twin takes — which includes, for example, making multiple predictions for each synthetic respondent using different models and prompts and subsequently averaging those to get a final prediction in a sort of ensemble forecast — produces better results than the simpler academic models. Warner shared a comparison between his method and the method from a recent academic paper with me, and Electric Twin was indeed able to get more accurate replication. But even still, he acknowledged that synthetic sampling “is not a crystal ball.” “If you asked me, do I think using other data sources will be more accurate than asking somebody who they will vote for, I would probably say no. But if you asked me ‘would your system be useful for our turnout modeling today?’ I would say yes.” For better or worse, it looks like the method is already getting more popular in the market research world. Most of the clients Aaru touts these days are businesses like EY and McDonald’s. And AI will probably begin to pop up in other parts of the political polling process. Pollsters are already using it to code open-ended survey responses, and some firms, like YouGov, are testing using LLMs to ask survey respondents questions. More worryingly, one danger to actual polls is that AI agents can be used to infiltrate online surveys. Most online polls use various checks to prevent that from happening, but there’s conflicting evidence on how effective those filters are and how prevalent AI agents currently are in online panels. If those agents ever become impossible to detect, it might spell the end of online polling, but the solution isn’t to replace all of your respondents with ChatGPT. Silver Bulletin is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a subscriber. Subscribe 1 That particular poll obviously doesn’t meet Silver Bulletin standards for aggregation. But we exclude all Public Sentiment Institute polls from our averages because we classify them as an amateur polling firm. 2 You could argue that Fink meant the next presidential election, but (a) I’m also confident we’ll still have real polls in 2028 and (b) in that case he should have asked an LLM to define “general election.” 3 Quick caveat: that’s reporting from a Democratic pollster. It’s possible that Republicans are more willing to use AI in political campaigns. 4 Indeed, Silver Bulletin does not include “polls” produced by MRP in our forecasts or averages, and we think it’s extremely misleading when their practitioners describe them in a way that suggests original data had been collected among a large number of states or Congressional districts. 5 A recent report from Aaru and EY did show two examples of a synthetic estimate being closer than a survey to a real-world benchmark — but I’d take those findings with a grain of salt because the report reads more like an ad and didn’t involve any sort of prediction being made ahead of time. 6 For comparison, our odds for Harris on the same day were 48.2 percent.
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